Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:02 UTC
Sharp pullback after double top, momentum weak · RSI 32 · price 157.393
Near-full retrace of Tue–Thu rally, holding just above Tuesday low.
The Tue–Thu rally from the 156.82 tuesday low stalled in a double top at 159.03 in Thursday's NY session. Friday's reversal began in Asia and accelerated from the London-NY transition on MoF 'bold action' warnings, breaking the tue-thu rising tl and retracing roughly 95% of the move to a 156.94 friday low. Price is 157.39, just above the 157.22 week open, with EMA(20) near 157.61 and the ema50 (~157.95) overhead and RSI(14) near 32, recovering from Friday's lows.
Support: 157.22, 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.66, 157.95, 158.40
What it said to watch
- H1 close back above the 61.8% fib at 157.66 (EMA20 just below) would signal a pullback recovery; the ema50 at 157.95 and the wed high at 158.40 sit above
- Failure to hold the week open at 157.22, then the friday low at 156.94, exposes the tuesday low at 156.82; a break there completes a full retrace
- BoJ minutes Sun 23:50 UTC and any MoF intervention rhetoric could move this pair sharply in thin early-week liquidity
- Wed 30 Sep ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE 12:30 UTC are the main USD-side risks to this read
21:02 UTC
Sharp reversal lower from 159.03, now basing · RSI 34 · price 157.321
Lower highs since Thursday's peak; Friday flush to 156.94 then tight range below EMA20.
Wednesday's NY-session break above 158.00 carried into a Thursday high at 159.03, where supply capped two tests before Friday's Katayama intervention warnings drove a lower-high sequence through London and a NY flush to the 156.94 friday low, erasing most of the week's gains. Since then price has held a roughly 50-pip range, with the bounce high at 157.47 stalling near the 23.6% retracement and below the 157.60 flip level, formerly support. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s and price trades under both EMAs, with ATR near 29 pips.
Support: 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.47, 157.60, 157.98
What it said to watch
- H1 close back above the 157.60 flip level would challenge the lower-high sequence and bring the fib 50% at 157.98 into view
- Break below the 156.94 friday low and the 156.82 tuesday low would confirm a lower low beneath the week's range
- A push through the Friday lower highs trendline and the 157.47 bounce high would mark the first structural shift since the 159.03 rejection
- BoJ minutes Sun 23:50 UTC and weekend intervention headlines carry gap risk at the Asia open
- Wed ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read