Lower highs from 67.50; higher lows since the 55.39 low.
Silver's three-week slide from 67.50 extended to a 55.39 cycle low after last week's hot US CPI. Since then the rebound has printed higher lows, including 56.37, but price has been held in a 57.00–57.96 range, with a range floor at 57.00 and repeated failures at the range cap. Today's softer US housing data and lower yields drove a spike to 58.59, which was rejected near the 61.8% fib of the 60.72–55.39 leg and at the former 58.40–58.60 breakdown zone. EMA20 remains below EMA50 with price trading between them, and ATR has compressed from the crash-bar expansion.
Support: 57.00, 56.37, 55.385
Resistance: 57.96, 58.59, 60.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 58.59 breakdown high would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 60.00 channel top
A break below the 57.00 range floor would put the 56.37 higher low and the rebound trendline at risk
Loss of 56.37 would leave the 55.385 cycle low as the next support and resume the downtrend structure
Fri S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, then next week's FOMC, could decide which edge of the range breaks
Lower highs from 67.53; post-CPI range 56.40-58.00 with higher lows.
Silver has printed lower highs from 67.53 through 62.07 and 61.44, and last week's hot CPI drove the leg to the 55.385 swing low. Since then it has rebounded into a 56.40-58.00 range with higher lows as a softer USD and lower yields lifted it. The latest bar spiked to a 58.59 spike high above the 50% retracement but closed back under the 58 cap. Price is holding above EMA20 but remains below EMA50 near 58.2. ATR(14) at about 640 pips has contracted from the post-CPI expansion, which fits the consolidation read.
Support: 56.37, 55.385
Resistance: 58.00, 58.592, 59.124
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 58 cap and the 58.59 spike high opens the 61.8% fib at 59.12, then 60.00
Failure to hold the 57 pivot and the higher low at 56.37 breaks the rising support and exposes the 55.385 swing low
Lower-highs line from 62.07 still caps the larger downtrend; only a move through it would change the multi-week read
Thu jobless claims and Fri S&P Global PMIs plus UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs from 67.53; post-CPI bounce boxed 56.37-57.96.
Silver has printed lower highs all window, from 67.53 to 61.44, before the hot US CPI flush took it to a 55.385 cycle low. The bounce off that low retraced roughly 38.2% of the 61.44-55.39 fib leg and met three rejections at the 58 cap near 57.96. Price has since compressed into a 56.37-57.96 box, below a flattening EMA20 near 57.36 and the EMA50. Higher lows along the rising trendline from the cycle low are holding around the 57.00 pivot, and ATR(14) is contracting from the CPI-bar spike.
Support: 57.00, 56.37, 55.385
Resistance: 57.96, 58.40
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 58 cap at 57.96 would break the consolidation and expose the 58.40 breakdown area at the fib 50% level
Loss of the 57.00 pivot and the 56.37 swing low would break the rising trendline and reopen the 55.385 cycle low
Fri S&P Global PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) are the main risk to this compression
Thu Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could shift the yield and USD backdrop driving the rebound
Lower highs from 67.53; post-CPI rebound compressing in a 57.0–58.0 band.
Silver has printed lower highs all window from 67.53, and the hot US CPI print drove a breakdown to the 55.38 cpi low before softer yields lifted price back. The rebound stalled at the 57.96 rebound high, just above the 38.2% retracement, and has since compressed into a 57.0–58.0 band. Higher lows from the cpi low through the 56.37 swing low hold the bounce, with price hugging a flattening EMA20 and still below the EMA50. ATR(14) has eased from the CPI spike, consistent with compression.
Support: 57.00, 56.37, 55.38
Resistance: 57.96, 58.40, 59.35
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 57.96 rebound high opens the fib 50% at 58.40 and the 59.35 prior lows from the pre-CPI range
Failure at the 57.00 pivot and a break of the 56.37 swing low would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 55.38 cpi low
Fri S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields and USD
A break of the rising support line from the cpi low would mark the relief bounce as complete
Lower highs since 67.53; post-crash range 57.00-57.96.
Lower highs have been in place since the 67.53 peak. The hot US CPI print drove a break of the 58.50-61.40 shelf down to the 55.385 weekly low. The rebound has stalled at the 57.96 range top, between the 38.2% and fib 50% retracement of the 61.435-55.385 leg, and price has rotated around the 57.00 pivot for most of the past week, with the 56.37 swing low forming a higher low. Price sits just above EMA20 but below EMA50, with EMA20 still under EMA50, and ATR(14) has contracted from the crash-bar expansion, consistent with a compressing range.
Support: 57.00, 56.37, 55.385
Resistance: 57.96, 58.41, 60.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 57.96 range top opens the fib 50% at 58.41, with the 60.00 round number (former support) beyond
Failure to hold the 57.00 pivot exposes the 56.37 swing low, then the 55.385 weekly low
A break below 56.37 voids the higher-lows line drawn from the weekly low
Fri S&P Global PMIs (f/c 57.9 / 55.6) and UoM 1y inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) could materially shift this read via October Fed-hike odds
Lower highs and lower lows from 67.53; bear-flag rebound off the 55.39 low.
Lower-high and lower-low sequence intact from the 67.53 high. The hot US CPI print flushed silver through the 58.40 prior floor of the 58.4-62.0 range to a 55.39 cpi low. The rebound has capped twice at 57.96 and 57.84, the rebound cap sitting just above the 38.2% retracement of the 61.44-55.39 leg. Price has slipped back below the ema20 with EMA20 and EMA50 both overhead, while ATR(14) compresses inside a tight 56.8-58.0 flag after the CPI expansion.
Support: 56.29, 56.00
Resistance: 57.20, 57.96, 58.40
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 56.29 pullback low exposes the 56.00 round number and the 55.39 cpi low
H4 close above the 57.96 rebound cap and the 58.40 prior floor would negate the bear-flag read
Reclaim of the ema20 near 57.20 would keep the rebound alive
Fri S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could break the flag in either direction