Higher lows under a flat micro high inside the day range.
Early Asia session opens inside the 156.98 day low to 157.71 day high range. Price is grinding up off the 157.16 NY low, with a higher low at 157.24 and the 157.39 micro high capping twice. The bounce has retraced ~40% of the NY drop, and ATR has compressed to ~5 pips as intervention talk offsets Fed hike pricing.
Support: 157.24, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.39 micro high opens the 157.52 late NY high
Break of the 157.24 higher low ends the rising sequence and exposes the 157.16 NY low
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and Wednesday's MoF intervention data could break the 156.98 day low / 157.71 day high box
Core PCE and ADP Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Sideways, higher lows off NY low · RSI 53 · price 157.342
Tight 157.24–157.39 range inside 156.98–157.71 day range.
Early Asia session has USDJPY rotating in a tight 157.24–157.39 range after the NY-hours fade from the 157.70 area found a floor at the ny low of 157.16. Higher lows since then, but the session high at 157.39 is capping, with price parked near the 50% retrace of the 156.98–157.70 leg as JPY intervention talk offsets USD yield support.
Support: 157.24, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.39 session high exposes the 157.52 swing high, then the 157.71 day high
Loss of the 157.24 session low breaks the higher lows line and reopens the ny low at 157.16, with the 156.98 day low below
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and Wednesday's MoF intervention data could jolt JPY and shift this read
Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC ADP and Core PCE could reset the day range
23:16 UTC
Sideways, rotating inside day range · RSI 58 · price 157.367
Range 156.98–157.71, higher low forming after late NY drop.
London's break of the Asian high failed at 157.71, NY stalled at 157.70 for a double top, and the late NY drop to the ny low at 157.16 has been retraced to the 38.2% fib. In thin pre-Tokyo trade a higher low at 157.24 sits under the late ny high at 157.39. Katayama's intervention warnings and Fed hike pricing keep the pair pinned near 157.40.
Support: 157.24, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.43, 157.71
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.39 late ny high and the 157.43 fib 50% extends the rebound toward the 157.71 double top
Break below the 157.24 higher low voids the rising lows line and exposes the 157.16 ny low, then the 156.98 day low
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and any fresh MoF/Bessent jawboning in the Asia session could shift this read
Lower highs from 157.70 against higher lows from 156.98, range contracting.
USD/JPY has been pinned inside the 156.98 day low to 157.70 day high range as intervention talk offsets Fed hike pricing. Price is coiling, with each rally stopping at a lower high (157.52, then the 157.39 swing high) and each dip holding higher (the 157.16 NY low, then the 157.24 swing low). Early Asia trade sits on the 50% fib of the London-NY rebound near 157.34, with ATR compressed to about 5 pips.
Support: 157.24, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.39 swing high breaks the descending lower-high line and reopens 157.52
Failure to hold the 157.24 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 157.16 NY low, then the 156.98 day low
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and Wednesday's MoF intervention data could break the compression
ADP and core PCE Wednesday 12:15–12:30 UTC are the larger range-break risk for this read
157.00–157.71 day range; lower high at 157.70, rising lows off 157.16 into early Asia.
Two-sided day: the London spike to the 157.71 day high reversed. The dip to the 156.98 day low in the London-NY transition was a false break of the Asian range, leaving a ~73-pip band as intervention warnings offset Fed hike pricing. Early Asia is sitting on the 50% retrace of the NY rally near 157.34, capped by the late ny high at 157.39, with rising lows off the ny swing low at 157.16 and ATR(14) compressed to ~6 pips.
Support: 157.24, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the late ny high at 157.39 opens the Asian high at 157.58, then the 157.70–157.71 day high
Loss of the rollover low at 157.24 breaks the rising lows and exposes the ny swing low at 157.16, then the 156.98 day low
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and Wednesday's MoF intervention data could jolt the thin Asian tape
ADP / core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC Wed are the next USD-side catalyst for the range
22:40 UTC
Sideways, compressing after a two-way day · RSI 55 · price 157.327
Higher lows off the 157.16 ny low under a 157.39 cap; day range 156.98–157.71.
London's spike to the 157.71 day high reversed to the 156.98 day low, and the NY rebound to 157.70 met a second rejection after the dollar shrugged off the JOLTS miss. It then faded to the 157.16 ny low. Early Asia is compressing on rising lows between the 157.24 rollover low and the 157.39 late ny high, with Fed hike pricing and yen intervention talk offsetting each other.
Support: 157.237, 157.161, 156.976
Resistance: 157.392, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.39 late ny high opens the 50% fib of the NY fade at 157.43, then the 157.71 day high
Loss of the rising lows line and the 157.24 rollover low exposes the 157.16 ny low, then the 156.98 day low
Japan retail trade at 23:50 UTC and Wednesday's MoF intervention data could materially shift this read
ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC on Wednesday are the next USD-side catalysts
22:17 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 43 · price 157.261
156.98–157.71 day range, lower-high sequence.
USDJPY held a 156.98–157.71 range, with rejections at the 157.71 session high in London and again at 157.70 in NY. Lower highs at 157.52 and the 157.39 swing high have pressed price back to 157.26, the 61.8% retrace of the NY rebound, in thin post-rollover trade. Yen firmness on intervention talk is offset by Fed hike pricing, keeping the pair flat.
Support: 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.16 ny low extends the lower highs toward the 156.98 session low
M15 close above the 157.39 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 157.52 lower high
Japan retail trade at 23:50 UTC and Wed MoF intervention data could materially shift this read
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
22:02 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 51 · price 157.274
Day range 156.98–157.71, lower highs off a failed retest of the London high.
London spiked to 157.71, then dropped to the 156.98 day low. NY retested that high at 157.695 and was rejected, printing a double top, with lower highs since as intervention rhetoric keeps the yen firm. Price is drifting in thin post-NY rollover trade near the 61.8% fib of the day low-to-peak swing, capped at the 157.39 lower high above the 157.16 NY low.
Support: 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.16 NY low reopens the 156.98 day low
A break above the 157.39 lower high and the lower highs line shifts focus back to the 157.70 double top
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and the MoF intervention data could jolt early Asia trade
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC Wed are the next major volatility risk
21:47 UTC
Sideways, contracting after failed London spike · RSI 49 · price 157.272
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 156.98–157.71 day range.
USD/JPY has coiled inside the 156.98 session low and the 157.71 session high set in London, with the 157.52 lower high and 157.39 late high pressing against the 157.16 swing low and a higher-lows line. Fed hike pricing is offsetting yen intervention talk. Post-NY trade is thin and pinned near 157.27, just below both EMAs.
Support: 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.71
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.39 late high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 157.52 lower high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.16 swing low and the higher-lows line exposes the 156.98 session low
A move through 157.71 session high or below 156.98 ends the range read
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC lands in thin early Asia trade
MoF intervention data Wed and US ADP/core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Day range 156.98–157.71, lower high and higher low; stalled mid-range.
London spiked to 157.71, then reversed to the 156.98 day low. NY's rebound was rejected at the 157.70 range top again before an 18:00 UTC NY sell-off to the 157.16 NY low. Post-close drift is back inside the Asian range of 157.20–157.58 and is stalling under the 157.39 late NY high, with RSI(14) near 43 and price below EMA20/EMA50, as Fed-hike support offsets intervention risk.
Support: 157.20, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.58, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.39 late NY high exposes the 157.58 Asian high
Failure to hold the 157.20 Asian low and the 157.16 NY low reopens the 156.98 day low
Range top at 157.70 capped twice; a close above breaks the day range
Japan retail trade at 23:50 UTC and Wed MoF intervention data could materially shift this read
Wed ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the next USD catalysts
21:03 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower after NY · RSI 41 · price 157.276
Lower highs inside 156.98–157.71 day range.
USDJPY is stuck in a 156.98–157.71 day range as Fed hike pricing offsets live intervention talk. The London spike to the 157.71 day high faded, the NY open low at 156.98 was bought back to a 157.70 lower high, and a late-NY slide to the 157.16 swing low was followed by a bounce that stalled at 157.39. Price is sitting on the 61.8% of the NY leg fib after NY close, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.16 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 156.98 session low
Close above the 157.39 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 157.52 prior high back in play
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC could jolt the thin Asia session open
MoF intervention data and US ADP/core PCE (12:15–12:30 UTC Wed) could materially shift this read
157.00–157.70 day range; lower high 157.52, higher low 157.16.
USDJPY was rejected twice at the 157.70 day high (London spike, NY high), with the 156.98 day low from the pre-NY flush marking the floor of the range. The US yield bid is offset by yen intervention talk. The late-NY fade found the 157.16 ny low, then the bounce stalled at the 157.39 swing high near the 38.2% of the ny fade fib, leaving price below EMA20/50 into the Asia handover.
Support: 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.39 swing high and the 50% ny fade fib at 157.43 exposes the 157.52 lower high
Failure to hold the 157.16 ny low reopens the 156.98 day low
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and Wednesday MoF intervention data could shift the yen side of the range
Wednesday ADP/Core PCE (12:15/12:30 UTC) is the next major USD risk to the 157.71 day high
20:17 UTC
Sideways, two-way chop · RSI 47 · price 157.368
Wide intraday range, lower highs since 15:00 UTC.
USDJPY is chopping inside a 156.98 day low to 157.70 day high range. Both the London spike and the NY rally were reversed as firm US yields offset intervention warnings on the yen. The late-NY bounce from the 157.16 NY low has stalled at the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop, below the 157.52 lower high.
Support: 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.52 lower high breaks the descending sequence from the 157.70 day high
Failure to hold the 157.16 NY low reopens the 156.98 day low
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC in the Asia session. MoF intervention data and US ADP/PCE on Wednesday could reset the range.
Double top at 157.70-157.71 with lower highs; recovery from 157.16 NY low testing ema20.
London swept the 157.58 asian high to a 157.71 day high, then reversed through the Asian low to a 156.98 day low. NY printed a lower high at 157.70, and the break from the 157.52 breakdown bar ran to the 157.16 ny low. The late-NY bounce is pressing ema20 near 157.35, around the 38.2% of the NY fib, with RSI(14) near 46 as intervention rhetoric offsets Fed hike pricing.
Support: 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.52, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.52 breakdown high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 157.58 asian high and 157.71 day high
Rejection near the 50% NY fib at 157.43 keeps the lower highs sequence intact
Loss of the 157.16 ny low opens the 156.98 day low
Japan Retail Trade 23:50 UTC and Wed MoF intervention data could materially shift this read; US ADP / core PCE follow Wed 12:15-12:30 UTC
19:47 UTC
Sideways, soft within day range · RSI 41 · price 157.279
156.98–157.71 range, lower highs since NY peak.
Two rejections at the 157.70 day high, one in London and one in NY, keep the pair inside a 156.98–157.71 range. The late-NY drop set a 157.16 swing low, and price is holding near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib as Fed-hike yield support offsets yen intervention talk.
Support: 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.52, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.16 swing low exposes the 156.98 day low
Recovery above the 157.52 swing high breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the 157.70 day high
Japan Retail Trade 23:50 UTC during Asia session, then MoF intervention data and US ADP/Core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 157.70, price pressing the asian low inside the 156.98–157.71 day range.
USDJPY is still boxed in the 156.98–157.71 day range. Supply capped the twin highs near 157.70 and has since printed a run of lower highs. The late-NY breakdown through 157.39 took price back to the asian low at 157.20, near the 61.8% retrace of the day-low rally, with RSI(14) around 35. Yen firmness on intervention talk is offsetting Fed hike pricing, keeping the pair pinned.
Support: 157.20, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
Waller remarks from 19:00 UTC on an October hike could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.16 swing low and 157.20 asian low exposes the 156.98 day low
Recovery above the 157.39 breakdown level and the lower high at 157.52 neutralises the lower-highs read
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and Wednesday MoF intervention data are the next yen catalysts
19:02 UTC
Intraday lower highs, drifting lower into late NY · RSI 34 · price 157.204
Lower high at 157.52 then break of 157.39 pivot; testing Asian low.
Rejection at the 157.52 lower high at 18:00 UTC sent USD/JPY through the 157.39 prior pivot to the Asian low near 157.20. That leg retraced about 68% of the NY rally off the 156.98 day low, inside a 156.98–157.70 day range where intervention rhetoric has kept the day high capped. The 157.16 swing low is the nearest floor, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet stretched.
Support: 157.20, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC, now in progress, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.16 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 156.98 day low
Reclaim of the 157.39 prior pivot neutralises the lower highs sequence; 157.52 lower high is the next cap
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC and further MoF/Katayama yen comments are headline risk during Asia session
Lower highs from 157.70, price on Asian range low.
London broke out of both ends of the Asian range and each move failed, first at the 157.71 day high and then at the 156.98 london low, leaving a 73-pip intraday range. Late NY broke the 157.39 breakdown pivot as the yen firmed on Katayama's intervention warnings. Price now sits on the asian low near 157.20 and the 61.8% fib of the NY rally, below the lower highs line off 157.70.
Support: 157.20, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.71
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC, inside the next bar, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 157.20 asian low exposes the 156.98 london low
A recovery above the 157.39 breakdown and the 157.52 lower high would negate the late-NY fade
Failure to reclaim the lower highs line keeps the NY rally fib retracement in play
18:32 UTC
Range, late-NY pullback to range middle · RSI 33 · price 157.233
157.00–157.71 day range; lower highs since NY peak.
USDJPY rotated inside a 157.00–157.71 band all day, with London and NY both rejected near the 157.70 day high. A 22-pip late-NY drop from the 157.52 lower high put price back on the Asian low at 157.20, near the 61.8% level of the NY rally fib. Katayama's intervention rhetoric capped rallies while firm US yields held the ny low.
Support: 157.20, 156.98
Resistance: 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.20 asian low exposes the 156.98 ny low
Recovery above the 157.52 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 157.70 day high
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC, within the next bar or two, could materially shift this read
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC is a risk for the Asia session
18:17 UTC
Intraday down-leg inside a wide session range · RSI 36 · price 157.259
Lower highs off 157.70 double high, afternoon range floor broken.
London spiked to 157.71, then flushed to the 156.98 london low. NY retraced almost the whole move to form a double high at 157.70, but lower highs down to 157.52 capped the afternoon. The 18:00 UTC bar then broke the 157.39 range floor, putting price on the fib 61.8 of the NY rally at 157.25, just above the 157.20 asian low, with the yen firm on Katayama's intervention rhetoric against a yield-backed dollar.
Support: 157.25, 157.20, 156.98
Resistance: 157.39, 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.20 asian low exposes the 156.98 london low
Recovery back above the 157.39 range floor negates the break; a close above the 157.52 lower high reopens the 157.70 double high
Fresh verbal intervention headlines from Katayama/Mimura or Tokyo Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC can extend the move beyond the ~11-pip ATR
18:02 UTC
Range-bound, fading from the day high · RSI 44 · price 157.397
156.98–157.71 range, lower highs since 157.70.
USDJPY is holding a 156.98–157.71 range. The 157.70 day high was rejected in both London and NY, and price has faded back to the 157.36 intraday low under a sequence of lower highs at 157.52. Tokyo intervention talk is capping the upside while Fed hike pricing cushions dips, leaving price near the 38–50% zone of the NY rebound from 156.98.
Support: 157.36, 157.305, 156.98
Resistance: 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.52 lower high breaks the fading sequence; 157.70 day high capped twice
Loss of the 157.36 intraday low exposes the 157.30 swing low and the 50–61.8% NY rebound fib (157.34–157.25)
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) speak inside the next few bars and could materially shift this read
Further verbal escalation from Katayama or Mimura ahead of Wednesday's MoF intervention data
17:47 UTC
Two-sided, mid-range drift after NY rally · RSI 51 · price 157.415
Asian range swept both ways; NY lower high at 157.695 with pullback in progress.
London spiked to 157.713, above the 157.583 Asian high, then reversed through the 157.20 Asian low to 156.98 by 12:00 UTC before NY recovered to a 157.695 lower high. Price is now drifting late in NY on the 38.2% fib of that NY rally, just above the 157.385 swing low and under a lower-highs line from 157.695. Katayama's intervention warnings are capping upside while record-high US yields cushion the dips.
Support: 157.385, 157.305, 157.20
Resistance: 157.525, 157.583, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.385 swing low opens the 50% fib near 157.34 and the 157.305 ny base
Close above the 157.525 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 157.583 asian high and 157.713 london high back into view
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read within the hour
Fresh MoF or Katayama intervention rhetoric could extend a move through the 157.20 asian low; Japan retail sales at 23:50 UTC
156.98–157.71 range; NY higher lows, lower highs since 157.70.
London's spike to the 157.713 london high reversed into a sweep of the 156.98 session low. The NY recovery then printed a higher low at 157.305 and a swing low at 157.385, but a second rejection near 157.70 has left lower highs capping at 157.53. Price sits back inside the Asian range below the 157.583 asian high, on the 38.2% of the NY recovery, as yield-driven USD support and Tokyo intervention rhetoric keep the pair boxed.
Support: 157.385, 157.305, 156.976
Resistance: 157.525, 157.583, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.385 swing low and 157.305 higher low undoes the NY recovery and re-exposes the 156.98 session low
Close above the lower highs line near 157.53 and the 157.583 asian high reopens the 157.713 london high, rejected twice today
Fed's Williams and Waller speaking later in NY hours could shift the read; Japan Retail Trade due in the Asia session
A London spike to the 157.71 day high reversed into a flush to the 156.98 day low at midday. The NY rally stalled at 157.70, a second rejection just under the London high, with JPY intervention warnings offsetting 5.2% US yields. After London close price is consolidating 157.39–157.53, back inside the Asian range. The pullback held the swing low at 157.385, near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib, and RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 157.385, 157.305, 156.976
Resistance: 157.584, 157.713
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.385 swing low and the 157.30 higher low exposes the day low at 156.98
A close above the 157.58 asian high reopens the 157.70–157.71 day high, where two rejections have printed
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in NY · RSI 53 · price 157.522
Wide 156.98–157.71 day range; NY higher-low chain under session high.
London pushed above the Asian range to a 157.713 session high, then failed and swept below the Asian low to the 156.976 london low as Tokyo's intervention warnings kept a lid on the pair. The NY rally has printed higher lows at the 157.305 jolts low, after the JOLTS miss, and at 157.385, near the 38.2% retrace. Late in NY, price is pressing the 157.58 asian high below the session high.
Support: 157.385, 157.305, 156.976
Resistance: 157.583, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.713 session high breaks the London false break and clears the day's range top
Failure to hold the 157.385 higher low, then the 157.305 jolts low, unwinds the NY rally and reopens the 156.976 london low
Rejection again at the 157.58 asian high keeps price inside the 157.30–157.70 NY range
Fed speakers Goolsbee (17:00 UTC), Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) on October hike odds could shift this read
Japan retail trade at 23:50 UTC and Wednesday's MoF intervention data are the next yen-side risk
16:16 UTC
Intraday range, NY recovering off the lows · RSI 58 · price 157.514
Higher lows since 12:00 UTC, capped below 157.71.
London's spike to the 157.71 session high was rejected, and price swept the 156.98 day low at 12:00 UTC before NY built higher lows. Soft JOLTS and confidence were shrugged off: the push back above the 157.58 Asian high stalled at 157.70 under intervention-talk supply, and the pullback is holding the 157.44 higher low near the 38.2% of the NY rally.
Support: 157.44, 157.30, 156.98
Resistance: 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.71 session high breaks the day range to the upside
Loss of the 157.44 higher low and the NY rising trendline exposes the 157.30 swing low and the 50% fib
A move back through the 156.98 day low would undo the sweep-and-recover read
Fed speakers Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z) on an October hike could materially shift this read
NY higher lows off 156.98, capped under the 157.71 London high.
London spiked to the 157.71 london high, then reversed to a 156.98 session low that swept Monday's 156.99 low before NY built higher lows. The soft JOLTS dip to the 157.31 ny swing low was bought as yields outweighed the data, but the 15:30Z bar rejected at 157.70 and price has slipped back under the 157.58 asian high with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 157.305, 157.20, 156.976
Resistance: 157.583, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.71 london high breaks the session range to the upside
Loss of the 157.31 ny swing low (near the 50% of the NY rally fib) breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 157.20 asian low
A move back through the 156.98 session low would reverse the NY recovery
Fed speakers Barr 16:40Z, Goolsbee 17:00Z, Williams 18:00Z and Waller 19:00Z could shift this read
Japan intervention rhetoric remains a headline risk into 157.70; Japan Retail Trade due 23:50Z
Higher highs and higher lows since the 156.98 London low.
London's slide undercut yesterday's low to a 156.98 session low before reversing. NY has since built a higher-low chain from 157.31 and cleared the 157.58 Asian high, and price is now testing the 157.71 session high with RSI(14) near 66. Soft JOLTS and confidence data barely dented the dollar with yields holding firm.
Support: 157.58, 157.31, 156.98
Resistance: 157.71, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.71 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Slip back below the 157.58 asian high returns price to the Asian range and weakens the breakout
Loss of the 157.31 higher low breaks the rising lows trendline and the HL chain
Fed's Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z) on an October hike could shift this read
HH/HL chain off the session low, back above the Asian high.
London's poke to 157.71 above the Asian range (157.20–157.58) failed. The London drop ran to a 156.98 session low, a sweep of Monday's 156.99 low. Since then NY has printed a higher-low trendline off 157.31 and pushed back above the Asian high to a 157.64 NY high, with firm Fed-hike and yield support offsetting joint US-Japan intervention talk.
Support: 157.58, 157.31, 156.98
Resistance: 157.64, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.31 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the session low at 156.98
Acceptance above the 157.64 NY high brings the 157.71 London high into play; failure there would repeat the morning false break
Slipping back inside the Asian range below the 157.58 asian high weakens the NY recovery read
Fed speakers Barr (16:40 UTC), Goolsbee (17:00), Williams (18:00) and Waller (19:00) could shift hike pricing within the next bars
Any fresh Katayama/Mimura intervention remarks or rate-check reports could produce an outsized yen move against this structure
15:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 157.595
Higher lows through NY session, testing Asian high inside 156.98–157.71 day range.
USDJPY bounced from a 156.98 day low at the NY open, matching Monday's 156.99 base, and has retraced most of the London drop from 157.71 to press the 157.58 Asian high. Higher lows through NY hours as firm Treasury yields offset intervention talk. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 157.58, 157.30, 156.98
Resistance: 157.71, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.71 london high breaks the day range top and exposes the 158.00 round number
Failure to hold above the 157.58 asian high keeps price inside the Asian range
Loss of the 157.30 swing low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and reopens the day low
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, Barr 16:40, Goolsbee 17:00) or fresh Japanese intervention remarks could shift this read
15:01 UTC
Range-bound, two-sided after London spike · RSI 54 · price 157.389
Back inside Asian range; lower highs from 157.71, higher low at 157.30.
London pushed through the 157.58 Asian high to a 157.71 session high, then reversed to a 156.98 session low near the NY open, taking out both sides of the 157.20–157.58 Asian range. The rebound stalled at the 157.53 NY high into the soft JOLTS print. Price is now compressing near 157.39 on a 157.30 higher low, above the 38.2% fib at 157.32, with RSI(14) ~54 and EMAs flat.
Support: 157.305, 157.202, 156.976
Resistance: 157.533, 157.583, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.30 higher low exposes the 50% fib at 157.25 and the asian low at 157.20
Close above the 157.53 ny high breaks the lower highs line, with the asian high at 157.58 and the session high at 157.71 above
Session low at 156.98 marks the floor of today's range; a break there would signal a lower-low sequence
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) and any Japan intervention remarks could materially shift this read
157.71 to 157.53 lower high capping a rebound off the 156.98 day low.
London's spike to a 157.71 london high above the 157.58 asian high failed, and price reversed to sweep Monday's low at the 156.98 day low before NY rebounded to a 157.53 lower high. The soft JOLTS print at 14:00 UTC capped that bounce, leaving price mid-range near the 157.34 jolts low, hugging flat EMAs with RSI(14) ~52.
Support: 157.34, 157.19, 156.98
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.53 lower high breaks the descending lower-high line from 157.71 and reopens the asian high at 157.58
Failure to hold the 157.34 jolts low exposes the 157.19 london low, which sits near the 61.8% retrace of the recovery leg
Loss of the 156.98 day low would turn the earlier sweep into a lower-low sequence
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) after the soft JOLTS data could materially shift this read
London false break above Asian high, sweep of prior-day low, price back inside Asian range.
London spiked to the 157.71 london high then reversed, cutting through the 157.20 asian low and sweeping the prior-day low at 156.98 before the NY rebound capped at the 157.53 ny high. Price is back at 157.40 inside the Asian range, sitting just above flat EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 49. Katayama's intervention warnings keep USD rallies capped despite firm Treasury yields.
Support: 157.20, 156.98
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC land on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.58 asian high reopens the 157.71 london high
Failure to hold the 157.20 asian low (NY rebound 61.8% zone) exposes the 156.98 sweep low
Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) Fedspeak, plus any MoF rate-check headlines
14:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery into NY, pressing range top · RSI 53 · price 157.507
London false break above Asian high, sweep of prior-day low, NY rebound.
London pushed above the Asian high to a 157.71 London high, met rejection and reversed through the 157.20 Asian low. It swept the prior-day low into a 156.98 session low. Early NY has retraced over 61.8% of that London drop fib and is back at 157.51 under the 157.58 Asian high as JOLTS lands, with Katayama's intervention rhetoric keeping upside tentative.
Support: 157.30, 157.20, 156.98
Resistance: 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above the 157.58 asian high reopens the 157.71 london high
Failure to hold the 157.30 ny base puts the 157.20 asian low back in play
Loss of the 156.98 session low would negate the sweep-and-reclaim
Williams 18:00 / Waller 19:00 UTC Fedspeak or official yen headlines can override session structure
13:46 UTC
V-shaped recovery inside the Asian range · RSI 54 · price 157.507
Failed London breakout, sweep of Monday low, higher low at 157.30.
London's break above the asian high was rejected at the 157.71 london high, and the drop swept Monday's low to the 156.98 sweep low before a V-shaped recovery into the NY open off the 157.30 ny base. Price is at 157.51, having retraced ~70% of the London drop fib, and is pressing the 157.58 asian high. Katayama's intervention warnings have kept the upper end of this range tentative.
Support: 157.30, 157.20, 156.98
Resistance: 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, due within the next bar, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 157.58 asian high reopens the 157.71 london high
Loss of the 157.30 ny base, or a break of the ny rebound line, puts the 157.20 asian low back in play
A return below the 156.98 sweep low turns the false break into a lower low
Fedspeak (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) and any MoF rate-check headlines can extend ranges beyond the ~13-pip ATR
Back inside Asian range after London high rejection and session low sweep.
London pushed through the Asian high to a 157.71 session high. It was rejected hard, and the drop ran through the 157.20 Asian low to a 156.98 session low, just under yesterday's 156.99 low, as Katayama's yen warnings kept rallies capped. That sweep was reclaimed into the NY open. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the London drop near 157.35, flat on EMA20, with RSI(14) at 47.
Support: 157.20, 156.976
Resistance: 157.345, 157.583, 157.713
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then Fedspeak into 19:00, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 157.20 Asian low reopens the 156.98 session low
Acceptance above the 50% retrace at 157.35 puts the 157.58 Asian high back in focus
Fresh Katayama/Mimura intervention or 'rate check' headlines could cap any move toward the 157.71 session high
13:02 UTC
Range, two-sided after London reversal · RSI 49 · price 157.325
False break above Asian high, sweep of prior low, rebound to mid-range.
London spiked through the 157.58 asian high to a 157.71 session high, was rejected, then fell through the 157.19 shelf and swept yesterday's low to 156.98 at the London-NY transition. The rebound is stalling at the 50% fib near 157.35, flat on EMA20, with yen intervention warnings capping rallies and the Fed hike bid limiting the downside.
Support: 157.19, 156.98
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
A close above the 157.47 london cap, near the 61.8% fib, reopens the 157.58 asian high
A renewed rejection below the 157.71 session high keeps the London false-break read intact
Failure to hold the 157.19 shelf exposes the 156.98 sweep low
12:46 UTC
Intraday range, short-term lower highs since London high · RSI 42 · price 157.235
False break above Asian high, then sweep of day low at 156.98 and reclaim of Asian low.
London's spike to the 157.71 london high failed to hold above the 157.58 asian high and unwound. In the first hour of NY, price swept yesterday's 156.99 low to a 156.98 sweep low before snapping back above the 157.20 asian low. Price sits just under the 38.2% fib at 157.26 and the ema20 near 157.32, with RSI(14) at 42, as yen intervention talk and Fed-hike pricing keep the pair boxed.
Support: 157.20, 156.98
Resistance: 157.32, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.20 asian low reopens the 156.98 sweep low
Reclaim of the ema20 and 50% fib near 157.32–157.35 puts the 157.58 asian high back in play
A break above the 157.71 london high invalidates the failed-breakout read
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak into the NY session, could materially shift this read
MoF or Katayama intervention headlines are an outsized gap risk against the ~14-pip ATR
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from 157.71 session high · RSI 38 · price 157.106
Lower highs since London spike; Asian low broken, prior-day low swept.
London's spike above the 157.58 Asian high was rejected at the 157.71 session high. The unwind broke the 157.20 Asian low and swept yesterday's 156.99 low to a 156.98 session low before closing back above 157.00. The drop fits the digest's yen-firm read on intervention rhetoric, with the pair now sitting below the lower-highs line ahead of NY.
Support: 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.20, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
Close back above the 157.20 Asian low, which also sits near the 38.2% fib at 157.26, would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 156.98 session low opens the 156.50 prior low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Intervention headlines (Katayama/Mimura/Bessent) remain a gap risk
Reclaim of the 157.58 Asian high would put the 157.71 session high back in play
12:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London reversal · RSI 39 · price 157.161
False break above Asian high, then break below Asian low into NY open.
London spiked above the 157.583 Asian high to a 157.713 session high, then reversed and broke the 157.202 Asian low, printing a 157.129 session low into the first hour of NY; RSI(14) at 39. Upside stalled even with the yield-driven USD bid, in line with the intervention rhetoric capping USD/JPY in the digest.
Support: 157.129, 157.00
Resistance: 157.202, 157.583, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 157.202 Asian low and the falling trendline would reframe the break as a false break
A break of the 157.129 session low exposes the 157.00 round number and Monday's 156.99 swing low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
A 50% fib retracement of the London drop sits near 157.42; rejection below it keeps the lower-high sequence intact
12:01 UTC
Range-bound, heavy after London rejection · RSI 43 · price 157.268
False break above Asian high reversed; holding just above session low.
London pushed through the Asian high at 157.58 to a 157.71 session high, then reversed about 52 pips. The drop took out the Asian low and set a 157.19 session low, a move in line with the digest's read of intervention warnings capping USD/JPY despite the firm USD. Price is now flat near 157.27 below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 43 into the NY open.
Support: 157.19, 157.00
Resistance: 157.39, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.19 session low extends the reversal toward the 157.00 round number
Recovery above the 157.39 fib 38.2 of the 157.71–157.19 drop returns price to the middle of the 157.20–157.58 range
The 157.58 Asian high and 157.71 session high cap the range; a close above 157.71 negates the false-break read
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fresh MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric remains an event risk for spikes lower
False break above Asian high, retrace to Asian range low.
London pushed through the 157.58 Asian high to a 157.71 session high, but the break failed. Price has since slid about 52 pips to a 157.19 session low, which sits on the Asian range floor, and is now basing just above it below both EMAs, RSI(14) at 43. The fade fits the capped USD/JPY tone, with Tokyo intervention warnings offsetting the firm dollar and yields.
Support: 157.19, 157.00
Resistance: 157.39, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.19 session low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 157.00 round number / Monday low
Reclaim of the fib 38.2 at 157.39 would neutralise the false-break read and put the 157.58 asian high back in play
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak into 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fresh intervention rhetoric from Katayama or Mimura is a live risk near the 157.71 session high
False break above Asian high, now testing Asian range low.
London pushed through the 157.58 Asian high to a 157.71 session high, then fully reversed to a 157.19 session low, turning the move into a false break with the 157.20 Asian low now under test. The digest points to intervention talk capping USD/JPY upside. RSI(14) is near 44 and price sits below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.19, 156.99
Resistance: 157.40, 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.19 session low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 156.99 swing low
Reclaim of the 157.40 range mid restores the Asian range read
Supply at the 157.58 Asian high and 157.71 session high remains the cap unless cleared on a close
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A hold near the 38.2–50% zone of the rejection leg fib would mark a lower high
False break above Asian high, back inside 157.20–157.58 range.
London's push through the 157.58 Asian high to a 157.71 session high was fully rejected within three bars. Price is back at the 157.36–157.47 London range and the 61.8% retrace of the move off the 157.20 Asian low, sitting on both EMAs. USD support from 5.27% 10Y yields is meeting intervention-capped JPY, keeping the pair rotating inside the 157.20–157.58 range since Asia.
Support: 157.36, 157.20
Resistance: 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.36 range floor opens the 157.20 Asian low
Reclaim of the 157.58 Asian high would negate the false break read; 157.71 session high above
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) into NY open could break the range either way
10:46 UTC
Sideways, no directional follow-through · RSI 51 · price 157.439
157.20–157.58 range intact after failed London upside break.
London pushed through the 157.58 range top to a 157.71 london high, then gave back the whole move within two bars. Price is back mid-range near 157.44, just under EMA20 and holding the 157.36 pivot low. The failure fits the digest's JPY read, with intervention rhetoric capping upside while Fed hike pricing keeps a floor.
Support: 157.36, 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.58, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.71 london high negates the false-break read
Loss of the 157.36 pivot low exposes the 157.20 range base, which has held four times since Asia
Break under 157.20 opens the 156.99 24h low; a spike fib 61.8% sits near 157.40 as the midpoint test
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the range either way
London broke out of the 157.20–157.58 Asian range; higher lows since 03:00 UTC.
A 28-pip bar at 09:45 UTC late in the London morning cleared the 157.58 prior high, capped twice across yesterday's NY session and early Asia, and printed a session high at 157.71, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched. USD firmness on the 5.27% US 10Y is behind the London leg, but the pair is now pressing the zone where Japanese intervention rhetoric has capped it.
Support: 157.58, 157.47, 157.23
Resistance: 157.71, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.58 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break back inside the Asian range
Loss of the 157.47 range top, then the 157.23 london low, unwinds the London leg
Acceptance above the 157.71 session high opens the 158.00 round number
Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; fresh MoF or Katayama intervention remarks are a sharp reversal risk
09:46 UTC
Sideways, contracting · RSI 56 · price 157.425
Lower highs from 157.58 against rising lows from 157.20, tight triangle-like squeeze.
Mid-London, USDJPY is coiling between falling highs off the 157.58 Asian high and rising lows from the 157.20 Asian low. London has held a 157.23–157.47 range, with the 07:00 UTC lower high at 157.53 rejected. RSI(14) sits near 56 and ATR(14) is about 10 pips as firm US yields meet intervention-capped supply near 157.50.
Support: 157.36, 157.23, 157.20
Resistance: 157.47, 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 london high, then the 157.53 lower high, tests the falling highs line toward the 157.58 asian high
Loss of the 157.36 london dip puts the 157.23 london low and rising lows line back in play
Close below the 157.20 asian low breaks the contraction and opens the 157.00 area
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could break the squeeze in either direction
Fresh MoF/Katayama intervention remarks remain a risk to any push toward 157.58
09:16 UTC
Sideways, contracting range · RSI 51 · price 157.375
Lower highs and higher lows coiling inside the Asian range.
Mid-London, USDJPY is coiling inside the 157.20–157.58 Asian range, printing lower highs off the 157.58 double top and higher lows from the 157.20 Asian low. The London high at 157.53 was rejected at the open. Price now sits flat on EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 50, and Katayama's intervention warnings are capping upside against the firm USD yield bid.
Support: 157.234, 157.202, 156.993
Resistance: 157.473, 157.526, 157.583
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 157.53 London high and 157.58 double top
Loss of the 157.23 London low and 157.20 Asian low breaks the higher-lows line and opens the 156.99 NY low
Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) could materially shift this read; Waller at 19:00 UTC later in NY hours
09:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 157.375
Range 157.20–157.58, lower highs, flat lows.
Two hours into London, price is still inside the Asian range. The 157.58 asian high capped both yesterday's NY rally and the Asia peak, and the london high at 157.53 printed below it along a line of lower highs, while dips held 157.20–157.24 four times. RSI(14) sits near 50 and price is pinned to flat EMAs, with firm US yields supporting dips and Katayama's intervention rhetoric capping the top.
Support: 157.23, 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.20 asian low and 157.23 london low breaks the range and exposes the 156.99 swing low
Close above the 157.53 london high and the lower highs line reopens the 157.58 asian high
Musalem at 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could break the range
Fresh MoF jawboning or rate-check reports could trigger a fast yen move through the lows
08:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 50 · price 157.44
Lower highs into a flat range floor inside the Asian range.
Early London trade is holding inside the Asian range of 157.20–157.58. Lower highs at 157.58, 157.55 and the 157.53 london high are compressing price against a range floor near 157.23, with Monday's 157.58 high matched overnight as a double top. Katayama's intervention warnings keep upside attempts capped, and RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 157.23, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.53 london high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 157.58 double top back in play
Close below the 157.23 range floor exposes the Monday low at 156.99
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the compression
Fresh MoF or Katayama yen comments could trigger another reversal from the range top
Asia and the London open have held a 157.20–157.58 band. Highs are stepping lower from Monday's NY session high at 157.58 to 157.55, then a 157.53 lower high at London open, while demand stepped in at the 157.20–157.23 session low three times. Yen intervention warnings against firm Fed-hike pricing keep price pinned near mid-range around 157.42, just under the 157.50 pivot.
Support: 157.22, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.53 lower high and 157.58 session high breaks the compression
Failure to hold the 157.22 session low exposes the 156.99 NY low from Monday
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Katayama/Mimura intervention headlines remain a source of abrupt downside ranges
157.20–157.58 range; lower highs pressing a flat floor.
London open ran to the 157.53 London high and was rejected back to 157.23. That leaves a third lower high off the 157.58 range top, set in NY and matched in Asia, while the 157.20–157.24 range floor has held four times since NY. Price is flat on both EMAs with RSI(14) near 46, a compressing range as intervention warnings cap rallies and firm US yields hold the floor.
Support: 157.22, 157.00
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.22 range floor breaks the flat base and exposes the 157.00 round number
Close above the 157.58 range top negates the lower highs sequence
The 157.53 London high is the first test of the lower highs line
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fresh Japan intervention rhetoric could force a break of the range floor
08:02 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 49 · price 157.365
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the Asian range.
Early London, USDJPY is still boxed in the 157.20–157.58 Asian range after two rejections at the 157.58 range high (Monday NY and Asia), with highs stepping lower since. The London open ran to 157.53 (london high) before slipping to the 157.23 london low, holding above the asian low as intervention warnings offset firm US yields. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and price is pinned between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.23, 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.20 asian low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 156.99 ny low
Close above the 157.58 range high voids the lower-highs read
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh Japanese intervention remarks could force a break of the contracting range
07:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum soft below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 157.316
Asian range 157.20–157.58, lower highs into London open.
Asia held a 157.20–157.58 range beneath Monday's matching 157.58 range top. The London open was rejected at 157.53, the third lower high, while the asian low keeps holding. Tokyo intervention warnings are offsetting firm US yields, and price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
Close below the 157.20 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 156.99 mon ny low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 157.58 range top invalidates the compression read
A retest of the 157.53 london high is the first gauge of whether the lower-highs sequence holds
Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the range
USD/JPY has held a 157.20–157.58 range since the Asia session. Highs at 157.58, 157.55 and the 157.53 London high are stepping lower into a flat range low near 157.20, and the London open push was rejected. Price is pinned on the flat EMAs with RSI(14) at 49, as intervention warnings offset the firm USD and yield bid.
Support: 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 range top and the lower highs line voids the compression read
Failure to hold the 157.20 range low exposes Monday's 156.99 ny low
Fed's Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) could break the range during NY hours
Fresh Mimura/Katayama intervention remarks remain a risk to the upside probes
Asian range 157.20–157.58, higher lows vs lower highs.
London open finds USDJPY at 157.48 in the upper half of the 157.20–157.58 Asian range. Higher lows at 157.20 and 157.22 against a 157.55 lower high below the 157.58 range top are compressing price. Intervention warnings are capping the top while firm US yields cushion dips; RSI(14) near 56, no extreme.
Support: 157.32, 157.20
Resistance: 157.55, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 range top breaks the Asian range and the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 157.32 swing low exposes the 157.20 range low; a close below it breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the range read in NY hours
Fresh Mimura/Katayama intervention remarks could trigger an abrupt drop through the range low, as seen in Monday's 156.50 flush
Asian range 157.20–157.58, lower highs under a double top.
Asia boxed USDJPY between the 157.22 range floor and the 157.58 range top. The Asia high matched the prior NY high, forming a double top, and the lower high at 157.54 has since capped rebounds while demand held the floor twice. London open is next with price mid-range near the flat EMAs, as intervention warnings offset the yield-driven USD bid.
Support: 157.22, 156.99
Resistance: 157.54, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.22 range floor exposes the 156.99 swing low from Monday's post-dip recovery
Close above the 157.58 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and voids the double top
Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.20–157.58, flat lows, marginal lower high.
Asia session held a 157.20–157.58 range. The range top matches yesterday's NY high, and a lower high printed at 157.55 around 05:00 UTC, while the range low absorbed three dips overnight. Price is pinned on flat EMA20/50 into London open, holding Monday's recovery from 156.50 as intervention talk keeps JPY two-way.
Support: 157.20, 157.00
Resistance: 157.55, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.58 range top breaks the Asian range and the lower highs line
Failure to hold 157.20 range low exposes the 157.00 round number and yesterday's NY low
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh Katayama/Bessent intervention remarks or rate-check reports can override the range
06:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum soft · RSI 43 · price 157.272
157.20–157.58 range, lower high at 157.55, price at range floor.
Late Asia session, just ahead of London open. The pair has capped twice at the 157.58 range top (Monday NY and early Asia) and printed a lower high at 157.55, with the 06:00 UTC slide back to the 157.20 asian low. Firm US yields keep dips shallow, while intervention talk keeps rallies contained. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 157.20, 156.99, 156.50
Resistance: 157.55, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.20 asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 156.99 ny low
Loss of 156.99 reopens the 156.50 monday low
Close above the 157.55 lower high and the trendline puts the 157.58 range top back in play
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh Japanese official remarks on the yen or rate-check reports
06:16 UTC
Sideways after rebound from 156.50, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 157.348
Asian range 157.20–157.58 with lower highs under the range top.
USDJPY has held a 157.20–157.58 Asian range after recovering from yesterday's 156.50 low. Supply capped the range top at 157.58 twice and the 157.55 lower high was rejected, so price is drifting toward the 157.30 swing low ahead of London open. Intervention jawboning continues to offset support from Fed-hike pricing.
Support: 157.30, 157.20, 157.00
Resistance: 157.55, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.20 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 157.00 round number and the 38.2% fib of the 156.50-157.58 rebound near 157.17
M15 close above the 157.58 range top invalidates the lower-high read under the Asian trendline
Loss of the 157.30 swing low keeps the Asian range floor in play into London open
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh MoF/intervention headlines could reprice JPY abruptly
06:01 UTC
Sideways, rotating in range · RSI 53 · price 157.408
Asian range 157.20–157.58, lower high at 157.55.
Late Asia, USD/JPY is rotating inside a 157.20–157.58 Asian range. The range top at 157.58, yesterday's NY high, has capped twice, and the last push stalled at a lower high of 157.55 before slipping to a 157.32 swing low. Price is flat on the EMA20 near 157.41 with RSI(14) at 53, as intervention warnings offset Fed-hike support and hold price well above yesterday's 156.50 London low; the asian low at 157.20 sits near the 38.2% fib of that recovery.
Support: 157.32, 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.55, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 range top breaks the Asian range and the double cap
Failure to hold the 157.32 swing low exposes the 157.20 asian low
Loss of 157.20 puts the 156.99 ny low and the 50% fib near 157.04 in play
London open in ~1h may set the direction of the Asian range break
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh MoF intervention warnings could cap upside regardless of structure
05:46 UTC
Sideways, range-bound after rebound · RSI 51 · price 157.448
Asia range 157.20–157.58, lower high at 157.55.
Late Asia session is boxed between the 157.20 asia low and the 157.58 range top. A second rejection at 157.58 (NY high, retested at 02:00 UTC) was followed by a lower high at 157.55, and price sits mid-range with RSI(14) near 51. Yesterday's London-open flush to 156.50 has been fully retraced, but MoF/Mimura intervention warnings keep supply capping the upside despite firm US yields.
Support: 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.55, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 range top breaks the Asia range and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.20 asia low exposes the 156.99 ny low
Holding below the 157.55 lower high keeps the trendline of lower highs intact into London open (~07:00 UTC)
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 157.457
Asian range 157.20–157.58 with slightly lower highs and lows.
Late Asia session, price sits mid-range at 157.46 inside the 157.20–157.58 Asian range, after yesterday's intervention-talk drop to the 156.50 prior low was fully retraced. The 50% fib of that recovery held near the 157.00 NY low, and supply capped the Asian high at the 157.58 double high, set in both the NY and Tokyo sessions. Asian lower highs followed, with a rejection at 157.55 on the latest bars; RSI(14) is flat near 49.
Support: 157.20, 157.00, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 157.78
What it said to watch
A London-session break of the 157.20 Asian low exposes the 157.00 NY low and the 50% fib
A close above the 157.58 double high breaks the Asian lower highs and opens the 157.78 prior high
A fresh Katayama/Mimura intervention remark could revisit the 156.50 prior low
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Range, intraday recovery pressing the top · RSI 56 · price 157.527
Asian range 157.20–157.58, higher lows since 03:15 UTC, retest of range top.
Late Asia session, the pair is retesting the 157.58 double top that capped both yesterday's NY high and the early-Asia push, having retraced ~85% of the Asian swing lower. The rebound from the 157.20 Asian low has built higher lows along the rebound line, though yen firmness on renewed US-Japan intervention rhetoric has kept the range top intact.
Support: 157.39, 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.58, 157.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 double top opens the prior high at 157.78
Break of the rebound line and the 157.39 pivot low returns focus to the 157.20 Asian low
Loss of 157.20 exposes yesterday's NY low at 156.99
London open in ~2h, Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Sideways, pressing range top · RSI 60 · price 157.527
Asian range 157.20–157.58, rising lows off the floor.
Late Tokyo session has USDJPY back at the top of its 157.20–157.58 Asian range. The 157.58 twin highs capped both Monday's NY session and the 01:45 UTC push, after Monday's Katayama-driven dip to 156.50 was fully recovered. The bounce from the 157.20 asian low has retraced about 90% of the overnight swing (asian swing fib) on a chain of rising lows, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 9 pips.
Support: 157.39, 157.20, 156.99
Resistance: 157.58, 157.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 twin highs breaks the Asian range and exposes Monday's 157.78 prior high
Break of the rising lows line near 157.39 returns price to mid-range; loss of the 157.20 asian low opens Monday's 156.99 ny low
Third rejection at 157.58 would leave a clean double cap at the range top into London open
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh Katayama/Mimura intervention remarks remain headline risk, as seen in Monday's drop to 156.50
04:46 UTC
Sideways, recovering off asia low · RSI 59 · price 157.46
Range 157.00–157.58, lower highs rebuilding from 157.20.
Late Asia session: the 01:45 UTC push stalled at 157.58, matching Monday's high for a double top. Price pulled back to the asia low at 157.20 and has since recovered to 157.46, about 68% of the asia swing fib. RSI(14) is near 59. The pair stays inside the range capped at 157.58, with the round number at 157.00 below. That range formed after Monday's London-open flush to the monday low at 156.50, while Katayama's intervention warnings offset Fed-hike pricing.
Support: 157.20, 157.00, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 double top breaks the range and brings the 158.00 round number into view
Failure to hold the 157.20 asia low exposes the 157.00 round number and weakens the range floor
A move back toward the 156.50 monday low would require a break of 157.00 first
London open is due within the hour, and range expansion from the 157.20–157.58 Asian range is typical
Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh Japan intervention headlines remain a two-way risk to the range
Asian range 157.20–157.58, price mid-range after rebound.
Asian session rejected the 157.58 session high, matching Monday's NY peak. Price then slid to the 157.20 session low as Katayama's yen warnings kept intervention risk live. The rebound has retraced about 58% of that leg on the Asian range fib, leaving price mid-range with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 157.20, 157.00
Resistance: 157.583, 157.80
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 session high breaks the range and opens the 157.80 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.20 session low exposes the 157.00 round number, near Monday's NY low
Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Further Japanese intervention rhetoric remains a headline risk to the range
Asian range 157.20–157.58 inside a rising-lows sequence.
The Asia session is ranging 157.20–157.58. The Asian high was rejected at the same 157.58 that capped Monday's NY rebound, and price sits mid-range near 157.44 with RSI(14) neutral around 52. Lows have stepped up from Monday's London flush to 156.50 and the NY low at 157.00, as Fed-hike bets offset MoF intervention warnings.
Support: 157.20, 157.00, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 157.80
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 Asian high breaks the double cap and exposes Monday's prior high near 157.80
Failure to hold the 157.20 Asian low breaks the rising-lows line and puts the 157.00 NY low (near the 50% fib of the 156.50–157.58 rebound) back in focus
Loss of 157.00 reopens the 156.50 Monday low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak through the NY session, could materially shift this read
Any fresh Katayama or Mimura intervention remarks can override the range structure
The rebound from London's 156.50 day low was rejected twice at 157.58, the NY session high and the Asian high, leaving an unconfirmed double top. Asia is printing a lower high near 157.40 inside a 157.20–157.58 session range, with dip demand on Fed-hike bets keeping the pullback above the 38.2% fib near 157.17.
Support: 157.20, 156.99, 156.50
Resistance: 157.40, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.20 session low confirms the double top and exposes the 156.99 ny low near the 50% fib
A break of the 157.40 lower high line reopens the 157.58 double top
Loss of 156.99 puts the 156.50 day low back in focus; MoF or intervention headlines could accelerate that
London open in ~3h and US JOLTS / Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 157.58 double top, pressing Asian low.
The Asia session rally stalled at 157.58, matching yesterday's NY high as a double top, and price has slipped back below the ema20 near 157.35 to test the Asian low at 157.20. RSI(14) is near 41. Yesterday's London low at 156.50 remains the floor after the yen-positive drop, with the NY swing low near 157.00 sitting between.
Support: 157.20, 156.99, 156.50
Resistance: 157.35, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.20 Asian low opens the NY swing low near 157.00, the 50% fib retracement area
Reclaim of the ema20 at 157.35 followed by a close above the 157.58 double top invalidates the lower-high read
Break of 156.50 London low would put the full London–NY advance back in question
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Any Katayama/Mimura intervention remarks remain a headline risk for the 157.58 cap
Double top at 157.58, lower-high sequence into the Asian low.
The Asia session rejected 157.58 a second time, matching Monday's NY high to form a double top. Lower highs have since pressed price onto the 157.22 Asian low, near the 38.2% of Monday's recovery fib from the 156.50 Monday low. RSI(14) sits near 42 with price below both EMAs, while firm US yields and MoF intervention talk keep flows two-way.
Support: 157.22, 157.00, 156.50
Resistance: 157.40, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.22 asian low exposes the 157.00 ny swing low near the 50% of the recovery fib
Close above the 157.40 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and weakens the pullback read
A retest of 157.58 would test the double top a third time
Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
A break of 156.50 monday low would erase the full recovery fib
Asian range 157.23–157.58 with a double top at the range high; price mid-range.
Mid-Asia session: the recovery from Monday's 156.50 London-hours low tagged 157.583 a second time at 01:45 UTC and was rejected, a double top that has pushed price back to 157.35, just under both EMAs and above the Asian low at 157.23. The 157.47 late-NY high is intraday resistance inside the range, with Fed-hike pricing on the USD side still offset by MoF intervention talk on the yen.
Support: 157.23, 157.00, 156.505
Resistance: 157.47, 157.583
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.583 double top invalidates the rejection read
Failure to hold the 157.23 Asian low exposes Monday's 156.99 NY low near 157.00, roughly the 50% level of the recovery fib
Break of 157.00 puts the 156.505 Monday low back in view
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS / Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Fresh Katayama/Mimura intervention rhetoric could produce abrupt yen-driven legs
Asian range 157.23–157.58, two rejections at 157.58 highs.
Monday's London-open flush to 156.50 was fully recovered, and the 157.58 session high has now capped price twice, in Monday NY and again in the Asia session. Price is back at 157.33, mid-to-low in the Asian range and at the 23.6% level of the Monday low-high fib, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 46. Fed-hike pricing is keeping dip-buyers active while intervention rhetoric limits upside follow-through.
Support: 157.23, 157.00
Resistance: 157.58, 157.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 session high breaks the double rejection and exposes the 157.82 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.23 asian low opens the 38.2% fib near 157.17 and the 157.00 round number
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Katayama/Mimura intervention headlines remain a two-way risk
02:46 UTC
Sideways, recovering from Monday's London drop · RSI 45 · price 157.32
Asia session range 157.23–157.58, equal highs capping.
Mid-Asia session, price is chopping inside a 157.23–157.58 range after the 157.58 equal highs (Monday NY high, retested at 01:45 UTC) were rejected. Price is back at the 61.8% retrace of Monday's London drop from 157.82 to 156.50, with RSI(14) near 45 and price just under EMA20/EMA50. Tokyo intervention rhetoric is offsetting firm USD yields, leaving no directional impulse on this chart.
Support: 157.23, 157.00, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 157.82
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.23 asian low exposes the 157.00 ny low
Loss of the 157.00 ny low reopens Monday's 156.50 london low
M15 close above the 157.58 equal highs opens the path to the 157.82 monday high
Tuesday Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh Japanese intervention headlines could break the Asian range abruptly
02:31 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since Monday's London low · RSI 51 · price 157.419
Tokyo range 157.23–157.58, double high capping the top.
Mid-Tokyo session, price is holding a 157.23–157.58 range. The 157.58 double high (Monday's NY peak, retested at 01:45 UTC) rejected again, and price is back near EMA20 at 157.41 with RSI(14) flat at 51. Since Monday's 156.51 London low, which followed Iran sanctions-relief reports that trimmed USD gains, lows have stepped higher along a rising trendline, but JPY intervention talk is keeping the topside heavy.
Support: 157.23, 156.99
Resistance: 157.58, 157.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 double high opens the 157.82 prior high, with the 157.60 pivot directly overhead
A break of the 157.23 tokyo low and the rising trendline exposes the 156.99 ny low near the 50% fib
Failure to hold 156.99 would mark a lower-low and undo the higher-low sequence
Tuesday Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Range after full recovery of Monday's flush · RSI 54 · price 157.461
157.23–157.58 Asian range, equal highs at 157.58.
Asia session retested Monday's ny high at 157.58 and was rejected, leaving price mid-range at 157.46 inside a 157.23–157.58 Asian range with RSI(14) neutral near 54. Monday's London-open flush to 156.50 has been fully retraced on broad USD strength despite Tokyo jawboning, with the rising lows from the 156.99 ny low still intact.
Support: 157.23, 156.99
Resistance: 157.58, 157.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 ny high breaks the equal highs and brings the 157.82 prior high into view
Loss of the 157.23 asian low breaks the rising lows trendline and reopens the 156.99 ny low near the 50% fib of Monday's rally
Fresh Japan intervention rhetoric could abruptly reverse the range read
Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS and Fed speakers could materially shift this read later in the day
02:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 62 · price 157.576
HL chain from 156.50; Asia pressing the 157.58 prior high.
Monday's early-London flush to the 156.50 day low, amid Tokyo intervention rhetoric, has been retraced through higher lows at 156.85, 156.99 and the 157.23 asian low, keeping the rising trendline intact. Asia session is now retesting the 157.58 prior high from NY hours with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 157.23, 156.99, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 157.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 prior high opens the path to the 157.82 monday high
Rejection at 157.58 leaves a flat double high over the NY and Asia sessions
Break of the rising trendline and 157.23 asian low ends the higher-low chain; 156.99 swing low is next
Fib 50% of the recovery sits near 157.04, just above the swing low
Fresh Japan intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.23–157.53 inside Monday's NY range 156.99–157.58.
Early Asia session: the Tokyo push to 157.53 was rejected just under the 157.58 NY high and dropped to the 157.23 asia low before bouncing back to mid-range. RSI(14) is flat near 49. The pair is compressing after Monday's London flush to 156.51 and is holding above the 23.6% level of the fib from that low to the NY high, with Tokyo intervention talk keeping the upside capped.
Support: 157.23, 157.17, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.53 asia high and the 157.58 ny high breaks the Asian range higher
Loss of the 157.23 asia low exposes the 38.2% fib at 157.17 and then the 156.99 ny low
Japan intervention headlines can override the range read; US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
01:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower high in place · RSI 39 · price 157.258
Lower high at 157.53 under the NY high at 157.58; Tokyo session low being tested.
Early Tokyo rejected the 157.53 session high, a lower high under Monday's 157.58 NY high, and slipped to a 157.25 session low. That follows the London-open flush to 156.51 on yen demand tied to intervention talk and the hawkish BoJ minutes. RSI(14) near 39 with price below both EMAs; the London-NY rebound fib 38.2% at 157.17 and the 157.00 round number sit underneath.
Support: 157.25, 157.17, 157.00
Resistance: 157.30, 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.25 session low exposes the fib 38.2% at 157.17 and the 157.00 round number (NY low 156.99)
Reclaim of the 157.30 broken low weakens the pullback read; the 157.53 session high is the next test
M15 close above the 157.58 NY high breaks the lower-high line
Japan intervention rhetoric remains a headline risk during the Asia session; JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled US driver
01:16 UTC
Recovery from London low, stalling under 157.58 · RSI 49 · price 157.361
Higher lows since 156.505; Asian range 157.30–157.53.
Monday's London-open flush to 156.505, amid Tokyo intervention rhetoric, has been fully recovered on a chain of higher lows, but the 157.58 NY high capped the rebound and price sits in only a shallow retracement of that move. Early Asia session was rejected at the 157.53 Asian high and has slipped back to 157.36, sitting on the rising support line with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 157.30, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.30 Asian low also breaks rising support and exposes the 156.99 NY low / 50% fib near 157.04
M15 close above the 157.53 Asian high and 157.58 NY high breaks the cap on Monday's recovery
Fresh Japan intervention jawboning could reprise Monday's London-open drop
01:02 UTC
Range after V-recovery, higher lows since NY · RSI 48 · price 157.361
Higher lows from 156.99, capped under 157.53–157.58.
Monday's London sell-off to 156.51 was recovered by NY to the 157.58 NY high. Tokyo jawboning is offsetting US 10y yields at 2007 highs. Early Asia session is rotating in a 157.30–157.53 range. The spike to the Asian high was rejected inside the same bar, and the rising support from the 156.99 NY low is intact.
Support: 157.30, 156.99
Resistance: 157.53, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.30 asian low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain, exposing the 156.99 ny low
Close above the 157.53 asian high puts the 157.58 ny high back in play
Fresh Tokyo intervention rhetoric or Iran sanctions headlines could jolt the range
US JOLTS and Fedspeak later Tuesday could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Recovering, compressing under 157.50 · RSI 60 · price 157.459
Higher lows since NY low, tight 157.30–157.49 band.
Monday's London-open flush to 156.50 was bought back to the 157.58 NY high. Since then the pair has made rising lows from the 156.99 NY low and has held in a 157.30–157.49 band, capped under the 157.50 pivot. Early Asia is retesting the band top at 157.49, the new asian high, after the asian low at 157.30 held. ATR near 5.5 pips reflects thin overnight ranges.
Support: 157.30, 156.99
Resistance: 157.49, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.50 and the 157.58 ny high reopens the 157.85 monday high
Loss of the 157.30 asian low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 156.99 ny low
Hold above the 23.6% retracement of the monday rally keeps the recovery structure intact
JOLTS and Fed speakers Tue from 14:00 UTC; MoF intervention data and Tankan Wed could reset the range
Higher lows since London-open flush, compressing under late-NY high.
Monday's London-open flush to 156.50 has been retraced in a higher-low sequence along a rising trendline. The NY swing high at 157.58 capped the rebound, and price now sits between the 157.30 Asia low and the 157.47 late NY high, in line with the intervention-versus-yield-gap pinning described in the digest. The dip to the 157.30 Asia low around the 23:50 UTC Japan retail print was absorbed within two bars; ATR near 5 pips reflects thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 157.30, 157.17, 157.00
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 late NY high and the 157.58 swing high breaks the compression, with Monday's 157.85 Asian high next
Failure to hold the 157.30 Asia low and the rising trendline exposes the 157.17 38.2% fib and the 157.00 swing low
Japan intervention rhetoric during the Tokyo session near 157.50 could cap the rebound and shift this read
Tight 157.30–157.47 band after NY recovery from 156.99.
Monday's Asian range gave way at London open, with a drop to 156.505 on Mimura's intervention warnings. NY rebuilt to a 157.58 NY high on firm US yields, then printed a 156.99 NY low and a 157.07 higher low. Since late NY the pair has compressed between the 157.30 session low and the 157.47 range top, with the low sitting near the 38.2% level of the NY recovery fib. Early Tuesday Asia trade is thin, RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 157.30, 157.07, 156.99
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.30 session low breaks the compression and exposes the 157.07 higher low, then the 156.99 NY low
Close above the 157.47 range top reopens the 157.58 NY high
MoF/Katayama intervention headlines can override the range at any point
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and the Tuesday Fedspeak cluster could materially shift this read
Lower high at 157.58 under the 157.85 Asian high; late-NY 157.36–157.47 band now slipping.
London broke below Monday's Asian range to a 156.51 london low as Mimura's intervention warnings and hawkish BoJ minutes lifted JPY. High US yields drove the NY recovery, but it met rejection at the 157.58 ny high, below the 157.85 asian high. The late-NY 157.36–157.47 band is giving way in early Tokyo, with price at 157.30 under EMA20 and ATR(14) compressed to ~6.5 pips.
Support: 157.20, 157.07, 156.51
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.20 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the london low–ny high leg (157.17), exposes the 157.07 ny low
Reclaim of the 157.47 late ny high restores the recovery toward the 157.58 ny high
MoF/Katayama intervention headlines during the Tokyo session can extend moves beyond the compressed ATR
Tuesday's JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and the Fedspeak cluster are the next scheduled drivers of the yield-gap bid