Higher lows off 156.96 against lower highs from 158.35.
USD/JPY has retraced most of Friday's BoJ-day slide to the 156.96 week low, rallying through Monday's Asia and London sessions as the yen underperformed despite a softer dollar. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 56, but Monday's high stalled at the 158.00 round number, just under a line of lower highs running from Wednesday's 158.35 FOMC high through the 158.13 Thursday high. The NY-open dip to 157.63 was bought back after the ISM beat, keeping the rising support line from the week low intact above the 157.60 Monday low.
Support: 157.86, 157.60, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number and the lower-highs line breaks the sequence and opens 158.13 Thursday high, then 158.35 FOMC high
Price is holding above the 61.8% retracement (~157.82) of the FOMC high to week low drop; a slip back under EMA(20) at 157.86 puts that level in play
Failure to hold the 157.60 Monday low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 156.96 week low
US midterm results overnight Nov 3-4, with JOLTS at 15:00 UTC Tuesday, could materially shift this read
Japanese intervention rhetoric near the upper end of the 157.00-158.60 band could cap the range top
Higher lows since Monday open, capped under 158.00.
After Friday's post-BoJ slide to the 156.96 friday low, the pair has recovered steadily from the 157.47 weekly open through Monday's sessions. It is now holding above the 61.8% retracement of the drop from Wednesday's FOMC high, despite a softer dollar on lower oil and yields. Monday higher lows at 157.60 and 157.63 sit beneath a flat range top at 158.00, which capped the London high at 157.998, while EMA(20) near 157.86 has absorbed each pullback and RSI(14) is holding in the high 50s.
Support: 157.63, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 range top breaks the 157.00–158.00 band and opens the 158.35 FOMC high
Failure to hold the 157.63 Monday low breaks the Monday higher-lows sequence and exposes the 157.47 weekly open
Rejection again at 158.00 alongside RSI(14) slipping under 50 would point back toward the range midpoint
US midterm results overnight into Wednesday and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break below the 156.96 Friday low would invalidate the range read entirely
21:02 UTC
Range-bound, recovering toward range top · RSI 57 · price 157.938
Higher lows since weekly open beneath the 158.00 range top.
Since the weekly open at 157.47, USD/JPY has climbed off Friday's post-BoJ swing low at 156.96. Monday's sessions printed higher lows at 157.60 and 157.63, and price is holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) even as the USD softened on oil and yields. Pushes into the 158.00 range top met rejection in Asia and again in London, leaving price inside the 61.8–78.6% retracement of the post-FOMC drop from the 158.35 week high, with RSI(14) flattening near 57.
Support: 157.63, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 range top opens Thursday's prior high at 158.13 and the 158.35 week high
Break of the 157.63 higher low undercuts Monday's higher lows; the weekly open at 157.47 is next
Loss of the 156.96 swing low would break the 157.00 range floor
US midterms Tuesday, with JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
USD/JPY has retraced about two-thirds of the Fed-to-BoJ leg from the 158.35 Fed high to the 156.96 Friday low. Most of Monday's gain came in the Asia session off the 157.47 weekly open. Since the London open, supply has capped price three times just below the 158.00 Monday high. NY-session dips into the mixed ISM data held a line of higher lows at 157.60–157.63. Price sits just above EMA(20) at 157.80, with RSI(14) flat near 54. The yen stayed soft despite the hawkish BoJ hold, offsetting broad USD weakness.
Support: 157.80, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 Monday high opens the path to the 158.35 Fed high
Break of the higher-lows line and 157.63 exposes the 157.47 weekly open
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 157.80 would signal the recovery leg is stalling
US midterm results overnight Tuesday could materially shift this read; a USD-negative outcome puts the 156.96 Friday low back in focus
JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC is a secondary catalyst for the range edges
Higher lows since Friday, Monday range 157.60–158.00.
Since Friday's 156.96 post-BoJ low, USDJPY has built higher lows. The Asia session lifted price off the 157.47 week open, and the London low at 157.60 held near the 38.2% retracement of that recovery. The 158.00 round number has capped three Monday attempts, including after the mixed ISM data in the NY session. Price is holding just above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 56, inside the 157–158 band flagged in the macro digest.
Support: 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number opens the 158.35 fomc high from last week's spike
Loss of the 157.60 london low breaks Monday's higher-low line and exposes the 157.47 week open
US midterm results flowing overnight into Asia on Wednesday could materially shift this read
JOLTS on Tuesday at 15:00 UTC is the next data test for the range edges
Lower highs since Wednesday, higher lows since Friday; 157.60–158.00 day range.
Monday has recovered from Friday's 156.96 post-BoJ low. It opened the week at 157.47 and has held a range between the 157.60 day low and the 158.00 day high, with both the London-open dip and the early-NY dip finding demand above 157.60. The NY dip to 157.63 was bought after the ISM manufacturing beat. Price now sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday FOMC high to Friday low drop near 157.82, just above EMA(20), with RSI(14) flat near 50. Lower highs from the 158.35 FOMC high and the 158.13 Thursday high are compressing against higher lows off Friday's base.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 day high and the lower-highs line opens the 158.13 Thursday high and the 158.35 FOMC high
Failure to hold the 157.60 day low and the higher-lows line exposes the 157.47 weekly open, then the 156.96 Friday low
US midterms Tue (results overnight) and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in Katayama's intervention rhetoric is a tail risk on any push through the 158.35 FOMC high
17:02 UTC
Recovery from Friday low, stalling under 158.00 · RSI 51 · price 157.831
Higher lows since Friday, Monday range 157.60-158.00.
Monday's Asia session carried the pair from the 157.47 weekly open to the 158.00 Monday high. That move extended the recovery from Friday's post-BoJ 156.96 low, and 158.00 has since capped attempts in both Asia and London. Dips held at the 157.60 Monday low (38.2% of the Fri-Mon fib) at London open and at 157.63 into NY before the ISM Manufacturing beat lifted price back above EMA(20), with RSI(14) flat near 50 inside a 40-pip range.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 Monday high breaks the cap and opens the 158.35 fomc spike from Wednesday
Loss of the 157.60 Monday low breaks the Monday higher-lows line and exposes the 157.47 weekly open
US midterms Tue with results overnight into Wed could test the 156.96 Friday low or the 158.00 cap
JOLTS and Factory Orders Tue 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled US data risk
Monday higher lows pressing into a lower-high sequence below 158.00.
USD/JPY has retraced about two-thirds of the fomc high to friday low drop, which ran from 158.35 to 156.96 after the BoJ hold. Monday's Asia and early London rally from the 157.47 weekly open met rejection just under the 158.00 round number. Dips held at the 157.60 monday low and again at 157.63, forming Monday higher lows, and the ISM beat lifted price back above ema20 (157.77) in the first hour of NY with RSI(14) near 53. Lower highs from the fomc high still cap the range.
Support: 157.77, 157.60, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number and the lower-highs trendline opens the 158.13 prior high, then the 158.35 fomc high
Failure to hold the 157.60 monday low breaks the Monday higher lows and exposes the 157.47 weekly open, then the 156.96 friday low
Loss of ema20 at 157.77 on a closing basis returns price to mid-range chop
US midterms Tue Nov 3, results overnight, could materially shift this read
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC today and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC are near-term USD catalysts
157.00–158.35 range; Monday rebound capped at 158.00, now retracing.
The week's dominant leg came after Friday's BoJ hold, when the pair slid through Asia and London to the 156.96 Friday low before NY recovered part of the loss. Monday's rebound from the 157.47 weekly open stalled twice at the 158.00 Monday high, in Asia and again in London, extending the run of lower highs from the 158.35 FOMC high. Into the ISM hour price has slipped back below EMA(20) near 157.73 and is testing the 157.60 Monday low, which aligns with the 38.2% of the rebound fib, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s as a soft USD keeps the pair inside its 157–158 band.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 157.73, 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.60 monday low exposes the 157.47 weekly open (50% of the rebound fib)
Recovery above EMA(20) and an H1 close through the 158.00 monday high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 158.35 fomc high back in play
ISM Mfg PMI (15:00 UTC) and Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) could materially shift this read; a sub-53 print fits the move toward the friday low at 156.96
US midterms Tue: a USD-negative outcome tests the 157.00 range floor, while Katayama intervention rhetoric remains a tail risk near range highs
Higher lows from 156.96 inside a 156.96–158.35 range, capped by lower highs.
USD/JPY has recovered from Friday's 156.96 low, set after the BoJ's non-committal hold. It climbed from the 157.47 weekly open and pushed to 158.00 in the London session, where it met rejection near the 61.8% retrace of the 158.35–156.96 slide. Price sits above EMA(20) (~157.76) and EMA(50) (~157.71) with RSI(14) near 57. The lower-highs line from the FOMC high still caps, while the Monday low at 157.60 marks the latest higher low on the rebound-lows trendline.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.00 monday high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 158.35 fomc high
Failure to hold the 157.60 monday low and the rebound-lows trendline returns focus to the 157.47 weekly open and the 156.96 friday low
US midterms Tuesday are a range-exit risk for the 157.00–158.35 band
13:02 UTC
Recovery inside a range, capped at 158.00 · RSI 59 · price 157.882
Higher lows off 156.96 under lower highs from 158.35.
USD/JPY has retraced most of the FOMC-BoJ drop. The slide ran from the 158.35 week high on Wednesday's less-hawkish Fed spike to the 156.96 Friday low after the BoJ hold, and the recovery trendline has set higher lows since. Monday's Asia session lifted the pair from the 157.47 weekly open back above EMA(20) near 157.76 and EMA(50) near 157.70. Demand stepped in at the London low of 157.60, but three tests of the 158.00 round number stalled, leaving price between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the lower highs line and opens the 158.35 week high
Loss of the 157.60 London low and the recovery trendline puts the 157.47 weekly open, then the 156.96 Friday low, back in focus
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Katayama intervention rhetoric continues to cap the topside near 158.00
Tuesday's US midterms are the next binary for the 157.00–158.00 range
12:02 UTC
Range-bound, recovering toward range top · RSI 64 · price 157.942
Higher low at 157.60 vs Friday 156.96; lower highs from 158.35 intact.
USD/JPY has retraced roughly 70% of the Wednesday–Friday decline from the 158.35 week high, which printed after the Fed update, to the 156.96 Friday low reached after the BoJ hold. The yen underperformed in Monday's Asia session despite a softer USD. Demand absorbed the London-open dip at the 157.60 Monday low, and price is holding above the ema20 near 157.77 and the EMA(50). The 158.00 round number has capped two attempts today and sits on the line of lower highs from Wednesday, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 157.77, 157.60, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 158.35 week high
A move back below the ema20 at 157.77 and the 157.60 Monday low would break the higher-low sequence off the Friday low
ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
US midterms Tuesday are a range-break risk toward 156.96 or 158.35
Higher lows off 156.96, retesting 158.00 range top.
USDJPY has retraced most of the Wednesday-to-Friday slide from 158.35 to 156.96, printing higher lows since Friday's post-BoJ low. Demand stepped in at the 157.60 swing low in early London today and lifted price back to the 158.00 range top, above the 61.8% retracement at 157.82. Price holds above the EMA(20), which has just crossed over the EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 58 and not stretched. The yen is underperforming despite a softer dollar on Iran-diplomacy hopes, while Tokyo's intervention rhetoric hangs over the top of the range.
Support: 157.74, 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 range top opens the path to Thursday's 158.13 prior high and the 158.35 week high
Rejection at 158.00 followed by a break of the ema20 near 157.74 puts the 157.60 swing low and the higher-low trendline back in play
Loss of the 157.47 weekly open breaks the higher-low sequence and refocuses Friday's 156.96 low
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding toward range top · RSI 62 · price 157.939
156.96–158.35 range, higher lows since Friday.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 156.96–158.35 band since Wednesday's post-Fed wed high, and Friday's post-BoJ slide to the friday low has been fully retraced as the yen stays soft despite Katayama's intervention talk. Monday's Asia session lifted price from the weekly open at 157.47 to just under the 158.00 round number. A pre-London dip to the london low at 157.60 reversed in the first hour of London, leaving price above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 62 and beyond the 61.8% fib of the Wednesday–Friday decline.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number opens the wed high at 158.35, where intervention rhetoric has capped the range
Failure to hold the london low at 157.60 and the higher-low line puts the weekly open at 157.47 back in play
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read; a break of the friday low at 156.96 would end the range read
Higher lows from 156.96, capped under 158.00 below the 158.35 high.
USD/JPY held a 157.60–158.35 box from Tuesday to Thursday, and the post-Fed spike to the 158.35 Fed high was rejected. Friday's BoJ-day selloff then extended to the 156.96 Friday low in early NY trade. A hawkish hold that bought the yen little let Asia rebuild a rally from the 157.47 weekly open to a 157.99 Monday high, which stalled just under 158.00. London has since pulled price back onto the converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 157.66 and the 38.2% fib at 157.60, with RSI(14) cooled to about 52.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 157.99, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.47 weekly open (50% retrace) breaks the higher-low trendline from Friday's low
H1 close above the 157.99 Monday high reopens the 158.35 Fed high, where intervention rhetoric has capped the pair
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (Prices Paid f/c 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 156.96 Friday low would signal hawkish BoJ pricing reasserting
Back inside the Tue–Thu 157.60–158.05 range after Friday's false break; higher lows since the week low, Monday's push capped under 158.00.
USD/JPY held a 157.60–158.05 box from Tuesday to Thursday, and Wednesday's FOMC spike to the 158.35 fomc high fully reversed. Friday's post-BoJ slide broke the range low to a 156.96 week low, but the yen gave the gains back as the hold was read as non-committal on December timing. Monday's Asia session rallied off the 157.47 weekly open and stalled at a 157.99 asia high just under 158.00, leaving price marginally above the ema20 near 157.67 into London open, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 157.67, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 157.99, 158.35
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 157.99 asia high opens a retest of the 158.35 fomc high
Failure to hold the ema20 near 157.67 and the 157.47 weekly open would put Friday's breakdown back in play
Loss of the recovery line and the 61.8% recovery fib near 157.36 puts the 156.96 week low back in focus
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC today (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Tuesday's US midterms and Thursday's Japan wage data are event risk for the range
Friday break below the 157.60 range floor reversed; higher lows since 156.96.
The pair spent Tuesday to Thursday in a 157.60–158.35 range, with the week high set on Wednesday's post-FOMC spike. After the BoJ held on Friday, it broke the floor and reached a 156.96 Friday low near the London-NY transition, then recovered into the close as Ueda stayed vague on December timing. That leaves the break looking like a false break. Monday's Asia session extended the rebound from the 157.47 weekly open to a 157.99 session high, and price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the 158.35–156.96 drop, above a rising EMA(20) near 157.65, with RSI(14) at 62.
Support: 157.65, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 157.99, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.99 session high exposes the 158.13 Thu high and the 158.35 week high
Failure to hold the EMA20 at 157.65 puts the 157.47 weekly open back in play
A return below the 156.96 Friday low invalidates the false-break read
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Rebound from Friday low, stalling under 158.00 · RSI 56 · price 157.75
Higher lows off 156.96, back inside old 157.60–158.00 range.
The post-BoJ slide bottomed at the 156.96 week low during Friday's London session. Since then the pair has printed higher lows, and Monday's Asia session extended the rebound to 157.99 as the yen stays soft despite Katayama's FX warning. Price has re-entered the Tuesday–Thursday 157.60–158.00 range and sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the post-Fed decline from the 158.35 week high. The monday high was rejected just under the 158.00 psych level, leaving price barely above the converged ema20/EMA(50) near 157.65, with RSI(14) easing to ~56.
Support: 157.65, 157.46, 156.96
Resistance: 157.99, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.99 monday high and 158.00 reopens the 158.35 week high printed after the Fed
Loss of the ema20 at 157.65 and the 157.46 weekly open breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 156.96 week low
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) could materially shift this read
Tuesday's US midterms add event risk to the range read
Higher lows since Friday's 156.96 swing low, still under Wednesday's lower-highs line.
Wednesday's spike to the 158.35 week high reversed within the hour. Friday's post-BoJ selloff broke the 157.60–158.35 range to a 156.96 swing low during London hours, then recovered into the NY session as Ueda's vague timing faded the yen bid. Monday's Asia session extended the rebound from the 157.47 weekly open on rising support, but the 157.99 Monday high saw rejection just under 158.00, close to the 61.8% retracement of the drop. Price holds above EMA(20) near 157.60 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 157.99, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.99 Monday high and the lower highs line opens the 158.13 Thu high and 158.35 week high
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 157.60 and rising support exposes the 157.47 weekly open
A break below the 156.96 swing low would mark a lower-low and void the drop retrace read
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Firmer MoF/Katayama FX language would challenge the yen-soft rebound
04:02 UTC
Recovering from Friday low, back inside the range · RSI 58 · price 157.892
Rebound into the 157.6–158.0 range below lower highs.
USD/JPY has retraced most of Friday's post-BoJ slide to the 156.96 week low, set during London hours, as the yen faded on Ueda's vague timing guidance. Monday's Asia session lifted price from the 157.47 weekly open through the friday high at 157.64 and back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), both converging near 157.63. The move has stalled just under the 157.98 range cap from Tuesday–Thursday, beneath a lower-highs line off the 158.35 FOMC high, with price near the 61.8% fib of that drop and RSI(14) near 58, mid-range rather than stretched.
Support: 157.64, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 157.98, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.98 range cap and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 158.35 FOMC high
Failure to hold the 157.64 friday high and the EMA cluster puts the 157.47 weekly open back in play
Loss of the weekly open exposes Friday's 156.96 week low
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC today, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Rising lows from Friday's 156.96 weekly low; back inside the 157.60–158.00 range.
Tuesday to Thursday held a 157.60–158.00 range. Wednesday's FOMC spike to the 158.35 fomc high was rejected, and Friday's post-BoJ break lower bottomed at the 156.96 weekly low into the NY open. Rising lows since then carried price through Friday NY and Monday's Asia session, from just above the 157.47 weekly open to above the 61.8% fib at 157.82. Price is back above a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) pair near 157.60, the Asia session high sits at 157.98 under the 158.00 round number, and RSI(14) is near 61. The yen remains soft after the BoJ's vague hold and Katayama's 'neither good nor bad' FX comments, which outweighs a USD softened by Middle East diplomacy.
Support: 157.82, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.00 round number and the 158.13 prior high opens the path back to the 158.35 fomc high
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 157.82, then a close below the 157.47 weekly open, would put the rising lows trendline and the 156.96 weekly low back in focus
US ISM Mfg PMI (f/c 54.6) and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
A fast push toward 158.35 risks sharper MoF/Katayama intervention language, which has capped spikes before
Higher lows off 156.96, retesting the broken 157.80 range floor.
The pair was rejected at the 158.35 FOMC high on Wednesday and printed a lower high near 158.13 on Thursday. It then broke the 157.80 range floor on Friday as falling US yields and the hawkish BoJ hold weighed, with the post-BoJ low at 157.12 giving way to a 156.96 prior wk low during the London-NY transition. Since then the chart has carved higher lows, and the Asia session has lifted price from the 157.47 weekly open to a 157.84 Asia high. That puts it back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and right on the 61.8% retracement of the FOMC-to-low drop, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 157.47, 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.84, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 closes above the 157.84 Asia high and the 61.8% retracement open the path to the 158.13 lower high, then the 158.35 FOMC high
A drop back below the 157.47 weekly open and the higher-lows trendline would expose the 157.12 post-BoJ low and the 156.96 prior wk low
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read through the yield channel
Tuesday's US midterm results and any escalation in MoF language beyond 'disorderly moves' are two-way risks to the rebound
01:02 UTC
Corrective rebound inside a downswing from the midweek high · RSI 62 · price 157.765
Lower highs from 158.35; rebound testing the 61.8% retrace.
USD/JPY set lower highs at Wednesday's 158.35 FOMC high and Thursday's 158.13 post-GDP lower high. Friday's slide after the BoJ's hawkish hold cut through the 157.12 post-BoJ low during London hours and bottomed at the 156.96 Friday low. NY buyers then lifted price back to 157.53, and Monday's Asia session has extended from the 157.47 weekly open to the 61.8% fib near 157.82 and the lower-highs trendline, with price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 157.47, 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.82, 158.13, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 157.82 and the lower-highs trendline opens a retest of the 158.13 lower high; above the 158.35 FOMC high the lower-high sequence is void
Failure to hold the 157.47 weekly open, where EMA(20) also sits, shifts focus back to the 157.12 post-BoJ low and the 156.96 Friday low
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC, NY session) could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend from Wednesday high, rebound under way · RSI 59 · price 157.667
Lower highs from 158.35; higher lows since Friday's 156.96 low.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the post-FOMC spike to 158.35 on Wednesday faded. Friday's hawkish BoJ hold and softer US yields then drove the slide to a 156.96 week low into the NY session. Since then the pair has built a higher low at 157.12 and opened the week at 157.47, filling the small Sunday gap and reclaiming EMA(20) and a nearby EMA(50) to sit at the 50% retracement of the slide near 157.65. RSI(14) has recovered to ~59 from the low 30s, with the 157.74 lower high the first cap overhead.
Support: 157.47, 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.74, 157.90, 158.13
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 157.74 lower high exposes the 157.90 fri high and the 61.8% retracement near 157.82
Acceptance above the 158.13 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence from Wednesday
Close back below the 157.47 weekly open undercuts the rebound; loss of the 157.12 higher low reopens the 156.96 week low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC), then Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read