Monday held a 157.60–158.00 range. London swept the Asian low to the 157.60 London low before reclaiming it, NY's dip to 157.63 reversed on the US ISM beat, and supply capped every push at the 158.00 day high. Since then price has stepped up along a rising trendline from the 157.78 swing low and is drifting just under the 157.97 recent high in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 157.864, 157.775, 157.602
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 day high breaks the range top; the 158.60 band top is the next reference, where MoF intervention rhetoric typically escalates
Loss of the rising trendline and the 157.864 rollover low turns focus back to the 157.775 swing low
Break below the 157.602 London low invalidates the range read
US midterm results overnight and JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since NY low · RSI 53 · price 157.906
24h range 157.60–158.00, compressing under the top.
Monday held a 157.60–158.00 range. London's dip and the NY-open selloff, as USD slipped with oil, both found demand near the day low (157.60/157.63), while supply capped the day high just under 158.00. Since the NY low, a rising trendline of higher lows has squeezed price beneath the session high at 157.97. Early Asia trade after rollover is thin, and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 157.846, 157.775, 157.602
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 day high breaks the 24h range top
Loss of the rising trendline and the 157.85 swing low reopens the 157.78 late ny low
US midterm results overnight and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention rhetoric sits near 158
23:16 UTC
Sideways, rising lows under a flat cap · RSI 55 · price 157.943
Compression below 158.00; NY lows stepping higher.
Monday's tops were rejected at 157.95–158.00 in Asia, London (session high 157.998) and NY, while NY lows stepped up from 157.631 to 157.775 and 157.818, compressing price under the round number. The yen stayed soft despite the weaker USD, and early Asia has pushed back to 157.94 from the thin rollover low at 157.864. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 5.5 pips.
Support: 157.864, 157.775, 157.631
Resistance: 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 session high and the 158.00 round number breaks the day's cap; intervention headlines near that level could produce a sharp rejection
Loss of the rising-lows line and the 157.864 rollover low turns the read back to range; a close below the 157.775 NY swing low exposes the 157.631 NY low
US midterm results overnight Nov 3-4 could materially shift this read
157.60–158.00 day range; rising lows from London to late NY, price back at range top.
USDJPY held a 157.60–158.00 band through Monday. London and NY lows at 157.602 and 157.631 sat above the Asian low, and a rising lows line through the 157.792 late NY low held after the NY leg. The yen underperformed despite the softer USD. Price is back at the 157.998 day high after a thin rollover low gap to 157.864, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 157.864, 157.792, 157.631
Resistance: 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 day high breaks the session range; 158.00 also carries intervention-rhetoric risk
Loss of the 157.864 rollover low returns price to mid-range, toward the NY leg fib 50% near 157.80
Break below the 157.792 late NY low breaks the rising lows line; below the 157.631 NY low the higher-low sequence fails
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Rallied off the Asia open near 157.49 but has been held under the 158.00 cap all day, rejected at 157.99 in Asia, 157.998 in London and the 157.96 late high in NY, as the yen underperformed despite a softer USD. NY printed higher lows from the 157.63 ny low to the 157.78 higher low. A small rollover gap to the 157.86 gap low is being filled, with price back at EMA20 in the upper half of the NY swing fib.
Support: 157.86, 157.78, 157.63
Resistance: 157.96, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 cap breaks the day-long ceiling, though intervention rhetoric clusters near the range top
Loss of the 157.78 higher low reopens the 157.63 ny low
US midterms Tue Nov 3, results overnight into Wed, could materially shift this read
157.60–158.00 day range; NY leg making higher lows, capped below session high.
Monday's range is 157.60–158.00. The London session high at 157.998 still caps price. The NY leg off the 157.63 NY low recovered after the ISM beat and printed higher lows up to the 157.96 late NY high, despite the softer dollar backdrop. The thin post-rollover gap of about 8 pips leaves price at 157.89, above the higher low at 157.82, which sits near the 38.2% of the NY leg fib.
Support: 157.82, 157.63
Resistance: 157.96, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 session high and 158.00 psych breaks the day range; intervention rhetoric tends to build near this cap
Failure to hold the 157.82 higher low ends the NY grind and puts the 157.63 NY low back in play
Asia session opens on thin liquidity ahead of Tuesday's US midterms; results overnight into Wednesday could materially shift this read
157.60–158.00 range; higher low in NY, compression under the late ny high.
London swept below the Asian low (157.68) to the london low at 157.60 and reclaimed it, but the rally stalled at the day high of 157.998, just under 158.00, the top of the 157.00–158.00 band in the market digest. NY's dip held the ny low at 157.63 for a higher low, with a bounce around the ISM beat, then compressed between the range floor at 157.78 and the late ny high at 157.95. The rollover gap to 157.87 printed on thin liquidity and pulled price under the NY higher-lows line.
Support: 157.78, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.95, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.00 (day high) breaks the band top; digest flags louder intervention rhetoric toward 158.60
Loss of the 157.78 range floor exposes the ny low at 157.63 and the london low at 157.60
Failure to reclaim ~157.90 in the Asia session leaves the NY higher-lows line broken
US midterms Tue (results overnight into Wed) and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, grinding into day high · RSI 57 · price 157.95
Higher-low chain off the 157.63 NY low, compressing under 158.00.
Since the 157.63 NY low, a twin of the 157.60 London low, the pair has stacked higher lows at 157.78, 157.79 and 157.85. It is now pressing the 157.961 late high, just under the 157.998 day high and the 158.00 range top. JPY is still lagging even with the dollar softer on the oil slide, while thin post-NY trade and RSI near 57 show no stretch.
Support: 157.846, 157.775, 157.631
Resistance: 157.961, 157.998
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.998 day high breaks the 158.00 range top that has capped Asia and London
Loss of the 157.846 higher low and the higher-low line stalls the NY recovery chain
Failure to hold the 157.775 swing low reopens the 157.63 ny low
US midterms Tue and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Range-bound, grinding back toward range top · RSI 57 · price 157.94
157.60–158.00 day range, rising lows since NY low.
Monday held a 157.60–158.00 range. The 157.998 day high near the 158.00 band top was rejected twice, in Asia and again in London, and each rejection sent price to the 157.602 london low and then the 157.631 NY low. The ISM beat lifted price off that NY low, and since then rising lows at the 157.775 swing low and 157.846 higher low have pushed price back to 157.94 after the NY close, just under the 157.949 ny high.
Support: 157.846, 157.775, 157.602
Resistance: 157.949, 157.998
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.998 day high breaks the 158.00 cap that held twice today
A break of the 157.846 higher low and the rising-lows line returns price to the 157.775 swing low
Failure at the 157.775 swing low reopens the 157.602 london low
US midterm results into Wednesday could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Range, higher lows building under the top · RSI 60 · price 157.937
157.60–158.00 day range; higher lows from the NY low compressing below the range top.
USD/JPY held a 157.60–158.00 range all day. The London low at 157.60 and the NY low at 157.63 both found demand, and the ISM beat lifted price off the latter. Since then, higher lows at the 157.775 swing low and the 157.846 higher low have compressed price under the 157.95 ny high and the 157.998 range top, which intervention talk keeps capping, as thin post-NY trade heads into Asia.
Support: 157.846, 157.775, 157.602
Resistance: 157.949, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 range top breaks the day's stalemate
Failure to hold the 157.846 higher low breaks the rising higher lows line
Loss of the 157.775 swing low reopens the London low at 157.60
US midterms Tue and JOLTS 15:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
157.60–158.00 range; higher lows since NY low, pressing range top.
The post-ISM dip to the 157.63 NY low was bought, and a higher-low chain at 157.775 and 157.82 has lifted price into the recent highs near 157.95. That sits just under the 157.99–158.00 day high, which capped both Asia and London despite softer USD on lower yields. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR is about 6 pips as liquidity thins after the NY close.
Support: 157.82, 157.775, 157.63
Resistance: 157.95, 158.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.00 day high breaks the session range top and the 157–158 band flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 157.82 higher low breaks the NY trendline and exposes the 157.775 swing low, then the 157.63 NY low
Repeated stalls at the 157.95 recent highs keep the range read intact
US midterms Tuesday and any Katayama intervention rhetoric near 158.00 could materially shift this read
157.60–158.00 range since Asia; higher lows pressing range top.
USDJPY has held a 157.60–158.00 range since the Asia session. The London low at 157.60 and the NY dip to 157.63 both held, while the 157.998 day high capped the topside. Late NY is building rising lows off 157.63 and the 157.78 swing low, compressing under the 157.95 NY highs with ATR near 7 pips. The softer dollar on lower oil and yields has not pushed the pair out of its band.
Support: 157.78, 157.60
Resistance: 157.95, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 day high breaks the range top, which is also the upper edge of the 157–158 post-BoJ band where intervention talk has capped
Repeated failure at the 157.95 NY highs keeps the range read intact
Loss of the 157.78 swing low and the rising-lows line exposes the 157.60 London low
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
Asia lifted USDJPY from 157.46 to 157.99. London and early NY both dipped, with the NY low at 157.63 before the ISM beat steadied the pair. Late NY is now printing rising lows at 157.78 and 157.82 into a range top at 157.95, capped under the 157.998 day high, with price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 157.82, 157.775, 157.631
Resistance: 157.95, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 day high clears 158.00, the top of the band where intervention warnings get louder
Break below 157.82 ends the rising lows; the 157.775 swing low and 157.63 NY low come next
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
The NY dip to the 157.631 ny low into the ISM release reversed. Lows have since stepped up through 157.775 and 157.818 along a rising lows line, while the 157.949 session high and the 157.998 day high keep capping price just under the 158.00 range top the yen digest flags. RSI(14) is neutral at 54, ATR about 6.6 pips, and late-NY trade is compressing ahead of the US midterms.
Support: 157.818, 157.775, 157.631
Resistance: 157.949, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 day high clears the 158.00 range top, opening the wider 158.60 band edge
Break of the rising lows line and the 157.818 higher low returns focus to the 157.775 swing low
Loss of the 157.631 ny low reopens London's 157.60 base
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read; JOLTS follows Tue 15:00 UTC
157.60–158.00 day range, compressing below ny high.
Monday held a 157.60–158.00 range. The London low at 157.602 and the ny low at 157.631 nearly matched, while the Asia and London highs were rejected at 157.99–158.00. Since the ISM-beat bar at 15:00 UTC turned price off the ny low, late NY has carved higher lows. Price is now pinned below the 157.943 ny high, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 157.818, 157.631
Resistance: 157.943, 157.998
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.998 session high clears the round 158.00 day-range top, which the digest flags as the base of the 158.00–158.60 band
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 157.818 intraday low puts the 157.631 ny low back in play
US midterm results land overnight into the Asia session and could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Range-bound, mild higher lows late NY · RSI 56 · price 157.894
157.60–158.00 day range; higher lows off the NY low.
USDJPY has held a 157.60–158.00 range all Monday. The London low at 157.60 and the NY low at 157.63 both held, and the bounce after the ISM beat built higher lows near 157.78 into late NY. The session high at 158.00 still caps price, and the dollar has had little follow-through as oil and US yields slid.
Support: 157.78, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.94, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.00 session high breaks the day range; a stall at the 157.94 late NY high keeps it intact
Break of the 157.78 higher low cancels the late-NY rising sequence and exposes the 157.63 NY low
Loss of the 157.60 London low opens the range floor
US midterm results arrive overnight in the Asia session and could materially shift this read
Intraday range 157.60–158.00, compressing 157.78–157.93 in late NY.
Supply capped the day high at 157.998, just under 158.00, after the Asia and London rallies. The London low at 157.60 and the NY low at 157.63, set into the ISM beat, form a higher-low pair. Late NY is coiling between the 157.78 swing low and the 157.93 late NY high, holding near the 50% of the NY rally, while a soft dollar keeps the pair pinned below 158.
Support: 157.78, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.93, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 day high breaks the 158.00 range top; Katayama intervention rhetoric is the brake there
Failure to hold the 157.78 swing low puts the NY low at 157.63 and the London low at 157.60 back in play
Higher-lows trendline break under ~157.65 ends the rising-low sequence
US midterm results overnight Tue could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 157.832
157.60–158.00 day range; late NY compressing between 157.78 and 157.93.
USDJPY has held a 157.60–158.00 range all Monday, with the 158.00 day high rejected in both Asia and London. The ISM beat drew only a brief bounce off the 157.63 NY low as softer oil and yields kept USD from extending. Late NY is compressing between the 157.78 swing low and the 157.93 late NY high, with price flat on EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 157.78, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.93, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.93 late ny high reopens the 158.00 day high; acceptance above 158.00 breaks the range
Loss of the 157.78 swing low and the ny higher lows line exposes the 157.63 ny low and 157.60 london low; the ny swing fib 61.8% sits at 157.75
US midterm results land overnight during the Asia session and could materially shift this read
157.60–158.00 day range; NY higher lows from 157.63 beneath the 157.93 NY high.
USD/JPY has held a 157.60–158.00 range all Monday. London was rejected at the 157.998 session high, and NY has since built higher lows from the 157.63 NY low and the 157.78 swing low as the dollar pared early losses around the ISM beat. Late in the NY session, price sits mid-range on flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 48, and the 157.93 NY high is capping for now.
Support: 157.775, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.932, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and reopens the 157.63 NY low / 157.60 london low
Acceptance above the 157.93 NY high and the 158.00 session high would mark a range break; intervention rhetoric from Katayama is a brake near that top
US midterm results flowing overnight into Asia Wednesday could materially shift this read
USD/JPY has been boxed between 157.60 and 158.00 since the Asian range. The 158.00 cap rejected Asia's 157.991 and London's 157.998 session high, while the london low at 157.602 and ny low at 157.631 printed near-equal floors. The bounce off the ny low came after a mixed ISM set and has formed rising lows, with the 157.775 swing low holding and price pressing the 157.932 late ny high in thin late-NY trade. RSI(14) is around 58 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 7 pips ahead of the US midterms.
Support: 157.775, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.932, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 session high breaks the 158.00 cap and the range read
Loss of the 157.775 swing low breaks the NY rising lows and reopens the ny low at 157.631
A break below the london low at 157.602 shifts the read to a range break lower
US midterm results flowing into Tuesday's Asia session could materially shift this read; Katayama intervention rhetoric remains a brake near 158.00
18:46 UTC
Intraday range, grinding higher in NY · RSI 62 · price 157.91
Higher lows inside 157.60–158.00 day range.
The ISM Manufacturing beat at 15:00 UTC lifted USD/JPY off the 157.63 NY low. It has since built higher lows at 157.63 and the 157.78 swing low and now sits just under the 157.93 NY high. The day high at 158.00, which is also the Asian peak and the range top, caps the session. RSI(14) near 62 is not stretched.
Support: 157.78, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.93, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 day high breaks the Monday range
Failure to hold the 157.78 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and reopens the 157.63 ny low and 157.60 day low
Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could shift the read
Japan intervention rhetoric near 158.00 is a brake on the range top
18:31 UTC
Intraday range, higher lows since NY open · RSI 62 · price 157.899
Compressing between 157.60 and 158.00, price at top of NY range.
The ISM Manufacturing beat lifted the pair off the 157.631 NY low, and price has since built higher lows inside a 157.775–157.91 NY range. Price is now pressing the 157.91 NY high and the lower-highs line from the 157.998 day high, with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 157.775, 157.631
Resistance: 157.91, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 NY high puts the 157.998 day high and the 158.00 handle in play
Failure back below the 157.775 NY range low exposes the 157.631 NY low and the rising support line
US midterms Tue (results overnight) could break the 157.60–158.00 day range in either direction
Contracting range 157.63–158.00, coiling under 157.91.
Asia lifted USDJPY from 157.46 to just shy of 158.00. London dipped to the 157.60 day low, then a second push met rejection at the 157.998 session high. In NY, the ISM Manufacturing beat lifted price off the 157.63 NY low to a 157.91 NY high, and late NY hours are now compressing between a falling highs line and a rising lows line around flat EMAs.
Support: 157.775, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.91, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 ny high breaks the falling highs line and puts the 157.998 session high back in focus
Loss of the 157.775 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 157.631 ny low and 157.602 day low
Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC, then US midterms Tuesday, could break the coil
18:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 157.815
157.60–158.00 session range, lower highs since London.
Monday is boxed in a 157.60–158.00 range. Asia and London both met rejection just under the 158.00 round number, and the NY dip to the 157.63 ny low held above the 157.60 london low before the ISM beat lifted price to the 157.91 ny high. Lower highs since London are capping price, now pinned at the EMA20/50 cluster near 157.82 with support at the 157.78 pullback low.
Support: 157.78, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 ny high and the lower-high line reopens the 158.00 round number, where Katayama's intervention rhetoric has been capping
Failure to hold the 157.78 pullback low puts the 157.63 ny low back in play; a break of the 157.60 london low ends the range read
Fed Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and pre-midterm USD hedging could jolt this range
17:46 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 52 · price 157.808
157.60–158.00 range; NY bounce stalling below 157.91.
USDJPY has held a 157.60–158.00 band all Monday. Asia and London both met rejection just under the 158.00 day high, and the NY low at 157.63 held above the London low after the mixed ISM print. After London close the NY bounce has stalled below the 157.91 NY high. Price is drifting at 157.81 on the EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and the 157.77 pivot low the nearest floor.
Support: 157.77, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.77 pivot low breaks the NY higher lows and reopens the 157.63 NY low
Loss of the 157.60 London low would end the range read and mark a lower-low
Close above the 157.91 NY high puts the 158.00 day high back in play; acceptance above it breaks the range
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Sideways, compressing after ISM bounce · RSI 53 · price 157.848
Higher lows vs lower highs inside 157.60–158.00 day range.
USDJPY is coiling inside Monday's 157.60–158.00 range. London's rejection at the 158.00 day high and the 157.91 NY high form lower highs, while the 157.60 London low and 157.63 NY low mark higher lows. The ISM beat lifted price off the NY low, and late NY trade is holding just above the 157.77 swing low with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 157.77, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 day high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range top
Loss of the 157.77 swing low exposes the 157.63 NY low; a break below the 157.60 London low ends the higher-lows chain
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Sideways, compressing in late NY · RSI 54 · price 157.866
157.60–158.00 day range; lower highs from 158.00 and higher lows off 157.63.
Monday has held a 157.60–158.00 range since Asia. London dipped to 157.60 (london low), then rallied to 157.998 for a rejection just under the 158 cap. The ISM beat at 15:00 UTC lifted NY off the 157.63 ny low. Lower highs at the ny high 157.91 and a higher low near 157.80 are compressing price around 157.87, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and the EMAs flat beneath.
Support: 157.80, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.91 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158 cap, where Tokyo's 'disorderly moves' rhetoric sits overhead
Loss of the 157.80 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.63 ny low and 157.60 london low at the range floor
Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could break the compression; thin pre-election trade into the Asia session
17:01 UTC
Sideways, compressing after London · RSI 53 · price 157.837
157.60–158.00 range, lower highs vs higher lows.
USDJPY has held a 157.60–158.00 range since London. The day high at 157.998 was rejected just under the 158.00 round number. NY dipped to a 157.63 low before the ISM Manufacturing beat lifted price back to the 157.91 NY high, and lower highs against higher lows now leave it pinned near 157.84 after London close, RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 157.77, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 158.00 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.77 swing low exposes the 157.63 NY low and 157.60 London low, the base of the higher-lows sequence
Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
157.60–158.00 range, NY higher low under lower highs.
Mid-NY session, USDJPY is still inside the 157.60–158.00 band set since Asia. The London low at 157.60 and the NY low at 157.63 form a shallow double bottom. The post-ISM-beat bounce stalled at the 157.91 NY high, below the 158.00 day high, so the pair is compressing between lower highs and a higher low at the 157.77 pullback low. RSI(14) is neutral near 52, with price just above EMA20/50 around 157.82.
Support: 157.77, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 day high confirms the double bottom and breaks the range top
Loss of the 157.77 pullback low negates the NY higher low and reopens the 157.63 NY low
Failure to hold the 157.60 london low breaks the range floor
Fed Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 49 · price 157.835
157.60–158.00 range; lower highs below day high, higher low at NY low.
London dipped below the Asian low to the 157.60 London low and reversed to a 157.998 day high. The NY open sell-off held above it at the 157.63 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 157.91 NY high, leaving lower highs under 158.00, and price now sits on flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 49 as the dollar drifts softer into the midterms.
Support: 157.77, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.91 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 158.00 day high back in play
Loss of the 157.77 pullback low reopens the 157.63 NY low and the 157.60 London low
Liquidity thins after London close; US midterm results overnight into Wed could reset the 157.60–158.00 range
157.60–158.00 day range; NY higher low at 157.63, lower high at 157.91.
USD/JPY has held a 157.60–158.00 range since the Asian session, with two rejections just under 158.00 and the 157.60 London low intact. NY dipped to a higher low at 157.63 before the ISM beat lifted price back to the 61.8% retrace near 157.86, just under the 157.91 NY high.
Support: 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 NY high puts the 158.00 day high back in play; acceptance above 158.00 breaks the range
Loss of the 157.63 NY low, then the 157.60 London low, breaks the higher lows and opens the range floor
Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) on December hike odds could shift this read
US midterms Tue Nov 3 are the main event risk for a range break
16:01 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off NY low · RSI 52 · price 157.862
157.60–158.00 intraday range; NY low at 157.63 held above the 157.60 London low.
USD/JPY has been boxed in a 157.60–158.00 range since mid-Asia. The day high at 157.998 rejected price twice, in Asia and London, just shy of the round number. After London close the NY low at 157.631 held above the London low, and the ISM beat lifted price back to the 61.8% retracement near 157.86, with the NY high at 157.91 the first cap.
Support: 157.735, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.91, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 NY high puts the 157.998 day high back in play; acceptance above 158.00 invalidates the range read
Loss of the 157.735 NY open low exposes the 157.63 NY low and 157.60 London low; a close below 157.60 is a range break
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC on December hike odds could jolt the 61.8% retracement area
US midterms Tue Nov 3, with results overnight, could materially shift this read at either range edge
15:46 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding from NY low · RSI 53 · price 157.88
157.60–158.00 range; NY higher low at 157.63 above London low.
USD/JPY is ranging between 157.60 and 158.00. London's rally from the 157.60 London low stalled at 157.998 and was rejected just under the round number, matching the Asian high near 157.99. The NY session sold off to the 157.63 NY low, a higher low, before the ISM Manufacturing beat lifted price back above the 157.74 pivot to 157.88. Price is now pressing the 157.92 pivot high, near the 68% fib of the London high-NY low drop.
Support: 157.74, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.92, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the range top twice rejected today
Failure to hold the 157.63 NY low and the 157.60 London low breaks the higher-low trendline and the range floor
Rejection at the 157.92 pivot high keeps the 157.74 pivot in focus
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could shift this read, and Tuesday's US midterms carry overnight event risk
157.60–158.00 day range; NY dip held above London low.
London's run to 157.998 was rejected under the 158.00 day high, and NY broke the 157.84 floor of the midday range on a run of lower highs. The dip found a 157.63 NY low just above the 157.60 London low, retracing most of the London leg, before the mixed ISM data at 15:00 UTC lifted price back to 157.76, still below both EMAs.
Support: 157.63, 157.60, 157.46
Resistance: 157.84, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close back above 157.84 broken floor clears the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.00 day high
Loss of the 157.60 London low breaks the day range, exposing the 157.46 Asian low
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and dollar positioning into Tuesday's midterms could materially shift this read
Double top at 157.99/158.00, then lower highs and lower lows into NY session.
Rejections just under 158.00 in Asia (157.99) and London (158.00) built a double top. The NY open then broke the 157.82–157.99 London range and printed lower lows to the 157.63 NY low, just above the 157.60 London low. The bounce into the 15:00 UTC ISM window is capped near the 38.2% at 157.77 as USD stays soft into the midterms.
Support: 157.63, 157.60, 157.46
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.60 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.46 asia low
M15 close above the 157.85 lower high (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence off the double top
ISM follow-through and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Price stays below the falling lower-high trendline from 158.00; a close back above it changes the structure
Double top at 158.00, lower-high chain into NY open.
Rejection at the 157.99/158.00 double top (Asia and London highs) has turned into a lower-high sequence through the London-NY transition. Price is at 157.63, just above the London low at 157.60, with RSI(14) near 38 on a soft-USD tone ahead of ISM Mfg PMI.
Support: 157.60, 157.46
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.60 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.46 asia low
Recovery above the 157.85 swing high (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-highs line
158.00 double top intact unless reclaimed; intervention warnings sit near the range top
14:46 UTC
Intraday down-leg inside 157.60–158.00 day range · RSI 38 · price 157.732
Double top near 158.00, NY printing lower highs and lower lows.
London's push to 157.998 stalled just under 158.00, matching the Asian high to form a double top. With the dollar soft ahead of the midterms, NY has since printed lower highs and a ny low at 157.66. Price sits below the 61.8% retrace of the London rally at 157.73, with RSI(14) near 38 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 157.66, 157.60, 157.46
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC, one bar away, could materially shift this read; Goolsbee follows at 16:15
A close below the 157.60 london low breaks the day range and exposes the asian low at 157.46
Recovery above the 157.85 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain
Lower highs below 158.00 after two rejections; price testing the Asian swing low.
USD/JPY was rejected twice at the 158.00 double top, once in the Asia session and again in late London, and has printed lower highs since. The first hour of NY dragged price to 157.70, a 72% retrace of the London low-to-high leg, with RSI(14) near 34 and the Asian low at 157.68 now in play. Intervention talk from Tokyo and a softer USD tone keep supply capping the 158 handle.
Support: 157.677, 157.602
Resistance: 157.851, 157.998
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) could materially shift this read; Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC follows
M15 close below the 157.60 london low completes the double top and exits the session range
Recovery above the 157.85 lower high, then the descending trendline, voids the double top read
Asian low at 157.68 is the first test; a hold keeps price inside the 157.60–158.00 session range
Double top below 158.00, lower highs into NY open.
Soft JPY carried price from the 157.47 Sunday open to 157.99 in Asia, and London's rebound from the 157.602 london low was rejected at 157.998, forming a double top just under 158.00 as Katayama's warnings cap the topside. NY open has extended the lower-high sequence and printed a 157.736 ny low near the 61.8% fib, RSI(14) at 37, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 157.736, 157.602
Resistance: 157.916, 157.998
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
A close below the 157.736 ny low exposes the 157.602 london low, the double top neckline
A close above the 157.916 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 157.998 double top and 158.00
Asia and London both stalled at the 158.00 session high, the round number where Katayama's intervention talk sits, keeping the pair inside a 157.60–158.00 range. Early NY extended the lower highs sequence and printed a 157.74 NY low, near the 61.8% retracement of the London rally. RSI(14) is near 41 with price under both EMAs; ATR(14) is about 7.6 pips.
Support: 157.74, 157.60
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 157.91 lower highs breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 158.00 session high
Failure to hold the 157.74 NY low exposes the 157.60 London low at the range floor
13:46 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since London peak · RSI 41 · price 157.802
Lower-high sequence under 158.00; 157.82 shelf broken, testing 61.8% retrace.
London dipped to the 157.60 london low, then ran back to a 157.998 session high, stalling at the Asian high just under 158.00 as Katayama's intervention talk caps the topside. A lower-high chain has followed, and the 13:30 UTC bar broke the 157.82 shelf to tag the 61.8% fib at 157.74. Price is now sitting on the 50% retrace of the London leg ahead of the NY open.
Support: 157.736, 157.677, 157.602
Resistance: 157.83, 157.92, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.83 broken shelf and the 157.92 lower high voids the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 157.74 exposes the 157.68 asian low, then the 157.60 london low
A clean break of the 157.998 session high and 158.00 reopens the upper part of the 157–158 range
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight range 157.82–158.00 after a double cap at the session high.
USD/JPY ran from the 157.47 Monday open to 157.99 in Asia as JPY underperformed. London dipped to the london low at 157.60, then retested 158.00 with a 157.998 session high and was rejected there. Price has since compressed in a 157.82–157.97 range on rising support into the London-NY transition, sitting on EMA20 with RSI near 47 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 157.817, 157.602
Resistance: 157.998
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could break the 157.82–158.00 range either way
Close above the 157.998 session high and 158.00 ends the double cap; intervention rhetoric has been concentrated around this area
Loss of the 157.82 range floor and rising support exposes the 157.75 london leg 61.8% retracement and the 157.60 london low
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC is a secondary catalyst inside the NY session
13:16 UTC
Range-bound under 158.00, upper half of day's range · RSI 51 · price 157.897
157.82–158.00 range after a London dip to 157.60 was fully retraced.
Asia lifted the pair from the 157.47 open to 157.99, and the London dip to 157.60 was fully retraced by mid-morning. Three tests of the 158.00 cap (157.977, 157.991, 157.998) have each drawn rejection amid Katayama's intervention warnings. Price is now rotating in a 157.82–158.00 range above the 38.2% level of the London rebound fib, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 157.82, 157.753, 157.602
Resistance: 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 cap breaks the session range; louder intervention rhetoric is likely near 158
Loss of the 157.82 range low exposes the 61.8% fib at 157.75 and the 157.60 london low
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) could materially shift this read, with Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC
Lower highs from 157.998, higher lows above 157.82; compressing late London.
London rallied from its 157.60 london low to 157.998 and was rejected at the 158 cap, a second failure after Asia's 157.99 top. Lower highs since (157.949, 157.921) are compressing price against a 157.82 swing low into the London-NY transition, with the yen leg up from Friday's BoJ dip stalling on Katayama's intervention warnings.
Support: 157.82, 157.60
Resistance: 157.92
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read; Goolsbee follows at 16:15
M15 close above the 158 cap opens the path toward fresh session highs and is the level where intervention rhetoric has capped the pair
Close above 157.92 lower high breaks the descending sequence off the session high
Failure to hold the 157.82 swing low exposes the 50% retrace near 157.80 and then the 157.60 london low
London rebound from 157.60 stalled at the 158.00 session high; lower high at 157.95 and price holding above the 157.82 swing low.
A soft yen lifted the pair through the Asia session from the 157.46 asian low to 157.99. London dipped to 157.60, then rallied back but was rejected a pip shy of 158.00, so the session high has now been tested twice under Katayama's intervention warnings. Into the London-NY transition, price is coiling between the 157.95 lower high and the 157.82 swing low, near the 38.2% retrace of the London leg. RSI(14) is neutral at about 52.
Support: 157.82, 157.60, 157.46
Resistance: 157.95, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 session high breaks the double test and the range cap
Failure to hold the 157.82 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 157.80 and then the 157.60 london low
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, followed by Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Louder Japanese verbal intervention near 158.00 would reinforce the rejection at the session high
157.60–158.00 Monday range, second rejection at range top.
Late London, USDJPY bounced off the 157.60 london low and ran back to 157.998, stalling at the 158.00 range top for a second time after the Asian 157.99 high. Price is easing to 157.86, just under EMA20 and near the 38.2% of the london leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 49. Yen underperformance is offsetting the softer USD tone.
Support: 157.82, 157.68, 157.60
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.00 range top breaks the double rejection
Failure to hold the 157.82 pullback low exposes the 157.68 asia low and the 50% of the london leg
Loss of the 157.60 london low breaks the range floor and the rising support from the 08:45 UTC low
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.46–157.99; London dipped inside it, then retested the top.
London's rebound from the 157.60 London low stalled at the 158.00 round number, which is also the Asian high, and was rejected there for a second time. The pullback held the 157.82 swing low near the 50% fib of that leg. Yen weakness is offsetting a softer USD, and price sits just under the cap into the NY open with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 157.82, 157.60, 157.46
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above the 158.00 round number breaks the Asian range and puts 158.60, the upper bound of the range cited in the JPY digest, in view.
Failure to hold the 157.82 swing low and the rising support line exposes the 157.60 London low.
A move back under 157.60 shifts focus to the 157.46 Asian low.
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
Session range 157.60–158.00; London reclaimed the Asian high, no extension.
The 09:15 UTC rally off the 157.60 London low stalled at 157.998, a second touch of the Asian high at the 158.00 round number. The 11:30 UTC dip held at the 157.82 swing low, above the 50% fib. Yen underperformance is keeping the pair pinned near the range top despite a softer USD.
Support: 157.82, 157.68, 157.60
Resistance: 158.00, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the two-touch top and opens the 158.60 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric comes into play
Loss of the 157.82 swing low and the rising support line exposes the 157.68 pullback low
Break below the 157.60 london low confirms the double top
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Intraday range, pulling back from 158.00 · RSI 56 · price 157.853
Repeat cap at 157.99–158.00; London dip to 157.60 reversed.
Mid-London, price was rejected at the 157.998 session high, a second failure just under 158.00 after Asia's 157.991. It is now sitting on EMA20 and the 38.2% fib near 157.85, with RSI(14) cooling to about 56. Earlier, London's dip below the Asian pivot to the 157.60 london low reversed sharply despite the softer-USD tone, while MoF intervention rhetoric keeps 158.00 a capped zone.
Support: 157.817, 157.80, 157.602
Resistance: 157.998, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.00 breaks the double cap at the session high and opens the 158.60 range top
Failure to hold the 157.82 pullback low exposes the fib 50% at 157.80, then the 157.60 london low
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Range-bound, capped at 158.00 · RSI 62 · price 157.898
London swept the Asian low then rebounded; second stall at the 158.00 Asian high.
London dipped to 157.60, a false break of the 157.68 asia low, then rebounded to 157.998. That rebound stalled a pip from the 157.991 asian high, and price has eased to 157.90 mid-London. The pair is holding firm despite a softer USD as the yen underperforms, with Tokyo intervention rhetoric framing 158.00 as the range cap.
Support: 157.80, 157.677, 157.602
Resistance: 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 asian high breaks the twin cap; MoF 'disorderly moves' rhetoric clusters there
Loss of the fib 50% retrace of the London rally at 157.80 reopens the asia low at 157.68
Failure to hold the 157.60 london low completes a double-top structure under 158.00
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
11:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at range top · RSI 64 · price 157.94
London leg higher from 157.60 testing the Asian high.
The 157.60 London low held, and the London leg ran about 40 pips back to the 157.99 Asian high. Price is stalling just under the 158.00 range top, with the yen's Tokyo intervention rhetoric in the backdrop. Shallow pullbacks are holding the 157.90 pullback low and RSI(14) at 64 is not stretched.
Support: 157.90, 157.68, 157.60
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 158.00 breaks the range top and the Asian high.
Loss of the 157.90 pullback low exposes the 157.68 swing low.
Failure to hold 157.60 would undercut the London low and the whole London leg.
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
Higher lows from the London low, flat cap at 158.00.
USDJPY rallied about 40 pips off the 157.60 London low as the yen kept underperforming despite a softer USD. Mid-London, the 158.00 round number capped the pair again at 157.998, matching the 157.99 Asia session high. Pullbacks since have held the 157.92 micro low, with RSI(14) near 65 and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 157.92, 157.68, 157.60
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the session range top; intervention-rhetoric risk rises toward the 158.60 band edge
Loss of the 157.92 micro low and the rally line shifts focus to the 157.80 fib 50% and the 157.68 swing low
A break below the 157.60 London low would leave a failed second test of 158.00
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 70 · price 157.99
London V-reversal from 157.60, now testing the Asian high at 158.00.
London took out the Asian pullback low and bottomed at the 157.60 london low. A 40-pip leg then carried price back to the 157.99 Asian high and the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) near 70. The yen is underperforming as Iran-diplomacy hopes drain haven demand, while Katayama's intervention rhetoric keeps 158.00 as the top of the broader range.
Support: 157.90, 157.60, 157.46
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the Asian high and the 157.00–158.00 range top. Intervention-headline risk rises above it.
Failure to hold the 157.90 flip level returns price to the session range and the london leg fib.
Loss of the 157.60 london low exposes the 157.46 asian low from the Sunday open.
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (Prices Paid f/c 77) and Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
10:31 UTC
Intraday rebound, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 157.966
London sweep of the swing low, reclaim of the prior high, retest of the Asian high.
Early London dipped below the Tokyo swing low at 157.68 to a 157.60 London low. A 37-pip rally then reclaimed the 157.90 prior high, and price is now retesting the 157.99 Asian high just under 158.00, the top of the 157.00–158.00 range where Japanese intervention talk sits. RSI(14) near 64 is firm, not stretched, despite a softer USD backdrop.
Support: 157.897, 157.677, 157.602
Resistance: 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 asian high / 158.00 breaks the session range and the week's range ceiling
Slip back below the 157.90 prior high turns the move into a rejection at the asian high
Break of the 157.60 london low invalidates the rising lows from the week open
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Katayama intervention rhetoric near 158.00 adds headline risk
10:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing Asian high · RSI 64 · price 157.965
London dip to 157.60 reversed, now retesting 157.99 Asian high.
Early London dipped to the 157.60 london low, then the 09:15 impulse lifted USD/JPY back to the 157.99 asian high just under the 158.00 top of the 157–158 range. The yen stayed soft despite Katayama's intervention talk. RSI(14) sits near 64, with the rebound holding above the 157.83 impulse base and the 157.68 swing low on the higher-low line from the Sunday open.
Support: 157.83, 157.68, 157.60
Resistance: 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 asian high / 158.00 breaks the Asian range and the 157–158 range top, where intervention rhetoric is the cap
Loss of the 157.83 impulse base (38.2% of the rebound) puts the 157.68 swing low and 157.60 london low back in play
Break of the higher-low line from the Sunday open shifts the read back to range-bottom tests
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday range, sharp bounce off London low · RSI 59 · price 157.924
Asian range 157.46–157.99 intact; London dip below swing low reversed, price back near range top.
The London open dip ran below the 157.68 swing low to a 157.60 London low before a 35-pip, three-bar rally reclaimed the 157.90 prior high, with JPY staying soft despite Katayama's intervention talk. Price now sits a few pips under the 157.99 Asian high, which lines up with the 158.00 range top; RSI(14) near 59 is not stretched.
Support: 157.90, 157.68, 157.60
Resistance: 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 Asian high / 158.00 range top breaks the range read
Slipping back below the 157.90 prior high returns price to the mid-range chop
Break of the 157.60 London low would mark a lower low and the rising support giving way
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Intraday range, sharp rebound off London low · RSI 61 · price 157.931
Asian range 157.46–157.99 intact; London dip to 157.60 fully reversed, lower-high line broken.
Early London sold the pair to a 157.60 London low before a 33-pip reversal from 09:15 UTC broke the lower-high line and reclaimed the 157.90 prior high. Price is now pressing the 157.99 Asian high just under 158.00, with the yen still soft after the BoJ hold and Katayama's intervention warnings shrugged off.
Support: 157.90, 157.68, 157.60
Resistance: 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 Asian high breaks the Asian range into the 158.00 zone where MoF intervention rhetoric tends to pick up
Slip back below the 157.90 prior high returns price to the range, exposing the 157.68 swing low
Failure to hold the 157.60 London low confirms a lower low on the day
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Pullback within Asia rally, sharp bounce · RSI 55 · price 157.837
Lower highs from Asian high, London low held above Asian low.
London faded the 157.991 Asian high to a 157.602 london low, about a 72% retrace of the Asia rally, before a 19-pip spike off that low reclaimed 157.80. Price sits just under the 157.897 lower high, with the yen soft as Katayama's intervention warnings were shrugged off.
Support: 157.602, 157.456
Resistance: 157.897, 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.897 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence and puts the 157.991 asian high back in focus
Failure to hold the 157.602 london low exposes the 157.456 asian low
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Approach toward the 158.00 round number raises MoF intervention-headline risk
09:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asia high, momentum soft · RSI 36 · price 157.648
Lower highs and lower lows since the 157.99 Asia high; London broke the 157.68 Asia pivot.
The week-open yen softness carried the pair from 157.46 to a 157.99 Asia high, where it was rejected. Since then a lower-high sequence has formed, with Iran-diplomacy USD softness in the backdrop. London sliced the 157.68 Asia pivot and printed a 157.60 session low, putting price below the 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally with RSI(14) near 36, not stretched.
Support: 157.602, 157.456
Resistance: 157.677, 157.897, 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.68 asia pivot neutralises the London lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 157.60 session low exposes the 157.46 week open
A break of the descending line through the 157.90 lower high invalidates the downtrend read; the 157.99 asia high sits above it
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Pulling back from Asian high, momentum soft · RSI 38 · price 157.662
Lower highs and lower lows since the 157.99 Asian high.
The Asia session ran from the 157.46 Asian low to a 157.99 Asian high as the yen stayed soft after the BoJ hold. Price then met rejection just under 158.00. It printed a 157.90 lower high and slipped to a 157.60 session low in early London, with Iran-diplomacy USD softness in the background. Price is now sitting near the 61.8% retrace of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.602, 157.456
Resistance: 157.897, 157.991
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.60 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.46 Asian low
A recovery through the 157.90 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 157.99 Asian high back in focus
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
08:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asian rally · RSI 39 · price 157.633
Lower highs and lower lows since 157.99 Asian high.
Asia session ran from the 157.46 weekly open to a 157.99 Asian high on soft yen, but stalled twice under 158.00 and printed a lower high at 157.90. The break of the 157.68 swing low (now a broken low) into London open has price testing the Friday high at 157.64, just below the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally, RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 157.64, 157.46
Resistance: 157.68, 157.90, 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.68 broken low eases the lower-low read
Failure to hold the 157.64 Friday high exposes the 157.46 weekly open
Reclaim of the 157.90 lower high and the trendline puts the 157.99 Asian high back in play
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 37 · price 157.672
Lower-high chain under 157.99, swing low at 157.677 broken at London open.
Asia ran from the 157.456 Asian low to a 157.991 Asian high, rejected just shy of 158.00, and has since printed lower highs. London open broke the 157.677 swing low to a 157.655 London low, and price is sitting on the 61.8% fib of the Asian move. That fits the digest's softer-USD read on Iran-diplomacy hopes, with RSI(14) at 37 and not stretched.
Support: 157.655, 157.572, 157.456
Resistance: 157.787, 157.897, 157.991
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.655 London low exposes the 157.572 Asian pivot, then the 157.456 Asian low
Close back above the 38.2% fib at 157.787 and the trendline from the Asian high would ease the lower-high read
Break of the 157.897 lower high reopens the 157.991 Asian high and 158.00
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Intraday range after Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 39 · price 157.714
Lower high under Asian high, price testing range floor.
The Asia session rally from the 157.46 Asia low extended Friday's post-BoJ recovery, but stalled at the 157.99 Asian high just shy of 158.00. A lower high at 157.90 followed, and price is back at the 157.68 swing low into London open, sitting near the 50% fib of the Asia move with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs as Iran-diplomacy USD softness caps the upside.
Support: 157.68, 157.46
Resistance: 157.90, 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.68 swing low breaks the range floor and opens the 61.8% fib near 157.66, then the 157.46 Asia low
Close above the 157.90 lower high and descending trendline neutralises the fade toward the 157.99 Asian high
Repeat rejection at the 157.99 Asian high / 158.00 round number keeps the range intact
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY extended Friday's post-BoJ recovery through Asia but was rejected at the 157.99 Asian high, just shy of 158.00, as Iran diplomacy headlines eased the USD bid. The pullback held the 157.68 swing low near the 61.8% fib twice, leaving a 157.68–157.90 range capped by a lower high into London open. Price is under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 157.68, 157.64, 157.46
Resistance: 157.90, 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.68 swing low exposes the friday high at 157.64, then the weekly open gap near 157.46
Close above the 157.90 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 157.99 asian high / 158.00
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Verbal intervention headlines near 158.00 can trigger sharp two-way spikes
07:31 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled, pulling back · RSI 42 · price 157.764
Lower high at 157.90 under the 157.99 Asian high; 157.68 swing low still holding.
Asia rallied from the weekly open near 157.46 to a 157.99 Asian high, just shy of 158.00, as the market shrugged off Katayama's FX comments. Price then rejected that high and set a lower high at 157.90. Early London trades 157.76, sitting on the 50-EMA between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asian leg, with the 157.68 swing low as the higher low under the move.
Support: 157.677, 157.456
Resistance: 157.897, 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.68 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low sequence and exposes the 61.8% fib and the 157.46 weekly open
Recovery above the 157.90 lower high reopens the 157.99 Asian high and 158.00
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Any hardening in Japanese FX language near 158.00 risks sharp two-way spikes
07:16 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled, consolidating · RSI 45 · price 157.826
Range 157.68–157.99 with lower highs since the session high.
The Asia rally from the 157.46 asian low stalled at the 157.99 session high, just shy of 158.00. JPY stayed soft after Katayama's warning, which named no levels. The pullback held the 157.68 swing low near the 61.8% fib, and price is now coiling under the 157.90 lower high with RSI(14) neutral near 45 into the London open.
Support: 157.68, 157.46
Resistance: 157.90, 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.90 lower high reopens the 157.99 session high and 158.00
Failure to hold the 157.68 swing low exposes the 157.46 asian low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Higher low at 157.68, lower high at 157.90; compressing.
USD/JPY extended Friday's post-BoJ rebound through the Asia session as the yen stayed soft, but met rejection at a 157.99 session high just under the 158.00 psych handle. The pullback low at 157.68 sits near the 61.8% retracement of the move off the 157.46 Asian low, and price is compressing between that level and a 157.90 lower high ahead of London open, RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 157.677, 157.456
Resistance: 157.897, 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.90 lower high reopens the session high at 157.99/158.00
Failure to hold the 157.68 pullback low breaks rising support and exposes the 157.46 asian low
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Sharper MoF intervention language on a push toward 158.00 raises two-way spike risk
Asian range 157.46–157.99; lower high at 157.90 after pullback held 61.8%.
Asia session extended the rebound from Friday's sub-157.00 post-BoJ low, topping at the 157.99 asian high as Katayama's intervention warning had little effect. The pullback to the 157.68 swing low held near the 61.8% retrace and above the friday high. Price now sits around 157.86 under a lower 157.90 swing high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 157.677, 157.642
Resistance: 157.897, 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 asian high and 158.00 reopens the upside of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 157.68 swing low exposes the friday high at 157.64 and the 50%–61.8% fib zone
Repeated cap at the 157.90 swing high keeps the lower-high sequence intact into London open
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalating MoF intervention language would add two-way spike risk near the highs
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high · RSI 54 · price 157.886
Asia higher-low chain above broken Friday high.
USD/JPY broke above the Friday high at 157.743 in the Asia session. It topped at the 157.991 session high, then pulled back to a 157.677 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the rally off the 157.456 Asian low. Price is back at 157.89 late in Asia, ahead of the London open, with the yen soft as markets read Katayama's FX warning as no imminent action, and the session high and 158.00 round number sit directly overhead.
Support: 157.743, 157.677, 157.456
Resistance: 157.991, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.991 session high and 158.00 round number extends the Asia uptrend
Failure to hold the 157.677 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the Friday high at 157.743 turns the breakout into a false break
Tighter MoF/Katayama language near the 158.00 round number could trigger a sharp yen move
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL chain from 157.456; first pullback held near the 61.8%, lower high at 157.863 caps the bounce.
Asia opened with a small weekend gap down and extended Friday's NY rebound from 156.96. The rally topped at the 157.991 asian high, just shy of 158.00, as JPY stayed soft after Katayama's non-committal FX remarks. The pullback held the 157.677 pullback low near the 61.8% of the asian rally, and price is now recovering below the 157.863 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 157.677, 157.456
Resistance: 157.863, 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.991 asian high brings the 158.00 round number into play
Failure at the 157.863 lower high, then a break of the 157.677 pullback low, exposes the 157.456 asian low and the weekend gap
London open is the next test of whether the Asian range extends or is rejected
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, or any MoF escalation beyond verbal warnings, could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 45 · price 157.771
Asian rally capped at 157.99; higher-low chain broken at 157.68, price coiling in 157.68–157.82.
Asia extended Friday's NY rebound from the sub-157.00 low after Katayama's FX comments were read as no imminent action, but the session high at 157.99 met rejection just shy of 158.00. The pullback held the 157.68 swing low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asian rally, and price is now stuck below the 157.82 bounce high late in the Asia session.
Support: 157.677, 157.642
Resistance: 157.825, 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.82 bounce high reopens the 157.99 session high and 158.00
Break of the 157.68 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the Friday high at 157.64
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC or firmer MoF intervention language could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Asian uptrend paused after a rejection below 158.00 · RSI 47 · price 157.811
HL chain broken by the 157.68 pullback low; trading mid-upper Asian range.
The Asia session extended the recovery from Friday's post-BoJ low, running from the 157.46 Asian low to a 157.99 session high just shy of the 158.00 round number, as Katayama's FX remarks were shrugged off. Rejection there drove a pullback low at 157.68, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg and a retest of Friday's 157.74 high. Price has rebounded to 157.81, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47, late in Asia with London open ahead.
Support: 157.68, 157.46
Resistance: 157.99, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.99 session high and the 158.00 round number resumes the Asian uptrend
Failure to hold the 157.68 pullback low exposes the 157.46 Asian low
London open could set the next leg out of the Asian range
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, beyond the current session, could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Asia uptrend, pulling back after rejection · RSI 38 · price 157.695
Higher lows from 157.46 broken by sharp drop off 157.99; late Asia, price back below Friday high.
USD/JPY carried Friday's post-BoJ recovery into Asia, with yen softness extending the rally. It built higher lows off the 157.46 Asian low to a 157.99 session high just shy of 158.00. A sharp rejection there at 04:30 UTC has pulled price back below the 157.74 Friday high into the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) near 38 and price sitting on EMA50.
Support: 157.66, 157.46
Resistance: 157.74, 157.99
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.66 fib 61.8 opens a run back to the 157.46 Asian low
Reclaiming the 157.74 Friday high would restore the Asia higher-low sequence
A break of the 157.99 session high and 158.00 brings MoF/Katayama rhetoric back into play
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection under 158.00 broke the HL chain; testing swing low.
Asia extended the post-BoJ rebound as markets shrugged off Katayama's FX warning, lifting USDJPY to an asian high of 157.99. A rejection just under 158.00 then broke the asia trendline and the 157.87 broken low. Price is now testing the 157.71 swing low, where the ema50 and the 50% level of the asia rally fib converge, with RSI(14) cooled to 47.
Support: 157.707, 157.642, 157.456
Resistance: 157.865, 157.991
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.71 swing low and ema50 exposes the 61.8% asia rally fib near 157.66 and the 157.64 fri ny high
Reclaim of the 157.87 broken low restores the Asian HL structure; the 157.99 asian high remains the cap
Break of the 157.46 asian low unwinds the full Monday rally
London open in under 2h can reset the session range; US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the NY-session risk
Double top under 158.00, neckline at 157.87 broken.
The Asia session carried the pair from 157.46 through the 157.74 Friday high as JPY stayed soft after the BoJ's hold gave no hike timing. Two tops at 157.98/157.99, just under 158.00, drew rejection, and the 04:45 UTC bar broke the 157.87 neckline and the rising tl. RSI(14) has eased to about 51 with price back under EMA20 late in the Asia session.
Support: 157.74, 157.71
Resistance: 157.87, 157.99
What it said to watch
Holding below the 157.87 neckline keeps the double top active; a close back above the 157.99 session high voids it
Loss of the 157.74 friday high and 157.71 swing low puts the 50–61.8% fib zone at 157.72–157.66 in play
London open in about 3h tests whether the Asian range holds
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst; MoF rhetoric is a cap risk on any push through 158.00
HH/HL chain from Monday's open, now compressing below the session high.
Monday's rally in the Asia session ran from the 157.46 session low through Friday's high at 157.74 as JPY stayed soft on the post-BoJ 'hawkish hold' read. Price is now compressing between the 157.87 swing low and a 157.99 session high just under the 158.00 round number. RSI(14) is near 68 and the bar ranges are narrowing.
Support: 157.865, 157.743, 157.456
Resistance: 157.991
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.99 session high and 158.00 extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 157.87 swing low opens the fib 38.2% at 157.79, then the Friday high at 157.74
A move back through 157.46 retraces the full Monday rally and returns price to the session low
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF/Katayama FX rhetoric on a push through 158.00 could change the read
Asia higher-low chain, compressing under session high.
Asia session carried the pair from the 157.46 week open to a session high at 157.98, clearing Friday high at 157.74 as the yen stayed soft after the BoJ hold and Katayama's low-urgency intervention remarks. Price is now compressing just under the 158.00 round number, with the 157.87 pullback low tested twice and rising support intact. RSI(14) sits near 69.
Support: 157.865, 157.743, 157.456
Resistance: 157.977, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.87 pullback low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 157.98 session high and 158.00 round number extends the Asia leg
Return below Friday high at 157.74, near the Asia leg fib 38.2% at 157.78, would undo the weekend break
Loss of the 157.46 week open would erase the Asia leg entirely
London open liquidity, ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and any escalation in MoF intervention language could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 158.00 · RSI 61 · price 157.907
Tight consolidation below Asia session high after break of Friday high.
Asia session rallied from the 157.46 Sunday open, cleared Friday's high at 157.74 at the Tokyo open and set a session high at 157.977. Yen softness persists despite the BoJ's hawkish hold, with Katayama's intervention talk shrugged off. Price has held a 157.865–157.96 band for two hours just below the 158.00 round number, RSI(14) cooling to about 61.
Support: 157.865, 157.743
Resistance: 157.977, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.977 session high and the 158.00 round number extends the Asia breakout
Break of the 157.865 pullback low exposes the 157.74 Friday high and the 38.2% fib near 157.78
Loss of the Friday high returns price to Friday's range
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a miss below ~53 leans against the pair
Asia HH/HL chain off 157.46, stalling under 158.00.
The Asia session extended Friday's recovery from the post-BoJ low near 156.96, printing higher lows from the 157.46 asia low and reclaiming the 157.74 friday high before a 157.98 session high. The advance has flattened just under the 158.00 round number, with the last dip holding the 157.87 swing low on the rising trendline. Katayama's low-urgency intervention comments did little to slow the yen's slide.
Support: 157.865, 157.743, 157.456
Resistance: 157.977, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.98 session high and 158.00 round number extends the HH chain
Break of the 157.87 swing low and rising trendline exposes the 157.74 friday high, near the 38.2% of the asia rally fib
Loss of the 157.46 asia low would unwind the whole Asia advance
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and any escalation in MoF language near 158 could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 70 · price 157.944
Higher-low chain from Monday low, Friday high cleared.
Asia session extended the post-BoJ rebound off Friday's 156.96 low. Price cleared the friday high at 157.74 and set a session high at 157.98, just under the 158.00 round number. The higher-low chain holds at the 157.87 pullback low with RSI(14) near 70, as Katayama's 'neither good nor bad' comment is read as no imminent intervention.
Support: 157.865, 157.743, 157.456
Resistance: 157.977, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.87 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 157.98 session high and the 158.00 round number extends the breakout; another rejection there leaves a range under 158.00
Return below the 157.74 friday high would mark the breakout as a false break, opening the 157.46 monday low
Sharper MoF/Katayama FX language could hit a fast move toward 158.00
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling just under 158.00 · RSI 71 · price 157.927
Higher-low chain from the Asian open; Friday high cleared.
Asia session extended Friday's rebound from the post-BoJ low near 156.96. The pair climbed off the 157.456 session low, cleared the 157.743 Friday high and printed a 157.977 session high just shy of the 158.00 round number. The yen stayed soft after Katayama's 'neither good nor bad' FX remarks, higher lows along the rising trendline remain intact, and RSI(14) is near 71.
Support: 157.865, 157.743, 157.456
Resistance: 157.977, 158.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.865 swing low ends the higher-low chain and the trendline support
Return below the 157.743 Friday high would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 157.977 session high and the 158.00 round number extends the Asia leg
A fast move through 158.00 risks sharper MoF/Katayama intervention language
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could reset the read in NY
Asia higher lows; broke above Friday high, now pulling back from session high.
Asia session extended Friday's NY rebound off 156.96 with a chain of higher lows from 157.456, clearing the 157.74 fri high and topping at the 157.977 session high just shy of the 158.00 round number. The yen is soft after the BoJ's vague hold and Katayama's 'neither good nor bad' FX remark. Price is easing to 157.88 with RSI(14) near 68, the 157.84 breakout shelf directly beneath.
Support: 157.84, 157.74, 157.456
Resistance: 157.977, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.74 fri high turns the breakout into a false break and puts the asia rally fib 50% near 157.72 in play
Break of the asia higher lows trendline exposes the 157.456 asian low
Acceptance above the 157.977 session high and 158.00 round number extends the Asian range expansion
Sharper MoF/Katayama intervention language around 158.00 could reverse the Asian move quickly
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
HH/HL chain from the 157.46 asia low; break of the 157.71–157.84 range top, pullback from 157.98.
Asia session climbed from the 157.46 asia low through Friday high 157.74, then broke the 157.71–157.84 range top to a 157.98 session high. That extends the yen's post-BoJ softness, with Katayama's 'neither good nor bad' FX comment shrugged off. Price is easing to 157.89 with RSI(14) near 70, sitting on the rising trendline.
Support: 157.842, 157.743, 157.456
Resistance: 157.977, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.84 range top turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and 157.74 friday high exposes the 157.72 fib 50% and the 157.46 asia low
Session high 157.98 and the 158.00 round number cap the move until cleared
Escalation in MoF/Katayama rhetoric on a fast push through 158.00 could trigger a sharp yen bid
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk for this read
Higher lows since Monday open; Friday high cleared, range top now below.
USD/JPY has climbed through the Asia session from the 157.46 open low, clearing the friday high at 157.74. It then broke the 157.70–157.84 range top to print an asia high at 157.977, as the yen stays soft after the BoJ hold and Katayama's FX remarks were shrugged off. RSI(14) near 78 is hot, and price is stalling just under the 158.00 psych level.
Support: 157.84, 157.74
Resistance: 157.977, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.84 range top would turn the breakout into a stall
Failure to hold the 157.74 friday high, near the 50% fib of the Asia rally, breaks the higher-low chain
Clean acceptance above the 157.977 asia high and 158.00 psych extends the leg
A fast push through 158.00 risks sharper MoF/Katayama 'disorderly' language and knee-jerk yen support
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC, later in NY hours, could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI warm but not extreme · RSI 71 · price 157.922
HH/HL chain in Asia, broke above Friday high and consolidation.
The Asia session has built a steady HH/HL climb from the 157.46 session low. Price cleared Friday's high at 157.74 and then the 157.71–157.84 consolidation, and now sits at the 157.94 session high with RSI(14) near 71. JPY is giving back ground after Friday's BoJ hold even as softer US yields weigh on USD, and flow remains thin.
Support: 157.84, 157.74, 157.46
Resistance: 157.94, 158.00
What it said to watch
A slip back below the 157.84 breakout lvl into the prior consolidation would stall the HH/HL chain
A break of the asia rally trendline and Friday high near 157.74 would shift the read toward a range
The 158.00 round number is the next test, and MoF 'disorderly moves' rhetoric caps the upside narrative
Loss of the 157.46 session low would erase the entire Asia rally
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session higher highs and higher lows; Friday high broken.
Monday's Asia session built a higher-high/higher-low chain off the 157.46 open low and cleared the 157.74 Friday high, printing a 157.88 session high on thin flow as yen pressure eased after Katayama's soft-floor comments. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme. The 157.71 Asia pivot and the rising Asia trend line sit just below.
Support: 157.74, 157.71, 157.46
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.74 Friday high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 157.71 Asia pivot and Asia trend line breaks the HH/HL chain; the 50% retrace of the Asia leg is near 157.67
Acceptance above the 157.88 session high brings the 158.00 round number into view
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC sits beyond the Asia and London sessions but could reset this read
Asia breakout above Friday high, tight consolidation.
Asia session lifted USDJPY from the 157.46 open low through Friday's 157.74 high, which has since been retested with a pullback low at 157.71. Price is pinned in a 157.71–157.84 band below the session high, holding above the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally. RSI(14) is near 72. Katayama's 'neither good nor bad' level comments gave the yen little support.
Support: 157.743, 157.707
Resistance: 157.842, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.74 friday high puts the breakout in question; losing the 157.71 pullback low exposes the 157.65 50% retrace of the Asia rally
Clearance of the 157.84 session high opens the 158.00 round number
London open could test the Asian range; ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
Asian session break above Friday's high, now a tight 157.71–157.84 consolidation.
Monday's Asia session lifted USD/JPY from 157.46 to a 157.84 session high, clearing the 157.74 Friday high as the post-BoJ yen bid faded. Price has stalled for the past hour in a 157.71–157.84 band. RSI(14) is cooling to about 68 and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 157.74, 157.71, 157.65
Resistance: 157.84, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.84 session high extends the Asian leg toward the 158.00 round number
Close back below the 157.74 Friday high and the 157.71 range low would mark a false break
Loss of the 50% fib at 157.65 retraces most of the Asian leg back toward the 157.46 Monday open
London open and later US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia session · RSI 69 · price 157.795
Higher highs and higher lows off the Sunday open, above Friday's high.
Early Asia session has climbed in a higher-high, higher-low chain off the 157.46 open low. It cleared Friday's high at 157.74 to tag a 157.84 session high as the post-BoJ yen bid fades. RSI(14) sits near 69, warm but not stretched. Pullbacks are holding above the Asia rising line, with the 158.00 round number the next reference overhead.
Support: 157.74, 157.60
Resistance: 157.84, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.74 friday high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the Asia rising line and the 157.60 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 157.84 session high opens the 158.00 round number, where MoF 'disorderly moves' rhetoric is a cap risk
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
After a small weekend gap down, the Asia session lifted USDJPY from the 157.46 monday low through the 157.74 fri high to a 157.835 asian high. Price is now holding a 157.71–157.83 box with RSI(14) near 71. Friday's post-BoJ yen bid stalled at 156.96, and a quiet weekend leaves US yields as the driver.
Support: 157.743, 157.642, 157.456
Resistance: 157.835, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.74 fri high returns price to Friday's range and voids the breakout
A clean break of the 157.835 asian high puts the 158.00 round number in view
Holding the 157.64 fri ny high, near the 50% of the monday rally fib, keeps the higher-low chain intact
Loss of the 157.46 monday low erases the Asia-session advance
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia break above Friday's high, higher lows, tight consolidation at highs.
Asia session opened with a small gap below Friday's 157.53 close, filled it, then rallied from the 157.46 asian low through Friday's 157.76 prior high and the 157.70 post-BoJ rebound area to a 157.83 session high. The last hour has compressed between the 157.71 swing low and the high, and RSI(14) is cooling near 65. There was no weekend flow, so the move is a carry-over of Friday's USD recovery.
Support: 157.76, 157.71, 157.46
Resistance: 157.83, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.76 prior high turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold 157.71 swing low puts the rally fib 50% at 157.64 and the asian low in focus
Clearance of 157.83 session high opens the 158.00 round number
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid later Monday could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia · RSI 68 · price 157.788
Higher-low chain from Monday open; above Friday's London high.
With no fresh weekend catalyst, USDJPY opened Asia with a small gap down to a 157.46 monday low, then built a higher-low chain to a 157.82 session high, clearing Friday's 157.74 London high but stopping short of the 157.90 prior high. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched. The 157.71 swing low and the fib 50% near 157.64 sit beneath the move.
Support: 157.71, 157.64, 157.46
Resistance: 157.82, 157.90, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.90 prior high clears Friday's range top, with the 158.00 round number next
Break below the 157.71 swing low snaps the higher-low trendline
Return below the 157.46 monday low fills the gap and negates the Asia advance
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia · RSI 67 · price 157.771
HH/HL chain off the Monday open, breaking above Friday's London high.
Monday's Asia session opened about 6 pips below Friday's close at 157.47 and has since made higher highs and higher lows. It pushed through Friday's 157.74 prior high to a 157.82 session high, retracing most of the post-BoJ drop to 156.96 on the fib from that Friday low. With no weekend flow and Ueda vague on hike timing, the pair is pressing toward the top of the 157.10–157.90 swing range, RSI(14) at 67 and not stretched.
Support: 157.743, 157.642, 157.456
Resistance: 157.823, 157.895, 158.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the 157.74 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a return below it shifts focus to the 157.64 fri ny high, near the 23.6% fib
A close above the 157.82 session high exposes the 157.90 friday high and the 158.00 round number
A break of the rising support line and the 157.46 asia low would erase the Monday rally
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off Friday's 156.96 low; early Asia breaking Friday NY high.
Friday's post-BoJ selling bottomed at 156.96. The rally from that Friday low continued into Monday's Asia open: after a small gap to the 157.46 Asian low, price cleared the 157.64 Fri NY high and printed a 157.82 session high. RSI(14) is near 68, and price is sitting just under Friday's 157.90 prior high in thin early-week liquidity.
Support: 157.64, 157.46, 157.26
Resistance: 157.82, 157.90
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.90 prior high extends the HH chain beyond Friday's range
Slip back below the 157.64 Fri NY high turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 157.46 Asian low, and the rising trendline near it, breaks the HL sequence; the 157.26 swing low sits below
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 156.96; Asia open push into 157.69.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap under Friday's 157.53 close. Price held the 157.46 asia low and pushed to 157.69, now pressing the 157.74 fri high from the London session. The chain of higher lows from Friday's post-BoJ 156.96 low through the 157.26 higher low is intact, and RSI(14) at ~63 is not stretched.
Support: 157.46, 157.26
Resistance: 157.74, 157.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.74 fri high opens the 157.90 fri asia hi
Rejection at 157.74 keeps price inside Friday's range
Break below the 157.46 asia low erases the Monday push and puts the 157.26 higher low in focus
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read