XAG/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAG/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:13 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into Friday close · RSI 26 · price 48.691
Lower highs Mon-Wed-Fri; YTD low 48.87 broken late Friday.
Lower highs at 53.70 Monday, 53.17 Wednesday and 50.77 Friday define the week. The hot CPI print sank Tuesday's NY session, and the Friday bounce was sold back through the 50.00 psych level after PPI, despite the softer headline. Price has slipped under the 48.87 ytd low to a 48.475 week low, with the falling ema20 at 49.535 capping each pullback since Thursday, and RSI(14) at 25.5 is oversold with ATR still elevated near 360 pips.
Support: 48.475, 48.00
Resistance: 48.87, 49.535, 50.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 48.87 ytd low would flag a false break of the breakdown
Failure to hold the 48.475 week low exposes the 48.00 round number
Recovery through the ema20 at 49.535 and the 50.00 psych level would test the lower-highs line near the 50.77 Friday high
Fed's Jefferson in ~46 min, then Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, Friday range broken lower.
Silver has printed lower highs all week (53.70 Monday, 53.17 Wednesday, 51.93 Thursday, 50.77 Friday), with the NY session driving each leg lower after Tuesday's hot CPI. Friday's softer PPI gave no relief. The 49.58–50.77 Asia/London range broke during NY hours and took price through the 48.87 ytd low to a 48.475 week low. RSI(14) at 25.5 is oversold, and price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 49.535 and EMA(50) at 50.295.
Support: 48.475, 48.00
Resistance: 48.87, 49.535, 50.00
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 48.87 ytd low would turn Friday's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 48.475 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 48.00 round number
Recovery through the ema20 at 49.535 and the lower highs trendline near 49.6 would be the first challenge to the downtrend; 50.00 psych sits above
Fib 38.2% of the Wednesday-to-Friday drop sits near 50.27; rallies have stalled before reaching it
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read via hike-size signals
21:49 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and extending · RSI 28 · price 48.732
Lower highs from Wednesday's 53.17 peak, now probing below the ytd low.
Silver has printed a sequence of lower highs since Wednesday's 53.17 counter-rally. Each leg lower came during NY hours: the hot CPI on Tuesday, Thursday's slide and Friday's post-PPI drop as Fed speakers and a 10y yield spike kept hike pricing firm. Price is now trading below the 48.87 ytd low with a 48.475 session low, holding under a falling EMA(20) at 49.624 and EMA(50) at 50.36. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.6 but has held in the 26–31 band while price edged lower, and the 38.2% retracement of the Wed high fib move sits near 50.27, just under the 50.00 psych area.
Support: 48.475, 48.00
Resistance: 48.87, 49.624, 50.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 48.87 ytd low would turn the break below it into a false break
Recovery above ema20 at 49.624, which now coincides with the lower-highs trendline, would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 48.475 session low leaves the 48.00 round number as the next reference
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, and Warsh on Mon 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via hike-size signals
Rebounds toward the 50.00 psych level run into the Wed high fib 38.2% near 50.27
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at the week low · RSI 28 · price 48.877
Lower highs all week; Friday's 49.58–50.77 range broke lower after PPI.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's 53.70 top. Each down-leg came in NY hours: Tuesday's hot CPI, Thursday's slide through 51.15 and Friday's post-PPI break of the 49.58–50.77 range, as yields and the USD stayed bid despite the soft headline PPI. Price now sits at the 48.87 ytd low after a 48.80 week low, below a falling EMA(20) at 49.70 and the EMA(50) at 50.42. RSI(14) at 27.7 is oversold, and the close below the 48.99 low came on a barely higher RSI. The 49.23 bounce high caps the first rebound, and the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday still frames the move.
Support: 48.87, 48.801, 48.00
Resistance: 49.228, 49.704, 50.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 48.80 week low extends the lower-low sequence, with 48.00 psych the next round marker
Recovery above the 49.23 bounce high and the ema20 at 49.70 would signal the PPI breakdown is stalling
Reclaim of the 50.00 round number back inside Friday's range, toward the 38.2% fib near 50.67, would negate the range break
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~4h) and Chair Warsh Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break above the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday's 53.17 high changes the structure
Silver has made a sequence of lower highs since Wednesday's failed bounce to 53.17. Each leg lower came in NY hours, from Tuesday's hot CPI to Friday's slide after PPI, as the Treasury rout outweighed a softer print. Friday's NY session broke the 49.58–50.77 Thursday-Friday base and set a week low at 48.909, with price now holding just above it, below a falling EMA(20) at 49.79 and the 50.00 psych level. RSI(14) dipped to 26.7 on the break and has since recovered to 30, while ATR expanded to 405 pips before easing to 377.9.
Support: 48.909
Resistance: 49.79, 50.00, 50.773
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 50.00 psych level and the lower-highs trendline would undercut the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 48.909 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above EMA(20) at 49.79 would be the first sign the Wednesday-to-Friday drop is retracing; the 38.2% sits near 50.54, below the 50.773 lower high
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows all week · RSI 31 · price 49.068
Stepped lower-high sequence; Friday NY range break to a new week low.
The decline from Monday's 53.70 week high has printed successive lower highs: Wednesday's 53.15 squeeze, then Friday's 50.773 Asia-session lower high. NY hours drove each leg down: Tuesday's hot CPI, Thursday's yield-led slide and Friday's post-PPI break. Friday's NY session broke the 49.6–50.3 range to a 48.909 week low despite the soft PPI, and price now sits just above the 49.00 round number, under a falling EMA(20) at 49.867 and the 50.00 psych level, with RSI(14) back to 31 from 26.7 and ATR expanded to ~392 pips.
Support: 49.00, 48.909
Resistance: 49.867, 50.00, 50.773
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 (49.867) and the lower-highs trendline near 49.80 would mark Friday's range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 49.00 round number and the 48.909 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming 50.00 psych and the 50.773 lower high would break the week's lower-high structure
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6h) and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with weekend gap risk
Daily lower highs since Monday; Friday range broken lower in NY.
Silver has printed lower highs every session since Monday's 53.701 week top. The heaviest legs of the week decline came in NY hours: the hot CPI on Tuesday, Thursday's slide, and Friday's post-PPI drop as the yield rout outweighed a softer headline print. Friday's 49.58–50.30 range gave way after the NY open, leaving a 48.909 week low below a falling EMA(20) at 49.943 and EMA(50) at 50.599, with RSI(14) oversold at 26.7 and ATR expanding to ~399 pips.
Support: 48.909, 48.62
Resistance: 49.582, 49.943, 50.773
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 49.582 range floor would turn Friday's range break into a false break
The ema20 at 49.943 sits just under the 50.00 psych level; pullbacks have stalled at it all day
Friday high at 50.773, near the 38.2% fib of the week decline and the lower highs trendline; a close above it ends the lower-high sequence
A break below the 48.909 week low exposes next support at 48.620
Fed's Daly (17:00 GMT) and Jefferson (00:00 GMT) could extend or unwind the NY move; Warsh on Monday 17:00 GMT is the larger risk
Lower highs and lower lows all week; Friday's 49.58–50.77 range broken lower.
Lower highs at 53.70 Monday, 53.17 Wednesday and 50.77 Friday define this week's downtrend. The dominant legs came in NY hours, after Tuesday's hot CPI and again on Thursday's slide. Today's NY session broke the 49.58 prior low and the $50.00 psych level as yields climbed despite a softer PPI, printing a 48.91 session low. RSI(14) at 27.2 is oversold, ATR has expanded to 405 pips, and both EMAs slope lower, with EMA(20) at 50.04 overhead after Friday's Asia bounce to 50.77 briefly reclaimed it and faded.
Support: 48.909, 48.62
Resistance: 49.582, 50.043, 50.773
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 49.58 prior low would turn today's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 48.91 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 48.62 next supp
Reclaiming the 50.04 ema20 and then the 50.77 lower high would break the descending trendline structure
Oversold RSI with no bullish divergence yet; a higher RSI low on a fresh price low would flag slowing momentum
Fed Daly in ~1h and Fed Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Sequence of lower highs from 53.70; fresh week low at 49.494 after PPI.
Silver has printed lower highs all week: 53.70 on Monday, 53.17 on Wednesday and 50.77 in Friday's Asia session. Tuesday's hot CPI drove the first break in NY hours, and Thursday's selling took price below the $51.15-$51.20 range floor as yields and the USD climbed. The soft PPI spike to 50.28 was sold into a new week low at 49.494, and price now sits below the falling EMA(20) at 50.148 and the psych 50.00 mark. RSI(14) in the mid-to-high 30s against roughly 30 at Thursday's low hints at mild bullish divergence, while ATR holds near 340-400 pips.
Support: 49.494, 49.00
Resistance: 50.00, 50.148, 50.773
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 50.00 psych and the ema20 at 50.148 would ease the lower-high sequence
A break of the lower highs trendline and the friday high at 50.773, near the 38.2% of the Wednesday-to-Friday leg (~50.90), would challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 49.494 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 49.00 round number
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) today, then Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Sequence of lower highs from Monday's 53.70 top; price basing just above the week low below both EMAs.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's 53.70 top. Tuesday's hot CPI broke the range floor near 51.12, and Wednesday's rebound stalled at 53.17. The slide resumed into Thursday as yields jumped, and Friday's bounce was rejected at the 50.77 lower high, where EMA(50) also sits near 50.77. The soft PPI spike into the NY open faded at the falling trendline and closed back under EMA(20) at 50.18. RSI(14) is holding a higher low near 36 against the fresh 49.58 week low, a bullish divergence versus Thursday's sub-30 reading.
Support: 49.582, 49.00
Resistance: 50.178, 50.773, 51.116
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50.773 lower high and EMA(50) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2% fib near 50.95 in play
Reclaim of the 51.116 range floor would neutralise the post-CPI breakdown
H1 close below the 49.582 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 49.00 psych level
Hold back under the ema20 at 50.178 keeps the falling trendline capping each bounce
Fed's Bowman (15:50 GMT) and Daly (17:00 GMT) could materially shift this read if a larger December hike is floated
Lower highs since Wednesday, chop around $50 above week low.
Silver has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 53.17 recovery peak, which followed Tuesday's hot-CPI drop. Thursday's NY session broke the 51.15-51.20 range floor as yields and the USD climbed. Friday's Asia spike stalled at 50.77, the fri high just under EMA(50) at 50.81, before a new week low at 49.58. RSI(14) held mid-30s on that low versus sub-30 on Thursday, a bullish divergence, while price stays below EMA(20) at 50.22 and ATR compresses around the $50 psych mark.
Support: 49.77, 49.582
Resistance: 50.223, 50.773, 51.18
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 GMT (27 min) could materially shift this read; hot core extends the slide, soft core risks a sharp bounce
H1 close below the 49.582 week low extends the lower-low sequence and breaks the Friday floor near 49.77
H1 close above the 50.773 fri high and EMA(50) breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 51.18 broken floor needed to neutralise the week's breakdown structure
Fed Bowman (15:50 GMT) and Daly (17:00 GMT) on 50bp December hike odds
Lower highs since Wednesday's 53.17 peak, basing 49.58–50.24.
Silver peaked at 53.70 late Monday. It sank on Tuesday's hot CPI, whipsawed back to 53.17 on Wednesday, then printed lower highs. Thursday's NY session broke the 51.15 range floor on hawkish Fed repricing and the US yield spike, reaching the 49.695 Thu low. The Asia-session bounce failed at the 50.773 Fri high, and a fresh week low printed at 49.582. Price is now coiling around the $50 psych mark below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) made a higher low (38 vs 27) on that new price low, a bullish divergence that has so far only produced sideways trade.
Support: 49.695, 49.582
Resistance: 50.252, 50.773, 51.15
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 GMT (~87 min) could materially shift this read; Bowman and Daly follow later in the session
H1 close above the ema20 at 50.252 and the lower-high trendline tests the downtrend read
Reclaiming the 50.773 Fri high breaks the lower-high sequence; 51.15 range floor is the next reference
Failure to hold the 49.695 Thu low and 49.582 week low confirms a new lower-low and voids the RSI divergence
Lower highs from 53.17 Wed peak, basing just under 50.00.
Silver has printed lower highs since Wednesday's rebound failed at 53.17. Tuesday's hot CPI and Thursday's yield-driven slide through the London and NY sessions did most of the damage. Friday's Asia pop to 50.77 drew a rejection back below the 50.00 psych level and the falling ema20 at 50.277, and late Asia then set a fresh week low at 49.58. Price is now holding just above the london low at 49.77. RSI(14) at 35.7 sits well above Thursday's sub-30 trough despite the lower low, a bullish divergence, while ATR has compressed from 425 to 349 pips.
Support: 49.77, 49.582
Resistance: 50.00, 50.277, 50.773
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 GMT (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Hourly close below the 49.582 week low extends the lower-low sequence and tests the bullish divergence
London low at 49.77 giving way puts the week low straight back in play
Sustained trade back above 50.00 psych and the ema20 at 50.277 would be the first crack in the lower highs
A close above the 50.773 fri high breaks the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday
Fed's Bowman (15:50 GMT) and Daly (17:00 GMT) on December hike size could extend any post-PPI move
Lower highs from 53.70; base forming around 49.6-50.0.
The week capped at 53.70 early Tuesday. The hot US CPI drove a near-4% NY-session drop, and Wednesday's rebound stalled at 53.17 before the 51.15 broken range support gave way on Thursday, leaving a sequence of lower highs with price below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). Friday's Asia session bounce to the 50.77 Asia high faded back under EMA(20), but the dip to a fresh week low at 49.58 came with RSI(14) at 36 versus 27 on Thursday's low, a bullish divergence. ATR is compressing from 425 to 352 pips as price coils around the 50.00 round number.
Support: 50.00, 49.695, 49.582
Resistance: 50.321, 50.773, 51.15
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read, with Bowman and Daly following
Hourly close above EMA(20) at 50.32 and the 50.77 Asia high breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 49.58 week low and Thursday's 49.70 low confirms a lower low and voids the divergence
A move back toward the 50.95 Wed high fib 38.2% and the 51.15 broken range would test the prior support from below
Lower highs from Wednesday's 53.17 failure; basing near 50.00 above the week low.
Silver has printed lower highs since Wednesday's rebound stalled at 53.17. The USD bond-rout bid broke the 51.15 range floor, and Thursday's NY session flush carried price to the Thu low at 49.695. Friday's Asian bounce to the 50.773 Asia high faded under the lower-high trendline. Price then set a new week low at 49.582 with RSI(14) at 36.3 against 27.4 on Thursday's low, a bullish divergence. Price sits below a declining EMA(20) at 50.347 and EMA(50) at 50.952. ATR(14) has eased from 425 to 363 pips as the selling slows.
Support: 49.695, 49.582, 49.00
Resistance: 50.347, 50.773, 51.15
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 GMT: the high-impact core print could materially shift this read, with Bowman (15:50) and Daly (17:00) after
H1 close above the 50.773 Asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and the lower-high sequence
EMA(20) at 50.347 has capped Friday's upticks; reclaiming it shifts price back into the decline's 23.6–38.2% fib zone
EMA(50) at 50.952 sits on the 38.2% fib; above that, the broken 51.15 range floor is the next test
Failure to hold the 49.582 week low negates the RSI divergence and exposes the 49.00 psych level
Lower highs since Wednesday, basing at 49.58–50.77.
Silver has printed lower highs since Wednesday's stall near 53.15. Tuesday's hot US CPI and Thursday's yield-driven selloff, which cut through Tuesday's low at 51.116 during London and into the NY open, dragged price back to the 50.00 psych handle, below a falling EMA(20) at 50.388 and EMA(50) at 50.993. Friday's Asia high at 50.773 faded, and the 05:00 GMT dip to a week low at 49.582 came with RSI(14) near 36 versus about 27 at Thursday's 49.695 low, a bullish divergence inside a 49.58–50.77 consolidation.
Support: 50.00, 49.695, 49.582
Resistance: 50.388, 50.773, 51.116
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; this week's hot inflation prints have extended the downtrend
H1 close above EMA(20) and the 50.773 Asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence
38.2% of the Wednesday-to-Friday leg (~50.95) sits beside EMA(50) at 50.993, the next cap on any rebound
Failure to hold the 49.582 week low and the 49.695 Thursday low voids the divergence and extends the downtrend toward 48.96
Reclaim of the 51.116 Tuesday low would turn the former trough back into support
Fed's Bowman (15:50 GMT) and Daly (17:00 GMT) on December hike size
Lower highs from 53.70; week low 49.58 under a falling EMA(20).
The week has run as a series of lower highs: Monday's 53.70 peak, Wednesday's 53.17 rebound high, then Thursday's NY-session slide through 51.15 to 49.70 as hawkish Fed repricing after Tuesday's hot CPI lifted the USD. Friday's Asia bounce stalled at the 50.77 Asia high, then faded to a fresh week low at 49.58, with price back below the EMA(20) at 50.43 and the EMA(50) at 51.03. RSI(14) printed a higher low near 36 against Thursday's sub-30 oversold reading, a bullish divergence as downside momentum eases inside the lower-high structure.
Support: 49.582, 49.00
Resistance: 50.428, 50.773, 51.033
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 GMT (~6.5h) could materially shift this read; Bowman and Daly speak later in the NY session
H1 close above the 50.77 Asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and tests the downtrend read toward the ema50 at 51.03
Repeated failure at the ema20 (50.43) keeps supply capping the downtrend
Break below the 49.58 week low voids the RSI divergence and exposes the 49.00 psych level
Lower highs and lower lows; latest low swept then reclaimed.
Each rally this week has stalled at a lower high: 53.70 in Tuesday's Asian session, 53.17 at Wednesday's rebound peak and 50.77 in Friday's Asian session. Thursday's London and NY legs broke the 51.15 prior trough as hot-CPI Fed hike bets lifted the USD and yields. Price sits below a flattening EMA(20) at 50.465 and a falling EMA(50) at 51.072, and the latest dip to a 49.582 swing low carried RSI(14) at 36.3 against 27.4 at Thursday's 49.695 low, a bullish divergence inside the week's decline.
Support: 49.582, 49.00
Resistance: 50.465, 50.773, 51.15
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 50.773 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 49.582 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 49.00 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), followed by Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
A recovery into the 51.15 prior trough, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week's decline, would test broken support from below
Sustained trade back above the ema20 at 50.465 would mark the first reclaim of the H1 EMA cycle since Thursday
Lower highs from 53.70; Asia bounce capped under ema20.
Silver has printed lower highs all week: 53.70 Tuesday, 53.17 Wednesday, 51.93 early Thursday and now 50.77. The big legs lower came in the NY session after Tuesday's hot CPI and again on Thursday's hawkish Fed repricing, which carried price to a 49.695 week low. Friday's Asia bounce stalled at the 50.773 Asia high, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the Wednesday–Thursday drop, and has slipped back under the falling EMA(20) at 50.512. RSI(14) has recovered to 40.5 after spending much of Thursday below 30, while EMA(50) at 51.115 sits on Tuesday's low, the broken weekly trough now overhead.
Support: 50.00, 49.695
Resistance: 50.512, 50.773, 51.116
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 GMT (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 50.773 Asia high breaks the lower-highs line and the rejection read
Failure to hold the 50.00 round number exposes the 49.695 week low
A recovery into 51.115–51.116 (ema50 / Tuesday's low) would test the broken trough from below
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through the week · RSI 44 · price 50.427
Lower highs at 53.70, 53.17, 51.93; base forming above week low.
Silver has printed lower highs all week at 53.70 Tuesday, 53.17 Wednesday and 51.93 Thursday. NY sessions drove both main legs lower: the first came on Tuesday's hot 0.4% CPI, the second on Thursday's break of the 51.12 trough as yields and USD firmed. The week low at 49.695 has held, with a shelf forming near 49.93. The Asia bounce stalled at the 50.77 Asian high and price sits back under the EMA(20) at 50.538, while RSI(14) has recovered to 44 from repeated sub-30 readings and ATR is easing from its Thursday peak.
Support: 49.93, 49.695, 49.00
Resistance: 50.538, 50.773, 51.15
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50.77 Asian high and ema20 opens a deeper retrace toward the 51.02 fib 38.2%
Ema50 at 51.15, aligned with the broken 51.12 trough, is the overhead reference on any rebound
Loss of the 49.93 shelf and the 49.695 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 49.00 psych level
US PPI at 13:30 GMT, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 53.70; shallow bounce off 49.695 week low.
Silver has printed lower highs since the early-Tuesday 53.70 peak. Tuesday's NY-session hot CPI print and Thursday's London-into-NY slide on hawkish Fed repricing took price through the 51.12-51.20 weekly trough to a 49.695 week low. Price has since based above the 50.00 round number, and the Asia session pop to the 50.773 asia high stalled near the 23.6% retracement of the 53.17–49.70 leg. The last close sat marginally below EMA(20) at 50.545 and well below a falling EMA(50) at 51.178, with RSI(14) recovering to 45 from sub-30 readings and ATR easing off its Thursday peak.
Support: 50.00, 49.695
Resistance: 50.773, 51.178, 51.933
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50.773 asia high and the lower highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Reclaim of the ema50 at 51.178, near the broken 51.12-51.20 weekly trough, needed to neutralise the downtrend read
A move back above the 51.933 lower high would negate the lower-highs structure
Loss of the 50.00 round number and a break of the 49.695 week low extends the lower-low sequence
US PPI at 13:30 GMT, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday; base at 49.70-50.30, Asia pop above ema20.
Silver has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 53.701 week high. Tuesday's hot CPI and the hawkish Fed repricing drove Thursday's London-NY slide through the 51.15-51.20 trough to a 49.695 week low. A 49.70-50.30 base held through late NY, and Friday's Asia session lifted price above ema20 at 50.549 and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) recovering from the 27-33 zone to 47.2 and ATR re-expanding. Price is still below ema50 at 51.205, which lines up with the broken trough.
Support: 50.549, 49.695
Resistance: 50.773, 51.205, 51.933
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below ema20 at 50.549 returns focus to the $50 psych handle and the 49.695 week low
An hourly close above the 50.773 asia high puts ema50 at 51.205 and the broken 51.15-51.20 trough in play as the first test of the downtrend
Acceptance above the 51.933 lower high, near the 61.8% of the Wed-Thu fib, would break the lower-highs sequence
US PPI at 13:30 GMT, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Tuesday's 53.70; tight base 49.70–50.31 after Thursday's break.
Silver opened the week at 51.45 and spiked to 53.70 early Tuesday. Hot US CPI in Tuesday's NY session cut it to 51.12, and Wednesday's rebound stalled at 53.17, a second lower high. Thursday's NY session broke the Tuesday low as hawkish Fed repricing lifted the USD, printing a week low of 49.695. Since then price has held a tight base between the psych 50.00 area and a 50.31 range top, below the falling EMA(20) at 50.54 and EMA(50) at 51.23. RSI(14) sits at 33 after a 27.4 trough, and ATR has eased from 425 to 336 pips as the range compresses. The fib of the 53.17–49.695 leg puts the 23.6% near the ema20.
Support: 50.00, 49.695
Resistance: 50.306, 50.542, 51.116
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 GMT Fri (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman and Daly following
Hourly close below the 49.695 week low confirms a fresh lower-low beneath the psych 50.00 handle
Close above the 50.31 range top and ema20 at 50.54 would turn the base into a retracement toward the broken tue low at 51.12
Another lower high under the 53.17 swing keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Lower highs since Monday; tight range below 50.31 after floor break.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 53.70 tests around Monday's close, and the descending line through them caps price. Thursday's London and NY sessions pushed through the 51.15 broken floor to a 49.695 week low on a firm USD and hawkish Fed talk after Tuesday's hot CPI. Price has since compressed between the 49.92 range low and the 50.31 range top, below a falling ema20 at 50.591 and ema50 at 51.276. RSI(14) has lifted to 33.2 from 27.4 and ATR has eased to 344 pips from 425, while the 38.2% fib of the 53.17–49.70 leg sits near 51.02, just under the broken floor.
Support: 49.92, 49.695, 49.00
Resistance: 50.306, 50.591, 51.15
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50.31 range top and the ema20 at 50.591 would break the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 49.695 week low exposes the 49.00 psych level
Recovery back above the 51.15 broken floor would neutralise Thursday's range break
US PPI Fri 13:30 GMT (core YoY f/c 5%, headline MoM f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read; Bowman and Daly speak later in the NY session