22:05 UTC
Uptrend stalled, corrective range since July peak · RSI 49 · price 157.697
Two-way range 152.9–160.4 below the 2026 high, lower highs since July, flat ema50.
The rally from the 142.68 low in June 2025 ran to a rejection at the 163.99 2026 high in late July. Since then the pair has been in a corrective range: the September dip to 152.89 held near the 50% level of the rally fib, and a series of lower highs now caps price at 159.03. Price sits mid-range at 157.70, just above a flattening W1 EMA(50) near 156.57, and RSI near 49 shows no extreme. Carry-driven yen weakness and firm US data keep the pair elevated, while MoF intervention rhetoric above 158 has coincided with supply capping rallies in the 158.50–159.00 area.
Support: 156.57, 155.20, 152.09
Resistance: 159.03, 160.40, 163.99
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 155.20 swing low and the ema50 would expose the base support line drawn from the 152.09 jan low
- A weekly close above the 159.03 lower high and the 160.40 prior cap would reopen the path toward the 163.99 2026 high
- Labor Cash Earnings (Thu) and Ueda's IMF speech (Fri) could materially shift this read via BoJ hike pricing
- MoF intervention risk rises above 158.60, and US midterm results and ISM Services feed the USD leg this week