USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended above range top · RSI 72 · price 158.687
Breakout from Monday's 157.60–158.00 range, higher lows through Tuesday.
USDJPY has climbed from the 157.47 weekly open to a 158.77 week high. Monday's tight 157.60–158.00 range broke at Tuesday's London open, and NY extended the move after JOLTS and Factory Orders both beat, alongside soft JPY on oil and rate gaps. Price is now holding above the 158.60 range top and a rising EMA(20) near 158.35, with RSI(14) near 72 in overbought territory and rising support from the 157.98 ny dip low still intact.
Support: 158.60, 158.30, 157.98
Resistance: 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.60 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of rising support and the 158.30 london high exposes the 50% retrace of Tuesday's impulse near 158.26
Break below the 157.98 ny dip low unwinds Tuesday's higher-low sequence
Close above the 158.77 week high opens the 159.00 round number
US midterm Senate call overnight and MoF intervention rhetoric near the highs could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's 156.96 low; broke above the 158.60 range top.
USD/JPY has climbed about 180 pips off Friday's post-BoJ low at 156.96. Tuesday's London session lifted price through the 158 pivot, and the NY session extended it to a 158.77 week high after the JOLTS and factory orders beats, with firm oil weighing on the yen. Price now holds above the 158.60 range top with RSI(14) near 74, and the 38.2% retracement of the Friday–Tuesday rally sits near 158.08, just above the 158 pivot.
Support: 158.60, 157.98, 157.47
Resistance: 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.60 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158 pivot at 157.98 breaks Tuesday's rising lows and the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 158.77 week high exposes the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric is the main cap
A return below the weekly open at 157.47 would erase the week's gains
US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's 156.96 low; Tuesday range break to new week high.
Since Friday's post-BoJ low at 156.96, the pair has built higher lows, and Tuesday broke Monday's 157.60–158.00 range, with the 158.00 pivot giving way in the London session. The London high at 158.30 then gave way in NY after the JOLTS and factory-orders beats, with firm US data, high oil and wide rate gaps all weighing on the yen. Late NY hours carried price through the 158.60 range top to a 158.77 session high, but RSI(14) is near 74 and price sits well clear of EMA(20).
Support: 158.60, 158.30, 158.00
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 158.60 range top would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the Tuesday higher lows trendline and the 158.30 london high opens a retracement toward the 158.00 pivot, near the 38.2% of the Fri-Tue impulse
Acceptance above the 158.77 session high puts the 159.00 round number in play, where MoF intervention rhetoric is the overhead risk
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight, especially Senate control, could materially shift this read
Wednesday ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) are the next US data tests
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 76 · price 158.702
Higher highs and higher lows since Friday's 156.96 low; breakout above 158.60 range top.
The post-BoJ dip to the Friday low at 156.96 has been fully retraced. Tuesday's leg started at London open from 157.75 and printed higher lows along the way. NY extended it after the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats, with a spike through the 158.60 range top and a fresh week high at 158.77 late in NY hours. RSI(14) near 76 is the most stretched reading of the window, and price sits roughly 45 pips above the ema20 near 158.25.
Support: 158.60, 158.25, 157.98
Resistance: 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.60 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 158.00 pivot (157.98 pullback low) breaks Tuesday's higher lows and the ema20 support
Acceptance above the 158.77 week high opens the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric could intensify
Midterm results from 23:00 UTC and Wed ADP/ISM Services could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into range top · RSI 76 · price 158.642
Higher lows since Friday's 156.96 low; breakout above prior high 158.13.
After Monday held a 157.60–158.00 box, Tuesday's London session lifted the pair off 157.75 and through the prior high at 158.13. The NY session extended the move after a dip to 157.98 held, helped by JOLTS and Factory Orders beats and soft JPY on higher oil. Price now sits at the 158.60–158.65 range top flagged for MoF intervention risk, with RSI(14) overbought near 76 and the London high at 158.30 the first shelf below, sitting just above the 50% retrace of Tuesday's impulse near 158.20.
Support: 158.30, 158.13, 157.98
Resistance: 158.65, 159.00
What it said to watch
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read, especially the Senate call
H1 close back below the 158.13 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break inside the 157.00–158.60 range
Loss of the 157.98 NY dip low breaks the Tuesday rally line and the higher lows sequence
Acceptance above the 158.65 range top opens the 159.00 round number, where MoF rhetoric or rate checks are a two-way risk
Overbought RSI at the range top: a lower RSI high on a retest of 158.65 would mark bearish divergence
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into range top · RSI 71 · price 158.494
Higher lows since Friday low; 158.00 broken and retested.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Friday's 156.96 low and held above the 157.60 Monday low before breaking the 158.00 pivot in Tuesday's London session. The dip to 157.98 into the NY open held as a retest, and the NY leg reached the 158.60 range top on firm US data (JOLTS, factory orders) and higher oil from Iran headlines. RSI(14) sits near 71 with price well above EMA(20) at 158.18, so the move is stretched against the ema20.
Support: 158.18, 158.00, 157.60
Resistance: 158.60, 159.00
What it said to watch
158.60 range top is an area to watch for rejection or break; MoF intervention rhetoric has clustered near this level, with the 159.00 round number above
An H1 close back below the 158.00 pivot would put the breakout in question and reopen the 157.60 monday low
A break of rising support from Friday's low would end the higher-low sequence
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC and Wednesday's ADP / ISM Services could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into range top · RSI 76 · price 158.519
Breakout from Monday range, higher lows through Tuesday.
Friday's dip to 156.96 has fully reversed. Monday held a tight 157.60–158.00 range above the 157.47 weekly open, then Tuesday's London session broke the 158.00 prior high. The NY dip held 157.98, and the JOLTS beat lifted price to a 158.60 week high, the top of the 157.00–158.60 range where MoF intervention warnings cluster. Price is well clear of EMA(20) near 158.15 with RSI(14) overbought near 76, on firm US data and high oil weighing on JPY.
Support: 158.15, 157.98, 157.60
Resistance: 158.60, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.60 week high breaks the range top and brings the 159.00 round number into view, with intervention risk rising as it extends
Break of Tuesday's rising lows and a close back below EMA(20) at 158.15 signals momentum fading at the range top
Failure to hold the 158.00 prior high, which lines up with the fib 38.2% of the Friday rally, puts price back inside Monday's range toward the monday low at 157.60
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC, then Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services, could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after breakout · RSI 71 · price 158.428
Higher lows since Friday's low; Monday range broken.
USDJPY broke above Monday's 157.60–158.00 range during the London session. Beats in JOLTS and Factory Orders then carried it to a 158.60 week high in NY, where supply capped the spike. The 13:00 UTC dip held 157.98, just under the Monday high and close to the 38.2% fib of the 156.96–158.60 leg. Price sits above the Oct 28 prior high at 158.35 and a rising EMA(20) near 158.10, with RSI(14) near 71 after a run of higher lows since Friday's post-BoJ low.
Support: 158.35, 158.00, 157.75
Resistance: 158.60, 159.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 158.00 Monday high returns price to the prior range
Loss of the 157.75 day low breaks the higher-lows trendline and negates the breakout
Acceptance above the 158.60 week high opens the 159.00 round number; MoF intervention rhetoric is active near these levels
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending off 158.00 · RSI 67 · price 158.347
Higher lows since Friday's 156.96 low; 158.00 broken and retested.
USDJPY has climbed steadily from Friday's post-BoJ low at 156.96, with Monday's sessions capped just under the 158.00 round number before the London open today forced a break. The NY-open dip to 157.98 held as a retest, and price is now pressing the fomc high at 158.35. EMA(20) near 158.05 is turning higher and RSI(14) is ~67, still short of overbought, as the ISM beat and Fed hike pricing underpin the dollar while Japan's intervention warnings hang over the 158.60 upper band.
Support: 158.00, 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.00 round number returns price to Monday's range and exposes the monday low at 157.60
Acceptance above the fomc high at 158.35 brings the 158.60 upper band into view, where MoF intervention risk rises
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a split Congress is the USD-supportive outcome
Break of today's rally support line and the week open at 157.47 would retrace most of the rebound fib from 156.96
After the post-BoJ slide to 156.96 on Friday, USD/JPY has printed higher lows from the weekly open at 157.47. Monday's ISM beat lifted the pair back toward 158.00, but it stayed capped beneath that level. London cleared the 158.00 breakout level today and ran to a 158.30 session high, helped by Fed hike pricing and a soft yen. The first hour of NY dipped to 157.98 and recovered, a retest that held, while RSI(14) eased from the high-60s toward 64 with price above both EMAs.
Support: 158.00, 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 158.30, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.00 breakout level would turn the move into a false break and reopen the Monday low at 157.60
Acceptance above the 158.30 session high puts the Oct 28 high at 158.35 and the 158.60 range top in play, where MoF intervention rhetoric has been escalating
Loss of the higher-lows line and the 157.47 weekly open (61.8% of the Friday-Tuesday rally) breaks the recovery structure
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 71 · price 158.251
Higher lows since Friday; Monday range broken higher.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Friday's post-BoJ low at 156.961, and Monday's two caps near the 158.00 round number gave way today. The break started before London open and extended to a 158.30 session high in the London session, as Monday's ISM beat, Fed-hike pricing and Iran headlines firmed the dollar. Price is holding 158.19–158.25 just under Wednesday's 158.346 prior high, with RSI(14) near 71 and EMA(20) rising through 158.00.
Support: 158.00, 157.751, 157.602
Resistance: 158.30, 158.346, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.00 round number and EMA(20) would return price to Monday's 157.60–158.00 range
Loss of the 157.75 higher low and rising support from Friday's 156.96 low ends the higher-low sequence; the Monday low at 157.60 sits near the 50% fib
Acceptance above the 158.35 prior high puts the 158.60 band top in play, where MoF intervention rhetoric is likely to escalate
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday; Monday's 157.60–158.00 range broken higher.
USD/JPY has rebuilt from Friday's post-BoJ 156.96 low with higher lows through Monday. The London session then broke the 157.60–158.00 range that held Monday and printed a 158.30 session high, with Monday's ISM beat and sticky Fed hike pricing keeping the yen soft. Price now holds above the 158.00 round number and EMA(20) near 157.99. RSI(14) is around 73 after five straight up bars, and Wednesday's 158.35 high sits just below the 158.60 range top where MoF intervention rhetoric has been concentrated.
Support: 158.00, 157.75, 157.60
Resistance: 158.30, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 158.00 round number returns price to Monday's range and would mark today's move as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.75 Asian low breaks the higher-low trendline; that level sits close to the 38.2% retracement of the rebound fib
Acceptance above the 158.35 Wed high leaves the 158.60 range top exposed, where intervention risk escalates; a slide back under the Monday low at 157.60 would undo the week's rebound
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend from Friday's low, testing range top · RSI 68 · price 158.176
Higher lows each session since Friday; London broke above Monday high.
USDJPY has climbed steadily from Friday's post-BoJ low at 156.96, printing higher lows in the Sunday open, Monday and Tuesday sessions as Monday's ISM Manufacturing beat revived Fed-hike bets. After a tight Asian range, London open pushed through the Monday high at 158.00 to a 158.20 session high, the highest since the Oct 28 high at 158.35. RSI(14) near 68 is approaching overbought, while the H1 EMA20 near 157.95 sits just under the broken 158.00 level.
Support: 158.00, 157.95, 157.751
Resistance: 158.201, 158.346, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.00 Monday high would mark the London breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.75 Tuesday low breaks the higher-low trendline and the uptrend read
Clearance of the 158.35 Oct 28 high puts the 158.60 range top in view, where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped the pair
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC today, then US midterm results Wed morning, could materially shift this read
Since Sunday's 157.47 weekly open, USD/JPY has printed higher lows at the 157.60 Monday low and the 157.75 swing low. Monday's ISM beat produced a tag of 158.00, and the pair then held a tight 157.77–157.96 range through Asia. The London session pushed price through that range top to 158.15, retracing more than 78.6% of the Wed-Fri drop from 158.35 to the 156.96 post-BoJ low, with RSI(14) near 67. Katayama's warning on disorderly moves keeps the 158.35 Wed high and the 158.60 intervention zone as the overhead references.
Support: 158.00, 157.75, 157.60
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.00 range top would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.75 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.60 Monday low
Acceptance above the 158.35 Wed high brings the 158.60 intervention zone into play, where MoF rhetoric has capped prior advances
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today could shift this read, as could midterm results due Wednesday
09:02 UTC
Recovering from post-BoJ low, stalling at 158.00 · RSI 59 · price 157.995
Higher lows compressing beneath a flat 158.00 cap.
USD/JPY has climbed from Friday's 156.96 post-BoJ low since the weekly open at 157.47, then spent Monday and Tuesday's Asia session pressed beneath the 158.00 round number, which capped five tests including the ISM-driven bounce in Monday's NY session. Higher lows at 157.60 (Monday low), 157.63 and 157.75 trace a rising support line. Price holds above EMA(20) near 157.89 with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR contracting, while Katayama's intervention warnings keep supply at 158.00 even as the yen fails to gain on hawkish BoJ news.
Support: 157.751, 157.602, 157.469
Resistance: 158.00, 158.346
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the cap and opens the prior high at 158.35
Break of the 157.75 higher low and the rising support line undoes the compression; Monday low at 157.60, near the 38.2% of the post-BoJ rally, is next
Loss of the weekly open at 157.47 returns price to Friday's post-BoJ range
JOLTS today 15:00 UTC, midterm results Wed morning and ADP Wed could materially shift USD; escalation in MoF rhetoric near 158.00 raises snapback risk
08:02 UTC
Recovery from post-BoJ low, stalling under 158.00 · RSI 49 · price 157.87
Rising lows under a flat 158.00 cap; tight Asian range.
Friday's BoJ hold produced a dip to the 156.96 swing low, and since Monday's weekly open at 157.47 the pair has climbed on rising lows. Monday's ISM beat lifted it off the 157.60 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the 156.96–158.00 leg. Three attempts at the 158 cap have stalled as Katayama's intervention warnings weigh. Tuesday's Asian session has compressed into a 157.75–157.97 range, with price flat on EMA(20) near 157.86 and RSI(14) at a neutral 49.
Support: 157.75, 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158 cap opens the path toward the 158.35 prior high from Oct 28, where intervention rhetoric is the main risk
Break below the 157.75 asian low puts the higher-lows trendline and the 157.60 swing low in play
Loss of the 157.47 weekly open, the 50% retracement, erases the week's recovery
JOLTS (Tue 15:00 UTC) and the overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
Tight range 157.60–158.00 after rebound from post-BoJ low.
USD/JPY has retraced most of Friday's post-BoJ slide to 156.96, but the recovery has stalled at the 158.00 week high, which capped two attempts on Monday during Asia and London hours. The NY dip to 157.63 was bought after the ISM manufacturing beat, while MoF intervention rhetoric kept a lid on the topside. Tuesday's Asian range of 157.79–157.97 has compressed price just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) flat near 48 and the Asian low at 157.79 now being tested.
Support: 157.79, 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 week high breaks the range and opens the path to the 158.35 prior high from Oct 28
Loss of the 157.60 Monday low, also the 38.2% recovery fib, exposes the 157.47 weekly open
Break below the 157.79 Asian low shifts the read to a pullback within the range
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in Katayama/MoF FX language near 158.00 would reinforce the cap
USD/JPY has retraced about 64% of the drop from the post-Fed high at 158.35 to Friday's post-BoJ low at 156.96. Since the week open at 157.47 it has printed higher lows at 157.60 (the Monday low) and 157.63, where the ISM Manufacturing beat lifted the pair in NY, but the 158.00 round number rejected two tests on Monday as Katayama's intervention warnings capped the move. Tuesday's Asian session has compressed into a 157.79–157.95 band, with price sitting fractionally under EMA(20) and RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 157.79, 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the cap; the 78.6% fib near 158.05 and the 158.35 fed high sit above
Loss of the 157.79 asian low and the week higher-lows trendline exposes the 157.60 monday low
A break below the 157.47 week open unwinds this week's recovery structure
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF/Katayama language near 158.00 could trigger sharp yen moves
05:02 UTC
Recovery stalling under 158.00 · RSI 54 · price 157.892
Higher lows off 156.96, tight range capped below 158.00.
USDJPY has retraced more than 61.8% of last week's drop from the 158.35 FOMC high to the 156.96 BoJ low. The leg came from the 157.47 weekly open through Asia and early London on Monday to 157.998, and dips held at the 157.60 Monday low and again near 157.63 into the ISM beat during NY hours. Since then price has compressed in a 157.80–157.97 band beneath the 158.00 cap, sitting on EMA(20) near 157.88 with RSI(14) flat around 54 and ATR down to ~11 pips, consistent with the digest's read of Fed-hike bets offset by Katayama's intervention warnings.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 cap breaks Monday's high and exposes the 158.35 FOMC high
Failure to hold the 157.60 Monday low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 157.47 weekly open back in play
Loss of the weekly open reopens the 156.96 BoJ low
US midterm results through Asia/Europe and JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF language near 158.00 would reinforce the cap
Higher lows since 156.96, compressing under 158 cap.
After rejection from the FOMC high at 158.35 on Wednesday, the pair slid to the Friday low at 156.96, then rebuilt from the weekly open at 157.47 with higher lows at 157.60 (Monday low, the 38.2% retracement of the rebound) and 157.63 at the NY open before the ISM beat lifted it. Two Monday tests of the 158 cap, in Asia and London, were turned back, and Tuesday's Asian range has compressed to 157.86–157.97 with price flat on EMA(20) and RSI(14) drifting near 55. Katayama's intervention warnings have kept a lid near the 158.60 band, while the dollar leg holds up on Fed-hike pricing.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
US midterm results from ~05:00 UTC could materially shift this read; an upset would likely widen the hourly range
H1 close above the 158 cap opens the path to the FOMC high at 158.35, with the 158.60 band as the intervention-risk ceiling
Break of rising support and the Monday low at 157.60 would end the higher-low sequence and expose the weekly open at 157.47
Loss of the weekly open puts the Friday low at 156.96 back in focus
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalysts
03:02 UTC
Rebound from Friday low, stalling under 158.00 · RSI 54 · price 157.892
Higher lows off 156.96, compressing in 157.60–158.00 range.
The recovery from Friday's 156.96 low has printed higher lows since the weekly open at 157.47, but it has stalled under the 158.00 Monday high. That cap held twice during the London session, and the NY dip to 157.63 found demand on the US ISM beat, leaving price in a 157.60–158.00 range that has retraced about two-thirds of the decline from the FOMC high. Price is hugging EMA(20), RSI(14) is flat near 54 and ATR has compressed to roughly 13 pips through the Asia session, with Katayama's intervention warnings framing the 158.00 lid.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 monday high breaks the range and exposes the 158.35 fomc high, where MoF intervention rhetoric is the counterweight
Failure to hold the 157.60 monday low breaks the higher-lows line and brings the 157.47 weekly open into play
Acceptance below the weekly open puts the bounce from the 156.96 friday low at risk of fully retracing
US midterm results from Tue and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Qeshm strike headlines adding two-way USD risk
02:01 UTC
Recovery from BoJ low, stalling under 158.00 · RSI 54 · price 157.894
Higher lows since Friday, flat cap at 158.00 below lower highs.
USDJPY has climbed from Friday's 156.96 boj low, which came after the BoJ held and left December ambiguous, and has printed higher lows at 157.60 and the 157.63 monday low, the second on the post-ISM dip in NY hours. The rebound stalled at 157.998 during Monday's London session, and price is now compressing just under psych 158 in a tight Asian range, sitting on a flat EMA(20) above the EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 54. The pair has retraced about two-thirds of the fomc-boj drop, so the 158.35 fomc high and the lower-highs line from it remain the overhead reference.
Support: 157.63, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above psych 158 and the lower-highs line would break the cap that has held since Wednesday's fomc high at 158.35
Failure to hold the 157.63 monday low and the higher-lows line exposes the 157.47 weekly open
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Katayama or MoF intervention rhetoric as price nears the 158.35 fomc high could cap extensions
Since the 157.47 weekly open the pair has built higher lows at 157.60 in London and 157.63 into the NY session, where the US ISM manufacturing beat triggered the rebound while the yen sat out the broad dollar slide. The 158.00 week high has seen rejection three times across Asia and London on Monday, and price is compressing just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) holding the high 50s. The move has already reclaimed the 61.8% retracement of last week's 158.35–156.96 decline, leaving the 158.13 lower high and 158.35 prior wk high as the next structure overhead.
Support: 157.63, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 week high breaks the rejection pattern and exposes the 158.13 lower high, then 158.35
Break of the rising lows line and the 157.63 higher low turns the read back toward the 157.47 weekly open
Failure of the 157.47 weekly open would re-open the 156.96 prior wk low
US midterm results overnight and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Any escalation in Tokyo intervention rhetoric near 158.00 is a two-way volatility risk
Higher lows since Friday beneath a lower-highs line from the FOMC high.
USDJPY has retraced about 70% of the drop from Wednesday's FOMC high at 158.35 to Friday's post-BoJ low at 156.96. Since the week opened at 157.47 in the Asia session it has held a 157.60–158.00 band, with the Monday low at 157.60 sitting near the 50% retracement. The ISM beat during NY hours lifted the pair off 157.63, and the yen lagged even as the broad USD softened. Price now sits above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near mid-50s, building higher lows from Friday while pressing into the lower-highs line just under the 158.00 Monday high.
Support: 157.87, 157.60, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.00 Monday high and the lower-highs line opens the 158.35 FOMC high, with the 158.60 range top beyond
Failure to hold the 157.60 Monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 156.96 Friday low back in view
Sustained trade below ema20 at 157.87 would signal the Monday band is reasserting
US midterm results overnight Tue into Wed, plus JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC Tue, could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF/Katayama rhetoric near 158.00+ could cap the upper end of the band