Post-impulse consolidation 51.18–53.45 with lower highs.
Wednesday's impulse from 48.95 to the 53.45 week high ran from the Asia session into London open as the midterm result weakened the USD. Price has since retraced into a 51.18–52.99 consolidation, with lower highs on each test and the swing low holding the 50% fib near 51.20. Silver absorbed Friday's hot NFP with a 51.36–52.35 whipsaw and closed near 51.93. Monday's open gapped down to the 51.45 weekly open before recovering to sit just under ema20, with RSI(14) near 45 and the friday high at 52.21 capping.
Support: 51.45, 51.18, 50.67
Resistance: 51.93, 52.21, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 52.21 friday high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 53.45 week high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 51.18 swing low / 50% fib exposes the 61.8% fib at 50.67
Holding above the 51.45 weekly open keeps the Monday gap largely filled
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin Mon, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 53.45 week high; 51.18–52.35 range holding the 50% fib.
Wednesday's Asia-session impulse off the 48.95 impulse low came as the midterm sweep knocked the USD lower. It ran to the 53.45 week high early Thursday, and price has since retraced in lower highs, with Friday's dip finding the 50% fib at 51.18. The hot NFP produced a two-way spike between the nfp low at 51.36 and the nfp high at 52.35, rejected at the top, yet silver closed the week near 51.96, pinned between EMA(20) just below and the ema50 near 52.10 with RSI(14) flat around 52.
Support: 51.36, 51.18, 48.95
Resistance: 52.10, 52.35, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 52.35 nfp high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 53.45 week high
Failure to hold the 51.18 50% fib exposes the 61.8% retracement near 50.67
Sustained trade back above the ema50 near 52.10 would mark the first break of Friday's capped range
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, preceded by Fed speakers Mon–Tue, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 53.453 vs higher lows off 51.178.
Wednesday's impulse ran from 48.946 to the 53.453 week high during London-into-NY hours as the post-midterm USD drop hit. Lower highs since Thursday's Asia session have retraced it to the 50% fib at the 51.178 Friday low. Friday's hot NFP whipsawed price between the 51.358 NFP low and the 52.354 Friday high without breaking either, and the week closed flat on EMA(20) near 51.95 with EMA(50) at 51.88 just below and RSI(14) at 48. The H1 is now coiling between the lower-highs line from Thursday's NY high at 52.986 and Friday's higher lows.
Support: 51.88, 51.358, 51.178
Resistance: 52.354, 52.986, 53.453
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 52.354 Friday high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 52.986 Thursday NY high, then the 53.453 week high
Failure to hold the 51.358 NFP low and the higher-lows line exposes the 51.178 Friday low and 50% fib; a break there leaves more than half of Wednesday's impulse retraced
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(50) at 51.88 would tilt the compression lower
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, preceded by Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday and Waller on Tuesday, could materially shift this read
19:27 UTC
Rebound stalled, lower highs since week high · RSI 53 · price 51.959
Lower highs below 53.45, compressing 51.18–52.35.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's Asia session, when the midterm-driven USD drop lifted silver from 48.95 to a 53.45 week high early Thursday. Rejection there was followed by a 52.99 lower high in Thursday's NY session and a 52.35 nfp high on Friday, while the hot payrolls dip stopped at the 51.36 nfp low and the 51.18 friday low held the 50% retracement of the impulse. Price closed the week at 51.96, just above EMA(20) and below EMA(50) near 52.12, with RSI(14) flat around 53.
Support: 51.36, 51.18, 50.67
Resistance: 52.35, 52.99, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 52.35 nfp high would break the lower-high sequence, with the 52.99 lower high and the 53.45 week high above
Failure to hold the 51.36 nfp low and the 51.18 friday low would expose the 61.8% fib near 50.67
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (headline MoM f/c 0.3%, core MoM f/c 0.2%), preceded by Fed speakers Monday, could materially shift this read