20:03 UTC
Downtrend since the January 2026 blow-off top · RSI 35 · price 48.875
Lower highs and lower lows from 121.63, now testing 48.60.
Silver has been in a downtrend since the late-January 2026 blow-off top at 121.63. The lower-highs line through 89.36 and 67.53 has capped every rally, and price is now roughly 60% off the peak, back at the 48.60 swing low inside the October 2025 breakout zone. Price sits below both EMAs, with the W1 EMA(50) at 61.59 rolling lower, so the macro trend filter is negative. The October–November leg came on hawkish Fed repricing, 10y yields near 5.13% and a firm USD, and Friday's softer PPI produced no bounce. RSI at 34.7 is weak but not yet oversold, and ATR has compressed from about 9.7 to 6.3, so ranges are narrowing into the low.
Support: 48.599, 45.533
Resistance: 50.00, 54.756, 61.586
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 48.60 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the oct-25 low at 45.53
- Failure to reclaim the 50.00 psych level keeps price pinned at the lows
- Weekly close back above the 54.76 broken low would be the first sign the decline is stalling
- EMA(50) at 61.59 and the lower-highs line near 59–60 frame the zone that would challenge the downtrend read
- Fed Chair Warsh (Mon 17:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read