Higher-low chain off 157.59 low, testing 50% retrace.
The 20:00 UTC break from the 157.77–158.01 NY range ran to a 157.59 day low, a sweep just under the prior Asian low at 157.60. Early Asia has since printed a higher-low chain along a rising line to 157.79, the 50% fib of the drop, with ema50 overhead and the 157.98 drop origin and 158.13 day high (ECB spike) above. Tokyo CPI has printed, but actuals are not yet in the feed.
Support: 157.70, 157.59
Resistance: 157.80, 157.98, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.83 (61.8% fib) and ema50 reopens the 157.98 drop origin
Loss of the 157.70 higher low and the rising line returns focus to the 157.59 day low
BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC and Ueda presser 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan Retail Trade at 23:50 UTC; Tokyo CPI actuals still pending
23:32 UTC
Range-bound after late NY drop, stabilising · RSI 49 · price 157.739
Asian low swept and reclaimed; lower highs since 20:00 UTC.
After the ECB-time spike to the day high at 158.13 faded, the NY range top near 157.98 gave way at 20:00 UTC on weak US tech earnings. The post-rollover dip briefly swept the Asian low at 157.60, printing 157.59, and price reclaimed it. Price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 49, capped by lower highs at the late high of 157.78 into the Tokyo open.
Support: 157.60, 157.50
Resistance: 157.78, 157.98, 158.13
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex fresh food f/c 2.6%) lands on the next bar; a hot print that breaks the Asian low at 157.60 exposes the 157.50 round number
M15 close above the late high at 157.78 breaks the lower-highs line and brings the NY range top at 157.98 back into view
BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could break the day's range, either toward the day high at 158.13 or below 157.50
Lower highs from 158.13, false break of Asian low.
The US GDP beat briefly lifted the pair to a 158.13 day high early in the NY session before renewed dollar selling set a series of lower highs. A 20:00 UTC drop broke the 157.77–157.98 range top, and price dipped through the Asian low to 157.59 before closing back above, a false break so far. RSI(14) is at 42 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 157.592, 157.50
Resistance: 157.737, 157.982, 158.127
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 157.59 sweep low turns the false break into a lower low and exposes the 157.50 round number
Recovery above the 157.74 rebound cap targets the 38.2% retracement of the day high–sweep low leg near 157.80
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 157.98 range top breaks the intraday lower-high sequence
NY range floor broken late session; lower highs since 20:00 UTC.
A 30-pip drop at 20:00 UTC broke the NY range floor near 157.77 as the dollar faded on soft US income and spending data. Price is now testing the Asian low at 157.60 in thin post-rollover trade. Lower highs at the 157.98 drop high and the 157.74 rollover high cap bounces, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 157.60, 157.50
Resistance: 157.74, 157.77, 157.98
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.60 asian low opens the 157.50 round number
Recovery above the 157.77 range floor returns price to the NY range and negates the break
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, then the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Break of the lower highs line from the 157.98 drop high would signal the selloff stalling
NY range broken lower; tight base above Asian low.
The US GDP spike to the 158.13 day high faded on soft income and spending data. A 29-pip drop in late NY from the 157.98 lower high then broke the 157.71 NY low. Price is basing between the 157.64 late NY low and 157.74 through thin post-NY hours, just above the 157.60 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 157.639, 157.602, 157.50
Resistance: 157.711, 157.982, 158.127
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.64 late NY low and 157.60 Asian low exposes the 157.50 round number
Reclaim of the 157.71 NY low, then a break of the 157.98 lower high, would neutralise the late-NY range break
21:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY · RSI 36 · price 157.669
Lower highs from 158.13; late-NY breakdown stalled above Asian low.
The US data beat lifted the pair in the NY session to 158.13, a false break above the 158.07 Asian high, before rejection and a lower-high sequence formed. A 30-pip drop late in NY broke the 157.77 NY base, and price is stalling in thin post-close trade at the 157.64 late NY low. That sits just above the 157.60 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 36 and price below EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 157.639, 157.602
Resistance: 157.77, 157.982, 158.127
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break below the 157.60 Asian low extends the lower-high/lower-low sequence beyond the day's range
Recovery above the 157.77 NY base, then the 157.98 lower high, would breach the lower-highs trendline and negate the late-NY breakdown
Only a move back above the 158.13 day high revives the upper end of the range
21:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the US data spike · RSI 34 · price 157.661
NY range 157.77–158.01 broken lower late NY; price sitting just above the Asian low into rollover.
The Q3 GDP beat pushed the pair to a 158.127 gdp high early in NY, which was rejected within a bar. NY then held a 157.77–158.01 range with lower highs before a 30-pip late-NY drop broke the range floor and printed a 157.639 ny low. Price now sits just above the 157.602 asian low in thin rollover trade, RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 157.639, 157.602, 157.50
Resistance: 157.77, 157.982, 158.127
What it said to watch
Close below the 157.602 asian low exposes the 157.50 round number
Recovery back above the 157.77 range floor would turn the late-NY move into a false break
The lower highs trendline near 157.98 caps rebounds; a close above it re-opens the 158.127 gdp high
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Intraday range broken lower late NY · RSI 34 · price 157.661
157.77–157.98 NY range lost; price near Asian low.
The US data spike to 158.13 faded, and NY held a 157.77 range floor to 157.98 range top. A 30-pip drop at 20:00 UTC broke that range and set a late-NY low at 157.639, taking price below the 157.71 post-data low. Price is now holding just above the 157.60 Asian low in thin post-close trade, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR(14) about 7.5 pips.
Support: 157.639, 157.602
Resistance: 157.711, 157.77, 157.982
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.60 Asian low takes out the day's floor
Recovery back above the 157.77 range floor negates the range break
Late-NY drop: the 50–61.8% retracement near 157.81–157.85 caps any rebound inside the old range
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since the 158.13 high · RSI 35 · price 157.703
Late-NY range break below 157.71, now testing toward the Asian low.
The post-GDP spike to the 158.13 day high faded, and price held 157.71-158.00 through NY before a ~30-pip drop in the final hour from the 157.98 lower high. That move broke the 157.71 NY lows. Price is now just above the 157.64 late-NY low and the 157.60 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 157.639, 157.602, 157.50
Resistance: 157.711, 157.982, 158.127
What it said to watch
A break below the 157.60 Asian low extends the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 157.50 round number.
A recovery back above the 157.71 NY lows would mark the late drop as a false break.
A close above the 157.98 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the 158.13 day high.
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from 158.13 session high; NY range broken late session.
A 29-pip drop at 20:00 UTC broke the 157.77–157.98 NY range and extended the lower-highs sequence from the 158.13 post-GDP session high. Price now sits a few pips above the 157.60 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 32 but not yet at an extreme.
Support: 157.60, 157.50
Resistance: 157.77, 157.98
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.60 Asian low opens the 157.50 round number
M15 close back above the 157.77 range low puts price back inside the NY range and negates the break
Rebound into the 50–61.8% retrace of the session-high drop (157.89–157.95) would test the lower-highs line and the 157.98 range top
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late-NY range break below 157.77–158.01, lower high under 158.13.
A 30-pip drop at 20:00 UTC knocked USDJPY out of its 157.77–158.01 NY range and through the 157.71 NY low to a 157.67 session low. RSI(14) sits near 32. Price is now pinned just above that low, with the 158.01 range top and the 158.13 day high (the post-US-data reversal point) well overhead.
Support: 157.671, 157.602, 157.50
Resistance: 157.711, 158.011, 158.127
What it said to watch
A close back above the 157.71 NY low puts price inside the range and turns the drop into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.67 session low exposes the 157.60 asian low and 157.50 psych
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A recovery to the 158.01 range top would neutralise the range-break read
20:17 UTC
Range broken lower late in NY session · RSI 34 · price 157.695
NY range breakdown, testing below the post-data low.
A 30-pip bar late in NY hours broke the 157.77 ny range low and the 157.71 post-data low. Price is now parked near the 157.67 drop low with RSI(14) near 34, and the 157.60 asian low is the next swing below. The pair had held a 157.77–158.01 band beneath the 158.13 day high set after the US GDP beat.
Support: 157.67, 157.60
Resistance: 157.77, 158.01, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.77 ny range low turns the drop into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.67 drop low exposes the 157.60 asian low
Retracement of the day high to drop low move stalling below 158.01 ny range top keeps the breakdown intact
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday range, micro higher lows into late NY · RSI 60 · price 157.97
Higher-low chain off 157.765 pressing the 158.00 round number inside the 157.71–158.13 post-data range.
The Q3 GDP beat lifted the pair to a 158.127 day high early in the NY session. The soft income and spending data then cut it to the 157.711 data low. Since the 157.765 pivot low, late-NY bars have printed higher lows (157.836, 157.887 swing low) and price is back at the 158.00 round number, about 62% of the data drop fib.
Support: 157.887, 157.765, 157.711
Resistance: 158.00, 158.127
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.887 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 157.765 pivot low
Sustained trade above the 158.00 round number puts the 158.127 day high back in focus
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read in Asia
Loss of 157.711 data low would undo the entire post-data rebound
19:47 UTC
Rangebound, mild recovery off NY low · RSI 56 · price 157.913
Higher lows inside the 157.71–158.13 post-data range, still within the Asian range.
The GDP-beat pop was rejected at the 158.127 session high. Soft US income and spending data then dragged price to the 157.711 spike low, keeping it inside the Asian range. Late NY trade is now consolidating near the 50% retracement of that drop, with higher lows from the 157.765 NY low and supply capping at the 157.967 late NY high, near the 61.8% level.
Support: 157.836, 157.765, 157.711
Resistance: 157.967, 158.011, 158.127
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.967 late NY high (61.8% of the data drop) opens the 158.011 bounce high and the 158.127 session high
Failure to hold the 157.836 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 157.765 NY low and the 157.711 spike low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Sideways, minor higher lows · RSI 58 · price 157.906
Post-data range 157.77–158.01, higher lows inside.
The US data run lifted the pair to a 158.13 day high in the first hour of NY. It then reversed 40 pips to a 157.71 data low as soft income and spending figures weighed on the dollar. Since then price has held a 157.77–158.01 range with a higher low at 157.84, and the late-NY push stalled at the 157.97 fib 61.8 of that drop, with RSI(14) near 58 and flat EMAs reflecting a quiet tape ahead of Tokyo data.
Support: 157.836, 157.765, 157.711
Resistance: 157.967, 158.011, 158.127
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.97 fib 61.8 opens the 158.01 range high and the 158.13 day high
Failure to hold the 157.84 higher low returns focus to the 157.77 range low and the 157.71 data low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could expand the range well beyond the ~6-pip ATR
The US GDP and claims beat spiked the pair to a 158.127 day high at 13:15 UTC, but renewed dollar selling rejected it to 157.711 within one bar. Late NY has printed a higher low at 157.836 above the 157.765 swing low, with the late NY high at 157.967 sitting on the 61.8% retrace of the data drop.
Support: 157.836, 157.765, 157.602
Resistance: 157.967, 158.011, 158.127
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.967 late NY high (61.8% of the data drop) opens the 158.011 post-data high and the 158.127 day high
Loss of the 157.836 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 157.765 swing low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the 157.602 Asian low is the next reference below
19:02 UTC
Range-bound, late NY grind higher · RSI 59 · price 157.943
Rising lows inside 157.76–158.01 post-data range.
The 12:30 UTC US GDP and claims beat lifted the pair to a 158.127 session high. The move was rejected within the hour, and price dropped to 157.71. Since then NY has held a 157.765–158.011 range, with rising lows off the ny low now lifting price to the 50% fib of that drop near 157.95, still below the 158.011 lower high and inside the Asian range of 157.602–158.066.
Support: 157.836, 157.765, 157.602
Resistance: 158.011, 158.066, 158.127
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.011 lower high reopens the 158.066 asia high and 158.127 session high
Failure to hold the 157.836 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.765 ny low
Break below the 157.602 asia low ends the range read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift since NY low · RSI 58 · price 157.928
NY range 157.765–157.95 after the post-data rejection; higher lows building.
After the 12:30 UTC US data, a push to the 158.127 day high was rejected and the 13:30 bar fell to the 157.711 data low. Price then set a 158.011 lower high and has ranged in late NY between the 157.765 NY low and the 157.95 range top, printing a higher low at 157.836 and sitting at the 50% retracement of the post-data drop near 157.92. ATR(14) has compressed to about 8 pips heading into Tokyo CPI and the BoJ.
Support: 157.836, 157.765, 157.711
Resistance: 157.949, 158.011, 158.127
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.95 range top opens the 158.011 lower high, then the 158.127 day high
A break of the 157.836 higher low breaks rising support and exposes the 157.765 NY low and the 157.711 data low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Sideways, compressing after NY data spike · RSI 55 · price 157.91
Late-NY range 157.84–157.94, higher lows inside the day's 157.60–158.13 range.
The 12:30 UTC US data (GDP beat, softer income and spending) pushed USD/JPY through the 158.07 Asian high to a 158.13 session high. The break failed, and price slid to 157.71, a rejection that keeps the day inside the 157.60 asian low to 158.13 range. Late NY is now compressing beneath the 157.94 range top on higher lows off the 157.77 NY low, between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements of the asian low to session high leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 157.84, 157.77, 157.60
Resistance: 157.94, 158.07, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.94 range top reopens the 158.07 asian high and 158.13 session high
Failure to hold the 157.84 higher lows exposes the 157.77 NY low and the 61.8% retracement near 157.80
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
A break below the 157.60 asian low would turn the day's structure lower
18:17 UTC
Intraday down, compressing after post-data drop · RSI 46 · price 157.849
Lower highs over a flat 157.71–157.77 base.
London pushed through the Asian range top to a 158.13 session high, but the selloff after the mixed US data (GDP beat, income/spending misses) dropped the pair to the 157.71 data low, a false break. NY has since compressed above the 157.77 ny low under a falling trendline of lower highs, with bounces stalling between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 157.711, 157.602
Resistance: 157.94, 158.127
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.94 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the post-data compression
A reclaim of the 61.8% fib (~157.97) of the post-data drop negates the lower-high sequence back toward the 158.13 session high
Failure to hold the 157.77 ny low exposes the 157.71 data low, then the 157.60 asian low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Tightening range 157.77–157.94 late NY, lower highs vs rising lows.
Mixed US data (GDP beat, income/spending miss) lifted the pair to the 158.13 session high before a rejection at the NY open into the 157.71 data low. Since then it has compressed late in the NY session between the 157.77 NY lows and 157.94. Lower highs and rising lows are squeezing price into the EMA50 near 157.90, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 157.77, 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 157.94, 158.01, 158.13
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 157.94 breaks the lower highs line and opens the 158.01 swing high, then the 158.13 session high
Failure to hold the 157.77 NY lows breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 157.71 data low, then the 157.60 Asia low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric remains a cap on any extension toward 158.50
17:47 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 157.883
Post-data range 157.765–157.94 with lower highs below the 158.127 session high.
The 12:30 UTC US data hit (GDP beat, income and spending miss) knocked the pair from the 158.127 session high to a 157.711 data low. Since then, NY trade has compressed between the ny low at 157.765 and the range top near 157.94 after London close. That puts price at the 50% retrace of the asia low-to-high leg, with RSI(14) neutral and EMA20 and EMA50 converging.
Support: 157.765, 157.711, 157.602
Resistance: 157.94, 158.011, 158.127
What it said to watch
Close above 157.94 range top, then the 158.011 ny high, breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.127 session high
Failure at the 157.765 ny low exposes the 157.711 data low and the 61.8% retrace near 157.80
Loss of the data low brings the 157.602 asia low back into view
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the Asia session
157.71–158.01 post-data range with rising lows; wider 157.60–158.13 day range.
The US data push to the 158.13 session high was rejected, dropping to a 157.71 data low on the mixed GDP and income/spending prints. Late NY has built rising lows off the 157.77 ny base and sits at the 50% retrace of the data drop near 157.92, inside a 157.71–158.01 range with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 157.77, 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 157.97, 158.01, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.01 ny high breaks the post-data range and reopens the 158.13 session high
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 157.97 keeps the range intact below the ny high
Failure to hold the 157.77 ny base breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.71 data low, then the 157.60 asian low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
157.77–158.01 range below a failed break of the Asian high.
A push above the Asian high to a 158.13 session high was rejected in the first hour of NY. The pair fell to the 157.71 NY low after mixed US data, with the GDP beat offset by misses in income and spending. Since then it has held a 157.77–158.01 range, with the range low defended three times; after London close price is back at the 50% retrace of the NY drop near 157.92, RSI(14) ~56.
Support: 157.77, 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 158.01, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.01 range high breaks the post-data lower-high sequence, exposing the 158.13 session high and then the 158.35 fed high
Failure to hold the 157.77 range low brings the 157.71 ny low and 157.60 asian low back into play
Rejection near the 61.8% of the NY drop fib (~157.97) keeps the range intact
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF intervention rhetoric near 158.50 caps upside extension
NY range 157.77–158.01 below a rejected 158.13 session high; Asian low intact.
Mixed US data (GDP beat, income/spending miss) stalled the London climb at the 158.13 session high. The 13:30 UTC flush to the 157.71 data low held near the 78.6% retrace of the London leg off the 157.60 asian low. Since then, late NY has chopped inside a 157.77 ny range low to 158.01 ny range top box. Price is sitting on a flat EMA20 near the 50% fib, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 157.77, 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 158.01, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.77 ny range low exposes the 157.71 data low and the 157.60 asian low
Close above the 158.01 ny range top reopens the 158.13 session high; the 158.35 prior high (Fed-day spike) sits just under the 158.50 intervention-talk zone
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing a flat 157.77 floor after the NY rejection.
London ground higher from the 157.602 asian low. NY then rejected the 158.127 session high on the mixed US data dump and dropped to a 157.711 ny low. Since then price has compressed into a lower high sequence above a 157.765 range floor, sitting on the 50% retrace (157.86) of the asian-low-to-high leg after London close.
Support: 157.765, 157.711, 157.602
Resistance: 157.905, 158.011, 158.127
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.765 range floor and the 61.8% retrace near 157.80 exposes the 157.711 ny low, then the 157.602 asian low
A close above the 157.905 lower high and the 158.011 range cap breaks the descending sequence and puts the 158.127 session high back in view
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since session high · RSI 39 · price 157.784
Lower highs below 157.91, pressing NY low 157.71.
The post-US-data push to the 158.13 session high was rejected. NY has since carved lower highs capped near 157.91, as mixed GDP and income figures tempered the USD bid. Price is now sitting on the 157.71 NY low, just under the 61.8% retrace of the 157.60 Asian low-to-session high move, with RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.71 NY low exposes the 157.60 Asian low
M15 close above 157.91 breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the pullback read
A retest of the 158.13 session high would only follow a reclaim of 157.91
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 158.01 after a rejection from the 158.13 session high.
London's grind to the 158.13 session high reversed after mixed US data (GDP beat, income and spending missed), and the first hour of NY knocked the pair to the 157.71 NY low. Since then, lower highs from 158.01 have compressed price around 157.85, inside the 50–61.8% retrace of the Asian low to session high move. RSI(14) sits near 44 and ATR(14) is about 12 pips.
Support: 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 158.01, 158.13
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.71 NY low exposes the 157.60 Asian low
A close above the 158.01 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 158.13 session high back into view
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Sideways, mild downside drift since NY reversal · RSI 44 · price 157.856
After the US GDP beat, NY hours pushed above the Asian high of 158.066 to a session high at 158.127. Price then reversed 40 pips to the NY low at 157.711, a false break of the Asian range top. Since then it has compressed between 157.71 and the 158.01 lower high, with highs stepping down and price sitting just under both EMAs near 157.86.
Support: 157.711, 157.602
Resistance: 158.011, 158.127, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.011 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence and re-exposes the 158.127 session high
Failure to hold the 157.711 ny low opens the asian low at 157.602
Fed high at 158.346 sits just below the 158.50 intervention-warning zone
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London close may thin ranges further inside 157.71–158.01
15:32 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs after NY drop · RSI 36 · price 157.785
Failed break of Asian high, lower highs below 158.01.
London lifted the pair through the Asian high to a 158.13 session high. That move was rejected early in the NY session, with a 41-pip drop to the 157.71 NY low after the mixed US data round, where the income and spending misses offset the GDP beat. The rebound stalled at 158.01, and NY has since printed a lower high at 157.91, leaving price under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.711, 157.602
Resistance: 157.907, 158.011, 158.127
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.71 NY low opens the 157.60 Asian low, the floor of the 24h range
Recovery above the 158.01 rebound high negates the lower-high sequence and the false break read
Inability to clear the 157.91 lower high keeps NY pressing the lows into the London close
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Sideways, soft below both EMAs · RSI 41 · price 157.822
NY range 157.71–158.13, lower high at 158.01.
The US GDP/PCE batch lifted USD/JPY to a 158.13 session high, a false break of the London high, before the NY open drop to the 157.71 NY low. Mid-NY, price is chopping near the 61.8% retracement of the asian low–session high leg (157.80) under a lower high at 158.01, with RSI(14) near 41. The post-Fed spike at the 158.35 fed high caps the window.
Support: 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 158.01, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.71 ny low exposes the 157.60 asian low
Close above the 158.01 lower high reopens the 158.13 session high and the 158.35 fed high
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, NY lower highs inside 157.71–158.01.
London's grind from the 157.60 Asian low pushed briefly above the Asian high to a 158.13 session high. That move was rejected at the NY open after mixed US data, where the GDP beat was offset by a spending miss, sending the pair to a 157.71 NY low. Price now sits at 157.89, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Asia-London leg, with the NY high at 158.01 capping a lower-high sequence. RSI(14) near 46 is neutral and ATR(14) is about 12 pips.
Support: 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 158.01, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.01 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.13 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.71 NY low exposes the 157.60 Asian low
Tokyo CPI (23:30 UTC) and the BoJ decision (~03:00 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
Reclaiming 158.13 brings the 158.35 FOMC high into view, near reported intervention-rhetoric territory
Rotating 157.60–158.13 below the post-FOMC high; lower high at 158.01.
The higher lows off the 157.60 Asian low broke at the NY open after the 158.13 session high was rejected. The 34-pip drop to the 157.71 NY low came as mixed US data took heat off the dollar. Price is back near the 50% fib at 157.86, below EMA20/50, with the 158.01 lower high capping the bounce.
Support: 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 158.01, 158.13
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.71 ny low exposes the 157.60 asian low and the 78.6% fib
M15 close above the 158.01 lower high reopens the 158.13 session high
Tokyo CPI (23:30 UTC) and BoJ decision (~03:00 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
London higher-low chain broken in first hour of NY; mid-range bounce.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.60 Asian low through London to a 158.13 session high on firm US GDP and claims. A 40-pip drop in the first hour of NY broke the higher-low line and tagged the 157.71 NY low, close to the 79% fib of that move. Price now sits mid-range near 157.89, just under the 157.93 bounce high and EMA20, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 157.93, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
Failure to clear the 157.93 bounce high keeps a lower-high in place after the NY drop
M15 close back above the 158.13 session high restores the higher-low structure, with the 158.35 FOMC high next
Break of the 157.71 NY low exposes the 157.60 Asian low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, back inside 157.60–158.13.
London ground higher from the 157.60 Asian low and cleared the 158.07 Asian high to a 158.13 session high. That break failed at the NY open, with price dropping to a 157.71 NY low as mixed US data (GDP beat, softer income and spending) cooled USD demand. The NY low sits near the 78.6% fib of the Asian-low-to-session-high leg, and price at 157.89 is back under the 158.00 round number, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 158.00, 158.07, 158.13
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 158.07 Asian high and the 158.13 session high would negate the false-break read
Failure to hold the 157.71 NY low (78.6% fib) exposes the 157.60 Asian low
158.00 round number as the first cap on any NY recovery
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 GMT and the BoJ decision around 03:00 GMT could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Intraday range, pressure back to the downside · RSI 38 · price 157.82
False break above Asian high, failed at 158.13, price back mid-range.
Asia set a 157.60 low after the post-Fed slide. London-NY climbed to a 158.13 session high above the 158.07 Asian high, but the push failed in the first hour of NY: one bar dropped 34 pips to a 157.71 NY low, even though US data was mixed-to-firm. Price is back under the 158.00 round number, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 38. It sits just above the 157.77 London low.
Support: 157.77, 157.71, 157.60
Resistance: 158.00, 158.07, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.07 Asian high would negate the false-break read and reopen the session high at 158.13
Failure to hold the 157.71 NY low exposes the 157.60 Asian low, the window's floor
Lagarde press conference today can move USD/JPY through the EUR/JPY cross
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 GMT and the BoJ decision around 03:00 GMT can materially shift this read during Asia
Higher-low chain from Asia low broken; 157.60–158.35 range intact.
Early NY whipsawed after the US data: a pop to a 158.127 NY high briefly cleared the London highs, then a 40-pip bar reversed to 157.711 and cut through the rising Asia-low trendline. Price is holding near the 61.8% retrace of the 157.602–158.127 leg, RSI(14) ~39 and below both EMAs.
Support: 157.711, 157.602
Resistance: 158.127, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.711 NY low exposes the 157.602 Asia low and confirms a lower low
Reclaim of the 158.127 NY high revives the rising structure and puts the 158.346 post-Fed high back in view
ECB/Lagarde today, then Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC and BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC, could reset the range
13:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, stalling at resistance · RSI 57 · price 158.02
Higher-low chain since 157.60, capped at the Asian high / 61.8% fib.
A rising trendline of higher lows from the 157.60 Asian low has lifted USDJPY back to the 158.07 Asian high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the post-FOMC drop. After the firm GDP and claims data, the first hour of NY ran to a 158.13 NY high and was rejected back to 158.02, with the 157.89 data low sitting on the trendline and RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 157.89, 157.77, 157.60
Resistance: 158.07, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.13 NY high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path to the 158.35 FOMC high
Break of the rising trendline and the 157.89 data low ends the higher-low sequence, with the 157.77 London low next
Loss of the 157.77 London low reopens the 157.60 Asian low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 58 · price 158.042
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; Asian range high taken out in NY, price pinned under the session high.
Higher lows from the 157.602 Asian low carried the pair through the Asian range high into the London-NY transition. The PCE release bar wicked to 157.894, near the 38.2% fib, and was rejected. Price is holding just under the 158.101 session high with RSI(14) near 58, not stretched, while the PCE/GDP actuals are not yet in the feed.
Support: 157.894, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 158.101, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.101 session high opens the 158.346 fomc high, the spike top from Warsh's press conference
Loss of the 157.894 pce low and the higher-low trendline breaks the HL chain, exposing the 157.766 london low
Break below the 157.602 asian low reverses the intraday structure
ECB today, then Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ on Fri at 03:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 61 · price 158.054
Higher lows from 157.60 Asian low; repeated tests of 158.07 cap.
A higher-low chain off the 157.60 Asian low has lifted price back to the 158.07 Asian high, the 61.8% fib of the post-FOMC drop, now tested three times without a close through. The 12:30 GMT US PCE/GDP spike tagged the rising trendline at 157.89 (pce low) and was fully retraced in the first hour of NY.
Support: 157.89, 157.60
Resistance: 158.07, 158.25, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.07 asian high clears the fib cap and opens the 158.25 pre-fomc shelf, then the 158.35 fomc high
Break below the rising trendline and 157.89 pce low ends the higher-low sequence
157.60 asian low is the floor of the 24h range
PCE/GDP actuals still filtering through; ECB press conference today, Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and BoJ Fri 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalling at release · RSI 53 · price 157.957
London higher-low chain, trendline pierced on PCE bar.
From the 157.602 Asia low, London built higher lows off the 157.766 london low and topped at a 158.076 session high just before the 12:30 GMT PCE/GDP release. The release bar whipsawed about 17 pips, rejected near the session high and dipped through the London trendline to 157.894, the 38.2% fib. Price is back near 157.96, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 157.894, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 158.076, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.894 pce low breaks the London higher-low chain and exposes the 50% fib near 157.84, then the london low at 157.766
M15 close above the 158.076 session high reopens the post-FOMC high at 158.346
PCE/GDP actuals are still being priced into the NY open; Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 56 · price 157.99
HH/HL chain off 157.60 Asian low; London higher lows intact.
The recovery from the 157.60 Asian low that followed the post-Fed drop carried through London as a higher-low chain. The session high at 158.08 just cleared the Asian high before a modest rejection, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~56. The current bar is the 12:30 UTC US GDP/core PCE release.
Support: 157.92, 157.77, 157.60
Resistance: 158.08, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 higher low breaks the London trendline; the 157.77 london low is next
Close above the 158.08 session high exposes the 158.35 fed high set on yesterday's decision bar
US GDP/core PCE print is landing on the current bar and could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC Fri are the next risk events
12:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 66 · price 158.045
HL chain from 157.60 pressing session high at 61.8% retrace.
London has extended the recovery from the 157.60 asian low in a higher-low chain (157.77, 157.92). Price is now testing the 158.076 session high at the 61.8% retrace of the post-Fed drop from 158.35. US core PCE/GDP lands at 12:30 UTC, minutes away.
Support: 157.918, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 158.076, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.076 session high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 158.346 fed high
Loss of the 157.918 higher low and the London trendline breaks the HL chain, exposing the 157.766 london low
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 7 pips likely to expand sharply
A move back below 157.602 asian low would put the post-Fed low back in play
A higher-low sequence since the 157.60 asian low, set after the post-Fed drop from the 158.35 fed high, has lifted price back to the 158.06 asian high, which also marks the 61.8% retracement of that drop. Through London, the pair has held a rising trendline from the 157.77 london low. Price is pressing that ceiling with US GDP and core PCE about 30 minutes out.
Support: 157.92, 157.77, 157.60
Resistance: 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
US GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger-reaction risk
An M15 close above the 158.06 asian high and 61.8% retrace opens the path to the 158.35 fed high
A break of the 157.92 swing low and the london trendline ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.77 london low
The 157.60 asian low is the floor of the post-Fed move; Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC sits beyond this window
London has built a higher-low chain off the 157.60 Asia low, with the latest higher low at 157.92. Price is compressing just under the 158.05 session high and the 158.07 Asian high, still below the 158.35 fed high set before Warsh's press conference knocked the pair 45 pips lower. RSI(14) ~61 and ATR ~7 pips, with US GDP/core PCE due in under an hour.
Support: 157.92, 157.77, 157.60
Resistance: 158.05, 158.35
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.05 session high opens the path to the 158.35 fed high
Break of the 157.92 higher low and the trendline ends the London higher-low chain; the 157.77 london low is next
Loss of the 157.60 asia low would retrace the full overnight recovery
11:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 62 · price 157.972
Higher lows from 157.60, still inside Asian range.
A higher-low chain from the 157.60 Asian low carried the pair to 158.05 in the London session, where it stalled just under the 158.07 Asian high and stayed below the 158.35 post-Fed high. The pullback low at 157.92 sits above the rising higher-low trendline, with the 157.81 swing low beneath. RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR is about 7 pips ahead of the US data.
Support: 157.92, 157.81, 157.60
Resistance: 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read.
An M15 close above the 158.07 Asian high breaks the Asian range top and opens the path to the 158.35 Fed high.
A loss of the 157.92 pullback low turns attention to the higher-low trendline.
Failure to hold the 157.81 swing low, near 61.8% of the 157.60–158.05 leg, breaks the higher-low chain.
A move back to the 157.60 Asian low would reopen the overnight range floor.
Inside 157.60–158.07 Asian range; London HL chain capped under range top.
USD/JPY is holding inside the 157.60–158.07 Asian range after the post-Fed drop from the 158.35 Fed high. London built higher lows along a rising trendline from the 157.77 London low, but two tests of 158.05 stalled just under the Asian high and price is easing to 157.95 ahead of US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 157.914, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
Loss of the 157.91 swing low and the London trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.77 London low
M15 close above the 158.07 Asian high opens the path to the 158.35 Fed high
Break below the 157.60 Asian low would mark a range break of the 24h structure
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB decision also lands today
11:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, RSI near 70 · RSI 70 · price 158.009
Higher lows since London open, pressing the Asian high inside the post-Fed 157.60–158.35 range.
The post-Fed spike to the 158.35 fed high reversed into a 157.60 asian low, and London has since built a higher-low chain from the 157.77 london low, with RSI(14) near 70. Price is now pressing the 158.07 asian high, and the latest higher low sits at 157.94 ahead of US core PCE/GDP; the Asian low to London high leg is the retracement reference.
Support: 157.938, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 asian high opens the path to the 158.35 fed high
Break below the 157.94 higher low and the London higher-low line ends the London HH/HL chain
Loss of the 157.77 london low puts the 157.60 asian low back in play
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 67 · price 158.029
Higher lows off 157.60 Asian low; London HH/HL chain into 158.05.
London has stacked higher lows off the 157.60 Asian low and pushed back above 158.00. Price is now testing the 158.07 Asian high, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the post-FOMC drop from 158.35, with the 50% fib at 157.97 just below. RSI(14) is near 67 and ATR is about 8 pips, a compressed state ahead of US core PCE and GDP.
Support: 157.974, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 158.066, 158.249, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 Asian high opens the 158.25 pre-fed high, then the 158.35 FOMC high
Close back below the 50% fib at 157.97 breaks the London higher-low chain and exposes the 157.77 London low
Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read; loss of the 157.60 Asian low would flip structure to lower lows
10:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through London · RSI 63 · price 157.987
Upper half of Asian range, HL chain pressing 158.00 psych.
Mid-London, the pair has stepped higher lows from the 157.766 London low to a 157.938 higher low and is pressing the 158.00 psych. That level is the 50% retrace of the post-FOMC drop from the 158.346 FOMC high, which fell on Warsh's caution, to the 157.602 Asian low. The 158.066 Asian high sits on the 61.8%, and RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 157.938, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 158.00, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.066 Asian high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path toward the 158.346 FOMC high
A break below the 157.938 higher low and the London trendline ends the HL chain, with the 157.766 London low next
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; a soft core print risks a return to the 157.602 Asian low
Repeated rejection at 158.00 psych keeps price capped inside the Asian range
10:16 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher through London · RSI 61 · price 157.948
Higher lows inside the Asian range, pressing London high.
USD/JPY is still inside the 157.60–158.07 Asian range after the Fed press-conference drop from the 158.35 Fed high. London has built higher lows along the rising trendline from the Asian low and is now pressing the 157.97 London high, which sits on the 50% post-Fed fib. RSI(14) is near 61.
Support: 157.83, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 157.968, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.97 London high and 50% post-Fed fib opens the 158.07 Asian high
Break below the rising trendline near 157.83 and the 157.77 London low returns focus to the 157.60 Asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; the 158.35 Fed high is the next reference above the Asian range
ECB decision today adds USD cross-volatility into the NY session
Higher-low chain inside the Asian range, pressing the London session high.
Warsh's cautious presser knocked USDJPY off the 158.346 fed high last night. Since the 157.602 asian low, the pair has retraced most of that Asia drop on a rising trendline of higher lows. London is pressing its session high at 157.968, the 78.6% fib, with the 158.066 asian high next above and ranges compressing ahead of US data.
Support: 157.813, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 157.968, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.968 london high and 158.066 asian high would break the Asian range and reopen the 158.346 fed high
Break of the rising trendline and the 157.813 swing low ends the higher-low chain; the 157.766 london low is next below
Loss of the 157.602 asian low invalidates the recovery read
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; Tokyo CPI follows at 23:30 UTC, with the BoJ on Friday
Higher lows pressing a flat 157.97 cap inside the Asian range.
The FOMC spike to the 158.35 fomc high reversed into the 157.60 Asian low. A chain of higher lows has since lifted price to 157.94 in mid-London, where the 157.97 London high caps near the 50% retrace of that drop. The range is compressing ahead of the 12:30 UTC core PCE and GDP data, with RSI neutral near 58.
Support: 157.813, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 157.968, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.97 london high and 50% retrace opens the 158.07 asian high (61.8%)
A break of the rising trendline and the 157.81 higher low exposes the 157.77 london low
Losing the 157.60 asian low resumes the post-FOMC decline
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; the 158.35 fomc high is the next marker above
09:32 UTC
Sideways, higher lows building · RSI 57 · price 157.933
London compressing inside the Asian range, rising lows from the Asia low.
The Fed's hawkish hold sent USD/JPY to a 158.35 fomc high before the pair reversed under 157.90, and Asia extended the drop to a 157.60 asia low. Since then the pair has printed rising lows at 157.66, the 157.77 london low and a 157.81 higher low, holding inside the Asian range. Price is mid-London, pressing the 157.97 london high below the 158.07 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 157.813, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 157.968, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.97 london high puts the 158.07 asia high in play; acceptance above it reopens the 158.35 fomc high
A break of the 157.81 higher low and the 157.77 london low ends the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 157.60 asia low
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; Tokyo CPI follows at 23:30 UTC
09:17 UTC
Recovering off Asia low, compressing · RSI 56 · price 157.89
Higher lows inside the Asian range, capped under 158.00.
Early London is trading inside the Asian range (158.07 asia high / 157.60 asia low), with a higher-low trendline off 157.60 lifting price to the 61.8% retrace near 157.89. The 157.97 london high caps a tight 20-pip box below the 158.35 fed high set during the Fed presser, and the market is parked ahead of core PCE and GDP.
Support: 157.80, 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 157.968, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.97 london high and 158.07 asia high reopens the 158.35 fed high
Break of the rising trendline near 157.80 and the 157.77 london low exposes the 157.60 asia low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ early Friday are the next JPY-side risk
09:02 UTC
Sideways, recovering from Asian low · RSI 53 · price 157.878
London range 157.77–157.97 inside the Asian range, rising lows since 02:15 UTC.
The Fed's hawkish-tilted hold produced a spike to the 158.35 FOMC high and a reversal toward 157.83. Asia then swept down to the 157.60 Asian low before lows began stepping higher. London is holding a 157.77–157.97 range: the london high at 157.97 was rejected on the 08:45 bar, and price is sitting near the 61.8% retracement of the Asian drop.
Support: 157.77, 157.60
Resistance: 157.97, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.97 london high and the 158.07 asian high would break the Asian range and expose the 158.35 FOMC high
Failure to hold the 157.77 london low breaks the rising-lows line and reopens the 157.60 asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the Asian low, compressing under the London high.
The Fed-presser drop from the 158.35 Fed high gave way to a 157.60–158.07 Asian range. Price has climbed back to the 61.8% retrace of the Asian drop, with higher lows riding rising support. London is compressing between the 157.77 London low and the 157.94 London high, and RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 157.766, 157.602
Resistance: 157.941, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.941 London high puts the 158.066 Asian high in play
Loss of the 157.766 London low and rising support reopens the 157.602 Asian low
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asian low; London range 157.77–157.94 inside Asian range.
The Warsh press-conference spike to the 158.35 fomc high reversed to a 157.60 asian low. Higher lows at 157.66 and the 157.77 london low have since built a rising trendline. London is churning in a 17-pip band below the 157.94 london high, capped near the 38.2% retrace and still inside the Asian range (157.60–158.07).
Support: 157.766, 157.659, 157.602
Resistance: 157.941, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.94 london high opens the 158.07 asian high, near the 50% retrace
Failure to hold the 157.77 london low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 157.66 higher low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 158.35 fomc high back in view
A break below the 157.60 asian low would erase the post-FOMC recovery structure
Rising lows off 157.60, early London compressing inside Asian range.
The Warsh-driven drop from the 158.35 fed high bottomed at the 157.60 asia low, and rising lows have formed since, with a higher low at 157.66. Early London is compressing between the 157.77 london low and the 157.94 session high, capped near the 38.2% retrace of the post-Fed drop. RSI(14) is neutral at 54.
Support: 157.766, 157.659, 157.602
Resistance: 157.941, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.94 session high opens the 158.07 asia high, the 61.8% retrace of the post-Fed drop
Failure to hold the 157.77 london low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.66 higher low and 157.60 asia low
US GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read; Tokyo CPI and the BoJ follow overnight
08:02 UTC
Intraday lower highs since the FOMC spike · RSI 46 · price 157.774
Lower highs 158.07→157.94, compressing above the 157.60 Asian low.
London opens with USDJPY slipping through the 157.80 range floor after a rejection at the 157.94 lower high. That extends the lower-high chain from the post-FOMC 158.35 spike and the 158.07 Asian high, with price at the 50% retrace of the Asian-low rebound and the 157.66 higher low next below; RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 157.659, 157.602
Resistance: 157.80, 157.941, 158.066
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.66 higher low exposes the 157.60 Asian low
Reclaim of the 157.80 range floor and a close above the 157.94 lower high breaks the lower-high chain toward the 158.07 Asian high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI and BoJ decision overnight keep event risk elevated
07:47 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows off Asian low · RSI 65 · price 157.909
Higher lows from 157.60, pressing 157.80–157.94 range top.
Yesterday's grind to the 158.35 FOMC high reversed sharply during Warsh's presser, and Asia then ranged from 158.07 down to 157.60 before carving a higher low at 157.66. Late in the Asia session, ahead of the London open, price is testing the 157.94 range top above the 61.8% retrace of the Asian drop, with RSI(14) at 65 and the range floor at 157.80 holding.
Support: 157.80, 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.94, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
Close above 157.94 range top and the asian high at 158.07 reclaims the Asian range and exposes the 158.35 fomc high
Break of the 157.80 range floor and the 157.66 higher low puts the 157.60 asian low back in play
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Post-Fed pullback, now flat and compressing · RSI 57 · price 157.849
Tight 157.80–157.91 box inside the 157.60–158.07 Asian range.
USDJPY rejected the 158.35 fomc high after the hawkish-dissent Fed hold. Asia then capped at the 158.07 asian high and bottomed at the 157.60 asian low, with a 157.66 higher low since and rising lows on the Asia-session rebound. Early London is boxed between the 157.80 range low and 157.91 range top, around the 50–61.8% fib retracement of the Asian drop, with ATR(14) near 7.5 pips.
Support: 157.80, 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.91 range top clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 158.07 asian high back in play
Failure to hold 157.80 range low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.66 higher low, then the 157.60 asian low
US core PCE, Q3 GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read; a hot print is the path back toward the 158.35 fomc high
Tokyo CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and Friday's BoJ decision sit beyond this window but keep two-way risk elevated
Higher lows under a flat 157.91 cap, mid-Asian range.
The Fed-hold spike to the 158.35 fed high reversed during Warsh's presser, and Asia faded the 158.07 Asia high to a 157.60 Asia low. Price has since built higher lows at the 157.66 swing low and the 157.80 higher low, while a session cap at 157.91 near the 61.8% retrace holds into London.
Support: 157.80, 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 session cap opens the 158.07 Asia high
Loss of the 157.80 higher low and rising line puts the 157.66 swing low and 157.60 Asia low back in play
US core PCE / Q3 GDP / claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and Friday's BoJ keep the range edges in focus
07:02 UTC
Sideways, mild recovery off Asian low · RSI 57 · price 157.842
Higher lows into a tight 157.80–157.91 coil inside the Asian range.
London open finds USD/JPY coiling between the 157.80 range low and the 157.91 range cap, inside the 157.60–158.07 Asian range. Higher lows at the 157.60 Asian low, the 157.66 higher low and 157.80 are pressing into a cap that sits at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian drop. The pair remains well below the 158.35 Fed high, which was rejected during Warsh's press conference.
Support: 157.795, 157.659, 157.602
Resistance: 157.909, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.91 range cap clears the Asian fib 61.8% and puts the 158.07 Asian high in focus
A break below the 157.80 range low and the higher-lows line reopens the 157.66 higher low and the 157.60 Asian low
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC could break the coil in either direction; a push through 158.07 brings the 158.35 Fed high into view
06:47 UTC
Sideways, recovering from Asian low · RSI 55 · price 157.822
Higher low at 157.659, compressing 157.80–157.91 under range top.
The Fed/Warsh spike to the 158.346 fed high was sold overnight. Asia then faded from the 158.066 Asian high to the 157.602 Asian low before printing a higher low at 157.659. Into London open price is boxed between the 157.805 range low and a 157.909 range top that has capped three tests, near the 61.8% of the Asian drop, with RSI(14) neutral and price flat around EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 157.805, 157.659, 157.602
Resistance: 157.909, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.909 range top opens the 158.066 Asian high
Failure to hold the 157.805 range low exposes the 157.659 higher low and the 157.602 Asian low
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 158.346 fed high is the upside extreme of the window
06:32 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off Asia low · RSI 55 · price 157.821
Higher low at 157.66, capped at 157.91 twin highs.
Late Asia, about 30 minutes before London open. Price sits inside the 157.60–158.07 Asian range after the post-Fed whipsaw from the 158.35 fed high. The 157.60 asian low held and printed a higher low at 157.66, but twin highs at 157.91, near the 61.8% of the asian drop fib, are capping, leaving a tight 157.81–157.91 micro range with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 157.81, 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.91 twin highs opens the 158.07 asian high, with the 158.35 fed high beyond
Loss of the 157.81 micro floor puts the 157.66 higher low and the higher low trendline back in focus
Close below the 157.60 asian low confirms a lower low and breaks the rebound structure
London open is the first test of the 157.81–157.91 micro range
US Core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asian low · RSI 59 · price 157.878
Higher-low chain inside the 157.60–158.07 Asian range, pre-London.
Late Asia session has built higher lows from the 157.60 Asian low through the 157.66 prior low and 157.81. Price is pressing the 157.91 swing high near the 61.8% retrace of the 158.07–157.60 drop, still inside the Asian range after the post-Fed whipsaw off the 158.35 fed spike, with USD steadying ahead of PCE.
Support: 157.81, 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 swing high and 61.8% retrace opens the 158.07 asian high
Loss of the 157.81 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 157.66 prior low
A break below the 157.60 asian low invalidates the recovery read
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could retest the 158.35 fed spike or the range floor
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision Friday could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range 157.60–158.07; higher low at 157.66, lower high at 157.91.
Late Asia, ahead of London open. USD/JPY is holding inside the 157.60–158.07 Asian range after the slide from the 158.35 Fed high during Warsh's presser. The rebound off the Asian low printed a higher low at 157.66 but met rejection at the 157.91 swing high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 swing high reopens the 158.07 Asian high
Loss of the 157.66 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.60 Asian low
The 158.35 Fed high caps the post-decision structure; a break above it would reverse the Fed-day slide
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 157.659 off the 157.602 Asian low; capped at 157.909 swing high, below the 158.066 Asian high.
Late Asia session. USD/JPY is rebuilding from the 157.602 Asian low with a higher low at 157.659 and a stall at the 157.909 swing high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian range drop. The post-Fed dollar recovery is underpinning the bounce, and price sits mid-range below the 158.066 Asian high.
Support: 157.659, 157.602
Resistance: 157.909, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.909 swing high and the 61.8% fib extends the higher-low sequence toward the 158.066 Asian high
Close above 158.066 Asian high reopens the 158.346 FOMC high from the presser spike
Break below the 157.659 higher low and its rising trendline exposes the 157.602 Asian low
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC Oct 30 are the next JPY-side risks
Inside Asian range 157.60–158.07; higher low at 157.66, rebound capped near 61.8% fib.
Warsh's presser after the Fed's hawkish-split hold reversed the spike to the 158.35 fed high. The Tokyo-open pop to the 158.07 asia high then faded to a 157.60 asia low. Late Asia shows a higher low at 157.66, with the rebound stalling at the 61.8% fib near 157.89 and RSI(14) neutral at ~57.
Support: 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.89, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.89 61.8% fib opens a retest of the 158.07 asia high, with the 158.35 fed high beyond
Break below the 157.66 higher low voids the rebound and exposes the 157.60 asia low
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range edges
US Core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~7h) could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Post-Fed drift lower, stabilising late Asia · RSI 49 · price 157.811
Inside Asian range 157.60–158.07, small higher low at 157.66.
The 158.35 Fed high gave way to a 47-pip drop during Warsh's press conference, and Asia session has built a 157.60–158.07 range with the asian low holding. A 157.66 higher low has lifted price into the 50% fib of the asian drop at 157.83, where the late-Asia bounce is stalling, RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.83, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 157.83 opens the asian high at 158.07, then the 158.35 fed high
Loss of the 157.66 higher low puts the 157.60 asian low back in play; a break there extends the post-Fed lower-high sequence
London open in ~2h typically decides which side of the Asian range gives first
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read; BoJ decision Fri ~03:00 UTC
Lower highs since 158.07 Asian high; higher low at 157.66 after 157.60 sweep.
Late Asia session. USDJPY faded from the 158.07 Asian high to a 157.60 Asian low, sweeping yesterday's 157.65 London low, and now sits under the 157.80 minor high at the 38.2% fib of that drop with RSI(14) neutral near 47. The lower-high trendline from the Asian high is intact since the post-Fed reversal off 158.35, but a higher low at 157.66 has formed and price is pinned at EMA20.
Support: 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.80, 158.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 minor high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 158.07 Asian high
Failure to hold the 157.66 higher low exposes the 157.60 Asian low; a close below extends the lower-low sequence
US Q3 GDP and Core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~8h) could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI and the BoJ decision later in the week add JPY event risk
Lower highs since Fed spike; higher swing low inside Asian range.
The Fed-hold drop from the 158.35 fed high set the tone. Asia session rejected the 158.07 asian high and slid to the 157.60 asian low, then printed a higher swing low at 157.66. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing just under the 157.80 lower high and the descending lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) sits near 42 and ATR(14) is about 9 pips.
Support: 157.66, 157.60
Resistance: 157.80, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 lower high, also the 38.2% of the Asian drop fib, breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 158.07 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.66 swing low exposes the 157.60 asian low; a break there extends the post-Fed lower-low sequence
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
158.35 fed high caps the 24h range; only a recovery through 158.07 brings it into view
Lower highs off 158.07 Asia high, retesting 157.60 Asia low.
The post-Fed reversal from the 158.35 Fed high carried into Asia. Supply capped the 158.07 Asia high at 00:15 UTC and price slid to 157.60, briefly undercutting the prior London low near 157.65. A bounce stalled at the 157.80 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib, and late in the Tokyo session price is back retesting the Asia low, below both EMAs.
Support: 157.602, 157.55
Resistance: 157.80, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.60 Asia low exposes the 157.55 range support
A recovery above the 157.80 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.07 Asia high
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 158.35 Fed high is the post-decision ceiling
Lower highs and lows since post-Fed peak; tight consolidation mid-Asian range.
The post-Fed spike to 158.35 reversed, and the Asia session faded from its 158.07 Asia high to a 157.60 Asia low, despite the digest describing USD firmness. The bounce stalled at the 157.80 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, leaving price compressing just above yesterday's 157.65 London low in late Asia, with lower highs intact.
Support: 157.65, 157.60
Resistance: 157.80, 158.07
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.60 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 157.80 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 158.07 Asia high would put price back above the Asian range
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain, small base above 157.60.
Lower highs have stacked up since the post-Fed press-conference rejection at the 158.346 fed high. In the Asia session, a pop to the 158.066 asian high faded to a fresh window low at the 157.602 asian low. Price is now basing under the 157.80 bounce high, near the 38.2% retrace of the asian drop, with RSI(14) around 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 157.652, 157.602
Resistance: 157.80, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 bounce high and the lower highs trendline near 157.90 would break the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 157.652 london low and the 157.602 asian low extends the lower-low chain
A reclaim of the 158.066 asian high reopens the 158.346 fed high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read; Tokyo CPI and the BoJ decision follow within ~24h
03:32 UTC
Downtrend since Fed spike, compressing late Asia · RSI 40 · price 157.735
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce stalled at 38.2% retrace.
Post-Fed lower highs from the 158.35 fed high to the 158.07 asian high, with the Tokyo pop sold into a 157.60 session low just under yesterday's 157.65 london low. The bounce met rejection at the 157.80 swing high near the 38.2% retrace, and price is now compressing below EMA20 late in the Asia session; RSI(14) ~40, ATR ~10 pips.
Support: 157.60, 157.65
Resistance: 157.80, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 swing high and 38.2% retrace opens a retest of the 158.07 asian high
Break of the lower-highs trendline off the fed high (~157.91) would neutralise the post-Fed downtrend read
Failure to hold the 157.60 session low and 157.65 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward 157.50
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 158.35 FOMC spike; Asian range 157.60–158.07 still developing.
Since the 158.35 fomc high, the pair has printed lower highs after the hawkish-split Fed hold. Asia session slipped through the london low at 157.65 to an asian low of 157.60, and the bounce has stalled at the 157.80 bounce high near the 38.2% asian leg fib. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 45. ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 157.652, 157.602
Resistance: 157.80, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 bounce high and the lower-high line (~157.92) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.60 asian low extends the lower-low chain beyond the london low
Recovery through the 158.07 asian high reopens the 158.35 fomc high
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) and the BoJ run-up could materially shift this read
Asia high at 158.07 faded into a dip below the London low; price is now retracing to the 38.2% level.
The Fed press conference spike to the 158.35 Fed high reversed hard into the 157.85 area, and the Asia session high at 158.07 has since printed a series of lower highs. Price dipped under yesterday's 157.65 London low to a 157.60 session low before rebounding to the 38.2% retracement near 157.78, with the 157.83–157.87 post-Fed low zone overhead.
Support: 157.65, 157.60
Resistance: 157.87, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.87 post-fed low (61.8% at 157.89) undoes the Asia lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.07 session high
Failure to hold 157.65 (london low) and the 157.60 session low extends the lower-low chain
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read; Tokyo CPI and the BoJ decision follow within ~24h
02:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 45 · price 157.723
LH/LL chain from 158.07 Asia high; London low broken, minor bounce.
The Fed press-conference spike to 158.35 reversed, and the Tokyo-open pop to the 158.07 Asia high met rejection. Lower highs since then broke yesterday's London low at 157.65 and printed a 157.60 session low. The mid-Asia bounce to 157.72 sits below EMA20 and the descending Asia lower-high line, with the 38.2 fib at 157.78 the first cap.
Support: 157.65, 157.60
Resistance: 157.78, 157.89, 158.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.89 (61.8 fib) breaks the Asia lower-high chain and reopens the 158.07 Asia high
Failure to hold 157.60 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 157.50
Back below 157.65 london low keeps the break of yesterday's range intact
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; London open is the nearer test of the session range
02:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 41 · price 157.677
Lower-high chain off 158.07, new 24h low below yesterday's London low.
The early Asia session push to the 158.07 asia high was rejected. A lower-high sequence then took USD/JPY through yesterday's London low (157.65) to a 157.60 asia low, unwinding the post-Fed rebound despite the hawkish-dissent hold. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41, not stretched.
Support: 157.60, 157.50
Resistance: 157.88, 158.07
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.60 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward 157.50 psych
Reclaim of the 157.88 lower high (61.8% of the Asia downswing) breaks the intraday down-structure
Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC ahead of the BoJ could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; probing below London low.
The 158.346 spike around the Fed press conference faded. The pair has since carved lower highs, and Tokyo trade was rejected at the 158.066 Asia high before slipping to a 157.606 session low under the 157.652 London low. Closes are holding just above the London low and capped by the 157.70 prior low, with RSI(14) near 41 and not stretched.
Support: 157.652, 157.606, 157.50
Resistance: 157.698, 157.856, 158.066
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.606 session low confirms the lower-low and exposes the 157.50 psych level
Closes holding above the 157.652 London low leave the 157.606 print as a failed probe
Recovery above the 157.856 lower high (near the 50–61.8% of the Asia drop) breaks the lower-highs chain, with 158.066 Asia high next
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Short-term downtrend since the FOMC spike · RSI 44 · price 157.749
Lower highs from 158.35 with lows grinding toward 157.65–157.68.
The spike to the 158.35 FOMC high during Warsh's press conference reversed sharply, and price has printed lower highs near 158.06 since. Early in the Asia session, supply capped price at the 158.07 Asian high and the pair slipped to a fresh session low at 157.68, just above yesterday's 157.65 London low. RSI(14) is in the mid-40s with no extreme reading.
Support: 157.677, 157.652, 157.50
Resistance: 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
A break below the 157.65 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.50 half figure
An M15 close above the 158.07 Asian high breaks the post-FOMC lower-high chain
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10.5h), then Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
The BoJ decision at ~03:00 UTC Oct 30 is a further USD/JPY risk
Lower high at 158.07 under the 158.35 FOMC high, base 157.70–157.80.
Early Asia session pop to 158.07 was rejected inside the 50–61.8% retracement of the post-FOMC drop from the 158.35 FOMC high. That drop followed Warsh's less-hawkish-than-feared presser, and price is now back on the 157.80 Asian low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and the 157.70 swing low as the base.
Support: 157.80, 157.70, 157.65
Resistance: 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.70 swing low extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence toward the 157.65 London low
M15 close above the 158.07 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line from the 158.35 FOMC high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Post-FOMC range, lower highs since Tokyo open · RSI 49 · price 157.827
Asia spike to 158.066 faded, price back in the 157.70–158.07 band.
Warsh's presser knocked USDJPY off the 158.346 FOMC high, leaving a 157.70–158.07 band. The Tokyo-open spike to the 158.066 session high has faded on lower highs (157.996, 157.916), and price is back at the 157.80 swing low, near the 61.8% of the Asian leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 157.797, 157.698, 157.652
Resistance: 157.996, 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.797 swing low exposes the 157.698 asian low and the 157.652 prior low
Reclaiming the 157.996 lower high puts the 158.066 session high back in play; the 158.346 fomc high caps the range
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h), then Tokyo CPI and the BoJ decision, could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Post-Fed pullback, now ranging · RSI 54 · price 157.901
Lower highs from the Fed high; Asian range 157.70–158.07, price mid-range.
The spike to the 158.35 Fed high was rejected during Warsh's presser as USD softened broadly. Price slid to the 157.70 Asian low before a mid-Asia pop to 158.07, the latest in a run of lower highs. It has since pulled back to 157.87 and sits mid-range above EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 157.867, 157.698, 157.652
Resistance: 158.066, 158.346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 Asian high breaks the lower-high trendline from the Fed high
Failure to hold the 157.87 pullback low puts the 157.70 Asian low and 157.65 London low back in play
US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC, then Tokyo CPI and the Fri BoJ decision, could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Post-Fed pullback, now ranging · RSI 55 · price 157.943
Lower high at 158.07 under Fed high, Asian range 157.70–158.07.
The Fed-day spike to the 158.35 fed high reversed hard during the presser as USD slipped on a less-hawkish-than-feared read. The 00:00 UTC Asian push stalled at 158.07 (a 50–61.8% retracement of the post-Fed drop) and was rejected. Price now sits mid-range above the 157.87 hl pivot, with the 157.70 asian low holding above the 157.65 london low.
Support: 157.87, 157.70, 157.65
Resistance: 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 asian high breaks the lower highs line off the fed high
Loss of the 157.87 hl pivot returns price to the lower half of the Asian range
Failure at the 157.70 asian low exposes the 157.65 london low
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Range 157.70–158.07, flat highs, lows stepping lower.
The 158.35 Fed high from the presser reversed into a 157.70–158.07 range. The Tokyo-open push was rejected at the 158.06 post-Fed cap, and price is back at the 38.2% fib of the bounce from the 157.70 session low. Highs are flat while lows keep slipping toward the 157.65 London low.
Support: 157.70, 157.65
Resistance: 158.06, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.06 post-Fed cap breaks the range top and reopens the 158.35 Fed high
Break of the 157.70 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.65 London low
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Sharp Asia bounce, pressing session high · RSI 68 · price 158.055
Post-Fed slide from 158.35 halted at 157.70; 158.00 reclaimed in early Asia.
Early Asia session bounced roughly 37 pips off the 157.70 Asia low. That reclaimed the 158.00 round number and retraced much of the slide from the 158.35 Fed high, which followed Warsh's less-hawkish-than-feared press conference. RSI(14) near 68, with price stalling just under the 158.07 session high.
Support: 158.00, 157.70, 157.65
Resistance: 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
Break above the 158.07 session high exposes the 158.35 Fed high
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number turns the breakout into a false break, with the fib 38.2% near 157.93 next
Loss of the 157.70 Asia low reopens the 157.65 London low
US core PCE and GDP in ~12h could materially shift this read
Post-Fed lower-high sequence broken; pressing 158.06 range top.
Rejection at the 158.35 Fed high during Warsh's presser was followed by a grind to a 157.70 session low into the rollover, holding above the 157.65 London low. Early Asia added a two-bar, 32-pip push off 157.70 that broke the post-Fed trendline and reclaimed 158.00. Price now sits at the 50% retrace just under the 158.06 post-Fed high; RSI(14) at 59.
Support: 157.83, 157.70, 157.65
Resistance: 158.06, 158.24, 158.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.06 post-Fed high opens the 158.24 pre-Fed shelf, with the 61.8% fib at 158.10 in between
Slip back below the 157.83 impulse base returns price to the post-Fed range toward the 157.70 session low
Break of 157.65 London low would print a fresh lower low on the session
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read