USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 35 · price 158.607
Post-NY consolidation below 158.766 session high; lower high at 158.74, price retesting 158.60.
The JOLTS and factory orders beats lifted the pair through the 158.60 prior high. NY hours then extended the move to a 158.766 session high before it went flat. Early Asia has drifted back after the rollover gap, carving a lower high at 158.74 and retesting 158.60, which sits near the 23.6% of the NY leg fib. RSI(14) has cooled to about 35.
Support: 158.60, 158.413
Resistance: 158.741, 158.766
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.60 prior high exposes the NY leg fib 38.2% near 158.47 and the 158.41 swing low.
A recovery through the 158.74 lower high puts the 158.766 session high back in play.
The US midterm Senate call overnight could materially shift this read.
Japan intervention rhetoric remains live around the 158.60 area.
HH/HL chain since London open; tight drift above old range top.
Firm US data lifted USD/JPY through the 158.60 range top during NY hours, setting a 158.77 session high at 20:30 UTC. Since then it has drifted in a tight 158.63–158.75 band into the Asia session, RSI(14) neutral near 44, with price riding the rising trendline from the 158.41 NY low.
Support: 158.63, 158.60, 158.41
Resistance: 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
A break below the 158.63 late low and the 158.60 range top puts the breakout back inside the range. That exposes the 23.6% fib of the NY leg at 158.58, then the 158.41 NY low.
An M15 close above the 158.77 session high extends the HH chain toward the 159.00 round number. MoF intervention rhetoric is the cap risk near these highs.
The US midterm Senate call is landing overnight and could materially shift this read. A Democratic sweep is the downside tail.
Higher lows above broken 158.60 range top; Asia dip retested breakout.
London swept the Asian range low at 157.75 before a firm USD run and the JOLTS beat lifted price through the 158.60 range top, with the NY high printing at 158.766. Early Asia dipped to a 158.626 Asia low, holding the 38.2% fib of the post-JOLTS leg and rising support. Price is back near 158.74, RSI(14) neutral around 54, as US midterm results start to land.
Support: 158.626, 158.60, 158.413
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.626 Asia low and back under the 158.60 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 158.766 NY high opens 159.00 psych; MoF intervention rhetoric tends to intensify at these levels
US midterm results landing now: a Democratic Senate win could drive a fast USD dip toward the 158.41 JOLTS low
Break of rising support from the JOLTS low would end the higher-low chain
HH/HL chain from London low 157.751, now a tight drift under 158.766.
London broke the Asian range after a 157.751 low, and the JOLTS beat at 15:00 UTC carried price through the 158.60 range top. Late NY printed the session high at 158.766. Price has since drifted into early Asia session, dipping to a 158.626 rollover low and holding above the 158.413 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 45 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 158.626, 158.60, 158.413
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
US midterm results landing from 23:00 UTC, especially Senate control, could materially shift this read
M15 close back under the 158.60 range top and the rollover low turns the drift into a deeper pullback toward 158.413
Acceptance above 158.766 session high exposes the 159.00 round number, where Japan intervention rhetoric risk rises
London broke above the Asian range (157.75–157.97) at 09:00 UTC. The JOLTS and factory orders beats at 15:00 then carried the pair through the 158.60 prior high to a 158.766 session high late in NY. Price has since boxed in 158.70–158.75 and is now drifting to 158.66 after rollover, slipping under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 158.604, 158.465, 158.30
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC land in thin Asia liquidity and could materially shift this read
Holding above the 158.60 prior high keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close back below exposes the 158.465 swing low, which coincides with the 38.2% of the NY leg fib
M15 close above the 158.766 session high opens the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric is a headline risk
Loss of 158.465 exposes the 158.30 london high and the rising trendline from the 07:30 low
Post-breakout consolidation above 158.60, tight 10-pip band into early Asia.
USDJPY cleared the 158.60 breakout level on the 15:00 UTC JOLTS and Factory Orders beats, then extended to a 158.766 session high late in NY hours. Since then it has compressed in a 10-pip band, and the rollover gap low at 158.663 is holding in early Asia. RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 3.6 pips reflect the stall ahead of the midterm results.
Support: 158.663, 158.60, 158.413
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the USD-negative case is a Senate flip.
Failure to hold the 158.60 breakout level reopens the old range. That exposes the 38.2% of the NY leg near 158.47 and the 158.41 swing low.
An M15 close above the 158.766 session high extends the breakout toward the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric is the overhead risk.
22:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling after NY · RSI 56 · price 158.692
HH/HL from 157.75; tight flag-like hold 158.70–158.77 above 158.60.
Inside the Asian range, then a rally from the 157.75 London low. The beat on JOLTS at the NY open broke through 158.60. Since then the pair has made higher lows along a rising lows line off the 157.98 NY low and the 158.41 swing low. Late-NY drift capped at the 158.77 session high, and price is sitting in a narrow 7-pip band above the old range top.
Support: 158.60, 158.413, 157.979
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.60 range top would mark the breakout as a false break and return price to the 157.00–158.60 range
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC can jolt thin post-NY liquidity well beyond the 4-pip ATR
Break of the 158.766 session high opens the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric is a cap risk
Loss of the rising lows line and the 158.41 swing low would break the HH/HL sequence
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 70 · price 158.702
HH/HL chain from London low; post-breakout box above 158.60.
London swept the Asian range low to 157.75, then the day built an HH/HL chain. The JOLTS and Factory Orders beat lifted the pair through the 158.60 range top, and it reached a 158.77 session high during NY hours. After the NY close, price has compressed in a tight 158.70–158.77 box above ema20, with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR(14) around 4.6 pips.
Support: 158.70, 158.60, 158.413
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.70 box low exposes the 158.60 range top. That level is the old ceiling, now the breakout retest
A close back below 158.60 would mark the breakout as a false break. That opens the 158.41 pullback low, which sits close to the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg
A close above the 158.77 session high opens the 159.00 psych level
The rising lows line from 157.75 sits near 158.29. A break of it would end the intraday HH/HL structure
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC, plus MoF intervention rhetoric above 158.60, could materially shift this read in the Asia session
HH/HL chain; tight consolidation above broken 158.60 range top.
London open swept the Asian range low to 157.75, then climbed steadily. The NY leg carried price through the 158.60 range top to a 158.77 session high after strong US JOLTS and factory orders data. Late NY has compressed into a 158.70–158.77 band, with the band floor holding, ATR down to about 4–5 pips and RSI(14) still elevated near 73.
Support: 158.70, 158.60, 158.41
Resistance: 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.60 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.70 band floor exposes the 158.41 swing low, near the 38.2% of the NY leg fib
A close above the 158.77 session high opens the 159.00 psych level
Rising support from the London low sits near 158.30 and marks the deeper HL reference
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric above 158.60 is an abrupt headline risk
21:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling late NY · RSI 77 · price 158.727
HH/HL chain from 157.75; tight 158.70–158.77 hold above 158.60 breakout.
London open dipped below the Asian range to 157.75, then the pair trended higher. The JOLTS and factory orders beats at 15:00 UTC drove the break to 158.60, and late NY extended to a 158.77 session high above that breakout level. Price is now holding a tight range at 158.70–158.77 after NY close, with RSI(14) near 77 cooling as the bars flatten.
Support: 158.70, 158.60, 158.41
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.60 breakout level marks a false break and reopens the 158.41 swing low
Break of the 158.77 session high opens the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the 158.70 tight range floor ends the late-session consolidation
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric above 158.60 risks an abrupt JPY spike
HH/HL chain from the NY open dip; tight flag-like hold above the broken 158.60 range top.
London broke the Asian range high near 157.95. After the NY-open dip held at 157.98, USD/JPY cleared the london high at 158.30 and the 158.60 range top, both caps cited in the digest, on firm US data and Iran-driven oil strength, printing a session high at 158.766. Late NY has since compressed in a 158.70–158.77 band, RSI(14) near 71, with the rising support from the ny swing low at 158.41 intact.
Support: 158.60, 158.413, 158.30
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC; a Democratic Senate call could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 158.60 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.41 ny swing low breaks the intraday HL chain
Acceptance above the 158.766 session high exposes the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric is a live risk
21:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at highs · RSI 70 · price 158.736
HH/HL chain since the London low, tight consolidation above the 158.60 range top.
London swept the Asian low at 157.75 and price has built higher highs since. The post-JOLTS beat spike tagged the 158.60 range top, and the late-NY push cleared it to a 158.77 session high. Price is now holding a tight 158.70–158.75 band after the NY close, with RSI(14) near 70 and the bars shrinking.
Support: 158.60, 158.413, 157.979
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
A return below the 158.60 range top would mark the breakout as a false break, with the 158.41 swing low next
A close above the 158.77 session high extends the HH chain toward the 159.00 round number
Loss of the NY trendline from the 157.98 NY low breaks the HL sequence
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read, especially a Senate surprise
Japanese intervention rhetoric is a gap risk with price above the 158.60 range top
A pullback toward the 61.8% of the NY leg fib would test the depth of the advance
Higher lows since the 157.98 NY low; tight consolidation just above the 158.60 breakout level.
London broke the Asian range high at 157.97 and a JOLTS beat lifted the pair through NY to the 158.60 range top. A late-NY break of that level set a session high at 158.766. Price has since stalled in a 158.70–158.77 consolidation, with the consol low at 158.70 holding and RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s.
Support: 158.70, 158.60, 158.413
Resistance: 158.766, 158.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.60 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.41 swing low, near the 38.2% retracement of the 157.98–158.77 NY leg, breaks the higher-low chain
A clean break of the session high with the consol low intact opens the 158.80 round number
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC and MoF intervention rhetoric above 158.60 could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since London open, holding above broken 158.60.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since the London-open low at 157.751, and the NY dip held at the ny low of 157.979. Firm US data and oil lifted price through the 158.60 prior high, the digest's range top. Late NY is now compressing just under the 158.766 session high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~66 and the 158.413 swing low as the last higher low.
Support: 158.604, 158.413, 157.979
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.60 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.413 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
A clean push through the 158.766 session high opens the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric is in focus
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read, especially a Senate surprise
Higher-low chain from the London low; 158.60 cleared, tight band at session highs.
The NY leg from the 157.979 NY-open low ran through the 158.60 breakout level after the 15:00 UTC JOLTS beat, printing a 158.766 session high. Higher lows at 157.979 and the 158.413 swing low keep the rising trendline from the London low intact. Late in NY, price is compressing in a 158.70–158.77 band with RSI(14) near 73 and flattening.
Support: 158.60, 158.413, 158.30
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.60 breakout level would turn the move into a false break
Failure to hold the 158.413 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.30 london high
A clear break of the 158.766 session high opens the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric caps the upside
US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending into late NY · RSI 70 · price 158.707
Higher highs and higher lows since the 157.751 London low; 158.60 cleared.
The JOLTS beat at 15:00 UTC lifted the pair from the 157.979 NY low through the 158.30 london high to a 158.60 spike. A late-NY extension then cleared that prior high, the top of the digest's range, and printed a 158.766 session high. RSI(14) is near 70 and ATR is about 5 pips as the window ends in the NY close; the higher-low chain holds above the London-to-NY trendline.
Support: 158.60, 158.413, 158.30
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.60 prior high puts the 158.413 swing low and the 38.2% NY swing fib back in play
Close below the 158.30 london high breaks the NY higher-low chain
Close above the 158.766 session high extends the sequence toward 159.00 psych
Midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric above the 158.60 range top is an abrupt-reversal risk
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 76 · price 158.713
HH/HL chain since London; 158.60 range top broken.
London broke the 157.79–157.95 Asian range from a 157.75 low and ran to a 158.30 london high. The NY-open dip to 157.98 was absorbed, and the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats at 15:00 UTC lifted the pair to 158.60. Late NY pushed through that range top to a 158.77 session high, with RSI(14) near 76 and the 158.41 swing low as the last pullback pivot.
Support: 158.60, 158.41, 158.30
Resistance: 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.60 range top would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 158.41 swing low breaks the HL chain and opens the 158.30 london high
Acceptance above the 158.77 session high puts the 159.00 round number in play, where MoF intervention rhetoric could intensify
US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read, especially a Senate flip
NY leg fib 38.2% sits near 158.47, just above the swing low
Higher highs and higher lows since the London-open low; late-NY break above the 158.60 prior high.
London opened with a sweep of the Asian low at 157.75, then climbed steadily. The NY-open dip held a higher low at 157.98 on rising support, and the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats lifted the pair through the 158.30 London high. A late-NY break of the 158.60 prior high has price pressing a fresh session high near 158.77, with RSI(14) near 79 after a tight consolidation at 158.41–158.53.
Support: 158.60, 158.41, 158.30
Resistance: 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.60 prior high would mark the late-NY breakout as a false break
Losing the 158.41 consol low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, would break the higher-low chain and expose the 158.30 London high
158.60 is the flagged MoF intervention zone; an abrupt JPY spike is a live risk while price holds above it
The session high at 158.77 and the 159.00 round number are the next upside references
US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 67 · price 158.64
Higher lows from 158.41 swing low, fresh session high at 158.65 late NY.
London broke out of the 157.75–157.97 Asian range, and the JOLTS and factory orders beats at 15:00 UTC drove the leg to 158.60. Late NY has printed a fresh session high at 158.65 off the pm base and higher lows from the 158.41 swing low. This leaves price at the 158.60 range top, where MoF intervention talk sits, with RSI(14) at 67.
Support: 158.47, 158.41, 158.30
Resistance: 158.65, 159.00
What it said to watch
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could abruptly shift this read in thin late-session liquidity
Acceptance above the 158.65 session high clears the 158.60 range top and opens the path to the 159.00 round number, where intervention risk rises
M15 close below the 158.47 pm base breaks the pm higher lows line and exposes the 158.41 swing low
Loss of the 158.30 london high, near the 38–50% NY leg fib zone, unwinds most of the post-data move
18:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 65 · price 158.621
HH/HL chain since London open; late-NY break of 158.47–158.53 consolidation to new session high.
London open swept below the 157.79–157.97 Asian range to 157.75, and the pair has since made higher lows. The 13:45 UTC dip held 157.98, and the JOLTS and factory-orders beats at 15:00 UTC drove a 22-pip bar through the 158.27 breakout pt. Late in the NY session, price broke the 158.47–158.53 consolidation and printed a new session high at 158.62, right at the 158.60 range top. RSI(14) is near 65, not stretched.
Support: 158.47, 158.41, 158.27
Resistance: 158.62
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 158.62 session high clears the 158.60 range top, where MoF intervention risk rises
Loss of the 158.47 consol low turns the break into a false break; below the 158.41 swing low the HH/HL chain breaks
A drop back under the 158.27 breakout pt puts the London-NY trendline in play
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read in Asia
HH/HL chain from 157.75 London low; tight 158.41–158.55 shelf under 158.60.
London swept the Asian low to 157.75, then broke the Asian high. NY dipped to a 157.98 NY low before the JOLTS beat drove a run to a 158.60 session high. The post-JOLTS pullback low at 158.41 held, and price is now coiling just under that high late in NY. 158.60 also marks the cited range top where MoF intervention talk has capped JPY weakness.
Support: 158.413, 158.30, 157.979
Resistance: 158.604
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 session high breaks the range top; intervention headline risk is elevated there
Loss of the 158.41 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.37 and the 158.30 London high
Break below the 157.98 NY low unwinds the whole NY leg
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below range top · RSI 58 · price 158.486
Higher lows from 157.75; post-breakout band 158.41–158.53 under 158.60.
London lifted off the 157.75 Asian-range low to a 158.30 London high. A NY-open dip to the 157.98 NY low was absorbed before the JOLTS and factory-orders beats at 15:00 UTC drove a breakout to the 158.60 range top, which is also the MoF intervention zone flagged in the macro read. Rejection there has left price compressing late in the NY session between the 158.41 pullback low and the 158.53 band top, with RSI(14) cooled to ~58.
Support: 158.41, 158.30, 157.98
Resistance: 158.53, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 range top breaks the 157.00–158.60 range; intervention rhetoric typically intensifies there
Loss of the 158.41 pullback low exposes the 158.30 London high near the 38.2% fib of the NY leg
A break of the rising lows trendline from 157.75 would end the intraday higher-low chain
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC land in the Asia session and could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London open; tight post-spike range after London close.
USD/JPY swept the Asian low at the London open, then a NY-open rally from 157.98 ran to a 158.60 session high on firm US data and oil-driven yen weakness. After London close, price is compressing between the 158.41 range low and the 158.53 range high, well above the 38.2% retracement of that rally.
Support: 158.413, 158.30, 157.979
Resistance: 158.529, 158.604
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.41 range low exposes the 158.30 London high and the 38.2% fib near 158.37
Acceptance above the 158.60 session high takes the pair through the range top where MoF intervention warnings act as a cap
A break of the 157.98 NY low and the rising trendline negates the intraday higher-low sequence
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London low; tight consolidation under session high.
London swept the Asian low to 157.75, then printed higher highs and higher lows. The JOLTS and Factory Orders beats at 15:00 UTC lifted the pair to a 158.60 session high, the range top flagged in MoF intervention talk. Late NY is compressing between the 158.41 consol low and the 158.53 consol top, with RSI(14) cooling into the low 60s.
Support: 158.41, 158.30, 157.98
Resistance: 158.53, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 session high breaks the range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric is the likely cap
Failure to hold the 158.41 consol low exposes the 158.30 prior high and the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg
A move back under the 157.98 ny low and rising support breaks the HL chain
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read in Asia hours
HH/HL chain from the 157.75 London low; post-spike compression 158.41–158.53.
London broke the 157.75–157.95 Asian range to the upside, and the NY low at 157.98 held before the JOLTS beat spiked price to a 158.60 session high. Price was rejected at that range top, where MoF intervention talk caps the pair, and has compressed between the 158.41 pullback low and 158.53 since London close. RSI(14) is cooling to ~65.
Support: 158.413, 158.30, 157.979
Resistance: 158.604, 158.529
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 session high clears the range top, where intervention rhetoric becomes the main risk
Loss of the 158.41 pullback low exposes the 158.30 london high, near the 50% of the ny leg fib
A break of rising support from 157.75 through the 157.98 ny low ends the HH/HL chain
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London; post-spike consolidation 158.41–158.53.
JOLTS and factory orders beat at 15:00 UTC and lifted the pair from 158.27 to a 158.60 session high, the top of the widely cited 157.00–158.60 range, before a pullback low at 158.41. Late NY trade is compressing at 158.41–158.53, holding above the 158.30 London high, with RSI(14) cooled to ~69 and the rising support line from the London and NY lows intact.
Support: 158.41, 158.30, 157.98
Resistance: 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 session high breaks the range top. MoF intervention rhetoric is concentrated there
Failure to hold the 158.41 pullback low exposes the 158.30 london high and the 38.2% fib near 158.37
Break of the rising support line toward the 157.98 ny low would end the higher-low sequence
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below range top · RSI 70 · price 158.515
Higher lows since London open; 158.41–158.52 consolidation after rejection at 158.60.
London swept the Asian low at 157.75, then broke the 157.95 Asian range high and extended to a 158.30 London high. The NY-open dip held at the 157.98 NY low before the JOLTS and factory orders beats drove a spike to 158.60, where the range top capped price near the intervention-sensitive zone. Since London close, price has been holding 158.41–158.52 above the pullback low, with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 158.413, 158.30, 157.979
Resistance: 158.604
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 range top would break the cap tied to MoF intervention warnings
Loss of the 158.41 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.36 and the 158.30 london high
Break of the 157.98 ny low and the rising higher-low trendline would end the intraday uptrend read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low; tight 158.41–158.50 hold after rejection at 158.60.
London swept below the Asian range (157.79–157.95) to 157.75, then built higher lows. A dip to the 157.98 ny low held, and the 15:00 UTC JOLTS and Factory Orders beats drove a breakout through the 158.30 london high to a 158.60 session high. Price was rejected there, at the cited range top where MoF intervention talk is active, and has since compressed between the 158.41 pullback low and the 158.50 round number late in the NY session.
Support: 158.413, 158.30, 157.979
Resistance: 158.50, 158.604
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 session high breaks the rejection and extends the HH chain
Failure at the 158.41 pullback low opens a retest of the 158.30 london high, near the 38.2% fib of the london-ny leg
A break of rising support from the London low (near 158.09) or the 157.98 ny low ends the higher-low sequence
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC and any MoF/Katayama escalation near 158.60 could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the London open low; shallow pullback from 158.60.
London open swept the Asian range low at 157.75 and built a higher-low chain, with the NY low at 157.98 holding above the rising trendline. The JOLTS and Factory Orders beats at 15:00 UTC lifted price through the 158.30 prior high to a 158.60 session high, where supply capped the move. Price is now holding 158.45 between the 158.41 pullback low and the 158.50 psych level, with RSI(14) cooled to ~62.
Support: 158.41, 158.30, 157.98
Resistance: 158.50, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.30 prior high would mark a failed breakout
Break of the 158.41 pullback low opens a deeper fib retracement toward the 50% near 158.29
Acceptance above the 158.60 session high runs into active MoF intervention rhetoric
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the rising trendline from the London open low breaks the higher-low chain
16:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 59 · price 158.425
Higher lows since 157.75; London high 158.30 broken, lower high under 158.60.
London lifted USDJPY out of the 157.79–157.97 Asian range from a 157.75 low. Early NY dipped to 157.98 and held, then the 15:00 UTC JOLTS and Factory Orders beats broke the 158.30 London high and ran price to a 158.60 session high. Price has since printed a 158.57 lower high and is easing toward 158.42, with RSI(14) cooling to ~59.
Support: 158.30, 158.19, 157.98
Resistance: 158.57, 158.60
What it said to watch
Holding the 158.30 London high, near the 38.2% fib, keeps the breakout intact. An M15 close back below it reopens the 158.19 pullback low.
Rejection at the 158.60 session high sits where MoF intervention rhetoric is active. A close above it extends the higher-high chain.
A break of the rising-lows trendline and the 157.98 NY low would negate the intraday uptrend.
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after data spike · RSI 66 · price 158.492
Higher lows from London low; 158.30 prior high broken on JOLTS.
Pair left the 157.79–157.95 Asian range from a 157.75 London low and printed higher lows, including a dip to the 157.98 ny low that held. The JOLTS and Factory Orders beats at 15:00 UTC drove a break of the 158.30 prior high and a tag of 158.60, the top of the cited 1–3 week band, where the session high now caps. RSI(14) is cooling from short-term hot levels.
Support: 158.30, 157.98
Resistance: 158.604
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.30 prior high (also the fib 38.2% area) would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 158.60 session high puts price in the zone where MoF intervention rhetoric is active
A break of the London trendline and the 157.98 ny low would end the higher-low sequence
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended after data spike · RSI 71 · price 158.564
Higher-low chain from 157.75 London low, breakout above 158.30 London high.
London swept the Asian low to 157.75 and trended to a 158.30 London high. A NY-open dip to 157.98 was bought, then the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats at 15:00 UTC drove a breakout to a 158.60 session high. Price sits just under that high, the top of the 158.20–158.60 band where intervention rhetoric is active, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 158.30, 158.20, 157.98
Resistance: 158.60
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 158.60 session high and a close back below the 158.30 London high would mark a false break
M15 close above 158.60 extends the breakout into the zone where MoF intervention risk escalates
A slip below the 158.20 band floor, then 157.98 NY low, breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC and any MoF/Katayama language could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 71 · price 158.564
London broke Asian range high, NY higher low, then data-driven breakout.
London swept the Asian low at 157.75, broke the Asian range high and rallied to a 158.30 London high. The early NY dip held a higher low at 157.98, then the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats drove a breakout to the 158.60 session high. RSI(14) is near 71, and 158.30 now lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the London rally.
Support: 158.30, 158.18, 157.98
Resistance: 158.60, 159.00
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 158.60 session high: this is the top of UOB's band, where MoF intervention rhetoric is active
An M15 close back below the 158.30 London high turns the breakout into a false break
A close above 158.60 opens the path to the 159.00 round number, though a sharp spike raises intervention risk
A break of the 158.18 50% fib exposes the 157.98 NY low; losing that low ends the higher lows chain
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 69 · price 158.483
HH/HL chain; London high at 158.30 broken in NY.
The London leg swept the Asian low at 157.75, cleared the 157.95 Asian high and ran to 158.30. The NY open pullback held the 157.98 ny low, then the 15:00 UTC JOLTS-hour bar broke the London high to a 158.50 session high. Price now sits about 10 pips under the 158.60 band top, with Japanese intervention warnings in play, and RSI(14) at 69 is firm but not extreme.
Support: 158.30, 157.98
Resistance: 158.50, 158.60
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.30 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.98 ny low breaks the rising lows trendline and the HH/HL chain
The 158.60 band top is the area where MoF intervention rhetoric or rate checks could trigger rejection
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 157.75 London low; NY higher low at 157.98, price back at the 158.30 session high.
London lifted USD/JPY from 157.75 through the Asian high and 158.00 to a 158.30 session high, in line with the digest's Fed-hike and ISM-beat yen weakness. The 13:15–13:30 UTC NY-open flush to the 157.98 NY low held near the 61.8% retrace. Price has since retraced the entire drop and is retesting 158.30, with the pre-NY lows at 158.19 now first support.
Support: 158.19, 157.98, 157.95
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.60 upper band, where intervention risk rises
Slip below the 158.19 pre-NY lows puts the 157.98 NY low and 157.95 Asian high back in play; a break of the rising lows line ends the HL chain
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher in London, pullback held above prior range top.
London dipped to a 157.75 london low, then broke the 157.79–157.95 Asian range and ran to a 158.30 session high as the yen softened on Fed hike bets. The NY-open pullback stalled at a 157.98 ny low near the 61.8% fib of the London rally and just above the asian high. Price has rebuilt to 158.24, with a lower high at 158.29 still capping.
Support: 157.98, 157.95, 157.75
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.30 session high reopens the 158.60 range top, where intervention rhetoric has capped
Loss of the 157.98 ny low and rising support breaks the London higher-low chain and puts the asian high, then the london low, back in play
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are a volatility risk for the session close
London breakout above Asian range, NY-open retest of 158.00 held.
London cleared the asian high at 157.95 and the 158.00 round number, extending to a 158.30 session high as the yen stayed soft. The NY-open dip briefly lost 158.00 to 157.98, holding just above the 61.8% fib of the London leg and on rising support, with price now back at 158.19 and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 158.00, 157.95
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number and rising support undoes the London breakout and puts the asian high at 157.95 back in play
Close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.60 upper band, where intervention rhetoric is flagged
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could reset the intraday range
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back off session high · RSI 54 · price 158.189
London breakout above prior high, higher low held on NY-open retest.
London swept the Asian range low into the 157.75 london low, then broke the 157.95–157.97 prior high and ran to a 158.30 session high as the yen softened on Fed hike bets. A sharp drop into the NY open held the 157.98 ny low, a retest of the breakout zone near the 61.8% fib. Price has since recovered to 158.19, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 157.98, 157.75
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.98 ny low negates the retest and exposes the 157.75 london low
Close above the 158.30 session high reopens the 158.60 upper band, where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 157.75 Asian low; NY dip to 157.98 held as a higher low.
London broke the Asian range and Monday's 157.97 high, lifting USD/JPY to a 158.30 session high on Fed hike bets. Early NY then flushed to a 157.98 NY low, retesting that breakout near the 61.8% fib, and was bought back above the 38.2% fib at 158.09 and EMA20 at about 158.14. RSI(14) is neutral at about 51.
Support: 158.09, 157.98, 157.75
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.30 session high reopens the 158.60 range top, where intervention risk builds
Failure to hold the 157.98 NY low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.75 Asian low
Losing the 38.2% fib at 158.09 puts the 157.98 retest back in play
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Midterm results from around 23:00 UTC are an overnight volatility risk
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back at NY open · RSI 46 · price 158.054
London leg 157.75→158.30, now retesting the 158.00 breakout.
London swept the Asian low at 157.75, then broke the asian high and 158.00 on yen softness and Fed-hike pricing. That leg printed a 158.30 session high late morning. The first hour of NY dropped about 20 pips back to the ema50 near 158.04, sitting just above the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) cooled to around 46.
Support: 158.04, 158.00, 157.97
Resistance: 158.19, 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number puts the 61.8% fib and asian high near 157.97 in play, unwinding the London breakout
Reclaim of the 158.19 pullback low reopens the 158.30 session high
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then midterm results from ~23:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric caps the move into the 158.60 range top
13:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 39 · price 158.054
London breakout above Asian range, now retracing toward the 158.00 break level.
London swept below the Asian range to a 157.75 London low, then broke through the 157.95 Asian high and 158.00 to a 158.30 session high on firm USD and soft JPY. Two rejections near 158.30 were followed by an 11-pip drop into the NY open, and price is now retesting the 158.00 round number near the 50% fib. RSI(14) is around 39 and price sits on EMA50.
Support: 158.00, 157.95, 157.75
Resistance: 158.19, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number puts price back toward the 157.95 Asian high and the 61.8% fib
Reclaiming the 158.19 pullback low reopens a test of the 158.30 session high
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then midterm results from ~23:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric escalating with price near 158.30 adds snap-back risk
London breakout above Asian range, now consolidating 158.19–158.30.
London broke the 157.75–157.95 Asian range and the 158.00 round number, with the London leg peaking at the 158.30 session high as Iran strike reports and Fed-hike pricing lifted USD. Since late morning price has been holding a tight 158.19–158.30 band ahead of the NY open, the pullback low sitting just above the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~61 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 158.19, 158.04, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.19 pullback low opens a deeper retracement toward the 158.04 breakout base, near the 38.2% fib of the London leg
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number puts price back toward the top of the Asian range
Break of the 158.30 session high exposes 158.60, the range top cited in the digest, where Japanese intervention rhetoric is in focus
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then overnight midterm results, could materially shift this read
London breakout through 158.00, now a tight 158.19–158.30 range below the session high.
London open briefly dipped below the Asian range to a 157.75 London low, then reversed and broke the 158.00 round number to a 158.30 session high on Fed-hike bets and Iran headlines. Price has held a 158.19–158.30 range for two hours into the London-NY transition, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 65.
Support: 158.19, 158.00, 157.75
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.19 range low exposes the 158.00 round number, near the 50% fib of the London rally
Failure to hold 158.00 puts the 157.75 London low back in play and undoes the breakout
Acceptance above the 158.30 session high brings the 158.60 band top into view, where MoF intervention rhetoric is focused
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
HH/HL leg from 157.75 London low, now a tight 158.19–158.30 range.
London swept below the 157.79–157.97 Asian range to 157.75, then ran 55 pips through the Asian high and the 158.00 round number. The leg topped at the 158.30 session high, helped by Monday's ISM beat and Fed hike bets. Price has been coiling between the 158.19 range low and 158.30 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) cooling to 68.
Support: 158.19, 158.09, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.19 range low exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.09 and the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.60 band top, where Japanese intervention warnings cluster
Escalation in MoF/Katayama language near 158.30–158.60 could trigger a sharp snap-back
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then midterm results overnight, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the London low; Asian range top broken.
Early London dipped to 157.75, then broke the 157.79–157.97 Asian range top and 158.00 on Fed-hike-driven USD/JPY demand, printing a 158.30 session high. Price is now holding the 158.20 psych area into the NY open, with RSI(14) easing from about 71 and Japanese intervention warnings in the background.
Support: 158.20, 158.16, 157.97
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.16 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain; a 38.2% fib retrace sits near 158.09
Loss of the 157.97 range top puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the breakout read
Acceptance above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.60 band top, where MoF intervention risk escalates
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback off the high · RSI 67 · price 158.23
London broke the Asian range and prior high; higher-low chain intact above 158.16.
London cleared the 157.79–157.95 Asian range and the 157.96 prior high, and the London leg ran 55 pips to a 158.30 session high, helped by Monday's ISM beat and Fed hike bets. Price is easing to 158.23 into the 158.20–158.60 intervention-warning zone, with RSI(14) cooling from the high 70s and the 158.16 swing low still intact.
Support: 158.16, 158.04, 157.96
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.16 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 158.04 pullback low exposes the 157.96 prior high, which sits near the 61.8% retrace of the London leg
Acceptance above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.60 band top, where MoF intervention rhetoric could escalate
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, early in NY hours, could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight carry gap risk for USD
London HH/HL chain off 157.75; first pullback from 158.30 session high.
London open swept the Asian low to 157.75, then broke through the asian high near 157.95 and the 158.00 round number to a 158.30 session high, driven by yen softness and Fed-hike pricing. RSI(14) has eased from near 78 to 69 as price pulls back to 158.24 ahead of the NY open. The 158.17 swing low is the nearest higher low.
Support: 158.165, 158.00, 157.95
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.17 swing low breaks the London HH/HL chain and exposes the 158.00 round number and the 50% retrace near 158.03
An M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.60 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped the move
A return below the asian high at 157.95 would mark the breakout as a false break
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then overnight midterm results, could shift this read
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 81 · price 158.296
London breakout above Asian range, HH/HL chain intact.
London lifted USD/JPY from the 157.75 London low through the 157.97 Asian high and the 158.00 cap, running to a 158.30 session high on revived Fed-hike bets after the ISM beat. RSI(14) is near 81 with only one shallow dip to the 158.165 pullback low, and price is now about 30 pips below the 158.60 range top.
Support: 158.165, 157.97, 157.75
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
A break below the 158.165 pullback low ends the HH/HL chain and opens the 38.2% fib near 158.09
A close back under the 157.97 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Intervention rhetoric from Katayama/MoF risks a fast reversal on any approach to the 158.60 range top
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late London · RSI 84 · price 158.29
London range break above Asian high, HH/HL chain intact.
London open dipped below the Asian range to 157.751, then reversed through the 157.95 Asian high and extended to a 158.296 session high as Fed-hike bets underpin USD. RSI(14) near 84 is stretched, and the rally runs toward the 158.60 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric is the flagged risk.
Support: 158.165, 157.95, 157.751
Resistance: 158.296, 158.60
What it said to watch
Holding the 158.165 pullback low keeps the HH/HL chain and rising trendline intact
A return below the 157.95 Asian high (near the 61.8% fib) negates the London breakout
Approach to the 158.60 range top raises MoF verbal-warning or intervention risk
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC in NY hours could shift the read
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into range cap · RSI 76 · price 158.247
HH/HL chain since London low, Asian range broken higher.
London opened by sweeping the Asian low to 157.75, then reversed through the 157.95 Asian high and the 158.00 round number. The HH/HL chain now sits at a 158.25 session high, with RSI(14) near 76. The pair is pressing the 158.20–158.60 cap zone as the ISM-driven Fed-hike repricing outweighs yen demand, while MoF warnings hang over the range top.
Support: 158.163, 158.00, 157.952
Resistance: 158.251, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.16 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rally trendline
Loss of the 158.00 round number brings the 50% fib of the London rally and the 157.95 Asian high into play
A push toward the 158.60 range top raises MoF intervention headline risk
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC (f/c 7.13M) during NY hours could materially shift this read
London breakout above Asian range, HH/HL chain stalling at 158.20.
London open dipped below the 157.79–157.95 Asian range to a london low at 157.75, then rallied 45 pips through the asian high and the 158.00 round number as ISM-driven Fed-hike repricing kept the dollar leg firm against the yen. The advance has flattened into a tight shelf under the 158.20 session high, with RSI(14) near 70 heading into the London-NY transition.
Support: 158.00, 157.95, 157.751
Resistance: 158.201, 158.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number puts the asian high at 157.95 back in play and weakens the breakout read
M15 close above the 158.20 session high opens the path toward the 158.60 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric has been concentrated
Break of the London rising trendline exposes the fib 50% near 157.98
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Wednesday's midterm results could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 79 · price 158.19
London breakout above the Asian range, now flagging just under 158.20.
London opened with a dip below the Asian range to the 157.75 london low, then reversed into a 45-pip London rally through the 157.95 asian high and the prior 24h top as Fed-hike pricing kept the yen soft. Price is now flat just under the 158.20 session high, the top of the digest's cap zone, with RSI(14) near 79. The only dip so far held at the 158.10 pullback low.
Support: 158.10, 157.95, 157.75
Resistance: 158.20, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 session high extends the breakout toward 158.60, where intervention rhetoric from Tokyo has been concentrated
Loss of the 158.10 pullback low points to a deeper retrace of the London rally
Return below the 157.95 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, plus midterm headlines, could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into the session high · RSI 79 · price 158.195
London breakout above Asian range, HH/HL chain since 157.75.
London rallied from the 157.75 London low through the Asian high at 157.95 and cleared 158.00, extending to a 158.20 session high with RSI(14) near 79. The last pullback low at 158.10 held, but the move is pressing the 158.00-158.20 cap where Katayama's FX warnings have kept the topside contained.
Support: 158.10, 157.95, 157.75
Resistance: 158.20, 158.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.10 pullback low opens a retest of the 157.95 Asian high, near the 50% fib
M15 close back below 157.95 turns the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 158.20 session high puts the 158.60 range top in play, where MoF intervention risk rises
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then midterm results, could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 79 · price 158.188
London broke above the Asian range, HH/HL chain from 157.75.
Early London dipped below the Asian range to a London low at 157.75. Price then reversed through the 157.95 Asian high and the 158.00 round number to a session high at 158.19, extending past the prior 158.00 cap while the digest notes softer USD tone and Katayama's intervention warnings. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched after nine of the last fourteen bars closed higher, with the rally tracing a rising support line.
Support: 158.00, 157.95, 157.75
Resistance: 158.194, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number reopens the 157.95 Asian high and fades the breakout
Failure to clear the session high at 158.19 leaves a stall under UOB's 158.20 cap
Approach to the 158.60 band top raises MoF intervention-rhetoric risk
A break of the rising support line from the London low signals momentum is fading
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, plus midterm headlines, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher after London-open dip; higher-low chain since 157.75.
London opened with a dip below the Asian range to the 157.75 london low, then reversed into a 40-pip rally through the 157.95 asian high and the 158.00 prior high, tagging a 158.15 session high. RSI(14) near 75 as price stalls just under the 158.20 range cap, with broad USD softness not passing through to the pair.
Support: 158.00, 157.95, 157.75
Resistance: 158.15, 158.20, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the 157.95 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break inside the Asian range
Holding the 158.00 prior high as support keeps the higher-low chain intact; a break of the London trend line exposes the 50% fib near 157.95
Acceptance above the 158.20 range cap opens 158.60, the mof wall where intervention rhetoric has concentrated
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then midterm results Wed, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low; Asian range broken higher.
London opened with a dip below the Asian low to the 157.75 London low. A nine-bar HH/HL London rally then cleared the 157.97 Asian high and 158.00 psych, printing a 158.15 session high with RSI(14) near 75. The yen's failure to gain from a softer USD backdrop drove the leg, which now trades inside the 158.00–158.60 zone where MoF intervention warnings have concentrated.
Support: 158.00, 157.97, 157.75
Resistance: 158.15, 158.60
What it said to watch
Hold of 158.00 psych, also the 38.2% retrace of the London rally, keeps the breakout intact
M15 close back below the 157.97 Asian high would mark a false break
Break of the rising trendline from the 157.75 London low ends the HH/HL chain
158.60 band top is the area where intervention rhetoric should escalate; watch for rejection or break there
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results due Wed could materially shift this read
London breakout above Asian range and 158.00 after a sweep of the Asian low.
Early London dipped under the Asian low to a london low at 157.751, then the London leg ran about 36 pips through the asian high at 157.95 and the 158.00 round number to a session high at 158.112. RSI(14) is near 76, hot but short of extreme. The pair is pressing into the intervention-sensitive zone below the 158.60 band top despite the softer USD tone in the digest.
Support: 158.00, 157.95, 157.751
Resistance: 158.112, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number puts price back inside Monday's 157.63–158.00 range
Loss of the asian high at 157.95 erases the London leg breakout
Approach toward the 158.60 band top is where MoF intervention rhetoric is flagged to escalate
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Stall below the session high at 158.112 with RSI rolling over from 76 would mark momentum fading
Asian range 157.79–157.95 broken higher after a pre-London dip, now higher lows.
USD/JPY dipped below the Asian low to a 157.75 swing low before London, then rallied through the 157.95 Asian high and the 158.00 round number to a 158.06 session high. RSI(14) sits near 69. The yen is softening even as USD slips elsewhere, while Katayama's intervention warnings hang over the 158.00 area; the 38.2% retrace of the London rise lines up with the Asian high.
Support: 158.00, 157.95, 157.751
Resistance: 158.06, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.95 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break and returns price to the Asian range
Holding the 158.00 round number on a retest keeps the higher lows from the 157.75 swing low intact
Extension above the 158.06 session high toward the 158.60 range top raises the risk of Tokyo intervention headlines
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and US midterm headlines could materially shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low chain off the London low; Asian range broken to the upside.
Early London swept below the Asian low to a 157.751 swing low, then rallied through the 157.95 asian high and is pressing Monday's 157.998 prior high at the 158.00 cap. That cap is where Katayama's intervention warnings sit. The yen stays soft even with USD weaker elsewhere, and RSI(14) at 68 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 157.952, 157.751, 157.631
Resistance: 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 prior high breaks the two-session cap at 158.00; MoF rhetoric risk rises into 158.60
Slip back below the 157.95 asian high turns the break into a false break and puts the 157.79–157.95 range back in play
Failure to hold the 157.751 swing low, the base of the london rally, reopens the 157.631 monday low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results could shift the USD leg of this read
08:46 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from London low · RSI 57 · price 157.928
Asian range low swept at London open then reclaimed; price back under Asian high.
London open broke below the 157.79 asian low to a 157.751 london low. That break failed and price rebounded to 157.945, back inside the 157.79–157.95 Asian range, with the 157.86 pivot acting as the base. The 158.00 psych cap, near yesterday's 157.998 high, has held all session as intervention warnings from Katayama limit upside even with the USD soft elsewhere.
Support: 157.86, 157.79, 157.751
Resistance: 157.952, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.952 asian high exposes the 158.00 psych cap; a break there shifts the read away from range
Close back below the 157.86 pivot puts the london rebound fib 61.8% at ~157.825 and the 157.79 asian low back in play
Failure to hold the 157.751 london low turns the false break into a range break lower
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read; MoF rhetoric near 158.00 is a two-way risk
08:31 UTC
Range, London rebound to upper edge · RSI 58 · price 157.933
157.75–157.97 range; London swept the Asian low and reversed.
London open swept the Asian low near 157.79 to a 157.751 session low, then rebounded to 157.94, back at the top of the range just under the 157.966 Asian high. Supply has capped every approach to 158.00 since yesterday's 157.998 prior high, with Tokyo's intervention warnings hanging over that area.
Support: 157.848, 157.751, 157.631
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 prior high and 158.00 breaks the range ceiling; sharper MoF rhetoric is likely if it extends
Failure to hold the 50% retrace at 157.848 puts the 157.751 session low back in play
A loss of 157.751 exposes yesterday's 157.631 prior low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight midterm and US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.79–157.95 intact after a London-open false break lower.
Early London swept the asian low at 157.79 down to 157.75, then reclaimed it fast. Price is back near 157.88, around the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high to London low drop, with RSI(14) flat at 50. The 158.00 prior high has capped every advance since yesterday, in line with Tokyo's intervention warnings.
Support: 157.788, 157.751, 157.631
Resistance: 157.952, 157.998
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.75 london low negates the false break and exposes the 157.63 prior low
A break of the 157.95 asian high brings the 158.00 prior high and the intervention-warning zone back into play
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Sideways, mild drift lower off Asian highs · RSI 49 · price 157.874
Range inside prior-day 157.63–158.00, London false break of Asian low.
At London open, price broke below the 157.788 Asian low, printed 157.751, then reclaimed it fast and is back near 157.87. Price is still boxed inside the prior-day 157.631–157.998 range. Lower highs from the 157.952 Asian high, plus Katayama's intervention warnings near the 158 cap, have kept the upside contained.
Support: 157.788, 157.751, 157.631
Resistance: 157.952, 157.998
What it said to watch
A close back below the 157.751 London low would confirm a range break lower toward the 157.631 prior low
A move through the descending highs and the 157.952 Asian high would put the 158 cap back in play, where MoF rhetoric has been limiting gains
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and the overnight midterm results could shift the broad USD read
07:46 UTC
Intraday drift lower inside a broader range · RSI 39 · price 157.807
Lower highs since Asia, Asian low probed pre-London.
USDJPY has printed steady lower highs under the 157.952 Asian high, consolidating below 158.00 as intervention rhetoric caps the topside. The pre-London dip swept the 157.788 Asian low to a 157.751 session low before an early recovery to 157.81. RSI(14) is near 39, with no extreme.
Support: 157.788, 157.751, 157.631
Resistance: 157.882, 157.952, 157.998
What it said to watch
Close back above the descending trendline and 157.882 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 157.751 session low exposes Monday's 157.631 NY low
London open at 08:00 UTC decides whether the Asian low sweep holds or extends
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight midterm results could reprice the pair toward the 157.998 prior high or the range floor
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; Asian range low probed.
Asia ground lower in a chain of lower highs from 157.94. Ahead of the London open, the 07:15 UTC bar probed just under the 157.788 Asian range low to a 157.768 session low, leaving price at the 50% retrace of Monday's ISM-driven 157.631–157.966 leg with RSI(14) near 35. Softer oil is weighing on the dollar, while Tokyo's intervention rhetoric keeps the topside boxed below the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.768, 157.631
Resistance: 157.882, 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.768 session low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 157.631 swing low
A recovery above the 157.882 lower high breaks the Asia lower highs trendline
A push through the 157.966 Asian high toward the 158.00 round number brings MoF intervention rhetoric back into play
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower inside Asian range · RSI 38 · price 157.824
Lower highs since 01:30 UTC pressing onto the Asian low, 157.80–157.95.
Late Asia session, ahead of the London open. Price is stuck in a tight 157.80–157.95 Asian range below the 158.00 prior high, and lower highs since 01:30 UTC have it pressing on the Asian low. RSI(14) near 38 and ATR around 4 pips show a compressed tape as midterm results roll in. MoF intervention rhetoric has capped follow-through near 158.00.
Support: 157.80, 157.735, 157.631
Resistance: 157.882, 157.952, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.80 Asian low breaks the range and exposes the 157.73 NY pivot, then the 157.63 NY low
Close above the 157.88 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 157.95 Asian high
A push through the 158.00 prior high would put intervention headlines in play
Midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London opens with USDJPY in the lower half of the 157.79–157.95 Asian range, after a chain of lower highs from the asian high left the latest lower high at 157.88. RSI(14) is near 38. The pair is consolidating below yesterday's 157.998 prior high, set after the ISM beat, as US midterm results come in.
Support: 157.79, 157.63
Resistance: 157.88, 157.95, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 157.63 ny low
Close above the 157.88 lower high ends the descending sequence, with the 157.95 asian high and 158.00 prior high above
US midterm headlines and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify on any fast push through 158.00
Asian range 157.79–157.95 with lower highs pressing the floor.
USDJPY is capped below Monday's 157.998 prior high, with MoF intervention warnings limiting moves near 158.00 even after the ISM-driven bounce off the 157.631 ISM low. Asia ran 157.79–157.95, and lower highs from the 157.952 Asian high have pressed price onto the 157.79 Asian low and the 38.2% of the NY leg late in the session. RSI(14) is soft near 39 and ATR is about 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 157.79, 157.735, 157.631
Resistance: 157.911, 157.952, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 Asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 157.735 NY pivot, then the 157.631 ISM low
M15 close above the 157.911 lower high invalidates the lower-highs read and reopens the 157.952 Asian high and the 157.998 prior high
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, plus overnight US midterm results, could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside Asian range, pressing range low.
Late Asia session has carved a lower-high sequence off the 157.966 Asian high, and price is now pressing the 157.788 Asian low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 36. Supply has capped the pair below the 157.998 prior high and the 158.00 handle. The Katayama warnings and a soft, oil-driven dollar have kept the pair boxed.
Support: 157.788, 157.735, 157.602
Resistance: 157.911, 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.788 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 157.735 swing low, then the 157.602 prior low
Close above the 157.911 lower high and trendline negates the drift-lower read and reopens the 157.966 asian high
Retest of the 157.998 prior high and 158.00 brings MoF intervention rhetoric back into play
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, plus midterm results overnight, could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower inside Asian range · RSI 36 · price 157.822
Lower highs since 01:30 UTC, pressing Asian range floor.
Late Asia session is grinding toward the 157.79 asian low after a run of lower highs from 157.95, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 4 pips. The pair remains capped under the 158.00 psych level it tested Monday after the ISM beat, and Katayama's intervention warnings are keeping the ranges compressed.
Support: 157.788, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.911, 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.79 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 157.63 ny low and the 157.60 london low
Recovery above the 157.91 lower high ends the descending-highs sequence; the 157.97 asian high and the 158.00 psych cap sit above
London open could set the next session range from the bottom of the Asian box
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.79–157.95 under 158.00 cap, lower highs since the Asian high.
USD/JPY is boxed in a 157.79–157.95 Asian range after Monday's ISM-led rebound from the 157.60 prior low stalled just shy of the 158.00 cap, with Katayama's warnings keeping a lid on. Lower highs since the 01:30 UTC Asian high have price drifting toward the 157.82 swing low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) soft near 38 and ATR(14) under 4 pips.
Support: 157.823, 157.788, 157.602
Resistance: 157.911, 157.952, 157.998
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.91 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 157.95 Asian high
Acceptance above the Asian high puts the 158.00 cap back in play, where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped the pair
Failure to hold the 157.82 swing low and the 157.79 Asian low opens the path to the 157.60 prior low
US midterm results and any escalation in MoF/Katayama language could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.79–157.97 with lower highs since 01:30 UTC.
Late Asia session is holding a tight 157.79–157.97 range, with lower highs since 01:30 UTC pressing price toward the 157.823 session low, below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 41. Yesterday's NY dip to the 157.631 NY low was bought after the ISM Manufacturing beat. The 158.00 round number, yesterday's 157.998 high, has capped the topside amid MoF intervention warnings.
Support: 157.823, 157.788, 157.631
Resistance: 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
London open break of the Asian range: a close below the 157.788 asian low exposes the 157.631 NY low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 157.966 asian high reopens the 158.00 round number
US midterm results and JOLTS later in NY hours could materially shift this read
MoF rhetoric escalation near 158.00 would reinforce the cap
Tight Asian range 157.79–157.97, highs stepping lower since 01:15 UTC.
Asia session is boxed in a 157.79–157.97 band (asian low to asian high), with lower highs since 01:15 UTC and the 04:00 swing low at 157.82 absorbed. Yesterday's ISM beat lifted the pair off the 157.63 NY low, but MoF intervention warnings keep the 157.998 prior high at 158.00 capped. RSI 47, EMAs flat.
Support: 157.823, 157.788, 157.631
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.966 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 157.998 prior high / 158.00 back in play
Failure to hold the 157.823 swing low and 157.788 asian low opens the 157.63 NY low
Any escalation in MoF language near 158.00 could trigger an abrupt reversal
JOLTS 15:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Sideways, compressed just under 158.00 · RSI 48 · price 157.895
Tight Asian range 157.79–157.95 with a higher low at 157.823.
Asia session is contained between the 157.788 asian low and 157.952 asian high, still below Monday's 157.998 london high as Katayama's warnings on disorderly moves keep the pair pinned under 158.00. The 04:00 UTC swing low at 157.823 held above the asian low, but RSI(14) sits flat near 48 and ATR is under 4 pips, so no directional setup is in play.
Support: 157.823, 157.788, 157.631
Resistance: 157.952, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 london high puts 158.00 in play, where intervention rhetoric has capped price
Close below the 157.788 asian low breaks the Asian rising lows and exposes Monday's ny low at 157.631
US midterm results overnight could break the compression with a volatility spike
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
Tight Asian range 157.79–157.95 under Monday's 157.998 high, higher swing low.
Late Asia session sits inside a 16-pip range between the 157.788 asian low and the 157.952 asian high. Monday's push stalled at 157.998, just under psych 158, where Katayama's intervention warnings have capped repeated tests. The 04:00 UTC swing low at 157.823 is a higher low than the Asian low, with price pinned at EMA20. ATR(14) near 3.8 pips shows compressed conditions ahead of London.
Support: 157.823, 157.788, 157.631
Resistance: 157.952, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.952 asian high exposes psych 158 and Monday's 157.998 rejection high
Close below the 157.823 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low line and opens the 157.788 asian low
Loss of 157.788 puts Monday's 157.631 ny low back in focus
US midterm headlines and JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF language near 158.00 raises two-way spike risk
Tight Asian range 157.79–157.97 beneath prior-day high.
Mid-Asia session, USDJPY is pinned inside a 157.79–157.97 range after yesterday's dip to the 157.63 NY low around the ISM beat was bought back. Price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 47. The 157.82 swing low held again into the session, but the 157.97 Asian high and 158.00 prior high continue to cap as Katayama's intervention warnings keep upside contained.
Support: 157.82, 157.79, 157.63
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 prior high breaks the range and puts intervention rhetoric back in focus
Failure to hold the 157.82 swing low and 157.79 Asian low exposes the 157.63 NY low
US midterm results through Asia/London could materially shift this read
Rejection again at the 157.97 Asian high keeps the range read intact
Tight Asian range under 158.00, lower highs since Tokyo open.
Late Asia session, and USDJPY is still boxed in the 157.788–157.966 Asian range, below the 158.00 round number that capped Monday's London push at 157.998 as Katayama's intervention warnings kept the pair consolidating. Tokyo has printed lower highs and price is pressing the 157.82 asia lows, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) about 4 pips, so the range is quiet and contracting.
Support: 157.82, 157.788, 157.602
Resistance: 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.788 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 157.602 london low
Break of the lower highs trendline and the 157.966 asian high reopens the 158.00 round number, where intervention rhetoric is likely
US midterm results through Asia/London and JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.79–157.97 with lower highs since 01:45 UTC.
Late Asia is holding inside a 157.79–157.97 range. Highs have stepped lower from 157.95, and price sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian leg near 157.87, slightly below EMA20/50. The 158.00 area, the prior high from London at 157.998, still caps the pair as Katayama's intervention warnings keep it pinned. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and ATR(14) is about 4.6 pips.
Support: 157.823, 157.788, 157.631
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.823 swing low and the 157.788 asian low turns the range into a lower-low sequence toward the 157.631 ny low
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 157.966 asian high reopens the 157.998 prior high / 158.00
US midterm results from ~05:00 UTC could materially shift this read; any spike toward 158.00 runs into MoF intervention rhetoric
04:01 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower in late Asia · RSI 42 · price 157.864
Range 157.60–158.00; Asia lower highs inside 157.79–157.97.
Late Asia session: price is sliding toward the lower half of the 157.79–157.97 Asian range, with lower highs off the 157.97 asia high and RSI(14) near 42. The wider 24h range holds between the 157.60 24h low and the 158.00 cap. Yesterday's push stalled at that cap as Katayama's intervention warnings limited yen losses.
Support: 157.79, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.79 asia low exposes the 157.63 ny low and the 157.60 24h low
M15 close above the Asia lower-highs line and the 157.97 asia high reopens a test of the 158.00 cap
US midterm results flowing from ~05:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric near the 158.00 cap is a headline risk for sharp two-way spikes
03:46 UTC
Sideways, capped under 158.00 · RSI 49 · price 157.874
Asian range 157.79–157.95 inside Monday's 157.60–158.00 box, lower highs.
Late Asia session, price pinned mid-range between the 157.79 asian low and the 157.95 asian high. That range sits inside Monday's 157.60–158.00 box, where the London spike to 157.998 and later highs at 157.97 and 157.95 form a run of lower highs under the 158.00 cap. Katayama's intervention warnings sit at that cap; the last bar slipped below EMA20 and RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 157.79, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.95, 158.00
What it said to watch
US midterm results from ~05:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.00 cap breaks the lower highs sequence; intervention headlines risk sharp two-way spikes there
Break of the 157.79 asian low exposes the 157.63 ny low and 157.60 prior low
Tight Asian range above a higher low, capped under prior high.
Mid-Asia session, USDJPY is pinned in a 16-pip Asian range from the 157.788 asian low to the 157.952 asian high. That sits just under Monday's 157.998 prior high, where Katayama's intervention warnings are keeping a lid on gains. The higher low from the 157.631 ny low to the asian low keeps the rising support line intact, with ATR(14) compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 157.788, 157.631
Resistance: 157.952, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 prior high and 158.00 puts price into the intervention-sensitive zone flagged by MoF
Failure to hold the 157.788 asian low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 157.631 ny low
US midterm voting from 05:00 UTC and Qeshm strike headlines via oil could break the compression
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC is the first US data risk for the NY session
Tight Asian range 157.79–157.95 with higher lows, capped under round number.
Asia session is holding a 157.79–157.95 range, with the asian high and the 158.00 round number rejecting every test since Monday's London peak at 157.998. Katayama's intervention warnings are keeping that cap in place. Buyers have printed a higher low at 157.84 and again at 157.87 since the 00:15 UTC dip, and Monday's low at 157.60 remains the floor of the wider day range.
Support: 157.872, 157.788, 157.602
Resistance: 157.952, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the repeated-rejection read; MoF intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify there
Failure to hold the 157.87 higher low returns price to the 157.79 asian low
A break of the 157.79 asian low exposes the 157.60 monday low
US midterm results from 05:00 UTC and Qeshm strike headlines via oil could materially shift this read
Higher lows 157.63 → 157.79 under a flat 157.95–158.00 cap.
Mid-Asia, USDJPY is holding a 157.79–157.95 Asian range under Monday's 157.998 high. That high sits right at 158.00, where Katayama's intervention warnings are capping. The ISM beat lifted price off the 157.63 NY low after the 157.60 London low, setting a rising trendline of higher lows; RSI(14) is flat at 49 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 157.788, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.952, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 Asian low breaks the rising trendline and the 50% fib, exposing the 157.63 NY low and 157.60 London low
Acceptance above the 157.95 Asian high retests the Monday high at 158.00, the level where MoF intervention language has capped
US midterms (Tue 05:00 UTC) and JOLTS (15:00 UTC) could break the range via the USD leg
Qeshm strike headlines moving oil could jolt USD and change this read
02:46 UTC
Sideways, higher lows under a flat cap · RSI 52 · price 157.916
Compression below 157.95–158.00, higher lows since NY base.
The Asian session is compressing beneath the 157.952 asian high and the 158.00 round number, which has capped every test in 24h. Higher lows at 157.788 and 157.872 sit on a rising trendline from the 157.63 NY-session base set before the ISM beat lifted the pair. RSI(14) at 52 and ATR near 5 pips reflect a tight range.
Support: 157.872, 157.788, 157.602
Resistance: 157.952, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number breaks the 24h cap, though Katayama intervention rhetoric sits around that area
Close below the 157.872 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 157.788 asian low, near the fib 50% of the 157.60–158.00 leg
Loss of 157.788 reopens the 157.602 london low
US midterm voting starts 05:00 UTC; early headlines could shift USD tone mid-Asia
Compression: rising lows into a flat 157.97–158.00 cap.
Mid-Asia session, USDJPY is compressing beneath 158.00. The 157.998 prior high and the 157.966 Asian high have capped every test, while lows stepped up from the 157.631 NY low to the 157.788 Asian low and the 157.872 swing low. The yen is lagging broad USD softness, and RSI(14) is flat near 49 with ATR(14) under 6 pips.
Support: 157.872, 157.788, 157.631
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.998 prior high breaks the range top; intervention rhetoric risk rises around 158.00
Loss of the 157.872 swing low and the rising trendline (~157.83) puts the 157.788 asian low back in play
Break below the 157.788 asian low reopens the 157.631 ny low
US midterm headlines and Qeshm/oil news could materially shift this read during the session
Mid-Asia session, price is holding a 157.79–157.97 band (asia low to asia high) just under yesterday's 158.00 high. Rising lows from the 157.60 prior low and the 157.63 NY low have compressed price into the top of the 24h range as the yen stays soft despite a weaker USD. RSI(14) is neutral at 53 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 157.788, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.00 round number breaks yesterday's high and the range cap; intervention rhetoric near that level can trigger sharp reversals
A move through the 157.97 asia high retests the 158.00 cap
Loss of the 157.79 asia low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes the 157.63 ny low and the 157.60 prior low
US midterm polls from ~05:00 UTC and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Sideways, upper half of 24h range · RSI 51 · price 157.892
157.60–158.00 range, higher lows into a flat cap below 158.00.
Early Asia session is chopping mid-range between the 157.79 asian low and the 157.97 asian high. That sits inside Monday's 157.60–158.00 band, where the psych 158 area (157.998 in London) has drawn repeated rejection. The yen ignored broad USD softness; the ISM beat at 15:00 UTC lifted the pair off the 157.63 ny low. Lows have stepped higher since, and RSI(14) is flat near 51.
Support: 157.788, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the psych 158 high breaks the 24h range top, with intervention rhetoric risk building above it
Loss of the 157.79 asian low and the higher-low line (~157.82) undoes the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 157.63 ny low, then the 157.60 london low
US midterm voting today and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Sideways, capped just under 158.00 · RSI 53 · price 157.905
Range 157.60–158.00, rising lows inside a tight Asian range.
Early Asia session is holding a 157.788–157.966 range inside Monday's 157.60–158.00 band. The London low at 157.602 and NY low at 157.631 formed the floor, and dips since have printed rising lows, while session highs at 157.95–157.97 keep capping below the 157.998 Monday high. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and price sits on EMA20; the yen's failure to gain on broad USD softness keeps the pair pinned near 158.00.
Support: 157.788, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 Monday high and 158.00 breaks the range top; intervention rhetoric from Katayama could hit any push higher
Failure to hold the 157.788 asia low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 157.631 ny low
Midterm election headlines from ~05:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Sideways, higher lows pressing range high · RSI 58 · price 157.946
40-pip range 157.60–158.00, rising lows under a flat cap.
Pair is back at the 157.95–158.00 round number in early Asia session, a ceiling that has produced rejection five times in 24h. Rising lows since the 157.63 NY low, which held as the ISM beat lifted USD, and demand defended the 157.79 asia low after the rollover gap.
Support: 157.788, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 158.00, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.00 breaks the repeated cap and opens the 158.60 range top
Loss of the 157.79 asia low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 157.63 ny low and 157.60 day low
US midterm polls from ~05:00 UTC and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo intervention rhetoric near 158.00 could trigger sharp two-way moves
01:16 UTC
Sideways, higher lows under a flat top · RSI 49 · price 157.91
157.60–158.00 range, lows stepping up since NY.
Early Asia session is pinned under the 157.97 session high and the 157.998 day high, the fifth rejection in the 157.95–158.00 zone in 24h. Lows have risen from the 157.60 day low (London) to the 157.63 NY low and the 157.79 session low, as the yen stayed soft despite the broad USD slip on Iran headlines. RSI(14) is flat near 49.
Support: 157.79, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 day high breaks the range top and opens the path toward 158.60, where Tokyo intervention rhetoric is the cap
Loss of the 157.79 session low breaks the higher-lows trendline and brings the 157.63 ny low and 157.60 day low back into view
US midterm voting today, then JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
24h range 157.60–158.00, range top capped three times, higher lows since NY.
Early Tokyo is capped at the 157.97 session high and dipped to a 157.79 session low before bouncing; price sits mid-range below the 158.00 range top, which rejected moves three times Monday. The yen missed out on the oil-led USD slide, and the ISM beat lifted the pair off 157.63 during NY hours. Rising support from that low has held since, with lows stepping higher into this session.
Support: 157.788, 157.602
Resistance: 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 range top breaks the 24h range and brings Tokyo intervention rhetoric into play
Failure to hold the 157.79 session low and rising support exposes the 157.60 day low
US midterm polls open from ~05:00 UTC and JOLTS lands at 15:00 UTC; either could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing below day high · RSI 44 · price 157.857
Monday's 157.60–158.00 range intact; rising lows since the NY low, Asian band 157.79–157.97.
Early Tuesday Asia session holds a tight 157.79–157.97 band inside Monday's 157.60–158.00 range. Price sits on the 61.8% retrace of the NY-open drop, just under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 44. The ISM beat lifted the pair off the 157.63 NY low, and rising lows since then are compressing against the day high at 158.00.
Support: 157.79, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 day high breaks Monday's range top; above the asian high at 157.97 is the first test
Failure to hold the asian low at 157.79 breaks the rising-lows line and reopens 157.63 NY low / 157.60 london low
US midterm results through today, plus JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tokyo intervention rhetoric near 158.00 adds two-way headline risk
Monday held a 157.60–158.00 range. London swept under the Asian range to a 157.60 day low before rallying, and NY dipped to a 157.63 NY low before the ISM beat drove a bounce, while every push stalled just under the 158.00 day high. Early Tuesday Asia faded from the 157.97 asia high to a 157.79 asia low, leaving price below the ema20 near the 38.2% fib of the NY-low rally, with RSI(14) around 39.
Support: 157.788, 157.631, 157.602
Resistance: 157.89, 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.79 asia low (near the 50% fib) exposes the 157.63 NY low and the 157.60 day low
Reclaiming the ema20 near 157.89 and the 157.97 asia high puts the 158.00 day high back in play; a close above it breaks the range top
US midterm voting from ~05:00 UTC, plus JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tokyo intervention rhetoric remains a cap risk on any extension above the 158.00 day high
00:16 UTC
Sideways, upper half of day range fading · RSI 42 · price 157.845
Range 157.60–158.00, repeated caps below 158.00, higher low at 157.63.
Monday held a 157.60–158.00 range. London swept the Asian low to the 157.60 day low, and the post-ISM bid from the 157.63 NY low lifted price back into the upper half, but every push stalled at the 157.96 swing high just under the 158.00 round number. Early Asia has slipped back to 157.84, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY move, with the 157.78 NY pivot next below.
Support: 157.78, 157.63, 157.60
Resistance: 157.965, 158.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the ny pivot near 157.78 (50% of the NY move) exposes the ny low at 157.63 and the day low at 157.60
M15 close above the 157.96 swing high and the 158.00 round number breaks the day's cap; the 158.60 range top is the next reference
Louder MoF intervention language near 158.00 could reinforce the rejection at the range top
US midterm results overnight and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from ISM low, stalling under 158.00 · RSI 52 · price 157.906
Higher lows since 157.63 against flat highs at 157.95–158.00.
The US ISM manufacturing beat at 15:00 UTC lifted price off the 157.63 NY low into a rising lows sequence, but highs keep stalling at 157.95–158.00, short of the 157.998 day high set in London. Early Asia is holding just above the 157.864 gap low left at the rollover, with the late high at 157.966 capping and ATR compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 157.864, 157.775, 157.602
Resistance: 157.966, 157.998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.998 day high and 158.00 turns the flat-top consolidation into a breakout
Loss of the 157.864 gap low and the rising lows line exposes the 157.775 swing low, then the 157.60 day low
US midterm results flowing overnight could drive sharp broad USD moves through this range