22:03 UTC
Sideways after September recovery, highs edging lower · RSI 45 · price 157.693
Six-week range 156.1–159.0 with a lower-highs sequence since the Sept high.
The early-September slide from the 160.39 aug-sep top to the 152.89 sept low was fully repaired by the 159.03 sept high on Sep 24. Price has range-traded for six weeks since then, with the Oct 14 and oct 28 high pivots capping progressively lower. The oct low at 156.08 held just above the 50% retracement of the Sept rally. Last week the BoJ's hawkish hold failed to lift the yen while a softer USD into the midterms kept a lid on rallies. Price is sitting just below a flat EMA(20) and marginally above a flattening EMA(50), with RSI in the mid-40s.
Support: 156.96, 156.08, 152.89
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 156.96 friday low exposes the 156.08 oct low and the rising support line from the sept low
- Close above 159.03 sept high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range, opening the 160.39 aug-sep top where intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify
- US midterms Tue and Ueda speech Fri (December-hike guidance) could materially shift this read
- Japan Labor Cash Earnings Thu (f/c 3.8%) is a catalyst for a break of either range edge