21:04 UTC
Downtrend since July peak, rebound stalling · RSI 49 · price 157.356
Lower highs at 163.99, 160.39, 159.03; Sep low 152.89 is the trough.
USDJPY has printed a sequence of lower highs since the Jul 23 peak at 163.99. The first came at the 160.39 Sep high, the latest at 159.03 on Sep 24, with the Sep low at 152.89 marking the trough of the late-summer selloff. The three-week rebound from that low stalled between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the July–September decline. It then met rejection on Friday as Trump's yen remarks and joint US-Japan intervention warnings outweighed hawkish Fed repricing. Price now sits just above EMA20 near 157.05 but below a declining EMA50 around 158.00, with RSI neutral near 49.
Support: 156.505, 155.225, 152.886
Resistance: 158.00, 159.032, 160.391
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 159.03 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 160.39 Sep high
- Failure to hold the 156.50 Monday low exposes the 155.23 Aug low, then the 152.89 Sep low
- Sustained trade back above the ema50 near 158.00 would shift the read from rebound-in-downtrend to range
- MoF intervention data and US core PCE/ADP on Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read
- Tankan Wed 23:50 UTC and Tokyo CPI Thu: firm prints add weight to October BoJ hike pricing