20:02 UTC
Macro uptrend, capped by intervention zone · RSI 55 · price 159.735
Higher lows since May 2025; 152.9–160.7 range since Q1 2026 after a failed break to 164.
The macro uptrend from the May 2025 low at 142.11 has given way to a range between the September swing low at 152.89 and the 160.72 april high since Q1 2026. The June–July break above that high to the 163.99 cycle high failed when MoF intervention in late July/early August forced a sharp reversal, and the September low held near the 50% retracement of the 142–164 move. Price is back near 160 above the ema20 at 158.29 and a rising ema50 at 157.25, lifted by hawkish Fed repricing after the strong payrolls and CPI beats, with RSI at 54.7 mid-range.
Support: 158.291, 157.254, 152.886
Resistance: 160.722, 163.985
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above the 160.72 april high would re-open the 163.99 cycle high, but that zone is where Japan has intervened before.
- Any MoF rate check or yen-buying operation near 160 could repeat the summer snap-back toward the 152.89 swing low.
- A weekly close below the ema50 at 157.25 would shift the regime from uptrend to range-bound, with the rising trendline from the 142.11 low near 154.5.
- Japan Q3 GDP (Sun 23:50 UTC) and Chair Warsh (Mon 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read.