159.32–160.19 range since Wednesday, lower highs off 160.00.
The week's impulse came in two NY-session legs: the hot US CPI on Tuesday lifted price off 158.10, and Wednesday's follow-through carried it to 159.89. Since then H1 has ranged 159.32–160.19. The round number at 160.00 drew rejections on Thursday's NY spike, at the Friday week high of 160.188 and again around the soft PPI, with each high lower than the one before amid MoF intervention warnings. Price now sits below EMA(20) at 159.84 and just above EMA(50) at 159.70, and RSI(14) has slipped to 44 from the 55–62 band it held earlier on Friday.
Support: 159.70, 159.518, 159.319
Resistance: 159.836, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema50 at 159.70 and the Fri low at 159.52 would break the higher-low sequence and expose the Thu low at 159.32, near the 38.2% retracement of the week
Recovery above ema20 at 159.84 and the lower-highs line would reopen tests of the 160.00 round number and the 160.19 week high
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF rate-check or intervention headlines near 160.00 carry gap risk against the range
Range 159.32–160.19 since Thursday after a two-leg rally.
The week's advance came in two NY-session legs: Tuesday's hot CPI lifted the pair off 158.20, and Wednesday's NY session extended it to 159.94 on Fed-hike repricing. Since Thursday the 160.00 round number has repeatedly rejected price, at 160.04 into Thursday's NY session, the 160.19 week high in Friday's London session and 160.06 around the soft PPI, as MoF warnings capped gains. Price has slipped below EMA(20) at 159.84 but is still holding EMA(50) at 159.70, with RSI(14) easing from 62 to 44. The 159.52 swing low sits above Thursday's 159.32 low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week's rally.
Support: 159.70, 159.518, 159.319
Resistance: 159.836, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 159.52 swing low exposes Thursday's low at 159.32 and the 38.2% fib
Acceptance above the 160.19 week high breaks the range and the lower-highs line
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 159.84 would restore the pullback-and-hold pattern
Fed's Jefferson in ~95 min and Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC could shift this read
MoF intervention risk while price sits near the 160.00 round number
Range 159.32–160.19 after Tuesday/Wednesday impulse; lower highs on Friday.
The hot US CPI print on Tuesday's NY session drove the leg up from 158.12, and the London session extended it through 159.80 on Wednesday. Since then the pair has held a 159.32–160.19 range, with three rejections above 160.00 (Thursday NY, Friday Asia, Friday London) forming lower highs as Tokyo intervention warnings capped gains. After the soft PPI, Friday's NY dip to the 159.52 swing low left price below the EMA(20) at 159.85 and still above the EMA(50) at 159.70, with RSI(14) at 48.1 off the high-50s.
Support: 159.70, 159.52, 159.32
Resistance: 159.849, 160.188, 160.40
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 159.52 swing low and the 159.32 Thu low (near the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse) breaks the range floor
Reclaim of ema20 at 159.85 and a close above the 160.19 week high breaks the Friday lower-highs line
160.40 intervention zone: MoF/rate-check headlines could produce a sharp, gap-style yen rally
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC could shift the read into the weekly open
Post-impulse range 159.32–160.19 capped at 160 handle.
The week's dominant move came in NY hours on Tuesday and Wednesday, a roughly 230-pip leg from 157.86 to the 159.90s after the hot US CPI and the hawkish Fed repricing. Since Thursday the pair has rotated in a 159.32–160.19 range. Tokyo's intervention warnings produced a rejection each time it pushed through the 160.00 round number, including Friday's week high at 160.19, and the softer PPI headline left it capped. A late-NY dip to the 159.52 range floor has price below the flattening EMA(20) at 159.855 but still above the EMA(50) at 159.696, with RSI(14) at 46.7 after peaks faded in the low 60s.
Support: 159.696, 159.52, 159.32
Resistance: 159.855, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 160.19 week high breaks the range top and puts the 160.40/160.70 area in view, with MoF intervention risk rising there
Failure to hold the 159.52 range floor and the EMA(50) exposes the Thursday low at 159.32, which sits near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI rally
Reclaiming the EMA(20) at 159.855 returns price to the upper half of the range
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC tonight, then Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC and Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Escalation in Japanese official rhetoric or reports of rate checks near the 160 handle could trigger a sharp range break lower
Post-rally range 159.32–160.19, lower highs into Friday.
Tuesday's hot CPI print in the NY session and a second NY-hours leg on Wednesday carried USDJPY from 157.87 to the 160 area, roughly the 160.19 week high. Since then H1 has flattened into a 159.32–160.19 range, with every push through the 160 cap rejected as Tokyo's intervention warnings escalated, leaving lower highs at 160.19 and 160.06. Late NY Friday the pair slipped below EMA(20) at 159.86 to a 159.52 Friday low after the in-line PPI, and RSI(14) sits at 42.9, the lowest of the last 20 bars, while price tests EMA(50) at 159.69.
Support: 159.693, 159.518, 159.319
Resistance: 159.863, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
H1 closes below EMA(50) at 159.69 and the 159.52 Friday low would expose the 159.32 Thursday low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the CPI rally
A break of the Thursday low at 159.32 would turn the range into a deeper retracement of the CPI rally
Recovery above EMA(20) at 159.86 and the lower-highs line would put the 160 cap and the 160.19 week high back in play
Japan intervention or official language around the 160 cap is the main source of sharp moves
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-impulse consolidation 159.30–160.20 with higher lows and lower highs.
The week's impulse from Monday's 157.67 low came in two NY-session legs, Tuesday on the hot US CPI and Wednesday on Fed-hike repricing, and has since stalled into a consolidation under the 160.00 round number. Thursday's NY sweep to the 159.32 Thursday low was bought back, as was the dip after today's slightly soft PPI. Today's NY low at 159.72 holds a higher-lows line while the 160.19 week high caps a run of lower highs. Price sits just above a flattening EMA(20) at 159.88 with RSI(14) cycling 49–62 and ATR easing, a coiling read amid MoF intervention warnings.
Support: 159.88, 159.72, 159.32
Resistance: 160.00, 160.19, 160.40
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 160.19 week high resumes the uptrend and puts the 160.40 zone in play
Failure to hold today's NY low at 159.72, with EMA(50) at 159.69 just beneath, breaks the higher-lows line
A move back below the 159.32 Thursday low would negate the consolidation read
Japan MoF intervention or rate-check headlines near 160.00 could trigger a sharp reversal
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, then Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; Thu-Fri consolidation capped at 160.00 psych.
The week's gains came in two NY-session legs, first on Tuesday's hot CPI print from 158.18 toward 158.84, then Wednesday's push through 159.50 on Fed-hike repricing. Since Thursday price has consolidated between the 159.32 Thu low and the 160.19 week high, with every move above the 160.00 psych level rejected amid MoF intervention rhetoric. The soft PPI dip held at the 159.72 PPI low, on the higher-lows line, and price is back above a flattening EMA(20) at 159.875 with RSI(14) cycling 49-62, well short of overbought.
Support: 159.875, 159.72, 159.32
Resistance: 160.00, 160.19, 160.40
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 160.19 week high breaks the consolidation and opens the path to next res at 160.40
Close below the 159.72 PPI low breaks the higher-lows line, with EMA(50) at 159.683 just beneath
Loss of the 159.32 Thu low would mark a lower low and end the week's uptrend structure
Any MoF intervention or rate check near 160.00 could produce a sharp move through the supports
Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Daly (now) and Jefferson (Sat 00:00 UTC) add headline risk into the close
Tight range 159.32–160.19 after CPI-driven impulse, higher lows since Thursday.
The week's dominant move came in two NY-session legs. The hot US CPI on Tuesday and Wednesday's follow-through lifted the pair from 157.67 to 159.89, and it has held well above the 38.2% retracement of that CPI impulse since. Price has since compressed under the 160.00 round number: the Thursday NY spike to the 159.32 Thu low was bought on intervention-warning headlines, and Friday's push to the 160.19 week high at London open was rejected. The soft PPI headline knocked price to a 159.72 NY low, but higher lows are intact. Price sits right on EMA(20), above EMA(50), with RSI(14) back at 52 after cycling 49–62 and ATR compressing.
Support: 159.72, 159.67, 159.32
Resistance: 160.00, 160.19
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 160.19 week high breaks the range top, with 160.40/160.70 next on the digest's map
Failure to hold the 159.72 ny low and ema50 at 159.67 breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 159.32 thu low
Repeated rejection at the 160.00 round number keeps the consolidation read in place
Fed's Daly in ~1h and Japan Q3 GDP Sunday 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF yen-buying would invalidate the range structure abruptly
Tue–Wed impulse followed by a compressing range under 160 with rising lows.
The week's advance came in two NY-session legs after Tuesday's hot CPI, lifting the pair from 157.87 to the 160.19 week high. Since Wednesday H1 has compressed below psych 160: upper wicks on Thursday, in the late Asia session Friday and again around the slightly soft PPI show supply there amid Katayama's intervention warnings, while lows have stepped higher from the Thursday low near the 38.2% fib. Price now sits just under EMA(20) and above EMA(50), with RSI(14) easing to 49 from 61.5, mid-range rather than stretched.
Support: 159.754, 159.664, 159.319
Resistance: 160.188
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; a 50bp tilt puts the 160.19 week high back in play
H1 close above the 160.19 week high breaks the compression range to the upside
Failure to hold the 159.75 post-PPI low and the rising-lows line exposes ema50 at 159.66, then the Thu low at 159.32 / 38.2% fib
Any MoF action or rate-check headline near psych 160 would override the range structure
Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC is event risk into Monday's open
Higher lows from Thursday's flush, lower highs since Friday's London open. A pennant coiling just above EMA(20).
The week's advance from Monday's 157.67 low came in two NY-session legs, Tuesday's hot US CPI print and Wednesday's push to 159.89, as Fed-hike repricing lifted the dollar. Since then, the 160.00 psych level has produced a rejection on three attempts. Those were Thursday's NY spike to 160.04, Friday's London-open week high at 160.19 and the pre-PPI probe to 160.06, while lows have stepped up from the 159.32 thu low. The soft PPI headline knocked price to 159.78 before it closed back just above the rising ema20, with RSI(14) cycling 50–62 and ATR compressed near 16 pips.
Support: 159.658, 159.319
Resistance: 160.00, 160.188, 160.40
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 160.19 week high breaks the pennant top and opens the 160.40 april high zone
H1 close below the 159.78 pennant support line and the ema20 would end the higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the ema50 near 159.66 exposes the 159.32 thu low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; MoF intervention rhetoric near 160.00 remains a sharp downside tail
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling around 160.00 · RSI 62 · price 160.032
Higher lows inside a 159.32–160.19 consolidation after a two-leg rally.
The week's advance from Monday's 157.67 low came in two NY-open legs, first on Tuesday's hot US CPI and then on Wednesday, before flattening into a consolidation capped near 160.00 since Wednesday evening. Spikes through the round number met rejection on Thursday's NY session and again in early London today at the 160.188 week high. Each low since has been higher, with dips finding the rising EMA(20) at 159.87, while RSI(14) cycles 50–62 and ATR compresses toward 15 pips ahead of PPI. Japanese intervention warnings are flagged as the cap on follow-through, and that intervention risk rises into 160.40.
Support: 160.00, 159.869, 159.655
Resistance: 160.188, 160.40
What it said to watch
US PPI in under 30 minutes, then Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 160.188 week high exposes 160.40, where intervention risk is flagged
Failure to hold the round number and the ema20 at 159.87 returns price to the consolidation middle
A break below the 159.655 higher low undercuts the higher-lows trendline and opens Thursday's 159.32 spike low
Any MoF rate-check or intervention headline overrides the structure entirely
Stair-step higher lows; tight 159.60-160.20 consolidation under the round number.
The week's advance from Monday's 157.67 low came in two NY-open impulses, the hot US CPI on Tuesday and Wednesday's yield-driven leg into 159.90. Since then price has compressed beneath the 160.00 round number: Thursday's NY spike to 160.04 and Friday's pre-London push to the 160.19 week high were both rejected as Tokyo's intervention warnings escalated, yet each dip left a higher low (159.32 spike low, then 159.66). Price holds above a rising ema20 (159.854) and ema50 (159.632), RSI(14) is cycling 50-62 and ATR is compressing toward 15 pips ahead of PPI.
Support: 159.854, 159.632, 159.319
Resistance: 160.00, 160.188, 160.40
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (88 min) could materially shift this read; a hot core print is the digest's path to 160.40
H1 close above the 160.188 week high breaks the consolidation and opens 160.40 res
H1 close below the ema50 at 159.632 breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 159.319 spike low
Any MoF action or sharper Katayama language at 160.00 risks an outsized JPY move; Japan GDP Sunday follows
Higher lows inside a 159.32–160.19 consolidation after the CPI-driven impulse.
The rally from Monday's 157.67 low came in two NY-session legs: Tuesday's hot US CPI and Wednesday's push on Fed hike repricing. It has since stalled under the psych 160 handle. Pushes above 160.00 were rejected in Thursday's NY session (160.04) and again in today's Asia session at the 160.19 week high, with RSI(14) peaking lower at 62 versus 65. That points to a mild bearish divergence as Tokyo's intervention warnings cap the topside. Price holds just above the ema20 at 159.84, and today's low at 159.66 sits above Thursday's 159.32 low, keeping the higher-low sequence intact while ATR compresses to 16 pips.
Support: 159.843, 159.655, 159.319
Resistance: 160.00, 160.188, 160.40
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 160.19 week high opens the path to 160.40 res
Failure to hold today's low at 159.66 and the ema20 breaks the higher-low trendline
Break below Thursday's low at 159.32 ends the consolidation and exposes the 50% fib near 158.93
Japan MoF rate-check or intervention headlines near 160.00 could trigger a sharp reversal
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 160.00 · RSI 54 · price 159.865
Consolidation 159.48–160.00 after two-leg advance; higher lows.
USD/JPY rallied in two NY-open legs, first after Tuesday's hot US CPI and again on Wednesday. It has since compressed into a 159.48–160.00 consolidation, holding above EMA(20) at 159.836 and EMA(50) at 159.607. Pushes through the 160.00 psych level failed during Thursday's NY session and again in today's late Asia session, which printed the week high at 160.188. RSI(14) peaked lower at 62.4 against 64.7 on Thursday, a mild bearish divergence, as Tokyo's intervention warnings cap the topside. Thursday's NY flush found demand at 159.319, on the 38.2% fib of the week's advance, and ATR(14) has eased to 16.4 pips from 21 midweek.
Support: 159.836, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print would put the 160.00 psych level and the 160.188 week high back in play
An H1 close above 160.188 week high breaks the consolidation, though MoF intervention risk makes any extension prone to sharp reversals
A loss of ema20 and then the 159.477 range low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 38.2% fib at 159.319
Escalation in official Japanese FX language or a rate check would override the range structure
The week rally has run from Monday's 157.67 low, with Tuesday's hot US CPI print and Wednesday's NY session driving the two impulse legs toward 160.00. Since then the move has stalled. Thursday's NY spike through psych 160.00 reversed to a Thursday low at 159.32, and the London open probe to the 160.19 week high was rejected as Tokyo's intervention warnings capped the line. Price holds above the EMA(20) at 159.83 and the EMA(50) at 159.60, while RSI(14) at 56.6 is cycling 50–64 rather than stretched.
Support: 159.833, 159.597, 159.319
Resistance: 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 160.19 week high back in play
An H1 close above the 160.19 week high would break the double rejection at psych 160.00
Failure to hold the ema20 and ema50 at 159.83/159.60 exposes the Thursday low at 159.32 and the rising support line
Escalating MoF/Takaichi intervention rhetoric near 160.00 could trigger a sharp reversal of the week rally
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 160.00 · RSI 54 · price 159.88
Higher highs from 157.67, now compressing in a 159.48–160.19 band below the psych 160 level.
The week's gains came in two NY-session legs: Tuesday's hot US CPI lifted the pair through 158.50, and Wednesday's NY push carried it through 159.00 to near 159.90. Since then it has compressed under psych 160. Thursday's NY spike to 160.04 and the late-Asia probe to a week high of 160.19 were both rejected as MoF warnings escalated to US coordination language. Price holds just above the ema20 at 159.83 with RSI(14) at 53.7, and Friday's peak RSI of 62.4 sat below Thursday's 64.7 despite a higher close, a mild bearish divergence.
Support: 159.825, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts psych 160 back in play
H1 close above the 160.19 week high breaks the cap and raises intervention-headline risk
Failure to hold the 159.48 swing low exposes Thursday's 159.32 spike low and the 38.2% of the CPI impulse near 159.22
Any MoF rate check or joint US-Japan statement could reverse the uptrend structure abruptly
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 160.00 · RSI 50 · price 159.748
Higher lows since Monday; two rejections above 160.00 psych.
USDJPY has gained about 250 pips from Monday's 157.67 low in two NY-session legs, Tuesday's hot US CPI push and Wednesday's break of the 159.00 range, leaving a clean sequence of higher lows. Thursday's NY session and this morning's Asia session both traded above 160.00 psych and were rejected. The latest wick to a 160.19 week high closed back at 159.78, below EMA(20) at 159.82 and above EMA(50) at 159.57, as Tokyo's escalating intervention warnings cap the move. RSI(14) has slipped from 62 to 50 and ATR(14) expanded to 17.3 pips on the rejection bar.
Support: 159.573, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 159.823, 160.00, 160.188
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 159.82 ema20 and then 160.19 week high would negate the double rejection at 160.00 psych
Loss of the 159.57 ema50 and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 159.48 range low, then the 159.32 thu low near the 38.2% fib
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (NY session) could materially shift this read; a hot print raises odds of another 160.00 test alongside MoF intervention risk
Confirmed MoF yen buying or a rate check would break the higher-lows structure
Higher lows since Monday, coiling just under the week high after Thursday's rejection.
USD/JPY has gained about 240 pips off Monday's 157.67 low. Tuesday's hot US CPI in the NY session and a second NY-hours leg on Wednesday drove the week impulse, while Asia and London mostly consolidated. Thursday's NY spike to the 160.04 week high was rejected to a 159.32 spike low amid MoF warnings, but price has rebuilt above the ema20 at 159.83 and is pressing psych 160 again in the Asian session, with RSI(14) at 62.4 and ATR compressed to 14.5 pips.
Support: 159.828, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 160.04 week high would break out of the sub-psych 160 consolidation
An hourly close back below the ema20 at 159.83 would break this week's pattern of pullbacks holding the average
Failure to hold the 159.48 asia low, near the 23.6% retracement of the week impulse, would open a retest of the 159.32 spike low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with core YoY forecast at 5%, could materially shift this read
Any escalation in MoF intervention language near 160.00 could reverse the structure abruptly
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating under 160.00 · RSI 60 · price 159.915
Higher lows since CPI breakout, tight coil below the week high.
USD/JPY left Monday's 157.67–158.25 range on Tuesday's hot US CPI and pushed through 159.00 into Wednesday's NY open, a roughly 240-pip impulse built on a sequence of higher lows. Thursday's NY-hours spike to the 160.04 week high was rejected to a 159.32 spike low as MoF warnings capped the 160.00 line. Price has since rebuilt above a rising EMA(20) at 159.81 and is pressing the 159.96 Asian high, with RSI(14) holding 55–60 and ATR(14) contracting to 14.4 pips from 21.
Support: 159.813, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 159.961, 160.044
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could break the coil in either direction; a hot core print puts the 160.04 week high back in focus
H1 close above the 160.04 week high extends the uptrend into intervention territory, where MoF action is an unscheduled risk
Loss of the EMA(20) and Thursday's Asia low at 159.48 would break the higher-lows sequence
Close below the 159.32 spike low exposes the 38.2% retracement of the CPI impulse near 159.14
Stepped impulse off Monday's low, now compressing under the 160.04 week high.
After a 157.67–158.25 range from Monday's open, the hot US CPI on Tuesday drove USD/JPY higher during NY hours. A second NY-session leg on Wednesday carried price to 159.94, and Thursday's NY spike printed the 160.04 week high before an immediate rejection to the 159.32 spike low as MoF warnings capped the 160 line. Price has since rebuilt above a rising EMA(20) at 159.80 inside a tight Asian range topped at the 159.96 asian high, with RSI(14) holding 57–60 and ATR compressing from 21 to 15.1 pips.
Support: 159.803, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 159.961, 160.044
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 160.04 week high would mark the first acceptance beyond the 160 line, where intervention risk is highest
Failure to hold the ema20 at 159.80 exposes the 159.48 swing low and the 159.32 spike low
A break of the rising trendline from Tuesday's CPI low, near 159.58, would end the stepped impulse structure
The 38.2% retrace of the week's impulse sits near 159.14 if the spike low gives way
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under 160.00 · RSI 60 · price 159.934
Higher lows since Tuesday's CPI breakout, ranging 159.48–160.04 since Wednesday.
USD/JPY is up about 240 pips from Monday's 157.67 low. The stronger-than-forecast US CPI broke the pre-data range during Tuesday's NY session, and Wednesday's NY hours extended the move through 159.00. Thursday's NY spike to the 160.04 week high was rejected sharply to a 159.32 spike low, almost exactly the 38.2% retracement of the CPI impulse, with MoF verbal warnings capping the 160.00 line. Price has since rebuilt above the rising ema20 at 159.79 into the Asia session and is pressing the 159.94 thu high again, with RSI(14) holding in the 55–60 band and ATR easing back to 15.5 pips after the spike.
Support: 159.794, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 159.944, 160.044
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 160.04 week high would clear Thursday's rejection, though intervention risk is concentrated around 160.00
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, followed by Bowman and Daly
A close back below the ema20 at 159.79 would return price to the 159.48 thu low area of the range
Failure to hold the 159.32 spike low breaks the higher-lows line and the 38.2% of the CPI impulse
The CPI impulse ran from 157.87 to the 159.94 range top, driven by the NY sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since then price has held a 159.48–159.94 range low-to-top band above both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Thursday's NY-hours spike through 160.00 psych to 160.04 reversed to a 159.32 spike low within the same bar, a false break with MoF 'too rapid' warnings in the background. Price is back near the range top in the Asia session, with RSI(14) holding 54–60 and ATR(14) easing from 21 to 16 pips.
Support: 159.782, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below EMA(20) at 159.78 shifts focus to the 159.48 range low
Sustained H1 closes above the 160.00 psych and the 160.04 spike high would end the consolidation read
Loss of the 159.32 spike low breaks the post-CPI structure and exposes the CPI impulse 38.2% retracement near 159.21
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman (15:50) and Daly (17:00), could materially shift this read
Japan intervention rhetoric near 160.00 psych remains a two-way risk to the range
Post-impulse range 159.48–159.94 after a false break of 160.00.
The week's move came in NY hours: Tuesday's hot US CPI lifted the pair off 158.12, and Wednesday's NY open extended the impulse through 159.20 to 159.89. Since then H1 has held a 159.48 range low to 159.94 range top band. Thursday's NY spike high at 160.04 reversed straight to a 159.32 spike low as MoF intervention warnings capped the 160.00 test. Price is back above a rising EMA(20) at 159.771, with RSI(14) in the high 50s and ATR easing to 16.3 pips after the spike.
Support: 159.771, 159.48, 159.319
Resistance: 159.94, 160.044
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 160.04 spike high would break the range top and invalidate the false-break read at 160.00
Loss of ema20 at 159.771 and then the range low at 159.48 (23.6% fib of the week impulse) exposes the 159.32 spike low and the 38.2% fib near 159.14
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF/Mimura rhetoric near 160.00 raises the risk of a sharp break of the range low
Post-breakout consolidation 159.48–159.94 after a false break of 160.00.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print broke USD/JPY out of Monday's 157.67–158.37 range, and Wednesday's London-NY transition extended the CPI impulse through 159.00 to the 159.94 range top. Since then the pair has consolidated between the 159.48 asia low and 159.94, with Thursday's NY spike to the 160.04 week high reversing to a 159.32 spike low amid MoF intervention warnings, a false break of the 160.00 psych line. Price has since recovered above ema20 at 159.76, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-50s to 60s and ATR easing to 16.5 pips from the 21-pip spike reading.
Support: 159.762, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 159.944, 160.044
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 160.04 week high would negate the false-break read; MoF rhetoric around 160.00 remains a sharp-reversal risk
Failure to hold the 159.48 asia low and the 159.32 spike low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the 38.2% of the CPI impulse near 159.21
Pullbacks holding ema20 at 159.76 keep the higher-low sequence inside the range intact
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read