XAG/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 9 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAG/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:04 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 68 · price 53.422
Higher lows under a flat 53.45–53.53 cap.
Since Thursday's Asia-session spike to 53.45, silver has held a range top near that level, while lows have stepped higher from the 51.18 Friday low to Monday's 52.06 pullback along a rising support line. A late NY push took price to a marginal new week high at 53.525 as oil and the USD slid on Iran ceasefire hopes. Hourly closes are still parked just under the 53.45 prior high, with price above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 68, short of overbought.
Support: 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.525, 55.00
What it said to watch
Hourly closes above the 53.525 week high would turn the range top into a breakout and put the 55.00 round number in view
A drop back under 53.45 with follow-through would mark the push as a false break at the range top
A break of the rising support line and the 52.06 monday low would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 51.18 friday low, near the 50% fib of Wednesday's rally
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:06 UTC
Recovering within range, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 53.422
Range 51.18–53.53 since Thursday; higher lows off Monday's open.
Silver gapped lower at Monday's open, then rallied through the Asia session as the USD softened on Iran-deal hopes that pulled oil and yields lower. London faded the move to 52.06, the london low. Since then the H1 chart has printed higher lows and held the EMA(20) near 52.80. A late NY push printed a new week high at 53.525 but closed back under Thursday's 53.453 prior high, a third test of the range top. RSI(14) near 64 is firm but has not reached an extreme. Friday's NFP dip found demand at 51.18, close to the 50% retracement of Wednesday's rally.
Support: 52.80, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.453, 53.525
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 53.525 week high and 53.453 prior high would break the range top in place since Thursday
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, preceded by Fed's Waller at 09:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
A close below the ema20 and the higher-lows trendline puts the 52.06 london low back in focus
Loss of the 51.18 friday low breaks the range floor and the 50% of the Wednesday rally fib
21:05 UTC
Uptrend from Wednesday low, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 53.31
Higher lows (51.18, 52.06) under a flat 53.45 cap, marginal probe above.
Silver extended Wednesday's post-midterm impulse off 48.95 before stalling at the 53.45 range top, which capped Thursday's Asia high and Monday's Asia high. Friday's NFP-driven dip held 51.18, the friday low, near the 50% retracement of that impulse. Monday's swing low at 52.06 then printed a higher low. A softer USD and lower oil lifted price to a 53.525 week high in late NY hours, but the bar closed back below 53.45. Price holds above EMA(20), now near 52.85, with RSI(14) at 62 and not stretched.
Support: 52.85, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.45, 53.525, 55.00
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 53.525 week high turns the range-top probe into a breakout, with the 55.00 round number the next reference
Repeated closes back under 53.45 leave the range top intact and raise the risk of a false break
A break of the higher-lows line and 52.06 swing low undercuts the higher-low sequence and puts the 51.18 friday low back in view
Fed's Waller at 09:00 GMT and US CPI at 13:30 GMT Tuesday could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Uptrend off Wednesday low, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 53.405
Higher lows inside a 51.18–53.53 range since Thursday.
The midterm-driven impulse ran from 48.946 in Wednesday's Asia session to the 53.453 Thursday high. Since then price has held a 51.18–53.53 range. Friday's NFP dip held 51.18, near the 50% level of the impulse fib, and Monday's 52.06 low extended the higher lows. A weaker USD on Iran-ceasefire hopes and lower oil lifted silver from the 51.45 weekly open. The late-NY push has tagged a new 53.525 week high, the third test of the range top, with RSI(14) near 64, below Thursday's reading.
Support: 52.85, 52.06, 51.45
Resistance: 53.453, 53.525
What it said to watch
H1 close and hold above the 53.525 week high breaks the range top; acceptance there shifts focus toward 55.00
Rejection back below the 53.453 Thu high and the ema20 (~52.85) keeps the range read intact with RSI divergence in play
Break of the 52.06 monday low ends the higher lows sequence and puts the 51.45 weekly open back in view
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 GMT) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 GMT) could materially shift this read in either direction
19:04 UTC
Range after impulse, upside capped · RSI 53 · price 52.762
51.18–53.45 range since Thursday; twin highs at top, higher low Monday.
Wednesday's election-driven impulse from 48.95 stalled at 53.45, and Monday's Asia session spike on lower oil and Iran-talks headlines printed twin highs at 53.44 before a fade into London to the 52.06 monday low. Since then price has held above ema20 (~52.60), with the NY high at 53.03 capping the recovery and RSI(14) sitting mid-range near 53. Friday's post-NFP dip found the range low at 51.18, the 50% fib of the week's rally, so the structure remains a defined range with a higher low inside it.
Support: 52.60, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.03, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 twin highs invalidates the double top read and breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 52.06 monday low erases Monday's higher low
Break below the 51.18 range low (50% fib) would confirm the double top
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (y/y f/c 3.9%, core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Waller remarks Tue 09:00 GMT ahead of CPI
18:05 UTC
Range after Wednesday's rally, momentum neutral · RSI 52 · price 52.62
Two rejections at 53.45 ceiling; lower high at 53.03 today, higher lows since Friday.
Silver gapped down to 51.45 at the week's open, then ran to 53.44 in the Asia session on lower oil and Iran de-escalation hopes. That stalled just shy of Thursday's 53.45 week high, a second rejection at that ceiling. The London open faded the move to 52.06, and NY hours printed a lower high at 53.03, leaving price pinned to the ema20 near 52.57 with RSI(14) back at a neutral ~52. Friday's NFP beat failed to break the 51.18 friday low, which sits at the 50% retracement of the week's rally from 48.95.
Support: 52.57, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.03, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high clears the double rejection; a close back above the 53.03 lower high is the first sign of that
Failure to hold the 52.06 london low exposes the 51.18 friday low and 50% retracement
Sustained H1 closes below the ema20 at 52.57 shift the read toward the lower half of the range
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (y/y f/c 3.9%) and Waller at 09:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher low at 52.06, compressing in a 52.45–53.03 range under the 53.45 prior high.
Silver ran from the 51.45 weekly open to 53.44 in Asia on Monday, on lower oil and a softer USD, then stalled just under last Thursday's 53.45 prior high. The London pullback held a 52.06 swing low, a higher low over Friday's 51.18, which marked the 50% retracement of the 48.95–53.45 rally. Since then price has compressed in a 52.45 range low to 53.03 range top band, holding above EMA(20) near 52.58 with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 52.45, 52.06, 51.45
Resistance: 53.03, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.03 range top puts the 53.45 prior high back in play; acceptance above it ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 52.45 range low exposes the 52.06 swing low and the higher-lows line
Break below the 52.06 swing low voids the higher-low structure, with the 51.45 weekly open next below
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), plus Fed's Barkin today 17:15 UTC and Waller Tue 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
51.18–53.45 range since Wednesday, twin cap at week high.
Silver has held a 51.18–53.45 range since Wednesday's Asia-session rip off 48.95. Friday's NFP-driven dip stalled near the 50% retracement of that Wednesday rally. Monday's Asia push on a softer USD and lower oil was rejected at 53.44, a second stall at the week high, before the London open pullback found a higher low at 52.06 and NY hours reclaimed EMA(20) at 52.57, with RSI(14) at 56 sitting mid-range rather than signalling a fresh impulse.
Support: 52.57, 52.06, 51.45
Resistance: 53.27, 53.45
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 53.45 week high breaks the twin cap and the range top
Failure to hold the 52.06 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and turns the twin cap into a double top, exposing the 51.45 weekly open
53.27 lower high from Monday's Asia session is the first cap on any retest of the week high
Sustained trade back below EMA(20) at 52.57 returns price to the middle of the range
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Barkin today 17:15 GMT and Waller Tue 09:00 GMT come first
15:04 UTC
Recovery from Friday low, capped under week high · RSI 53 · price 52.59
Higher low at 52.06 beneath equal highs at 53.45; mid-range near ema20.
Monday's Asia session lifted silver from the 51.45 weekly open to 53.44, where it was rejected just under Thursday's 53.45 week high, forming equal highs. Lower oil and a softer dollar on Iran peace hopes offset Friday's post-NFP USD bid. London trimmed the move to the 52.06 monday low, near the 61.8% fib of the Friday-low swing, and NY has rebuilt toward the 52.88 ny high, with price back on ema20 near 52.53 and RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 52.53, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 52.88, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the equal highs and the range cap
Loss of the 52.06 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 51.18 friday low
Sustained H1 closes back below ema20 at 52.53 would shift the read toward the lower half of the range
Goolsbee at 15:00 UTC today and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:05 UTC
Range after Wednesday impulse, higher lows · RSI 55 · price 52.805
51.18–53.45 range since Thursday; Monday higher low at 52.06 under a flat week high.
Silver has ranged 51.18–53.45 since Thursday's Asia high. Monday's Asia rally, on Iran-peace hopes and a softer USD, stalled at the week high for a second time and was rejected. The London-session pullback held a higher low at the 52.06 Monday low, above the Friday low that sits near the 50% of the week impulse fib, and price has rebuilt above EMA(20) at 52.5 with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 52.50, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 53.45 week high breaks the range top and the flat resistance line
Loss of the 52.06 Monday low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 51.18 Friday low
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Fed's Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) and Barkin (17:15) speak first
Repeated closes back below EMA(20) at 52.5 would shift the range back toward its lower half
13:05 UTC
Range-bound, recovering toward range top · RSI 55 · price 52.74
51.18–53.45 range since Thursday; Monday higher lows off the gap.
Silver gapped down at the weekly open of 51.45, below Friday's 51.93 close, then rallied about $2 through the Asia session to 53.44. Oil slid on Trump's Iran comments, but the rally met rejection just under last Thursday's 53.45 weekly high. London's pullback held at 52.06 (roughly 69% of the Monday impulse) and kept the Monday higher lows intact. Price has since reclaimed the EMA20 near 52.51 and is pressing the 52.86 session high, with RSI(14) back near 55 inside the 51.18–53.45 range.
Support: 52.51, 52.06, 51.45
Resistance: 52.86, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 52.06 london low breaks the Monday higher lows and exposes the 51.93 Friday close and 51.45 weekly open
H1 close above the 53.45 weekly high breaks the range top that produced rejection on Thursday and again Monday
Failure to clear the 52.86 session high with price slipping back under the EMA20 keeps the rejection from 53.44 as the dominant read
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 GMT), the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
12:04 UTC
Range after impulse, intraday recovery · RSI 57 · price 52.635
Range capped at 53.45 week high, floor at 51.18 friday low since Thursday.
Wednesday's Asia-session impulse from 48.95 stalled at the 53.45 week high on Thursday. Price has since ranged between that cap and the 51.18 Friday low, which sits near the 50% retracement of the impulse, and silver absorbed Friday's hot NFP inside that range. Monday's gap lower to 51.45 was bought hard in Asia, but a second test of 53.45 met rejection; the pullback held the 52.06 Monday low into London open and price is back above EMA(20) near 52.45 with RSI(14) around 57, just under the 52.86 intraday high.
Support: 52.45, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 52.86, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the range cap after two rejections
Loss of the 52.06 Monday low and the 52.00 pivot reopens the 51.18 Friday low / 50% fib
Holding above EMA(20) at 52.45 keeps the intraday recovery from Monday's low intact
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and Tuesday's US CPI at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Sideways after the mid-week impulse, momentum neutral · RSI 56 · price 52.547
51.18–53.45 range with higher lows since Friday.
Silver has rotated inside 51.18–53.45 since Wednesday's Asia-session surge off the 48.60 low. Friday's hot NFP was absorbed without breaking the 51.18 swing low, which sits above the 50% retracement of the week impulse. Monday's Asia rally stalled at 53.44, a near-twin of the week high, and the fade into the London open stopped at the 52.06 Monday low; price has since recovered back above EMA(20) near 52.44, with RSI(14) around 56.
Support: 52.44, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.00, 53.45
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 53.45 week high would break the range cap and negate the twin-high rejection
The 53.00 round number is the first test above EMA(20); it marks where the Monday fade accelerated
Failure to hold the 52.06 Monday low and the higher-lows line would expose the 51.18 swing low
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
51.18–53.45 range since Thursday; double cap at week high.
Silver gapped lower at Monday's open to 51.45, under Friday's 51.93 close, then filled the gap in the Asia session as oil fell on Trump playing down Iran strikes. It ran to 53.44, a cent shy of Thursday's 53.45 week high, and was rejected there. The pullback found a 52.06 Monday low into London open, well above the 51.18 Friday low, which sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week's impulse from 48.60. Price is now back above EMA(20) near 52.42, with RSI(14) around 57 and the 53.00 round number capping the bounce, as a firm USD after NFP keeps the range intact.
Support: 52.42, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.00, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the double cap and the range top
Failure to hold the 52.06 Monday low reopens the 51.18 Friday low, the range floor
Loss of EMA(20) at 52.42 would put the Monday rejection back in control of the tape
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, plus Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Range-bound, Monday rebound stalled at week high · RSI 54 · price 52.485
51.18–53.45 range since Thursday; double peak at the top, higher low at the base.
Monday's Asia session ran from the 51.45 week open to 53.44 as crude slipped on Trump downplaying Iran action. The move stalled at the 53.45 double peak from Thursday's Asia high and faded through London to a 52.06 pullback low, slightly beyond the 61.8% fib of the Monday impulse. Price is back at the ema20 near 52.40 and the 50% retrace, with RSI(14) neutral at 53. That keeps the range intact above Friday's 51.18 range low, which held through the NFP beat.
Support: 52.40, 52.06, 51.18
Resistance: 53.00, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 double peak breaks the range top and the double-top read
Failure to hold the 52.06 pullback low and ema20 exposes the 51.45 week open, then the 51.18 range low
Repeated stalls below the 53.00 round number would mark a lower high inside the range
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 GMT) and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
08:05 UTC
Sideways range, momentum fading off the highs · RSI 53 · price 52.182
51.18–53.45 range since Thursday; equal highs rejected, lows stepping higher.
Silver gapped down to 51.45 at the week open, then ran to 53.44 in the Asia session as lower oil eased hike fears. The move stalled a hair under Thursday's 53.45 week high and faded into the London open. Price is back on the 52.00 pivot, below EMA(20) near 52.34 and close to the 61.8% retrace of Monday's leg, with RSI(14) cooled to the low 50s; the 51.18 swing low marks the range floor, with higher lows printing into Monday.
Support: 52.00, 51.45, 51.18
Resistance: 52.34, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 52.00 pivot exposes the 51.45 week open and the 51.18 swing low
Recovery and hold above the ema20 at 52.34 puts the 53.45 week high back in play; acceptance above it breaks the range top
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 GMT) could shift hike pricing and the range read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the main catalyst for a range break in either direction
07:05 UTC
Range after impulse, upside momentum fading · RSI 56 · price 52.548
51.18–53.45 range, twin rejection at week high.
Silver has held a 51.18–53.45 range since Thursday after the Tuesday–Wednesday impulse off the 48.60 low. Friday's hot NFP was absorbed above the 50% retracement of that impulse. In Monday's Asia session, the oil slide on Iran de-escalation filled the weekend gap and lifted price to retest the 53.45 week high, but rejection there leaves a potential double top. Price has since slipped back to EMA(20) near 52.43, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~56, mid-range rather than stretched.
Support: 52.43, 51.93, 51.18
Resistance: 53.00, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the range top and voids the double-top read
53.00 round number capped price for four bars before the drop; a reclaim reopens the week high
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 52.43 exposes the 51.93 prior close and the 52.00 pivot
Loss of the 51.18 range low and the higher-lows line would confirm the double top
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:06 UTC
Recovery leg, pressing the week high · RSI 63 · price 52.931
51.18–53.45 range since Thursday; Monday rally retesting range top.
Silver has ranged between 51.18 and 53.45 since Thursday's week high. The pullback held near the 50% level of the 48.60→53.45 impulse fib, and Friday's NY session absorbed the NFP beat above 51.35. Monday's Asia session gapped lower, then lifted about 2,000 pips as oil slipped on Iran de-escalation, breaking the Thursday–Friday lower highs and retesting the week high at 53.44. Price holds above EMA(20) near 52.46 with RSI(14) around 63 and is stalling just under the 53.00 round number, while the 52.00 pivot and the 51.18 swing low mark the range floor.
Support: 52.46, 52.00, 51.18
Resistance: 53.00, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the range top and opens the path to 55.00
A second rejection at the week high on a lower RSI peak would leave a double top at 53.45
Loss of EMA(20) and the 52.00 pivot returns price to mid-range; a break of the 51.18 swing low gives up the 50% impulse fib
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 and Barkin 17:15 UTC, plus the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar Iran meeting, could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a resolution of the range
05:05 UTC
Uptrend from Tuesday's low, capped at week high · RSI 64 · price 53.063
Higher lows; 51.18–53.45 range since Thursday.
Silver has built higher lows since Tuesday's 48.60 low. The mid-week impulse to the 53.45 week high was retraced only into the 38.2–50% fib zone, with Friday's 51.18 swing low holding through the hot NFP print. Monday's Asia session gapped lower, then reversed to 53.44 as oil slipped on Iran de-escalation headlines, printing a rejection just shy of the week high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 52.42 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 52.42, 52.00, 51.18
Resistance: 53.45, 55.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the range top and brings the 55.00 round number into view
Failure at 53.45 followed by a loss of the 52.00 pivot would leave a double-top shape over the week
A break below the 51.18 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and the fib-zone hold
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 UTC) could move December hike pricing
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the key catalyst for a break of either range boundary
Higher low at 51.18, second test of the 53.45 week high.
Silver retraced just under half of this week's 48.60–53.45 impulse. The NFP-driven dip held at 51.18, inside the week impulse fib's 38.2–50% zone, before Friday's NY session settled into a tight range around the 52.00 pivot. Monday's Asia session gapped down to the 51.45 monday open, then broke out of Friday's range as oil slipped on Trump's Iran de-escalation, printing 53.44 for a rejection just under the 53.45 week high. Price now holds above a rising ema20 near 52.34 with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 52.34, 52.00, 51.45
Resistance: 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the double-test cap and opens the path to 55.00
Loss of the 52.00 pivot puts the 51.45 monday open and the higher-low trendline back in play
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 52.34 keep the Monday breakout structure intact
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m), could materially shift this read
A rebound in crude on Iran headlines would remove the driver behind Monday's rally
Wednesday's impulse from 48.95 came as the midterm result sank the USD, and it stalled at the 53.45 week high on Thursday. Friday's blowout NFP only pushed price to 51.36, and the Friday low at 51.18 held at the 50% retracement of that impulse, extending the sequence of higher lows. Monday opened with a gap below Friday's close at 51.93 to 51.45, but the Asia session reversed it straight back to 53.44, where an upper-wick rejection formed; price holds above EMA20 near 52.24 with RSI(14) at 64.
Support: 52.24, 51.93, 51.18
Resistance: 53.45, 55.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the cap and opens the path to the 55.00 round number
A second rejection at 53.45 followed by a close back below EMA20 at 52.24 shifts the read to a double-top range
A drop back through Friday's close at 51.93 and the higher-lows trendline puts the Friday low at 51.18 back in play
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday from 13:40 UTC, then US CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:06 UTC
Recovering, retesting week high · RSI 66 · price 53.224
51.18–53.45 range after Wednesday's impulse; Monday gap-reversal back to range top.
Wednesday's election-driven impulse off the 48.60 week low capped at the 53.45 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Thursday–Friday then rotated in a 51.18–53.45 range with lower highs into the hot NFP print, and the range low held above the 50% retracement of the week's impulse. Monday's Asia session gapped down to 51.45, then reversed through Friday's close and the lower-highs line as the USD softened on Iran-peace headlines, carrying price to a 53.35 session high just under the week high, with price above EMA(20) near 52.22 and RSI(14) at 66.
Support: 52.22, 52.00, 51.178
Resistance: 53.353, 53.453
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 53.45 week high breaks the range top; rejection there keeps the 51.18–53.45 range intact
Loss of the ema20 near 52.22 and the 52.00 pivot would unwind Monday's gap reversal
Break below the 51.18 range low exposes the 50% fib of the week's impulse near 51.03
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thu–Fri lower-high range broken higher in Monday Asia session.
Wednesday's post-election impulse from 48.95 to the 53.45 week high retraced to roughly its 50% level at the 51.18 swing low into Friday. Through that pullback, lower highs at 53.12 and then 52.35 capped price. The 52.35 cap was Friday's NY-session NFP spike, which faded as the USD rallied. Monday's Asia session reversed a gap-down open at 51.45 and pushed through the friday high to 52.89, with price back above EMA(20) (~52.07) and EMA(50) (~52.10) and RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 52.354, 52.00, 51.178
Resistance: 53.122, 53.453
What it said to watch
Hourly closes holding above the 52.35 friday high keep the break of the lower highs intact
A slip back below the 52.00 pivot returns price to the Thu–Fri range and refocuses the 51.18 swing low
53.12 lower high and 53.45 week high are areas to watch for rejection or break; a close above 53.45 clears the Wednesday impulse high
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC, and US CPI is due Tue 13:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 53.45; compressing in 51.18–52.35 range above fib 38.2.
The Asia-session impulse from Tuesday's 48.60 low to Thursday's 53.45 week high came as the midterm result weakened the USD. It has since retraced to the fib 38.2 zone, with a lower-highs sequence from 53.12 through the 52.35 nfp high. Friday's 51.18–52.35 range absorbed the hot payrolls beat without breaking the friday low. Monday's weekly open gapped about 470 pips below the friday close at 51.45, leaving price under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 51.45, 51.18
Resistance: 51.93, 52.35, 53.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 51.18 friday low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 50% retrace of the impulse near 51.03
H1 close above the 52.35 nfp high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 53.45 week high
Failure to fill the gap back to the 51.93 friday close keeps price pinned below EMA(20), with the 51.45 weekly open as first test
Fed speakers Mon from 13:40 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read