Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 71 · price 163.852
Range break, higher highs above 40-yr high.
USDJPY broke out of a multi-week 161.00-162.70 range and cleared the prior 40-yr high at 163.24, printing a fresh high at 163.985 as broad JPY weakness on the wide rate gap and the energy shock persists. ATR(14) has expanded with the impulse and price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the higher-high structure intact. The 164.00 handle is the next area to watch overhead.
Support: 163.00, 163.24
Resistance: 163.985, 164.00
What it said to watch
- BoJ decision + Outlook Report Jul 31 03:00 UTC could sharply shift this read
- A sustained break above 164.00 opens further upside; rejection there caps the move
- Intervention rhetoric near multi-decade lows is a squeeze risk
- Failure to hold 163.00 pivot would signal the breakout stalling
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 71 · price 163.852
Higher highs, higher lows; fresh multi-decade highs.
USDJPY broke cleanly above the 163.24 40-year high and is grinding just under the 164.00 handle, with higher-low structure intact through the last two weeks. The leg is driven by persistent JPY weakness on the energy-import channel and the wide US-Japan rate gap. ATR(14) is steady rather than expanding, and price is consolidating tight below the 163.99 week high after the impulse.
Support: 163.24, 163.00, 162.40
Resistance: 163.99, 164.00
What it said to watch
- H4 close below 163.00 pivot would negate the breakout and put 162.40 back in play
- BoJ decision + Outlook Jul 31 and Tokyo CPI Jul 30 are the dominant catalysts
- Intervention rhetoric escalating near multi-decade highs around 164.00