USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 6 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under the NFP high · RSI 64 · price 158.451
Higher low at 158.00, lower high at 158.54 versus the 158.58 NFP spike.
The NFP beat spiked USDJPY to a 158.58 session high, but NY faded it to a 158.00 swing low. A late-NY rally recovered the fade, reclaimed the 158.40 prior high and stalled at a 158.54 late high. Into the Friday close, price is consolidating just under the NFP high, with RSI(14) near 64 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 158.40, 158.105, 157.997
Resistance: 158.542, 158.579
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.58 NFP high and the 158.54 late high breaks the session range to the upside.
Loss of the 158.40 prior high puts the 158.10 post-nfp low and the 158.00 swing low back in focus.
A pullback holding the 50% retrace of the late-NY rally near 158.27 keeps the higher-low sequence intact.
Weekend BoJ/Ueda headlines and Monday's Fed speakers could gap price at the Asia open.
20:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 66 · price 158.465
Higher lows from the 158.00 NY low; consolidating just under the NFP high.
The NFP beat spiked USD/JPY to 158.58, and the move faded. Demand then held the 158.00 NY low, and a higher-low chain carried price through the 158.40 breakout to a 158.54 session high after London close. Price is now compressing just below the NFP high into the thin Friday close, with RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s.
Support: 158.40, 158.20, 158.00
Resistance: 158.54, 158.58, 158.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.58 NFP high opens the path to the 158.74 range top
Close back below 158.40 breakout puts the trend line and 158.20 swing low in play
Loss of the 158.00 NY low breaks the higher-low chain
Weekend BoJ/Ueda headlines and Monday's Asia open on the equity rout could gap this read
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the post-NFP high · RSI 73 · price 158.501
Higher low at 158.00 after NFP fade; late-NY grind back under spike high.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked USDJPY to the 158.58 nfp high, then it faded to the 158.00 ny low, where demand held. Late NY has since stair-stepped back to 158.50 on RSI(14) near 73, with the latest bars compressing just below the nfp high in thin pre-weekend trade.
Support: 158.37, 157.997
Resistance: 158.579, 158.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.58 nfp high exposes the 158.74 range top
Slip back under the 158.37 pre-nfp top turns the late-NY push into a failed retest
Loss of the 158.00 ny low and the rising London-NY trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Weekend gap risk into Monday's Asia open from BoJ/Ueda headlines and the equity rout
The 13:30 UTC NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked USD/JPY to 158.58. That high was rejected and the pair faded to a 158.11 swing low. A 17:30 UTC dip to the 158.00 round number was bought, and late NY has climbed back above the London high at 158.38 to 158.49, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 158.38, 158.11, 158.00
Resistance: 158.58, 158.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.58 nfp high opens the 158.74 range top
Failure to hold the 158.38 london high and rising support puts the 158.11 swing low and 158.00 round number back in play
Thin late-Friday trade; Monday Asia open carries gap risk from the tech-equity rout and BoJ headlines
The NFP beat lifted USD and spiked USDJPY to 158.58. The pair faded to a 157.997 ny low near the 38.2% fib of the 157.25–158.58 advance, then reclaimed the 158.40 prior high in late NY. It now sits just under the nfp high with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 158.40, 158.00
Resistance: 158.58, 158.74, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.58 nfp high opens the 158.74 range top and 159.00 psych
Loss of the 158.40 prior high returns focus to the 158.00 ny low and the 38.2% fib
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close. Fed speakers Monday and US CPI Tuesday are the next catalysts, and any Japan intervention rhetoric near 159.00 psych could shift the read
Higher lows since the 17:30 UTC dip below 158.10; price retesting upper end of NFP range.
The NFP beat spiked the pair to 158.58 (nfp high) before it faded to the 158.10 NY low around the Ueda speech. The 157.99 dip below that low was a false break that closed back above it. Late-NY trade has since carved higher lows along a rising trendline and retraced roughly 85% of the post-NFP drop into 158.49.
Support: 158.13, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.58, 158.74, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.58 nfp high clears the post-NFP rejection and exposes the 158.74 range top, then 159.00 psych
A break of trendline support near 158.13 with failure at the 158.10 NY low reopens the 158.00 sweep low
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity into the weekly close can exaggerate wicks; Fed speakers Monday and US CPI Tuesday are the next scheduled drivers
Higher lows since the 17:30 UTC wick, back at the post-NFP range top.
Late NY session is stepping higher off a rejection of the 158.00 round number at 17:30 UTC. Price has reclaimed the 158.40 prior high and is retesting the post-NFP cap near 158.48, with the 158.58 NFP high, set on the 165K payrolls beat, capping the day's 157.26–158.58 fib leg. RSI(14) near 64 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.40, 158.105, 158.00
Resistance: 158.482, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.58 NFP high opens the 158.74–159.00 range top
Slipping back below the 158.40 prior high returns price to the post-NFP chop and breaks the rising line of higher lows
Break of the 158.11 swing low and the 158.00 round number would mark a lower low
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Fed speakers Monday and US CPI Tuesday are the next scheduled catalysts
19:01 UTC
Post-NFP range, recovering off late lows · RSI 59 · price 158.364
Lower highs from 158.58 NFP high; higher lows since 158.00 wick.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked USDJPY to the 158.58 nfp high in the first minutes of NY, but it faded to a 158.10 post-nfp low. A late-NY wick to the 158.00 round number was rejected. Price is now late in the NY session, pressing the 158.40 lower high and the 61.8% post-nfp fib, with a higher low at 158.23 underneath.
Support: 158.23, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 158.58 nfp high
Loss of the 158.23 higher low puts the 158.10 post-nfp low and 158.00 round number back in play
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; Fed speakers Monday (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could reset the range
18:46 UTC
Post-NFP pullback, recovering late NY · RSI 58 · price 158.333
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked price to the 158.58 nfp high at 13:30 UTC, but the move faded into lower highs at 158.48 and 158.40 during NY hours. A wick through psych 158.00, near the 61.8% retrace of the London-NFP leg, was bought back above the 158.10 swing low. Price is now pressing toward the descending trendline late in the NY session.
Support: 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the post-NFP lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low reopens psych 158.00 and the 61.8% retrace
Late-Friday liquidity is thin; headlines on Ueda's December timing could shift this read
18:31 UTC
Rebound stalled, post-NFP range · RSI 51 · price 158.288
Lower highs since NFP spike, 158.00 floor holding.
The NFP beat extended the London-to-NFP leg off the 157.69 London low to a 158.58 nfp high, but that spike was rejected. Late NY session has printed lower highs inside 158.00–158.48, and a wick to 157.997 near the 61.8% of the leg was bought back above the round number. RSI(14) near 51 with price hugging EMA20.
Support: 158.11, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.40, 158.48, 158.58
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.40 lower high and 158.48 range top reopens the 158.58 nfp high and breaks the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 158.11 post-nfp low and 158.00 round number exposes the 157.69 london low
Further Ueda commentary on December BoJ timing could shift this read into the Friday close; US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
18:16 UTC
Post-NFP fade, lower highs inside NY range · RSI 46 · price 158.252
Lower highs from the NFP spike; 158.00 wick rejected, mid-range coil.
The strong NFP spike to the 158.58 nfp high faded through NY hours. It left lower highs at 158.48 and 158.40 under a descending trendline, while the late-NY dip below the 158.00 round number was rejected back above the 61.8% retrace of the London-NFP leg. Price is coiling near 158.25, between the 158.10 ny low and the 158.40 lower high, with RSI(14) at 46 as Friday liquidity thins.
Support: 158.105, 158.00
Resistance: 158.401, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 ny low re-exposes the 158.00 round number and the 61.8% retrace
M15 close above the 158.40 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 158.58 nfp high
Ueda headlines on December BoJ timing could shift the yen leg; thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekend close
18:02 UTC
Post-NFP fade, lower highs inside a tightening band · RSI 42 · price 158.21
NFP spike high rejected; lower highs at 158.48 and 158.40, late-NY range 158.10–158.40.
The NFP beat ran the pair to the 158.58 NFP high at the NY open. The spike faded into lower highs at 158.48 and 158.40 as RSI(14) eased to ~42. After London close price is holding a 158.10–158.40 band, with a 17:30 UTC wick to the 158.00 round number bought straight back; the close sits near the 38.2% fib of the 157.69–158.58 leg.
Support: 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 lower high breaks the post-NFP descending trendline
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 50% fib near 158.13
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC and thin pre-weekend liquidity could shift this read
Lower highs from 158.58 NFP spike, base forming near 158.00.
The strong US payrolls beat drove a 13:30 UTC spike to the 158.58 NFP high. The spike was rejected, and NY hours have since printed lower highs at 158.48 and 158.40 beneath a descending trendline. A 17:30 UTC wick below the 158.00 psych level was bought back to 158.20, near the 61.8% fib of the 157.69–158.58 rally, with price under EMA20/50 and RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 158.105, 158.00, 157.689
Resistance: 158.401, 158.579
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 158.00 psych confirms a lower-low below the 158.10 post-nfp low and exposes the 157.69 london low
M15 close above the 158.40 lower high breaks the post-NFP lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.58 NFP high
Thin late-Friday NY trade after London close can exaggerate wicks around 158.00
NFP false break above London range top; lower high at 158.40, price back at range base.
The NFP beat spiked USDJPY to the 158.58 NFP high, but the move failed above the London range top near 158.37 and faded to the 158.10 post-NFP low. A lower high at 158.40 followed the Ueda window, and price now sits on the 158.21 range base after London close, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 158.21, 158.105
Resistance: 158.401, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 post-NFP low breaks the bounce structure and exposes the 61.8% of the London-NFP leg near 158.09
Close back above the 158.40 lower high reopens the 158.58 NFP high
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read
Lower highs off 158.58 NFP high, 158.10 post-NFP low holding.
The London rally from the 157.69 London low ran to a 158.58 NFP high on the payroll beat, then faded. NY hours have printed lower highs at 158.48 and 158.40, with the 158.10 post-NFP low holding near the 50% retracement of the London-NFP leg. Price sits at 158.22, under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 158.10, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.40, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 post-NFP low breaks the lower-highs base and opens the 158.00 round number
Below 158.00, the London low at 157.69 is the next reference
M15 close above the 158.40 lower high breaks the sequence and puts the 158.58 NFP high back in play
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC), plus Ueda's December-timing comments, could materially shift this read
158.10–158.48 post-NFP range, lower highs at 158.48 and 158.40.
The NFP beat spiked USD/JPY to the 158.58 nfp high. The spike faded into a 158.10–158.48 post-NFP range, with a lower high at 158.48 and a rejection at the 158.40 Ueda high around London close. Price has slipped below EMA20 and is sitting near EMA50, drifting toward the 158.10 post-NFP low, which lines up with the 50% retrace of the London-to-NFP leg; RSI(14) is near 38.
Support: 158.105, 158.00
Resistance: 158.401, 158.482, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 post-NFP low breaks the range floor and exposes the 158.00 round number, near the 61.8% retrace of the London-to-NFP leg
Reclaim of the 158.40 Ueda high and the lower highs line reopens the 158.48 lower high and the 158.58 nfp high
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read in thin post-London trade
Higher lows from 157.25 Asian low; NY pullback from 158.58 held above 158.10, now rebuilding.
London broke the Asian range high at 158.16. The NFP beat then spiked price to the 158.58 NFP high, where supply capped it and left a lower high at 158.48. The NY pullback found the 158.10 NY low on the rising lows trendline, near the 38.2% of the rally fib. Price is back at 158.34 off an intraday higher low at 158.20 as Ueda speaks.
Support: 158.20, 158.105
Resistance: 158.48, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 NY low breaks the rising lows trendline and the higher-low chain
Close above the 158.48 lower high reopens the 158.58 NFP high
Loss of the 158.20 higher low puts the NY low back in play
Ueda speech underway, then Fed's Bowman 17:15 and Daly 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 157.25, pausing below the NFP high · RSI 45 · price 158.239
Higher lows from the 157.69 London low; post-NFP pullback holding above 158.10.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked USD/JPY to the 158.58 NFP high at 13:30 UTC. Supply capped it there, and price faded to a 158.10 post-NFP low in NY hours. That low sits on rising support from the London low and near the 38.2% fib of the 157.25–158.58 rise. Price is now at 158.24, just under the 158.34 bounce high, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR around 12–13 pips.
Support: 158.105, 158.00
Resistance: 158.34, 158.58
What it said to watch
Ueda speech at 16:00 UTC is live; a clear December-hike signal could push price through the 158.10 post-NFP low
An M15 close below 158.10 breaks rising support and exposes the 158.00 Asia high / 38.2% fib zone
A close above the 158.34 bounce high reopens the 158.58 NFP high
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could shift the read later in NY hours
Lower highs since NFP spike, back inside pre-NFP range.
The NFP beat spiked price to the 158.58 NFP high at 13:30 UTC, but the break of the 158.21–158.38 pre-NFP range failed and was sold. NY has since printed lower highs and a 158.11 NY low near the 50% retrace of the London leg from 157.69. Price is back inside the range above the range low, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 158.21, 158.11, 158.00
Resistance: 158.38, 158.58
What it said to watch
Ueda speech at 16:00 UTC is the immediate swing risk. Explicit December-hike language would put the 158.11 NY low under pressure.
A break of the 158.11 NY low exposes the 158.00 psych level and the 61.8% retrace at 158.03.
A close back above the 158.38 range high breaks the post-NFP lower highs and reopens the 158.58 NFP high.
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could shift the USD side of the read late in NY hours.
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back after NFP spike · RSI 37 · price 158.118
Lower highs since the NFP high; London range low at 158.21 broken.
The 165K NFP beat spiked USDJPY to the 158.58 NFP high, but the move was rejected and NY printed a lower high at 158.48 before slipping through the 158.21 London range low. RSI(14) is near 37 as price leans on the 158.00 Asian high, with the 50% fib of the 157.25–158.58 leg at 157.92 below.
Support: 158.00, 157.92, 157.69
Resistance: 158.21, 158.48, 158.58
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda at 16:00 UTC is the main swing factor for this read
M15 close back above 158.21 range low would neutralise the post-NFP breakdown
Failure to hold the 158.00 Asian high exposes the 157.92 fib 50 and the 157.69 London low
A break of the 157.69 London low would breach the rising lows line from the 157.25 Asia low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could shift the USD side later in NY
NFP spike rejected; lower high at 158.48, probing below London range floor.
The 165K NFP beat spiked USDJPY to a 158.58 NFP high, but the break above the 158.21–158.38 London range failed. Price set a lower high at 158.48 and is now testing the 38.2% fib of the 157.69 london low to NFP high leg near 158.24, with the post-NFP low at 158.18 the immediate floor.
Support: 158.18, 158.03, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.48, 158.58
What it said to watch
BoJ Governor Ueda at 16:00 UTC is the swing factor for this read. An explicit December hike signal raises pressure on the 158.18 post-NFP low.
An M15 close below 158.18 opens the 50% fib at 158.13 and the 61.8% fib at 158.03. The london low at 157.69 sits beneath.
Reclaiming the 158.38 london high and the 158.48 lower high would invalidate the fade read. The 158.58 NFP high caps above.
Fed's Bowman speaks at 17:15 UTC and Daly at 18:00 UTC, which could re-ignite the post-payrolls USD bid.
Higher lows from Asia low; post-NFP rejection back into 158.21–158.38 range.
The 165K NFP beat spiked the pair to a 158.58 session high in the first hour of NY, but the high was rejected and price is back at 158.31, inside the 158.21–158.38 London range. The post-NFP dip held 158.26, the 23.6% fib of the Asia low-to-NFP high leg. The higher-low chain from the 157.25 Asia low is intact, and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 158.21, 157.96
Resistance: 158.38, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.38 range top reopens the 158.58 NFP high
Loss of the 158.21 range low exposes the 157.96 London breakout level, with rising support from the Asia low near 158.08
UoM sentiment (15:00 UTC) and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-NFP breakout above London range, retest holding.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) broke USDJPY out of the 158.21–158.38 London range to a 158.58 nfp high. In the first hour of NY, dips held the 158.26 nfp low and the old range top, keeping the higher-low chain from the 157.25 Asia low intact along the rising trendline. RSI(14) is near 66, not stretched.
Support: 158.38, 158.26, 158.21
Resistance: 158.58, 159.00
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 158.26 nfp low and 158.21 range low negates the breakout and exposes the 38.2% rebound fib near 158.07
A close above the 158.58 nfp high opens the path to the 159.00 round number
A break of the rising trendline from the 157.69 low would end the higher-low sequence
Rising lows from the 157.25 Asia low carried price through the 158.16 Asia high in London. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) then broke the 158.21–158.37 pre-data range to a 158.58 nfp high, and the pullback held 158.26 (post-nfp low). Price is back at 158.46 in early NY session, RSI(14) at 66 and not stretched.
Support: 158.26, 158.21, 158.16
Resistance: 158.58, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.58 nfp high opens the path toward the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the 158.26 post-nfp low and 158.21 range low puts the 158.16 asia high and the fib 50% near 158.13 in play
Break of the rising lows trendline near 158.06 would end the HH/HL chain
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
HL chain from 157.25 low; post-NFP holding above pre-data range.
The rally from the 157.25 weekly low extended through London, and the NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked price out of the 158.21–158.37 range to the 158.58 nfp high. The spike met rejection and faded. The pullback bottomed at the 158.26 nfp low, above the range low and on rising support from the London dip, with RSI(14) near 63 and no extreme.
Support: 158.263, 158.211
Resistance: 158.579, 158.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.26 nfp low and rising support puts the 158.21 range low back in play and undoes the breakout
Close above the 158.58 nfp high opens the 158.74 range top
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) in the NY session are added event risk
HH/HL chain from 157.25 Asia low; London range 158.21–158.37 broken higher in NY.
The 13:30 GMT NFP bar broke the 158.21–158.37 London range and spiked to the nfp high at 158.58 before fading to 158.44, just under yesterday's prior high at 158.49. The HL chain from the 157.25 Asia low and the 157.69 london low is intact, and early NY trade is holding above the range top with RSI(14) near 66, not stretched.
Support: 158.37, 158.21, 157.69
Resistance: 158.49, 158.58, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the range top at 158.37 turns the NFP break into a false break
Failure to hold the range low at 158.21 breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
Close above the nfp high at 158.58 opens the 159.00 round number, where intervention-risk headlines cluster
A move under the london low at 157.69 negates the London fib leg entirely
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (15:00 GMT) and Ueda (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.25 Asia low, London range 158.21–158.38 broken on release bar.
Haven USD demand lifted the pair off the 157.25 Asia low into a higher low at 157.69 in early London. It then held a tight 158.21–158.38 London range into NFP. The still-forming 13:30 release bar spiked through the london high to a 158.57 spike high and is now testing yesterday's prior high at 158.50, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 158.38, 158.21
Resistance: 158.50, 158.57, 158.74
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london high at 158.38 marks the NFP spike as a false break
Acceptance above the prior high at 158.50 keeps the spike high at 158.57 and the 158.74 range top in play
Loss of the range low at 158.21 breaks the higher-low line from the Asia low
UoM sentiment at 15:00 UTC and Ueda speech at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Recovery from weekly low, now coiling · RSI 53 · price 158.309
Tight 158.21–158.38 range after London breakout of the Asian range.
Haven USD demand lifted USD/JPY off the 157.25 weekly low, and London broke above the Asian high at 158.16 to a 158.38 session high before the London low at 157.69 was left behind. Since 10:00 GMT price has compressed in a 17-pip band between the range low at 158.21 and the session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) about 7 pips into NFP, while Thursday's prior high at 158.50 sits overhead.
Support: 158.21, 158.16, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) will likely break the 158.21–158.38 band and reset this read
M15 close above the 158.38 session high opens Thursday's prior high at 158.50
Close below the 158.21 range low puts the 158.16 Asian high retest in play; losing it breaks the London rally trendline
Failure back toward the 157.69 London low would retrace the 61.8% of the weekly low rebound
BoJ Governor Ueda at 16:00 UTC is a second event risk for JPY
London broke the Asian high; tight 158.21–158.38 box since mid-morning.
USD/JPY has rebounded from the 157.25 weekly low set late Thursday. After an early London dip to the 157.69 london low, it broke the 158.16 asian high and is now compressing between the 158.21 range floor and the 158.38 session high ahead of NFP. RSI(14) is neutral near 58 and ATR has shrunk to about 7 pips as the dollar's haven bid pauses.
Support: 158.21, 158.16, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could break the 18-pip box either way
M15 close above the 158.38 session high opens the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 158.21 range floor exposes the 158.16 asian high and the 38.2% fib near 158.11
Ueda speech at 16:00 UTC is a second volatility risk for the session
Higher lows from 157.25 Asian low; London break of Asian high, now a tight 158.21–158.38 band.
London broke the asian high at 158.16 from the 157.69 london low and printed a 158.38 session high, recovering most of Thursday's slide to 157.25 on safe-haven USD demand and strong-NFP positioning. Price has since compressed in a 158.21–158.38 band above both EMAs, with the range floor holding and RSI(14) near 61; the 158.50 prior high, where Thursday's breakdown started, sits overhead.
Support: 158.21, 158.16, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~1h) is the likely catalyst to resolve the 158.21–158.38 compression; Ueda at 16:00 UTC is a second high-impact risk
M15 close above the 158.38 session high opens a test of the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 158.21 range floor and the 158.16 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 157.69 london low and the higher lows trendline next
A hold above the 38.2% of the london leg fib (~158.11) keeps the London advance intact
HH/HL from Asia low, now compressing below session high.
USD/JPY rebounded from the 157.25 Asia-session low on safe-haven USD demand. London cleared the Asian high at 158.16 and printed a 158.38 session high. Since 10:00 UTC price has compressed in a 158.21–158.38 box into NFP, with the pullback low holding the 23.6% fib of the London leg and RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 158.21, 158.16, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~75 min, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 158.38 session high opens the 158.50 prior high, last traded before yesterday's NY drop
A break of the 158.21 pullback low and the 158.16 asian high exposes the 50% fib near 158.03, then the 157.69 london low
Ueda at 16:00 UTC is a second event risk for the yen side
Higher highs and higher lows from the 157.69 London low; tight 158.21–158.38 band.
London opened with a sweep under the Asian lows to the 157.69 london low, then broke through the 158.16 asia high and printed a 158.38 session high as safe-haven USD demand from the tech rout lifted the pair off the 157.25 weekly low. Price is now holding in a narrow band above the 158.21 swing low and above both EMAs. RSI(14) is near 66 and the band is shallow, holding above the 23.6% fib of the London leg.
Support: 158.21, 158.16, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT could break the 158.21–158.38 band in either direction; ATR near 9.5 pips will likely expand
A close above the 158.38 session high opens the 158.50 prior high, Thursday's pre-selloff top
Failure to hold the 158.21 swing low puts the 158.16 asia high and the 38.2% fib near 158.11 in play
A move back below 157.69 london low would unwind the London breakout
BoJ Governor Ueda at 16:00 UTC could shift the read after NFP
Higher highs and higher lows off the 157.69 London low; tight consolidation under the 158.38 session high.
USD/JPY recovered from the late-NY flush to the 157.25 weekly low. London broke above the asian high at 158.16 and ran to a 158.38 session high as safe-haven USD demand from the AI-stock rout held. Price has since compressed in a 158.21–158.32 band just above EMA20, a shallow pause in the London leg with the pullback low intact.
Support: 158.21, 158.16, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K, prev 29K) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 157.69 london low back in focus
Close below the 158.21 pullback low exposes the asian high at 158.16 and the 38.2% retrace of the London leg near 158.11
Close above the 158.38 session high brings the 158.50 prior high into play
Ueda speaks at 16:00 UTC; a December hike signal could cap the rebound
Higher lows from 157.25; London broke the Asian high, now in a tight 158.21–158.38 box.
USD/JPY has recovered from the 157.25 Asia low, hit on the hot Japan wage print, on safe-haven USD demand. London cleared the asian high at 158.16 and tagged a session high of 158.38, but price has since compressed into a 17-pip box above 158.21 with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-70s. The rising trendline off the 157.25 and london low swings remains intact.
Support: 158.21, 158.16, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~2h) can break the 158.21–158.38 box in either direction; ATR near 10 pips understates the likely event range
M15 close above the 158.38 session high exposes the 158.50 prior high from before yesterday's NY drop
Loss of the 158.21 box low returns price into the old asian high zone at 158.16 and the 38.2% fib near 158.11
A break of the 157.69 london low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Ueda speaks at 16:00 UTC, a second scheduled event risk for the yen leg
11:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 60 · price 158.223
Higher lows off the 157.25 Asia low; shallow lower highs below the session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.16 and ran to a 158.38 session high on safe-haven USD demand. That extended the higher lows from the 157.25 Asia low and the 157.69 London-open dip. Late London is easing back on small lower highs toward the 23.6% retracement of that London leg, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60 ahead of NFP.
Support: 158.16, 158.03, 157.95
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.16 Asian high returns price inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 158.03, then the 61.8% fib at 157.95, breaks the higher lows
Close above the 158.38 session high opens the prior-day high at 158.50
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read
Ueda speaks at 16:00 UTC, adding a second volatility window
Higher lows from 157.25; London broke the Asian high, now pulling back under the session high.
Haven USD demand from the equity sell-off lifted the pair off the 157.25 weekly low. After a dip to the 157.69 london low, it broke the 158.16 asian high to a 158.38 session high. Price is now drifting just under that high with RSI(14) easing from mid-70s, and the leg's fib retracement sits below at 158.11–157.95.
Support: 158.16, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.16 asian high on a pullback turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 158.38 session high opens the 158.50 prior high
Break below the 157.69 london low snaps the rising lows sequence
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~2.5h) and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London low, trading above Asian range high.
After the Asia drop to the 157.25 weekly low, London dipped to 157.69 and then broke the Asian high at 158.16, printing a session high at 158.38 as the AI equity sell-off kept a safe-haven bid under USD. Price is consolidating a few pips below that high with RSI(14) cooling to ~64, while the rising support from the London higher lows runs near the Asian high.
Support: 158.16, 158.03, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
A retest of the 158.16 asian high that holds keeps the London breakout intact; a close back inside the Asian range weakens it
M15 close above the 158.38 session high opens the 158.50 prior high from before yesterday's NY drop
A slip through the fib 50% at 158.03 and then the 157.69 london low negates the higher-low sequence
US NFP at 13:30 GMT and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 157.25 Asian low; London broke Asian range high.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.16 and stretched to a 158.38 session high as the yen bid from the 4.6% wage print faded, with RSI(14) cooling to about 61. Rising support from the 157.25 Asian low through the 157.69 London low is intact, and Thursday's 158.50 prior high sits above.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.16 Asian high puts the 158.00 round number and 50% fib in play
Break below the 157.69 London low ends the higher-low sequence and the rising support read
Close above the 158.38 session high exposes the 158.50 prior high
US NFP at 13:30 GMT and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.25; London broke above Asian high.
The London leg cleared the Asian high at 158.16 and has extended to a 158.38 session high. That nearly retraces yesterday's NY risk-off slide from the 158.50 prior high to the 157.25 low, which followed the hot Japan wage print. Price is pressing the 158.30 area with RSI(14) near 67, and rising lows from 157.25 through the 157.69 swing low remain intact.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.38 session high opens the 158.50 prior high
Failure to hold the Asian high at 158.16 would turn the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.00 round number, near 50% of the London leg, and the rising lows line exposes the 157.69 swing low
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into London · RSI 66 · price 158.351
Higher low at 157.69, breakout above the Asian high.
USD/JPY has recovered from the 157.25 weekly low set in Asia after the hot Japan wage print. London held a higher low at the 157.69 london low, broke the Asian high at 158.16 and reclaimed the 158.00 round number, reaching 158.35 into mid-London. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched, and price is pressing the 158.30 resistance flagged in the digest ahead of NFP.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.50, 158.74
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.16 asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
Loss of the 158.00 round number puts the 157.69 london low and rising support back in focus
Prior high at 158.50 from yesterday's pre-sell-off congestion is the next test; above it, the 158.74 range ceil cited in the digest
US NFP at 13:30 GMT and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open dipped to a london low at 157.69, then reversed through the Asian high at 158.16 and printed a session high at 158.335 as USD steadied into NFP. The sequence off the 157.25 weekly low is higher highs and higher lows along rising support. Price sits in the 158.10–158.30 resistance band, with RSI(14) at 64 and not stretched.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.16 asian high reopens the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Loss of the 158.00 round number (≈50% of the London leg fib) puts the london low at 157.69 and rising support back in focus
A clean push through the 158.335 session high exposes Thursday's prior high at 158.50
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Uptrend, recovering Thursday's NY drop · RSI 67 · price 158.292
Higher lows off 157.25, back above the Asian high mid-London.
Mid-London, price has retraced over 80% of Thursday's NY sell-off from the 158.50 Thu high, with higher lows building off the 157.25 weekly low as the haven yen bid faded. The London open rejected the 158.16 Asian high and dropped to the 157.69 London low before breaking back above it. Price is now pressing today's high near 158.30, RSI(14) ~67 and ATR ~15 pips.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.16 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 157.69 London low breaks the higher-low trendline; the 158.00 round number is the first test on any pullback
Close above the 158.50 Thu high completes the Thu drop fib retracement
Fed Williams (09:30 GMT), NFP (13:30 GMT) and Ueda (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows from Asian trough · RSI 64 · price 158.165
London broke above the Asian high; price is testing Thursday's range floor.
London dipped to a 157.69 london low, then broke above the 158.16 asian high to a 158.20 session high. That retraces roughly 73% of Thursday's NY sell-off, which ran from the 158.50 prior high to the 157.25 Asian trough. Price is now pressing the 158.30 range floor of Thursday's pre-drop range, with RSI(14) near 64, as haven USD demand into NFP meets a yen firmed by hawkish BoJ minutes and the 4.6% wage print.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.20, 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.16 asian high marks the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 158.30 range floor opens the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 158.00 round number puts the 157.69 london low and the rising lows trendline back in focus
Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT and US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
BoJ Governor Ueda at 16:00 UTC is a second event risk for yen direction
09:01 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pressing the session high · RSI 61 · price 158.159
Higher lows off 157.25, retesting the 158.16 London high.
The Thursday NY-open slide on haven yen demand ran to a 157.25 weekly low around the Japan wage beat. Price has since recovered along a line of rising lows, with a 157.69 london low set early in the session, and is back testing the 158.16–158.17 session high. RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched, and the 158.30 prior pivot sits just overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.17, 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.17 session high exposes the 158.30 prior pivot, then the 158.50 prior high from before Thursday's drop
A second rejection at 158.17 that loses the 158.00 round number puts price back inside the Asian range
A break of the 157.69 london low and the rising lows line ends the higher-low chain
Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT, NFP at 13:30 GMT and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Recovering from the weekly low, mid-range · RSI 55 · price 157.986
Higher lows off 157.25; range 157.69–158.16 since late Asia.
Late-Thursday selling hit a weekly low at 157.25 just before the 4.6% Japan wage beat. Asia then rebuilt to a 158.16 session high. The London open dip saw a rejection at 157.69, near the 50% retrace of that move. Price is back at the 158.00 psych with RSI(14) near 55, holding a rising-lows sequence inside the 157.69–158.16 range ahead of NFP.
Support: 157.69, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.16, 158.50
What it said to watch
Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT and US NFP at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.16 session high opens the prior high at 158.50
Failure to hold the 157.69 london low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 157.25 weekly low
Repeated stalls at the 158.00 psych keep the range intact
Ueda at 16:00 UTC is a second event risk for the yen leg
08:32 UTC
Sideways, lower high under 158.00 · RSI 48 · price 157.835
157.69–158.16 range; late-Asia spike to 158.16 reversed, 157.99 lower high.
The late-Asia push above the 158.00 round number to a 158.16 session high failed. The reversal into the European open reached 157.69, the eu open low, which sits at the 50% retracement of the weekly-low rally from 157.25. The rebound stalled at 157.99, and price is pinned near 157.84 below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 48, as the hawkish-BoJ yen bid offsets the haven USD demand.
Support: 157.74, 157.69, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.74 asia lows and the 157.69 eu open low confirms a lower-low and puts the 157.25 weekly low back in view
M15 close above the 158.00 round number reopens the 158.16 session high
Williams at 09:30 GMT, US NFP at 13:30 GMT and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rebounded from the 157.25 weekly low. Early London pushed through the asian high at 158.01 to a london high at 158.16, but the move failed and flushed to a london low at 157.69, near the 50% retrace of the rebound, before recovering to 157.92 with RSI(14) near 53. The yen bid from hawkish BoJ minutes and risk-off has capped upside, with price sitting mid-range just above EMA20 into NFP.
Support: 157.69, 157.25
Resistance: 158.01, 158.16, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.69 london low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 157.25 weekly low
Close above the 158.16 london high negates the false break and exposes yesterday's 158.50 prior high
Fed Williams 09:30 GMT, then US NFP 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
Ueda 16:00 UTC: explicit December hike signal is a yen-side risk to the range
Higher lows off 157.25, capped by 158.16 london high.
The early-Tokyo flush to the 157.25 weekly low on the yen-supportive wage beat was bought back into a 157.73–158.01 Asian range. Early London spiked through the asian high to 158.16, reversed to a 157.69 london low (about a 50% fib retracement of the overnight leg) and recovered to 157.92. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about 13 pips.
Support: 157.69, 157.25
Resistance: 158.01, 158.16, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.16 london high breaks the session range and puts the 158.50 prior high in view
Loss of the 157.69 london low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 157.25 weekly low
Repeated failure back below the 158.01 asian high keeps the false-break read in play
Fed's Williams at 09:30 GMT, US NFP at 13:30 GMT and BoJ Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Range after Asia rebound, momentum neutral · RSI 46 · price 157.877
Inside 157.73–158.01 Asian range after London-open false break.
The early-Asia slide to the 157.25 weekly low on yen demand (hawkish BoJ minutes, risk-off) was fully bought back into a 157.73–158.01 Asian range. Around London open price pushed above the asian high to a 158.16 session high, which was rejected, then dipped to a 157.69 london low near the 50% retrace of the rebound. Price is back mid-range at 157.88, RSI(14) neutral at 46 and EMA20 overhead at 157.90.
Support: 157.69, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 158.01, 158.16, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.16 session high negates the false break and exposes the 158.50 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.69 london low opens the 157.54 ny low and the 61.8% retrace near 157.60
Break of the 157.25 weekly low would mark a lower-low on this window
Fed's Williams at 09:30 GMT and US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; BoJ Ueda follows at 16:00 UTC
Asian range 157.74–158.01; failed pre-London break higher.
USD/JPY bounced from the 157.25 weekly low at the Tokyo open, where the dip came on BoJ-driven yen demand. A pre-London push through the 158 handle then stalled at the 158.16 session high and has unwound back into the Asian range. Price sits near the 50% retrace of yesterday's NY selloff, which stalled above the 157.54 NY low, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR(14) around 12 pips.
Support: 157.74, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 158.16, 158.50
What it said to watch
Close back above the 158 handle reopens the 158.16 session high; failure there keeps the false-break read intact
Break of the 157.74 Asian low exposes the 157.54 NY low and then the 157.25 weekly low
Reclaiming 158.16 puts the 158.50 prior high from yesterday's London session back in view
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC can each reset this range
07:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asia low · RSI 63 · price 158.056
Asian-range breakout above 158.00, first retest held.
After Thursday's NY sell-off, USD/JPY printed a 157.25 asian low after the 4.6% Japan wage beat, then built higher lows and pushed through the 158.00 asian high before London open to a 158.16 session high. The pullback retested 158.00 and held. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) about 12 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.74, 157.25
Resistance: 158.16, 158.27, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 asian high returns price to the 157.74–158.00 range; losing the range low breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 158.16 session high exposes the 158.27 breakdown point from yesterday's NY drop, with the 158.50 prior high beyond
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 157.25 asian low back in focus
Higher lows since the Asia low; Asian range high at 158.00 broken into the European open.
USD/JPY has built higher lows off the 157.25 weekly low set in Asia on yen strength tied to BoJ hike bets, and pushed through the 158.00 Asian high in the last hour. Price now sits above the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's 158.50 prior high to 157.25 slide, with the 158.16 session high capping the first test; RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 158.00, 157.74, 157.25
Resistance: 158.16, 158.50
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.00 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 158.16 session high opens the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 157.74 higher low breaks the rising lows sequence and puts the 157.25 weekly low back in view
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, US NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 67 · price 158.123
HL chain 157.25 → 157.73/157.74, now pressing above Asia high.
USD/JPY bounced off the 157.25 Asia low printed after the Japan wage beat. It then built higher lows at the 157.73–157.74 swing low and has cleared the 158.00 round number and the descending line into London open, reclaiming the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's NY selloff. RSI(14) is near 67; the 158.15 session high and the 158.50 prior high sit overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.74, 157.25
Resistance: 158.15, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 158.50 prior high clears the whole NY-session selloff
Loss of the 157.74 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Range after Asia V-recovery, lower highs under 158.00 · RSI 53 · price 157.906
157.74–158.01 range, flat floor with lower highs.
USDJPY rebounded from the 157.25 asia low, set on the 4.6% Japan wage beat and hawkish BoJ minutes, to the 158.01 asia high, then boxed into a 157.74–158.01 range for the rest of Asia. The range floor at 157.73–157.74 sits on the 38.2% retracement of that rebound and has held three times, while lower highs press from above; RSI(14) is neutral near 53 into London open.
Support: 157.74, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 158.01, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.74 range floor exposes the 157.54 ny low and the 157.25 asia low
Break of the lower highs and a close above the 158.01 asia high reopens the 158.50 prior high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, US NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Range after Asian rebound, flat to slightly heavy · RSI 47 · price 157.839
157.73–158.01 range with marginally lower highs above a flat floor.
The late-NY flush to the 157.25 weekly low, driven by yen demand on hawkish BoJ minutes and the wage beat, reversed in Asia to a 158.01 Asian high. Price has since compressed inside 157.73–158.01. The range floor sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally, held three times, while each bounce prints a lower high. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 into London open.
Support: 157.73, 157.64, 157.25
Resistance: 157.98, 158.01, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.73 range floor exposes the 157.64 swing low and the 157.25 weekly low
M15 close above the 158.01 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158.50 prior high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and BoJ's Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could each break the range
06:02 UTC
Range after Asia rebound, highs edging lower · RSI 45 · price 157.803
157.73–158.00 range with lower highs under the 158.00 Asian high.
Asia bounced from the 157.25 Asian low, set in yen demand on the wage beat and hawkish BoJ minutes. It was rejected at the 158.00 Asian high and has since compressed into a 157.73–158.00 range, with highs edging lower under a descending trendline. Into the London open price sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 45, and the range low lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the Asian rebound.
Support: 157.73, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.73 range low exposes the 157.54 NY low, then the 157.25 Asian low
Break of the lower-high trendline and the 158.00 Asian high reopens the 158.50 prior high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian rebound from 157.25 capped at 158.00; tight range 157.73–157.98.
The yen bid on the hawkish BoJ minutes and 4.6% wage beat printed the 157.25 weekly low early in Asia. The rebound then stalled with a rejection at the 158.00 asian high. Late in the Asian session price is compressing between 157.73 and 157.98, with the range low sitting at the 38.2% retrace of that rebound and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 157.73, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.00 asian high breaks the consolidation and exposes the 158.50 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.73 range low opens the 157.54 swing low, then the 157.25 weekly low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
BoJ Governor Ueda at 16:00 UTC is a second volatility event after NFP
05:31 UTC
Rebound stalled, sideways in late Asia · RSI 44 · price 157.833
Tight 157.73–158.00 consolidation after Asian rally from weekly low.
After Thursday's NY slide from the 158.50 prior high, USD/JPY printed a 157.25 weekly low amid the yen bid on hawkish BoJ minutes and the 4.6% wage beat, then rebounded through the Asia session to cap at the 158.00 Asian high. Since then it has held a 157.73–158.00 consolidation, with the range low sitting on the 38.2% of the Asian rally fib. RSI(14) is near 44 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 157.73, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.73 range low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 157.54 NY low
Acceptance above the 158.00 Asian high reopens the 158.50 prior high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A slide back toward the 157.25 weekly low would put the Asian rebound in question
Higher lows off 157.25, capped below 158.00 Asian high.
The NY session drop from the 158.50 prior high, on lower yields and the hawkish BoJ minutes, extended in early Asia. It flushed to the 157.25 weekly low around the Japan wage beat, then recovered 75 pips. Since the 02:00 UTC rejection at the 158.00 Asian high, price has compressed between 157.73 and 157.98 with RSI(14) neutral near 49. The higher low at 157.64 and the rising trendline remain intact.
Support: 157.73, 157.64, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 Asian high breaks the compression and exposes the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 157.73 swing low and the rising trendline turns focus to the 157.64 higher low and the 50% retracement near 157.63
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC are the main risks to the 157.25 weekly low
05:01 UTC
Rebounding from Asia low, now compressing · RSI 53 · price 157.883
Higher lows under 158.00 Asian high, tightening 157.73–157.98 coil.
Asia swept the 157.25 weekly low around the 4.6% Japan wage beat, then rebounded 75 pips to the 158.00 Asian high. Late in the Asian session, price is coiling at 157.73–157.98 with higher lows. The pullback held the 38.2% of the Asia rebound fib at the 157.73 swing low, and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 157.73, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.73 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 157.54 ny low
M15 close above the 158.00 asian high opens the path to yesterday's 158.50 prior high, where the NY sell-off began
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
A return below 157.54 puts the 157.25 weekly low back in play
04:46 UTC
Recovering from weekly low, stalling under 158.00 · RSI 57 · price 157.893
Higher lows from 157.25, capped at the Asian high.
Thursday's NY session slide from the 158.50 prior high ran into a sweep of the 157.25 weekly low around the Tokyo open, as the 4.6% wage beat bid the yen. Price then retraced to a 158.00 Asian high. Late in the Asia session it is consolidating between 157.73 and 158.00, with the 157.73 swing low holding at the 38.2% fib, the rising trendline intact and RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 157.73, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 Asian high opens the path toward the 158.50 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.73 swing low and rising trendline puts the 157.25 weekly low back in play
Williams at 09:30 UTC, US NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda later Friday could materially shift this read
V-shaped rebound from 157.25; testing the Asian high at 158.00.
Late in the Asia session, USD/JPY has rebounded from the 157.25 weekly low, the bottom of the slide driven by the hawkish BoJ minutes and lower yields. Price is now back at the 158.00 Asian high, which lines up with the 61.8% decline fib, after holding a higher low at 157.73 and the 157.81 range base. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR(14) about 11 pips.
Support: 157.81, 157.73, 157.25
Resistance: 158.01, 158.21, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.00 asia high and the 61.8% decline fib exposes the 158.21 breakdown level, then the 158.50 prior high
Failure at 158.00 and a slip below the 157.81 range base turns the read back to a range
Loss of the 157.73 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 157.25 weekly low
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC), NFP (13:30 UTC) and Ueda later Friday could materially shift this read
V-rebound from 157.254, now ranging 157.73–158.01.
The yen bid around the Japan wage beat spiked the pair to a 157.254 asian low, rejected at once, and Asia reversed it to a 158.007 asian high. The 03:45 UTC pullback held the 157.728 swing low near the 38.2% retrace, and price now compresses under 158.00 mid-Asia session with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 157.728, 157.64, 157.254
Resistance: 158.007, 158.273, 158.499
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.00 asian high reopens Thursday's 158.27 breakdown area, then the 158.50 day high
Loss of the 157.73 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 157.64 and the 157.25 asian low
Williams 09:30 UTC, NFP 13:30 UTC and Ueda 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rebound from 157.25 sweep capped at 158.00, now drifting lower in a tight lower-highs sequence.
The early-Asia sweep to the 157.25 weekly low, after the 4.6% Japan wages beat and hawkish BoJ minutes, reversed into an Asia rebound that met rejection at the 158.00 asian high. Late in the Asia session, price is printing lower highs near 157.89 and sitting on EMA20 around 157.80. The 157.73 dip held just above the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) is neutral at 48.
Support: 157.72, 157.63, 157.25
Resistance: 157.89, 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 157.72 exposes the 50% fib near 157.63
Close above the lower highs line at 157.89 reopens the 158.00 asian high, with the prior high at 158.50 above
Loss of 157.63 puts the 157.25 weekly low back in play
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.25, capped at 158.00; tight 157.81–157.96 box.
NY open broke USD/JPY lower from the 158.50 London high on the tech sell-off. It printed a 157.25 weekly low just before Tokyo, then rebounded to a 158.00 Asia high, where it was rejected. Mid-Asia session, price is compressing above the 157.81 pullback low with RSI(14) near 57 and both EMAs below price.
Support: 157.81, 157.64, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.27, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 Asia high opens the path to the 158.27 lower high left by the NY breakdown, then the 158.50 London high
Failure to hold the 157.81 pullback low exposes the 157.64 higher low, near the 50% fib of the Asia rebound
Loss of 157.64 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 157.25 weekly low back in play
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Asia rebound from weekly low, stalling below 158.00 · RSI 57 · price 157.868
Higher lows off 157.25, tight consolidation under Asian high.
Hawkish BoJ minutes and lower US yields drove the slide from the 158.50 london high in NY to a 157.25 weekly low near the Asia open. Asia has since rebuilt a higher-low chain to a rejection at the 158.00 asian high, now compressing above the 157.81 swing low (near the 23.6% fib) with RSI(14) neutral at 57.
Support: 157.81, 157.64, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 asian high and the descending trendline from the london high opens 158.25–158.50
Loss of the 157.81 swing low exposes the 157.64 higher low near the 50% fib
Break of the 157.25 weekly low would end the Asia rebound structure
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia bounced from the late-session flush to the 157.25 weekly low, recovering most of yesterday's NY slide from the 158.50 prior high, which came on hawkish BoJ minutes and lower yields. The rebound met rejection at the 158.00 Asian high, and the pullback has held a higher low near 157.81 above the 23.6% fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 157.81, 157.64, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.21, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 asian high reopens the 158.21 ny breakdown level, then the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 157.81 higher low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the 157.64 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Break of the 157.64 swing low puts the 157.25 weekly low back in play
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the 157.25 Asia low, capped at 158.01.
After Thursday's NY-open slide from the 158.50 prior high, early Asia swept to a 157.25 weekly low on hawkish BoJ repricing, then built higher lows into a rejection at the 158.01 asian high. Mid-Tokyo, price is holding the 157.81 pullback low near the 23.6% fib with RSI(14) at 55 and the Asian range still in development.
Support: 157.81, 157.72, 157.25
Resistance: 158.01, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 157.81 pullback low exposes the 38.2 fib at 157.72
Acceptance above the 158.01 asian high reopens the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 157.25 weekly low breaks the Asia higher-low structure
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Ueda due at 16:00 UTC
Asia HH/HL chain off 157.25, first pullback holding.
Early in the Asia session, around the Japan wage beat, price broke below the NY low but failed to hold. A higher-high/higher-low chain off the 157.25 session low then carried it back to the 158.00 session high, where it was rejected. The first pullback held at the 157.81 higher low. RSI(14) has cooled to ~56, and the prior London rally to the 158.50 prior high had unwound in NY on tech risk-off.
Support: 157.81, 157.63, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.81 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the fib 50% near 157.63
Acceptance above the 158.00 session high reopens the 158.50 prior high
Loss of 157.25 session low marks a new weekly low
Fed Williams 09:30 UTC, US NFP 13:30 UTC and the Ueda speech could materially shift this read
Asia V-rebound, higher-low chain capped at 158.00.
Early Asia swept below the NY low at 157.54 to 157.25 on the 4.6% wage beat, then reclaimed the whole move with a steady higher-low chain. The bounce was rejected at the 158.00 Asia high and price is consolidating just beneath it. RSI(14) sits near 61 and the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally lines up with the 157.69 swing low.
Support: 157.694, 157.537, 157.254
Resistance: 158.007, 158.236, 158.499
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 Asia high reopens 158.24, the NY breakdown point, with the 158.50 prior high beyond
Loss of the 157.69 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the NY low at 157.54
Fed Williams 09:30 UTC, NFP 13:30 UTC and BoJ Ueda 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Recovering within a broader intraday decline · RSI 63 · price 157.95
Asian session HH/HL chain off 157.25, testing 158.00.
The NY session sell-off from the 158.50 prior high, driven by the tech-stock slide and lower yields, extended to a 157.25 asia low after the 4.6% Japan wage beat. Asian hours have since rebuilt a higher-low chain along the asia trendline back to the 158.00 psych level, which also sits at the 61.8% retrace of that drop. RSI(14) at 63 is not stretched.
Support: 157.75, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 158.00, 158.25, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 158.00 psych / 61.8% retrace opens the ny breakdown area at 158.25, then the 158.50 prior high
A break of the asia trendline and the 157.75 swing low would put the 157.54 ny low back in play
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read; the 157.25 asia low is the session floor
Asian higher-low chain off 157.25, testing 157.95-158.00.
NY hours sold off from the 158.50 prior high on risk-off and lower yields. The yen bid carried into early Asia and broke below the 157.54 NY low to a 157.25 Asian low, with the 4.6% wage beat adding fuel. The break below the NY low has since been reclaimed. A higher-low chain along the rising trendline has lifted price to the 157.95 Asian high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop and just under the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.81, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 157.95, 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number and 61.8% fib (~158.02) extends the rebound toward the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 157.81 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the Asian recovery structure
Break back below the 157.54 NY low reopens the 157.25 Asian low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US payrolls at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Intraday rebound within a broader down-leg · RSI 56 · price 157.831
V-recovery from 157.25 with HH/HL chain, capped under 158.00.
Yen strength from the hawkish BoJ minutes and the US tech sell-off drove the NY-session slide off the 158.50 prior high. A further early-Asia flush around the 4.6% Japanese wage beat set a 157.25 swing low, and price has since built a higher-low chain back to the 50% retrace of the 158.50→157.25 drop. The 157.95 session high printed a wick rejection just under the 158.00 pivot, with price now hovering around the EMA50 and RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 157.694, 157.537, 157.254
Resistance: 157.954, 158.00, 158.499
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 pivot clears the session high and opens the 61.8% retrace near 158.02, then 158.50 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.69 higher low breaks the Asia uptrend line and puts the 157.54 ny low back in play
Loss of the 157.25 swing low resumes the down-leg
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, US payrolls at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Rebounding inside a downtrend from 158.50 · RSI 56 · price 157.789
False break below NY low, higher low at 157.64.
Early Asia session pushed through yesterday's 157.54 NY low to an Asia low at 157.25 around the 4.6% wage beat, then reversed into a false break and printed a higher low at 157.64. Price at 157.79 sits just below the 157.87 Asia high and the 158.00 round number, still well off yesterday's 158.50 London high after the NY slide on BoJ-hike and tech risk-off yen demand.
Support: 157.64, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 157.87, 158.00, 158.50
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.87 Asia high and 158.00 round number would neutralise the NY-session downtrend
Loss of the 157.64 higher low reopens the 157.54 NY low and fib 61.8% near 157.49
Re-break of the 157.25 Asia low would turn the false break into a lower low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP 13:30 UTC and Ueda 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.50; higher low at 157.64 after 157.25 flush.
Thursday's 158.50–157.25 slide (BoJ minutes, US tech risk-off) ended with a flush through the 157.54 prior low into the 4.6% Japan wage beat. That break failed, and Asia has retraced about half the move, stalling at the 157.87 session high where the 50% fib and EMA50 converge. A higher low at 157.64 keeps the rebound line intact; RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 157.64, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 157.87, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.87 session high and 158.00 psych would extend the retrace beyond the 50% fib
Break of the 157.64 higher low snaps the rebound line and reopens 157.54 prior low, then the 157.25 flush low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend from 158.50, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 56 · price 157.802
Lower highs since NY breakdown; Asia flush below NY low reversed into a V-recovery.
Early Asia session flushed below the 157.54 NY low to 157.25 (asia low) around the Japan wage beat (4.6% vs 3.8%), then fully reversed. Price is back at 157.80, pressing the 157.875 ny high, which lines up with the 50% fib of the 158.50→157.25 drop and EMA50. The asia pivot higher low at 157.64 holds the rebound, and supply has capped the NY-hours range near 157.86–157.88.
Support: 157.64, 157.54, 157.25
Resistance: 157.875, 158.00, 158.27
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.88 (ny high / 50% fib) opens the 158.00 round number and the 158.27 breakdown bar high
Failure to hold the 157.64 asia pivot puts the 157.54 ny low back in play; a break of the 157.25 asia low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 GMT could materially shift this read
The NY selloff from 158.50 extended into early Asia as JPY firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes and the 4.6% wage beat. Price spiked to the 157.254 Asia low, then reclaimed the 157.537 NY low in a false break. The rebound stalled at the 157.794 Asia high, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff, with RSI(14) flat around 49.
Support: 157.537, 157.254
Resistance: 157.794, 157.875, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.537 ny low reopens the 157.254 asia low
Close above the 157.875 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 158.00 round number next
Repeated rejection at the 157.794 asia high keeps the Asian range capped
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then Ueda and NFP later Friday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.50, sweep below 157.50 reclaimed.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.50 London high through NY on hawkish BoJ minutes and the US tech sell-off. A late flush swept the 157.50 pivot down to a 157.25 sweep low. The early Asia session rebound reclaimed 157.50 and is now pressing the 157.78 bounce high, near the 38.2% retrace of the 158.50-157.25 drop. RSI(14) sits neutral near 47.
Support: 157.50, 157.254
Resistance: 157.776, 157.875, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.50 pivot turns the sweep into a failed reclaim and reopens the 157.25 sweep low
Acceptance above the 157.78 bounce high and the 157.875 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts 158.00 psych in play
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC), NFP (13:30 UTC) and BoJ's Ueda (16:00 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 158.50 London top; small higher-low chain off 157.25.
The NY-open slide from 158.50, driven by hawkish BoJ minutes and the US tech sell-off, extended late Thursday through 157.50 to a 157.25 swing low before price reclaimed the 157.39 weekly low. Early Asia is retracing toward the 61.8% of the late drop near 157.54, still below EMA20/EMA50 and under the lower-highs line from the 157.87 NY bounce high.
Support: 157.39, 157.25
Resistance: 157.71, 157.87, 158.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.39 weekly low reopens the 157.25 swing low and 157.00
M15 close above the 157.71 pre-drop high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 158.00 round number sits above the 157.87 NY bounce high
Fed's Williams 09:30 UTC, US NFP 13:30 UTC and Ueda 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.50; late-NY range broken lower.
A yen bid at the NY open, driven by hawkish BoJ minutes and the US tech sell-off, took USD/JPY from the 158.50 session high to the 157.54 prior low. Early Asia then broke the late-NY 157.64–157.88 range and briefly undercut the 157.39 weekly low to a 157.25 swing low. The bounce is now retesting the 157.54 prior low from below.
Support: 157.39, 157.254, 157.00
Resistance: 157.537, 157.73, 157.875
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.54 prior low reopens the late-NY range toward the 38.2% fib at 157.73
Recovery through the 157.88 range high would neutralise the NY-session lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.25 swing low after the weekly low break puts the 157.00 round number in play
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC and Ueda at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read