USDJPY has held a multi-month uptrend off the February 154.50 base, trading above a rising EMP(50) the entire stretch barring the sharp early-April spike down to 155.50 that was quickly recovered. Price is now pressing the July-2024 / 40-yr peak at 161.95 on the wide Fed-BoJ rate gap, with the last two weeks a steady weekly grind from 160 toward that cap. RSI is elevated near 68 but not yet at D1 overbought, leaving the trend intact but stretched into the high.
Support: 160.90, 160.00
Resistance: 161.95
What it said to watch
Daily close above 161.95 breaks the 40-yr high and sharply raises MoF intervention risk
Failure to hold 160.90 / 160.00 questions the uptrend per flagged support
Core PCE (Thu) and Tokyo CPI (Thu) could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing into cap · RSI 67 · price 161.562
Higher highs/higher lows, pressing 40-yr high.
Multi-month uptrend intact, USD/JPY grinding higher since the early-April flash-low at 155.03 and holding well above a rising EMA(50). The advance is now pressing the July-2024 40-yr high at 161.95 on the wide Fed-BoJ rate gap, with the last week stalling just beneath that cap near 161.60. Two-way risk is elevated into Thursday's US Core PCE and Tokyo CPI given intervention chatter at these multi-decade lows.
Support: 160.90, 160.00
Resistance: 161.95
What it said to watch
Clean D1 close above 161.95 breaks the 40-yr high and sharply raises MoF intervention risk
Failure to hold 160.00 / 160.90 questions the uptrend per flagged support
Core PCE (Thu 12:30 UTC) and Tokyo CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read