Post-Fed lower-high/lower-low chain, pressing session low in early Asia.
The Fed-hold spike to 158.35 was rejected within the bar on the dollar's sell-the-fact move. The pair has since printed lower highs at 158.07 and 157.89 and is pressing the 157.70 session low in early Asia. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 36; the 157.65 London low and 157.55 band floor sit below the post-Fed drop, and the 157.80 NY base is now overhead.
Support: 157.698, 157.652, 157.55
Resistance: 157.80, 157.891, 158.067
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.65 London low extends the post-Fed lower-low chain toward the 157.55 band floor
Recovery above the 157.89 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the post-Fed downtrend read, with the 158.07 fed rebound high next
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs since the Fed · RSI 41 · price 157.758
Post-Fed lower highs, marginal lower lows into early Asia.
The NY-session run to 158.35 met rejection at the Fed spike, and the post-decision sell-the-fact USD move erased the day's gains. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 157.89 and slightly lower lows. Price is now pressing the 157.73 post-Fed low early in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 41 and bar ranges compressing.
Support: 157.73, 157.65, 157.55
Resistance: 157.89, 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
A close below 157.73 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.65 London low
Failure to hold 157.65 exposes 157.55, the floor of the cited 157.55–158.05 intraday band
A reclaim of the 157.89 lower high, then the 158.06 bounce high, would neutralise the post-Fed decline
US core PCE and GDP in ~13h, and the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.35, compressing above 157.74 in early Asia.
The NY-session push to the 158.35 fomc high was rejected during Warsh's presser. USD/JPY retraced to the 157.74 post-fed low as the dollar sold off on the hawkish hold. Early Asia trade is pinned under a descending line from the post-fed highs, RSI(14) is near 41, and the 157.65 london low is the next floor.
Support: 157.74, 157.652
Resistance: 157.89, 158.06, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.89 bounce high breaks the descending line from the post-fed highs
Failure to hold the 157.74 post-fed low exposes the 157.65 london low
Reclaim of the 158.06 lower high puts price back above the midpoint of the fomc drop
US core PCE and Q3 GDP in ~13h could materially shift this read
Post-Fed lower highs and lower lows into early Asia.
Warsh's hawkish hold drew a sell-the-fact rejection at the 158.35 Fed high, and the drop retraced over 78.6% of the Fed rally that began at the 157.65 London low. Price is in early Asia session on a lower-high/lower-low chain, pressing the 157.75 post-fed low with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.754, 157.652
Resistance: 157.891, 158.065, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.75 post-fed low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.65 London low.
A reclaim of the 157.89 lower high, then the 158.06 fed retrace high, breaks the post-Fed lower-high sequence.
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read. Tokyo CPI follows at 23:30 UTC ahead of the BoJ.
Lower highs and lower lows off the 158.35 Fed spike, thin post-rollover drift.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser triggered a sharp rejection at the 158.35 fed high, erasing the NY rally. Since then the pair has formed a lower high at 158.06 and lower lows down to the 157.754 post-Fed low. It now sits at 157.80 in thin post-rollover trade, under a descending trendline with a 157.89 swing high and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 157.754, 157.652
Resistance: 157.891, 158.06, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.89 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 157.754 post-Fed low exposes the London low at 157.65
Recovery through the 158.06 lower high and the 38.2% fib of the Fed drop (~157.98) would neutralise the post-Fed downtrend
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.35 Fed spike; late-NY bounce testing the descending line.
The NY grind to the 158.35 fed high was rejected during Warsh's presser, which markets read as less hawkish, and a 47-pip drop followed. Lower highs at 158.06 and 157.89 have since capped price, with the post-fed low at 157.75 matching the Asian floor. The thin late-NY bounce is now pressing the lower-highs trendline and the fib 23.6 at 157.89, below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 157.89, 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.89 (fib 23.6) breaks the lower-highs trendline
Close above the 158.06 lower high voids the post-Fed lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.75 post-fed low exposes the 157.65 london low
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 158.06 after rejection of the Fed spike.
The Fed spike to 158.35 reversed sharply after the market read Warsh's 'tightening is working' as less hawkish. That erased most of the London-NY grind up from the 157.65 London low. In thin post-rollover trade the pair is probing the 78.6% retracement near 157.80, holding just above the 157.75 session low and below a line of post-Fed lower highs.
Support: 157.754, 157.652
Resistance: 158.059, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.75 session low opens a retest of the 157.65 london low
Recovery above the post-Fed lower-highs line and the 61.8% retracement at 157.92 eases the reversal read
Reclaiming the 158.06 post-fed high puts the 158.35 fed spike back in play
Core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend since the post-Fed reversal, stalling · RSI 37 · price 157.80
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.35, now at the Asian range floor.
The NY rally cleared the Asian range high and printed the 158.35 Fed high. Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser then drove a 48-pip rejection back inside the range. The post-Fed lower high at 157.94 has since pressed price onto the Asian low at 157.75 in thin rollover trade, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 157.94, 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 157.75 exposes the 157.65 london low, the session low from London open
Recovery above 158.06, the fib 50% of the post-Fed drop, breaks the lower-high sequence; the 158.35 fed high sits above
Asia session liquidity returning could test the 157.94 lower high; core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) are the next major USD risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the presser spike, price back inside the Asian range near its floor.
The NY breakout above the asian high at 157.99 reversed at the fed high of 158.35 once Warsh's 'tightening is working' line softened USD. That reversal has made the breakout a false break. Post-presser bounces stalled at a lower high near 158.06, and price is now sitting just above the asian low at 157.75 in thin rollover trade, RSI(14) near 32, with the london low at 157.65 below.
Support: 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 157.99, 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 157.99 (38.2% of the fed high retrace) negates the false-break read
Failure to hold the asian low at 157.75 extends the lower-low chain toward the london low at 157.65
A break of the lower high at 158.06 (50% retrace) re-opens the fed high at 158.35
Thin liquidity into the Asia session can exaggerate moves; Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.35 Fed high, back inside Asian range.
The NY-session grind to the 158.35 Fed high reversed on Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser. USD/JPY is now about 55 pips lower, near the 157.77 post-fed low just above the 157.75 Asian low, and close to the 78.6% retrace of the London low-to-Fed high rally. Post-Fed bounces stalled at the 158.06 bounce high and each later bounce topped out lower into the thin after-NY trade. RSI(14) is near 34 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 157.77, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.75 Asian low exposes the 157.65 London low and a full retrace of the London low-to-Fed high rally
A close back above the 158.06 bounce high invalidates the post-Fed lower-high sequence; the 158.35 Fed high is the upper reference
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE/GDP and Thu 23:30 UTC Tokyo CPI could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Post-Fed reversal, short-term down · RSI 37 · price 157.829
Failed break above Asian range, post-Fed lower highs.
NY broke the asian high near 158.00 and ran to the 158.35 fed high into the hold. Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser then drove a 47-pip reversal back inside the Asian range. Late in NY, price is through the 61.8% of the London low–Fed high leg and pressing the asian low at 157.75, with a sequence of post-Fed lower highs overhead.
Support: 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 158.00, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.75 asian low exposes the 157.65 london low and completes the full retrace of the London-to-Fed leg
Recovery above the 158.00 asian high and the 158.07 post-fed hi breaks the post-Fed lower highs line and negates the rejection read
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 158.35 FOMC spike, pressing the Asia low.
The hawkish Fed hold lifted USDJPY to a 158.346 FOMC spike, but the push above the NY range failed and the pair unwound the entire NY rally during the press conference. Price now sits below the 61.8% fib of the 157.652–158.346 leg, with a lower high at 158.06 and late NY trade testing the 157.75 Asia low.
Support: 157.75, 157.652
Resistance: 157.917, 158.06, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.75 Asia low exposes the 157.652 day low
Recovery above 157.92 (61.8% fib), then the 158.06 lower high, breaks the post-FOMC lower-high sequence
Tokyo CPI and the BoJ decision later this week, plus core PCE/GDP in ~16h, could materially shift this read
False break above Asian range, back inside 157.75–157.99.
The NY rally broke the Asian high at 157.99 and spiked to the FOMC high at 158.35 on the hawkish-leaning hold, then fully reversed back inside the Asian range. Post-Fed bounces are capped by a lower high at 158.06 while the post-Fed low at 157.82 holds above the Asian low. Price sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of the London low–FOMC high leg, RSI(14) near 39, late NY into the Asia open.
Support: 157.82, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 157.99, 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.75 asian low exposes the 157.65 london low and completes the 78.6% fib retrace
Reclaim of 157.99 asian high and the 158.06 lower high would neutralise the false-break read
Fed vote split / Warsh presser coverage not yet in feed could still reprice this move
Core PCE and GDP in ~16h are the next scheduled catalyst for this structure
The NY breakout above the Asian high peaked at a 158.346 session high on the FOMC hold. It was then rejected sharply as Warsh's presser began, sending price back through the 61.8% fib of the London-low rally into the Asian range. Lower highs at 158.067 and 158.004 sit above a 157.816 fomc low, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR expanded to ~11 pips late in NY.
Support: 157.816, 157.748, 157.652
Resistance: 157.917, 158.038, 158.346
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.816 fomc low and the 157.748 Asian low exposes the 157.652 London low
Recovery above the 61.8% fib at 157.917 and the 158.038 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Warsh presser still in progress; December guidance could materially shift this read
Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
20:02 UTC
NY uptrend reversed at the Fed presser, now choppy · RSI 41 · price 157.896
Spike-and-reversal from 158.35, post-Fed range 157.83–158.06 back inside the Asian range.
The NY rally cleared the Asian range high near 157.99 on the hawkish Fed hold and set a day high at 158.35. The first press-conference bar then reversed about 47 pips. Price has since chopped between the 157.83 post-Fed low and the 158.06 post-Fed high, sitting near the 61.8–78.6% retrace of the 157.65–158.35 NY rally fib, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.83, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 158.06, 158.25, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.83 post-Fed low exposes the 157.75 Asian low, then the 157.65 London low (day low)
Recovery above the 158.06 post-Fed high reopens the 158.25 pre-Fed high and the 158.35 day high
Warsh press conference still in progress; December hike guidance could extend the post-Fed swing either way
Spike to 158.35 rejected; post-FOMC range 157.83–158.06 inside 50–61.8% fib.
Late NY session. The NY rally from the 157.65 London low pushed through 158.00 and based at 158.12–158.24. The Fed's hawkish-dissent hold then spiked price to a 158.35 FOMC high that was fully rejected as Warsh's presser began. Price is now chopping between the 157.83 FOMC low and the 158.06 bounce high, around the 50–61.8% fib of the London-low-to-FOMC-high leg, with ATR(14) expanded to ~13 pips.
Support: 157.83, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 158.06, 158.12, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.83 fomc low exposes the 157.75 asian low and the 157.65 london low
Reclaim of the 158.06 bounce high puts the 158.12 pre-fomc low back in play, with the 158.35 fomc high above
Warsh press conference still in progress and could materially shift this read; GDP and core PCE follow Thu 12:30 UTC
The hawkish-hold spike to the 158.35 fomc high reversed about 50 pips during the Warsh presser. The fade erased the NY-session breakout above 158.00 and printed a 157.83 fomc low, putting price back inside the Asian range (157.75–157.99) near the 61.8% retrace of the London low–FOMC high leg. RSI(14) is near 36, ATR has expanded to roughly 10.6 pips, and the 158.00 round number and the 158.06 bounce high now cap the recovery.
Support: 157.83, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 158.00, 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.83 fomc low exposes the 157.75 asian low, then the 157.65 london low (78.6% fib near 157.80)
Recovery above the 158.00 round number and the 158.06 bounce high would weaken the rejection read
Warsh presser still in progress; December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
NY breakout above the Asian range unwound; price back inside Asian range.
The NY breakout above the 157.99 Asian high carried to a 158.35 FOMC high after the hawkish hold. Price then reversed about 50 pips during the Warsh presser to a 157.83 presser low. That move retraced past the 61.8% of the London low–FOMC high leg and put price back inside the Asian range. RSI(14) at 35 and ATR near 10 pips reflect the post-decision volatility.
Support: 157.83, 157.75, 157.652
Resistance: 157.99, 158.12, 158.346
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference in progress; tone on December could extend or reverse this leg
Failure to hold the 157.83 presser low exposes the 157.75 Asian low, then the 157.65 London low
M15 close back above the 157.99 Asian high reopens the 158.12 NY pullback low
Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-FOMC whipsaw, holding 50% of London-low rally.
The NY-open breakout above the 157.99 asian high ran to a 158.35 fomc high. Warsh's presser then drove a 48-pip spike to the 157.86 fomc low, and that drop was bought back to the 50% fib of the London-low rally. Price now sits on the asian high just below the 158.07 rebound high, under both EMAs with ATR(14) expanded to about 10 pips.
Support: 157.99, 157.86, 157.65
Resistance: 158.07, 158.25, 158.35
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.86 fomc low exposes the 157.65 london low
Reclaiming the 158.07 rebound high and the 158.25 pre-fomc shelf restores the higher-high chain toward the 158.35 fomc high
The Warsh presser is still running, and further December-hike guidance could extend the whipsaw
Thu 12:30 UTC GDP/core PCE and Fri BoJ are the next scheduled shifts for this read
HH/HL chain from the 157.65 London-open low; Asian range top cleared.
London open dipped below the Asian low to 157.65 and reversed. NY then broke the 158.00 Asian range top, and the as-expected Fed hold printed a 158.34 session high on a firmer USD. Price sits above rising support with RSI(14) near 57, and Warsh's press conference is now underway.
Support: 158.12, 158.00
Resistance: 158.337, 158.60
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference (18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read: December hike guidance versus pushback
Failure to hold the 158.12 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 158.00 breakout level, also the 50% fib of the London-NY rally, back in play
M15 close above the 158.34 session high brings the 158.60 range top into view, where MoF intervention rhetoric risk rises
HH/HL chain from London low; Asian range high broken at NY open.
London swept the Asian low to a 157.65 session low, then built a steady higher-low climb along rising support. The NY open cleared the 157.99 Asian high and the 158.00 round number, as the dollar stayed firm into the Fed and higher crude weighed on the yen. The 18:00 UTC Fed bar ran 14 pips two-way and closed near the 158.30 session high, with RSI(14) near 75: hot, but not extreme.
Support: 158.16, 158.12, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read. The 158.16 fed bar low is the first test of the post-decision move.
An M15 close below the 158.12 ny swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 158.00 round number, near the 38.2% of the london leg fib.
Acceptance above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.60 range top (UOB 157.00-158.60), where intervention rhetoric is flagged to intensify.
A break of rising support from the 157.65 London low ends the intraday HH/HL sequence.
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near session high · RSI 59 · price 158.237
Higher lows from 157.65, tight 158.12–158.28 band pre-Fed.
London swept below the Asian range to a 157.65 low. NY then broke above the Asian high near 157.99 and pushed to a 158.28 session high, with the dollar firm into the Fed. Price has compressed in a 158.12–158.28 band through late NY and is holding the higher-low chain along the rising trendline. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR runs about 6 pips into the decision.
Support: 158.12, 157.99, 157.65
Resistance: 158.28, 158.60
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC can expand range well beyond the ~6-pip ATR
M15 close below the 158.12 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the asian high at 157.99 reopens the 157.65 london low and the deeper fib retracement
M15 close above the 158.28 session high exposes the 158.60 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric risk rises
Higher lows from the London low; NY break of 158.00 now consolidating.
The London low at 157.65 led a steady higher-low climb. The first hour of NY then cleared 158.00 and the 158.04 prior high on the firm-USD, soft-yen backdrop. Price is now coiling in a 13-pip band beneath the 158.25 session high into FOMC, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 158.12, 158.04
Resistance: 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC are likely to resolve the 158.12–158.25 coil; current ATR understates the event range
A close above the 158.25 session high opens the 158.60 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric has been building
Loss of the 158.12 ny dip low brings the 158.04 prior high and the 38.2% fib near 158.02 back into play
A break below 157.95, the 50% retrace of the London low-to-high move, would undercut the higher-low sequence
Higher lows off London low, NY-open breakout now in tight consolidation.
A steady higher-low climb off the 157.65 London low cleared the 158.04 breakout level at the NY open. That move ran to a 158.25 session high as the USD stayed firm into the Fed. Price is now coiling in a 158.12–158.25 band with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 5 pips, about 30 minutes before the decision.
Support: 158.12, 158.04, 157.65
Resistance: 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 158.25 session high opens the path to the 158.60 range top, where intervention rhetoric is flagged
Loss of the 158.12 pullback low points to a retest of the 158.04 breakout level, near the 38.2% fib
A break of rising trendline support would undercut the higher-low chain and expose the 157.65 London low
17:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 61 · price 158.188
Higher lows from London low, holding above breakout lvl.
The rally from the 157.65 London low cleared the 158.00 breakout lvl at the NY open, with the USD firm into the Fed, and pushed to a 158.25 session high. Since then price has held a tight 158.12–158.25 band. The 16:45 UTC pullback low sits on rising support, RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is only about 5–6 pips into the decision.
Support: 158.12, 158.00, 157.652
Resistance: 158.249, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR is set to expand
An M15 close below the 158.12 pullback low breaks rising support and puts the 158.00 breakout lvl in play
A close back under 158.00 turns the NY breakout into a false break and reopens the 157.65 london low
Acceptance above the 158.25 session high puts the 158.60 uob cap in focus, where intervention rhetoric tends to intensify
London swept Asian low then reversed; NY broke Asian high to a higher high, first pullback underway.
London swept the Asian low near 157.75 to 157.65, then reversed. NY broke the 157.99 Asian high and the 158.04 prior high on a firm USD into FOMC, printing a session high at 158.249. The late-NY dip held at a 158.12 pullback low near the 23.6% fib, with price just above EMA20.
Support: 158.12, 158.04, 157.99
Resistance: 158.249, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~1h and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 158.04 prior high returns price toward the 157.99 Asian high and negates the breakout
Loss of the 158.12 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain off the London low
Close above the 158.249 session high extends the higher highs toward the 158.60 range top, where intervention rhetoric is expected to intensify
16:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 70 · price 158.211
NY-open range break, tight consolidation at highs.
London swept below the Asian range to 157.65, then built a higher-low chain (157.85 higher low). At the NY open price broke the 158.00 breakout level on a firm USD and higher crude. Late in NY hours it is compressing in a 4-pip band just under the 158.25 session high, with the 158.14 pullback low beneath, ahead of FOMC; RSI(14) is cooling to ~70.
Support: 158.144, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.249, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.25 session high opens the path to UOB's 158.60 range top, where intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify
Failure to hold the 158.14 pullback low puts the 158.00 breakout level up for a retest
M15 close below the 157.85 higher low breaks the London higher-low line and voids the breakout read
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 73 · price 158.225
NY breakout above Asian range, tight flag-like hold below 158.25.
London open saw a false break below the Asian range to 157.65 before a steady recovery. NY then broke through the 157.99 Asian high and 158.00 on a firmer USD and higher oil, and price has since compressed between the 158.14 pullback low and the 158.25 session high after London close, with RSI(14) near 73 into the FOMC.
Support: 158.144, 158.038, 157.994
Resistance: 158.249, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.14 pullback low breaks the post-breakout higher-low chain
Return below the 158.04 prior high and 157.99 Asian high, near the 38.2% of the London-NY leg (~158.02), would undo the breakout
Clearance of the 158.25 session high puts UOB's 158.60 range top in view, where intervention rhetoric tends to build
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 6 pips understates event range
NY-open breakout above 158.00, tight higher-low compression under session high.
USDJPY cleared the 158.00 round number and the Asian range high at the NY open, extending a 60-pip leg off the 157.65 London low to a 158.25 session high on the firm USD bid into FOMC and oil-driven yen softness. Price has compressed in a 158.14–158.25 band for two hours with RSI(14) near 84. The 158.14 swing low is the base of that band.
Support: 158.14, 158.00, 157.65
Resistance: 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 158.14 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 158.00 round number (fib 38.2% near 158.02) puts the breakout into false-break territory
Extension through the 158.25 session high brings the 158.60 uob range top and MoF rhetoric into view
NY breakout above Asian high, tight consolidation 158.14–158.25.
London swept below the Asian range to a 157.65 london low, then built higher lows before the first hour of NY cleared the 158.00 asian high on a firm pre-FOMC USD bid and oil-driven yen softness. Price is now compressing between the 158.14 consol low and the 158.25 session high, RSI(14) near 77 with ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 158.14, 158.00, 157.65
Resistance: 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.14 consol low puts the 158.00 asian high retest in play, near the 38.2% fib of the London-low rally
Close above the 158.25 session high opens the path to the 158.60 uob range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify
Break of the rising trendline from the London low would end the higher-low sequence
Higher lows since London low; NY broke Asian high, now tight range below 158.235.
London swept under the Asian range low to a 157.65 London low, then NY broke the Asian high near 157.99 and printed a 158.235 session high on a firm USD and higher crude. Price is now compressing in a 158.14–158.235 range with RSI(14) near 79 ahead of the 18:00 UTC FOMC.
Support: 158.14, 157.99, 157.65
Resistance: 158.235, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.14 range low opens a retest of the 157.99 Asian high
A break of rising support from the London low would end the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 158.235 session high brings the 158.60 UOB ceiling into view; MoF intervention rhetoric risk rises above 158
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Uptrend, extended after NY breakout · RSI 79 · price 158.22
Asian range broken higher; HH/HL chain since the 157.65 London low.
London opened with a drop to 157.65, then price recovered and broke the 157.75–157.99 Asian range and the 158.00 round number at the NY open on a firm USD into FOMC, reaching a 158.235 session high. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, and the 158.14 pullback low is holding as the latest higher low.
Support: 158.14, 158.00, 157.99
Resistance: 158.235, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.14 pullback low breaks the micro higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number and 157.99 Asian high puts price back inside the prior range, near the 38.2% fib
Break of the 158.235 session high brings UOB's 158.60 range top and MoF intervention rhetoric into play
NY breakout above Asian range, tight consolidation below session high.
London swept down to 157.65 before demand returned. The NY open then drove USD/JPY out of the 157.75–157.99 Asian range and through the 158.04 prior high on a firmer dollar into FOMC. Price is now coiling in a 158.14–158.24 band under the session high with RSI(14) near 76, holding well above the 38.2% retrace of the London low–NY high leg at 158.01.
Support: 158.145, 158.04, 157.99
Resistance: 158.235, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.145 pause low ends the consolidation; 158.04 prior high is the first retest area
Failure to hold the 157.99 Asian high would turn the NY breakout into a false break
A break of the 158.235 session high opens UOB's 158.60 range top, where MoF jawboning tends to intensify
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London sweep of the Asian low, higher-low chain, NY break of the Asian range, tight consolidation above 158.14.
London swept below the Asian range to a london low at 157.65, then built a steady higher-low recovery. With USD firm into FOMC, the NY open broke the Asian high near 157.99 and the 158.04 prior high, and price printed a session high at 158.23. It is now holding a tight 158.14–158.23 band, with RSI(14) near 76: stretched, not extreme.
Support: 158.14, 157.99, 157.65
Resistance: 158.23, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close below the 158.14 consol low exposes a retest of the 157.99 asian high, near the 38.2% fib
A failure back below the asian high would turn the NY range break into a false break
Acceptance above the 158.23 session high opens the path to the 158.60 range top, where intervention rhetoric is flagged
A break of the higher-low trendline from the london low would end the intraday HL chain
Higher lows from London low, NY broke above Asian high.
The first hour of NY broke the 158.04 Asian high and the 157.98 London open high on a firm USD into FOMC. That extends the leg from the 157.65 London low to a 158.23 session high. RSI(14) is near 77, and the last three bars have stalled just under the session high.
Support: 158.04, 157.98, 157.65
Resistance: 158.23, 158.60
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 158.04 Asian high returns price inside the prior range and points to a false break
A close above the 158.23 session high opens the path to the 158.60 range top cited by UOB, where intervention rhetoric is in focus
A break of the rising trendline from the London low ends the higher-low sequence
14:32 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 77 · price 158.174
HH/HL chain from London low, broke 24h range top.
The NY session broke the Asian high at 158.04 and the 158.00 round number, extending the higher-low chain from the 157.65 London low to a 158.23 session high as USD firmed into FOMC. RSI(14) is near 77, and the latest bar is stalling just under the session high, so the trendline and a fib of the London low to session high leg frame any pullback.
Support: 158.04, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.226, 158.60
What it said to watch
A close back below 158.04 (asian high) and 158.00 would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.85 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the London trendline
Acceptance above the 158.23 session high opens the 158.60 range top flagged by UOB
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 77 · price 158.186
HL chain from London low, NY breakout above Asian range.
A higher-low chain from the 157.65 London low carried into the first hour of NY, which broke the 157.99 prior cap and the 158.04 Asian high on a firm pre-FOMC dollar. Price is pressing the 158.20 session high with RSI(14) near 77. The 38.2% fib of the leg sits on the prior cap, with the 157.87 swing low below that.
Support: 158.04, 157.99, 157.87
Resistance: 158.20, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.99 prior cap marks the breakout as a false break
Holding above the 158.04 Asian high on pullbacks keeps the breakout read intact
Extension through the 158.20 session high puts the 158.60 range top in view
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 157.87 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh 24h high · RSI 76 · price 158.121
HH/HL chain from London low; Asian high broken in NY.
USD/JPY cleared the 158.04 asian high in the first hour of NY. That extends a steady higher-low climb off the 157.65 london low to a 158.13 session high, on a firm USD into the Fed. RSI(14) near 76 reads hot but not stretched. The 157.98 prior high and the rising trendline sit just beneath.
Support: 158.04, 157.98, 157.65
Resistance: 158.13, 158.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.04 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the rising trendline and 157.98 prior high exposes the 157.89 50% fib
Loss of the 157.65 london low would invalidate the intraday higher-low chain
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; 158.60 range top is the next upside reference above the session high
London higher-low chain off a sweep of the Asian low, now holding above the Asian high.
London open swept the Asian low to 157.65, then built a higher-low chain off the 157.85 swing low. The London rally carried into NY open, where the bar cleared the 157.99 Asian high and the overnight 158.04 peak to a 158.11 session high on a firm USD into FOMC. Price is holding near 158.04, early in the NY session, with RSI(14) at about 63 and ATR at about 6 pips.
Support: 157.99, 157.85, 157.65
Resistance: 158.11, 158.60
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.99 asian high would turn the NY breakout into a false break
A break of the London trend near 157.96 and the 157.85 swing low ends the higher-low chain; the 61.8% of the London rally sits near 157.83
An M15 close above the 158.11 session high opens the path toward the 158.60 range top
A failure back through 157.65 london low would undo the post-sweep structure
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London false break below Asian low reversed, now pressing Asian range top.
London open pushed below the Asian range low at 157.75 to a 157.652 london low, then reversed. A steady higher-low chain has since carried price back to the 158.00 round number and the 158.038 asian high into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 70 on firm USD ahead of FOMC. The wider US goods trade deficit had little visible impact.
Support: 157.925, 157.85, 157.652
Resistance: 158.00, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.038 asian high breaks the Asian range top and the 24h window high
Close below the 157.925 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain; 157.85 swing low next
Repeated rejection at the 158.00 round number keeps price capped inside the Asian range
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, pressing range top · RSI 68 · price 157.956
Higher lows since 08:15 UTC false break of Asian low; price back at Asian high.
London broke the Asian low at 157.75 down to 157.65, then reversed. A higher-low chain since has carried price back to the Asian high at 157.99 into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) near 68. Firm USD ahead of today's FOMC is the backdrop, with the 158.04 prior high capping the window.
Support: 157.85, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.04 prior high clears the window range top
Break below the 157.85 higher low snaps the higher-low chain and the trendline
Return below the 157.75 Asian low would put the 157.65 London low back in play
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 63 · price 157.933
Rising lows from 157.65 pressing Asian high, inside 24h range.
London broke below the Asian low and the prior-day low to a 157.65 London low, then reversed. Since then a chain of rising lows has carried price back to the Asian high near 157.99/158.00 into the NY open as USD stays firm ahead of the Fed. RSI(14) ~63 and ATR ~5 pips show a compressed range.
Support: 157.85, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.99 Asian high and 158.00 opens the 158.04 24h high, breaking the range top
Close below the 157.85 pullback low breaks the rising-lows trendline
Back below 157.75 Asian low puts the 157.65 London low back in play
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 58 · price 157.934
False break below Asian low, then HL chain into a tight cap at 157.94.
London dipped through the Asian low at 157.748 to a 157.652 london low, then reversed. Higher lows since have carried price back to the 157.944 london high on a firm USD into the Fed. Late London into the NY open, price is compressing in a 157.85–157.94 band above a rising trendline. RSI(14) is near 58, neutral, and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 157.85, 157.80, 157.652
Resistance: 157.944, 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.944 london high opens the 157.994 asian high / 158.00 and the 158.038 24h high
Break of the rising trendline and the 157.85 range floor exposes 157.80 broken res, the fib 50% of the London rebound
Loss of the 157.652 london low negates the false-break read
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read and expand ATR
Higher-low chain from the London low, now compressing below the rebound high.
London broke below the Asian low at 157.748 to a 157.652 London low, then rebuilt a rising support chain back inside the Asian range on pre-FOMC USD firmness. Price now sits between the 157.85 range floor and the 157.944 rebound high into the London-NY transition, hugging EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 157.85, 157.748, 157.652
Resistance: 157.944, 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 range floor and the rising support line exposes the 157.748 Asian low
A break of the 157.944 rebound high puts the 157.994 Asian high and 158.038 prior high back in play
Hold of the 61.8% retrace of the London rebound keeps the higher-low chain intact
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low, back inside the Asian range.
London open produced a false break below the 157.748 Asian low, printing a 157.652 London low before price reclaimed the Asian range. The rebound has built higher lows but stalled at the 157.944 rebound high, compressing between 157.85 and 157.94 into the NY open, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 as firm USD into today's FOMC keeps the pair pinned near 158.
Support: 157.85, 157.748, 157.652
Resistance: 157.944, 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 157.748 Asian low back in play
Loss of the 157.652 London low would turn the false break into a lower-low
Close above the 157.994 Asian high opens the 158.038 24h high
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
False break below Asian low reclaimed; lower highs capping late London.
London open was rejected under the Asian high at 157.99. Price then made a false break below the Asian low at 157.75 to a London low at 157.65 and reclaimed the range on a firm USD into today's Fed. The rebound stalled at a lower high of 157.94 late in London, and price is now easing toward the 38.2% retrace of that rebound near 157.83, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) ~53.
Support: 157.748, 157.652
Resistance: 157.944, 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the asian low at 157.75 reopens the london low at 157.65
Break of the lower-highs line and a close above the asian high at 157.99 opens the prior high at 158.04
Hold of the 38.2–50% retrace (157.83–157.80) keeps the London rebound structure intact
11:17 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off London low · RSI 61 · price 157.882
Higher lows since 157.652, lower highs capping from 158.038.
London open broke below the 157.748 asian low to the 157.652 london low, then reclaimed it. Price built a higher low at 157.797 and stalled at a 157.944 lower high under the descending line from the 158.038 prior high, with USD firm but squaring up into the FOMC.
Support: 157.797, 157.748, 157.652
Resistance: 157.944, 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
Close above the lower highs line and 157.994 asian high reopens 158.038 prior high
Loss of 157.797 higher low and the 157.748 asian low exposes the 157.652 london low again
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 57 · price 157.914
False break below Asian low, reclaimed and climbing toward range top.
London open broke the asian low at 157.75 down to a london low of 157.65, then reclaimed it. Price has since built a clean trendline of higher lows to 157.91, near the 78.6% of the 157.98–157.65 drop. USD firmness into the Fed is holding the pair inside the 157.65–158.04 range, with the asian high at 157.99 and the 24h high at 158.04 overhead late in London.
Support: 157.87, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 asian high exposes the 158.04 24h high
Break of the trendline near 157.87 stalls the London recovery
Return below the 157.75 asian low reopens the 157.65 london low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Recovering from London low, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 157.881
London false break below Asian range, higher lows back toward range top.
London open faded from the 157.99 Asian high and broke below the 157.75 Asian low to a 157.65 London low. Buyers have since reclaimed the range with a higher-low chain, but the bounce is stalling near 157.89, under the 78.6% fib of the London drop, with the 158.04 day high just above.
Support: 157.75, 157.652
Resistance: 157.99, 158.038
What it said to watch
Close back below the 157.75 Asian low reopens the 157.65 London low
Close above the 157.99 Asian high puts the 158.04 day high in play
Failure at the 78.6% fib (~157.91) keeps price mid-range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from London dip · RSI 51 · price 157.861
Asian low swept at London open, higher lows since, back inside Asian range.
London open broke the 157.75 Asian low to a 157.65 London low but held above Tuesday's 157.58 prior low. Price has since printed higher lows and recovered back into the Asian range, sitting at the 61.8% retrace of the 157.98–157.65 London drop. The 157.99 Asian high and 158.04 day high cap the range as USD holds firm into FOMC.
Support: 157.75, 157.65, 157.58
Resistance: 157.91, 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 breakdown level puts the 157.99 Asian high and 158.04 day high back in play
Loss of the London HL line and the 157.75 Asian low reopens the 157.65 London low, then the 157.58 prior low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since Asia · RSI 51 · price 157.835
London false break below Asian low, recovering inside the Asian range.
London opened with a flush through the 157.75 Asian low to a 157.65 London low, then reclaimed the Asian range and has retraced about 55% of the drop to the 157.86 recovery hi. Highs keep stepping lower from the 158.04 window high and the 157.99 Asian high, consistent with the stalled momentum near 158.00 flagged ahead of the Fed.
Support: 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 157.86, 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.75 Asian low re-opens the 157.65 London low
A clean break of the 157.86 recovery hi and the 61.8% retrace exposes the 157.99 Asian high and the lower-highs line
Only a close above the 158.04 window high breaks the lower-highs sequence
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Intraday down from London high, rebounding · RSI 42 · price 157.804
Back inside Asian range after false break of its low; higher lows from 157.65.
London open faded from the 157.98 London high, broke the 157.75 Asian low to a 157.65 London low, then reclaimed the Asian range on rising lows. The rebound is stalling at 157.82, where the 50% retrace of the London drop meets EMA20, as USD holds firm in a pre-FOMC holding pattern.
Support: 157.75, 157.65, 157.58
Resistance: 157.82, 157.98, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.75 Asian low turns the false break into a breakdown, exposing the 157.65 London low and the 157.58 prior low
Close above the 157.82 50% / EMA20 cap opens the 157.98 London high, then the 158.04 prior high
Loss of the rising lows line off 157.65 negates the recovery structure
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday range, pre-FOMC chop · RSI 48 · price 157.791
London false break below the Asian low, price back inside the Asian range.
London open was rejected at the 157.98 london high, below the 158.04 asia high, then broke the 157.75 asian low to a 157.65 london low before reclaiming it. Price is back near 157.79, testing the 38.2% fib of the London drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 as USD holds firm into today's FOMC.
Support: 157.75, 157.65, 157.58
Resistance: 157.91, 157.98, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.75 asian low turns the false break into a range break toward the 157.65 london low
Hold of the 157.65 london low keeps the 157.58 prior low out of play
Reclaim of the 157.91 lower high (61.8% zone) reopens the 157.98 london high and the 158.04 asia high
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; price retesting the broken Asian low from below.
London open was rejected near the Asian high at 157.99, and the drop broke the Asian low at 157.75 to a london low of 157.65. Price is now capped at the broken asian low with a higher low at 157.68, RSI(14) neutral near 43, and pre-FOMC caution is limiting follow-through after the four-day USD/JPY run stalled under 158.00.
Support: 157.65, 157.58
Resistance: 157.76, 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.76 asian low invalidates the range-break read and reopens the 50% retrace near 157.82
Failure to hold the 157.65 london low exposes yesterday's prior low at 157.58
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London open · RSI 41 · price 157.689
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since London open.
London open was rejected at the london high of 157.98, just under 158.00, and price then broke the Asian low at 157.75 to a session low of 157.65. The 08:30 bounce stalled at the broken asian low, below the 38.2% of the London drop fib at 157.78. RSI(14) is near 41, price sits under both EMAs, and the move fits the fading momentum flagged in the JPY digest ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 157.65, 157.58
Resistance: 157.75, 157.98
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 157.75, and then the 157.78 fib, invalidates the range break
Failure to hold the 157.65 session low exposes yesterday's prior low at 157.58 and the 157.55 digest pivot
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the london high hold while price stays below the 157.86 61.8% retrace
Asian range low broken at London open; LH/LL chain.
Repeated rejection near 158.00 through Asia left lower highs. London open broke the Asian low at 157.75 and printed a 157.65 london low, and the bounce is stalling back at that level. RSI(14) sits near 39 with price below both EMAs as Katayama's intervention rhetoric caps the pair into the FOMC.
Support: 157.65, 157.58
Resistance: 157.75, 157.80, 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the fib 38.2 at 157.80 would mark the Asian low break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.65 london low exposes the 157.58 swing low from yesterday's London session
Lower highs trendline from 158.04 sits near 157.97; a break of the asian high at 157.99 resets the structure
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; 158.00 is the reaction pivot
08:32 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a 24h range · RSI 39 · price 157.707
Lower highs from 158.04, Asian low broken in London.
London open was rejected at 157.98, below the 158.04 Asian high, extending a run of lower highs. Price then broke the Asian low at 157.75 and printed a 157.65 session low, with RSI(14) near 39. The move is still inside yesterday's 157.58–158.04 range as the pair sits under 158.00 ahead of the Fed.
Support: 157.65, 157.58
Resistance: 157.75, 157.98, 158.04
What it said to watch
A reclaim and hold back above the asian low at 157.75 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.65 session low exposes yesterday's prior low at 157.58
An M15 close above the london high at 157.98 and the asian high at 158.04 invalidates the lower-highs read
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 158.04, 157.99 and 157.98; Asian range low broken at London open.
Supply capped Asia at 157.99, and a further lower high printed at 157.98 into London. The London open then broke the Asian low at 157.75, with the session low at 157.73. Price is now back below the 157.80 pivot as the 4-day yen-selling run stalls ahead of today's FOMC. RSI(14) is near 40, with no extreme in play.
Support: 157.727, 157.70, 157.584
Resistance: 157.75, 157.80, 157.982
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.80 pivot negates the Asian low break
Failure to hold the 157.70 NY lows exposes the Tuesday low at 157.58
A reclaim of the 157.98 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Powell's 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
157.75–157.99 Asian range, lower highs below 158.04 24h high.
London open finds USDJPY in the lower half of the 157.75–157.99 Asian range after a rejection at the 157.98 lower high pushed price back to the 157.80 uob pivot area (157.78 low). Rallies have stalled below the 158.04 24h high since Tokyo open, with RSI(14) at 44 and price under both EMAs into tonight's FOMC.
Support: 157.78, 157.75, 157.58
Resistance: 157.98, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.75 asian low breaks the range and exposes the prior low at 157.58
Close above the 157.98 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 158.04 24h high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (Powell 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.75–157.99; lower high at 157.98, pullback into the range middle.
The late NY high at 158.04 faded at the Asia open, and Asia then held a 157.75–157.99 range. A firm USD into FOMC and oil-driven yen softness kept dips shallow. The 06:30 UTC test of the Asian low was bought back to 157.98, short of the Asian high, and price is now near the 50% retrace of that leg into London open, with RSI(14) around 45 and price sitting marginally under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.80, 157.75, 157.58
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 157.99 and the 158.00 round number opens the late NY high at 158.04
Failure to hold the 157.80 pivot and the asian low at 157.75 shifts focus to yesterday's london low at 157.58
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Sideways, upper end of range · RSI 56 · price 157.966
Asian range 157.75–157.99, higher low at 157.85 into London open.
Asia session held a 157.75–157.99 range below the 158.04 24h high, and the London open has lifted price back toward the Asian high off a higher low at 157.85. USD is firm into today's FOMC, but at a ~6-pip ATR the 158.00 area has capped four tests overnight.
Support: 157.854, 157.80, 157.748
Resistance: 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.04 24h high breaks the range top
Loss of the 157.85 higher low puts the 157.80 pivot back in play
Failure to hold the 157.75 asian low exposes the lower half of the 24h range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.75–157.99 capped by lower highs from 158.04.
London open finds USD/JPY at 157.94, in the upper half of the 157.75–157.99 Asian range after the 158.04 overnight hi met rejection at the Tokyo open. Demand held the 157.75 asian low just under the 157.80 pivot, and the rebound has retraced about 78% of the asian swing lower. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 157.855, 157.748
Resistance: 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.99 asian high and the 158.04 overnight hi would break the lower-highs line
Losing the 157.855 pullback low reopens the 157.75 asian low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Any MoF/Katayama escalation as the pair presses 158 could trigger an abrupt yen bid
Asian range 157.75–158.04 with lower highs; mid-range ahead of London open.
The four-day USD/JPY rally on a firm pre-FOMC dollar tagged 158.04 near the Tokyo open and was rejected. Supply then capped price three times at the 157.99 asia cap before a dip to the 157.75 asia low. The late-Asia bounce stalled at the 157.95 bounce high, and price now sits on the ema20 around 157.89, about 9 pips above the 157.80 pivot.
Support: 157.80, 157.748, 157.584
Resistance: 157.947, 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.99 asia cap and the 158.04 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and the Asian range top
Failure to hold the 157.80 pivot and the 157.75 asia low confirms a lower low, exposing the 157.58 prior low
Rejection again at the 157.95 bounce high keeps price in the lower half of the Asian range, below the asia drop fib 61.8% zone
Katayama/MoF rhetoric as the pair presses 158 could trigger abrupt yen moves; FOMC 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk later today
06:31 UTC
Sideways, rebounding inside Asian range · RSI 56 · price 157.945
Asian range 157.75–157.99, lower highs below 158.04 overnight high.
Late Asia session rejected the 157.748 Asian low and reclaimed the 157.80 pivot. Price has retraced roughly 80% of the 157.994–157.748 drop into the London open, with the Asian high and the 158.04 overnight high forming lower highs. USD is firm into today's FOMC, while yesterday's 157.584 London low marks the base of the range.
Support: 157.80, 157.748, 157.584
Resistance: 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.994 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 158.04 overnight high in play
A move back below the 157.80 pivot reopens the 157.748 Asian low
Failure to hold the Asian low exposes yesterday's 157.584 London low
FOMC statement at 18:00 UTC and Powell's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF/Katayama FX rhetoric near 158 could spark an abrupt yen move
Late-Asia range 157.75–157.99 after failed push above 158.00.
USD/JPY is chopping inside a 157.75–157.99 Asian range after the Tokyo-open spike high at 158.04 failed back below 158.00. The rebound off the asia low has retraced about 60% of the asia drop, while the higher lows line from Tuesday's 157.58 london low still holds. RSI(14) sits neutral near 51 and price is pinned to both EMAs ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 157.75, 157.58
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 range top and 158.04 spike high breaks the Asian range higher, with MoF warnings flagged around 158
Failure to hold the 157.75 asia low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 157.58 london low
London open in under 2h is the first test of the asia range
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Range, slipping in late Asia · RSI 44 · price 157.843
Lower high at 157.99 under the 158.04 24h high, minor lower low at 157.75.
The four-day yen slide on oil-driven import costs carried the pair to a 24h high of 158.04 just before Tokyo open, then a rejection there set an Asian high of 157.99 and a dip to the 157.75 Asian low. Late Asia is bouncing to 157.84, about 38.2% of that drop and near the 157.80 pivot, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 157.75, 157.70, 157.58
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.75 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.70 NY low, then the 157.58 London low
A close above the 157.99 Asian high and the descending trendline reopens the 158.04 24h high
London open in ~2h may break the Asian range
FOMC 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 157.99.
Tokyo open rejected the 158.04 spike high, and the Asia drop from the 157.99 Asian high broke the range floor in the last hour, printing a session low at 157.75. Price is pinned just under the 157.80 pivot with RSI(14) near 35 as the four-day yen slide stalls into FOMC.
Support: 157.748, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.80, 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
Close back above the 157.80 pivot returns price inside the Asian range; the 50% retrace of the Asia drop sits near 157.87
Failure to hold the 157.75 session low exposes the 157.70 NY low, then the 157.58 London low
Asian high 157.99 and spike high 158.04 cap the topside; a close above 158.04 negates the rejection
London open in about an hour typically resets the session range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia capped at 157.99, late-Asia break below rising support.
The Asia session was capped three times at the 157.99 asia highs, below the 158.04 session high. Late-Asia selling then printed a 157.755 session low, breaking rising support from the 157.70 ny swing low and pressing the 157.80 pivot. RSI(14) is near 33 with price below EMA20/50 heading into London, and yen firmness stays modest as the market waits on today's FOMC.
Support: 157.755, 157.698, 157.584
Resistance: 157.828, 157.99, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.83 (fib 61.8) reclaims the broken rising support and neutralises the break
Failure to hold the 157.755 session low exposes the 157.70 ny swing low, then the 157.58 prior low
London open around 07:00 UTC is the first test of whether the late-Asia break extends or gets rejected
FOMC at 18:00 UTC: hawkish oil-inflation guidance versus a disinflation nod could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from 158.00 · RSI 33 · price 157.816
Triple top near 157.99 below the 158.04 session high, 157.86 neckline broken, lower highs.
Late Asia failed to hold a brief false break of 158.00, a spike to the 158.038 session high, and was capped three times near 157.99. Price has slipped through the 157.86 neckline and is pressing the 157.79 asian low and the 157.80 pivot, with RSI(14) near 33 and the rising trendline from the 157.70 ny low giving way despite the firm USD into FOMC.
Support: 157.788, 157.70, 157.584
Resistance: 157.863, 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 asian low confirms the triple-top break and exposes the 157.70 ny low, then the 157.58 london low
Recovery back above the 157.86 neckline negates the triple-top read and returns price to the 157.86–157.99 range
A push through the 158.04 session high would turn the 158.00 false break into a breakout
London open in about 2h is the next volatility window; FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia session. Price is holding inside a 157.79–157.99 Asian range after the 158.04 open spike high was rejected. Supply has capped the 158.00 round number four times. Lows keep stepping up, from the 157.58 swing through the 157.70 NY low and the 157.79 Asian low to the 157.86 higher low, as the four-day yen slide on firm USD and oil keeps price pinned beneath 158.00.
Support: 157.863, 157.788, 157.698
Resistance: 158.00, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.04 spike high breaks the Asian range top and the 158.00 round number cap
Loss of the 157.86 higher low and then the 157.79 Asian low breaks the rising lows sequence
A break below the 157.70 NY low would put price back at the 61.8% retracement of the 157.58–158.04 leg
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today, presser 18:30, could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama FX rhetoric as price sits at 158.00 can trigger abrupt spikes
Higher lows from yesterday's London low; Asia compressing under the 158.038 Asian high.
The Tokyo-open spike to the 158.038 Asian high was rejected down to the 157.788 Asian low. Price has since compressed in a 157.86–157.99 band, with the swing low at 157.863 and the range top at 157.994 defining it, and rising lows from yesterday's London trough still intact. The four-day yen slide on firm USD and oil near $100 explains the grind, but 158.00 is capping into FOMC.
Support: 157.863, 157.788, 157.698
Resistance: 157.994, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.994 range top and 158.038 Asian high breaks the Asia compression
Loss of the 157.863 swing low and the rising-lows line puts the 157.788 Asian low back in play
A break under 157.788 exposes yesterday's NY low at 157.698 and breaks the higher-low chain
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Higher lows pressing into a flat 157.99 cap after the early-Asia flush.
Late-Asia spike to the 158.04 window high reversed at the Tokyo open into a 157.79 tokyo low. Since then the pair has printed higher lows (latest 157.86) into an asia cap at 157.99 that has rejected three times, with firm USD into the FOMC and WTI near $100 keeping the pair pinned near 158.00. RSI(14) neutral near 57, ATR about 6 pips, ny low 157.70 the deeper reference from Tuesday's session.
Support: 157.86, 157.79, 157.70
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 asia cap and the 158.04 window high breaks the compression
Loss of the 157.86 higher low and the rising-lows trendline turns focus back to the 157.79 tokyo low
Break of the 157.79 tokyo low exposes Tuesday's 157.70 ny low
London open in about 3h is the first test of the asia cap
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into 158.00 · RSI 59 · price 157.984
Higher lows, pressing Asian range top.
Mid-Asia session, the Tokyo-open rejection from the 158.038 session high found demand at the 157.788 Asian low. Price is back at the 158.00 round number, with higher lows from the 157.698 NY low and the 157.863 swing low intact on the trendline. Firm USD into FOMC and oil-driven yen weakness explain the grind, while ATR near 6 pips keeps moves compact.
Support: 157.863, 157.788, 157.698
Resistance: 158.00, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.038 session high breaks the Asian range top
Failure to hold the 157.863 swing low and the higher-low trendline shifts the read to a range back toward the 157.788 asian low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC today, presser 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Escalating MoF/Katayama FX rhetoric above 158.00 is a headline risk to the structure
Asian range 157.79–158.04, lower highs and higher lows contracting.
Asia session saw a rejection at the 158.04 session high right at the Tokyo open, with a drop to the 157.79 asian low before buyers stepped back in. Price is now coiling between a 157.99 lower high and a 157.86 higher low, sitting just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral. The four-day run on a firm dollar into FOMC has stalled under 158.00.
Support: 157.86, 157.79, 157.70
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.04 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and the 158.00 cap
Failure to hold the 157.86 higher low reopens the 157.79 asian low, which is also the 157.80 pivot
A break of 157.79 exposes the NY low at 157.70
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.79–158.04, mid-range drift after a capped rebound.
The early-Asia push through 158.00 to the 158.04 asian high was rejected at the Tokyo open, dropping price to the 157.79 asian low. The rebound stalled twice at the 157.99 rebound cap, and price now sits mid-range just under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43. The higher-low trendline from the 157.58 London low through the 157.70 ny low and the 157.79 asian low is still intact, with the four-day yen slide backed by oil and a firm USD into the Fed.
Support: 157.79, 157.70
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 asian low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday higher-low chain, exposing the 157.70 ny low
Close above the 157.99 rebound cap and the 158.04 asian high reopens the 158.00 breakout attempt
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 presser could materially shift this read
Price holding the 61.8% fib near 157.83 keeps the pullback shallow
Asia-session range 157.79–158.04, lower highs capping near 157.99.
A false break above 158.00 printed the session high at 158.04 just before the Tokyo open and reversed to the asia low at 157.79. Three later pushes met rejection at the 157.99 triple cap, and price is now back at 157.90, just under EMA20/EMA50 and at the 50% fib of the 157.79–157.99 rebound. JPY stays soft into FOMC, with the pair holding above UOB's 157.80 pivot near the asia low.
Support: 157.85, 157.79, 157.70
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.85 swing low exposes the asia low at 157.79 and the 157.80 pivot
M15 close below 157.79 breaks the range and rising support, opening the 157.70 ny low
M15 close above the 157.99 triple cap brings the 158.04 session high back into play
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC (press conference 18:30) could materially shift this read
Asia range 157.79–158.04 after rejection of the 158.00 spike; higher low at 157.85.
The Asia open spike to the 158.04 asia high failed above 158.00, dropping to the 157.79 asia low near the 157.80 pivot before buyers stepped back in. Highs have since capped at 157.99 (repeat highs) over a 157.85 higher low, with price holding yesterday's rising lows as JPY stays soft into today's FOMC. RSI(14) is neutral at 48 and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 157.85, 157.79, 157.70
Resistance: 157.99, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 repeat highs and the 158.04 asia high breaks the Asia range to the upside
Failure to hold the 157.85 higher low and the 157.79 asia low exposes the 157.70 ny low and the rising lows line
FOMC at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
The Tokyo open brought a rejection from the round number at 158.00, with the Asia high at 158.04 setting the top. The drop held a higher low at the Asia low of 157.79, just above the 157.80 pivot, and price has rebuilt to 157.95 with a further higher low at 157.85, keeping the chain off the NY swing low at 157.70 intact as JPY stays soft into the Fed.
Support: 157.85, 157.79, 157.70
Resistance: 158.00, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.04 Asia high extends the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 157.85 higher low puts the 157.79 Asia low and trendline back in play
Break below the 157.70 swing low invalidates the rising trendline read
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC with the presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HL chain from 157.55; Tokyo-open rejection at 158.04, rebound capped near 157.99.
Firm USD into the FOMC lifted the pair through 157.80 on a higher-low chain from 157.55. The Tokyo open rejected a probe of 158.00 at the 158.04 session high. The dip held the 157.79 tokyo low near the 50–61.8% fib and the rising trendline, and the rebound has stalled just under 157.99 with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 157.788, 157.698
Resistance: 157.99, 158.038
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.04 session high clears the Tokyo-open rejection and the 158.00 round number
Failure at the 157.99 rebound high followed by a break of the 157.79 tokyo low breaks the rising trendline
A loss of the 157.70 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; BoJ on Friday is the next yen risk
HL chain from 157.55; Asia rejected at 158.04, now retesting.
A higher-low chain has run from 157.55 through London and NY. Early Asia probed through the 158.00 round number to a 158.04 session high, then rejected to the 157.79 asian low, close to the 50% fib of the move. Price has recovered to retest the high, with RSI(14) neutral at 56, as JPY stays soft on fading risk-off demand ahead of the Fed and BoJ.
Support: 157.85, 157.788, 157.698
Resistance: 158.00, 158.038
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.04 session high and the 158.00 round number extends the higher-low chain
A second rejection at 158.04 puts the 157.85 higher low in focus as the first test
A break below the 157.79 asian low (50% fib, UOB 157.80 pivot) undercuts the higher-low trendline and points to a range read
Loss of the 157.70 NY swing low breaks the intraday uptrend structure
FOMC at 18:00 UTC today, with the press conference at 18:30, could materially shift this read; BoJ follows Friday
01:32 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection at 158.00 · RSI 45 · price 157.884
HH/HL chain from 157.55 intact; Asia session building a 157.79–157.93 range below a fresh lower high.
The 24h grind up from 157.55 spiked to the 158.04 session high just before the Tokyo open and was rejected. Price dropped to the 157.79 session low, about a 73% retracement of the leg off the 157.70 NY low. The rebound stalled at 157.93, a lower high, and price now sits just under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 45. Yen softness into the Fed and BoJ has kept dips shallow, and the 157.80 pivot cited in market commentary is holding for now.
Support: 157.788, 157.698
Resistance: 157.933, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 session low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 157.70 NY low
Close back above the 157.93 lower high reopens a retest of the 158.04 session high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; Asia session liquidity is thin until then
Higher-low chain; Asia session pullback from 158.00 held at 157.79.
A late-NY grind into early Asia reached a 158.04 swing high. The Asia session open then saw a rejection at the 158.00 round number, dropping to a 157.79 session low that held above the rising trendline from yesterday's London low. Price has recovered to 157.93 on the EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 51, and yen softness from the digest is still underpinning the higher-low sequence.
Support: 157.788, 157.698
Resistance: 158.00, 158.038
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 session low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.70 NY low
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number and the 158.04 swing high resumes the higher-high sequence
Break of the rising trendline (~157.79 area) shifts the read from uptrend to range
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after rejection at 158.04 · RSI 44 · price 157.864
Higher lows intact; lower high at 157.93 after the Tokyo-open reversal.
The grind higher from the 157.58 london low ran to a 158.04 session high just before Tokyo open. The 00:00 UTC bar then reversed about 20 pips to a 157.79 session low, near the 157.80 pivot. Price sits at the 38.2% retrace around 157.86, below both EMAs, with a 157.93 lower high capping. Higher lows still hold on rising support against a soft-yen backdrop into Fed and BoJ.
Support: 157.79, 157.70, 157.58
Resistance: 157.93, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 session low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.70 ny low
Reclaim of the 157.93 lower high reopens the 158.04 session high and the 158.00 round number
FOMC at 18:00 UTC today, then BoJ on Oct 30, could materially shift this read
False break above 158.00 at Tokyo open; pullback into the prior grind-up leg.
A thin late-NY and early-Asia grind pushed briefly through 158.00 to a 158.04 session high. The Tokyo open rejected that move, sending price 25 pips lower to a 157.79 session low, just under the 157.80 level flagged in the yen digest. Price is back at the 61.8% zone of the NY-Asia leg fib from the 157.70 NY swing low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 43; the bounce high at 157.93 is the first cap.
Support: 157.79, 157.70
Resistance: 157.93, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 session low exposes the 157.70 NY swing low and voids the NY-Asia leg fib
Recovery above the 157.93 bounce high puts the 158.04 session high back in play
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC today (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since the 157.58 London low; early Asia rejected at 158.04.
Higher lows have stacked since London's 157.58 low, and the NY session pushed to 157.95 as USD stayed firm and the yen stayed soft. Early Asia tagged a session high of 158.04 and was rejected back under the 158.00 psych level. RSI(14) near 57 shows cooling momentum, with price still above the asia low at 157.89 and the rising trendline.
Support: 157.89, 157.85, 157.80
Resistance: 158.00, 158.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.04 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the rising trendline and the 157.85 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Break back below the 157.80 uob pivot (50% fib zone) would undo NY's breakout
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read