20:02 UTC
Range-bound, mean-reverting below flat EMAs · RSI 50 · price 157.742
152-164 yearly range; post-July reversion into a 155-160 band.
USDJPY has been range-bound between the 152.27 year low and the 163.99 year high since Q1. After the late-July rejection from the year high, price reverted into a 155–160 band, and the 160 shelf has capped every rally since. Price at 157.74 sits just below a flattening EMA(50) near 158.40 and between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the Feb–Jul advance, with RSI near 50, so momentum gives no regime signal. The blowout NFP lifted USD, but the pair held inside its 156–159 congestion, with the oct low at 156.08 and the cluster of swing lows near 155.00 underpinning the band.
Support: 156.08, 155.00, 152.27
Resistance: 158.40, 160.40, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the 160 shelf (~160.40) would end the post-July reversion and reopen the year high at 163.99
- Close below the oct low at 156.08 exposes the swing lows near 155.00; failure there brings the year low at 152.27 back into play
- Sustained closes back above the ema50 near 158.40 would signal a return toward the first-half uptrend regime
- US CPI on Tue Nov 10 and BoJ December-hike commentary could materially shift this read