USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend since the PCE low, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 157.476
Higher lows from 156.648; pullback holding above 157.324 near the session high.
USDJPY has built a higher-low chain off the post-PCE low at 156.648, with the rally topping at a 157.537 session high late in NY. The thin rollover pullback held the 157.324 swing low, and price is back at 157.48 in early Asia with RSI(14) near 56. Tankan (23:50 UTC) is minutes away.
Support: 157.324, 157.233, 157.00
Resistance: 157.537, 158.00
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read within the next bar
M15 close above the 157.537 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.00 psych / intervention zone
Failure to hold the 157.324 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 157.233 prior low, then the 157.00 round number (option strike)
A drop back below the 50% level of the post-PCE rally fib (~157.09) would undo the recovery structure
HH/HL chain from 156.65, now compressing in a 157.32–157.44 range.
USD/JPY fully reversed the post-PCE drop to 156.65 during NY hours as growth beats offset the soft core print. It printed a 157.54 session high, then eased into a tight 157.32–157.44 range into the Asia open, holding above the ny base and rising support. RSI(14) is flat near 46 and ATR is about 5 pips, so compression is in place ahead of Tankan.
Support: 157.32, 157.23, 157.00
Resistance: 157.44, 157.54
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (f/c 25) could break the range top at 157.44 or the range low at 157.32 within the first bar
An M15 close below the 157.23 ny base breaks rising support from the PCE low and exposes the 38.2% fib near 157.20
Below that, the 157.00 option exp acts as a magnet
A close above the 157.54 session high opens 158.00, where intervention headlines are the cap
Higher lows since 156.65; tight 157.32–157.44 range after NY close.
USD/JPY climbed about 89 pips off the post-PCE low at 156.65 during NY hours as US growth beats outweighed the soft PCE, topping at the 157.54 session high before the rollover. It is now compressing between the 157.32 rollover low (near the 23.6% fib) and a 157.44 range top, with rising lows intact, RSI(14) near 51 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 157.324, 157.233
Resistance: 157.437, 157.537
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (Large Mfg f/c 25) lands inside the next bars. A strong print could pressure the 157 option strike, while a weak one could re-test the session high.
A close below the 157.32 rollover low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 157.23 swing low and 38.2% fib near 157.20.
A close above the 157.44 range top puts the 157.54 session high back in play.
Higher lows off the 156.648 PCE low, now boxed 157.32–157.54.
USDJPY has recovered the full Asia-session repatriation slide to 156.375. The turn came at the 156.648 PCE low, after the soft core print was absorbed by US growth beats, and a rising-lows chain carried price to the 157.537 NY high. The post-rollover dip held at the 157.324 rollover low, and price is now pinned under the 157.437 micro high in thin early Asia trade, with RSI(14) near 55 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 157.324, 157.233, 157.00
Resistance: 157.437, 157.537, 158.00
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (Large Mfg f/c 25) could materially shift this read in the next bar
Close below the 157.324 rollover low and the rising-lows line breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.233 NY swing low
Close above the 157.437 micro high and then the 157.537 NY high extends the higher-high sequence
157.00 options strike sits near the 50% retrace of the PCE low to NY high leg
Verbal intervention headlines ahead of 158.00 would change the character of any extension
Higher lows since the 156.65 double tap; shallow pullback from the 157.537 session high held at 157.324.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since the double bottom at 156.65, set at London open and again on the soft PCE print. Growth beats carried NY to a 157.537 session high, and the late pullback held the 157.324 pullback low on rising support. Tape is quiet after the NY close heading into Asia, with RSI near 58 and ATR around 5.6 pips.
Support: 157.324, 157.233, 157.00
Resistance: 157.537, 158.00
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 157.00 round number and option expiry back in play
An M15 close above the 157.537 session high extends the higher-high chain toward 158.00 psych, where intervention risk has capped rallies
Failure to hold the 157.324 pullback low and rising support exposes the 157.233 swing low; losing that breaks the higher-low sequence
A break below the 38.2% fib near 157.20 of the PCE low to NY high move deepens the retracement toward 157.09
HH/HL chain from 156.648 PCE low; tight 157.32–157.54 range.
USD/JPY has rebuilt from the 156.648 post-PCE low, with growth beats offsetting the soft core print. The recovery carried to a 157.537 NY high, above the 157.456 Asia high, and the pullback held the 157.324 swing low at the 23.6% fib. Price is back near 157.44 in early Asia with RSI(14) near 61, and the PCE low trendline is intact.
Support: 157.324, 157.233, 157.00
Resistance: 157.456, 157.537
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (f/c 25) could materially shift this read: ≥27 revives yen demand, ≤22 softens it
An M15 close above the 157.537 NY high extends the higher-high chain from the PCE low
Failure to hold the 157.324 swing low and the PCE low trendline breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the 157.233 range base
Below the range base, the 157.00 option strike ($1.4bn) is the next magnet
Higher-low chain from 156.65; shallow pullback off 157.54 session high.
The post-PCE dip to 156.65 fully reversed during NY hours. A higher-low chain carried price through the 157.456 asia high to a 157.537 session high, the 157.52 area flagged in the JPY digest. After the NY close the pullback held the 157.324 swing low, near the 23.6% fib of the 156.65–157.54 leg; price is idling at 157.39 with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 157.324, 157.233, 157.00
Resistance: 157.456, 157.537
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read; a Large Manufacturing beat above 25 adds to JPY demand
M15 close below the 157.324 swing low breaks the rising line from the NY lows and exposes the 157.233 higher low
Loss of 157.233 ends the higher-low chain and brings the 157.00 option strike back into play
Acceptance above the 157.537 session high extends the post-PCE leg, with intervention headlines the stated cap
Repeated failure below the 157.456 asia high keeps price inside the post-NY pullback range
22:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend since the NY low, pausing · RSI 54 · price 157.352
Higher highs and higher lows off 156.65; shallow pullback from the 157.54 day high.
USD/JPY fully reversed the post-PCE dip: from the 156.65 low it built higher highs and higher lows through NY to a 157.54 day high, as strong US GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data offset the soft PCE. Price is now drifting in thin post-rollover trade, flat to the EMA20 and holding the 157.30 swing low near the 23.6% level of the NY rally fib.
Support: 157.30, 157.23, 157.00
Resistance: 157.43, 157.54
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read. A beat that adds to BoJ hike bets would test the rally.
M15 close below the 157.30 swing low puts the 157.23 higher low and the 38.2% of the NY rally fib near 157.20 in play
A break below 157.23 would end the higher-low chain, with the 157.00 option strike (157 strike) next
A reclaim of the 157.43 lower high reopens the 157.54 day high
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and intervention headlines are live event risk
HH/HL chain off 156.65 double bottom; shallow pullback into rollover.
USDJPY printed a double bottom at 156.65 between the London low and the dip after the soft PCE. It then climbed through NY hours past the 157.46 prior high to a 157.54 session high, as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI prints offset the miss. Price has eased to 157.33 into rollover, only about 23% into the post-PCE rally fib, with RSI(14) back near 50 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 157.233, 156.648
Resistance: 157.456, 157.537
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read. JPY has been firm on intervention fears, and a strong print adds pressure on the lows.
A break below the 157.23 swing low exposes the 157 strike, which lines up with the 61.8% of the post-PCE rally fib.
An M15 close back above the 157.54 session high extends the HH chain. Failure at the 157.46 prior high keeps the pullback in play.
A loss of the 156.65 double btm negates the recovery structure.
21:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from NY low, pausing after rejection · RSI 47 · price 157.342
Double bottom at 156.65 into higher lows; rising line broken.
After the soft-PCE dip held the London low to form a double bottom at 156.65, strong GDP and Chicago PMI plus firmer yields fed a stair-step NY rally. The rally cleared the asia high at 157.46 and printed a 157.54 ny high before a rejection. Price has since slipped below the rising line into 157.34 in thin post-NY trade, holding just above the 23.6% level of the NY rally fib with RSI(14) back near 47.
Support: 157.23, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.46, 157.54
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.23 swing low breaks the NY higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.00 round number (option strike)
M15 close back above the 157.46 asia high puts the 157.54 ny high back in play
Tankan at 23:50 UTC and Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 156.65 double bottom would negate the NY recovery structure
Higher lows from 156.648 NY low; shallow pullback off 157.537.
The Asia-session slide to 156.375 was fully retraced after the soft PCE dip held at the 156.648 NY low. GDP and Chicago PMI beats then lifted the pair back through the 157 strike. The late-NY push to a 157.537 session high was rejected, and price is back under the 157.456 prior high, holding above the 157.233 NY base in thin post-close trade.
Support: 157.233, 156.648
Resistance: 157.456, 157.537
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (Kashkari 22:00 UTC first) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.537 session high extends the NY rally; failure there keeps the rejection in play
Loss of the 157.233 NY base exposes the 157 strike, near the 50–61.8% zone of the NY rally fib; a break of the 156.648 NY low would unwind the whole rally
21:02 UTC
Uptrend off the post-PCE low, momentum slowing · RSI 62 · price 157.403
Higher highs and higher lows from 156.65; session high 157.54 rejected.
The post-PCE dip to 156.65 matched the London-open low for a double bottom. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then drove a steady climb through NY hours. Late NY printed a session high at 157.54, above the 157.46 Asia high, and was rejected. Price is holding rising support above the 157.30 swing low.
Support: 157.30, 157.23, 157.00
Resistance: 157.46, 157.54
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.23 pullback low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 157.00 round number near the 61.8% of the PCE-low fib
Close back above the 157.54 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of rising support near 157.38 shifts the read to consolidation under the Asia high
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Uptrend off post-PCE low, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 157.411
HH/HL chain from 156.65; false break above 157.46 prior high.
USDJPY dipped to 156.65 on the soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then fuelled a NY-session climb along rising support to a 157.54 session high. The push through the 157.46 prior high was rejected within a bar. Price is back at 157.41 in thin post-NY trade, holding above the 157.30 swing low.
Support: 157.30, 157.23, 157.00
Resistance: 157.46, 157.54
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.30 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 157.23 range base
Loss of 157.23 and the rising support line puts the 157.00 option strike and the fib 50% near 157.09 in play
Sustained trade above 157.46–157.54 (prior high / session high) negates the false break read
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could reset the Asian range; the Tankan is the higher-impact event
20:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending late NY · RSI 67 · price 157.479
Higher highs and higher lows off the 156.648 post-PCE low.
The post-PCE leg from 156.648 has reversed the entire US-data dip. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI outweighed the soft PCE, and price cleared the Asian high at 157.46 to a 157.54 session high late in NY hours. RSI(14) is near 67, warm but not stretched, and the rising lows off the 157.23 swing low remain intact.
Support: 157.46, 157.39, 157.23
Resistance: 157.54, 158.00
What it said to watch
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (Large Mfg f/c 25) could materially shift this read in thin post-NY liquidity
A close back below the 157.46 asian high turns the break into a false break, exposing the 157.39 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.23 swing low breaks the rising lows chain
Clearance of the 157.54 session high puts the 158.00 round number in view
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC is a secondary risk for USD rates pricing
Higher highs and higher lows off the 156.65 double bottom.
The post-PCE dip at 12:30 UTC stalled at 156.65, matching the London-open low for a double bottom. Strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats then drove a NY rally back through the 157 strike, with a higher-low chain now testing the 157.47 session high as RSI(14) sits near 67. The 157.23 swing low is the last pullback pivot, with the 157.30 micro low just above it.
Support: 157.30, 157.23
Resistance: 157.47, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 157.50 round number
A break of the 157.30 micro low, then the 157.23 swing low, breaks the higher-low trendline
A deeper pullback into the NY rally fib 38.2% near 157.15 puts the 157 strike back in play
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the PCE low, momentum flattening · RSI 61 · price 157.38
Higher lows from 156.65, now compressing in a 157.23–157.40 late-NY range.
NY hours reversed the soft-PCE dip to the 156.65 pce low as beats in ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI firmed USD, erasing the whole Asia-session drop from 157.43 to 156.38. Late NY, price is compressing in a tight 157.23 range low to 157.40 session high band just under the 157.46 prior high, with RSI(14) near 61 and bar ranges shrinking.
Support: 157.23, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.40, 157.46
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.46 prior high extends the higher-high chain out of the late-NY range
Loss of the 157.23 range low opens the 38.2–50% post-PCE rally fib zone around 157.11–157.02, near the 157.00 round number and option strike
Goolsbee at 20:05 UTC and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read into the Asia session
Higher lows since 156.65; tight 157.30–157.39 band late NY.
The soft core PCE print knocked the pair to 156.65 at 12:30 UTC, but beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI drove a NY rally to the 157.39 ny high, with a chain of higher lows up to the 157.30 swing low. Late NY is compressing below that high with ATR shrinking to about 6 pips and RSI(14) neutral near 56; the prior high at 157.46 from the Tokyo open caps the window.
Support: 157.297, 157.233, 157.00
Resistance: 157.389, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.39 ny high exposes the 157.46 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.30 swing low and then the 157.23 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain toward the 38.2% of the NY rally near 157.10
157.00 round number doubles as the $1.4bn option strike, a likely magnet on any slip
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) on October vs December hike timing
Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read in the Asia session
19:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend from NY low, momentum pausing · RSI 61 · price 157.351
Higher lows off 156.65, tight flag 157.23–157.39 under session high.
NY session retraced the full data-driven dip to the 156.65 NY low as the US growth beats outweighed the soft core PCE, and price is now coiling in a 157.23–157.39 flag just under the session high late in NY. The prior high at 157.46 sits above, while the 157.00 option strike lines up with the fib 50% below. RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched, and ATR has compressed to about 7–8 pips.
Support: 157.233, 157.00, 156.648
Resistance: 157.389, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.39 session high opens the path to the 157.46 prior high
Break of the 157.23 range low and the NY rising line exposes the 157.00 strike / fib 50% zone
Loss of 157.00 puts the 156.65 NY low back in play
Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read; Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) also due
18:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend since the PCE low, now stalling · RSI 62 · price 157.325
Double bottom at 156.65, higher lows, tight 157.23–157.39 box.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC dropped the pair to 156.65. That matched the London low and formed a double bottom. The ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then drove a NY rally through the Asian high at 157.25 to a 157.389 session high. Late in NY the pair is boxed between the 157.233 swing low and the session high, holding above the pce low–high fib's 23.6% level at 157.21.
Support: 157.233, 157.00, 156.648
Resistance: 157.389, 157.456
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.389 session high reopens the prior high at 157.456, with 157.50 area supply noted in the digest.
Losing the 157.233 swing low puts the fib 50% at 157.02 and the 157.00 option strike in play.
A return below the 156.648 pce low voids the double bottom.
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak from 19:25 UTC. The Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read in early Asia.
Higher lows off 156.65 double bottom; tight 157.23–157.39 box.
USDJPY set a double btm at 156.65, with the Asia-morning low and the post-PCE low matching. Beats in ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI then drove a post-PCE rally through the 157.14 neckline. Late in the NY session price is compressing between the 157.23 swing low and the 157.39 session high, and the 18:00 push to the high was rejected. RSI(14) is near 62.
Support: 157.23, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.39, 157.46
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.39 session high exposes the 157.46 prior high; supply has capped this area twice this afternoon.
Losing the 157.23 swing low puts the 157.00 option strike and the 38.2% fib of the post-PCE rally at 157.11 in play.
A break back below the 156.65 double btm would negate the recovery structure.
Fed Cook at 19:25 UTC, plus Goolsbee and Kashkari later, and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read. MoF intervention headlines remain a tail risk.
18:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asia high · RSI 68 · price 157.375
Double bottom at 156.65, HH/HL chain since PCE low.
USDJPY built a double bottom at 156.65, with the London low matching the post-PCE low, then cleared the 157.14–157.25 neckline. Strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI data outweighed the soft core PCE. Late in the NY session, after London close, price printed 157.39 and now sits just under the 157.46 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 157.233, 157.00, 156.648
Resistance: 157.456, 157.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.46 Asia high and 157.50 psych level extends the breakout; rejection there keeps price inside the Asian range.
Failure to hold the 157.23 swing low exposes the 157.00 opt strike, which sits near the 50% retracement of the PCE low-to-high leg.
Loss of the 156.65 pce low invalidates the double bottom read.
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak from 19:25 UTC, and the Tankan is due at 23:50 UTC; either could materially shift this read. Intervention headlines remain a tail risk.
Higher lows off 156.65, tight consolidation 157.23–157.36 in late NY.
The 156.65 double btm held through the PCE release, and ADP/GDP/Chicago PMI beats drove a post-PCE leg to a 157.365 NY high. Price is now compressing in a 157.23–157.36 band with the range low holding, still inside the 156.38–157.456 Asian range.
Support: 157.233, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.365, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.365 NY high opens a test of the 157.456 asian high
Loss of the 157.233 range low exposes the 157 strike and the 38.2% of the post-PCE leg near 157.09
A break below the 156.65 double btm would negate the higher-low sequence
Fed's Cook at 19:25 UTC and Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 156.66, tight range under Asia high.
Asia sold off to 156.38 on intervention-led yen demand. The London low and the post-PCE dip both held at 156.65–156.66, forming a double low, and strong US activity data then lifted price to a 157.365 NY high. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is compressing in a 157.23–157.37 range just under the 157.456 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 157.233, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.365, 157.456
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.365 NY high puts the 157.456 Asia high in play; the digest flags heavy offers from 157.50 up to 158.20.
Loss of the 157.23 range low exposes the 157.00 option strike, which sits near the 50% level of the NY rally fib.
A break of the 156.65 double low negates the post-PCE recovery structure.
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00), then the Tankan at 23:50 UTC, could materially shift this read.
17:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below NY high · RSI 64 · price 157.276
Higher lows off a 156.65 double low, tight consolidation under 157.37.
USDJPY has retraced most of the Asia-session slide to 156.375. It rallied off a double low at 156.65, formed by the London low and the post-PCE NY low, to a 157.365 NY high, as ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats overrode the core PCE miss. Late in the NY session price is compressing just under the ny high with RSI(14) cooling, and the asia high at 157.456 and prior high at 157.52 sit directly above.
Support: 157.23, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.365, 157.456, 157.52
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.365 ny high exposes the 157.456 asia high and 157.52 prior high
Loss of the 157.23 micro low puts the 157 strike ($1.4bn option) and 50% fib of the NY rally in play
A break of the ny trendline and a close below 157.00 reopens the 156.65 double low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift this read, as could the Tankan at 23:50 UTC
Double bottom at 156.65, NY break of Asian high now being retested.
The yen bid on intervention fears took the pair to a 156.375 Asian low. The London-open low and the post-PCE low then formed a double bottom near 156.65, and the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats lifted price through the 157.25 Asian high to a 157.365 session high. Late in the NY session, price is holding a shallow retest of the Asian high, with RSI(14) easing to 62.
Support: 157.25, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.365, 157.52
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.25 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 157.00 option strike, which sits at the 50% fib of the NY rally
M15 close above the 157.365 session high opens the 157.52 prior high from the overnight range
Failure to hold the 156.65 double bottom invalidates the recovery structure
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then the Tankan at 23:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Post-PCE rebound, momentum stalling at session high · RSI 67 · price 157.282
Higher-low chain off 156.65 PCE low; London high and 157.25 cleared in NY.
USD/JPY rebounded about 70 pips from the 156.65 PCE low as the US growth beats outweighed the core miss. It cleared the London high and 157.25 during NY hours before stalling at the 157.37 NY high. The higher-low chain holds above the 157.14 swing low, with the 157.00 strike near the 50% fib below and the 157.46 prior high and 157.52 range top overhead.
Support: 157.14, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.365, 157.456, 157.52
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.14 swing low breaks the post-PCE higher-low chain; the 157.00 strike and 50% fib sit next
Close above the 157.37 NY high exposes the 157.46 prior high and the 157.52 overnight range top
Loss of the 156.65 pce low reopens the 156.38 overnight low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari could shift the read; Tankan at 23:50 UTC is the Asia session risk
HH/HL chain off a 156.65 double low; broke above 157.25 prior high, stalling under the Asia high.
The soft core PCE dip held 156.65, matching the London-open low for a double low. The activity-data beats then drove a steady HH/HL climb through the 157.25 prior high to a 157.37 session high. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR runs about 14 pips as the late NY session drifts just under the 157.46 Asia high.
Support: 157.254, 157.00, 156.648
Resistance: 157.365, 157.456, 157.525
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.25 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 157.00 round number (fib 50% of the post-PCE rally).
A break of the 157.46 Asia high opens the 157.52 prior-day high, where intervention-wary supply capped price overnight.
Losing the post-PCE trendline and then the 156.65 double low would negate the recovery structure.
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari, then the Tankan at 23:50 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Double bottom at 156.65 with a breakout above the 157.25 asia bounce high.
The London low and the post-PCE low formed a double low at 156.65. The soft core PCE dip was then reversed by beats in ADP, GDP and the Chicago PMI, and NY hours cleared the 157.25 asia bounce high to a 157.37 session high. RSI(14) is near 70 late in NY as price nears the 157.46 asia high and the 157.52 prior high, the zone where yen intervention talk has capped rallies.
Support: 157.25, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.37, 157.46, 157.52
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.25 (asia bounce) turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.00 option strike (157 strike) re-exposes the 156.65 double low
Acceptance above the 157.46 asia high and 157.52 prior high extends the uptrend beyond the overnight range
Fed's Cook at 19:25 UTC and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention headlines remain a gap risk
16:16 UTC
NY-session recovery, pressing the upper Asian range · RSI 67 · price 157.275
Twin lows at 156.65, neckline 157.14 cleared, higher lows off 156.38.
The soft core PCE knocked price to 156.65, matching the London low and forming twin lows. The GDP and Chicago PMI beats then fuelled a NY recovery along rising lows, through the 157.14 neckline to 157.28, near the 78.6% fib of the overnight drop. RSI(14) sits at 67, with the 157.46 Asian high and 157.52 prior high overhead, where the digest flags intervention-linked supply.
Support: 157.14, 156.65
Resistance: 157.46, 157.52
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.46 Asian high exposes the 157.52 prior high
A slip back below the 157.14 neckline and the 157 strike undermines the double bottom read
Loss of the NY rising lows trendline turns focus back to the 156.65 twin lows
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari after the PCE miss could shift this read
Tankan at 23:50 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines are event risk for the Asia session
16:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in NY · RSI 61 · price 157.22
V-shaped recovery from pce low, now testing swing high at 157.25.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC dropped USD/JPY to the 156.65 pce low. The NY session has since retraced the whole move on a chain of higher lows and is now pressing the 157.25 swing high from the Asian rebound. RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched, and the 157.00 option strike lines up with the 38.2% fib just below.
Support: 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.25, 157.52
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 swing high opens the 157.52 prior high
Break back below the 157.00 option strike and the higher lows exposes the 156.65 pce low
Fed's Cook at 19:25 UTC and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under session high · RSI 57 · price 157.15
Higher lows off 156.65 double bottom, capped near 157.25.
Yen strength during the Asia session set the 156.38 low on intervention-cooperation headlines. London and the post-PCE dip both held 156.65, forming a double bottom, and NY has since reclaimed the 157.00 option strike and cleared the London high at 157.14 despite the core-PCE miss. Price is now stalling just under the 157.25 session high late in the London-NY overlap, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 157.00, 156.90, 156.65
Resistance: 157.25, 157.46
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 session high opens the path to the 157.46 Asia high
Loss of the 156.90 swing low and the rising lows trendline, with the 50% NY rally fib at 156.94, undoes the NY recovery structure
A break below the 156.65 double bottom exposes the 156.38 Asian low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and the Tankan (23:50 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 156.65, neckline 157.14 broken in NY session.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC knocked price to 156.65, matching the London-open low for a double bottom, and demand has stepped in on a rising post-PCE trendline since. The NY session has cleared the 157.14 neckline and the 157.00 option strike to a 157.21 session high, with RSI(14) near 59 and the 04:45 UTC swing high at 157.25 now being tested below the 157.46 Asian range high.
Support: 157.14, 157.00, 156.65
Resistance: 157.21, 157.25, 157.46
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 swing high opens the 157.46 Asian range high
Slip back below the 157.14 neckline and the 157.00 strike undermines the double bottom read
Break of the rising post-PCE trendline near 156.80 exposes the 50-61.8% post-PCE fib zone at 156.93-156.86
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh MoF intervention headlines are a live risk to the recovery leg
15:17 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since Asia low · RSI 53 · price 157.067
Range 156.65–157.25 with rising lows; NY pushed through London high then eased.
The Asia-session selloff to 156.38 on intervention talk gave way to a 156.65–157.25 range. The soft core PCE print dipped price into a double bottom at the london low (156.65), then NY lifted it through the London high to a 157.17 ny high. Price is now holding just above the 157.00 option strike, with rising support from the Asia low intact and RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 157.00, 156.79, 156.65
Resistance: 157.17, 157.25, 157.46
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.25 asia swing high breaks the range top and exposes the 157.46 prior high
Losing the 157.00 option strike and the 156.79 swing low turns the NY leg into a failed push back toward the london low
A pullback deeper than 50% of the NY leg (~156.91) weakens the higher-low chain
A break of rising support and the 156.65 double bottom invalidates the range read
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF intervention headlines remain a tail risk
156.65–157.14 range since London open, higher lows off the pce low.
The soft core PCE (3.0% vs 3.3%) flushed price to 156.648. The move ran only a fraction of a pip past the 156.649 London open low before reversing, which forms a double bottom at the pce low inside the 156.65–157.14 London high range. The NY rebound is building higher lows but is pinned around the 157.00 option strike, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and price sitting on EMA50.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.00, 157.14, 157.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.14 london high breaks the range and brings the 157.25 asia high into play
Loss of the 156.65 pce low negates the double bottom and exposes the 156.38 asia low
A break of the higher lows trendline returns price toward the pce low; the pce rebound fib 61.8% sits near 156.81
Fed Cook at 19:25 UTC and Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia sell-off, NY higher lows · RSI 50 · price 156.95
Range 156.65–157.14; higher lows in NY under lower-highs line.
After the 156.38 Asia low, price has held a 156.65–157.14 band. The soft core PCE print flushed price to 156.65, matching the London low for a double low, before demand lifted it back to the 157 strike. Mid-NY is printing a higher low at 156.73 under a lower-highs line from the 157.25 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and ATR around 15 pips.
Support: 156.725, 156.65, 156.375
Resistance: 157.136, 157.254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.14 london high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 157.25 swing high
Repeated rejection at the 157 strike keeps the range read intact
Loss of the 156.73 higher low, then the 156.65 double low, reopens the 156.38 asia low
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) comments on the PCE miss could shift this read
Tankan at 23:50 UTC is the next JPY-specific volatility risk
14:31 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since London · RSI 47 · price 156.937
Inside Asian range, double low at 156.65, post-PCE higher low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC knocked USDJPY to 156.65, matching the London session low. Demand stepped in again there, forming a double low, and the NY rebound has since printed a higher low at 156.725. Price is now back at the 61.8% fib near 156.95, stalling under the 157.00 option strike beneath a lower-highs line from the 157.136 London high. The pair remains inside the 156.375–157.254 Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 156.725, 156.65, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.136, 157.254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.00 option 157 strike and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 157.136 london high, then the 157.254 asian high
Loss of the 156.725 higher low puts the 156.65 double low back in play; a break there exposes the 156.375 asian low
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) on the PCE miss could shift this read
Tankan at 23:50 UTC and any MoF intervention rhetoric are JPY event risk
Lower highs capping a 156.65–157.14 range after Asia selloff.
Intervention talk drove an Asia session slide to the 156.38 Asia low, and London-NY has since held between the 156.65 double low and the 157.14 London high, with each bounce forming lower highs. The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC knocked price back to the 156.65 double low, where demand stepped in. The rebound stalled at the 156.95 post-PCE high, the 61.8% of the PCE drop fib, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 156.95, 157.14
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.65 double low opens the 156.38 Asia low
Recovery through the 156.95 post-PCE high and the 157 strike brings the 157.14 London high and the lower-highs trendline back into view
Month-end and Japan half-year repatriation flows may distort NY session price action around the 157 strike
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), then Tankan at 23:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 48 · price 156.892
Lower highs 157.25 → 157.14 over a 156.65 double low; mid-range rebound.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC knocked USDJPY to 156.65, matching the London-open double low. Demand stepped in and lifted price back to the 50% retrace of the PCE drop, just under both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 48. Lower highs at 157.25 and the 157.14 session high define the descending trendline, and the 157 strike ($1.4bn option) caps first.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.14, 157.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.14 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 156.65 double low reopens the 156.38 Asian low
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) and Fed's Cook and Goolsbee tonight could shift this read; Tankan at 23:50 UTC is the next JPY risk
Month-end and Japan half-year repatriation flows may distort moves around the 157 strike
13:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia sell-off, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 156.801
156.65–157.14 range since London, lower highs, NY testing floor.
The Asia session slide to the 156.375 asia low bounced to 157.25, and London then held a 156.65–157.14 range under lower highs. The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC pushed price to the range floor at 156.65, where buyers stepped in, but the rebound stalled at the 156.89 post-PCE high, below the 157 strike. RSI(14) is near 41 and price sits under both EMAs.
Support: 156.648, 156.375
Resistance: 156.894, 157.136
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could extend the post-PCE swing within the first hour of NY
M15 close below the 156.65 range floor exposes the 156.375 asia low
Hold above the 156.89 post-PCE high and reclaim of the 157 strike brings the 157.14 london high and lower-highs line into play
Price is near the 50% fib of the Asia rebound; failure to hold it keeps the lower-highs read intact
Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) could shift the USD read after the soft PCE
London range 156.65–157.14 with lower highs; PCE spike broke and reclaimed the range low.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss knocked USDJPY about 30 pips to 156.65, a false break of the london low that was reclaimed as the GDP and ADP beats cushioned the move. The bounce stalled at the 50% fib of the PCE drop near 156.87. Price sits below EMA20/50 with the 157.00 option strike overhead and lower highs from 157.25 capping.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 156.87, 157.00, 157.14
What it said to watch
A close below the 156.65 london low turns the false break into a range break toward the 156.38 asia low
A reclaim of the 157.00 option strike puts the 157.14 london high and the lower-highs line back in play
Holding under the 156.87 50% fib keeps the post-PCE bounce corrective
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Range after Asia sell-off, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 156.815
London-NY range 156.65–157.14 below a lower high at 157.25; floor tested twice.
The Asia session sell-off to the 156.38 Asia low came on yen strength from intervention talk and Katayama's comments. Since London open, USDJPY has held a 156.65–157.14 range under a lower high at 157.25. The 12:30 GMT US data bar spiked into the london low at 156.65 and was bought back, a second rejection at that floor, and price sits under both EMAs in the first hour of NY with the 157 strike overhead.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.14, 157.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.65 london low breaks the range floor and exposes the 156.38 asia low
Reclaim of the 157 strike and a close above the 157.14 session high would put the 157.25 lower high back in play
Follow-through from the US PCE release could extend the 12:30 GMT spike range
Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Down, lower highs since Asia · RSI 34 · price 156.713
Lower highs inside the 156.38–157.25 Asian range, retesting the London low.
USD/JPY dropped about 27 pips in the 12:30 GMT bar, the scheduled PCE slot, erasing the London advance and returning to the 156.65 london low, which sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rebound. Lower highs at the 157.25 asia high and 157.14 london high have kept price capped under the 157.00 option strike, on yen strength from intervention talk after Katayama's comments.
Support: 156.649, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.136, 157.254
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.65 london low exposes the 156.38 asia low
Recovery above the 157.00 option strike and 157.14 london high breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 157.25 asia high
PCE follow-through during NY hours, and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Sideways to lower, lower highs under 157.00 · RSI 38 · price 156.789
Contracting London range under the 157 strike, rising lows now breaking.
Tokyo selling on joint-intervention fears set the 156.38 Asia low. London then built a contracting range under the 157.00 option strike, with a lower high at 157.25 and a London high at 157.14 set against rising lows from 156.65. The bar straddling the 12:30 GMT US core PCE release has cut through the rising lows to 156.77, RSI(14) near 38, with the London low at 156.65 the next reference.
Support: 156.649, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.136, 157.254
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.00 option strike negates the break of the rising lows
Failure to hold the London low at 156.65 exposes the 156.38 Asia low
Close above the London high at 157.14 breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens 157.25
US core PCE (12:30 GMT, f/c 0.3% MoM) could materially shift this read; BoJ Tankan at 23:50 UTC is next
12:16 UTC
Recovering from Asia drop, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 157.045
Higher lows from 156.65, coiling under 157.14 at the 157.00 strike.
The Asia session drop from the 157.46 Asia high to 156.38 came on Katayama's intervention talk and Williams' dovish tilt. London has since built rising lows from the 156.65 London low, and price now sits at the 61.8% fib of that drop, right on the 157 strike. Range is compressing between the 156.91 higher low and the 157.14 London high into the NY open, with ATR near 11 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 156.914, 156.649
Resistance: 157.136, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) are likely to break the 156.91–157.14 compression; a close above the London high opens the 157.25 swing high, then the 157.46 Asia high
M15 close below the 156.91 higher low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 156.65 London low
Acceptance away from the 157 strike ($1.4bn option) ends the pinning read into the month-end fix
Rate-check or joint intervention headlines can override the intraday structure
12:01 UTC
Sideways after Tokyo selloff, higher lows since London open · RSI 55 · price 157.01
Compressing 156.88–157.14 box around the 157.00 strike.
The Tokyo drop from the 157.46 asian high to the 156.38 asian low came on intervention talk and Williams' dovish remarks. Since then London has printed higher lows from the 156.65 london low and pinned price at the 157.00 option strike, right at the 61.8% of the Tokyo drop. The 156.88–157.14 session range is compressing into ADP/PCE, with RSI(14) mid-50s and EMAs flat underneath.
Support: 156.91, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.14, 157.25, 157.46
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the likely catalysts to resolve the 156.88–157.14 box
A close above the 157.14 london high clears the 61.8% of the Tokyo drop and exposes the 157.25 swing high, then the 157.46 asian high
Loss of the 156.91 higher low breaks the London higher-lows line and puts the 156.65 london low and 156.38 asian low back in view
11:46 UTC
Two-way, higher lows since early London · RSI 55 · price 157.032
Compression at 157.00 under 157.14–157.25 caps.
Asia dumped from the 157.46 asia high to 156.38 on Williams' dovish remarks and quarter-end yen repatriation. Since then London has printed higher lows at 156.65 (london low) and 156.91 (higher low), pinning price to the 157.00 strike, which sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Asia drop. The 157.14 session high and 157.25 rebound high cap the range into ADP and core PCE.
Support: 157.00, 156.91, 156.65
Resistance: 157.14, 157.25, 157.46
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the likely catalyst to break the compression around the 157 strike
M15 close above the 157.25 rebound high clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the 157.46 asia high
Loss of the rising trendline and the 156.91 higher low reopens the 156.65 london low
Rate-check or intervention headlines from Tokyo could override the intraday structure
11:31 UTC
Neutral, compressing after overnight drop · RSI 49 · price 156.952
Higher lows from Asian low, capped below 157.14–157.25.
USD/JPY is pinned around the 157.00 option strike late in the London session. It is building higher lows at the 156.65 London low and the 156.88 swing low after intervention-driven yen demand forced the Asian drop to 156.38. Supply keeps capping the London high at 157.14, below the 157.25 Asian high; RSI(14) sits flat near 49, with price just under EMA20/50.
Support: 156.88, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.00, 157.14, 157.25
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 156.88 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 156.65 London low
Acceptance above the 157.14 London high puts the 157.25 Asian high in play
Failure at the 156.65 London low reopens the 156.38 Asian low
11:16 UTC
Recovering from Asia selloff, higher lows since London open · RSI 61 · price 157.101
HL chain 156.649 → 156.879 inside the 156.375–157.456 Asia range, testing session high.
The Asia session selloff from the 157.456 asia high to 156.375 came on intervention fears after Katayama's comments. London has since printed higher lows at the 156.649 london low and the 156.879 swing low, reclaiming the 157.00 option strike and the 61.8% level of the Asia selloff fib. Price is pressing the 157.136 session high with the 157.254 rebound high above, and RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched.
Support: 157.00, 156.879, 156.649
Resistance: 157.136, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC land within the hour and could materially shift this read
A close back below the 157 strike puts the 156.879 swing low in play; losing it breaks the London HL trendline
A close above the 157.254 rebound high extends the recovery toward the 157.456 asia high
Failure to hold the 156.649 london low reopens the Asia selloff low at 156.375
BoJ Tankan at 23:50 UTC and any rate-check headlines are event risk for the yen
11:01 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, higher lows intact · RSI 61 · price 157.071
Higher lows since London open, capped at 157.10 London high.
Tokyo sold off from the 157.46 prior high to the 156.38 Asia low as US yields slid and repatriation flows hit. Since then price has printed higher lows at 156.65 (London low) and 156.88, and is now pressing the 157.10 London high around the 157.00 option strike, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) about 10 pips heading into ADP and core PCE.
Support: 156.88, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.10, 157.25, 157.46
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.10 london high opens the 157.25 swing high, then the 157.46 prior high
Break of the 156.88 higher low and rising trendline shifts focus back to the 156.65 london low and 156.38 asia low
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop keeps price inside the 156.65–157.25 range
10:46 UTC
Rebounding off Asia low, stalling at 157.00 · RSI 56 · price 157.003
Higher lows inside the Asian range, capped at London high.
The Asia-session slide from 157.45 found a floor at the 156.38 Asian low, driven by repatriation flows and the Williams-led drop in US yields. London has printed higher lows at 156.65 and 156.88, but supply is capping at the 157.10 London high. Price sits on the 157.00 option strike, still inside the Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 156.88, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.10, 157.25
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~1.5h out) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.10 London high exposes the 157.25 Asian high
Failure to hold the 156.88 higher low breaks the London sequence and puts the 156.65 London low back in play
Intervention headlines from Tokyo can override intraday structure
10:31 UTC
Range after Asia selloff, momentum neutral · RSI 52 · price 156.922
Lower highs and higher lows compressing around 157.00.
Asia-session repatriation selling, on Williams' dovish tilt and softer US yields, drove USD/JPY to the 156.38 asia low. The bounce stalled at the 157.25 rebound high. London has since held a tighter 156.65–157.10 range, with lower highs and rising lows converging on the 157 strike. The latest bar was rejected near 157.06 and slipped back under 157.00, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.00, 157.10, 157.25
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 157.10 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens 157.25 rebound high
Failure to hold the 156.65 london low exposes the 156.38 asia low
Price holding below the 157 strike keeps the rising lows line in focus
Higher lows through London after an Asia sell-off; capped below the session high.
The pair broke below the 157.00 psych level in Asia on yen jawboning and softer US yields. The Asia drop ran to 156.375, and the rebound stalled at the 157.254 asia rebound high. London has built higher lows off the 156.649 london low and is back at 157.05, a 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop, stalling just under the 157.10 session high with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 157.00, 156.86, 156.649
Resistance: 157.10, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT, about 2h out, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 157.00 psych level and the 156.86 swing low breaks the London rising higher-low chain
A close above the 157.10 session high brings the 157.254 asia rebound high and the 157.456 asian high into view; that zone is where intervention rhetoric has capped
Loss of the 156.649 london low reopens the 156.375 Asia drop low
10:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 61 · price 157.053
London higher-low chain inside the wide Asian range, capped below the 157.254 lower high.
Asia sold off from 157.456 to a 156.375 low as US yields slid and Katayama's intervention warnings lifted the yen. London has since printed higher lows off the 156.649 swing low and reclaimed the 157.00 psych level. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asia drop, with the 157.254 lower high overhead.
Support: 157.00, 156.86, 156.649
Resistance: 157.099, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
A close back below 157.00 psych and the 156.86 london hl trendline breaks the London higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 157.10 session high brings the 157.254 lower high and the 78.6% fib into view
Loss of the 156.649 swing low reopens the Asian range floor at 156.375
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; the 157.456 prior high marks the top of the Asian range
09:46 UTC
Asia downtrend stalling, London recovery · RSI 58 · price 157.074
Lower high 157.25 after Asia low, then London higher low 156.65; range contracting.
Asia sold off from the 157.46 Asia high to a 156.38 Asia low on US-Japan intervention talk and softer US yields. The rebound capped at the 157.25 swing high, and London then printed a higher low at 156.65. Price has reclaimed the 157.00 psych level and is retesting the 61.8% retrace near 157.04, with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 157.00, 156.649, 156.375
Resistance: 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 157.46 Asia high
Loss of the 156.65 london low breaks the London higher-low trendline and reopens the 156.38 Asia low
Failure to hold the 157.00 psych keeps price inside the 156.65–157.25 range
ADP 12:15 GMT and core PCE 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Tankan at 23:50 UTC is the next risk
Lower highs since yesterday; London higher low at 156.65 after Asian flush.
Asia flushed from the 157.30s to the 156.38 asian low on the Katayama-Bessent intervention talk. London set a higher low at 156.65 and has climbed back to the 157.00 round number, which is also the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 157.25 asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 56, ATR runs about 14 pips, and the 157.08 london high is the immediate cap.
Support: 156.86, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.08, 157.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.08 london high opens the 157.25 asian high
Loss of the higher low line near 156.86 puts the 156.65 london low and the 156.38 asian low back in focus
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Any escalation in Japan-US intervention rhetoric could override intraday structure
Lower high at 157.254, higher low at 156.649; compressing into 157.00.
The Asian-session selloff on Katayama–Bessent cooperation talk and slipping US yields ran from the 157.456 asia high to the 156.375 asian low. The rebound capped at the 157.254 swing high. The London open dip then held a higher low at 156.649, the london low, and price is back retesting the 157.00 psych/EMA50 area with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 156.86, 156.649, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.254 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 157.456 asia high back in view
Loss of the 156.86 micro low, then the 156.649 london low, breaks the higher-lows trendline
A break of the 156.375 asian low would extend the Asia downleg
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read; intervention headlines remain a two-way risk
09:02 UTC
Post-Asia selloff, recovering in range · RSI 51 · price 156.995
Higher low at 156.65, capped at 157.00.
Asia session dropped from the 157.46 asia high to a 156.38 asia low on Katayama's intervention warnings. The rebound stalled at the 157.25 swing high. London printed a higher low at 156.65 (london low), and the pair is back pressing the 157.00 psych level near the 61.8% of the London leg. Price is sitting on EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 156.86, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.00, 157.25, 157.46
What it said to watch
ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close above 157.00 psych opens the 157.25 swing high
Rejection at 157.00 psych followed by a break of the 156.86 higher low returns focus to the 156.65 london low
Loss of the 156.65 london low exposes the 156.38 asia low
Recovery through the 157.25 swing high puts the 157.46 asia high back in view
08:31 UTC
Post-Asia selloff, recovering in a tightening range · RSI 47 · price 156.969
Lower high 157.25, higher low 156.65, compressing below 157.00.
USDJPY shed ~106 pips in the Asia session from the 157.43 Asia high to the 156.38 Asia low on sliding US yields and Katayama's intervention warnings, then bounced to a 157.25 lower high. Early London printed a higher low at 156.65 off the rising lows, and price is now retesting the 157.00 round number, which sits with EMA50 at the 61.8% of the Asia drop.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.00, 157.25, 157.43
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.00 round number and the 157.25 lower high breaks the compression; 157.43 Asia high is next
Loss of the 156.65 higher low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 156.38 Asia low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh Tokyo intervention rhetoric could override the M15 structure
Lower highs from 157.25 rebound high; London low 156.65 rejected.
Katayama's FX-cooperation remarks drove a ~100-pip Asia session slide to the 156.375 asian low. The soft Japan IP print then fed a rebound to the 157.254 rebound high, and lower highs followed. London open dipped to 156.649 near the 61.8% fib of that rebound and was rejected, with price now pressing the 157.00 psych level.
Support: 156.649, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.05 (psych area, last lower high) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 157.25 rebound high
Loss of the 156.65 london low reopens the 156.375 asian low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF or intervention headlines remain a source of abrupt JPY moves
08:01 UTC
Corrective pullback within wider Asia range · RSI 46 · price 156.862
Lower highs from 157.25 rebound high, London low at 156.65 holding.
The Tokyo-hours slide on Katayama's FX-cooperation remarks bottomed at the 156.38 asia low. The IP-miss rebound stalled at the 157.25 rebound high and rolled into lower highs, with the latest lower high at 157.05. London open swept the 156.70 low to a 156.65 london low, near the 61.8% of the Asia rebound fib, and snapped back to 156.86; RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s with ATR around 17 pips.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.05, 157.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.65 london low exposes the 156.38 asia low
M15 close above the 157.05 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 157.25 rebound high back in play
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF or intervention headlines can override the intraday structure
Lower highs off 157.254 swing high; London low 156.649 rejected.
The Asia session slide on Katayama/Bessent intervention rhetoric bottomed at the 156.375 asia low. Price rebounded to a 157.254 swing high, then printed lower highs into London open. The first hour of London set a new session low at 156.649, which was rejected back to 156.86. Price is still capped below 157.00 psych, the prior-day low, and a descending trendline off 157.254.
Support: 156.649, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and 157.00 psych breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 156.649 london low exposes the 156.375 asia low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the Asia rebound · RSI 41 · price 156.697
Lower highs at 157.25 and 157.05, testing session lows into London open.
Asia session saw a roughly 100-pip slide from 157.43 to the 156.38 asian low as the yen firmed on intervention rhetoric. The rebound was rejected at the 157.25 swing high, a lower high followed at 157.05, and price is now back below 157.00 psych and through the 61.8% fib of that rebound, pressing the session low near 156.67 early in London.
Support: 156.55, 156.38
Resistance: 157.00, 157.05, 157.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.55 swing low exposes the 156.38 asian low
Recovery above the 157.05 lower high breaks the trendline and the lower-high sequence; 157.00 psych is the first cap
Acceptance back above the 157.25 swing high negates the Asia downtrend read
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Down after Asian slide, rebound fading · RSI 48 · price 156.842
Lower highs below 157.254, testing mid-fib zone.
The Asia session slide ran 108 pips from 157.456 to the 156.375 asian low as Katayama/Bessent intervention rhetoric kept the yen bid. The rebound stalled at the 157.254 swing high, then printed a lower high at 157.046, rejected at the 61.8% fib of the Asia slide. London open finds price at 156.84 between the 38.2% and 50% retracements, with RSI(14) near 48 and a descending line of lower highs overhead.
Support: 156.738, 156.55, 156.375
Resistance: 157.046, 157.254
What it said to watch
Break of the 156.738 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.55 base
Loss of the 156.375 asian low resumes the session downtrend
M15 close above the 157.046 lower high voids the fading-rebound read and puts the 157.254 swing high back in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fresh Katayama/Bessent intervention headlines remain a spike risk
Asian range 156.375–157.254; higher low at 156.738, capped at round number.
The Asia session drove a 108-pip slide from 157.456 to the 156.375 asian low as intervention rhetoric kept the yen bid. The rebound was rejected at the 157.254 asian high, and the pullback held a 156.738 swing low near the 61.8% of the rebound fib, printing rising lows. Price is pinned just under the 157.00 round number into London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 156.738, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.00 round number and then the 157.254 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Failure to hold the 156.738 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 156.375 asian low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 37 · price 156.817
Lower highs after 81% retrace of Asia drop.
Asia session sold about 108 pips from the 157.46 pre-drop high to 156.38 as intervention rhetoric kept the yen bid. The rebound stalled at the 157.25 bounce high, and a lower-highs sequence has since pushed price back under the 157.00 round number. Price is at 156.82 near the 38.2% level of the Asia drop fib, with RSI(14) at 37 heading into London open.
Support: 156.738, 156.552, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
A close below the 156.74 session low extends the lower-lows chain toward the 156.55 higher low and the 156.38 asia low
A reclaim of the 157.00 round number and the lower-highs trendline puts the 157.25 bounce high back in play
A move above 157.25 cancels the lower-highs sequence and opens the path toward the 157.46 pre-drop high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range
06:31 UTC
Asia sell-off, partial rebound now fading · RSI 53 · price 156.932
Lower highs below 157.00 after rebound off 156.375.
The Asia session broke below yesterday's 156.98 low. Price slid from the 157.456 asia high to the 156.375 asia low as the yen firmed on renewed Katayama/Bessent intervention rhetoric. The rebound stalled at the 157.254 rebound high, and supply has capped each retest of the 157.00 psych level since. Ahead of London open, price is sitting on the 38.2% rebound fib, just above the 156.86 swing low.
Support: 156.86, 156.55, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.00 psych reopens the 157.254 rebound high
Failure to hold the 156.86 swing low exposes the rebound fib 50% at 156.81, then the 156.55 higher low
A break of the 156.375 asia low confirms a lower-low sequence
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print is the outsized-reaction risk per the digest
Lower highs below 157.00 after Asia-session slide and 80% retrace.
Katayama's intervention rhetoric drove an Asia-session slide through the 157.00 round number to the 156.375 asian low. The rebound stalled at the 157.254 bounce high, and price has slipped back below 157.00 and EMA20 into London open, sitting near the 50% retrace of the Asia drop, with lower highs capping from the 157.456 asia top.
Support: 156.862, 156.552, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.00 round number and the 157.254 bounce high would neutralise the lower-highs read
Break of the 156.862 pullback low exposes the 156.552 higher low and the 156.375 asian low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Asia sell-off, lower high at 157.25 after deep retrace.
Asia session dropped 108 pips from the 157.46 asia high to the 156.38 asia low as the yen firmed on renewed intervention warnings from Katayama, breaking yesterday's 156.98 low. The bounce retraced about 78.6% of the sell-off fib, but was rejected at the 157.25 rebound high, and price is now pivoting just under the 157.00 round number ahead of London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 45, with ATR(14) around 15 pips.
Support: 156.80, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.25 rebound high reopens the 157.46 asia high
Failure to hold the 156.80 swing low (38.2% fib) exposes the 156.38 asia low
Acceptance above the 157.00 round number would neutralise the rejection
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tankan at 23:50 UTC is a further yen-side risk
05:46 UTC
Post-drop rebound fading, lower high in place · RSI 54 · price 156.981
Asia selloff broke prior low; retrace capped at lower high.
Asia session dropped about 108 pips from the 157.456 pre-drop high to a 156.375 session low on Katayama's intervention warnings, breaking yesterday's 156.976 prior low. The rebound retraced roughly 80% of the drop before rejection at the 157.254 lower high, and price is now back at the prior low and 157.00 psych late in Asian hours.
Support: 156.976, 156.552, 156.375
Resistance: 157.254, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.976 prior low exposes the 156.552 higher low, then the 156.375 session low
Close above the 157.254 lower high negates the rejection and reopens the 157.456 pre-drop high
London open in ~1.5h could expand the session range; ATR near 15 pips
MoF intervention data today, then US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Sweep of 156.50 low reclaimed; rebound capped at 157.25, below 157.46 Asian high.
Asia sold off from the 157.46 Asian high to the 156.38 session low on yen intervention fears, brushing aside weak Japan IP. That move swept the 156.50 Monday low, and the dip was quickly reclaimed. A higher low formed at 156.55, then the rebound stalled at the 157.25 rebound high near the 78.6% of the Asia drop fib; price is now back on the 157.00 psych level, between EMA20 (~156.96) and EMA50 (~157.09), with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 157.00, 156.55, 156.38
Resistance: 157.25, 157.46, 157.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.00 psych exposes the 156.55 higher low, then the 156.38 session low
M15 close above the 157.25 rebound high reopens the 157.46 Asian high, with the 157.71 prior high beyond
MoF intervention data today and US ADP/core PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Recovering from Tokyo selloff, higher lows · RSI 63 · price 157.128
V-shaped rebound from 156.375, retesting the 157.25 breakdown zone.
Tokyo hours saw a 108-pip drop from the 157.456 Asian high to 156.375 on yen intervention fears. Weak Japan IP data did not offset that pressure. Price then built a higher low at 156.552 and climbed back above the 157.00 round number to a 157.25 session high, near the 78.6% fib of the drop. RSI(14) is around 63 and price is hovering just above EMA50.
Support: 157.00, 156.552, 156.375
Resistance: 157.254, 157.456, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 session high opens the 157.456 Asian high, with the 157.713 prior high beyond
Loss of 157.00 round number and the higher-low trendline puts 156.55 back in play; below that the 156.375 Asian low
MoF intervention data today, plus US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
London open in about 2h is the first test of whether the Tokyo drop fib 78.6% caps the rebound
05:02 UTC
Sharp recovery after Asia selloff, momentum fading · RSI 57 · price 157.128
Higher lows from 156.38 low, capped at 157.25 rebound high.
Asia session saw a 108-pip slide from the 157.45 Asia high to the 156.38 Asia low as Katayama's intervention warnings lifted the yen. A stair-step recovery of higher lows along rising support has since retraced roughly 80% of the drop, with a wick rejection at the 157.25 rebound high. Price now sits just above the 157.00 psych level and the 61.8% of the Asia drop fib at 157.04 ahead of London open.
Support: 157.00, 156.55, 156.375
Resistance: 157.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 rebound high puts the 157.45 Asia high back in play
Failure to hold 157.00 psych exposes the 156.55 higher low and the rising support line
Break of the 156.38 Asia low resumes the Asia selloff structure
MoF intervention data plus US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Sharp Asia sell-off, now recovering · RSI 53 · price 156.98
Higher low at 156.55, retesting 157.00 from below.
The Asia session slid 108 pips from the 157.46 asia high to a 156.375 session low as intervention talk lifted the yen. Price then printed a higher low at 156.55 and cleared the 156.755 breakout pivot. It is now back at the 157.00 round number, just under the 61.8% fib, with price above EMA20 but below EMA50.
Support: 156.755, 156.552, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.24, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.00 round number and the 61.8% fib opens the 157.24 breakdown area, then the 157.456 asia high
Rejection at 157.00 followed by a break of the 156.755 breakout pivot would signal fading momentum
Losing the 156.552 higher low breaks the rising trendline and brings the 156.375 session low back into view
MoF intervention data today, plus US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Sharp Asia sell-off, corrective rebound in progress · RSI 48 · price 156.93
Impulse down from 157.46 to 156.38, higher low at 156.55, now retesting 157.00 from below.
Intervention fears after Katayama's yen remarks drove a Tokyo-morning drop from the 157.46 Asia high through yesterday's 156.98 low to a 156.38 session low. The rebound has retraced about half the move and is pressing the 157.00 psych level from below, with a higher low at 156.55 and RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 156.55, 156.38
Resistance: 157.00, 157.04, 157.46
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance above the 157.04 61.8% fib retracement reopens the 157.46 asia high
A rejection at 157.00 psych followed by a break of the 156.55 higher low exposes the 156.38 session low
MoF intervention data today, then US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
London open in under 3h tests whether the Asian range extremes hold
Range break lower, higher low forming off the session low.
The Asia session selloff on MoF verbal warnings took out the 156.98 prior low and 157.00. It ran to a 156.38 session low before a rebound printed a higher low at 156.55. Price now sits at the 156.89 bounce high, where EMA20 and the 50% retrace of the Asia drop converge, with RSI(14) back to 47.
Support: 156.55, 156.38
Resistance: 156.89, 156.98, 157.24
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.55 higher low exposes the 156.38 session low again
M15 close above the 156.98 prior low and 157.00 reclaims the broken range floor, with the 157.24 asian base next
Rejection at the 156.89 bounce high / 50% retrace keeps the downtrend read intact
MoF intervention disclosure today, plus US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia sell-off to 156.38, then higher low at 156.55 and minor higher high.
The Asia session sell-off ran from 157.45 through the prior low at 156.98 and 157.00 to a session low of 156.38, as MoF intervention warnings kept JPY bid. The rebound has since printed a higher low at 156.55, cleared the prior swing at 156.76 and is now testing the 50% fib near 156.92 just under EMA20, with RSI(14) back to 46.
Support: 156.552, 156.375
Resistance: 156.916, 156.976, 157.043
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 156.98 prior low and 157.00 would reach the 61.8% fib at 157.04, turning the bounce into a deeper retracement
Rejection at the 50% fib followed by a loss of the 156.55 higher low would break the rising lows and reopen the 156.38 session low
A slip back under the 156.76 prior swing would weaken the rebound structure
MoF intervention data today, then US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off lows · RSI 33 · price 156.649
Asia-session breakdown below Tuesday's range low, lower highs intact.
Asia session sold off from the 157.46 Asian high, through Tuesday's 156.98 low and the 156.50 psych level, to a 156.38 session low. MoF warnings kept intervention fears live and the yen bid. The bounce stalled at the 156.76 bounce high, just under the 38.2% retracement of the selloff, and price now sits between that level and the psych level.
Support: 156.50, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.00 round number neutralises the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 156.50 psych level re-exposes the 156.38 session low
A push through the 156.76 bounce high and the 38.2% retracement shifts the move into a deeper correction
MoF intervention disclosure today and US ADP/PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off lows · RSI 34 · price 156.686
Asian range broken lower, lower highs; bounce reclaiming 156.50.
Asia session broke the overnight 157.24–157.46 range and yesterday's 156.98 prior low as MoF intervention warnings kept JPY bid. The slide ran about 108 pips to a 156.375 session low, briefly sweeping Monday's 156.50 low. The latest bounce reclaimed 156.50 and cleared the falling trendline, stalling at a 156.72 bounce high just under the 38.2% fib near 156.79.
Support: 156.50, 156.375
Resistance: 156.715, 156.976, 157.237
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the Monday low at 156.50 reopens the 156.375 session low
Acceptance above the 156.72 bounce high and the 38.2% fib at 156.79 puts the prior low at 156.98 and 157.00 in play
The Asian range low at 157.24 is the upper limit for any deeper retrace of the drop
MoF intervention disclosure today could materially shift this read; US ADP/PCE follow at 12:15–12:30 UTC
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia selloff · RSI 26 · price 156.525
Range break lower, lower highs and lower lows since 157.46.
Tokyo hours broke the prior day's 156.98–157.71 range lower. The Asia selloff ran about 108 pips from 157.46 to the 156.375 session low as MoF intervention warnings and US-Japan coordination kept JPY bid. Price is pausing around Monday's 156.50 low with RSI(14) near 26, and the 156.80 lower high caps the bounce so far.
Support: 156.50, 156.375
Resistance: 156.80, 157.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.80 lower high (38.2% of the Asia selloff) opens a retrace toward the 157.00 round number
Failure to hold the 156.375 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Sustained trade back below Monday's 156.50 low confirms acceptance under it
MoF intervention disclosure today could materially shift this read
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC): a hot print is the main counterweight to JPY strength
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, stretched after Asia selloff · RSI 18 · price 156.451
Lower-high/lower-low chain below broken Asian range.
The Asia session broke below the 157.24–157.46 Asian range and the 156.98 prior low. Price extended a lower-high line down to a 156.375 session low, with MoF jawboning keeping intervention risk live. RSI(14) near 18 is stretched, and price is sitting just under the 156.50 Monday low.
Support: 156.375, 156.00
Resistance: 156.50, 156.80, 156.98
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance back above the 156.50 Monday low would weaken the breakdown read
A close above the 156.80 swing high (38.2% of the session drop fib) breaks the lower-high line
Failure to hold the 156.375 session low exposes the 156.00 round number
A reclaim of the 156.98 prior low would put price back inside yesterday's range
MoF intervention disclosure today and US ADP / Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Downside range break in Asia session, lower highs from 157.46.
Tokyo-morning selling broke USDJPY out of yesterday's 157.00–157.70 range. It fell about 90 pips from the 157.46 session high to a 156.55 session low, cutting through the 156.98 prior low. The yen stayed bid on intervention premium despite the weak Japan IP print. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold, the 156.80 bounce high capped the first rebound under a falling trendline, and the 156.50 round number sits just below.
Support: 156.55, 156.50
Resistance: 156.80, 156.98, 157.46
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 156.98 prior low and 157.00 (50% of the Asia drop fib) would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 156.50 round number extends the lower-low sequence from the 156.55 session low
A break of the falling trendline and the 156.80 bounce high would signal the Asia leg is exhausting
MoF intervention data due today and US ADP / core PCE at 12:15 / 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, sharp Asia leg lower · RSI 26 · price 156.768
Asia breakdown below prior-day low, lower highs.
Asia session broke Tuesday's range, falling about 84 pips from the 157.456 Asian high to a 156.614 session low and cutting through the 156.976 prior low. The move fits the intervention-threat JPY bid in the digest. The rebound has stalled at a 156.803 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 26 after a brief dip below 20 and ATR(14) around 12 pips.
Support: 156.614, 156.50
Resistance: 156.803, 156.976, 157.456
What it said to watch
A close back above the 156.976 prior low, which sits near the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-low leg, would undercut the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 156.614 session low exposes the 156.50 round number
Acceptance above the 156.803 bounce high shifts the tape into a retracement rather than a continuation
MoF intervention data due today (time unconfirmed) could extend or reverse this leg
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled volatility risk
Asian range and prior low broken, lower highs through Tokyo morning.
A Tokyo selloff from the 157.46 Asian high broke through the Asian low at 157.24 and yesterday's 156.98 prior low, with the session low at 156.61 and RSI(14) near 18. JPY is firm on the intervention threat and BoJ-hike bets despite weak IP and retail data. Price is now pausing just above the 156.50 round number.
Support: 156.614, 156.50
Resistance: 156.976, 157.239
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 156.98 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 156.61 session low exposes the 156.50 round number
Asian low at 157.24 caps any retracement of the Tokyo selloff
MoF intervention data due today could materially shift this read
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side catalysts
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 31 · price 157.055
Asian range broken lower in Tokyo, pressing 157.00.
Tokyo session broke below the Asian range low at 157.24, extending the lower highs from the NY high at 157.70 and pressing the 157.00 round number, just above Tuesday's low at 156.98. Soft Japanese IP and retail data were ignored as intervention talk keeps the yen firm. RSI(14) sits near 31, weak but not stretched.
Support: 157.00, 156.976
Resistance: 157.237, 157.456, 157.695
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.98 Tuesday low confirms a lower-low and opens the 156.50 dip low
Reclaim of the 157.24 Asia low puts price back inside the Asian range
A bounce into 157.18–157.29 (38.2–61.8% of the Asia drop fib) is the area to watch for rejection
Break above the 157.46 Asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline
MoF intervention data today, then ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 157.70; Asian range broken to the downside early in Tokyo.
Early Tokyo slid from the 157.456 Asian high through the NY low at 157.161, printing a 157.038 session low near the fix before stalling just above the 157.00 round number. RSI(14) sits near 33 and the descending trendline off 157.695 is intact, with the yen firm on intervention talk despite soft Japanese IP and retail data.
Support: 157.038, 156.976
Resistance: 157.161, 157.456
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.976 prior low breaks the 157.00 round number and extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 157.161 NY low shifts the Tokyo drop into a false break
Break of the descending trendline and the 157.456 Asian high invalidates the lower-high read
MoF intervention data today could materially move this read; ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC follow
Mid-range recovery inside the 156.98–157.71 day range.
Early Asia session trades mid-range after a 157.713 london high to 156.976 day low swing. A higher lows chain from 157.237 has retraced about 40% of the NY sell-off to 157.161, but the asia high at 157.456 capped the push around the soft Japan retail sales print, with the asia low at 157.339 holding and RSI(14) neutral near 52. A yield-driven USD bid is offsetting the JPY intervention threat.
Support: 157.339, 157.161, 156.976
Resistance: 157.456, 157.53, 157.713
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.456 asia high opens the 157.53 swing high, near the 61.8% of the NY sell-off
Loss of the 157.339 asia low and the higher lows trendline returns focus to the 157.161 ny low, then the 156.976 day low
MoF intervention data today (release time not confirmed) could materially shift this read. The 157.713 london high is the top of the day range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the next USD catalysts for the range
00:16 UTC
Intraday grind higher inside a flat day range · RSI 67 · price 157.431
Asia higher-low chain off 157.16, within 156.98–157.71 range.
Early Asia session is grinding higher off the 157.16 ny low in a clean higher-low sequence, now sitting at the 50% retracement of the NY decline from 157.70 near 157.43. Tuesday's London spike to the 157.71 day high and the false break under 157.00 to the 156.98 day low both reversed, so the day range holds with JPY intervention rhetoric keeping moves contained.
Support: 157.38, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.52 prior high clears the fib 61.8% and opens the 157.70 day high
Break of the 157.38 higher low ends the Asia higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 157.16 ny low exposes the 156.98 day low and 157.00 psych
MoF intervention data Wed (time unconfirmed) and ADP/Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Sideways, mild recovery off NY low · RSI 54 · price 157.427
Higher lows off 157.16 inside a 156.98–157.71 day range.
Tuesday swung inside 156.98–157.71. The London spike to the tue high reversed, and the NY rebound faded to the ny low at 157.16, in line with the digest's read of USD/JPY pinned as intervention threats offset Fed hike pricing. Early Asia has printed a higher swing low at 157.24 and is back at the 50% retrace of the NY fade near 157.43, with bars compressed to roughly 5–6 pips.
Support: 157.24, 157.16, 156.98
Resistance: 157.52, 157.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.52 pivot high opens a retest of the 157.70 tue high
Break of the 157.24 swing low and rising trendline returns focus to the 157.16 ny low, then 156.98 tue low
MoF intervention data Wed, then ADP and Core PCE from 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read