21:05 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce · RSI 50 · price 69.919
Lower highs from Feb peak, bouncing off $61 base.
Multi-month downtrend off the late-Feb peak near $96 carved a YTD low at $61.02 in early June, before a ~14% recovery rally retraced the move back to $70 on the US-Iran peace framework, a softer USD and collapsing oil. Price is now stalling sub-$70 at the 100-day SMA, holding just above the $68.59 200-day SMA that marks the bull/bear line, with RSI back to neutral after basing out of oversold. Momentum has recovered but price remains below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the broader structure corrective.
Support: 68.59, 63.80, 61.02
Resistance: 70.50, 72.25
What it said to watch
- FOMC rate decision tomorrow 18:00 UTC with dot-plot is the defining catalyst for this read
- Daily close above 70.50 / 100-day SMA would extend the recovery toward the 20-day SMA at 72.25
- Loss of the 68.59 200-day SMA re-exposes 63.80 and the 61.02 YTD low