Lower high at 57.96 below 50% retrace; rebound trendline broken.
Tuesday's NY-session slide below 60 and Wednesday's hot CPI print drove the week's dominant leg, taking price to the 55.385 weekly low. The yield-driven rebound since Thursday stalled at the 57.96 rebound high, capped four times on Friday just under the 50% retrace of the 60.72–55.39 drop. NY hours then broke the rebound trendline and took price to the 56.88 Friday low. The Sunday open gapped modestly higher, but price sits just under the ema20/ema50 cluster near 57.36 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 56.88, 56.29, 55.385
Resistance: 57.36, 57.96, 58.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 57.96 rebound high and the 50% retrace at 58.05 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 56.88 Friday low exposes the 56.29 swing low and then the 55.385 weekly low
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 57.36 would confirm the rebound trendline break as a top to the bounce
Monday-open reaction in yields and USD to weekend Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
US housing data on Tue Oct 20 at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
Lower high at 57.96 under the 60.72 week high; rebound trendline broken.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove a NY-session breakdown from the 58.78 pre-CPI high to the 55.385 weekly low. The Thursday–Friday rebound, driven by falling yields rather than fresh demand, stalled at the 57.96 Friday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 60.72–55.39 drop. Friday's NY session rejected that high, broke the rebound trendline and pushed price back under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) easing to the high 40s as the week opens near 57.15.
Support: 56.88, 56.29, 55.385
Resistance: 57.30, 57.96, 58.78
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 57.30 ema20 and the broken rebound trendline would neutralise Friday's fade
Failure to hold the 56.88 Friday low exposes Thursday's 56.29 higher low; a break there points back toward the 55.385 weekly low
Clearance of the 57.96 Friday high opens the 50% retracement near 58.05 and the 58.78 pre-CPI high
Tue Oct 20 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits could shift the yield-driven read
Fri Oct 23 S&P Global PMIs could shift the yield-driven read
Weekend Middle East headlines could also shift the yield-driven read
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove the week's dominant leg during NY hours. Silver slid from the 58.46 pre-cpi shelf to the 55.39 weekly low, extending a decline that began from Tuesday's 60.72 high. The yield-led rebound from Thursday into Friday's Asia and London sessions stalled at the 57.96 rebound high, just shy of the 50% retracement at 58.05. The NY session fade has since broken the rebound trendline and pushed price back below EMA(20) near 57.32 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) rolling over to 42 and the Friday low at 56.88 the nearest shelf.
Support: 56.88, 56.29, 55.39
Resistance: 57.42, 57.96, 58.46
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 56.88 Friday low exposes the 23.6% fib at 56.64 and the 56.29 higher low
Failure to hold the 56.29 higher low reopens the 55.39 weekly low
Recovery above the 57.42 38.2% fib and EMA(20) puts the 57.96 rebound high back in play; clearing it opens the 50% fib and pre-cpi shelf at 58.05–58.46
Weekend Middle East headlines are a gap risk into Monday's open
Tue Oct 20 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits and Fri Oct 23 PMIs could materially shift this read via yields and USD