Lower highs since Thursday; Friday range 156.31–157.16.
The Tuesday–Wednesday 157.84–158.60 range gave way in Thursday's Asia and London sessions, as risk-off and falling Treasury yields sent haven flows into JPY. The slide extended to a 156.08 five-week low early Friday after Japan's CPI before a sharp rebound. Friday has since ranged between the London-open friday high at 157.16 and a 156.31 higher low, set just before the US PMI beat lifted the dollar. Highs keep stepping down from Thursday's 157.36 (thu high), price is pinned at EMA(20) near 156.85, and RSI(14) sits mid-40s, so momentum has flattened rather than turned.
Support: 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.16, 157.36, 157.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above 157.16 and the lower-highs trendline would test the thu high at 157.36 and the 50% fib near 157.21
Reclaiming 157.36 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the old range floor at 157.84 back in play
Failure to hold the 156.31 higher low exposes the 156.08 five-week low
Tue Durable Goods, Fed decision Wed 28 Oct, Tokyo CPI and BoJ 29–30 Oct could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a contracting range · RSI 49 · price 156.856
Post-impulse pennant: lower highs since Thursday, higher low on Friday.
The week's dominant leg came from Thursday's Asia session into London. USD/JPY fell from the 158.20 pre-selloff area to a 5-week low at 156.08 in Friday Asia, as falling Treasury yields and risk-off haven demand favoured JPY. Since then, rebounds have printed successive lower highs at the 157.36 Thu high, 157.16 and the 157.08 lower high, while the 156.31 higher low held into NY hours after the US PMI beat steadied the dollar. Price is now pinned flat at the ema20 near 156.84, with RSI(14) neutral around 49 and still below EMA(50).
Support: 156.84, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.08, 157.36, 158.20
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.08 lower high and pennant top opens the 157.36 Thu high, near the 50% retracement
Failure to hold the 156.31 higher low re-exposes the 156.08 5-week low
Recovery through 157.36 would put the 158.20 pre-selloff area back in play and weaken the downtrend read
Weekend gap risk at Monday's Asian open, with US Durable Goods Tue, FOMC Wed and BoJ Fri all able to shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday; Friday compressing between 156.31 higher low and 157.16.
USD/JPY broke the 157.84 range floor of the Monday–Wednesday range during Thursday's Asia and London sessions, as risk-off and falling Treasury yields drove haven demand for JPY, and printed a 156.08 week low in Friday's Asian session. Friday then carved a higher low at 156.31, and the flash PMI beat lifted price back above EMA(20) during NY hours. The rebound stalled at 157.08, a third lower high beneath the 157.36 Thursday high and the 157.16 Friday high, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and price sitting just under the 38.2% fib of the 158.34–156.08 drop.
Support: 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.16, 157.36, 157.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.16 Friday high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 157.36 Thursday high, then the 157.84 range floor
Loss of ema20 and the 156.31 higher low puts the 156.08 week low back in focus
Next week's event risk: US durable goods on Tuesday, FOMC on Wednesday (hold expected, December-hike signal key), then Tokyo CPI and the BoJ decision
Mon–Wed range broke lower Thursday; lower highs above a Friday higher low.
The 157.83–158.60 range that held Monday to Wednesday gave way in Thursday's Asia-to-London session. Risk-off and falling Treasury yields drove haven yen demand, and the drop extended to a 156.08 5-week low in Friday's Asian range. Friday's rebound capped at the 157.16 friday high, just under the 50% retracement of the Thursday drop, below the 157.36 thu bounce. The 156.31 higher low printed during NY hours leaves price coiled around the 38.2% fib, holding above the ema20 near 156.82 with RSI(14) back at 50.
Support: 156.82, 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.16, 157.36, 157.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.16 friday high and the lower-highs line opens the 157.36 thu bounce, then a retest of the 157.83 range floor
Loss of the ema20 and a break of the 156.31 higher low would return focus to the 156.08 5-week low
Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, then Wed FOMC (hold at 4.00% expected) and Fri BoJ, could materially shift this read next week
Lower highs from 158.34 since Thursday's range break; Friday higher low at 156.31 above 156.08 week low.
Tuesday and Wednesday held a 157.84–158.39 range. Thursday's Asia-into-London session broke it decisively as risk-off and falling Treasury yields drove the yen bid, and the move extended to a 156.08 week low in Friday's Asia session. Since then price has rotated around ema20, with the 156.31 swing low printed ahead of NY and a rebound that coincided with the firm US flash PMIs. The bounce now sits at the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's sell-off near 156.94, just under the 157.00 round number, with RSI(14) back near 47 and price still below EMA(50).
Support: 156.31, 156.08
Resistance: 157.00, 157.16, 157.36
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.16 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 157.36 thu high back in view
Failure to hold the 156.31 swing low exposes the 156.08 week low and 156.00 psych support
Rejection at the 157.00 round number keeps the lower-high sequence intact into the Friday close
FOMC on Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC: a guidance-free hold could extend the downtrend, a December-hike signal could stall it
Tokyo CPI and the BoJ decision late next week are further JPY-side risk to this read
Pennant below 157.36 after break of the 157.83–158.60 range.
USD/JPY ranged 157.83–158.60 from Monday to Wednesday before Thursday's Asia session broke the floor, a 217-pip slide into Friday's 156.08 week low as falling Treasury yields and risk-off haven demand lifted the yen. Since then the pair has compressed into a pennant, with lower highs at the 157.36 thursday high and the 157.16 friday high (50% of the slide) against a higher low at 156.31 set in NY hours despite firm US PMI and Michigan prints. Price is pinned at EMA(20) near 156.82 with RSI(14) flat around 47, and an intraday cap at 156.95 is limiting the rebound.
Support: 156.31, 156.08, 155.50
Resistance: 156.95, 157.16, 157.36
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 157.16 friday high (50% fib) breaks the pennant and reopens the 157.36 thursday high
Loss of the 156.31 higher low exposes the 156.08 week low; below it, the 155.50 half figure is the next marked support
Weekend risk headlines and next week's FOMC (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) decisions could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 157.36 compressing against a 156.31 higher low.
After holding a 157.84–158.39 band through Wednesday, USD/JPY broke lower from Thursday's Asia session into London as falling Treasury yields and haven demand lifted the yen. The week low printed at 156.08 in Friday's Asia session after the in-line Japan CPI. Since then, rebounds have stalled at a lower high of 157.16 and then 156.96, below the 157 pivot and the 38.2% retrace of the leg from 158.34. A higher low at 156.31 into the London-NY transition was recovered through the flash PMI window, leaving price pinned just under the H1 EMA(20) near 156.84 with RSI(14) flat around 51.
Support: 156.309
Resistance: 156.84, 157.159
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.16 lower high and the 157 pivot breaks the lower-high line and the downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 156.31 higher low reopens the 156.08 week low and the 156.00 round figure
Sustained closes back above the ema20 at 156.84 would mark the first shift in the consolidation
UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (f/c 4.7%) could materially shift this read
FOMC on Oct 28 and BoJ on Oct 30 next week are the main event risk for the structure
Mon–Wed range broken lower; lower highs since Thursday.
The Monday–Wednesday 157.83–158.60 range broke in Thursday's Asia-into-London session as risk-off flows and falling US yields drove a haven yen bid. The selling extended to a 156.08 week low in early Friday Asia trade. The rebound stalled at the 157.16 Friday high, just short of the 50% retracement of the 158.34–156.08 leg. Lower highs at the 157.36 Thursday high, 157.16 and 156.96 have kept price below EMA(20). Selling ahead of the NY open has taken price back to the 156.31 session low, with RSI(14) in the low 40s and not yet showing divergence.
Support: 156.31, 156.08, 155.50
Resistance: 156.96, 157.16, 157.36
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.08 week low and the 156.00 round number exposes 155.50
An H1 close above the 156.96 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs
A reclaim of the 157.16 Friday high and the 157.00 pivot would put Thursday's 157.36 high and the 50% fib back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday; range break Thursday, compression Friday.
Monday to Wednesday held a 157.84–158.60 range with a series of lower highs. Thursday's Asia and London sessions broke the range floor as risk-off sent flows into JPY, and Friday's Asia session extended to the 156.08 week low after Japan's core CPI firmed. The rebound has stalled below the 157.16 friday high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of Thursday's leg, and price is now pinned at EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 49, compressing between the 156.55 swing low and the lower-highs line.
Support: 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 157.16, 157.35, 157.84
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 157.16 friday high and the lower-highs line opens the 50% fib near 157.21 and the 157.35 thu high
Failure to hold the 156.55 swing low and the Friday higher-lows line exposes the 156.08 week low and 156.00
Reclaim of the 157.84 range floor would negate Thursday's range break
Range break lower, lower high at 157.16 after 156.08 week low.
USDJPY held a 157.83–158.60 range Monday through Wednesday, then broke the range floor in Thursday's Asia session. It slid to a 156.08 week low in Friday Asia as equity risk-off, falling UST yields and firm Japan core CPI drew haven demand into JPY. The rebound stalled at 157.16, a lower high sitting at the 50% retracement of the 158.25–156.08 leg, and London selling pushed back to the 156.55 london low before a modest bounce. Price now sits just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 47, below the 157.36 thu ny high.
Support: 156.547
Resistance: 157.159, 157.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.16 lower high, then the 157.36 thu ny high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 156.55 london low exposes the 156.08 week low
Recovery back above the 157.83 range floor would negate the range break
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs after Thursday's range break · RSI 42 · price 156.609
Lower highs at 157.35 and 157.16 below the broken 157.84 range low.
The 157.84–158.60 range held from Monday to Wednesday, then gave way on Thursday. Risk-off and falling US yields drove a break below 157 through Asia and London, and Tokyo's above-target CPI extended the slide to the 156.08 week low early Friday. The rebound stalled at 157.16 in early London, a lower high just short of the 50% retracement of the Wed high–week low fib, and price has since slipped back under the ema20 at 156.84 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 156.55, 156.08
Resistance: 156.84, 157.16, 157.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.16 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and brings the 50% fib near 157.21 into view
Failure to hold the 156.55 session low exposes the 156.08 week low and the 156.00 round number
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the 157.84 range low would negate Thursday's range break
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact after Thursday's range break · RSI 43 · price 156.772
Mon–Wed 157.84–158.60 range broken; lower highs at 157.36 and 157.16 above a 156.08 week low.
Monday to Wednesday held a 157.84–158.60 range before Thursday's Asia and London sessions broke the range floor. Risk-off yen demand and falling US yields drove that leg to the 156.69 Thu low, and the post-CPI drop early Friday printed a 156.08 week low. The rebound stalled at the 157.16 Fri high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 158.34–156.08 leg. Price has slipped back under the ema20 near 156.86 in London, leaving the lower-highs trendline intact.
Support: 156.69, 156.08
Resistance: 156.86, 157.16, 157.84
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
H1 close above the 157.16 Fri high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 50% fib near 157.21 in play
Failure to hold the 156.69 Thu low exposes the 156.08 week low
Recovery back above the 157.84 range floor would neutralise Thursday's range break
BoJ (Oct 30) and Fed decisions next week remain the dominant catalysts beyond this window
Mon–Wed range broken lower; lower highs, rebound capped at 50% fib.
USDJPY held a 157.84–158.60 range from Monday to Wednesday, then broke the range floor from Asia into London open Thursday as the AI-linked equity selloff and lower US yields drove haven JPY demand. The NY bounce left a lower high at 157.35. Firm Japan core-core CPI pushed the pair to a 156.08 week low in Friday's Asian session. The rebound since then stalled at 157.16, the 50% fib of Thursday's impulse, and price is now pinned around a flat EMA(20) near 156.90 with RSI(14) back to mid-40s from oversold.
Support: 156.82, 156.69, 156.08
Resistance: 157.16, 157.35, 157.84
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.35 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and would point to a false break of 157
Failure to hold the 156.82 pullback low exposes the 156.69 thu low and then the 156.08 week low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A return above the 157.84 range floor would neutralise Thursday's breakdown
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; range floor broken Thursday.
USD/JPY broke the 157.83 range floor in Thursday's Asia session as risk-off and BoJ hike bets lifted the yen. The slide ran through London to the 156.69 thu low, and the above-target national CPI print then dragged the pair to a 156.075 week low early in Friday's Asia session. Highs have stepped lower from Tuesday's 158.60 through the 157.355 thu ny high, and the Asian rebound is stalling at the 157.16 asia high, near the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline. Price sits just above a flattening EMA(20) at 156.99, below EMA(50), with RSI(14) around 52.
Support: 156.99, 156.69, 156.075
Resistance: 157.16, 157.355, 157.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.355 thu ny high (near the 50% retracement) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Repeated rejection at the 157.16 asia high and the lower-highs line keeps the downtrend intact
Loss of the ema20 and the 156.69 thu low reopens the 156.075 week low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A return above the 157.83 range floor would turn Thursday's break into a false break
Range break Thursday, lower highs and lower lows since.
USD/JPY held a 157.83–158.60 range from Monday to Wednesday. It broke the range floor from Thursday's Asia session into London open as risk-off and BoJ hike bets lifted the yen, and each bounce since has formed a lower high. Friday's Asian dip to the 156.08 week low, after above-target Japan CPI, was rejected quickly with RSI(14) holding a higher low, a bullish divergence. The rebound then stalled at the 157.12 Asia high near the 38.2% fib, and price now sits just below EMA(20) around 156.96 with the Thursday NY low at 156.75 underneath.
Support: 156.75
Resistance: 157.123, 157.355, 157.825
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and Michigan sentiment (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read via US yields
H1 close above the 157.35 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the lower highs trendline
Reclaim of the 157.83 range floor would undercut the range break read
Failure to hold the 156.75 Thursday NY low exposes the 156.08 week low; a close below confirms a fresh lower low
Range break lower Thursday, lower highs intact below former range floor.
From Monday to Wednesday the pair held a box between the 157.83 range floor and 158.60. It broke lower in Thursday's Tokyo session and extended through the London open as AI-led risk-off and softer US yields sent haven demand into JPY. Friday's dip around Tokyo CPI set a 156.08 week low, a lower low on closes with RSI(14) holding higher, which forms a bullish RSI divergence. The rebound has stalled at the 157.12 Asia high just under the 50% fib, with price sitting on EMA(20) near 156.98 and the lower-highs line from Thursday's NY bounce, along with the EMA50 at 157.36, capping above.
Support: 156.98, 156.75, 156.08
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.12 Asia high and the lower-highs line puts the EMA50 at 157.36 and the 61.8% fib near 157.42 in play
Reclaim of the 157.83 range floor would turn Thursday's break into a false break
Loss of EMA20 and the 156.75 Thu NY low reopens the 156.08 week low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; BoJ on Oct 30 is the larger risk next week
Lower highs since Wednesday; Mon–Wed range floor broken, rebound testing 38.2% fib.
The week held a 157.84–158.60 range through Wednesday. Thursday's Asia and London sessions broke the range floor as risk-off flows and falling US yields drove the yen bid, and above-target Japan CPI extended the slide to a 156.08 week low in Friday's Asia session. A roughly 95-pip rebound has since lifted price back onto EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday-to-Friday drop. The rebound high at 157.12 is capping the bounce for now, while RSI(14) recovers toward 45 from the low-30s.
Support: 156.99, 156.69, 156.08
Resistance: 157.12, 157.35, 157.84
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 157.35 lower high (near the 50% fib) would break the lower-high sequence from Wednesday
A move back above the 157.84 range floor would turn Thursday's break into a false break
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 156.99 puts the 156.69 thursday low back in focus, then the 156.08 week low
Rejection at the 157.12 rebound high keeps the bounce corrective within the downtrend
US flash S&P Global PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, rebounding · RSI 47 · price 157.001
Lower highs below broken 157.83 range floor.
USD/JPY held a 157.83–158.60 range Monday to Wednesday, then broke lower Thursday on AI-linked risk-off and falling US yields, with the dominant leg running from the Asia session into London. Hot Japan core-core CPI extended the slide to a 156.08 week low early in Friday's Asia session, but the pair has since rebounded about 100 pips to the 38.2% fib near 157.04 and sits on EMA(20), below EMA(50) and the 157.12 Asia high. Thursday's 157.36 high lines up with the 50% retracement and caps the lower-highs sequence, while 156.75 marks Thursday's NY low.
Support: 156.99, 156.75, 156.08
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.36 thu high / 50% fib breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 157.83 range floor back in focus
Failure at the 157.12 asia high and a move back under the 156.75 ny low leaves the downtrend structure intact
A break of the 156.08 week low extends the lower-low sequence
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the yield gap
Mon–Wed range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since.
The Mon–Wed 157.83–158.60 range gave way in Thursday's Asia session and extended into London on risk-off and lower US yields, before printing a thu low at 156.69. The NY bounce stalled at the 157.36 lower high and faded. Friday's Asia session ran to a week low at 156.08 after the 2.4% Tokyo core-core CPI print, then the hourly wick was bought back toward 156.88, just under the ema20 near 156.97 and the 38.2% retrace of the 158.34–156.08 leg, with RSI(14) near 41 making a higher low against Thursday's washout.
Support: 156.688
Resistance: 156.97, 157.355, 157.83
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 157.36 lower high and EMA(50) near 157.40 would undercut the downtrend read
A recovery into the 157.83 range floor tests whether the broken range now caps price; a return inside raises false-break risk
Failure to hold the thu low at 156.69 after this bounce puts the 156.08 week low back in focus
US S&P Global flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Range break Thursday, lower highs and lower lows since.
USD/JPY held a 157.83–158.60 band from Monday through Wednesday. It broke the range floor in Thursday's Asia session as risk-off and lower US yields lifted the yen, extending into the London open. The NY-session bounce stalled at a 157.355 lower high, below the 50% fib of the drop, and faded back under Thursday's low at 156.69, with today's Asia session printing a fresh 156.075 low. That Asian low was rejected near the 156.00 round number, and RSI(14) at ~31 is holding above Thursday's deeper reading, a bullish divergence inside an intact lower-high sequence that keeps price below both EMAs.
Support: 156.075, 156.00
Resistance: 156.69, 157.355, 157.83
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 156.69 thu low and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 156.075 asia low exposes the 156.00 round number
A recovery through the 157.355 lower high would point toward a retest of the 157.83 range floor
US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Japanese official FX rhetoric is an intervention-headline risk for yen-driven moves
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, stretched after range break · RSI 26 · price 156.482
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken 157.83 range floor.
USD/JPY held a 157.83–158.60 range Monday through Wednesday, then broke lower in Thursday's Asia and London sessions as risk-off and falling US yields lifted the yen. The NY-open bounce stalled at the 157.35 lower high, and the old Thursday lows near 156.75 now sit overhead. Price has since printed a fresh week low at 156.39 into the Japan CPI window, holding below EMA(20) near 157.00. RSI(14) at 26 is oversold and has formed a higher low against Thursday's London trough.
Support: 156.39, 156.00
Resistance: 156.75, 157.00, 157.35
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 156.75 Thursday lows (thu lows) reopens a test of EMA(20) at 157.00
Lower-high trendline from Thursday's Asia high intact below 157.35. A reclaim of the 157.84 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 156.39 week low exposes the 156.00 round number
Japan national CPI (core f/c 2.1%) just released and Friday's US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read