21:04 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since July · RSI 48 · price 157.865
Lower highs from 163.99; 156.08–159.00 range with higher lows since Sep.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs from the 163.99 July high through the 160.39 Sep high and the 159.00 range top, while higher lows since the 152.89 Sep low have compressed price into a 156.08–159.00 range for roughly five weeks. The Oct 22–23 drop to the range low held near the 50% retracement of the Sep rally, and this week has recovered most of it on firm US data (Q3 GDP 3.4%). Price sits just above EMA20 (~157.80) and just below a flat EMA50 near 158.00, with RSI at 48 confirming the lack of trend.
Support: 156.08, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.00, 159.00, 160.39
What it said to watch
- BoJ decision and Tokyo CPI overnight: explicit December-hike guidance or a surprise hike could push price back toward the 156.08 range low
- Daily close above 159.00 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 160.39 Sep high
- Daily close below 156.08 range low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 155.23 Aug low, then the 152.89 Sep low
- MoF intervention warnings near 158.50–158.60 have coincided with rejection in the upper half of the range
- US Employment Cost Index and Fed speakers on Friday could shift December hike pricing and the dollar leg