21:04 UTC
Downtrend since July peak, rebound stalling below EMA50 · RSI 51 · price 157.553
Lower highs from 163.99; lower low at 152.89; rebound capped at 159.03.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the 163.99 peak on Jul 23. Two sharp liquidation legs, Jul 30–Aug 3 and Sep 2–8, carried it through the aug low at 155.23 to a sep low at 152.89, and price now sits below a falling EMA(50) at 158.09. The September rebound stalled at the 159.03 swing high on Sep 24, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Jul–Sep decline, before Katayama's intervention warning knocked it back to 157.3. Price is holding just above the ema20 at 157.11, with RSI mid-range near 51.
Support: 157.11, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.09, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the ema50 at 158.09 and the 159.03 swing high would break the lower-highs sequence
- Close above the 160.39 prior high invalidates the downtrend read; intervention risk clusters 159–160
- Failure to hold the ema20 at 157.11 exposes the aug low at 155.23, base of the 155–160 box
- Loss of 155.23 reopens the sep low at 152.89
- Tankan Wed 23:50 UTC and US ADP/NFP later this week could materially shift this read