Higher lows since Oct 22-23 drop; tight 157.60-158.35 band under lower highs.
USD/JPY has retraced most of the Oct 22-23 slide to the 156.08 window low, carried by a firm dollar after the Q3 GDP beat. The rebound has since stalled into a 157.60 swing low to 158.35 recent high band. That band sits beneath a lower-highs line running from the 158.95 window high through the 158.60 prior high. Price is hugging flat EMA20/EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 30 pips from 50+ during the drop, a coiled setup heading into Tokyo CPI and the BoJ.
Support: 157.60, 157.48, 156.08
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI (23:30 UTC) and BoJ decision/Outlook Report (~03:00 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read; December-hike guidance is the swing factor
H4 close above the 158.35 recent high and the lower-highs line opens the 158.60 prior high, where intervention rhetoric has capped
Failure to hold the 157.60 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 157.48
Fri ECI and Fed's Daly/Musalem could reprice December hike odds and move the dollar leg
Higher lows from 156.08, lower highs from 158.95; contracting.
The rebound from the 156.08 Oct 22 low has printed a week of higher lows. Supply capping near the 158.35 recent high keeps price inside a contracting structure, bounded by rising support near 157.76 and the falling line from the 158.95 window high. ATR(14) has compressed to about 32 pips, against 50-90 pip bars during the Oct 22-23 selloff, with price holding just above both EMAs. A firm USD after Thursday's growth beat is being offset by MoF intervention warnings near the 158.60 range top.
Support: 157.60, 157.00, 156.08
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI (23:30 UTC) and the BoJ decision (~03:00 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read; a hawkish signal puts the 157.60 swing low and the 157.00 range floor in focus
An H4 close above the 158.35 recent high breaks the falling resistance line and opens the 158.60 range top, where intervention rhetoric has capped advances; the 158.95 window high sits beyond
A close below the 157.60 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low sequence; the 38.2% recovery fib sits near 157.48
A soft ECI print (Fri 12:30 UTC) or cautious Fedspeak would put a retest of the 156.08 Oct 22 low back on the map if 157.00 gives way
13:02 UTC
Recovering within range, higher lows since Oct 21 low · RSI 58 · price 158.031
Higher lows off 156.08, capped below 158.35 inside 157.00-158.60 range.
The Oct 21-23 push below the 157.00 range floor to the oct low at 156.08 failed. It came on yen strength from risk-off and MoF warnings, and was fully retraced as sentiment improved, leaving a false break. Since then the pair has printed a sequence of rising lows, the latest a swing low at 157.60, but has been capped just under the recent high at 158.35 after the hawkish Fed hold. ATR(14) has compressed to about 30 pips from the expansion during the sell-off, and price holds above both EMAs, pressing back toward the upper half of the 157.00-158.60 band.
Support: 157.60, 157.00, 156.08
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.35 recent high opens the 158.60 range top, with the 158.95 window high beyond
Failure to hold the 157.60 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 157.00 range floor
Fresh US PCE/GDP actuals, then Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision with Ueda's December guidance, could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 156.08 oct low would turn the false break into a range break
USD/JPY has recovered most of the Oct 22-23 drop from the 156.08 Oct low, helped by firmer US yields and oil after the hawkish-tilted Fed hold, printing higher lows along a rising lows line. The recovery was rejected at the 158.35 swing high, just below the 158.60 range top, and the lower highs line from the 158.95 Oct high continues to cap the pair. Price now sits on converging EMA20/EMA50 near the 23.6% level of the recovery fib, with ATR(14) contracting to ~31 pips. The 157.60 swing low sits above the 157.00 range floor.
Support: 157.60, 157.00
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60, 158.946
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
BoJ decision and Tokyo CPI on Friday; December guidance is the swing factor for the range
H4 close below the 157.60 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 157.00 range floor
Close above the 158.35 swing high puts the 158.60 range top and lower highs line in play
Break of 157.00 range floor reopens the 156.08 Oct low
Range low false break, then higher lows back inside.
USDJPY held a 157.50–158.95 range for most of the window. The Oct 22-23 yen spike on intervention fears broke it to the 156.08 october low, then a V-shaped recovery carried price back inside. The rebound built higher lows along a rising trendline from that low, but it met rejection at the 158.35 swing high after the hawkish-leaning Fed hold, and price is back near 157.87. ATR has compressed from the selloff spike, and EMA20 and EMA50 are flat and converged near 157.70, which fits a range rather than a trend.
Support: 157.65, 157.21, 156.08
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.60 range top reopens the 158.95 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.65 swing low exposes the 50% fib and rising trendline near 157.20
A break below the rising trendline and 50% fib would put the 156.08 october low back in play
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision plus Ueda presser Fri ~03:00 UTC are the next range catalysts