Lower highs since 67.53; flag-like rebound off 55.39 capped at 57.96.
Silver has printed lower highs along a falling trendline for three weeks. The hot US CPI flush took price from the 58.784 breakdown bar to a 55.385 cpi low. The rebound since then has unfolded as a rising flag that stalled four times at the 57.962 bounce high, just under the fib 50% of the 60.721 lower high to the cpi low move. Price now sits below EMA20 near 57.5 and is pressing the 57 pivot lows. ATR(14) has eased from the post-CPI spike, so compression is building while the swing low at 56.88 holds.
Support: 56.88, 55.385
Resistance: 57.962, 58.784, 60.721
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 57 pivot and the 56.88 swing low ends the flag and re-exposes the 55.385 cpi low
Close above the 57.962 bounce high and the fib 50% near 58.05 extends the retracement toward the 58.784 breakdown
Only a break of the 60.721 lower high and the falling lower highs trendline would undercut the downtrend structure
Fri S&P Global PMIs (Services f/c 57.9, Mfg f/c 55.6) could materially shift this read via Fed-hike pricing
Lower highs and lower lows since 67.53, inside a descending channel.
Silver has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 67.53 peak, and the hot US CPI/PPI prints drove a flush to the 55.385 cycle low. The rebound stalled three times near the 57.96 rebound high, just above the 38.2% retracement of the 61.44→55.39 leg. Price has slipped back under EMA20 (~57.54) and is consolidating between the 56.88 swing low and that cap, with ATR easing off the flush peak and the channel top near 59.75 well overhead.
Support: 56.88, 55.385
Resistance: 57.96, 58.41, 59.75
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 57.96 rebound high, and acceptance through the 50% fib at 58.41, would break the lower-high sequence and put the channel top near 59.75 in view
Failure to hold the 56.88 swing low reopens the 55.385 cycle low
Fri S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could revive Fed-hike pricing and materially shift this read
FOMC next week is a further event risk for the channel structure
Lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel; bounce capped below 57.96.
Silver has printed lower highs from 67.53 through 65.08, 62.07 and 61.44, holding a descending channel with the channel top now projecting near 60.00. The hot CPI/PPI flush took price to the 55.385 weekly low; the rebound has stalled four times at the 57.96 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the CPI flush fib. Price sits above EMA20 but below EMA50, with EMA20 still under EMA50, and ATR is contracting after the flush spike.
Support: 56.88, 55.385
Resistance: 57.96, 59.12, 60.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 57.96 bounce high opens the 61.8% fib at 59.12 and the channel top near 60.00
Failure to hold the 56.88 swing low reopens the 55.385 weekly low
Fri S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing
Lower highs since 62.02; post-CPI higher lows under 58.00.
The hot US CPI print broke the multi-week 60.00 floor and drove silver to the 55.385 cpi low. The recovery since has built higher lows into a flag-like bounce that is now capped twice at the 57.96 range cap, just under the fib 50% retracement at 58.05. Price sits on the 38.2% retracement near 57.42, back above EMA20 but below a falling EMA50. ATR has eased from the breakdown spike and the bounce looks corrective inside the broader lower-high sequence.
Support: 56.88, 55.385
Resistance: 57.96, 58.05, 60.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 57.96 range cap and fib 50% at 58.05 would undercut the flag read; the broken 60 level is the next major ceiling
A break below the 56.88 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 55.385 cpi low
Thu jobless claims and Fri S&P Global PMIs / UoM inflation expectations could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
Lower highs from 67.53; post-CPI low at 55.385, bounce capped near 57.95.
Lower-high structure intact since the 67.53 peak. The multi-week 58.5–62.0 range gave way after the hot September CPI print, and the flush took price to the 55.385 cpi low. The rebound has carried on softer yields and USD, but it is stalling at the 57.95 bounce high, which has capped four H4 attempts and sits at the 38.2% retracement of the 61.44–55.39 leg. Price has reclaimed EMA20 but remains below EMA50 with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 690 pips is still elevated from the breakdown.
Support: 56.88, 55.385
Resistance: 57.95, 58.41
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 57.95 bounce high exposes the fib 50 at 58.41, then the broken 60 handle as overhead supply
Failure to hold the 56.88 higher low would undercut the bounce structure and reopen the 55.385 cpi low
Lower-highs trendline from 62.02 sits near 60.8, above the broken 60 level, keeping the swing structure bearish while price holds below it
Fri Oct 23 S&P Global PMIs and UoM 5y inflation expectations could materially shift this read via Fed-hike repricing
Lower highs since 62.07; bounce capped below 58.40 prior shelf.
Silver has printed lower highs from 62.07 through 61.43 across the window. The hot US CPI flush broke the 58.40 prior shelf and printed a 55.385 weekly low before a yield-driven rebound. That relief leg stalled at the 57.96 bounce high, just above the 38.2% retracement of the 61.43–55.39 drop. Price is now sitting on a flat EMA(20), well below a falling EMA(50) and the $60 former support. ATR(14) is off its post-CPI expansion, and price is compressing between the 56.88 swing low and 57.96.
Support: 56.88, 55.385, 55.00
Resistance: 57.962, 58.40
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 57.96 bounce high puts the 58.40 prior shelf and the 50% fib in play
Failure to hold the 56.88 swing low reopens the 55.385 weekly low and the 55.00 psych handle
Reclaim of the $60 former support would neutralise the lower-highs structure
Thu jobless claims and Fri PMIs / UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing