19:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, range since Q3 2026 · RSI 43 · price 157.064
152.90–160.40 range below July 163.99 peak; uptrend line broken.
The advance from the May 2025 low at 142.11 peaked at the 2026 high of 163.99 in July. The late-July collapse broke the uptrend line, and price has since rotated between the range floor at 152.90 and the range cap at 160.40, with 160 rejected again in late August. Price at 157.06 sits mid-range, just above the W1 ema50 near 156.80 and below EMA(20), so the macro filter has flattened rather than trending. The September low held near the 50% retracement of the 2025–26 advance, while BoJ normalisation toward a December hike against a hawkish Fed keeps the rate gap wide and the pair pinned inside the 155–160 band.
Support: 156.80, 155.25, 152.90
Resistance: 158.95, 160.40, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the aug low at 155.25 exposes the range floor at 152.90 and the 50% retracement
- Oct high at 158.95 is the first cap inside the range; a weekly close through it shifts focus back to 160
- Weekly close above the range cap at 160.40 reopens the 2026 high at 163.99; approaches to 160 carry intervention sensitivity
- Sustained trade below the ema50 at 156.80 would turn the macro filter lower for the first time since 2025
- Ueda speech Nov 6, BoJ minutes, US ISM and midterms could shift the BoJ–Fed rate-gap read that is holding the range