21:03 UTC
Downtrend since late-July peak, rebound stalling · RSI 50 · price 157.321
Lower highs 163.99 → 160.39 → 159.03; lower low at 152.89 on Sep 8.
Since the late-July break from the 163.99 july peak (intervention precedent on July 31), D1 has printed a lower high at the 160.39 sep high and a lower low at the 152.89 sep low, with the Aug and Sep drops both finding a floor near the 155.25 aug-sep low before the Sep 7 break. The five-session rebound on yield-driven USD strength and a cautious BoJ hike stalled at 159.03, just under the 159.00-160.00 intervention zone and near the 50% of the jul-sep fib. Friday's oil-led USD dip engulfed Thursday's gains and closed below the rebound line, leaving price above EMA(20) but back under a flattening EMA(50).
Support: 156.94, 155.25, 152.89
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 159.03 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 160.39 sep high and intervention zone back in focus
- Failure to hold the 156.94 friday low after the rebound line break exposes the 155.25 aug-sep low, then the 152.89 sep low
- Wed ADP/PCE (12:15-12:30 UTC) and Tankan (Wed 23:50 UTC) could materially shift this read
- MoF intervention risk persists on any approach to 159.00-160.00, including thin weekend liquidity