USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 28 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Flat after London sell-off and NY recovery · RSI 46 · price 157.372
Tight range 157.35–157.47 above rising lows since London trough.
London flushed USD/JPY to 156.505 as Mimura's intervention warning lifted JPY. Rising lows at 156.847 and 156.993 have held since, but the NY spike to the 157.583 ny high faded and price has compressed between a 157.353 range low and 157.474 range high into early Asia, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR at about 5 pips.
Support: 157.353, 157.067
Resistance: 157.474, 157.583, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.35 range low exposes the 157.07 ny swing low and the rising lows trendline near 157.24
Close above the 157.47 range high reopens the 157.58 ny high, with Monday high 157.85 beyond
MoF or rate-check headlines can break the compression abruptly
Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS and Fedspeak are the next scheduled USD risk
23:31 UTC
Recovering from London drop, flat · RSI 50 · price 157.417
Tight range 157.35–157.47 after 65% retrace.
The London-open slide from the 157.85 Asia high to 156.51 on Mimura's intervention warnings has retraced about 65%. NY capped at the 157.58 ny high, dipped to the 156.99 ny low and recovered. Price is now compressing between the 157.35 range low and the 157.47 range high into the Tuesday Asia open. RSI(14) sits flat at 50 and ATR is only ~4.5 pips in thin rollover trade.
Support: 157.353, 156.993
Resistance: 157.474, 157.583, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 range high puts the 157.58 ny high back in play, with the 157.85 asia high beyond
Failure to hold the 157.35 range low exposes the 61.8% fib near 157.34, then the 156.99 ny low
Fresh Mimura/Katayama intervention rhetoric in Tokyo hours could repeat the London-style drop
Tuesday Fedspeak and US JOLTS later could shift the range read
23:16 UTC
Sideways, higher lows off the 156.50 London low · RSI 51 · price 157.396
Tight 157.36–157.47 box in post-NY trade below the 157.58 NY high.
The Asian high at 157.85 gave way to a London-open slide to 156.50 on Mimura's intervention message. Rising lows at 156.85 and 156.99 rebuilt price toward the NY high at 157.58, where it met rejection. Since late NY the pair has compressed in a 157.36–157.47 box, with ATR near 5 pips and RSI flat at 51 into the Asia session open.
Support: 157.36, 156.99
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 swing high reopens the 157.58 NY high, with the 157.85 Asian high beyond
Failure to hold the 157.36 range low exposes the rising-lows trendline near 157.22 and the 156.99 swing low
Any escalation in Japanese intervention rhetoric (Mimura/Katayama, rate checks) could break the range abruptly during Tokyo hours
23:01 UTC
Flat after NY recovery, momentum neutral · RSI 55 · price 157.407
Tight post-NY range 157.36–157.47, higher lows since the NY low.
London open broke the Asian range and slid to 156.50 on Mimura's intervention message. NY rebuilt to a 157.58 NY high, and the NY low at 156.99 kept a higher-low chain intact along the rising NY trendline. Since the NY close, price has compressed between the 157.36 range floor and the 157.47 range top into early Asia. ATR has shrunk to about 6 pips, and price sits near the top of the London-NY swing retracement.
Support: 157.36, 156.99
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.36 range floor exposes the 156.99 NY low and breaks the higher-low trendline
Close above the 157.47 range top reopens the 157.58 NY high, with the 157.85 Asian high beyond
Fresh Japan or US intervention rhetoric in Tokyo hours could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Recovering from London low, momentum flat · RSI 45 · price 157.385
Higher lows since London low; tight post-NY range 157.36–157.47.
Mimura's intervention warning drove the London open drop from the 157.85 Asia high to 156.51. NY built higher lows but stalled at the 157.58 NY high, near the 78.6% of the Asia high–London low fib. Post-NY trade is compressing between the 157.36 range low and 157.47 range high, where the rising trendline from the London low now meets the range low, with ATR contracting.
Support: 157.36, 157.07, 157.00
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.36 range low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 157.07 higher low, then the 157.00 round number
A close above the 157.47 range high reopens the 157.58 NY high and the 157.85 Asia high
Tokyo open in about 1.5h brings liquidity back; any escalation in US-Japan intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Recovery off London low, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 157.37
Higher lows since London, tight 157.36–157.47 range post-NY.
Mimura's intervention warning drove the London flush to 156.51. Price then rebuilt through NY with higher lows at the 156.99 NY low and the 157.07 swing low, but the 157.58 NY high capped the move and a lower swing high formed at 157.47. Post-NY trade is thin and compressing at 157.36–157.47, holding the rising trendline and the 61.8% of the Asia-London drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 157.36, 157.07, 156.99
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.36 range low and rising trendline exposes the 157.07 swing low, then the 156.99 NY low
Close above the 157.47 swing high reopens the 157.58 NY high (78.6% of the Asia-London drop), with the 157.85 Asia high beyond
Tokyo open at 00:00 UTC and any further Mimura/Katayama intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 156.505 low, capped under 157.58 NY high.
Mimura's intervention warning drove a flush through the Asian range into London open, down to 156.505. The NY recovery was rejected at the 157.583 NY high, and the later dip held the 156.99 NY low near the 50% fib. Price is now pinned on a late base around 157.36 in thin post-NY trade, just below the 157.42 Asian low, with the 157.474 late NY high capping.
Support: 157.36, 157.193, 156.993
Resistance: 157.42, 157.474, 157.583
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.42 asian low reopens the 157.474 late ny high and 157.583 ny high
Loss of the 157.36 late base and the 157.19 swing low exposes the 156.99 ny low and the rising lows trendline
Fresh Tokyo intervention rhetoric in the Asia session could revive Monday's 100-pip ranges
Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak at 14:00 UTC could shift yield-driven flows
21:46 UTC
Recovery off London low, now flat · RSI 55 · price 157.364
Higher lows off 156.51, tight 157.35–157.47 band.
The London flush to 156.51 on Mimura's joint intervention warning has been retraced. NY spiked to 157.58 (ny high) before a drop to 156.99 (ny low), and the pair has since compressed between the 157.35 range low and 157.47 range high into the post-NY lull, holding just above the rising lows line near 157.31. The 157.85 asia high still marks the session ceiling.
Support: 157.35, 157.07, 156.99
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.35 range low and the rising lows line exposes the 157.07 swing low, then the 156.99 ny low
Break above the 157.47 range high reopens the 157.58 ny high, with the 157.85 asia high above
Asia session open is the next liquidity test of the 157.35–157.47 band
Further Mimura/Katayama intervention rhetoric remains a downside shock risk for this read
Tuesday Fedspeak and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could reset the intraday structure via yields
Higher lows from 156.50 against lower highs from 157.85, compressing.
Mimura's joint intervention warning knocked USD/JPY off the 157.85 Asia high to a 156.50 low around London open. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at the 156.85 swing low and the 156.99 higher low. The NY high at 157.58 was rejected and the 157.47 lower high capped the late session, leaving price pinned in a thin 157.35–157.47 band through rollover.
Support: 157.35, 157.00, 156.85
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 lower high and the lower-highs line reopens the 157.58 NY high
Loss of the 157.35 late low exposes the higher-lows line near 157.30, then the 157.00 higher low
Break below the 156.85 swing low undoes the recovery structure from 156.50
A reclaim of the 157.85 Asia high would put the intervention-warning drop fully retraced
Fresh Tokyo intervention rhetoric in Asia, or JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC) and Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Recovering from London flush, momentum stalling · RSI 55 · price 157.366
Higher lows since 156.51, compressed 157.35–157.47 range after NY close.
Mimura's joint-intervention message drove a London-open break of the 157.42–157.85 Asian range to 156.51. NY recovered to the 157.58 ny high, and the pullback held the 156.99 ny swing low inside the 50–61.8% fib zone. After NY close, price is pinned between the 157.35 micro floor and the 157.47 range top, above the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 157.35, 156.99
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.35 micro floor and rising trendline exposes the 156.99 ny swing low
Close above the 157.47 range top reopens the 157.58 ny high, with the 157.85 asia high above
Fresh Mimura/Katayama intervention rhetoric during the Asia session could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Recovering from London low, compressing late NY · RSI 54 · price 157.36
Higher lows from 156.99 under lower highs from 157.47, a tightening range.
London flushed below the Asian range to 156.51 as the yen firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning. NY rebuilt the move to a 157.58 NY high, and the pair is now compressing between the 157.35 ema20 area and the 157.47 late high in thin post-NY trade. Rising lows from the 157.00 NY low and a 157.20 swing low are holding the structure; RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 157.35, 157.20, 157.00
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising-lows line and the 157.35 ema20 exposes the 157.20 swing low
A break of the 157.00 NY low, the 50% of the London-NY leg, puts the London low back in focus
A close above the 157.47 late high opens the 157.58 NY high, then the 157.85 asian high
US-Iran sanctions headlines or fresh Mimura/Katayama jawboning during Asia could break the compression
20:46 UTC
Recovery from London low, stalling late NY · RSI 58 · price 157.386
Higher lows since 156.51, tight range under lower high.
Asia high at 157.85 gave way to a London selloff to 156.51 as hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning lifted the yen. NY rebuilt a higher lows trendline (156.85 higher low, 156.99 swing low near the 50% fib of the London-NY leg) and is now compressing between the 157.35 micro low and a 157.47 lower high under the 157.58 swing high, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 157.353, 156.993, 156.847
Resistance: 157.474, 157.583, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 swing high opens the 157.85 asia high
Loss of the 157.35 micro low exposes the 156.99 swing low and the higher lows trendline
Break below the 156.85 higher low negates the recovery structure from the London low
Mimura/Katayama intervention headlines into thin Asia liquidity can jolt the range; Tue JOLTS 14:00 UTC is the next US driver
20:31 UTC
Recovery from London low, momentum flattening · RSI 55 · price 157.399
Higher lows from 156.51, late-NY range 157.35–157.47 below 157.58 swing high.
London open broke the Asian range (157.65–157.85, asia high 157.85) and flushed USD/JPY to 156.51 as hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning bid the yen. Since then it has built higher lows: 156.85 swing low, the 157.00 round number and 157.19 higher low, with a rejection at the 157.58 swing high. Late NY is compressing between 157.35 and the 157.47 ny high, with RSI(14) near 55. The recovery sits above the 50% fib of the 156.51–157.58 leg.
Support: 157.19, 157.00, 156.85
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.58 swing high reopens the broken Asian range toward the 157.85 asia high
Loss of the 157.19 higher low and the 157.00 round number breaks the rising lows line and the higher-low chain
A drop through the 156.85 swing low puts the London low at 156.51 back in view
Japanese intervention jawboning (Mimura/Katayama) or US-Iran headlines during the Asia session could shift this read
20:16 UTC
Recovery from London low, now compressing · RSI 58 · price 157.406
Rising lows since 156.505, lower high at 157.474 under 157.583 NY high.
Asia peaked at 157.854 before a London-open plunge to 156.505 as hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning hit. Rising lows at 156.85 and the 156.993 swing low rebuilt the move into the 157.583 NY high. Late NY is compressing between the 157.353 late low and the 157.474 lower high, with RSI(14) near 58 and the 157.193 pullback low beneath.
Support: 157.353, 157.193, 156.993
Resistance: 157.474, 157.583, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.583 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 157.854 Asia high
Break of the 157.353 late low ends the compression and puts the 157.193 pullback low and the rising-lows line in play
Loss of the 156.993 swing low undercuts the recovery fib 50% near 157.04 and the rising-lows read
Fresh Mimura/Katayama jawboning or US-Iran sanctions headlines into Asia could repeat the London-open drop
20:01 UTC
Recovering off London low, momentum flattening · RSI 60 · price 157.396
Higher lows from 156.51, capped below 157.58 NY high.
Asia ran to the 157.85 asian high on the US yield spike, then London opened with a 135-pip drop to 156.51 as hawkish BoJ minutes and Mimura's jawboning hit. Since then the pair has built rising lows through the 156.99 higher low and 157.07 swing low. The 157.58 ny high was rejected mid-NY, and price now sits in a tight late-NY consolidation just above the 61.8% fib at 157.34, under the 157.47 late high.
Support: 157.34, 157.07, 156.99
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 ny high reopens the 157.85 asian high
Loss of the 157.34 fib 61.8 and the rising lows line near 157.20 turns focus to the 157.07 swing low
Break below the 156.99 higher low ends the recovery structure from the London low
Fresh Katayama/Mimura intervention comments or US-Iran sanctions headlines during Asia could override the range
Lower high at 157.47 vs higher low at 157.07 inside the 156.99–157.58 NY range.
Monday's gap-up Asia rally topped at the 157.85 Asian high. It then reversed at London open, as hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning drove a flush to 156.51, before NY recovered to the 157.58 NY high. Late NY is compressing between a lower high at 157.47 and a higher low at 157.07, after the Iran sanctions-relief headline briefly knocked price to the 156.99 NY low; RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 157.067, 156.993, 156.847
Resistance: 157.474, 157.583, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 157.85 Asian high
Loss of the 156.99 NY low exposes the 156.85 swing low and the recovery fib 61.8% near 156.92
US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines and Japan jawboning remain the swing drivers into the Asia session
19:31 UTC
Recovering from London low, higher lows through NY · RSI 54 · price 157.441
Higher-low chain from 156.51; capped by NY high 157.58.
London sold from the Asian high at 157.85 to 156.51 as hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning lifted the yen. NY rebuilt a higher-low trendline through 156.85, 156.99 psych and the 157.07 higher low, and price is now testing the 157.47 late high with ema20 near 157.33 below. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and the NY high at 157.58 sits on the 78.6% retracement of the Asian high to London low fib.
Support: 157.33, 157.07, 156.99
Resistance: 157.47, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 ny high clears the 78.6% fib and opens the 157.85 asian high
Loss of the 157.07 higher low and the higher-low trendline breaks the NY recovery, exposing the 156.99 psych area
Failure at the 157.47 late high keeps price inside the 157.07–157.58 NY range
US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines are the main wildcard into Asia; Tue JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
19:16 UTC
Neutral, compressing after London flush · RSI 54 · price 157.415
Higher lows from 156.85 vs lower highs from 157.58, coiling in late NY.
London open flushed from the 157.854 Asian high to 156.505 as hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning lifted the yen, and the pair has since rebuilt through a higher low at 156.85 and a 157.00 psych hold. Late NY is compressing between rising lows and lower highs, with price at 157.415 just under the 157.455 lower high, above the 157.20 swing low and below the 157.583 NY high.
Support: 157.20, 157.00, 156.85
Resistance: 157.455, 157.583, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.455 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 157.583 NY high, then the 157.854 Asian high
Loss of the 157.20 swing low and the rising lows line puts 157.00 psych and the 156.85 higher low back in play
US-Iran sanctions headlines into Asia could materially shift the USD leg of this read
19:01 UTC
Neutral, compressing after London flush · RSI 52 · price 157.396
Higher lows from 156.505 meet lower highs from 157.583; late-NY coil.
The Asian high at 157.854 gave way after the hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning. London flushed through the Asian range to 156.505. Since then the NY session has compressed between the NY low near 157.00 and the NY high at 157.583, with a higher low at 157.067 and price testing the 157.455 swing high as RSI(14) sits mid-range.
Support: 157.067, 156.993
Resistance: 157.455, 157.583, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.455 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 157.583 NY high back in focus
Loss of the 157.067 higher low and then the 156.993 NY low breaks the rising-lows sequence from the London low
Only a move through 157.583 reopens the gap toward the 157.854 Asian high
US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines could shift yields and this read before Asia
18:46 UTC
Recovering off London low, higher lows · RSI 53 · price 157.354
Higher lows off 156.51, capped by lower high 157.40 under 157.58 NY high.
London broke the Asian low at 157.42 and flushed to the 156.51 London low as hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning lifted the yen. NY recovered to 157.58 before rejection, and late-NY price is now building higher lows at 156.99 (NY low) and 157.07 (higher low) beneath the 157.40 lower high, with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR(14) around 14 pips.
Support: 157.07, 156.99, 156.51
Resistance: 157.40, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.40 lower high puts the 157.58 NY high back in play, with the 157.85 Asia high beyond
Break of the 157.07 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 157.04 50% fib and the 156.99 NY low
Loss of the 156.99 NY low reopens the 156.51 London low
US-Iran sanctions headlines or fresh Japanese jawboning during Asia session could shift the read; JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled US risk
18:31 UTC
Two-way, lower highs off the NY high · RSI 48 · price 157.28
Post-London flush recovery capped; compressing 157.07–157.40 late NY.
Monday's Asia high at 157.85 gave way at the London open to a flush to 156.51 as JPY firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention jawboning. The NY rally faded from the 157.58 NY high, and the NY low at 156.99 held near the 50% of the London low–NY high move. Price now sits at 157.28, compressing between the 157.07 swing low and the 157.40 lower high under a descending lower-high line.
Support: 157.07, 156.99, 156.85
Resistance: 157.40, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.40 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 157.58 NY high back in view, with the 157.85 Asia high beyond
Failure to hold the 157.07 swing low and the 156.99 NY low exposes the 156.85 higher low from London
Tuesday's JOLTS and Williams/Waller Fedspeak, plus any fresh Japanese intervention jawboning, could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Rebound from London low, stalling in late NY · RSI 48 · price 157.262
Higher lows since London; lower high at 157.40 inside a 157.00–157.58 NY range.
Mimura's intervention remarks knocked USD/JPY from the 157.85 Asian high to a 156.51 day low in London. The pair has since recovered on a London HL at 156.85 to a 157.58 NY high, then printed a lower high at 157.40. The NY low near 157.00 has held twice at roughly the 50% retracement of the London-NY leg, and price is now pinned near EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 157.00, 156.85, 156.51
Resistance: 157.40, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.00 NY low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 156.85 London HL
Clearance of the 157.40 lower high reopens the 157.58 NY high; the 157.85 Asian high sits above
Further Japanese intervention jawboning in the Asia session could revisit the 156.51 day low
JOLTS and Fedspeak (Williams, Waller) on Tue could shift the read
18:01 UTC
Rebounding from London flush, now flat · RSI 50 · price 157.234
Higher lows since 156.51 vs lower highs from 157.58, compressing.
London open took out the Asian range and flushed to the 156.51 london low on Mimura's intervention remarks. The NY rebound was rejected at the 157.58 ny high, and price is now late in NY hours, pinned between a 157.07 higher low and a 157.40 lower high, with RSI(14) flat near 50. Price is holding above the rising support line from 156.51, which keeps the 157.85 asia high as the upper reference.
Support: 157.07, 156.99, 156.51
Resistance: 157.40, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.07 higher low and rising support line puts the 156.99 ny low back in play
Close above the 157.40 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 157.58 ny high
Loss of 156.99 exposes the 156.51 london low; a push through 157.58 targets a retest of the 157.85 asia high
Fresh Japanese intervention or rate-check headlines could materially shift this read
JOLTS and Fedspeak on Tue 14:00 UTC onward are the next scheduled USD risk
17:46 UTC
Choppy, no directional impulse after London selloff · RSI 51 · price 157.219
Late-NY range 157.00–157.40 below a lower high.
Mimura's intervention warning in London knocked USD/JPY from the 157.85 Asia high to the 156.505 London low. The NY rebound met rejection at the 157.58 NY high and has since chopped between the 157.00 round number and a 157.40 lower high, with the 38.2–50% retracement of the London low–NY high fib holding. After London close, RSI(14) sits near 51 and price is just under both EMAs, with no setup in play.
Support: 157.00, 156.85, 156.505
Resistance: 157.40, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.00 round number exposes the 156.85 midday low and the 61.8% fib
M15 close above the 157.40 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 157.58 NY high
Fresh Japanese intervention remarks, like those that drove the London drop, could break the range abruptly
17:02 UTC
Rebounding off London low, capped below Asian high · RSI 56 · price 157.311
Higher lows since the London low; 157.58 NY high still unbroken.
Mimura's intervention warning in London drove a 135-pip slide from the 157.85 Asian high to the 156.51 London low. Since then, higher lows at 156.85 and 156.99 have built a recovery. Late NY, price is pressing the fib 61.8 at 157.34 after the rejection at the 157.58 NY high, and the 16:15 UTC flush to the 156.99 swing low was fully reclaimed.
Support: 156.99, 156.85, 156.51
Resistance: 157.34, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.34 fib 61.8 reopens the 157.58 NY high
Failure to hold the 156.99 swing low breaks the higher-low chain toward 156.85
Loss of the 156.85 higher low exposes the 156.51 London low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Choppy, NY rebound rejected · RSI 45 · price 157.081
Higher-low chain broken, price at 50% of London-low rebound.
London open took USDJPY from the 157.85 Asian high to a 156.51 london low on Mimura's intervention remarks. The NY rebound built higher lows to a 157.58 ny high before rejection and a late-NY flush to a 156.99 drop low. That flush broke the higher-low chain and left price near the 50% level of the rebound fib (~157.04), RSI(14) around 45.
Support: 156.99, 156.85, 156.51
Resistance: 157.25, 157.58
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 156.99 drop low and the 156.85 swing low confirms a lower-low back toward the 156.51 london low
M15 close back above the 157.25 swing high restores the higher-low structure and brings the 157.58 ny high back into view
Fresh Japanese intervention rhetoric remains the main intraday driver
16:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, pulling back · RSI 56 · price 157.348
Higher lows off 156.50 London low, retesting rising trendline.
After the 157.85 Asian high, London flushed to 156.50 on Mimura intervention talk. The recovery built higher lows at 156.85 and 157.04 and stalled at the 157.58 NY high. Late in the NY session, price is back on the rising trendline and EMA50 near 157.31, with RSI(14) cooling to about 56.
Support: 157.31, 157.04, 156.85
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.31 trendline exposes the 157.04 NY low, which sits at the 50% fib of the recovery
Loss of the 156.85 higher low undoes the recovery structure
Break of the 157.58 NY high puts the 157.85 Asian high back in play
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any fresh Tokyo intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
V-shaped recovery, stalling below the NY high · RSI 61 · price 157.44
Higher lows off 156.51, capped at 157.58, pullback holding 157.37.
The Asian session pushed to the 157.85 Asian high on broad USD strength, then London flushed to 156.51 after Mimura's intervention remarks. NY has since rebuilt the drop, with the 156.85 higher low and a rising lows line underneath, but met rejection at the 157.58 NY high near the 78.6% drop retrace. Price is now holding the 157.37 pullback low mid-NY session.
Support: 157.37, 157.20, 156.85
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 NY high reopens the 157.85 Asian high
Failure to hold the 157.37 pullback low exposes the rising lows line near 157.20
Loss of the 156.85 higher low would break the recovery structure
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any fresh Tokyo intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
Higher lows off London low, capped at 78.6% retrace.
The Asia rally topped at the 157.85 Asia high, then London broke down to 156.50 on Mimura's intervention remarks. NY rebuilt on higher lows to a 157.58 NY high near the 78.6% retrace of that drop, where it was rejected; price now holds above the 157.37 pullback low with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 157.37, 157.04
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.58 NY high opens the path to the 157.85 Asia high
Loss of the 157.37 pullback low, then the 157.04 higher low, breaks the NY higher-low sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any fresh Tokyo intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian range · RSI 62 · price 157.399
Higher lows off london low, NY high rejected at 157.58.
Around London open, Mimura's joint-intervention remarks drove a slide through the asia low to the london low at 156.50. Price has since built a higher-low chain into NY, but the rally was rejected at the ny high of 157.58. Price is now retesting the Asian range low near 157.42 from beneath, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 14 pips.
Support: 157.04, 156.85, 156.50
Resistance: 157.42, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the asia low at 157.42 reopens the ny high at 157.58, with the asia high at 157.85 above that
A close below the higher-low trendline, near 157.23 now, exposes the 157.04 higher low at the 50% fib
Loss of the 156.85 swing low undoes the recovery structure and reopens the london low at 156.50
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC or fresh Tokyo intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off day low · RSI 70 · price 157.478
HL chain 156.51 → 156.85 → 157.04; NY high 157.58 capping.
USD/JPY has rebuilt from the 156.51 day low set in early London after Mimura's joint-intervention remarks. Higher lows at 156.85 and 157.04 fed a NY push to the 157.58 NY high, which stalled near the 78.6% retrace of the Asia high-to-low drop. RSI(14) sits near 70 with price holding above the 157.31 breakout area late in the NY session.
Support: 157.31, 157.04, 156.51
Resistance: 157.58, 157.68, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.31 breakout area exposes the 157.04 higher low and the rising trendline
Clearance of the 157.58 NY high opens the 157.68 asia pivot, then the 157.85 asia high
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift this read; fresh intervention headlines risk a revisit of the 156.51 day low
15:01 UTC
Recovering from London sell-off, higher lows · RSI 68 · price 157.334
HH/HL chain off 156.50, at 61.8% retrace.
London broke below the Asian range and ran to 156.50 on Mimura's intervention warning. The first hours of NY have printed higher lows at the 156.85 swing low and the 157.04 higher low, and price is now testing the 61.8% fib of the 157.85 asia high to 156.50 drop, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 157.04, 156.85, 156.50
Resistance: 157.34, 157.42, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 157.34 and the 157.42 asia low reopens the path toward the 157.85 asia high
Rejection at 157.34, followed by a break of the 157.04 higher low, breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 156.85 swing low
Fresh intervention headlines could retest the 156.50 london low quickly
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift this read if she pushes back on further hikes
14:46 UTC
Recovering off London low, capped below 157.25 · RSI 57 · price 157.21
Higher lows 156.50 / 156.85 / 157.04 under a flat 157.25 top.
The Asian high at 157.85 gave way to a London-open plunge to the 156.50 London low after Mimura's intervention warning, breaking the Asian range. Since then, higher lows at the 156.85 swing low and 157.04 higher low have lifted price back to the 50% retracement of the Asia-London drop, but the 157.25 NY high and EMA50 are capping price in early NY.
Support: 157.04, 156.85, 156.50
Resistance: 157.25, 157.45, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 NY high opens the 157.45 Friday high, and above that the 157.85 Asian high
Break below the 157.04 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 156.85 swing low, then the 156.50 London low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh Japanese intervention rhetoric could override the higher-lows structure
14:31 UTC
Recovering from London sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 157.142
Higher lows off 156.505, NY capped at 157.25 session high.
The Asian push to 157.85 reversed at London open on Mimura's intervention warnings, taking the pair to a 156.505 london low before a higher low formed at 156.85. NY is ranging mid-retracement between the 157.04 ny low and the 157.25 session high, above rising trendline support, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 157.04, 156.85, 156.505
Resistance: 157.25, 157.34, 157.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 session high opens the fib 61.8 retracement at 157.34, then the 157.58 breakdown area
Break of the 157.04 ny low and the rising trendline brings the 156.85 higher low back into play; below that, the 156.505 london low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any further Japanese intervention headlines could materially shift this read
USD/JPY broke the Asian range (157.65–157.85) lower into London open and printed a 156.505 london low after Mimura's intervention warning, then built higher lows at 156.85 and 157.04 along a rising trendline. Early NY is stalling at the 157.25 ny high, where the 50% fib of the Asian high to London low drop and EMA50 near 157.20 converge. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
Support: 157.037, 156.847, 156.505
Resistance: 157.254, 157.339
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.25 ny high and the 61.8% fib at 157.34 extends the recovery toward the broken Asian range low near 157.65
A break of the 157.04 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 156.85 higher low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any Japanese intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Mimura's intervention message drove a 135-pip slide early in London, from the 157.85 Asia high to a 156.50 session low. The rebound printed a higher low at 156.85 but met rejection at the 157.25 recovery high, just under the 61.8% retracement. Price is back below the ema20 near 157.11 and testing the 157.04 pullback low in the first hours of NY.
Support: 157.04, 156.85, 156.50
Resistance: 157.11, 157.25, 157.56
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.04 pullback low puts the 156.85 higher low in play; losing that breaks the higher-lows line
A break of 156.85 exposes the 156.50 session low
Close above the 157.25 recovery high opens the 61.8% retracement at 157.34 and the 157.56 breakdown point
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any further Japanese intervention remarks could materially shift this read
Higher low at 156.85 after London low, capped at 157.25 in NY.
Mimura's intervention warning drove a 135-pip London slide from the 157.85 asia high to the 156.50 london low. The rebound printed a higher low at 156.85 but stalled at the 157.25 ny high, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace. Price is rotating around 157.00 psych early in the NY session, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 157.00, 156.85, 156.50
Resistance: 157.25, 157.47, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.25 ny high and 61.8% retrace opens the 157.47 friday high
Break below the 156.85 higher low and rising lows trendline re-exposes the 156.50 london low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC or any intervention or rate-check headline could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Rebounding after sharp London selloff · RSI 58 · price 157.215
Higher low at 156.85 off 156.505 session low; double bottom neckline near 157.15 cleared.
London broke below the Asian low near 157.42 after Mimura's intervention jawboning, reaching a 156.505 session low. A double bottom and higher low at 156.85 have since lifted price back above the 157.00 round number, and it now sits between the 50% retrace (157.18) and the 157.25 intraday high as NY gets underway.
Support: 157.00, 156.85, 156.505
Resistance: 157.254, 157.34, 157.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 157.34 opens a retest of the former asian low near 157.42
Failure back below the 157.00 round number exposes the 156.85 higher low and the rising higher low line
Break of the 156.505 session low would resume the London selloff
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any fresh Japan intervention headlines could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Recovering from sharp London drop, higher lows · RSI 55 · price 157.197
HH/HL recovery off the 156.51 session low.
Asia ran to the 157.85 asian high before Mimura's intervention warning drove a ~135-pip London slide to the 156.51 session low. Since then the pair has printed a higher low at 156.85 and a higher high at 157.24, and now sits at the 50% retracement of the Asia-to-London drop heading into NY open. Price is back above EMA20 but still below EMA50, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 157.00, 156.85, 156.505
Resistance: 157.241, 157.42, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.24 swing high extends the higher-high chain toward the 157.42 breakdown area, near the 61.8% retracement
A slip back under the 157.00 round number stalls the recovery; losing the 156.85 higher low breaks the rising support and reopens the 156.51 session low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any further Japanese intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
London break below Asian range, higher lows since 156.50.
Mimura's intervention warning drove the London break of the Asian range, with the pair falling from the 157.85 Asian high to a 156.50 session low. Higher lows at 156.85 since, and price is back at the 50% retrace of the London drop, retesting the broken range base at the 157.24 ema50 cap in the first hour of NY.
Support: 157.00, 156.85, 156.50
Resistance: 157.24, 157.45, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.24 ema50 cap opens the 157.45 london break area
Failure to hold the 156.85 higher low reopens the 156.50 session low
Slip back below the 157.00 round number neutralises the rebound
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC or fresh Japanese intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating off the lows · RSI 52 · price 157.093
Post-breakdown range 156.85–157.15 under the Asian range low.
Mimura's intervention warning during London broke the Asian range low at 157.42 and drove the pair to a 156.50 session low. The rebound stalled at the 157.15 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop from the 157.85 Asian high. Early NY is pressing that cap from a 156.85 swing low, back above the 157.00 psych level, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 157.00, 156.85, 156.50
Resistance: 157.15, 157.42, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.15 bounce high breaks the post-drop range and opens a retest of the 157.42 Asian low
Failure below the 156.85 swing low exposes the 156.50 session low; slipping back under 157.00 psych keeps the range intact
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any further Tokyo intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Downtrend after London selloff, momentum flattening · RSI 48 · price 156.946
Lower highs compressing onto the 156.85 floor below the Asian range.
Mimura's joint-intervention message broke the 157.20–157.85 Asian range during the London session, and USD/JPY slid about 135 pips to the 156.505 london low. The rebound stalled at the 157.15 swing high near the 50% retrace, and lower highs since then are pressing price onto the 156.85 range floor into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 156.85, 156.505
Resistance: 157.15, 157.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.85 range floor exposes the 156.505 london low
A break of the lower-highs line and a close above the 157.15 swing high neutralises the downtrend read; the 157.36 breakdown level sits above
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and any further Japan MoF or rate-check headlines could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after London break · RSI 42 · price 156.99
Asian range broken lower; lower highs capping a 156.85–157.15 box.
Mimura's joint-intervention message at London open drove USD/JPY through the Asian low at 157.20 to a 156.50 London low. The rebound stalled at the 157.15 rebound high, just under the 50% retrace of the Asian high–London low move. Price is now coiling above the 156.85 swing low on lower highs, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 156.85, 156.505
Resistance: 157.15, 157.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.15 rebound high and the lower-highs line reopens the 157.20 asian low
Failure to hold the 156.85 swing low exposes the 156.50 london low
Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC: Fedspeak on an October hike could shift this read
Any MoF or Mimura escalation or rate-check reports could extend the break
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 44 · price 156.941
Asian range broken lower; lower high at 157.15 after the 156.505 flush.
London broke the Asian low at 157.42 on Mimura's joint Tokyo-Washington message, flushing to a 156.505 swing low. The rebound stalled at 157.15, a lower high just below the fib 61.8. Price is back under EMA20 near 156.85 late in the London session.
Support: 156.85, 156.505
Resistance: 157.15, 157.42
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 156.85 pullback low exposes the 156.505 swing low
M15 close above the 157.15 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending line from 157.60
Recovery back above the 157.42 Asian low would negate the range break
Any further MoF intervention headlines or a rate-check report
Lower high at 157.147 after London break of Asian range.
London open broke the Asian range (asian low 157.20 to 157.85 high) and ran to a 156.505 session low as intervention jawboning and hawkish BoJ minutes lifted JPY. The rebound met rejection at the 157.147 swing high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 157.85–156.50 drop, and late-London price is back under the 157.00 round number. The 156.64 higher low is the nearest support.
Support: 156.64, 156.505
Resistance: 157.00, 157.147, 157.20
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
M15 close above the 157.147 swing high negates the lower-high sequence; the asian low at 157.20 sits just above
Failure to hold the 156.64 higher low exposes the 156.505 session low
Fresh US-Japan intervention headlines remain a standing risk into NY open
Post-selloff consolidation between 156.96 and 157.15, below the broken Asian range.
London broke below the 157.42 Asian low and ran to a 156.505 session low, as US-Japan intervention jawboning and hawkish BoJ minutes lifted JPY. The rebound has stalled at the 157.15 range high, just shy of the 50% fib of the Asia-high-to-low drop, and price is coiling at 156.96–157.15 below EMA20 (~157.15).
Support: 156.96, 156.505
Resistance: 157.15, 157.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.15 range high and 50% fib reopens the 157.42 asian low
Failure to hold the 156.96 range low exposes the 156.505 session low
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, early in the NY session, could shift this read; intervention headlines remain a standing risk
London break of Asian range low; rebound capped at the 50–61.8% retrace.
USDJPY rallied to 157.85 in Asia, then broke below the 157.20 Asian range low early in London on Mimura's intervention remarks, hitting a 156.505 session low. The rebound stalled at 157.15, the rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop. Price is sagging back toward the 156.96 pullback low with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 156.96, 156.505
Resistance: 157.15, 157.52
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.15 rebound high, then the 157.52 breakdown level, would negate the rejection read
Failure to hold the 156.96 pullback low exposes the 156.505 session low
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and further MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 156.50, capped under breakdown zone.
Early London broke the 157.65–157.85 Asian range lower and swept through the 156.94 friday low to a 156.50 session low. JPY was firmer on the hawkish BoJ minutes and joint-intervention jawboning. The bounce since has printed higher lows along a trendline but is stalling at the 157.15 rebound high, just under the 50% fib and the 157.21 breakdown level.
Support: 156.95, 156.50
Resistance: 157.15, 157.21, 157.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.21 breakdown level opens the 61.8% fib at 157.34
Loss of the higher-low trendline and 156.95 (friday low) puts the 156.50 session low back in play
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Japanese intervention headlines remain a standing risk to the structure
Asian range low broken at London open; higher-low recovery from 156.505 now capped near 157.15.
London open broke the Asian range low near 157.42 and ran to the london low at 156.505. The move came on hawkish BoJ minutes and US-Japan intervention jawboning. The recovery line of higher lows has lifted price back to the 38.2% fib at 157.02, but the bounce high at 157.15 is holding under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.02, 156.94, 156.505
Resistance: 157.15, 157.18, 157.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 157.18 opens the 61.8% fib at 157.34
Break of the recovery line and the friday low at 156.94 exposes the london low at 156.505
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC, plus any MoF intervention headlines, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; higher lows off 156.505 session low.
London broke below the Asian low near 157.42 on yen intervention caution, printing a 156.505 session low before a steady rebound. The recovery is now stalling at the 157.09 recovery cap, just above the 38.2% fib, with a higher low at 156.96 and RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 156.96, 156.505
Resistance: 157.09, 157.18, 157.42
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.09 recovery cap exposes the 50% fib at 157.18, with the Asian low at 157.42 as the breakdown level above
A break of the 156.96 higher low breaks the recovery line and reopens the 156.505 session low
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in early London; lower high forming at 157.075 inside a 156.50–157.22 band.
Early London broke the Asian low at 157.42 and ran to a 156.505 session low as the yen caught a bid on US-Japan intervention talk. The rebound stalled at the 157.075 bounce high near the 38.2% fib. Price is now pivoting on the friday low at 156.94 mid-London, with RSI(14) near 41 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 156.94, 156.505
Resistance: 157.075, 157.22, 157.42
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.22 breakdown level reopens the asian low at 157.42 and negates the lower-high read
Failure to hold the friday low at 156.94 puts the 156.505 session low back in play
A break above the 157.075 bounce high takes price through the 38.2% fib toward the 50% near 157.18
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs intact, bounce testing 38.2%.
London broke the Asian range (157.42–157.85) lower as intervention caution lifted the yen. The move flushed to a session low at 156.50, then recovered to a bounce high at 157.08, a 38.2% fib retrace of the Asia-London drop. Price is now stalling just above the Friday low at 156.94, with RSI(14) near 39 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 156.94, 156.50
Resistance: 157.08, 157.23, 157.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.23 breakdown bar high (near the 50% fib) and the London downtrend line weakens the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the Friday low at 156.94 re-exposes the 156.50 session low
Reclaiming the 157.42 Asian low would neutralise the London range break
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, during NY hours, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs from Asia peak, corrective bounce into 38.2% retrace.
The 157.42–157.85 Asian range gave way at London open. A roughly 100-pip flush swept the Friday low at 156.94 and printed a London low at 156.50, a JPY-led move in line with the hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention rhetoric in the digest. Price has since recovered to 157.03, the 38.2% retrace of the Asia high–London low leg, with lower highs still capping from the Asian peak and RSI(14) back to 37 from oversold.
Support: 156.94, 156.50
Resistance: 157.21, 157.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.21 breakdown level (near the 50% retrace) extends the bounce toward the 157.42 asian low and the lower-highs line
Failure back below the 156.94 friday low reopens the 156.50 london low
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read; fresh Japanese intervention remarks remain a two-way tail
Asian range broken lower at London open; higher lows off 156.51 session low.
London open broke the Asian range low at 157.42 and flushed through Friday's low to a 156.51 session low. The move fits the JPY strength flagged after hawkish BoJ minutes and intervention talk. Price has since built higher lows up to the 157.01 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia high to session low drop, with RSI(14) recovering to 35 from oversold.
Support: 156.94, 156.84, 156.51
Resistance: 157.01, 157.21, 157.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.21 breakdown level (near the 61.8% fib) reclaims the London drop and opens the 157.42 asian low
Failure at the 157.01 bounce high and a break of the 156.84 higher low undercuts the rebound trendline and exposes the 156.51 session low
Loss of the 156.94 friday low on a closing basis turns the bounce back into continuation
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read; further Mimura/Katayama intervention remarks remain a downside tail
London open broke the Asian range and Friday's low; lower highs intact.
London open broke the Asian range low at 157.42 and Friday's low at 156.94 in a roughly 100-pip flush to a 156.505 session low, with no scheduled release behind it. The bounce is now stalling at the old Friday low from below, just under the 38.2% fib near 157.02, with RSI(14) back to about 30 after dipping below 20.
Support: 156.64, 156.505
Resistance: 156.94, 157.22, 157.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.94 Friday low, then the 157.02 fib, would ease the breakdown read
Rejection at 156.94 and a loss of the 156.64 higher low would re-expose the 156.505 session low
The 157.22 breakdown level caps any recovery before the 157.42 Asian low
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and any MoF intervention rhetoric could shift this read
09:02 UTC
Sharp down-leg, early bounce · RSI 31 · price 156.901
Asian range broken lower at London open; small higher lows off 156.505, now retesting Friday's low from below.
London open ran the pair about 135 pips off the 157.854 Asian high, through Friday's 156.936 low to a 156.505 session low. No scheduled release explains the move. The bounce has printed a higher low at 156.765 and is now testing the Friday low from below, with RSI(14) back near 31 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 156.765, 156.505
Resistance: 156.936, 157.02, 157.21
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 156.936 Friday low turns the break into a false break and exposes the fib 38.2 at 157.02
Rejection below 157.21, the 07:45 breakdown level, keeps the down-leg structure intact
Loss of the 156.765 higher low reopens the 156.505 session low and the 156.50 round number
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and any MoF/Katayama intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower highs through London, Friday low taken out.
London open broke the Asian range after the 157.85 Asia high failed, and a series of lower highs gave way to a ~60-pip bar in the 08:00 UTC slot that cut through the Friday low at 156.94 and printed a session low at 156.51. No calendar release explains the move despite hawkish BoJ minutes and live intervention risk. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold, and ATR has expanded to roughly 18 pips.
Support: 156.505, 156.00
Resistance: 156.936, 157.208
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Friday low at 156.94 would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the session low at 156.51 leaves the 156.00 round number exposed
Recovery above the 157.21 breakdown level would negate the London lower-high sequence
MoF or Katayama intervention headlines, plus Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, sharp London leg lower · RSI 24 · price 156.75
Asian range broken to downside, lower highs since Asia peak.
London broke the 157.20 asian low and Friday's sub-157.00 friday low, with a 63-pip bar printing a 156.60 session low; RSI(14) is near 24. The drop has no scheduled catalyst and runs against the digest's firm-USD backdrop, with lower highs intact from the 157.85 Asia peak.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 156.94, 157.20, 157.60
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 157.00 above the 156.94 friday low would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 156.60 session low opens the 156.50 round number flagged in the JPY digest
Rebound into the asia-london drop fib 38.2–50% (157.08–157.23) meets the asian low; the london high at 157.60 sits on the lower highs line
Any MoF/Katayama rate-check or intervention headline could extend the yen move disorderly
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high; Asia range broken to the downside.
The London open erased the Asia dip-buying rally. Price lost the 157.60 area, then the Asia low at 157.20, and has printed lower highs under a falling trendline since late Asia. RSI(14) sits near 26 as price presses the 157.00 round number just above Friday's 156.94 low, with no scheduled data in the next few hours.
Support: 157.00, 156.94
Resistance: 157.20, 157.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 156.94 Friday low extends the lower-low chain; the JPY digest flags 156.50 as the next area
Recovery above the 157.20 Asia low and the falling trendline would stall the downtrend read
38.2% retrace of the Asia high move sits near 157.39; the London high at 157.60 caps above
MoF/Katayama rate-check headlines remain a source of sudden yen moves outside the calendar
08:01 UTC
Short-term downtrend after Asia range broke · RSI 39 · price 157.518
Asian range low lost, lower highs through first hour of London.
The Asian range low near 157.65 gave way in the run-up to London open, with a drop to a 157.37 session low despite a USD-supportive weekend backdrop. Price is now retesting the 157.60 prior supp from below, about a third of the way back up the 157.85–157.37 drop, and lower highs are still capping bounces.
Support: 157.365, 157.20
Resistance: 157.60, 157.65, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.60 prior supp and the lower-highs line would negate the breakdown read and put the asia low at 157.65 back in play
Failure to hold the 157.37 session low opens the 157.20 weekly open
Recovery through the Asian range high at 157.85 would erase the London drop entirely
No scheduled US/JP data in the next 8h; MoF intervention rhetoric remains headline risk
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 39 · price 157.47
Asian range broken lower, lower-high/lower-low sequence into early London.
Asia lifted the pair from the 157.20 monday open to a 157.85 session high, then held a 157.65–157.85 range until late-Asia selling broke the range floor and printed a 157.37 session low, trimming the rebuild toward 158 that the digest flags as capped by intervention caution. The early-London bounce stalled at a 157.60 lower high near the 50% fib of the Asia drop, and price sits at 157.47 below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.37, 157.20, 156.94
Resistance: 157.60, 157.65, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.37 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.20 monday open, with the 156.94 friday low beyond
Recovery through the 157.60 lower high and back above the 157.65 range floor would negate the range-break read and bring the 157.85 session high back into view
Break above the lower highs trendline from 157.80 would mark the first shift in intraday structure
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h; unscheduled MoF/intervention headlines remain the main tail risk for sharp moves
Asian range 157.42–157.85 swept at the low; lower highs capping.
USDJPY rebuilt from Friday's intervention-talk lows into a 157.65–157.85 Asian range. Late in Asia it dropped through the 157.42 Asian low to a 157.37 session low, then climbed back to 157.60 into London open. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the 157.82–157.37 leg, under a lower-highs line and just below the 157.67 range floor, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.37, 157.20
Resistance: 157.67, 157.85
What it said to watch
A close back below the 157.37 session low turns the sweep into a lower-low and exposes the 157.20 weekly open
A reclaim of the 157.67 range floor and a break of the lower-highs line put the 157.85 Asian high back in play
Unscheduled MoF or intervention headlines can produce moves well beyond the ~10-pip ATR; no scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h
07:16 UTC
Intraday downturn, London open pushing lower · RSI 33 · price 157.513
Lower highs from the Asian high; London breakdown below Tokyo floor.
London open selling broke the 157.65 asian floor of the Tokyo consolidation and printed a 157.365 session low. Price has bounced only modestly to 157.51. The drop reversed the Asian dip-buying that followed the BoJ minutes and retraced about 70% of the asian rally off the 157.20 monday open, with RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 157.365, 157.20
Resistance: 157.65, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.65 asian floor negates the London breakdown
Failure to hold the 157.365 session low exposes the 78.6% of the asian rally fib near 157.34 and the 157.20 monday open
A break above the lower highs trendline from the 157.854 asian high changes the intraday read
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h. MoF/Katayama intervention headlines remain the main event risk
07:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, momentum lower into London · RSI 28 · price 157.446
Asian 157.65–157.85 consolidation broken lower; lower highs since the 157.85 session high.
Selling into the London open broke the 157.65–157.85 Asian consolidation, unwinding the post-BoJ-minutes dip-buying and taking price back to the 157.42 asian low, which also sits on the 61.8% fib of the 157.20–157.85 Asian rally. Lower highs have capped price below the 157.85 session high since 01:00 UTC. RSI(14) near 28 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.60, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.42 asian low exposes the 157.20 monday open, where the Asian rally started
Recovery back above the 157.60 break level puts price back inside the Asian consolidation and weakens the lower-highs read
A move back through the lower-highs line toward the 157.85 session high would turn the structure neutral
MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric remains a live JPY shock risk through the session
Asia range 157.65–157.85 broken to the downside, price at 38.2% fib.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.20 Monday open to a 157.85 Asian high on dip-buying after the BoJ Minutes, then ranged 157.65–157.85 for most of the Asia session. The 06:00 UTC bar broke the range floor to a 157.58 session low, which sits on the 38.2% fib into London open. RSI(14) is near 37 and price is below EMA20, just above EMA50.
Support: 157.58, 157.42
Resistance: 157.65, 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.65 range floor invalidates the range break read
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low opens the 50% fib at 157.53 and the 157.42 swing low
A recovery through the 157.85 asian high puts the 158.00 round number back in focus
MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric is a live JPY headline risk through London hours
06:31 UTC
Intraday range, slipping lower into London · RSI 42 · price 157.626
Asian range floor broken; testing 38.2% of Monday rally.
Dip-buyers lifted USD/JPY off the Sunday open to a 157.85 Asian high, then Asia chopped in a 157.65–157.85 band. The pre-London 06:00 UTC bar broke the range floor and the rising trendline to a 157.58 session low, which sits on the 38.2% of the Monday rally and near the 157.60 support area in the digest; RSI(14) is neutral at 42.
Support: 157.58, 157.42
Resistance: 157.65, 157.85
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.65 range floor puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the break
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.42 swing low (50–61.8% of the Monday rally fib)
Asian high at 157.85 caps the session; London open in ~45 min is the first test of the break
MoF / rate-check headlines can produce sharp yen spikes outside the current ~9-pip ATR
06:16 UTC
Range after Asia rally, highs flattening · RSI 46 · price 157.667
Lower highs pressing a flat 157.65 range floor, compression into London open.
Dip-buyers lifted the pair off the 157.20 Monday gap-down open, partly reversing Friday's slide, and the Asian session high printed at 157.854. Since then each bounce has stalled lower, near 157.80 along the lower highs trendline, while the 157.65 range floor has held five times, near the 38.2–50% zone of the Asia leg fib; RSI(14) is neutral at 46 with price just under EMA20.
Support: 157.65, 157.42
Resistance: 157.80, 157.854
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.65 range floor breaks the compression and exposes the 61.8% of the Asia leg near 157.59 and the 157.42 swing low
Close above the lower highs trendline near 157.80 reopens the 157.854 session high
London open in under an hour typically resolves this kind of Asian-range squeeze
MoF/Katayama jawboning or rate-check headlines could spike the yen regardless of structure
06:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalled in a tight range · RSI 51 · price 157.73
Asia rally to 157.85, then a 157.65–157.85 consolidation above 23.6% retrace.
The Asia session retraced part of Friday's NY slide on dip-buying after the flat open. Price lifted from the 157.20 monday open, past the 157.42 swing low, to a 157.85 asia high. Since then it has compressed in a 157.65–157.85 range around EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and London open approaching.
Support: 157.65, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00, 158.29
What it said to watch
London open break of the 157.65 range low or the 157.85 asia high sets the next intraday direction
M15 close below 157.65 range low (near the flagged 157.60 support) exposes the 157.42 swing low and the 38.2% of the asia rally fib at 157.60
Close above 157.85 asia high opens the 158.00 round number, with the 158.29 friday high above
MoF / rate-check headlines could spike the yen outside of this range structure
05:46 UTC
Short-term recovery, stalling in a tight range · RSI 50 · price 157.718
Asia range 157.65–157.85, holding above the 157.42 asia low.
Asia session rebound from the 157.20 Monday open reached the 157.85 session high, partly reversing Friday's slide, and the BoJ Minutes gave the yen no lasting lift. Since then price has compressed in a 157.65–157.85 band, with the range base tested three times, RSI(14) flat near 50 and price sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 157.65, 157.60, 157.42
Resistance: 157.85, 158.12
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.65 range base exposes the fib 38.2% at 157.60, then the 157.42 asia low
Close above the 157.85 session high opens the path to the 158.12 fri swing hi
London open could break the Asian range. Holiday-thinned liquidity may amplify the move
Intervention or rate-check headlines are a standing risk and could force a fast yen spike
Tight 157.65–157.85 range above rising higher-lows line.
Dip-buyers into the Asian open drove a Monday rally from 157.20 to a 157.854 session high, partly retracing Friday's London-NY slide to 156.94. Since the Tokyo open the pair has compressed between the 157.65 range low and the session high, holding above the higher-lows line with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and the 23.6–38.2% zone of the Monday rally untested.
Support: 157.654, 157.419
Resistance: 157.854, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.65 range low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.42 tokyo low
Close above the 157.854 session high opens the 158.00 round number
London open in ~2h typically expands the Asian range; ATR near 8 pips
Intervention headlines and holiday-thinned liquidity can force an abrupt yen spike
Higher lows from Monday open, now boxed 157.65–157.85.
The Asia rally took back part of Friday's slide, running from 157.20 to a 157.85 session high, with support from Fed-hike pricing and 5%+ UST yields. Since 01:00 UTC price has compressed in a 157.65–157.85 box. The range low held three times, and RSI(14) is neutral near 52 ahead of London open.
Support: 157.65, 157.42
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 session high puts the 158.00 round number in play
Failure at the 157.65 range low exposes the 157.42 swing low near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib
London open range expansion could resolve the box. ATR near 8.5 pips points to compressed conditions
Any MoF or Katayama remarks on the yen could abruptly shift this read
Asia range 157.42–157.85; higher lows since 00:00, compression under session high.
Asia session climbed from the 157.20 gap open to a 157.85 session high on Fed-hike and 5%+ yield support, recovering part of Friday's NY-session slide. Price has since compressed between the 157.65 range low and the session high, sitting at the 61.8% retrace of the 158.29–156.94 drop on a chain of higher lows. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 157.65, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 session high clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 158.00 round number, then the 158.29 Friday high
Break of the higher lows and the 157.65 range low reopens the 157.42 dip low, with the 157.20 gap open below
London open is likely to expand the tight Asian range
MoF/Katayama yen remarks or rate-check headlines could abruptly override the intraday structure
Asia session range 157.66–157.85 after a rally off the weekly-open low.
Buyers stepped in at the weekly open and again at the 157.42 session low. That lifted USD/JPY to a 157.85 session high in early Tokyo and retraced part of Friday's NY slide, with the wide yield gap and hawkish Fed pricing behind the move. Since then price has compressed between the 157.66 swing low and 157.85, holding above the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price sits right on EMA20.
Support: 157.66, 157.42
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00, 158.12
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 session high breaks the Asian range and opens 158.00 round number, then the 158.12 friday pivot
Failure to hold the 157.66 swing low (38.2% fib zone) exposes the 157.42 session low
London open is the first test of the Asian range; thin Japan-holiday liquidity can exaggerate breaks
Higher lows under Asia high, tight 157.66–157.85 range.
Dip-buyers lifted USD/JPY from the 157.20 weekly open to a 157.85 Asia high, retracing part of Friday's slide. The pullback held a 157.66 higher low near the 23.6% of the Asia rally fib, and price is now compressing just under the Asia high above a rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 157.66, 157.42
Resistance: 157.854, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 asia high opens the 158.00 round number
Break of the 157.66 higher low and rising trendline exposes the 157.42 swing low, near the 50% of the Asia rally fib
Thin Japanese holiday liquidity into London open could exaggerate a break of the Asian range
Monday Asia higher lows off the weekly open, now a tight range just under the session high.
Dip-buyers at the 157.20 weekly open drove a Monday Asia rally of higher lows through the 157.42 swing low to a 157.854 session high, retracing part of Friday's NY slide toward 156.94. BoJ minutes read as no rush to tighten. Since 01:00 UTC price has compressed in a 157.66–157.85 range with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 157.66, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.854, 158.12
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.854 session high breaks the Asian range and opens the 158.12 prior pivot
Failure to hold the 157.66 range floor breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 157.42 swing low
Loss of 157.42 puts the 157.20 weekly open back in play and unwinds the Monday rally
London open in roughly 3h may set the break direction for the Asian range
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below asia high · RSI 59 · price 157.747
Higher low at 157.42 then higher high at 157.85; now a tight 157.66–157.85 box with lower highs.
Asia session rally from the 157.20 week open retraced Friday's slide and stalled at the 157.85 asia high, just under the 61.8% fib of that drop, with lower highs since as JPY stays soft on the wide yield gap. Price is holding a 157.66–157.85 box above the rising asia trendline, and RSI(14) near 59 is not stretched.
Support: 157.66, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.854, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 asia high and 61.8% fib opens the round number at 158.00
Break of the 157.66 range low and the asia trendline exposes the 157.42 swing low
Loss of 157.42 would undo the higher-low chain and put the 157.20 week open back in view
London open liquidity could break the Asian range; thin Japanese holiday conditions may amplify moves
HL 157.42 / HH 157.85 off the Monday open, now a tight 157.66–157.85 range.
Monday opened about 10 pips below Friday's 157.32 close. Dip demand filled the gap early in the Asia session and printed a higher low at 157.42 before a session high at 157.85, reversing part of Friday's slide to 156.94 on hawkish-Fed and yield-gap tone. Since 01:00 UTC price has compressed between the 157.66 range low and the session high, with slightly lower highs, RSI(14) near 60 and price holding above the 23.6% retrace of the 157.20–157.85 leg.
Support: 157.66, 157.60, 157.42
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.66 range low exposes the fib 38.2 at 157.60, which is also flagged support in the digest
Loss of the 157.42 higher low breaks the Asia HL/HH chain
Break above the 157.85 session high puts the 158.00 round number in play
London open liquidity is likely to resolve the Asian range
Lower highs off 157.85 compressing into rising support near 157.66.
Dip-buyers lifted USD/JPY off the 157.20 weekly open to a 157.85 session high into the Tokyo open, retracing part of Friday's slide to 156.94 as the US-Japan yield gap kept the yen soft. Mid-Asia session, price is printing lower highs and pressing the rising support line from the weekly open, with the 157.66 session low under test and RSI(14) flat near 53.
Support: 157.66, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.85, 158.12
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.66 session low breaks rising support and exposes the 38.2% at 157.60, then the 157.42 swing low
Close above the 157.85 session high resumes the weekly-open rally toward Friday's 158.12 prior high
Loss of the 157.42 swing low puts the 157.20 weekly open back in play and negates the recovery structure
London open in ~4h typically expands the Asian range; Japanese holiday-thinned liquidity can exaggerate moves
Higher low at 157.42, then lower highs compressing under 157.85.
Asia session opened on a small gap below Friday's 157.32 close. Dip-buyers then retraced part of Friday's NY slide to 156.94 on the wide yield gap, reaching a 157.85 session high after a higher swing low at 157.42. Price is now drifting in a tight band above the 157.66 micro low, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 157.66, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 session high puts the 158.00 round number in play
Failure to hold the 157.66 micro low exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally near 157.60
Loss of the 157.42 swing low would negate the Asia rally structure and reopen the weekly open gap near 157.20
Thin liquidity around Japanese holidays can exaggerate moves around these levels
02:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from weekly open, pausing below session high · RSI 59 · price 157.721
HH/HL chain in Asia (157.20 → 157.42 → 157.85), now a tight 157.66–157.85 band.
USD/JPY gapped about 10 pips lower at the weekly open near 157.20. Dip-buyers then reclaimed Friday's close and printed a 157.85 session high in early Tokyo, in line with the wide US-Japan yield gap. Since 01:00 UTC price has compressed in a 157.66–157.85 band above rising support, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 157.66, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.66 range low brings the Asia-leg fib 38.2% at 157.60 and rising support into play
Loss of the 157.42 swing low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the weekly open gap near 157.20
M15 close above the 157.85 session high opens the 158.00 round number
BoJ July minutes today and thin Japanese holiday liquidity could amplify moves out of the current Asian range
02:31 UTC
Short-term up in Asia, pausing below session high · RSI 56 · price 157.723
Higher low at the Tokyo open, now a tight 157.70–157.85 consolidation.
The Monday Asia session opened on a small gap below Friday's 157.32 close. Price dipped to 157.42 at the Tokyo open, then the Asia rally reached a 157.85 session high as the Fed-BoJ yield gap kept the yen soft and the BoJ minutes gave it little lift. Price is now consolidating between the 157.70 range floor and the session high, above EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 157.70, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.85 session high extends the Asia rally toward the 158.00 round number.
A break of the 157.70 range floor opens a deeper retracement of the Asia rally toward the 157.42 Tokyo low.
Loss of the 157.42 Tokyo low undoes the Asia rebound and exposes the 157.20 weekly open.
No scheduled data in the next 8h. MoF or intervention headlines are the main shock risk into the London open.
02:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Monday open, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 157.712
Asia-session HH/HL chain from 157.20; stalling under 157.85 session high.
Asia session opened with a small gap below Friday's 157.32 close and has retraced part of the NY-session slide to 156.94. It printed higher lows at 157.42 and a session high at 157.85 as the Fed-BoJ yield gap reasserted. Price is now compressing in a 157.70–157.85 band above a minor floor, RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 157.70, 157.60, 157.42
Resistance: 157.854, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.70 minor floor exposes the 157.60 uob support near the 38.2% asia rally fib
Loss of the 157.42 higher low breaks the higher lows trendline and the Asia-session HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 157.85 session high opens the 158.00 round number
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Monday open · RSI 63 · price 157.819
HH/HL chain off 157.20 gap open, ~50% retrace of Friday drop.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap down to 157.20. It has since built higher lows at 157.42 and the 157.70 swing low, printing a 157.85 session high near the 50% retrace of Friday's 158.60–156.94 drop, with the Fed-BoJ yield gap keeping JPY soft. Price holds above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 63, firm but not stretched, and the 158.00 psych level sits directly overhead.
Support: 157.70, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 session high and 158.00 psych extends the HH/HL chain toward the 158.29 prior swing (61.8% fib zone)
Break of the 157.70 swing low, then the 157.42 higher low, breaks the Monday rising trendline and the micro uptrend
A return to the 157.20 gap open would unwind the Asia rebound
No scheduled data in the next 8h; London open and Tokyo MoF/intervention headlines are the main swing risk
01:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 63 · price 157.732
Higher highs and higher lows off the Monday open, capped at 157.85.
Asia session is retracing Friday's NY-hour slide, when USD eased with oil. Price has built higher highs and higher lows from the 157.20 monday open, but three tests of the 157.85 session high near the 50% fib were capped. Price is holding above 157.60, where the 38.2% fib lines up with UOB support, while Tokyo's CSPI and BoJ minutes gave no fresh catalyst.
Support: 157.60, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.85, 158.02
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 session high opens the 158.02 61.8% fib
Break below the 157.42 asia hl ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 157.20 monday open back in play
Sustained trade below the 157.60 38.2% fib shifts the read back toward Friday's downtrend
London open in ~5h is the next range test; intervention rhetoric or Iran/oil headlines can move USD/JPY sharply
01:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 66 · price 157.783
Higher lows off the 157.20 gap low, session high 157.85 capping.
Asia session has recovered from the weekend gap low at 157.20. Price has retaken Friday's NY breakdown area near 157.60 on a rising-lows sequence, with the 157.42 swing low holding at the Tokyo open. The session high at 157.85 is capping so far, RSI(14) is near 66, and weekend JPY inputs (CSPI, BoJ minutes) brought no fresh catalyst.
Support: 157.60, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.854, 158.118
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 session high opens the 158.00–158.12 prior high from Friday's London bounce
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 157.60, which is also UOB-flagged support, puts the 157.42 swing low back in play
A break of the rising-lows line and 157.42 exposes the 157.20 gap low and invalidates the up-leg read
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h; Iran/oil headlines are the main swing factor for this read
01:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Monday open · RSI 67 · price 157.799
HH/HL chain from 157.20; 157.68 prior high broken, 157.42 higher low.
Monday gapped about 10 pips below Friday's close to 157.20. It then recovered part of Friday's oil-driven USD slide, holding a 157.42 higher low and clearing the 157.68 prior high to a 157.84 session high into the Tokyo open. RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched, with the 158.00 round number and Friday's 158.12 swing high overhead.
Support: 157.68, 157.60, 157.42
Resistance: 157.84, 158.00, 158.12
What it said to watch
Pullback into the 157.68 prior high is the first retest of the breakout
Break below 157.60, where the fib 38.2% meets UOB-flagged support, would erode the rally
Failure to hold the 157.42 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trend support
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number exposes Friday's 158.12 swing high
Thin Asia session liquidity: Tokyo jawboning or Iran/oil headlines can produce moves well beyond the ~13-pip ATR
00:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Monday open · RSI 66 · price 157.69
HH/HL chain from 157.20 gap low, testing Friday's NY breakdown zone at 157.70s.
Monday's Asia session opened on a small gap down to 157.20 from Friday's 157.32 close. The Asia up-leg since then has printed a higher low at 157.42 and a new session high at 157.79. That puts price back into the 157.70s zone where Friday's NY breakdown started, with RSI(14) at 66 and not stretched, and the UOB support at 157.60 sitting just below.
Support: 157.60, 157.42, 157.20
Resistance: 157.79, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.79 session high clears Friday's NY breakdown zone and opens 158.00 round number
Close back below 157.60 uob support puts the retest at risk; loss of the 157.42 higher low breaks the Asia up-leg HH/HL chain
A return to the 157.20 gap low would fill the weekend gap and negate the Monday rally
Iran/oil headlines and any Tokyo intervention rhetoric can shift USD/JPY sharply in thin Asia flow
00:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher low in place · RSI 61 · price 157.59
Asia session gap filled; HL at 157.42 below session high 157.68.
The Asia session opened with a 10-pip gap down to 157.20 (gap low) that filled within the first hour. Price then ran to a session high at 157.68. The BoJ Minutes whipsaw tagged a swing low at 157.42, near the 50–61.8% retracement, and was fully retraced, leaving price pressing the session high after Friday's NY slide to the 156.94 friday low.
Support: 157.42, 157.20, 156.94
Resistance: 157.68, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.68 session high opens the 157.77 fri ny high
Break below the 157.42 swing low and rising support voids the higher-low read and exposes the 157.20 gap low
MoF/intervention headlines or US yield moves during thin Asia hours could materially shift this read
Gap-down open, rally to 157.68, now at 50% retracement.
Early Asia session: the pair gapped ~10 pips lower at the open to an open low of 157.20, then rallied to a 157.68 session high before rejection. It is now sitting on the 50% fib of that leg near the 157.42 pullback low, after Friday's intervention-fear slide to the 156.94 friday low.
Support: 157.42, 157.20, 156.94
Resistance: 157.68, 157.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.42 pullback low and the 61.8% fib at 157.38 exposes the 157.20 open low
Recapture of the 157.68 session high puts the 157.77 breakdown point from Friday back in play
Any MoF/Katayama rhetoric during Tokyo hours could quickly reverse the rebound off the friday low