USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Monday-Wednesday uptrend stalled, rolling into a range · RSI 38 · price 157.669
Lower highs below 158.35, floor near 157.60.
USD/JPY climbed from Monday's 156.65 Asia-session week low to a 158.35 week high on Wednesday's Fed hold. That spike met rejection, and price has since rotated between 157.60 and 158.13 with lower highs, the descending lower-highs line containing each attempt. The ECB-hour push on Thursday stalled at the 158.13 Thu high despite the US GDP beat, and a late NY-session drop has taken price below the ema20 near 157.83 to test the range floor at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.60, 157.37, 156.65
Resistance: 157.83, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.6%) and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 157.60 range floor opens the path to the 50% fib near 157.50 and the 157.37 pullback low
Failure to hold the 157.37 pullback low exposes the Monday week low at 156.65
A recovery above the ema20 at 157.83 and the 158.13 Thu high breaks the lower-highs line; the 158.35 week high sits above that
21:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rotating lower in range · RSI 43 · price 157.703
Range 157.60–158.35 with lower highs since Fed high.
USD/JPY has kept most of Monday's Asia-session impulse off 156.65, but since the Fed high at 158.35 on Wednesday it has rotated inside a 157.60–158.35 range. The US GDP beat lifted it only to the Thu high at 158.13 before a rejection in early NY hours, printing lower highs as soft income and spending data and a softer dollar weighed. The late-NY drop has pushed price back below the EMA(20) near 157.87 onto the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse at 157.70, with RSI(14) near 43, the Thu low at 157.60 the nearest floor and the Tue low at 157.42 and the weekly open at 157.03 below.
Support: 157.60, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.87, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Thu low at 157.60 breaks the range floor and exposes the Tue low at 157.42 near the 50% fib
Recovery above the ema20 and a close through the Thu high at 158.13 would negate the lower highs sequence and reopen the Fed high at 158.35
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read; any December-hike guidance would test the range floor
Fri US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem could move the dollar leg; a slide toward the weekly open at 157.03 would erase most of the week's gain
Mon–Tue higher lows, Wed–Thu range 157.60–158.35 with a lower high.
USD/JPY built the weekly impulse from Monday's 156.65 Asia-session low through Tuesday. Momentum stalled after the Fed-hour spike to the 158.35 week high was rejected back below 158.00. Thursday's US GDP beat lifted price only to the 158.13 thu high before soft income and spending data pulled it back, leaving a lower high above the 157.60 thu low, which held near the 38.2% retracement; price now hugs EMA(20) near 157.91 with RSI(14) at 56, compressed between the rising support line and the lower-high line.
Support: 157.91, 157.60, 157.42
Resistance: 158.13, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.13 thu high breaks the lower-high line; above the 158.35 week high, the 158.60 range top and intervention rhetoric come into view
Failure to hold the 157.60 thu low and the rising support line exposes the 157.42 tue low and the 50% retracement
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 157.91 would turn the consolidation into a pullback within the week's range
Compression: lower highs from 158.35, higher lows from 157.60.
USD/JPY climbed from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65 through Tuesday's NY session, then met rejection at the 158.35 week high on Wednesday's Fed hold. Since then price has compressed between the 157.60 swing low, near the 38.2% retracement of the week's rise, and a lower high at 158.13, where the post-GDP push above 158.00 faded in the first hour of NY. Price sits on EMA(20) at 157.90 with RSI(14) near 54, still about 90 pips above the 157.03 weekly open.
Support: 157.90, 157.60, 157.03
Resistance: 158.13, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.13 lower high breaks the compression and opens the path to the 158.35 week high, then the 158.60 range top where intervention risk sits
Failure to hold the 157.60 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and the 38.2% retracement, exposing Tuesday's 157.42 low
US Q3 ECI Fri 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side test for the range
18:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled into a range · RSI 46 · price 157.898
157.60–158.35 range since Wednesday, lower high at 158.13.
The week impulse ran from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65 to the 158.35 week high. The climb came mostly through the London and NY sessions on Monday and Tuesday. Since Wednesday the pair has held a 157.60–158.35 range. The Fed-hold spike was rejected from the week high, and Thursday's US data push, a GDP beat with softer income and spending, faded from a lower high at 158.13. Price is now pinned to EMA(20) near 157.90 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, and the range floor sits just above the 38.2% retracement, with the 50% fib at 157.50 below.
Support: 157.60, 157.50, 157.03
Resistance: 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 158.13 breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 158.35 week high, with MoF intervention rhetoric flagged near 158.50
Failure to hold the 157.60 range floor exposes the 50% fib at 157.50, then the weekly open at 157.03
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
US Employment Cost Index at 12:30 UTC Fri is the next USD-side risk to the range
17:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled into consolidation · RSI 54 · price 157.888
157.60–158.35 range after Monday–Wednesday impulse; lower high Thursday.
The week impulse ran from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.649 to a 158.346 week high on Wednesday's Fed decision, where the hold with two hike dissents produced a spike that reversed within the hour. Since then the pair has held a 157.60–158.35 range: Thursday's Asian dip found the thu low at 157.602 between the 38.2% and 50% fib, and the NY spike on the US GDP beat and income/spending miss stalled at 158.127, a lower high. Price is now pinned just above flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR(14) around 17 pips, consistent with compression ahead of Japan event risk.
Support: 157.602, 157.498, 157.034
Resistance: 158.127, 158.346, 158.50
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.127 lower high reopens the 158.346 week high
158.50 psych zone where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped the pair
Failure to hold the 157.602 thu low exposes the 50% fib at 157.498 and the 157.034 weekly open
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem remarks later Friday
16:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling into a range · RSI 50 · price 157.853
Higher lows from Monday, now lower highs inside a 157.60–158.35 band.
USDJPY opened the week at 157.03, and most of the advance off Monday's 156.65 Asia low came in Monday's London and NY sessions. Since Tuesday the pair has compressed into a 157.60–158.35 band: the Fed hold spiked price to the 158.35 week high before an immediate rejection, and today's mixed US data (GDP beat, income and spending miss) pushed the NY-session move back from 158.13, a second lower high. Price sits just under EMA(20) near 157.89 and on EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat around 50. The Thursday low at 157.60 sits close to the 38.2% fib of the week's advance.
Support: 157.60, 157.03
Resistance: 157.89, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.60 thu low breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.03 weekly open
Close above the 158.13 thu high breaks the lower highs and reopens the 158.35 week high, with MoF intervention rhetoric flagged near 158.50
Tokyo CPI (23:30 UTC) and the BoJ decision (~03:00 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri is the next USD-side catalyst for a range break
15:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, ranging below the week high · RSI 50 · price 157.898
157.60–158.35 range since Wednesday, lower high at 158.13.
USD/JPY climbed from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65 through Tuesday on a firmer USD, clearing the weekly open at 157.03. It has ranged 157.60–158.35 since the Fed decision spiked price to the week high, a move that reversed within the hour. Today's US data drew another rejection at the 158.13 data high, setting a lower high, while the dip held the swing low near 157.70, in line with the 38.2% fib of the week impulse; price sits flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) at 50.
Support: 157.70, 157.60, 157.03
Resistance: 158.13, 158.35, 158.50
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.35 week high breaks the range top, with the 158.50 psych level and MoF intervention rhetoric next
Failure to hold the 157.60 range low confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.03 weekly open
Reclaim of the 158.13 data high negates the lower-highs sequence
14:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling into range · RSI 45 · price 157.81
Lower high at 158.13 under 158.35; higher lows intact above 157.60.
USDJPY climbed from Monday's Asia-session low at 156.65 through the weekly open, but since Wednesday the advance has stalled into a 157.60–158.35 range after the hawkish Fed hold spiked to the week high and was sold straight back. Today's firm US data (GDP beat, in-line core PCE) lifted the pair to 158.13 in the first hour of NY, but that thu high was rejected and price slipped back below the ema20 near 157.90, leaving a lower high. RSI(14) near 45 sits mid-range, and price is holding just above the rising support from Monday's low, with the range low at 157.60 the nearer floor.
Support: 157.60, 157.42, 157.03
Resistance: 157.90, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close below rising support (~157.76) and the range low at 157.60 ends the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the tue low at 157.42
Recovery above the ema20 at 157.90 and a close through the thu high at 158.13 reopens the week high at 158.35, with the 158.50 intervention-rhetoric zone beyond
Tokyo CPI (23:30 GMT) and the BoJ decision (~03:00 GMT Fri) fall in the next Asia session and could materially shift this read; a hawkish outcome puts the weekly open at 157.03 back in view
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC is a second risk window for the 158.13–158.35 lower-high cap
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing back toward post-FOMC high · RSI 61 · price 158.058
Higher lows since Monday; post-FOMC range 157.60–158.35.
USD/JPY has built a higher-low sequence since Monday's Asia low at 156.65, from 157.42 on Tuesday to Thursday's Tokyo-session swing low at 157.60. That low sits above the rising higher-low trendline and between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Monday–Wednesday impulse. The spike to 158.35 on the Fed's hawkish hold was rejected within two bars. Price has since rebuilt above EMA(20) through London and is testing the 158.08 day high, with RSI(14) near 61 as the US PCE/GDP actuals land.
Support: 157.93, 157.60, 157.03
Resistance: 158.08, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.35 FOMC high opens the 158.60 range top cited in the digest
Failure to hold the 157.60 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the week's sequence and exposes the week open at 157.03
Repeated H1 closes back below EMA(20) at 157.93 would turn the read from trend back to the post-FOMC range
US PCE and Q3 GDP actuals are still pending after the 12:30 GMT release and could reset the range edges
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision plus Ueda guidance on Fri 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Rising lows since Monday; 157.60–158.35 post-Fed band.
USD/JPY has climbed from Monday's Asia low at 156.65 to a week high of 158.35, printed on the FOMC spike during Wednesday's NY session, where the hawkish-dissent hold drew an immediate rejection. The pullback found a swing low at 157.60 in Thursday's Asia session, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week's rally and on rising support drawn from Tuesday's low. London has since lifted price back above EMA(20) near 157.91 with RSI(14) back to ~62, and it now sits just under today's session high at 158.07, with the week high and the 158.60 range top above.
Support: 157.91, 157.60, 157.42
Resistance: 158.07, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print would put the 157.60 swing low back in focus
An H1 close above the 158.35 week high reopens the 158.60 range top, the zone where intervention rhetoric has resurfaced
A break of 157.60 breaks rising support and exposes the 157.42 tue low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision at ~03:00 UTC Fri are the next scheduled risks to the structure
Higher lows since Monday; FOMC spike rejected, pullback held above 38.2%.
USDJPY opened the week at 157.03, dipped to a 156.65 week low in Monday's Asia session, then built steady higher lows through the London and NY sessions. The hawkish Fed hold spiked the pair to a 158.35 FOMC high, but the move was rejected straight back to 157.77. Today's Asia low at 157.60 held the higher-low trendline and stayed above the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse, and London has lifted price back to the 158.05 day high, above EMA(20) at 157.89.
Support: 157.89, 157.60, 157.03
Resistance: 158.05, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 158.35 fomc high and the 158.60 range top in focus
H1 close above the 158.35 fomc high would confirm the rejection as a pause, not a top
Failure to hold the 157.60 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 50% retracement of the week impulse near 157.50, then the 157.03 weekly open
H1 closes back below EMA(20) at 157.89 would turn the London rebound into another lower high under 158.35
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision early Friday are the next event risk after the US data
Higher lows since Monday; post-FOMC range 157.60–158.07.
USD/JPY climbed steadily from Monday's 156.65 Asia-session low. London and NY both extended the leg to 157.97 by Tuesday's close, with the yen weighed by higher oil and steady US data. The Fed's hawkish hold briefly lifted the pair to a 158.35 week high during NY hours Wednesday before a sharp rejection, and price has since compressed between the 157.60 swing low (near the 38.2% fib of the Mon–Wed leg) and the 158.07 thu high, now sitting just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 157.89, 157.60, 157.42
Resistance: 158.07, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.07 thu high reopens the 158.35 week high, with the 158.60 range top beyond
H1 close below the rising trendline (~157.71) and the 157.60 swing low exposes the 157.42 tue low near the 50% fib
Repeated closes below ema20 at 157.89 would confirm the post-FOMC range is drifting lower
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and Friday's BoJ decision are event risk for the 157.00–158.60 range
Monday-to-Wednesday higher lows intact above 157.60; lower highs since the FOMC spike.
USD/JPY climbed from Monday's 156.65 low through London and NY into Tuesday, stalled near 158.00, then spiked to a 158.35 week high in Wednesday's NY session. That spike reversed sharply on the hawkish-tilted Fed hold. Since then, lower highs at 158.07 and 157.97 have formed while the 157.60 Asia low held between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the week's impulse. Price is pinned to EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 47 ahead of today's US core PCE and GDP.
Support: 157.60, 157.50, 157.03
Resistance: 157.97, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 157.97 lower high and the 158.35 week high reopens the 158.60 range top
Failure to hold the 157.60 Asia low and the higher lows line exposes the fib 50% at 157.50, then the 157.03 weekly open
Tokyo CPI (23:30 UTC) and Friday's BoJ decision are the next JPY-side risk to the range
Post-FOMC consolidation 157.60–158.07 above a flat range floor.
The week's advance ran from Monday's 156.65 Asia low to a 158.35 week high during the FOMC hour. Supply capped that spike after the hawkish-split hold, when Warsh gave no clear December steer. Since then the pair has rotated between the 157.60 post-Fed low and Thursday's 158.07 Asia high, sitting just below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 45. Price is holding around the 38.2% retracement of the week's move, with a flat range floor near the 157.55 Tuesday low beneath.
Support: 157.60, 157.55, 157.50
Resistance: 157.95, 158.07, 158.35
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 157.60 post-Fed low and the range floor exposes the 157.55 Tuesday low and the fib 50% at 157.50
Recovery through the fib 23.6% at 157.95 and the 158.07 Asia high reopens the 158.35 week high
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and Friday's BoJ decision add event risk to the range
Higher lows since Monday; Fed spike faded to 38.2%.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's 156.65 low. The bulk of the climb came in London and NY hours as the yen unwound last week's intervention-fear spike. The Fed hold triggered a spike to a 158.35 week high that was rejected within the hour, and the pullback found demand at the 157.70 post-Fed low, the 38.2% retracement of the week rally and on rising support. Price now sits on EMA(20) with RSI(14) back at 50, and the Asia-session bounce has been capped around the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.70, 157.55, 157.03
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.70 post-Fed low and rising support breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the 157.55 Tuesday low
Sustained trade back above the 158.00 round number and a close through the 158.35 week high reopens the 158.60 range top
US core PCE and GDP at Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at Thu 23:30 UTC and the BoJ decision Fri ~03:00 UTC; a firmer yen puts the 157.03 weekly open back in focus
Higher lows intact; post-Fed rejection back below EMA(20).
USDJPY has climbed from Monday's 156.65 Asia-session low in a steady run of higher lows. London and NY drove Monday's and Tuesday's legs. The Fed hold produced a spike to the 158.35 Fed high during NY hours yesterday, which was rejected in a sell-the-fact USD move that left price below EMA(20) near 157.92 with RSI(14) back to ~47. The post-Fed low at 157.70 sits on the 38.2% fib of the week's advance and on the higher-low trendline, with the Wed low at 157.65 just beneath.
Support: 157.70, 157.65, 157.50
Resistance: 157.92, 158.04, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.65 Wed low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 50% fib at 157.50
Recovery through EMA(20) and the 158.04 prior high puts the 158.35 Fed high back in play
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and BoJ decision Fri 03:00 UTC are the next JPY-side risk