Lower highs from 160.06; post-flush range 159.52–159.85.
After the soft PPI failed to lift USD and the London high at 160.063 capped NY, the 18:00 UTC flush printed a 159.518 session low. The late bounce stalled at a 159.847 swing high near the 61.8% fib, and the 21:00 dip held a 159.568 higher low. Price sits below a falling ema20 (159.779) and ema50 (159.826), with RSI 42 and ATR 10 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 159.568, 159.518
Resistance: 159.779, 159.847, 160.063
What it said to watch
Close above the ema20 at 159.779 and the 159.847 swing high reopens the 160.063 london high
Break of the 159.568 higher low exposes the 159.518 session low; a close below confirms a lower low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Japan GDP Sun 23:50 UTC carry weekend gap risk
MoF intervention headlines near 160.00 could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing after NY close · RSI 42 · price 159.714
Lower highs from 160.06 with higher lows off 159.52; 159.52–159.85 range.
The 160.00 round number gave way after London, and the 18:00 UTC drop printed the session low at 159.52. Price now sits below a falling ema20 (159.78) and ema50 (159.83), with a lower high at 159.85 near the 61.8% of the sell-off. Higher swing lows at 159.57 and 159.64 are compressing the late-NY range on RSI 42 and a 10-pip ATR. Soft US PPI only produced a brief dip, and Tokyo's intervention rhetoric keeps 160.00 capped.
Support: 159.64, 159.52
Resistance: 159.78, 159.85, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.85 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens 160.00
Failure to hold the 159.64 swing low exposes the 159.52 session low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC in thin post-NY liquidity could move the range
Japan Q3 GDP (Sun 23:50 UTC) and MoF headlines are gap risk for the weekly open
22:24 UTC
Downtrend since 160.06, stalling above day low · RSI 42 · price 159.714
Lower highs from 160.06; 159.52 day low, then a 159.57 higher low, capped below EMAs.
Price faded from 160.06 after the soft US PPI. The 18:00 UTC drop printed a 159.52 day low, and the bounce stalled at 159.85 (bounce high), about 78% of the drop, with a 21:00 UTC higher low at 159.57. Late NY trade is compressing between the 159.64 late low and a falling ema20 at 159.78, with RSI 42 and ATR at 10 pips.
Support: 159.641, 159.568, 159.518
Resistance: 159.779, 159.847, 160.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the ema20 at 159.78 and the 159.85 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and the fade read
Loss of the 159.64 late low and the 159.57 higher low exposes the 159.52 day low
Psych 160 remains the upper cap; MoF intervention rhetoric is an unscheduled tail risk near it
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, about 95 minutes away, could shift this read into the Asia session
Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC is the next scheduled JPY risk
Post-drop range 159.52–159.85, higher low at 159.568.
The 18:00 UTC sell-off in late NY took USD/JPY from 159.93 to a 159.518 session low. The rebound stalled at the 159.847 swing high, and the 21:00 probe held 159.568 for a higher low. Price is capped under ema20 and ema50 with RSI 45 into the Friday close, back below 160.00 psych after the Asian-session rejection at 160.19 and with Tokyo's intervention warnings in the background.
Support: 159.568, 159.518
Resistance: 159.786, 159.847, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.847 swing high reopens 160.00 psych and the 61.8% retrace zone
Break of the 159.568 higher low, and of the rising-lows line, exposes the 159.518 session low
Hold back above ema20 at 159.786 is needed before the range top comes into play
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, then Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC, could gap the weekend open
Any MoF rate-check headline near 160.00 could shift this read
Higher lows off 159.52 session low, capped below ema50.
The 18:00 UTC drop from the 159.94 prior high to the 159.52 session low has since retraced about 70% on a chain of higher lows. Price holds just above the ema20 at 159.80 and sits below the ema50 at 159.84. RSI(14) is back to 50 and ATR is compressing to 8.5 pips into the late NY session; rallies through 160.00 earlier at the 160.19 high and the 160.06 london high were rejected.
Support: 159.80, 159.72, 159.52
Resistance: 159.843, 159.94, 160.06
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 159.84 puts the 159.94 prior high back in play
Failure to hold the 159.72 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 159.52 session low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and weekend gap risk around Japan Q3 GDP (Sun 23:50 UTC) could materially shift this read
Any MoF intervention or rate-check headline near 160.00 is an unscheduled tail risk
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, late-session rebound stalling under EMAs · RSI 46 · price 159.773
Lower highs from 160.19; rebound off 159.52 pausing at the 61.8% retracement.
Highs stepped lower from 160.19 through NY hours. The soft PPI wick to 159.78 held, but an unscheduled 40-pip drop late in the NY session broke to a 159.52 session low. The rebound has since printed higher lows near the 159.72 rebound low and is now stalling at the 61.8% retracement just under the ema20 (159.80), with RSI 45.8 neutral and ATR easing to 8.6 pips.
Support: 159.72, 159.518
Resistance: 159.798, 159.845, 159.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 159.85 breaks the lower-high trendline and opens a return to the 159.94 range top
Failure to hold the 159.72 rebound low exposes the 159.52 session low again
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin post-NY liquidity
Intervention headlines from Tokyo remain an unscheduled tail risk with the pair near 160
False break below 159.72 range floor, higher lows since 159.52.
The soft PPI barely dented the 159.72–160.06 session range. A late-NY flush to the 159.52 flush low broke the range floor, but price has climbed back above it on a recovery line of higher lows. It is now retesting ema20 near 159.80, with RSI(14) back to 47 from 28, and remains below ema50 at 159.85 with the pre-drop top at 159.94 overhead.
Support: 159.73, 159.52
Resistance: 159.848, 159.94, 160.06
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 at 159.85 puts price back in the range mid and exposes the 159.94 pre-drop top
Loss of the 159.73 range floor and the recovery line re-opens the 159.52 flush low
Session high 160.06 / 160.00 handle is where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped gains
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC; Japan Q3 GDP Sunday 23:50 UTC could gap the weekly open
ATR 8.8 pips easing after the flush, so the expected bar range is narrowing into the Friday close
Lower-high chain since 160.19, tight post-flush range below the EMAs.
Lower highs since the 160.19 spike before London, now 160.06 and the 159.96 lower high, as Tokyo's intervention warnings cap 160.00. The 18:00 UTC flush printed a 159.52 session low. Price is now holding a 159.67–159.78 shelf at the 50–61.8% fib of that drop, below ema20 (159.80) and ema50 (159.85), with RSI 45.8 and ATR at 9 pips.
Support: 159.67, 159.518
Resistance: 159.777, 159.803, 159.959
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.78 range top and ema20 at 159.80 reopens the 159.96 lower high and the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 159.67 shelf exposes the 159.52 session low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, then Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC, carry weekend gap risk
Any MoF intervention headline while the pair sits near 160.00 could break the range abruptly
Lower highs from 160.19; 18:00 UTC drop to 159.52, now retracing.
Asia's push to 160.19 was rejected against Tokyo's intervention warnings. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 160.06 and the 159.96 swing high, and an 18:00 UTC drop took out the Asia low and the NY 159.72 prior low to a 159.52 session low. The late-NY bounce is retesting the 159.72–159.74 area, near the 50% fib of that drop, with price still below ema20 (159.806) and ema50. RSI(14) has recovered to 44 from 28, and ATR is 9.3 pips.
Support: 159.724, 159.655, 159.518
Resistance: 159.806, 159.959, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above ema20 at 159.806 breaks the lower-highs trendline read toward the 159.96 swing high
Failure to hold the 159.72 prior low puts the 159.655 asia low and 159.52 session low back in play
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, in thin post-NY liquidity, could shift this read
MoF intervention risk persists on any approach to the 160.00 round number
Late-NY break of 159.72–160.06 range, now retesting range floor.
After Tokyo jawboning capped the early spike to 160.19, the pair held a 159.72–160.06 range through London and the soft-headline PPI. A late-NY flush cut through the range floor to a session low at 159.518, with RSI dipping to 28. The rebound is retesting 159.72–159.75, around the 50% fib of the 159.96–159.52 drop, with price still under both the ema20 and ema50 and RSI at 44.
Support: 159.724, 159.518
Resistance: 159.812, 159.858, 159.959
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 159.812 and the ema50 at 159.858 neutralises the range break
Rejection at the range floor near 159.72 keeps the lower-high sequence below the 159.959 prior high intact
Loss of the 159.518 session low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Range broken lower, bounce in progress · RSI 42 · price 159.728
Day range 159.72–160.06 broke in late NY; lower low at 159.518, now retesting the broken low from below.
After holding a 159.72–160.06 range through London and the PPI print, USD/JPY dropped about 40 pips in late NY to a session low at 159.518 with no scheduled data behind it. The bounce has retraced about 50% of the drop and is pressing the broken low at 159.72 from below, with price under both EMAs and RSI recovering to 41.9 from 28.
Support: 159.655, 159.518
Resistance: 159.724, 159.819, 159.941
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 159.72 broken low keeps the range break intact; failure to hold the 159.655 dip low puts 159.518 back in play
M15 close above the ema20 at 159.819 and then the 159.94 range top unwinds the break
A break below the 159.518 session low confirms a further lower low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Short-term downtrend after late-NY range break · RSI 40 · price 159.698
159.72–160.06 range broken lower, retesting the floor from below.
A sharp late-NY sell-off broke the 159.72 range floor and printed a session low at 159.518, extending below the early-London spike low at 159.655 that formed as Tokyo jawboned near 160. The bounce has stalled at the 50% retrace of the late-NY drop, right at the broken range floor and below the ema20 at 159.828. RSI(14) has recovered from 28 to 40 and ATR(14) has expanded to 10.2 pips.
Support: 159.655, 159.518
Resistance: 159.72, 159.828, 159.93
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 159.72 range floor reopens the ema20 at 159.828 and the pre-drop high at 159.93
Failure to hold the spike low at 159.655 exposes the session low at 159.518
Unscheduled MoF intervention headlines near 160 and Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read in thin late-Friday trade
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low · RSI 28 · price 159.571
Late-NY breakdown below the 159.72 NY low; lower highs since 160.19.
An unscheduled 18:00 UTC sell-off broke the 159.72–159.96 NY range, which had held after the soft PPI print, and set a 159.518 swing low below the 159.655 low from the morning jawboning dip, with the series of lower highs off 160.19 intact. RSI(14) is oversold at 28, ATR has expanded to 10.3 pips, and price sits under the ema20 at 159.855 and the ema50 at 159.881 heading into thin Friday-close liquidity.
Support: 159.518, 159.50
Resistance: 159.724, 159.855, 159.959
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 159.72 ny low reframes the break as a false break
Loss of the 159.518 swing low and the 159.50 round number extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the ema20 near 159.855 would neutralise the sell-off; 159.96 ny high caps the range
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC; MoF intervention headlines remain an unscheduled risk near 160
18:15 UTC
Range broken lower, momentum turned down · RSI 33 · price 159.694
Late-NY flush below the 159.72–160.06 London/NY range, spike low 159.55.
A 37-pip flush in the 18:00 UTC bar took USDJPY from 159.93 to a 159.55 spike low. It broke the range capped by the 160.06 London high and floored by the 159.72 NY low, then briefly swept the 159.655 prior low before closing at 159.68, a move in line with Tokyo's escalating intervention warnings. Price is now below the ema20 (159.885) and ema50, RSI(14) has dropped to 32.9 and ATR has expanded to 9.5 pips.
Support: 159.655, 159.55, 159.50
Resistance: 159.724, 159.885, 160.063
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 159.724 NY low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 159.55 spike low exposes the 159.50 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 at 159.885 neutralises the post-flush downside read
Further MoF/Katayama rhetoric or rate-check headlines could extend the JPY spike
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
18:02 UTC
Sideways after the Asia spike, EMAs flat · RSI 52 · price 159.911
London/NY range 159.72–160.06, higher lows off the NY low.
Asia's spike high at 160.188 reversed sharply to the 159.655 Asia low on intervention jitters. London and NY have since held a 159.72–160.06 range, capped at the 160.063 session high, and the soft PPI print produced only a brief dip. After London close, price has carved higher lows off the 159.724 NY low and sits just above flat EMAs, with the ema20 at 159.907. The bounce is stalling around the 61.8% fib of the NY selloff, with RSI at 52.3 and ATR compressing to 7.4 pips.
Support: 159.907, 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 159.959, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.959 swing high opens 160.00 and the 160.063 session high
Loss of the ema20 and the higher-low trendline exposes the 159.724 NY low
A break back through the 160.188 spike high would end the range read
MoF rhetoric or a rate check near 160.00 could produce another Asia-style flush toward the 159.655 Asia low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift this read
USD/JPY was rejected from the 160.19 day high late in the Asia session, dropping to the 159.66 day low as Tokyo's intervention warnings capped 160.00. Since then the London high at 160.06 and a 159.96 lower high have formed a descending cap, while the NY low at 159.72 held after the soft PPI. Price now sits on the flat ema20 and ema50 near 159.90, with RSI 50.8 and ATR at 7.7 pips.
Support: 159.90, 159.72, 159.66
Resistance: 159.96, 160.06, 160.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and 159.96 reopens the 160.06 london high, with the 160.19 day high beyond
Failure to hold the 159.90 ema20 brings the 159.72 ny low back into play, then the 159.66 day low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, or fresh MoF rhetoric near 160.00, could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Sideways below 160.00, rising lows from NY low · RSI 51 · price 159.907
Sub-160 range 159.72–160.06; higher lows off NY low, capped at 159.96.
Soft headline PPI and Tokyo's intervention rhetoric kept USD/JPY below the 160.06 London high. The NY low at 159.72 drew a rebound that stalled at the 159.96 rebound high. Late NY price sits flat on the EMA20/EMA50 near 159.90 with RSI(14) at 50.8 and ATR easing to 7.7 pips, leaving a sub-160 range with no break in play.
Support: 159.875, 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 159.959, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.875 swing low and the rising-lows trendline would end the higher-low sequence off the NY low
Loss of the 159.724 NY low exposes the 159.655 Asia low
M15 close above the 159.96 rebound high reopens the 160.06 London high, then the 160.19 Asia high
Any Japanese MoF rate-check or intervention headline near 160.00 could break the range sharply
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin Asia trade
NY range 159.72–160.06, lower highs and higher lows compressing at the EMAs.
Pre-London spike to the 160.188 day high reversed to the 159.655 day low on intervention rhetoric, and the soft PPI only produced a dip to 159.775 before the NY low printed at 159.724. Late NY has a lower swing high at 159.959 under the 160.063 London high and a higher pullback low at 159.806, with price pinned just below flat EMA20/EMA50 near 159.90 and RSI(14) at 49.6.
Support: 159.806, 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 159.959, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.959 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 160.063 London high
Failure to hold the 159.806 pullback low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 159.724 NY low
Retest of 160.00–160.19 day high area carries MoF intervention-headline risk, as seen in the earlier drop to 159.655
Fed's Jefferson speaks in ~6.5h; thin post-NY liquidity can stretch moves beyond the 8.1-pip ATR
17:01 UTC
Sideways, recovering from NY dip · RSI 53 · price 159.926
Range 159.72–160.06 below the 06:15 false break; NY printing higher lows.
The 06:15 UTC push to the 160.188 day high was a false break that flushed to the 159.655 day low on Tokyo intervention rhetoric. London capped at the 160.063 London high. The soft-PPI NY dip held at the 159.724 NY low, and price is back above the flat ema20/ema50 near 159.90 at the 50% fib of the morning drop. RSI(14) has recovered to 53.4 from 31, and the NY higher lows are intact.
Support: 159.90, 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 160.00, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.90 ema20 and the NY higher-lows line reopens the 159.724 NY low, then the 159.655 day low
Acceptance above the 160.000 round number and the 160.063 London high puts the 160.188 day high back in play
Fed's Daly is speaking now; Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC or any MoF intervention headline could gap the pair at the weekly open
16:46 UTC
Sideways, rotating around flat EMAs · RSI 53 · price 159.928
159.72–160.06 range, failed breaks on both sides.
A late-Asia spike to the 160.19 day high reversed hard to the 159.655 day low, and London's push to the 160.06 london high faded into the slightly soft US PPI print. NY swept below the London-session lows to 159.72, the ny low, then reclaimed the level. Price now sits at 159.93, just above flat ema20/ema50 near 159.90 and at the 61.8% of the london high–ny low fib, with RSI 52.9 neutral and ATR at 8.6 pips, up from 6.7.
Support: 159.896, 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 160.00, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly speaks in ~15 min, a likely catalyst for a break of the range edges
M15 close above the 160.00 round number and the 160.06 london high would reopen the 160.19 day high
Failure to hold ema20 near 159.90 shifts focus back to the 159.72 ny low, then the 159.655 day low
Fresh MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric near 160.00 has already produced sharp dips today
Rejection at the 61.8% london high–ny low fib keeps the range read intact
16:31 UTC
Sideways, lower highs through NY · RSI 48 · price 159.869
159.72–160.06 NY range with descending highs; price just under the flat EMA cluster.
Mid-NY, the pair is printing lower highs from the 160.063 session high after the slightly soft PPI print. The 16:00 UTC bounce stalled at the falling trendline near 159.92, just above the ema20/ema50 cluster (159.893/159.896), which also sits at the fib 50% of the drop. RSI(14) has recovered to 47.7 from 31.4. Buyers defended the 159.724 NY low, and the 159.655 day low from the pre-London flush sits beneath it.
Support: 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 159.896, 159.991, 160.063
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.991 lower high breaks the descending-highs trendline and reopens 160.063 session high
Failure to hold the 159.724 NY low exposes the 159.655 day low
Rejection again at the ema50 / fib 50% zone keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (in ~30 min) could shift this read
Any fresh MoF intervention rhetoric near 160.00 can produce sharp dips like the pre-London flush
ATR at 8.7 pips is rising from 6.9; expect wider M15 bars into the NY close
16:16 UTC
Sideways, lower highs inside a range · RSI 50 · price 159.884
159.72–160.06 range since London, lower highs from the 160.19 spike.
USDJPY has ranged 159.72–160.06 since the late-Asia spike to 160.19 was rejected on Tokyo intervention rhetoric. The soft headline PPI dip to 159.78 was bought, but a NY-session slide set the 159.72 session low. Price has since recovered to the 50% retrace of the midday drop, sitting just above the flat EMA20/50 cluster near 159.90, with lower highs at 160.19, 160.06 and 159.99 capping the bounce.
Support: 159.82, 159.72
Resistance: 159.99, 160.06, 160.19
What it said to watch
A close above the 159.99 post-PPI high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 160.06 midday high
Loss of the 159.82 pullback low puts the 159.72 session low back in play
Fed's Daly speaks in ~45 min; intervention headlines near 160.00 can repeat the 160.19 asia spike reversal, with ATR(14) already expanding to 8.8 pips
USD/JPY was rejected above 160.00 twice, at the 160.188 Asia peak and the 160.063 london high, forming lower highs as intervention warnings capped the handle. NY sold off to a 159.724 ny low an hour after the soft PPI, then bounced to sit just under the flat ema20 at 159.894 and ema50, near the 50% fib of the drop. RSI(14) has recovered to 47 from 31, and ATR(14) is up to 8.7 pips.
Support: 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 159.894, 159.991, 160.063
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.991 ny high puts the 160.063 london high and the lower-highs line back in play
Failure to hold the 159.724 ny low exposes the 159.655 warning low from the Asia drop
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (in ~1h) could materially shift this read
Any MoF rhetoric or sharp JPY spike would override the range structure
15:46 UTC
Sideways, NY tilting lower · RSI 45 · price 159.859
Lower highs since the 160.188 session high; range 159.65–160.06.
The early-London spike to the 160.188 session high was rejected on Tokyo intervention warnings, and the pair has ranged 159.65–160.06 since. NY printed lower highs and a 159.724 NY low after the soft PPI headline; price is now back at the 50% retrace of that drop, just under the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 159.90, with RSI 45 and ATR expanding to 8.8 pips.
Support: 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 159.896, 159.991, 160.188
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read within the next bars
M15 close back above the 159.991 NY high and 160.00 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 159.724 NY low exposes the 159.655 session low
Rejection at the ema20 near 159.90 keeps the NY lower-high sequence intact
Any MoF/Katayama rhetoric spike could push price abruptly through the range lows
Lower highs inside the Asian range, NY low defended.
London and NY have stayed inside the Asian range (159.655–160.188). The lower high at 160.063 was rejected ahead of soft PPI, and the NY low at 159.724 drew a sharp bounce as RSI(14) recovered from 31.4. Price is back near the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib, just under the flat ema cluster at 159.90, while ATR expands to 9 pips on intervention-sensitive trade near 160.
Support: 159.724, 159.655
Resistance: 159.90, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman in ~19 min and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the 159.90 ema cluster and the NY selloff fib 61.8% (~159.93) puts the lower-high trendline at 160.06 back in focus
Failure to hold the 159.72 NY low exposes the 159.655 asia low
A break above the 160.188 asia high ends the lower-high sequence, with MoF intervention risk rising above 160
15:15 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 159.784
Lower highs from 160.188; London low at 159.733 under pressure.
USDJPY is printing lower highs from the 160.188 asia high and the 160.063 london high. The slide during NY hours followed the softer US PPI and intervention warnings, and price is now pressing the 159.733 London low, below the ema20 at 159.905. RSI(14) at 31.4 is close to oversold, and ATR expanding to 8.6 pips shows the move is picking up pace.
Support: 159.655, 159.518, 159.319
Resistance: 159.905, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 159.655 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 159.518 prior low
A move back to the 159.32 swing low would retest yesterday's intervention-warning spike low
A close back above the ema20 at 159.905 would neutralise the lower-highs read
A break of the lower highs trendline and the 160.063 london high would reopen the 160.188 asia high
15:00 UTC
Intraday range, slipping to the lower half · RSI 38 · price 159.828
Lower highs from 160.188 day high, NY low at 159.754.
USD/JPY was rejected under the 160.00 handle again after the slightly soft PPI print, slipping to a NY low of 159.754 and closing below the ema20 (159.922) and ema50 (159.908). RSI(14) sits at 38.2 and ATR has expanded to 8.2 pips. Highs keep stepping down from the 160.188 day high, where Katayama's warning sent the pair to the 159.655 spike low, and the London high at 160.063 capped the latest push.
Support: 159.754, 159.655
Resistance: 159.922, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.754 NY low exposes the 159.655 spike low
Recovery above the ema20 at 159.922, near the 50% fib of the London high to NY low drop, neutralises the slide
Break above the lower-highs line from the 160.188 day high reopens the 160.063 London high
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF intervention headlines remain a tail risk
The soft US PPI headline dip to the 159.775 ppi low was bought, but the bounce stalled at the 159.99 post-ppi high. That leaves lower highs from the 160.188 Asia spike and the 160.063 london high, with 160.00 capping amid Tokyo intervention warnings. Price has slipped back below the ema20 (159.933) and ema50 (159.912) early in the NY session, RSI(14) 44.6 and ATR(14) 7.7 pips.
Support: 159.775, 159.655
Resistance: 159.912, 159.99, 160.063
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.775 ppi low exposes the 159.655 spike low from the post-Asia drop
Reclaiming the ema50 and a close above the 160.063 london high would break the lower-highs read
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Any escalation in MoF/Katayama intervention language is the main tail risk near 160.00
14:31 UTC
Sideways, rotating around 159.90 · RSI 54 · price 159.957
London range 159.73–160.06 holding, PPI dip bought.
USD/JPY has ranged between the 159.73 london low and the 160.06 session high since the late-Asia drop from the 160.19 day high. The midday push through the 160.00 round number failed, and the slightly soft US PPI then took price to a 159.78 ppi low that was bought. Early in the NY session price sits back above the ema20 at 159.94, about 63% up the PPI dip fib, with RSI 53.8 neutral and ATR at 7.5 pips.
Support: 159.937, 159.775, 159.733
Resistance: 160.00, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.063 session high reopens the 160.188 day high and the lower-highs line
Rejection again at the 160.00 round number keeps the range read intact, with Tokyo intervention warnings concentrated at this handle
Failure to hold the 159.775 ppi low exposes the 159.733 london low
A slip back below the ema20 at 159.937 returns price to the middle of the range
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Sideways, range-bound under 160.06 · RSI 50 · price 159.932
159.65–160.19 session range, higher lows off the late-Asia drop.
The 13:30 UTC PPI headline miss produced a wick to the 159.775 ppi low that was bid straight back above 159.90. Early in NY hours the pair sits just below the ema20 and above the ema50 at 159.911, capped by the 160.063 london high and holding the higher-low trendline off the late-Asia drop, when Takaichi's US-coordination remarks knocked it from the 160.188 session high to the 159.655 session low. Price is near the 50% of that drop fib, with RSI 50.3 and ATR 7.4 pips showing no directional pressure.
Support: 159.911, 159.775, 159.655
Resistance: 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.063 london high reopens the 160.188 session high
Loss of the ema50 at 159.911 and the 159.775 ppi low breaks the higher-low trendline
Close below the 159.655 session low negates the range read
Fed's Bowman 15:50 UTC and Daly 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF intervention headline could override the range structure
Lower highs from 160.188, higher lows from 159.655, price pinned at ema50.
The late-Asia day high at 160.188 was followed by the intervention-warning drop to the session low at 159.655. The 12:15 UTC push stalled at 160.063 for a lower high. The soft headline PPI wick to 159.775 (the ppi low) was bought back to the ema50 at 159.91, extending the higher lows, with price just under the ema20 at 159.936, RSI(14) neutral at 47.6 and ATR 7.6 pips.
Support: 159.91, 159.775, 159.655
Resistance: 159.936, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.063 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 160.188 day high
Failure to hold the 159.775 ppi low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 159.655 session low
Fed's Bowman 15:50 UTC and Daly 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF/Katayama escalation risks a repeat of the sharp drop seen after the day high
Range 159.75–160.06 after failed hold above 160.00.
London's push through 160.00 to a 160.063 session high failed to hold. The soft PPI headline then knocked early NY down to 159.775, retracing most of the London leg before the bar recovered with a long lower wick near 159.90. Price sits just below a flattening ema20 at 159.938 and the ema50 at 159.910, RSI 47, with ATR(14) widening to 7.6 pips off the PPI bar.
Support: 159.775, 159.655
Resistance: 159.938, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.775 PPI low exposes the 159.655 Asia low, set on the 06:30 UTC intervention-rhetoric drop
Recovery above ema20 159.938 and the 160.063 session high reopens the 160.188 Asia high
Fed's Bowman 15:50 UTC and Daly 17:00 UTC; fresh MoF/Katayama remarks could repeat the Asia-session flush
Two pushes through psych 160 failed: the late-Asia spike to the 160.19 day high reversed to the 159.66 day low on Takaichi's intervention comments, and London's 160.06 lower high faded into the soft headline PPI, which knocked the pair to a 159.80 PPI low at the London-NY transition. Price now sits between EMA20 (159.94) and EMA50 (159.91), RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR(14) compressed to 7 pips. The current bar is retracing toward the 61.8% level of the London swing.
Support: 159.802, 159.744, 159.655
Resistance: 160.00, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.80 PPI low exposes the 159.74 london low, then the 159.66 day low
M15 close above the 160.06 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 160.19 day high back in play
Repeat rejection at psych 160 keeps the range read intact
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could shift the read
Any escalation in MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric could trigger another flush like the one to the day low
Higher lows off 159.66 against lower highs from 160.19, compressing ahead of PPI.
London pushed through the 160.00 round number to a 160.06 London high, but the last full bar reversed to 159.91. Price now sits on the ema20 at 159.94, with RSI(14) cooled from 62 to 51.7, under a falling resistance line from the 160.19 session high spike. Tokyo's intervention warnings keep capping follow-through above 160.00, and ATR has compressed to 7.1 pips into US PPI.
Support: 159.909, 159.841, 159.655
Resistance: 160.00, 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC: core MoM above the 0.3% forecast puts the 160.06 London high and 160.19 session high in play, while a soft core print exposes the ema50 at 159.91
M15 close below the ema50 at 159.91 (38.2% fib) opens the 159.84 higher low
Failure to hold the 159.66 session low breaks the higher-low sequence
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines above the 160.00 round number could reverse price sharply
Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could extend any post-PPI move
Rising lows out of London; London range broken above, capped below morning spike high.
USD/JPY broke above the 159.73–159.95 London range around 12:00 UTC and is holding just over the 160.00 round number. The move came off a chain of rising lows, below the 06:15 UTC spike high at 160.19 that was sharply rejected amid Tokyo intervention warnings. Price sits above the ema20 at 159.94 with RSI 62, and ATR has compressed to 6.7 pips. That leaves the session high at 160.06 as the near cap into the 13:30 UTC PPI release.
Support: 160.00, 159.942, 159.733
Resistance: 160.063, 160.188, 160.40
What it said to watch
US core PPI at 13:30 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read; ATR of 6.7 pips understates the likely release range
Failure to hold the 160.00 round number and the ema20 at 159.94 puts price back inside the London range
M15 close above the 160.19 spike high exposes key res at 160.40, where MoF intervention risk is concentrated
Break of the rising lows trendline and the London low at 159.73 would undo the higher-low sequence and revisit the 159.66 retracement base
London range 159.74–159.96 broken higher just before NY; Asia high 160.19 still caps.
Since London opened, USDJPY has printed higher lows off the 159.74 swing low and broke the 159.96 London high at 12:00 UTC. It is now pressing the 160.00 intervention line flagged by Katayama's warnings, with a session high at 160.06 and the Asia high at 160.19, where the 05:45 UTC spike was rejected 53 pips lower. RSI(14) at 60.9 is firm but not stretched, price holds above a rising ema20 at 159.935, and ATR has compressed to 6.8 pips ahead of PPI.
Support: 159.962, 159.935, 159.744
Resistance: 160.063, 160.188, 160.40
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) in 44 min could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 159.96 london high turns the break into a false break
Clearing the 160.19 asia high exposes the 160.40 res area named in macro levels
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 159.74 swing low ends the intraday HL chain
Any MoF escalation near 160.00 risks a repeat of the sharp 06:00 UTC rejection
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering from late-Asia drop · RSI 63 · price 160.017
Higher lows since 159.655, pressing 160.00 psych below Asia high.
After the sharp rejection from the 160.188 Asia high into 159.655 amid Tokyo's 'one-sided' FX warnings, London has built a chain of rising lows and retraced about two-thirds of the drop, retesting the 160.00 psych with a 160.063 session high. RSI(14) at 62.8 is firm but not stretched, price holds above a rising ema20 (159.927) and ema50 (159.899), and ATR has compressed to 6.8 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 160.00, 159.927, 159.842
Resistance: 160.063, 160.188
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, in about 1h, could materially shift this read and expand ranges from the compressed 6.8-pip ATR
M15 close back below the 160.00 psych and the ema20 at 159.927 undoes the London retest
Failure to hold the 159.842 higher low breaks the rising lows sequence
Close above the 160.063 session high and the 160.188 Asia high clears the earlier rejection zone; 160.40 is the next level flagged in the digest
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and MoF intervention rhetoric remain headline risk around 160.00
12:16 UTC
Short-term up, higher lows since London open · RSI 64 · price 160.053
London range broken higher, holding above 160.00 below the 160.19 session high.
USDJPY broke the 159.84–159.96 London range late in the session and is back above 160.00. That retraces about 75% of the 06:30 UTC drop from the 160.19 session high to 159.66, which came as Tokyo stepped up its verbal pushback. RSI(14) is at 64, ATR has compressed to ~7 pips, and price sits above both EMAs along rising lows ahead of US PPI.
Support: 159.96, 159.918, 159.84
Resistance: 160.188, 160.40
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~74 min) could materially shift this read, and MoF intervention risk above 160.00 can produce sharp reversals
An M15 close back below the 159.96 range top turns the breakout into a false break, with the ema20 at 159.92 next
A break of the rising lows trendline (near 159.90) and of the 159.84 range low negates the higher-low sequence
Clearing the 160.19 session high exposes the 160.40 res zone flagged in the macro read
Post-rejection grind back toward 160.00, higher lows since London open.
The pre-London false break above 160.00 to the 160.188 spike high was rejected to a 159.655 spike low as Tokyo stepped up intervention warnings. Since London open, higher lows along a rising trendline have lifted price back to 159.95, near the 61.8% of the spike fib and just under the round number, with price above the ema20 at 159.907. ATR has compressed from 10.2 to 6.7 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 159.907, 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (89 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 160.00 round number reopens the 160.188 spike high, where MoF rhetoric has capped
Break of the rising trendline and the ema20 at 159.907 puts the 159.733 london low back in play
Loss of 159.733 london low exposes the 159.655 spike low
11:46 UTC
Range after rejected spike, volatility compressing · RSI 54 · price 159.92
Tight London range 159.84–159.96 with rising lows, capped below 160.00.
The late-Asia push through the 160.00 round number to a 160.188 spike high reversed in one bar to the 159.655 spike low, as Tokyo's verbal warnings capped the move. Since London open the pair has built rising lows off the 159.73 spike base. It is coiling in a 12-pip band between the 159.84 london low and the 159.962 london high, right at the 50% retrace of that drop. ATR has compressed from 10 to 6.9 pips, RSI 53.8 is neutral, and price sits just above flat EMAs.
Support: 159.84, 159.73, 159.655
Resistance: 159.962, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.962 london high and 160.00 round number reopens the 160.188 spike high and the 61.8% retrace near 159.98
Break below the rising lows and the 159.84 london low exposes the 159.73 spike base, then the 159.655 spike low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) in ~104 min is likely to resolve the ATR compression
Any fresh MoF/BoJ language near 160.00 can repeat the sharp rejection seen at the spike high
Post-spike consolidation, higher lows since London open.
The late-Asia push to a 160.188 spike high was sharply rejected to the 159.655 spike low as Katayama's warnings on one-sided moves hit the tape, leaving a false break of 160.00. London has since built higher lows from the 159.733 london low and is now holding the 50% retracement near 159.92, just above the flat ema20 (159.90) and ema50 (159.885), while ATR has compressed from 10.2 to 7.2 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 159.84, 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 159.962, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 159.96 london high and the 160.00 psych level reopens the 160.188 spike high
Break of the 159.84 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 159.733 london low and then the 159.655 spike low
Fresh MoF/Katayama rhetoric or intervention near 160.00 can override the structure
11:16 UTC
Sideways after a failed push above 160.00 · RSI 50 · price 159.891
Tight London consolidation 159.84–159.96 inside the 160.19–159.66 spike range.
The late-Asia push through the 160.00 psych level to a 160.19 spike high was a false break: it reversed to 159.66 inside one bar as Tokyo flagged 'one-sided' FX moves. London has since held a 159.84–159.96 consolidation above the 159.73 london low, retracing about 57% of the drop on the 160.19 drop fib. Price sits just under the ema20 (159.897) and above the ema50 (159.883), with RSI 49.9 and ATR compressing from 10.3 to 7.3 pips.
Support: 159.883, 159.841, 159.733
Resistance: 159.961, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could break the range; a hot core puts the 160.00 psych level and the 160.19 spike high back in play
M15 close above the 159.96 range high and 160.00 reopens the spike high, where fresh MoF/Katayama rhetoric is the main risk
Failure to hold the 159.84 range low exposes the 159.73 london low and the 159.66 spike low
Loss of the ema50 at 159.883 tilts the consolidation toward the range low
London range 159.84–159.96 above session low 159.73, below rejected 160.19 asia high.
Late-Asia's push through 160.00 psych to the 160.19 asia high reversed within two bars on Tokyo's intervention warnings, flushing to a 159.66 flush low. London has since built higher lows off the 159.73 session low and is now compressing in a 159.84–159.96 range around flat EMAs near the 50% retrace. RSI is neutral at 52 and ATR has eased to 7.5 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 159.84, 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 159.961, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.84 range low breaks the London higher-low trendline and exposes the 159.73 session low, then the 159.66 flush low
Close above the 159.96 session high reopens 160.00 psych and the 160.19 asia high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h), core YoY f/c 5%, could expand ATR well beyond the current 7.5 pips
Fresh MoF/Katayama intervention language near 160.00 risks a repeat of the asia high rejection
10:46 UTC
Neutral, compressing after Asia rejection · RSI 53 · price 159.938
Higher lows under a flat 159.95 cap.
Asia ran to a 160.188 session high before a sharp rejection on Tokyo jawboning, with the drop holding at the 159.73 London low. London has since carved higher lows along a rising trendline into the 159.95 London high, near the 50% drop retrace. ATR(14) is compressing to 7.7 pips with RSI neutral at 53.
Support: 159.896, 159.842, 159.733
Resistance: 159.948, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 159.95 London high exposes the 160.00 psych level and the 160.188 session high.
A break of the 159.84 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 159.73 London low. The ema20 at 159.896 is the first test.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) and any MoF headlines near 160.00 could materially shift this read.
10:31 UTC
Range-bound under 160.00 after two failed breaks · RSI 53 · price 159.901
London coil 159.84–159.95, rising lows off 159.66.
Two pushes through psych 160 failed. Late NY yesterday's spike hit 160.04 before dumping to 159.32, and the Asia spike high at 160.19 snapped back to the 159.66 spike low as Tokyo stepped up intervention warnings. London has since coiled between the 159.84 London low and the 159.95 London high on rising lows, holding just above a flat EMA20/EMA50 near the 50% spike fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.5 and ATR(14) easing to 7.9 pips.
Support: 159.893, 159.84, 159.655
Resistance: 159.948, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; a renewed test of psych 160 carries intervention-whipsaw risk
M15 close above the 159.95 London high and the 61.8% spike fib (~159.98) exposes 160.00 and the 160.19 spike high
Close below the 159.84 London low breaks the rising lows line and opens the 159.66 spike low
Tight London range below the 160.00 rejection, inside the Asian range.
USD/JPY printed an Asia high at 160.188, then dropped 53 pips in one bar to 159.655 as Japanese officials stepped up FX jawboning. London has since held a 159.744–159.948 range, retracing under half that drop. Price sits just under the ema20 and above the ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.9 and ATR(14) compressing to 8.2 pips.
Support: 159.878, 159.744, 159.655
Resistance: 159.948, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
Close above the london high at 159.948 and the 160 psych level reopens a test of the 160.188 asia high, with intervention risk rising there
Failure to hold the ema50 and the 159.744 london low exposes the 159.655 drop low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could break the London range in either direction
Further MoF/Takaichi language near 160.00 could trigger another sharp rejection
10:01 UTC
Sideways under 160.00 after a sharp rejection · RSI 47 · price 159.865
Compression range 159.82–159.95 below the 160.19 Asia high.
The late-Asia push through 160.00 to the 160.19 Asia high was rejected within a bar on Tokyo's FX warnings, dropping to a 159.66 spike low. London has since compressed between the 159.82 London low and the 159.95 London high. Price sits just under the flat ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 46.9 and ATR(14) easing from 10.3 to 8.5 pips.
Support: 159.82, 159.73, 159.655
Resistance: 159.95, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.95 London high puts the 160.00 psych level and the 160.19 Asia high back in focus, with intervention risk rising there
Failure to hold the 159.82 London low exposes the 159.73 swing low and the 159.66 spike low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%, core MoM f/c 0.3%) could break the London range in either direction
Any MoF rate check or escalation in official language near 160.00 could trigger a fast drop through the range lows
Higher lows off 159.655 spike low, capped near 159.95.
The London open pushed through 160.00 to a 160.188 session high before Tokyo's FX warnings drove a 53-pip rejection to the 159.655 spike low. Higher lows since have lifted price back to 159.89, sitting just under ema20 and above ema50, with the 159.95 london cap near the 50–61.8% fib of that drop. RSI 49.9 is neutral and ATR at 8.8 pips is easing from the post-spike 10.3.
Support: 159.84, 159.74, 159.655
Resistance: 159.95, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.95 london cap brings the 160.00 psych line and the session high back into view
Failure to hold the 159.84 micro low, then the 159.74 higher low, breaks the rising-lows sequence
Any MoF language or rate-check headlines near 160.00 risk a repeat of the spike-low whipsaw
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Range after rejection, momentum neutral · RSI 51 · price 159.89
Higher lows off 159.744 inside the post-spike range, capped below 160.00.
A false break above the 160 psych line ran to a 160.188 spike high in late Asia. The 06:30 UTC bar then reversed to a 159.655 spike low after Takaichi and Katayama's intervention jawboning. London has since built rising lows off the 159.744 london low and is holding just above the ema50, with price stalled near the 50% retrace of the drop and capped by the 159.948 london high.
Support: 159.878, 159.744, 159.655
Resistance: 159.948, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.948 london high puts the 61.8% drop fib (~159.98) and the 160 psych line back in play
Failure to hold the ema50 and the rising lows line exposes the 159.744 london low, then the 159.655 spike low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC in ~4h could materially shift this read; a renewed push through 160.00 carries MoF intervention whipsaw risk
ATR easing to 8.8 from 10.3 shows post-spike ranges compressing ahead of the data
London higher lows from 159.74, capped below 159.95.
USDJPY pushed through 160.00 psych to a 160.19 session high just before London open, then was knocked back to the 159.66 spike low within 15 minutes as Tokyo's warnings on 'one-sided' moves kept the level capped. London has since built higher lows from the 159.73 london low and is holding just above the ema20 and ema50, but it is stalling under the 159.95 london high, near the 50–61.8% retrace of the drop. RSI 50.9 is neutral and ATR 9.1 pips is easing off the spike.
Support: 159.877, 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 159.948, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.95 london high puts 160.00 psych and the 160.19 session high back in play
Break below the ema50 at 159.88 and the london hl trendline re-exposes the 159.73 london low, then the 159.66 spike low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print pressures 160.00 again
Any escalation in Japanese official rhetoric near 160.00 risks another sharp spike lower
Higher lows below 159.95 after false break above 160.00.
A late-Asia push through the 160.00 psych line to a 160.188 spike high reversed sharply to the 159.655 spike low as Tokyo warnings kept the figure a soft cap. Early London has built higher lows from 159.733 and price is back above ema20 and ema50, near the 50% retrace. The 159.948 session high is capping, RSI is neutral at 51 and ATR is easing to 9 pips.
Support: 159.876, 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 159.948, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.948 session high reopens the 160.00 psych line and the 61.8% retrace near 159.98
Failure to hold the 159.733 higher low and the ema50 at 159.876 exposes the 159.655 spike low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC: a hot core print could drive a retest of the 160.188 spike high, with intervention rhetoric the tail risk
Late-Asia false break above 160.00 rejected, higher lows since, lower high at 159.948.
A late-Asia push through the 160 line to a session high of 160.188 failed, with price sliding to a spike low at 159.655 as MoF warnings kept intervention risk live. Since then the market has built a swing low at 159.733 and recovered to about 159.90 in the first hour of London, back above ema20 and ema50, with RSI neutral at 51.7 and a lower high at 159.948 capping. ATR has expanded to 9.7 pips after the spike, and price sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the late-Asia drop.
Support: 159.875, 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 159.948, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.948 lower high puts the 160 line back in play. A probe toward the 160.188 session high is where intervention-spike risk is greatest.
Loss of ema50 at 159.875 and the 159.733 swing low would reopen the 159.655 spike low.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read. A hot print raises the odds of another 160.00 test.
Any fresh MoF rate-check headlines could produce an outsized JPY spike through intraday support.
Late Asia pushed through the psych 160 line to a 160.188 spike high before a sharp rejection to 159.655, the rejection low, as MoF intervention warnings capped the level. Early London has built a higher low at 159.733 and sits just above a flat EMA20/EMA50 near 159.89, around the 50% retrace of the rejection leg, under the 159.945 recent high. RSI(14) is neutral at 50.6 and ATR(14) is 10.1 pips.
Support: 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 159.945, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.945 recent high puts psych 160 and the 160.188 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 159.733 higher low exposes the 159.655 rejection low and breaks the higher-low trendline
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; MoF rate-check headlines carry spike risk near 160
08:16 UTC
Rebounding after a sharp rejection, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 159.893
Rising lows off the 159.655 spike low, capped below 160.00.
Late Asia pushed through 160.00 to a 160.188 session high, then the drop reversed hard to a 159.655 spike low at 06:30 UTC, with MoF warnings keeping the intervention line in focus. Early London has rebuilt to 159.89 on rising lows and recovered about half the drop. Price is pinned between EMA20 (159.888) and EMA50 (159.872), RSI(14) is 49, and ATR(14) has expanded to 10.3 pips from about 6.
Support: 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 160.00 psych (61.8% of the drop sits at 159.99) reopens the 160.188 session high
Break of the 159.733 higher low ends the rising lows and exposes the 159.655 spike low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5h) and any MoF rate-check headlines could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Range after failed 160 push, momentum neutral · RSI 47 · price 159.866
Rising lows from 159.655 spike low, capped under ema20.
A pre-London push through psych 160 to a 160.188 session high was rejected within one bar, a 53-pip drop to the 159.655 spike low that fits the MoF intervention-warning backdrop. Since then the swing low at 159.733 and a series of rising lows have held, while ema20 at 159.889 caps the bounce near the fib 38.2%. RSI(14) sits at 47 and ATR has expanded to 10.1 pips from about 6, both reflecting the 06:30 UTC flush. The prior low at 159.533 is the next reference below the spike low.
Support: 159.733, 159.655, 159.533
Resistance: 159.889, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 159.889 reopens psych 160 and the fib 50% near 159.92
Break of the 159.733 swing low and the rising-lows line exposes the 159.655 spike low
Close below the 159.655 spike low opens the prior low at 159.533
A retest of psych 160 and the 160.188 session high meets intervention and rate-check headline risk
US core PPI at 13:30 UTC (f/c 5% YoY) could materially shift this read
Second failed push above 160.00 in 24h; lower high at 159.886 since the spike.
The pre-London spike high at 160.188 failed inside one bar, dropping to a 159.655 spike low. It is the second rejection above the 160.00 psych level in 24h, after yesterday's NY flush low at 159.319, as escalating MoF warnings police the figure. Price sits below the ema20 (159.893) and ema50 (159.873) with RSI 40.6, and ATR has expanded to 10.1 pips from about 6.
Support: 159.733, 159.655, 159.319
Resistance: 159.873, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
A break of the 159.733 swing low exposes the 159.655 spike low
Failure to hold the 159.655 spike low opens a path toward yesterday's 159.319 flush low
Reclaiming the ema50 at 159.873 and the ema20 above it, past the 159.886 lower high, would undercut the rejection read
A recovery beyond the 50% retracement of the spike (159.92) puts the 160.00 psych level back in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, or any rate-check headline near 160.00, could move the pair sharply in either direction
False break above 160.00 reversed; rebuilding inside the 159.65–159.95 range.
Second rejection above the 160.00 round number in 15 hours. The late-Asia probe to the 160.188 session high reversed to the 159.655 spike low inside one bar, echoing yesterday's NY spike to 160.044 as MoF intervention warnings police the level. Price is now at 159.82, holding the 159.733 swing low but below the ema50 and ema20. RSI is at 43 and ATR has expanded to 10 pips from around 6.
Support: 159.733, 159.655
Resistance: 159.877, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
A break of the 159.733 swing low exposes the 159.655 spike low
Recovery above the ema50 at 159.877 and ema20 at 159.906 (near the drop fib 50%) puts the 160.00 round number back in play
Another trade through the 160.188 session high would negate the false-break read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) or any MoF rate-check headline could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Choppy, failing at 160.00 after spike rejection · RSI 47 · price 159.871
A late-Asia push through the 160.00 psych line ran to a 160.188 session high and reversed within a bar to a 159.655 spike low. That repeats yesterday's NY-session failure at 160.04 as Tokyo's intervention warnings cap the pair. Price is now retracing about 38.2% of that drop, just under the ema50 at 159.88 and ema20 at 159.916, with RSI(14) cooled from 75 to 46.6 and ATR(14) up to 10.2 pips from roughly 5.5.
Support: 159.733, 159.655, 159.319
Resistance: 159.88, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema50 at 159.88 and the 50% spike retrace near 159.92 puts 160.00 psych back in play
Loss of the 159.733 swing low exposes the 159.655 spike low, and below that yesterday's 159.319 prior low
Renewed acceptance above the 160.188 session high would negate the false-break read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) and any MoF rate-check or intervention headlines could materially shift this read
False break above Asian range, price back below the Asian low.
Into London open, the Asian range (159.79–159.96) broke higher to a 160.188 session high. A 50-pip rejection leg then cut back through the asian low to a 159.655 session low. It is a second failure above 160.00 after yesterday's NY spike low at 159.319, as Tokyo's escalating intervention warnings cap the pair. Price sits below ema20 (159.922) and ema50 (159.881), RSI(14) has cooled from 75 to 39.2, and ATR(14) has expanded to 10 pips from 5–6.
Support: 159.655, 159.572, 159.319
Resistance: 159.79, 159.881, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 159.79 asian low and ema50 at 159.881 negates the false-break read
Failure to hold the 159.655 session low exposes the 159.572 swing low, then yesterday's 159.319 spike low
Another push through the 160.188 session high would turn the 160.00 rejection into a breakout
Any confirmed MoF action or 'decisive action' rhetoric near 160.00 could trigger an abrupt yen spike
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
06:46 UTC
Asia uptrend broken, sharp reversal from 160 · RSI 41 · price 159.817
False break above 160.00, price back inside the Asian range.
Late Asia pushed through psych 160 to a spike high at 160.188, then reversed in a single ~45-pip bar to a spike low at 159.655 under MoF intervention warnings. The asian low at 159.79 is being retested from just above, RSI(14) has dropped from 75.2 to 40.5, ATR has expanded to 10.2 pips and price sits below the ema50 at 159.885.
Support: 159.79, 159.655, 159.533
Resistance: 159.885, 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 159.885 ema50 weakens the false-break read and reopens psych 160
Failure to hold the asian low at 159.79 and then the 159.655 spike low exposes the prior low at 159.533
Acceptance above the 160.188 spike high negates the rejection
Any further MoF or rate-check headlines near 160 could trigger outsized moves
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher; higher lows since 23:30 UTC, pullback testing 160.00 area.
Late Asia cleared the Asian range top near 159.96 and yesterday's 160.044 spike prior high, tagging a 160.188 session high before easing to 160.06 as RSI(14) cools from 75.2 and ATR expands to 7.6 pips. The pullback is retesting the prior high just above 160.00, with the ema20 at 159.951 and rising Asian lows underneath, while MoF warnings near the intervention line keep two-way risk elevated.
Support: 160.044, 159.951, 159.869
Resistance: 160.188
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 160.044 prior high puts price back inside the Asian range and makes the breakout a false break
Clearing the 160.188 session high extends the higher-high chain into London
Break of the Asian lows trendline and the 159.869 swing low ends the higher-low sequence
Yesterday's 16:30 UTC flush from 160.044 to 159.319 shows how fast MoF headlines can reverse moves near 160.00
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Late Asia, ahead of the London open, USDJPY cleared 160.00 and yesterday's 160.04 prior high, extending to a 160.19 session high off a chain of higher lows from the 159.79 Asian low. RSI(14) is overbought at 75.2 and ATR has expanded to 7.1 pips as price presses the 160 MoF intervention line flagged in the digest.
Support: 160.04, 159.94, 159.79
Resistance: 160.19, 160.50
What it said to watch
A return below the 160.04 prior high would mark a false break, with ema20 at 159.94 the next reference
Loss of the Asian higher-low line and the 159.79 Asian low negates the intraday uptrend
160.50 round number is the next reference above the session high
MoF rhetoric or action near 160 could reverse price in a single bar, as yesterday's 159.32 wick showed
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, capped at 160.00 · RSI 61 · price 159.972
Asian higher lows under a 160.00 lid; second rejection above the figure.
Into the London open, Asia ground out higher lows from the 159.79 asian low and held above a rising ema20 and ema50. The probe to the 160.024 session high was rejected, a second failure above 160.00 after yesterday's 160.044 prior high spike flushed to 159.32 on MoF intervention nerves. RSI(14) sits at 61 and ATR has ticked back up to 6.2 pips.
Support: 159.87, 159.79
Resistance: 160.024, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.044 prior high breaks the 160.00 cap; MoF intervention risk rises sharply there
Loss of the ema50 and the asian higher lows trendline near 159.87 exposes the 159.79 asian low
Repeated failure near the 160.024 session high keeps the range-top read intact
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
Asia higher-low chain pressing the 160.00–160.04 ceiling.
Asia session has printed rising lows off the 159.790 Asian low, grinding back toward the 160.00 line. That line capped yesterday's 16:30 UTC spike high at 160.044, which flushed to 159.319 as MoF intervention warnings escalated. The 05:30 bar tagged a 160.024 Asia high and was rejected, but price holds above the ema20 at 159.911 with RSI(14) at 58.3 and ATR(14) compressed near 6 pips.
Support: 159.911, 159.869, 159.79
Resistance: 160.024, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.044 spike high breaks the 160.00 ceiling and puts the pair in intervention-risk territory
Loss of the 159.869 swing low and the rising lows trendline ends the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 159.790 asian low
Flush recovery 38.2% retracement at 159.755 sits just under the asian low
MoF/intervention headlines near 160.00 and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, pressing session high under 160.00.
The Asia session ground higher in a chain of higher lows from the 159.79 asia low and is now pressing the 159.978 session high, back under the 160.00 psych line. NY's spike high at 160.044 flushed to 159.32 on MoF intervention nerves, so this is a retest of that rejection zone. ATR(14) has compressed from 7.1 to 5.3 pips, RSI(14) 63.1, and price holds above both EMAs.
Support: 159.907, 159.858, 159.79
Resistance: 159.978, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.044 spike high clears yesterday's rejection; renewed supply at 160.00 psych repeats it
Close below the 159.858 swing low breaks the asia trendline and the higher-low chain
Escalation in MoF language or rate checks near 160.00 could trigger a fast JPY snap-back
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Asian session higher lows from 159.79, compressing under the 160.00 cap.
Asian session has ground higher on rising lows from the 159.79 asia low and is testing the 159.98 asia high, just under 160.00 psych. Yesterday's 16:30 UTC spike to the 160.04 spike high was rejected sharply to 159.32 amid MoF jawboning. Price holds above a rising ema20 (159.90) and ema50 (159.86), RSI at 61.6 and ATR compressing to 5.5 pips.
Support: 159.901, 159.858, 159.79
Resistance: 159.978, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.04 spike high breaks the post-rejection cap, with intervention risk rising above 160.00 psych
Break of the Asia rising trendline and the 159.86 swing low (near ema50) ends the higher-low sequence; 159.79 asia low next
US PPI at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Unscheduled MoF action near 160.00 remains a tail risk for a sharp drop
Higher lows inside a tight Asian range below 160.00.
Late Asia session is printing higher lows inside a 159.79–159.96 Asian range, with price above the ema20 (159.895) and ema50 and ATR(14) compressing to 5.4 pips. Overhead sits yesterday's NY false break of 160.00 psych: the 160.044 spike high was sharply rejected to 159.32 as MoF intervention warnings kept a cap on the pair.
Support: 159.895, 159.858, 159.79
Resistance: 159.961, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.96 asian high puts 160.00 psych and the 160.044 spike high back in play, where intervention risk is concentrated
Loss of the 159.858 swing low and the higher lows trendline reopens the 159.79 asian low
London open in roughly 2h is the first test of whether the Asian range expands
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print lifts the odds of another 160.00 test
Higher lows inside tight Asian range under 160.00.
Asia session is building higher lows inside a 159.79–159.96 Asian range, holding above the ema20 (159.891) and ema50 (159.85), with RSI at 56.4 and ATR compressed to 5.8 pips. Supply has capped price just under 160.00 since the 16:30 UTC spike high at 160.044 was rejected down to 159.32 amid MoF intervention warnings.
Support: 159.891, 159.858, 159.79
Resistance: 159.961, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.961 session high puts the 160.00 / 160.044 spike high back in play, where MoF intervention risk is elevated
Loss of the 159.858 swing low, then the 159.79 asian low, breaks the higher-low chain along the asia higher lows line
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 58 · price 159.926
Higher lows below 160.00 psych.
The Asia session is building higher lows off the 159.79 Asia low. Price holds above a rising ema20 and ema50 and is pressing the 159.96 Asia high, with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR at 6 pips. The spike recovery from NY's 16:30 UTC whipsaw (159.32–160.04) has retraced nearly all of the drop, but the 160.00 psych level and spike high remain capped, consistent with MoF intervention warnings near that zone.
Support: 159.888, 159.858, 159.79
Resistance: 159.961, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.04 spike high breaks the cap at 160.00 psych, though intervention risk makes overshoots prone to sharp reversals
Loss of the ema20 and the 159.86 swing low breaks the Asia higher lows chain
A drop back through the 159.79 Asia low re-opens the post-spike range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY spike low; Asian range 159.79–159.96 capped below 160.00.
Yesterday's NY spike to 160.04 was rejected hard to 159.32 as MoF warnings guarded the 160.00 psych line. Price has since retraced most of the drop on a chain of higher lows and now sits mid-Asia session just above the ema20, inside a 159.79–159.96 Asian range. RSI(14) has cooled from 63 to 52.6 and ATR is a compressed 6.1 pips.
Support: 159.843, 159.79, 159.716
Resistance: 159.961, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.79 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 159.716
Break above the 159.96 asian high puts the 160.00 psych line and 160.04 spike high back in play, where intervention risk is highest
Loss of the ema50 at 159.843 would signal the Asian grind fading
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF action can hit at any time near 160.00
Higher-low chain in Asia session after the 160.04 spike rejection.
Yesterday's 16:30 UTC spike to 160.04 was rejected sharply to 159.32 as MoF rhetoric capped the 160.00 line. The full recovery since has extended into a higher-low chain off the 159.79 session low along the Asia trendline. Mid-Asia session, price sits just under the 159.96 session high and above a rising ema20 and ema50; RSI(14) is 54 and ATR(14) is 6 pips.
Support: 159.883, 159.842, 159.79
Resistance: 159.961, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 159.883 and the Asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 159.79 session low turns the Asia structure lower
Close above the 159.961 session high and 159.982 prior high brings the 160.04 spike high back into play
Intervention risk near 160.00 can produce a sharp reversal at any time
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Holding above the 50% retracement of the 159.32–159.96 recovery keeps the pullback shallow
Higher lows through Asia, pressing the session high below 160.00.
The Asia session is grinding higher in a higher-low chain off the 159.79 Asian low, back toward the 160.00 psych level. Yesterday's NY spike to 160.04 was rejected 72 pips down to 159.32 as MoF warnings stacked up. Price holds above the ema20 at 159.881, with the session high at 159.96 the immediate cap and ATR(14) compressed at 6 pips.
Support: 159.881, 159.79
Resistance: 159.961, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 160.04 spike high would clear yesterday's rejection at the psych level
Break of the rising trendline and ema20 near 159.88 puts the asian low at 159.79 back in focus
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, and MoF intervention risk near 160.00, can produce moves far beyond the 6-pip ATR
Higher lows in Asian session, retesting session high.
The NY-session spike high at 160.044 met a sharp rejection and a drop to 159.32, with MoF verbal pushback capping the move. Price has since recovered nearly the whole drop and is pressing the Asian session high at 159.957 off a higher-low trendline from the 159.79 Asian low, holding above the rising ema20 at 159.875. RSI(14) is at 63.4 and ATR is at 6.2 pips, so it is firm but not stretched.
Support: 159.875, 159.79
Resistance: 159.957, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.957 session high puts the 160.044 spike high and the 160.00 intervention line back in play
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the ema20 at 159.875 shifts focus back to the 159.79 asian low
Break below the 159.79 asian low negates the Asian higher-low sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines near 160.00 could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Grinding higher on rising EMAs, just under 160.00 · RSI 58 · price 159.935
Higher lows since the NY spike rejection, pressing the Asian high.
The NY-hours spike to the 160.04 spike high was rejected hard to the 159.32 spike low as MoF warnings capped the 160 line. Since then price has rebuilt along a higher-low line and is pressing the Asian high at 159.95 late in the Asia session, holding above a rising ema20 with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR at 6.3 pips.
Support: 159.867, 159.79, 159.32
Resistance: 159.95, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 160 line brings the 160.04 spike high into play, where intervention risk is highest
A break of the 159.79 Asian low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 159.32 spike low
An M15 close back below the ema20 at 159.87 stalls the grind inside the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC or any MoF rate-check headline could materially shift this read
Higher lows since late-NY spike low; Asia session pressing its range high.
The late-NY spike through the 160.00 psych line to a 160.044 spike high was rejected hard to 159.319. Price has since rebuilt with rising lows into the Asia session, while Katayama's escalated FX warnings keep 160.00 two-way. It now presses the Asia high at 159.949, above the ema20 (159.863) and ema50 (159.827), with RSI(14) at 60.5, ATR at 6.4 pips and the asia low at 159.79 as the session floor.
Support: 159.863, 159.827, 159.79
Resistance: 159.949, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.949 asia high puts the 160.00 psych line and 160.044 spike high back in play
Renewed MoF rhetoric or reported rate checks near 160.00 could repeat the sharp rejection seen in late NY hours
A break below the 159.79 asia low takes out the rising lows line and the ema50 cushion
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst that could materially shift this read
Higher lows since spike low, capped at asian high.
After the 16:30 UTC rejection from the 160.044 spike high to 159.319, price has rebuilt most of the drop along a rising trendline of higher lows and now sits well into the recovery fib, holding above the ema20 and ema50. Asia session is pressing the 159.942 asian high in a tight 15-pip box above the 159.79 asian low, with ATR(14) compressed at 6.6 pips and RSI(14) at a neutral 58.9 as MoF warnings keep the 160 cap in focus.
Support: 159.857, 159.79
Resistance: 159.942, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.942 asian high puts the 160 cap and 160.044 spike high back in play
Break below the 159.79 asian low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence from the spike
Further MoF/Katayama rhetoric or rate-check headlines near 160.00 could trigger a sharp yen spike like the 16:30 UTC rejection
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 159.32 spike low, capped by the asian high.
The 16:30 UTC spike to the 160.04 spike high was rejected hard to the 159.32 spike low during NY hours. Since then price has rebuilt on rising lows, with Williams' hawkish remarks helping USD in Asia. Price holds above the ema20 at 159.851 inside a 159.79 asian low to 159.94 asian high range, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.7 and ATR(14) at 6.8 pips.
Support: 159.851, 159.79, 159.319
Resistance: 159.942, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 159.79 breaks the rising lows trendline and the recovery structure
A close above the asian high at 159.94 puts the 160.04 spike high and 160.00 back in focus; MoF intervention warnings make that zone prone to sharp rejection
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The 16:30 UTC spike through psych 160 to 160.044 reversed to 159.319 in one bar, a move that fits the MoF 'too rapid' intervention warnings. Price has since rebuilt most of that drop, and early Asia is holding a 15-pip range. The asia high at 159.94 rejected twice, matching the prior-day 07:15 UTC high, and the asian low sits at 159.79. Price is pinned at ema20 with RSI(14) flat near 51, ema50 at 159.816 just below, and ATR(14) compressed to about 7 pips.
Support: 159.816, 159.79, 159.533
Resistance: 159.942, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.94 asia high puts psych 160 back in play, where the prior spike reversed
Failure to hold the asian low at 159.79 and ema50 exposes the 159.70 spike recovery 38.2% and the london low at 159.533
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) and the Fed's Bowman and Daly later could materially shift this read
Any escalation in MoF rhetoric near 160.00 raises the odds of another spike-and-reversal
01:31 UTC
Recovering after 160.00 rejection, intraday range · RSI 56 · price 159.871
Higher lows since NY spike low, capped inside Asian range.
NY's spike through psych 160 to a 160.044 spike high reversed hard to 159.32 amid MoF intervention warnings. Price has since retraced about 76% of that drop on a rising trendline of higher lows. Asia is holding a 159.79–159.94 range above the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 56 and ATR(14) edging up to 7.1 pips.
Support: 159.847, 159.814, 159.79
Resistance: 159.942, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.942 Asian high opens a retest of psych 160 and the 160.044 spike high, where intervention risk sits
Break below the 159.79 Asian low and the rising trendline undercuts the post-spike recovery
Loss of the ema20 at 159.847 and ema50 at 159.814 would flip the intraday read to range-bottom testing
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, given MoF sensitivity near 160.00
The NY-session spike through the 160.00 psych level to 160.04 was rejected straight to 159.32, with MoF intervention warnings capping the push, and price has since recovered into the 159.80s. Asia is holding a 159.79–159.92 range, with the asia high capping three times and price above a flattening ema20 and ema50. ATR has compressed to 6.9 pips from 8.9.
Support: 159.844, 159.812, 159.79
Resistance: 159.917, 159.982, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.917 asia high exposes the 159.98 prior high and the 160.00 psych level, where intervention risk sits
Failure to hold the ema20/ema50 band and a break of the 159.79 asia low ends the range read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Fresh MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could trigger another spike-and-reversal
01:01 UTC
Recovery from spike low, now ranging · RSI 54 · price 159.855
Higher lows off 159.32; tight Asian range below 160.00.
NY's spike through 160.00 psych was rejected hard to 159.32 amid MoF intervention warnings. Price has since retraced roughly three-quarters of the drop on higher lows, with the recovery fib top at the 159.917 asian high. Asia is boxed between that high and the 159.79 asian low, holding just above ema20, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.4 and ATR(14) compressed to 6.7 pips.
Support: 159.79, 159.767
Resistance: 159.917, 159.982, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.917 asian high puts the 159.982 prior high and 160.00 psych back in play, where the last spike was rejected
Failure to hold the 159.79 asian low and the 159.767 swing low breaks the higher-low recovery
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Tight Asia session range 159.79–159.917 above the 159.319 spike low; higher-low recovery flattening.
The NY-hours spike to 160.044 was rejected hard to 159.319 as MoF intervention warnings capped the move, and the recovery fib shows price reclaiming most of that drop toward the 159.917 session high. Asia session is now coiling between the ema20 (159.838) and ema50 (159.807) above the 159.79 Asia low. RSI is neutral at 48.4 and ATR has compressed from 9.6 to 6.4 pips.
Support: 159.807, 159.79, 159.767
Resistance: 159.838, 159.917, 160.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 159.917 session high puts the 160.00 psych level and the prior rejection zone back in play
Break of the 159.79 Asia low and the 159.767 swing low (near the 23.6% recovery fib) would end the higher-low recovery
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read, with ATR compression leaving room for expansion
Any MoF/Mimura escalation near 160.00 psych could repeat the spike-and-reversal
Tight Asia range 159.77–159.92 below the 160.00 rejection.
Yesterday's NY spike through 160.00 psych to a 160.044 spike high was rejected hard to 159.32 on MoF 'too rapid' warnings. The recovery has stalled into a 159.77–159.92 Asia band, with the asian high at 159.917 capping the first push. ATR(14) has compressed to 6.2 pips, RSI(14) is neutral at 48, and price sits just below the ema20 while holding the ema50 at 159.806.
Support: 159.806, 159.767, 159.572
Resistance: 159.917, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.917 asian high puts 160.00 psych and the 160.044 spike high back in play.
Failure to hold the 159.767 rollover low opens the recovery fib 38.2% near 159.69 and the 159.572 ny low.
Fresh MoF/Mimura rhetoric near 160.00, then US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
00:16 UTC
Range-bound after 160.00 rejection · RSI 50 · price 159.842
Tight early-Asia consolidation above rising lows.
USDJPY poked through 160.00 to 160.04 during NY hours and reversed to the 159.32 spike low in a single bar as MoF intervention risk capped the topside. Price then rebuilt through rising lows from the 159.52 pullback low. Early Asia is consolidating in a 159.77–159.92 band, between the EMA20 above and the EMA50 below, with ATR(14) compressed to 6.3 pips and RSI(14) flat at 49.8.
Support: 159.77, 159.52, 159.32
Resistance: 159.92, 159.98, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.92 session high exposes the 159.98 pre-spike high and the 160 psych line
Failure to hold the 159.77 range low breaks the rising lows and opens 159.52 pullback low
Another rejection at 160.00 or escalating MoF rhetoric could revisit the 159.32 spike low
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rising lows since NY reversal, capped near 159.90.
NY hours produced a false break of 160.00 psych to a 160.044 spike high, then a sharp rejection to 159.319 as MoF intervention warnings capped the topside. The drop has since been fully retraced on a chain of rising lows, and early Asia is pressing the 159.90 recovery high with price above ema20 (159.842) and ema50 (159.805). RSI(14) sits at 57.7, and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.9 pips from 10.8 as the range tightens.
Support: 159.842, 159.805, 159.767
Resistance: 159.90, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.90 recovery high puts 160.00 psych and the 160.044 spike high back in play
Close below ema20 at 159.842 and ema50 at 159.805 stalls the post-spike recovery
Break of the rising lows line and the 159.767 rollover low turns the structure into a range
Any fresh MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could trigger another outsized spike
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read