USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 30 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:54 UTC
Intraday recovery from day low, stalling under 157.64 · RSI 54 · price 157.533
Higher-low chain from 156.961, capped twice at 157.64 into the weekly close.
BoJ's hawkish hold knocked the pair from the 157.895 Asia high to the 157.117 boj low, and London extended to 156.961 before NY built higher lows, the latest at the 157.262 swing low. Price was rejected again at the 157.64 double cap into the weekly close and sits on the 61.8% retrace of the day's drop. RSI(14) is neutral at 54.
Support: 157.405, 157.262, 157.117
Resistance: 157.64, 157.743, 157.895
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.64 double cap opens the 157.743 rebound high, then the 157.895 Asia high
Loss of the 157.405 pivot low puts the 157.262 swing low and the higher-low trendline in play
Break below the 157.262 swing low ends the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 157.117 boj low
Weekend gap risk into Monday's US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could reset this read
22:44 UTC
Intraday recovery from London low, capped into the close · RSI 54 · price 157.533
Higher lows since 156.96; double test of 157.64.
London undercut the 157.12 post-BoJ low to a 156.96 day low as the soft Chicago PMI and lower yields weighed on USD. NY then built a chain of rising lows into the week close. Supply capped the 157.64 session high twice, and the final bar rejected back to 157.53, just above 157.50 psych. RSI(14) is neutral in the mid-50s.
Support: 157.50, 157.26, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.74
What it said to watch
A break above 157.64 session high and then the 157.74 london high extends the NY recovery; repeated rejection keeps the double test intact
Loss of 157.50 psych and the rising lows line near 157.36 exposes the 157.26 swing low, then the 156.96 day low
This is the final bar of the week; Monday's reopen and ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC, f/c 54.7) carry gap risk to this read
20:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 60 · price 157.606
NY higher-low chain off 156.96, testing 157.64 NY high.
The BoJ's hawkish hold drove the 157.12 BoJ low in Asia, and London extended the slide to a 156.96 day low. NY has since printed higher lows at 157.09, 157.13 and the 157.26 swing low, retracing ~69% of the drop from the 157.90 Asia high, with thin late-Friday trade pressing the 157.64 NY high and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 157.50, 157.26, 157.12
Resistance: 157.64, 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 NY high exposes the 157.74 London high, then the 157.90 Asia high
A close below the 157.50 pivot puts the rising trendline and the 157.26 swing low back in play
Failure to hold 157.26 breaks the NY higher-low chain and reopens the 157.12 BoJ low
Thin liquidity into the weekly close; US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) is the next scheduled risk for this read
20:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows, stalling below NY high · RSI 61 · price 157.564
Higher-low chain off 156.96 London low; 157.585 lower high under 157.64.
London broke the post-BoJ boj low at 157.12 and reached the 156.96 london low. NY reclaimed the Asian range on a rising higher low trendline as Ueda's vague hike timing and a firmer USD capped the yen. Late NY, price sits just above the 61.8% retrace of the asia high–london low move at 157.54, capped under the 157.64 ny high, with the 157.74 boj bounce high above.
Support: 157.26, 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 ny high opens the 157.74 boj bounce high and the 157.90 asia high
Loss of the 157.26 higher low breaks the higher low trendline and exposes the 157.12 boj low, then the 156.96 london low
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Monday's US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to this read
Late Friday NY session. USDJPY has built a higher-low chain along rising support from the 156.96 day low set in London, after the post-BoJ dip and soft Chicago PMI. Price is now pinned between the 157.40 pivot and a 157.58 lower high under the 157.64 NY high, with RSI(14) near 58 and no extremes. The 18:30 UTC pullback held the 157.26 swing low near the 61.8% of the 156.96–157.64 leg.
Support: 157.40, 157.262, 156.961
Resistance: 157.585, 157.642, 157.743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 NY high breaks the lower-high cap and exposes the 157.74 prior high
Loss of the 157.26 swing low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 156.96 day low
Hold of the 157.40 pivot keeps the late-NY consolidation intact into the weekly close
Thin end-of-week liquidity; Monday's ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to this read
Higher-low chain from 156.96; lower high pending under 157.64.
London extended the post-BoJ dip into a false break below the Asian low, printing a 156.96 session low. NY has since built higher lows along a rising trendline and reclaimed the 157.40 pivot as the yield-driven dollar slide paused. Price is now at 157.54 into the late-NY Friday close, with the bounce capping at 157.57, still below the 157.64 NY high.
Support: 157.40, 157.262, 156.961
Resistance: 157.642, 157.743, 157.895
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.64 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 157.74 rebound high, then the 157.90 Asian high.
Losing the 157.40 pivot and the higher-low trendline (~157.30) brings the 157.26 swing low and the 156.96 session low back into play.
Thin Friday-close liquidity. Monday's ISM release at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk for this read.
Higher-low chain from 156.96; capped below 157.64 NY high.
USD/JPY has rebuilt from the 156.96 session low set in London, printing higher lows on a rising trendline through NY hours as the yen bid after the BoJ's 8-1 hold faded. Late NY, price is pressing 157.55 just under the 157.64 NY high, with the 157.26 swing low and the 0.618 fib area holding; RSI(14) near 57, ATR about 11 pips.
Support: 157.40, 157.262, 156.961
Resistance: 157.642, 157.743, 157.895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 NY high exposes the 157.74 boj rebound high, then the 157.90 Asian high
Loss of the 157.40 pullback low and the rising trendline shifts focus back to the 157.26 swing low
Break below the 157.26 swing low ends the higher-low chain from the 156.96 session low
Friday late-NY liquidity thins into the weekend; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
Higher lows from 156.96 day low, compressing under the 157.51 NY cap.
The post-BoJ dip to 157.12 and the bounce to the 157.74 post-BoJ high on Ueda's vague timing gave way to a London slide to the 156.96 day low as US yields eased. Since then NY has printed higher lows along the rising lows line. A rejection at the 157.64 NY high left the late NY low at 157.26, inside the 50–61.8% band of the NY rally fib, and price sits at 157.48 just under the 157.51 NY cap into a thin Friday close, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 157.26, 157.09, 156.96
Resistance: 157.51, 157.64, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.51 NY cap reopens the 157.64 NY high and the 157.74 post-BoJ high
Break of the 157.26 late NY low and the rising lows line shifts focus back to the 157.09 NY low and 156.96 day low
Friday close liquidity is thin; Monday's ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to this read
Lower highs since NY high, holding above 157.26 swing low.
The post-BoJ high at 157.74 gave way to a London session low at 156.96. The NY rebound off the pre-NY base at 157.13 peaked at 157.64, and price has since faded on a chain of lower highs back to 157.36, sitting between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of that NY rebound as softer US yields cap the dollar. The 157.26 swing low is holding for now, with price just under EMA20 and RSI flat near 51.
Support: 157.26, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.46, 157.64, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower highs line near 157.46 breaks the late-NY fade and puts the NY high at 157.64 back in play
Failure to hold the 157.26 swing low exposes the pre-NY base at 157.13, then the session low at 156.96
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin into the weekend close; Monday's ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver
19:02 UTC
Intraday recovery from day low, momentum fading · RSI 51 · price 157.358
Higher lows off 156.96; 157.64 NY high is a lower high vs 157.74.
After the BoJ hold drove a dip to 157.12 and a boj rebound to 157.74, USD/JPY set a 156.96 day low in London, then built higher lows (157.13 among them) into a 157.64 NY high. Late NY, price has slipped back below the 157.50 range top and is retesting the rising trendline, with the 157.26 pullback low holding near the 50% fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and price sits just under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.26, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.26 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 157.13 higher low and the 156.96 day low
Close back above the 157.50 range top reopens the 157.64 NY high and the 157.74 boj rebound high
Friday close into thin liquidity; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs since Asia, higher lows off London low, compressing.
Late Friday NY: USD/JPY faded from the 157.64 NY high to 157.36. That high sits below the 157.74 prior high from London open and the 157.90 Asia peak, extending the lower-high line as the tech sell-off and softer yields keep USD heavy. Price has retraced about 40% of the 156.96 day low to 157.64 rally and is compressing between that line and the 157.13 swing low.
Support: 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.50 lower high breaks the post-NY-high fade, with 157.64 NY high next
Clearance of the lower-high line near 157.61 puts 157.74 prior high back in view
Loss of the 61.8% rally fib at 157.22, then 157.13 swing low, exposes 156.96 day low
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
18:31 UTC
Intraday recovery off day low, stalling below NY high · RSI 56 · price 157.424
Higher lows from 156.96; post-breakout pullback compressing 157.40–157.50.
USD/JPY set its day low at 156.96 late in London as tech-led Treasury buying pulled yields and the dollar lower. NY then built higher lows and broke out after London close to the 157.64 NY high, where a rejection followed. Price now sits just under the 157.50 range top, holding the 38.2% fib of the NY recovery with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 157.40, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.50, 157.64, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.40 swing low exposes the 157.13 higher low and the higher-low trendline
Loss of 157.13 unwinds the NY recovery and brings the 156.96 day low back into play
Close above 157.50 range top reopens the 157.64 NY high, with the 157.74 london high beyond
Further tech-equity stress into the Friday close could revive safe-haven JPY demand in thin late-NY liquidity
Higher lows off 156.96 low, lower highs capping from Asian high.
Off the 156.96 session low during London, NY built a chain of higher lows along rising support. The NY high at 157.64 was rejected, and price is consolidating near 157.45, just above the 157.40 pullback low. The lower highs from the 157.90 Asian high remain intact as a tech-driven drop in yields keeps USD soft into the weekly close.
Support: 157.40, 157.131, 156.961
Resistance: 157.642, 157.743, 157.895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.40 pullback low exposes the 157.13 higher low and the rising support line
Close above the 157.64 NY high and the lower highs line opens the 157.74 London high, then the 157.90 Asian high
Failure to hold the 156.96 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; ISM Mon 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
18:01 UTC
Intraday rebound off the 156.96 low, pausing below the NY high · RSI 58 · price 157.444
Higher lows 156.96 → 157.09 → 157.13; NY high 157.64, holding above the 157.40 pullback low.
The post-BoJ bounce stalled at the 157.74 London high. A London-hours slide on the softer dollar then reached a 156.96 day low. NY built higher lows from there and spiked to the 157.64 NY high, and late-Friday price is now holding the 157.40 pullback low near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) ~58 and ATR ~14 pips.
Support: 157.40, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.40 pullback low exposes the 157.13 NY low and the rising-lows trendline
Break of the rising-lows trendline below 157.13 voids the higher-low chain and puts the 156.96 day low back in play
Close above the 157.64 NY high opens the 157.74 London high, then the 157.90 Asia high
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Monday's US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from London low; pullback from NY high holding 38.2% fib.
London broke below the 157.12 BoJ-day Asian low to 156.96 as USD slid on tech-led Treasury buying. The break failed: NY printed higher lows at 157.09 and 157.13, then ran to a 157.64 NY high. Price is now late NY, after London close, holding above the 157.40 pullback low near the 38.2% fib.
Support: 157.399, 157.30, 157.131
Resistance: 157.642, 157.743
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.64 NY high extends the higher-low chain toward the 157.74 post-BoJ high
Failure of the 157.40 pullback low exposes the 50% fib at 157.30, the 'heavy' zone flagged in the digest
Loss of the 157.13 higher low breaks the NY trendline and reopens the 156.96 London low
Fed speakers Daly and Musalem today could jolt yields into a thin Friday close
17:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows from London low · RSI 57 · price 157.481
HH/HL chain back inside Asian range after London false break.
London took out the Asian range low near 157.12 on soft USD and lower yields, bottoming at the 156.96 London low. NY rebuilt a higher-low chain off that base, back above both EMAs. The 157.64 NY high, printed around Musalem's 16:30 UTC remarks, was rejected, and the pullback held 157.40, near the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 157.40, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.64 NY high extends the HH chain toward the 157.74 Asian high
Failure to hold the 157.40 NY pullback low exposes the HL trendline and the 157.13 swing low
A break below the 157.13 swing low unwinds the NY recovery and puts the 156.96 London low back in view
Late-NY Friday trade into the weekly close can produce thin, erratic bars; ISM and midterms risk sits beyond this window
Lower highs since Asia, NY higher lows, rally rejected at 157.64.
London broke below the Asian low at 157.12, the BoJ dip, and set a 156.96 session low before NY built higher lows and broke the 157.35 range top. The 157.64 NY high printed around Musalem's 16:30 UTC slot and was rejected under the 157.74 London high, leaving the sequence of lower highs intact. Price sits at 157.43 with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 157.35, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.74
What it said to watch
A close back below the 157.35 range top, then the 50% of the NY rally near 157.30, would mark the breakout as failed
Losing the 157.13 higher low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and puts the 156.96 session low back in play
A close above the 157.64 NY high and the 157.74 London high ends the lower-highs sequence that began in Asia
Thin Friday NY afternoon into the weekly close; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
17:02 UTC
Intraday recovery off london low, momentum stalling · RSI 59 · price 157.435
Higher lows from 156.96; NY broke 157.38 range top, rejected at 157.64.
London extended below the BoJ-day low to a 156.96 london low as softer US yields and tech-led risk-off weighed. NY then built a higher low chain and broke the 157.38 range top, but the spike to the 157.64 ny high around Musalem's remarks was rejected, and price is now sitting back on the breakout area.
Support: 157.38, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.38 range top (38.2% fib of the 156.96–157.64 leg) returns price to the NY chop
Loss of the 157.13 higher low and the higher-low trendline breaks the recovery structure and reopens the london low
Close above the 157.64 ny high exposes the 157.74 boj high, then the 157.90 asia high
Musalem headlines and thin trade into the weekly close could extend the swing in either direction
16:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since late London · RSI 61 · price 157.519
NY range top broken; HL chain from 156.96 day low.
After whipsawing on the BoJ hold in Asia, the pair sold off from the 157.74 london high to a 156.96 day low late in London. NY then built higher lows into a 15:45 UTC break of the 157.38 range top, printing a 157.55 session high after London close with RSI(14) near 61; the 157.90 asia high caps the window.
Support: 157.38, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.545, 157.743, 157.895
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift the read into the Friday weekly close
Holding above the 157.38 range top keeps the NY breakout intact; a return inside opens the 50% fib of the NY leg near 157.25
M15 close above the 157.74 london high retraces the full London decline and puts the 157.90 asia high in play
Break of the higher-low line near the 157.13 swing low negates the NY recovery structure
16:16 UTC
Intraday recovery from London low, momentum firming · RSI 60 · price 157.498
Higher lows through NY, NY high broken.
London took out the Asian low near the 157.12 BoJ low and printed a 156.96 day low as yields slid. NY has since built higher lows, and the late-NY bar cleared the 157.38 ny high to sit above the 61.8% retrace of the 157.74–156.96 drop, with RSI(14) near 60. The boj spike high at 157.62 is the next cap.
Support: 157.38, 157.13, 156.96
Resistance: 157.62, 157.74
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC and the Friday weekly close could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.38 ny high puts the move back inside the NY range
A break of the higher lows trendline toward the 157.13 ny low reopens the 156.96 day low
An M15 close above the 157.62 boj spike exposes the 157.74 london high
16:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in NY · RSI 52 · price 157.22
Lower highs since Asia open; NY range 157.09–157.38 with higher lows off the day low.
USDJPY slid from the 157.74 london high to a 156.96 day low late in London as softer Treasury yields weighed on USD, extending the lower-high sequence from the post-BoJ 157.12 dip. NY has built a 157.09–157.38 range on a rising line of higher lows, capped near the 50% fib of that drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price is hugging EMA20 below EMA50.
Support: 157.09, 156.96
Resistance: 157.38, 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.09 ny low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 156.96 day low back in play
Close above the 157.38 ny high and the 61.8% fib at 157.44 opens the path back to the 157.74 london high
Fed's Daly (16:00Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) on hike timing could materially shift this read into the weekly close
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in NY session · RSI 52 · price 157.209
Lower highs from 157.74 meeting higher lows from 156.96; compressing.
London broke the Asian range low at the 157.12 BoJ-session low and ran to a 156.96 day low as falling Treasury yields from the tech sell-off weighed on USD. NY has since compressed between the 157.09 ny low and 157.38 ny high, with higher lows pressing into lower highs off the post-BoJ high at 157.74. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 52.
Support: 157.09, 156.96
Resistance: 157.38, 157.74
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (16:00Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) could break the NY compression either way
M15 close below the rising line and 157.09 ny low exposes the 156.96 day low
M15 close above the 157.38 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path toward the 157.74 post-BoJ high
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in NY · RSI 53 · price 157.213
Lower highs intact; NY consolidation on rising lows inside 157.09–157.38.
The post-BoJ bounce stalled at the 157.74 boj rebound high. London then broke the 157.12 boj low and printed the 156.96 london low as Treasury yields slid. NY has built a 157.09–157.38 consolidation on rising lows, with price sitting just under EMA20 near 157.24.
Support: 157.117, 156.961
Resistance: 157.377, 157.436, 157.743
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising lows near 157.19 puts the boj low at 157.12 and the london low at 156.96 back in play
M15 close above the 157.38 ny high breaks the consolidation and exposes the 157.44 lower high
Rally failure below the 50% of the london drop (~157.35) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift US yields and this read within the hour
Lower highs since London open; higher-low chain off 156.96 capped near 157.38.
London extended the post-BoJ slide through the 157.11 Asian low to a 156.96 London low as softer Treasury yields weighed on USD. NY reclaimed the Asian low with a higher-low chain from 157.09 to 157.22. Price is compressing near the 38.2% retrace, under the 157.38 NY high at the 50% level, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR about 15 pips.
Support: 157.22, 157.11, 156.96
Resistance: 157.38, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.38 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 61.8% retrace near 157.44, then the 157.74 London high
Loss of the 157.22 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 157.11 Asian low
Failure to hold 157.11 turns the reclaim into a false break and puts the 156.96 London low back in play
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) fall around London close and could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend from post-BoJ high, NY rebound in progress · RSI 55 · price 157.282
Higher lows off 156.96 session low, capped at 157.38 NY high.
London extended the post-BoJ slide through the 157.12 BoJ low to a 156.96 session low. NY then reclaimed that level with higher lows at 157.09 and 157.11, even as soft US yields and the Chicago PMI miss weighed on USD. Price sits at the 38.2% fib of the 157.74–156.96 drop, capped by the 157.38 NY high and pressing EMA50 from below; RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 157.11, 156.96
Resistance: 157.38, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.38 NY high clears the 50% fib and opens the post-BoJ high at 157.74
Loss of the 157.11 BoJ low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and re-exposes the 156.96 session low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, NY pullback stalling · RSI 54 · price 157.237
Lower highs from 157.74; NY higher lows inside 157.09–157.38.
Lower highs since the 157.74 London-open rebound, with London breaking the post-BoJ 157.12 low to a 156.96 session low as USD softness extended. NY has bounced on rising lows but stalled at the 157.38 NY high near the 50% fib, leaving price mid-range at 157.24 under the 157.44 London high.
Support: 157.09, 156.96
Resistance: 157.38, 157.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.38 ny high and 157.44 london high (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 157.09 ny low breaks the NY rising lows and exposes the 156.96 session low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound fading · RSI 46 · price 157.153
Lower highs from London high; NY bounce capped near 50% fib.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the 157.74 London high. It broke the 157.12 post-BoJ low to a 156.96 session low as falling Treasury yields weighed on USD. The NY rebound stalled at the 157.38 NY high near the 50% retracement of the London drop, and price is back testing 157.12 and the rebound line, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.38, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below 157.12 and the rebound line exposes the 156.96 session low
Close above the 157.38 NY high reclaims the London drop fib 50% and opens the path to the 157.74 London high
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from 157.74; higher lows building off 156.96.
Lower highs from the 157.74 london high ran to a 156.96 day low late in London, taking out the 157.12 post-BoJ low as falling US yields drew a haven yen bid. Since the in-line ECI, NY has printed higher lows at 157.02 and 157.09, and price is now retesting the broken 157.30 area at the 50% retracement near 157.35, just above both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 157.09, 156.96
Resistance: 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.44 (61.8% fib, 09:30 UTC high) breaks the lower-high chain and opens the path to the 157.74 london high
Failure to hold the 157.09 higher low puts the 156.96 day low and 157.00 back in play
Chicago PMI (due now) and Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC could move US yields and materially shift this read
Lower highs from 157.74; bounce off 156.96 low capped at 157.34.
Lower highs since the 157.74 post-BoJ rebound high. London undercut the 157.12 BoJ low to a session low at 156.96, and falling US yields kept the pair heavy. The in-line ECI sparked a bounce that met rejection at 157.34, just under the 50% fib and the lower-highs trendline. Early in the NY session, price is back near 157.20 below both EMAs, with the 157.15 higher low the nearest support.
Support: 157.15, 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.34, 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.15 higher low exposes the 157.12 BoJ low and the 156.96 session low
M15 close above the 157.34 lower high and the trendline challenges the downtrend read; the 157.44 swing high is next
Chicago PMI, Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) on hike risk could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from 157.74; higher lows since 156.96 in early NY.
London extended the slide from the 157.74 london high through the 157.12 boj low to a 156.96 session low. The in-line ECI at 12:30 UTC triggered a rebound, and higher lows have formed into the NY open. Price is now pressing the 157.36 lower high, which sits on the 50% retrace of the drop. Price is sitting just under EMA50.
Support: 157.21, 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.36, 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.36 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 157.44 swing high, then the 157.74 london high, in view
Loss of the 157.21 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and returns focus to the 157.12 boj low and the 156.96 session low
Chicago PMI (f/c 56.1) now, then Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound testing it · RSI 50 · price 157.257
London lower highs and lows; NY higher low at 157.02.
London broke the Asian range low and the 157.12 boj low, bottoming at the 156.96 session low as softer US yields weighed. The in-line ECI at 12:30 UTC lifted price through the descending trendline off the 157.74 London high to the 38.2% of the London leg, with the 157.29 ny high now capping and a higher low in place at 157.02.
Support: 157.12, 157.02, 156.96
Resistance: 157.29, 157.36, 157.44
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, then Daly and Musalem from 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
A close above the 157.36 lower high breaks the London sequence and opens the 157.44 fib 61.8
A slip back below the 157.12 boj low and 157.02 higher low reopens the 156.96 session low
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; NY bounce capped at the 38.2% retrace.
London extended the post-BoJ slide through the 157.12 boj low to a 156.96 london low, while softer US yields kept USD heavy. The bounce after the in-line ECI stalled at the 157.27 ny high, which matches the 38.2% retrace of the London leg and the lower-highs trendline. Price is holding just above the boj low, under ema20, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.22, 157.27, 157.36
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (f/c 56.1) could materially shift this read
A close above the 157.36 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 157.12 boj low reopens the 156.96 london low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) may move front-end yields
LH/LL chain from 157.74 London-open high; post-BoJ low broken.
London sold the BoJ-recovery london high at 157.74 and pushed through the 157.12 boj low to a session low at 156.96, printing successive lower highs as US yields slid. The ECI spike to 157.27 stalled at the descending lower-high line and the 38.2% retrace, and price is now back near 157.18 early in the NY session.
Support: 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.27, 157.36, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.27 eci spike and the 157.36 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold back above the 157.12 boj low keeps the 156.96 session low in focus
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Daly/Musalem at 16:00–16:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from 157.74; morning range broken lower, bounce stalling.
London extended a lower-high chain from 157.74. It broke the 157.17–157.44 morning range and the 157.12 BoJ low to print a 156.96 session low, with falling US yields and AI-led risk-off keeping the yen bid. The bounce off the low has stalled below 157.16 into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 157.00, 156.96
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.44
What it said to watch
US ECI (12:30 UTC), Chicago PMI and Daly/Musalem later could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 157.12 BoJ low and the lower-highs trendline near 157.20 would mark the first break in the sequence
Recovery through the 157.36 lower high and the 157.44 range top invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 157.00 round number and the 156.96 session low extends the lower-low chain; a bounce into 157.26–157.35 sits at the 38–50% retrace of the London drop
Asian range broken lower, lower-high/lower-low chain from 157.74.
USDJPY broke the 157.12 Asian low at 11:00 UTC as falling US yields and AI-equity risk-off revived the yen bid. That set a 156.96 session low in the London-NY transition, with price now pinned near the 157.00 round number. Lower highs from the 157.74 swing high hold under the descending trendline, and RSI(14) sits near 37 with no extreme.
Support: 157.00, 156.96
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.74
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC lands on the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 157.12 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 156.96 session low extends the lower-low chain below the 157.00 round number
Close above the 157.36 lower high (50% fib) breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) during NY hours
12:15 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 31 · price 157.008
LH/LL chain; broke below the 157.17–157.44 morning range and the BoJ low.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs along a descending trendline since the 157.74 session high at London open. It broke the 157.17–157.44 morning range and the 157.12 BoJ low to a session low at 156.96, as falling US yields and AI equity stress keep JPY bid. RSI(14) near 31 is stretched but not extreme, and price is pinned at the 157.00 round number into the London-NY transition.
Support: 156.96
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.74
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC lands in the next bar and could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 157.12 BoJ low would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 157.36 lower high breaks the descending trendline and sits at the 50% of the London drop fib
Failure to hold the 156.96 session low extends the lower-low chain below 157.00
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range low and BoJ low broken.
London faded the post-BoJ bounce from the 157.74 london high, printing lower highs at 157.44 and 157.36 and breaking the Asian range low and the 157.12 boj low as US yields slid on AI-equity stress. Price is sitting on the 157.00 round number just above the 156.96 session low, with RSI(14) near 36 and not yet oversold.
Support: 157.00, 156.961
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.743
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, roughly 30 minutes out, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 157.12 boj low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 156.96 session low and the round number extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 157.36 lower high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 157.74-156.96 leg's 61.8% at 157.44 in play
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 38 · price 157.048
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low and BoJ low broken.
London reversed the post-BoJ bounce from the 157.74 London high, cut through the 157.12 BoJ low and the Asian range, and set a session low at 156.99 as US yields slid. The lower highs at 157.44 and 157.36 define the London leg trendline, and RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 156.99
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.74
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%), about 45 min out, could materially shift this read
A move back above the 157.12 BoJ low would turn the break into a false break
An M15 close above the 157.36 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 156.99 session low extends the leg below the 157.00 round number
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 36 · price 157.12
Post-BoJ rebound faded; BoJ low broken, retest from below.
The post-BoJ rebound peaked at the 157.74 London high and has since printed lower highs at 157.44 and 157.36, before a slip through the 157.12 BoJ low to a 157.00 session low. Mid-London, price is retesting the BoJ low from below with RSI(14) near 36. Falling US yields and equity risk-off keep the yen firm ahead of ECI.
Support: 157.00
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.36 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 157.00 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Acceptance back above the 157.12 BoJ low would mark the break below it as a false break
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 UTC follow
London lower highs from 157.74; BoJ low 157.12 broken, testing 157.00.
London reversed the post-BoJ rebound from 157.74 and carved a lower-high chain under a falling trendline. That sequence broke the 157.12 BoJ low and tagged 157.00 (session low 156.996). RSI(14) sits near 31 as USD softness extends ahead of the ECI.
Support: 157.00
Resistance: 157.12, 157.36, 157.44
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%), then Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read in the first hours of NY
M15 close back above the 157.12 BoJ low would turn the break into a false break
Acceptance below the 157.00 session low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 157.36 lower high and the London trendline breaks the sequence; the 157.44 swing high sits above
Lower highs into flat 157.17 base since early London.
Early London saw a rejection at the 157.74 London high and sold to 157.17. That has almost fully retraced the BoJ rebound off the 157.12 BoJ low, and price has not held the 157.70 area the JPY digest cites. Since then price has compressed in lower highs against a flat 157.17 London low, with the range top at 157.44, consistent with falling US yields and soft risk tone.
Support: 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.36, 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.17 london low exposes the 157.12 boj low (session low)
Close above the 157.36 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence; 157.44 range top above, then 157.74 london high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Holding below the 78.6% retracement of the BoJ rebound keeps the full reversal in view
Lower highs from 157.74 session high; tight range 157.22–157.44 above London low.
The BoJ hold briefly flushed USD/JPY to the 157.12 BoJ low, and Ueda's vague timing then lifted it to the 157.74 session high. That high was rejected at London open and the pair fell back to the 157.17 London low, so the digest's 157.70 reference is already stale. Since then price has been coiling mid-London between the 157.22 range low and 157.44 range high, capped below the 50% of the London drop fib, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 157.22, 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.44 range high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 157.74 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.22 range low exposes the 157.17 London low and the 157.12 BoJ low; a break there extends the intraday downtrend
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the main catalyst for a break of the current range
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could reshape the read during NY hours
Lower highs since 157.74, compressing above 157.17-157.12 lows.
London faded the post-BoJ rebound at the 157.74 London high. The 08:15 UTC drop set a 157.17 London low just above the 157.12 BoJ low, and lower highs since have pressed price to 157.27, with RSI(14) near 37 and both EMAs overhead. The post-Ueda yen softness has largely unwound, leaving price compressed into late London ahead of US ECI.
Support: 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.12 BoJ low extends the intraday lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 157.44 swing high and lower-high trendline invalidates the downtrend read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; Daly/Musalem follow at 16:00-16:30 UTC
Lower highs 157.90/157.74/157.44 pressing on a flat 157.12–157.17 floor.
Early London capped at the 157.74 london high, a lower high under the 157.90 Asian top. The slide to 157.17 left the london low just above the 157.12 session low set on the BoJ hold, and the digest's 157.70 recovery has fully faded. The bounce stalled at 157.44 between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the London leg. That keeps the lower-high sequence intact, with RSI(14) near 38 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.12 session low confirms a lower-low and breaks the double test of the floor
M15 close above the 157.44 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 157.74 london high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; a hot print lifting yields would pressure the lower-high line
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) on December hike odds
London open faded the post-BoJ rebound at the 157.74 london high. The drop retested the 157.12 boj low with a 157.17 london low, as softer US yields kept pressure on the pair. Mid-London, price is chopping 157.25–157.44 below the bounce high and a trendline of lower highs from the Asian session top, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
Break and M15 close below the 157.12 boj low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 157.44 bounce high (near the 50% retrace of the London leg) puts the lower highs trendline and 157.74 london high back in focus
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC follows
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 157.32
Post-BoJ rebound failed at 157.74; retesting the BoJ low inside the Asian range.
The post-BoJ recovery from the 157.12 boj low, sparked by Ueda's vagueness on December timing, was rejected at the 157.74 london high at the London open. Lower highs have since pushed price back to a 157.17 london low. The bounce high at 157.44 now caps it, near the 50% retrace of the London decline fib.
Support: 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.44, 157.74
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 157.12 boj low prints a fresh session lower-low below the Asian range
Close above the 157.44 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery through the 157.74 london high negates the London-session downtrend read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 42 · price 157.353
Lower highs at 157.90/157.74/157.44; higher low at 157.17 above the 157.12 asian low.
The post-BoJ rebound from the 157.12 asian low was rejected at the 157.74 london high at London open. London then sold back to the 157.17 london low before a shallow bounce that is capped so far at the 157.44 bounce high, near the 50% of the london leg fib. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42, and the descending trendline from the 157.90 asia high still defines the lower-high sequence.
Support: 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.44, 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.12 asian low breaks the BoJ-day floor and extends the lower-high, lower-low chain
M15 close above the 157.44 bounce high reopens the 157.74 london high and the descending trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) remarks on December hike risk are a later NY-session risk
Lower highs from 157.90 and 157.74; London low holding just above the BoJ low.
The London open rejected 157.74, the London high, and price slid to a 157.17 London low, just above the 157.12 BoJ low, with a soft USD weighing. The bounce sits near the 38.2% fib of that leg at 157.39, still below the 157.45 breakdown level and the descending trendline from 157.90.
Support: 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.45, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.12 BoJ low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 157.45 breakdown level and the 50% fib turns the read back to a 157.45–157.74 range
Break of the descending trendline and the 157.74 London high invalidates the lower-high structure
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend inside the post-BoJ range · RSI 40 · price 157.341
Lower highs from 157.74; retesting the 157.12 BoJ low.
The post-BoJ rebound from 157.12 peaked at the 157.74 session high into London. A lower high at 157.67 and a breakdown through 157.44 then took price to a 157.17 swing low, just above the BoJ low. RSI(14) sits near 40 with price below EMA20/50, and the 157.12–157.74 range is still intact.
Support: 157.17, 157.12
Resistance: 157.44, 157.67, 157.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.12 BoJ low breaks the day's range floor and extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 157.44 breakdown level, near the 50% rebound retrace, plus a break of the lower-high trendline would neutralise the London selling
Rejection under the 157.67 lower high keeps the 157.74 session high out of reach
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from 157.90 onto flat lows at 157.12–157.17.
London open faded the post-Ueda rebound at the 157.74 london high. Price slid 57 pips to retest the 157.12 boj low, with the london low printing at 157.17, as the softer USD tone weighs. Highs keep stepping lower since the Tokyo open, and price is bouncing off the lows below the 157.44 prior low, now acting as a cap, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 157.167, 157.117
Resistance: 157.44, 157.743
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.12 boj low breaks the flat base and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 157.44 prior low shifts the read to a range above the london low
Close above the 157.74 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and the resulting US yield move could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower high at London open · RSI 38 · price 157.198
Post-BoJ rebound fully faded; price back near the 157.12 BoJ low inside the Asian range.
London capped the post-Ueda rebound at 157.74. That London high is a lower high below the 157.90 Asia high, which keeps the lower-highs trendline intact. Price has since slid to a 157.17 session low, retesting the 157.12 BoJ low with RSI(14) near 38 and the pair below both EMAs.
Support: 157.17, 157.117, 157.00
Resistance: 157.44, 157.743, 157.895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.12 BoJ low breaks the Asian range and confirms a lower low, with 157.00 round number the next reference
A move back above the 157.44 flip level would return price to a 157.12–157.74 range
A close above the 157.74 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, via Treasury yields, could materially shift this read
Rejected at 157.74 London high, back at 50% retrace of 157.12–157.74.
After the BoJ hold sent USDJPY to the 157.12 boj low, the rebound stalled at the 157.74 london high. Early London has retraced to the 50% level near 157.43, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 46. Ueda's lack of timing guidance on the next hike capped the yen move, and the bounce is now losing ground.
Support: 157.36, 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.66, 157.74, 157.89
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.36 fib 61.8 exposes the 157.25 swing low and the 157.12 boj low
Close back above the 157.66 lower high reopens the 157.74 london high and the 157.89 asian high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) in the NY session could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Rebound from BoJ low, stalling below session high · RSI 54 · price 157.564
Higher lows from 157.12, capped at 157.74; choppy 157.44–157.74 range into London open.
The Asia slide to the 157.12 boj low on the BoJ's 8-1 hold reversed once Ueda gave no hike timing, with a higher-low trendline carrying price back to a 157.74 session high. At London open, price is chopping between the 157.44 swing low and that high, sitting near the 38.2% of the bounce, with the 157.90 asia high above.
Support: 157.437, 157.253, 157.117
Resistance: 157.743, 157.895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.44 swing low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 157.25 higher low and 50–61.8% fib
Close above the 157.74 session high reopens the 157.90 asia high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the 157.12 boj low invalidates the rebound structure
07:46 UTC
Recovering from BoJ low, higher lows intact · RSI 59 · price 157.653
Higher-low chain off 157.12, capped by London high at 157.74.
USDJPY has retraced most of the post-BoJ drop to 157.12 as Ueda gave no timing on a December hike. Higher lows at 157.25 and 157.44 track the rising support line. Early London rejected 157.74, near the 78.6% fib, and price is now holding a 157.44–157.74 London range above the 61.8% level.
Support: 157.44, 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 157.44 breaks the rising support line and the higher-low chain
Close above the london high at 157.74 opens the asian high at 157.90
Loss of the 157.25 higher low exposes the boj low at 157.12
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem from 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-BoJ higher-low chain broken after rejection at 157.74.
BoJ's hawkish 8-1 hold at 03:00 UTC set the Asia session low at the 157.12 boj low. The rebound then built higher lows into a 157.74 swing high, which was rejected during Ueda's presser. The 07:15 UTC bar erased the 157.47 pullback low and price now sits on the fib 50% of the 157.12–157.74 leg, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 157.43, 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.43 fib 50% exposes the 157.25 swing low, then the 157.12 boj low
Recovery above the 157.74 swing high reopens the 157.90 asian high and negates the lower-high read
Ueda presser still running: any explicit December signal can extend or reverse this leg
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC in NY session could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.12 BoJ low, capped below 157.74.
The BoJ's hawkish 8-1 hold drove the Asian-session low at 157.12, extending the slide from the 157.90 Asian high. Higher lows at 157.25 and 157.47 (the Ueda low during the presser) track rising support into the London open. Price sits near the 61.8% fib of that leg after a wick rejection at the 157.74 rebound high.
Support: 157.47, 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.47 Ueda low breaks the rising support and exposes the 157.25 higher low and the 157.12 BoJ low
M15 close above the 157.74 rebound high opens the path to the 157.90 Asian high
Ueda presser still underway; US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off the BoJ low · RSI 56 · price 157.655
Higher lows off 157.12, capped at 157.69–157.71 into London open.
USD/JPY spiked to the 157.117 BoJ low after the hawkish hold, then carved higher lows at the 157.25 higher low and the 157.47 Ueda low as Ueda's presser got underway. The pair now sits at 157.65 at London open, retesting the 157.69–157.71 session high. That area was support during the prior NY session and sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the Asia drop from 157.895.
Support: 157.466, 157.253, 157.117
Resistance: 157.71, 157.895, 158.127
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.71 session high exposes the 157.895 asia high, with the 158.127 prior high beyond
Break of the 157.466 ueda low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 157.253 higher low and 157.117 boj low back in focus
Ueda's wording on December, then US ECI at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; higher low built off the BoJ low.
Yen strength after the hawkish BoJ hold (8-1, hike dissent) drove USDJPY to a 157.12 BoJ low. The rebound stalled at 157.69, extending the lower-high sequence from 158.13 and the 157.90 Asia high, and price is now back at the 157.47 pullback low, near 38.2% of the rebound. The 157.25 higher low and a rising support line from the BoJ low sit beneath.
Support: 157.47, 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.69, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.47 pullback low and the rising support line exposes the 157.25 higher low, then the 157.12 boj low
M15 close above the 157.69 rebound high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 157.90 asia high
Ueda's presser: a December hike hint versus data-dependence wording could reprice this read quickly
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the next USD-side catalyst
The hawkish BoJ hold swept the 157.19 overnight low to a 157.12 BoJ low before price rebuilt a higher low chain at the 157.25 swing low and 157.51. The rebound stalled at the 157.69 rebound high, still well under the 157.90 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price sitting on EMA50 late in the Asia session.
Support: 157.51, 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.69, 157.90
What it said to watch
Ueda's presser at 06:30 UTC is live and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.51 higher low breaks the post-BoJ rebound structure and exposes the 157.25 swing low
Close above the 157.69 rebound high opens the path to the 157.90 Asian high
Loss of the 157.12 BoJ low would resume the intraday downtrend
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, corrective rebound from BoJ low · RSI 54 · price 157.616
Higher low at 157.25 after 157.12 low; tight box under 157.69.
The hawkish BoJ hold drove USD/JPY to a 157.12 boj low, extending the slide from 158.13, before a higher low at 157.25 started a rebound along the rising rebound line. Late Asia has stalled at the 61.8% fib of the 157.90–157.12 drop, with price in a 157.57–157.69 box, capped by the 157.69 rebound high and holding barely above the EMA50.
Support: 157.57, 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.69, 157.90
What it said to watch
Ueda presser at 06:30 UTC: a December-hike signal or a data-dependent tone could break the box either way
M15 close above the 157.69 rebound high clears the 61.8% fib and opens 157.90 asian high
Loss of 157.57 box low puts the higher low at 157.25 and rebound line back in play
Break below 157.12 boj low resumes the downtrend structure
US ECI 12:30 UTC adds second event risk into the NY session
Higher lows since 157.12 BoJ low, price at 61.8% retrace of Asia drop.
The BoJ-hold spike to 157.12 became a false break of the 157.19 Asian low and has been fully retraced. Since then price has printed a higher low at 157.25 and a 157.69 session high, and is now holding the 157.59 pre-boj high at the 61.8% fib of the 157.89–157.12 Asia drop. RSI(14) is near 56 and price sits only marginally above the ema50 into Ueda's presser.
Support: 157.59, 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.69, 157.75, 157.89
What it said to watch
Ueda's BoJ presser at 06:30 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read; an explicit December-hike signal is the main yen catalyst
M15 close above the 157.69 session high opens the 157.75 breakdown point and the 157.89 asia high
Loss of the 157.59 pre-boj high exposes the 157.25 higher low and the post-BoJ trendline; a break below the 157.12 boj low reasserts the intraday downtrend
London open in ~1h, with US ECI at 12:30 UTC adding later-session risk
05:46 UTC
24h downtrend, short-term rebound in late Asia · RSI 57 · price 157.642
BoJ low at 157.12 held, higher low at 157.25, price testing the 157.69 bounce high.
The hawkish BoJ hold briefly broke the early-Asia low and printed 157.12 (BoJ low). That extended the slide from the 158.13 post-GDP high. A higher low at 157.25 has since lifted price back above the 157.60 pre-BoJ high, retracing about 68% of the drop from the 157.90 Asia high. Price is now testing the 157.69 bounce high late in the Asia session.
Support: 157.60, 157.253, 157.117
Resistance: 157.694, 157.895
What it said to watch
BoJ presser 06:30 UTC: a December hike hint from Ueda could reverse the rebound
M15 close back below 157.60 pre-BoJ high exposes the 157.25 higher low
Clearing the 157.69 bounce high opens the 157.90 Asia high
Loss of the 157.12 BoJ low resumes the lower-low sequence
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Asia-session downtrend, corrective rebound in play · RSI 53 · price 157.608
Higher low at 157.253 after the BoJ low; testing 61.8% retrace.
USD/JPY flushed to the 157.117 BoJ low on the hawkish 03:00 UTC hold. It then printed a higher low at 157.253 and rebounded to a 157.682 bounce high. Late in the Asia session, price sits at the 61.8% retrace of the 157.895 Asian high to BoJ low drop, with RSI(14) near 53 and price pressing the EMA50.
Support: 157.506, 157.253, 157.117
Resistance: 157.682, 157.895
What it said to watch
Ueda's presser at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read. A non-committal tone versus a clear December signal is the swing factor.
An M15 close above the 157.682 bounce high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the path to the 157.895 Asian high.
Loss of the fib 50% at 157.506, then the 157.253 higher low, would reopen the 157.117 BoJ low.
Wide BoJ-day ranges keep ATR(14) elevated near 15 pips into the London open.
Lower highs since 158.13; higher low at 157.25 after BoJ low.
The BoJ hold at 03:00 UTC sent USD/JPY to a 157.12 session low, extending the Asia-session slide from 157.90 as JPY firmed on the hawkish Takata dissent. Price has since printed a higher low at 157.25 and is testing the 50% fib retrace of that leg near 157.50, just below the pre-BoJ high at 157.62.
Support: 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.62, 157.75
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 157.62 pre-BoJ high opens the 157.75 breakdown area and breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.25 higher low breaks post-BoJ support and exposes the 157.12 session low; a break there extends the downtrend
US ECI at 12:30 UTC adds USD-side risk later in the session
Lower highs since Asia open, 157.25 base under post-BoJ bounce.
The hawkish BoJ hold at 03:00 UTC sent USD/JPY to a 157.12 session low. The rebound stalled at the 157.48 rebound high, and late in the Asia session price sits on a 157.25 base, pressing the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib near 157.41–157.43.
Support: 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.48, 157.62
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.48 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 157.62 pre-BoJ high
Failure to hold the 157.25 base exposes the 157.12 session low
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after BoJ spike · RSI 43 · price 157.332
Lower highs from 158.13; post-BoJ range 157.25–157.48.
Late Asia session: the pair sold off from the 157.90 Asia high, and the hawkish-leaning BoJ hold (Takata dissent) spiked it to a 157.12 BoJ low. The rebound stalled at the 157.48 post-BoJ high, just above the 38.2% fib. Price is now compressing between the 157.25 intraday low and 157.48 under the falling trendline, RSI(14) 43, with Ueda's presser next.
Support: 157.25, 157.12, 157.00
Resistance: 157.48, 157.62, 157.90
What it said to watch
Ueda presser at 06:30 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read; a December-hike nod puts the 157.12 boj low back in focus
M15 close above the 157.48 post-BoJ high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 157.62 pre-BoJ high
Failure to hold the 157.25 intraday low and 157.12 boj low confirms a lower-low toward the 157.00 round number
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the USD-side risk to this structure
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia session · RSI 42 · price 157.299
LH/LL chain since Tokyo open; post-BoJ bounce capped at descending trendline.
Late in the Asia session, USDJPY has made a run of lower highs from the 157.90 Asia high. The BoJ's hawkish-leaning hold (Takata dissent) flushed price 50 pips to the 157.12 BoJ low at 03:00 UTC, and a softer USD added to the pressure. The rebound stalled at the 157.48 bounce high, which lines up with the Asia lower-highs trendline and sits just above the 38.2% of the Asia drop fib. Price is holding just above the 157.25 swing low with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 157.25, 157.12
Resistance: 157.48, 157.62, 157.90
What it said to watch
Ueda's presser at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a noncommittal tone risks unwinding the post-BoJ drop
M15 close above the 157.48 bounce high and the Asia lower-highs trendline exposes the 157.62 pre-BoJ high, with the 157.90 Asia high above
Failure to hold the 157.25 swing low brings the 157.12 BoJ low back into play and extends the lower-low chain
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk to this structure
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 157.90; consolidating 157.25–157.48 below the trendline.
Asia session broke below the prior NY low at 157.71. The BoJ's hawkish hold (Takata dissent) then flushed price to the 157.12 BoJ low, with a 157.19 swing low marked earlier in the session. The rebound stalled at the 157.48 rebound high near the 38.2% retrace, and price is now holding just above the 157.25 minor low with RSI(14) at 44 and lower highs off 157.90 intact.
Support: 157.25, 157.19, 157.12
Resistance: 157.48, 157.62, 157.71
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; firm December guidance puts the 157.12 boj low back in play
Failure to hold the 157.25 minor low and 157.19 swing low exposes the 157.12 boj low; a close below it extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 157.48 rebound high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 157.62 pre-boj high, then the 157.71 ny low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side catalyst for the pair
Lower highs from 157.90; Tokyo session broke below the late-NY range, now mid-range after the BoJ spike low.
Tokyo session broke from the 157.75 breakdown level to a 157.19 Tokyo low. The hawkish BoJ hold then spiked price from the 157.62 BoJ high to a 157.12 session low, a JPY bid helped by softer US yields. The rebound met rejection at 157.48, the rebound high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 157.90–157.12 drop. The lower-high trendline from 157.90 is intact, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 157.19, 157.12
Resistance: 157.48, 157.62, 157.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.48 rebound high and 50% fib at 157.51 opens a test of the 157.62 BoJ high and the lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 157.75 breakdown level would negate the Tokyo selloff structure
Failure to hold the 157.19 Tokyo low and 157.12 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC (~2.5h, into London open) could materially shift this read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side catalyst
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off BoJ low · RSI 47 · price 157.435
Lower highs and lower lows; post-BoJ rebound testing 38.2% retrace.
Friday's Asia session extended Thursday's NY slide. The BoJ's hawkish hold, with Takata dissenting for a hike, drove a spike to a 157.12 low before a roughly 30-pip rebound to the 38.2% retrace of the 157.90–157.12 drop. Lower highs from the 157.90 Asia high to the 157.62 BoJ high keep the sequence pointed down; RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price sits just under the ema20 near 157.50.
Support: 157.19, 157.12
Resistance: 157.50, 157.62, 157.90
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.62 BoJ high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 157.90 Asia high
Failure to hold the 157.19 prior low exposes a retest of the 157.12 BoJ low
Rejection at the ema20 / 50% fib near 157.50 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Lower highs at 157.90 and 157.62, with a false break of 157.19 on the BoJ spike.
Asia session extended Thursday's slide. Tokyo-hours selling broke the 157.59 overnight low and printed a prior low at 157.19, and the 03:00 UTC BoJ release then spiked price to a 157.12 BoJ low before it reclaimed 157.37. Price sits near the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the 157.90 Asia high, under the 157.50 bounce cap and the 157.62 pre-BoJ high. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is about 17 pips.
Support: 157.188, 157.117
Resistance: 157.50, 157.618, 157.895
What it said to watch
Ueda's 06:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 157.12 BoJ low confirms a lower-low and voids the false break
An M15 close above the 157.62 pre-BoJ high breaks the lower-high sequence; 157.90 Asia high sits above
Failure to hold the 157.19 prior low puts the BoJ low back in play
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side catalyst
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia sell-off · RSI 41 · price 157.557
Lower high at 157.90, flush to 157.19, now consolidating 157.37–157.60.
Softer USD carried the Asia session lower from the 157.90 asia high to a 157.19 session low by 01:00 UTC. The rebound has stalled in a 157.37–157.60 consolidation around the 50% retrace of that sell-off. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41 as the BoJ decision bar opens.
Support: 157.37, 157.19
Resistance: 157.60, 157.75, 157.90
What it said to watch
BoJ statement and Outlook Report at 03:00 UTC, then Ueda's 06:30 UTC presser, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.60 range top, near the 61.8% retrace, exposes the 157.75 breakdown point and then the 157.90 asia high
Failure to hold the 157.37 range low reopens the 157.19 session low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem during NY hours are the next USD-side risk
02:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend, compressing after Asia drop · RSI 38 · price 157.448
Lower highs from 158.13; Asia lower low at 157.19, small higher low at 157.37.
After rejecting 158.13 in NY, USDJPY broke the late-NY prior low near 157.59 during the Asia session and slid from the 157.90 Asia high to 157.19 following mixed Tokyo data. The rebound stalled at the rebound high of 157.55, the 50% fib of the Asia drop. Price is now compressing between the 157.37 higher low and 157.55 into the BoJ, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 157.37, 157.19
Resistance: 157.55, 157.59, 157.90
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (minutes away) and Ueda at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.55 rebound high (50% fib) reopens the 157.59 prior low, then the 157.90 Asia high
Failure to hold the 157.37 higher low exposes the 157.19 Asia low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Asia slide broke the prior low; lower high forming under the 50% fib.
Early Asia session broke the prior low at 157.60 in a 70-pip slide from the 157.90 session high to 157.19. The move came as softer USD and the safe-haven unwind extended. The rebound has capped at the 50% fib near 157.55, and the 157.37 swing low is holding, with RSI(14) near 40 into the BoJ decision.
Support: 157.37, 157.19
Resistance: 157.55, 157.60, 157.90
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (~30 min) and Ueda at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.60 prior low puts price back inside the prior range and negates the break
Failure to hold the 157.37 swing low reopens the 157.19 session low
Reclaim of the 157.90 session high would erase the entire Asia slide
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 42 · price 157.477
Lower highs from 158.13; Asia broke the 157.70 base, bounce capped at 50% retrace.
Asia session cut through the 157.70 breakdown level to a 157.19 session low. The bounce stalled at 157.55, the fib 50% retrace of the move down from the 157.90 Asian high. Lower highs from the 158.13 prior-day high remain intact under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 14 pips just ahead of the BoJ decision.
Support: 157.37, 157.19
Resistance: 157.55, 157.70, 157.895
What it said to watch
BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC and Ueda's press conference at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 157.70 breakdown level would neutralise the Asia selloff, with the lower-highs trendline near 157.85 above
Failure to hold the 157.37 bounce low exposes a retest of the 157.19 session low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk after the BoJ
Asia breakdown below the overnight 157.59 low, lower high at 157.50.
The yen caught a bid early in the Asia session ahead of the BoJ. USD/JPY fell 71 pips from the 157.90 Asian high to a 157.19 session low, breaking the overnight 157.59 prior low. The rebound was rejected at a 157.50 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop, with price capped below the lower-highs line and both EMAs.
Support: 157.19, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.60, 157.90
What it said to watch
BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC (~1h), then Ueda at 06:30 UTC; December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
A break below the 157.19 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.00 round number
An M15 close back above the 157.60 prior low (61.8% fib) negates the breakdown and reopens the 157.90 Asian high
Asia range break lower, lower-high forming under 157.50.
Asia session broke below the 157.60 range floor of the overnight 157.60–157.90 range from 00:30 UTC. The slide ran 70 pips to a 157.19 session low before a bounce capped at 157.50, the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 157.90 range top. Yen firmed after mixed Tokyo data and into the BoJ decision. RSI(14) has recovered to 39 and ATR runs near 13.5 pips.
Support: 157.19, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.60, 157.90
What it said to watch
BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC and Ueda at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 157.60 range floor returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 157.19 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.00 round number
Repeated rejection at the 38.2% fib near 157.50 confirms a lower high
Lower highs since NY high 158.13; Tokyo range break below prior low to 157.19.
Ahead of the BoJ, Tokyo morning rejected the asian high at 157.90. The pair then broke the 157.75 break level and the 157.60 prior low, setting a 157.19 session low, the latest step in a lower-highs sequence from the 158.13 NY high. The bounce has stalled near 157.45 at the 38.2% fib retracement of the drop, with RSI(14) recovering to 36 and ATR(14) at about 14 pips.
Support: 157.19, 157.00
Resistance: 157.60, 157.75, 157.90
What it said to watch
BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC and Ueda's press conference at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the 157.60 prior low, near the 61.8% fib, would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 157.19 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.00 round number
A move through the lower-highs line near 157.86 and the asian high at 157.90 would invalidate the intraday downtrend
Lower highs since 158.13; Asian range low broken, new session low at 157.19.
Rejection at the 157.895 Tokyo high at 00:00 UTC was followed by a break of the 157.59 Asian low and the 157.50 broken low, printing a 157.19 session low into the BoJ. RSI(14) is near 28 and the lower-high chain from 158.13 is intact. The 157.46–157.63 fib zone of the latest leg overlaps the broken low and Asian low.
Support: 157.19, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.59, 157.895
What it said to watch
BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC, followed by Ueda at 06:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A close back above the 157.50 broken low and the 157.59 Asian low would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 157.19 session low confirms another lower-low, with the 157.00 round number next
A close above the 157.895 Tokyo high breaks the lower-high trendline
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low · RSI 34 · price 157.391
Range break lower, lower highs since NY high.
The early Asia session popped to the 157.90 asia high and was rejected. Two bars then broke the 157.50–157.60 floor (broken low / prior low) that had held since late NY, printing a 24h session low at 157.31 ahead of the BoJ. RSI(14) sits near 34, not stretched, and the lower highs from the 158.13 NY high remain intact.
Support: 157.31, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.60, 157.90
What it said to watch
BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC and Ueda at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 157.50 broken low and 157.60 prior low (38.2–50% retracement of the Asia drop) negates the range break
Failure to hold the 157.31 session low exposes the 157.00 round number
M15 close above the lower highs line near the 157.90 asia high breaks the sequence
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low · RSI 38 · price 157.515
Lower highs from 158.13; 157.60 floor broken in early Asia.
Early Asia session broke the 157.59–157.60 prior lows and set a 24h swing low at 157.46 ahead of the BoJ. The mixed Tokyo CPI barely moved the pair. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38, and the lower-high chain runs 158.13 (post-US data) → 157.98 → 157.90 along the descending trendline.
Support: 157.50, 157.458
Resistance: 157.60, 157.714, 157.895
What it said to watch
BoJ decision ~02:30–03:00 UTC and Ueda's 06:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.50 psych and 157.46 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above the 157.60 prior lows would mark the move as a false break
A recovery through the 38.2% fib at 157.71 and the 157.90 lower high would break the descending trendline
00:32 UTC
Mild intraday downtrend, compressing into Asia · RSI 52 · price 157.712
Lower highs from 158.13; Asian range 157.59–157.90.
Asia session is holding a 157.59–157.90 range after Thursday's fade from the 158.13 thu high. Around the Tokyo data, price spiked to 157.895 and was rejected back to the 157.684 spike low. That marks another lower high on the descending trendline, stalling inside the 50–61.8% drop retrace. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR around 9 pips, compressed ahead of the BoJ.
Support: 157.684, 157.592
Resistance: 157.895, 157.982, 158.127
What it said to watch
BoJ decision ~02:30–03:00 UTC and Ueda at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a ~9-pip ATR understates event range
M15 close above the 157.895 lower high breaks the descending trendline and opens the path to the 157.98 late-ny high, then the 158.13 thu high
Failure to hold the 157.684 spike low brings the 157.59 asian low back into play; a break below it extends the lower-low sequence
00:16 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since NY open · RSI 48 · price 157.708
Lower highs from 158.13 pressing a 157.59/60 double low.
Early Asia session: the 00:00 UTC bar spiked to 157.90 after Tokyo CPI and was rejected back to 157.70. That extends the lower-highs sequence from the 158.13 day high, which was set just before the US GDP/PCE drop. Price sits just under EMA20 (~157.74), with the 157.68 spike low and the 157.59/60 double low as the floor of the 24h range.
Support: 157.68, 157.59
Resistance: 157.90, 158.00, 158.13
What it said to watch
BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC, then Ueda at 06:30 UTC. A hold is mostly priced, so any December-hike signal could materially shift this read.
An M15 close above the 157.90 spike high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 158.00 round number back in play.
Failure at the 157.59 double low opens the 157.50 area.
Holding the 157.68 spike low keeps price inside the overnight range.
00:01 UTC
Intraday rebound inside the day range · RSI 63 · price 157.857
Higher lows off 157.59, price at 50% retrace.
Price has climbed off the 157.59 swing low on a run of higher lows and now sits at the 50% retrace of the 158.13 day high to 157.59 leg. The bounce extended after the 23:30 UTC Tokyo CPI window; actuals are not yet in the feed. The Asian range is still forming ahead of the BoJ, with RSI(14) near 63 and not yet stretched.
Support: 157.70, 157.592
Resistance: 157.923, 157.98, 158.127
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.92 fib 61.8 brings the 157.98 breakdown origin of the 20:00 UTC drop and 158.00 into play
Loss of the 157.70 shelf undoes the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.59 swing low
BoJ decision ~03:00 UTC and Ueda at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 158.13 day high is the upper reference