21:07 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and accelerating · RSI 30 · price 53.923
Lower highs and lower lows since the 71.165 late-August high.
Two-month downtrend from the 71.165 high of Aug 28, with each weekly rally failing lower (68.31, 67.53, 62.02, 61.44, 58.59) under a falling trendline and below a declining EMA(50) on D1 since mid-September. Last week's 56.37–58.59 range broke Thursday on a 5.8% drop as oil-fed December hike bets and 5%+ yields weighed, slicing through the Oct low at 55.39 and the July prior low at 54.76 before Friday printed a yearly low at 53.016. RSI(14) is oversold near 29.5, and Friday's ~1.7 range was narrower than Thursday's ~3.5 drop.
Support: 53.016, 50.00
Resistance: 54.756, 58.592
What it said to watch
- Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC: December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
- A daily close below the 53.016 yearly low extends the lower-low chain toward the 50.00 round number
- A recovery back above the prior low at 54.76 and the oct low at 55.39 would turn Thursday's break into a false break
- The falling trendline from the Sep 22 high (~57.5 now), the 23.6% fib near 57.30 and the 58.59 weekly high form the cap; a daily close above them breaks the lower-high sequence