Lower highs since 67.53; 60.27-62.07 range broken lower.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 67.53 peak, and the near two-week range between the 60.27 range floor and the 62.07 range high gave way this week. The post-NFP rally failed below 62.02. Hawkish FOMC Minutes and firm yields drove a new swing low at 58.978. Price now sits below the ema20 near 60.50 and the EMA50, with ATR(14) around 660 pips, a moderate regime rather than a compression.
Support: 58.978
Resistance: 60.27, 60.50, 62.07
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 60.27 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 58.978 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 62.07 range high, near the 38.2% retracement of the 67.53-58.98 decline, breaks the lower highs read
Waller, Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) and Musalem on Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 67.53; 60.25-62.07 range broken lower.
Silver has printed a clean lower-high sequence since the 67.53 peak (65.08, 62.07, 61.85). Yesterday it broke the week-long 60.25-62.07 range lower, tagging a new swing low at 58.98 before bouncing back above the 59.68 prior low. Price failed at the range top despite the soft NFP-driven dovish repricing, with firm yields, USD strength and oil-fed inflation worries keeping the metal heavy below both EMAs. ATR remains elevated near 690 pips, so this is expansion rather than compression.
Support: 59.68, 58.98
Resistance: 60.25, 61.85, 62.07
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
H4 close back above the 60.25 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 58.98 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 61.85 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure and puts the 62.07 range top and the 38.2% retracement of the decline near 62.25 in focus
13:07 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 41 · price 60.24
Lower highs from 67.53; 59.7–62.1 range since late September.
The lower-high sequence from 67.53 ran into the 59.68 swing low on Friday and has since become a 59.7–62.1 range. The range top has capped twice, and the latest lower high at 61.85 has pushed price back onto the 60.00 psych level. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and the rebound stalled short of the fib 38.2 at 62.68 as 5.3% 10Y yields and a firm USD outweighed last week's soft payrolls. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 670 pips from 1,000+ during the late-September slide.
Support: 60.00, 59.676
Resistance: 61.853, 62.07, 62.676
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 59.676 swing low resumes the downtrend sequence and breaks the range floor
Close above the 62.07 range top invalidates the range read and brings the fib 38.2 at 62.68 into view
Failure to clear the 61.85 lower high keeps the descending range-top structure intact
FOMC Minutes today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Holding the 60.00 psych level with ATR compressing keeps the range intact into Thursday's jobless claims
09:07 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 42 · price 60.48
Lower highs from 68.31; sideways 59.68–62.07 range for ~9 sessions.
Silver has printed a sequence of lower highs from 68.31 through the swing high at 67.53 to 65.08, and the late-September slide has since stalled into a range between the 60.00 range low and the 62.05 range high. The brief dip to the 59.68 swing low reversed straight back above 60, and Monday's soft-payrolls bounce stalled under the range high. The bounce also stayed below the 62.40 breakdown area and the 23.6% retracement of the 67.53–59.68 fib swing, with yields near 5.31% capping it. Price now sits below both the EMA20 near 60.95 and the EMA50, with the EMA stack still pointing down, while ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 650 pips from well above 1,000 during the sell-off, consistent with a coiling range.
Support: 60.00, 59.68
Resistance: 60.95, 62.05, 62.40
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean with 10Y yields toward 5.35% puts the 60.00 range low under pressure
H4 close below the 59.68 swing low confirms a lower-low and a range break out of the consolidation
H4 close back above the ema20 near 60.95 returns price to mid-range
Close above the 62.05 range high and the 62.40 breakdown level would breach the lower-high trendline and invalidate the range-in-downtrend read
Lower highs from 67.53 and 65.08 into a 59.68–62.07 range.
Silver has printed lower highs at 67.53 and 65.08, then slid into a 59.68–62.07 range that has held for about eight sessions. EMA20 is below EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 720 pips from well above 1,000 earlier in the window. The bounce on the soft NFP and earnings miss stalled at the recent high near 61.85, below the range top, as 10Y yields hit 5.34%. Price is now pressing on a minor higher-low line drawn from the 59.68 swing low.
Support: 60.27, 59.68
Resistance: 61.85, 62.07, 62.38
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 62.07 range top and the 50% fib at 62.38 would end the lower-high sequence and break the range read
Repeated failure at the 61.85 recent high keeps the range intact below the 38.2% retracement area
Loss of the higher-low line and the 60.27 range floor exposes the 59.68 swing low; a close below it confirms downtrend resumption
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
01:06 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a range · RSI 54 · price 61.298
Lower highs 68.31→65.08, now 59.68–62.07 range.
Lower highs at 68.31, 67.53 and 65.08 define the multi-week downtrend. Since the 59.68 swing low, silver has settled into a 59.68–62.07 consolidation, with a higher low at 60.27 and highs flat near the 62.07 range high, as the soft September payrolls and easing yields lifted it off two-month lows. Price is back above EMA20 but still under EMA50 and below the 50% fib of the 65.08–59.68 leg at 62.38, while ATR(14) near 720 pips is contracting inside the range.
Support: 60.267, 59.676
Resistance: 62.07, 62.377, 63.059
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 62.07 range high breaks the consolidation and brings the 50% fib at 62.38 into play
A reclaim of the 63.06 prior low would challenge the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 60.27 higher low reopens the 59.68 swing low and the $60 handle
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD