21:09 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near YTD low · RSI 28 · price 53.915
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-August 71.17 peak; July base low broken.
Two-month downtrend from the 71.17 late-August peak, with a clean lower-high/lower-low chain and price well below a falling EMA(50) near 60.36. Last week's rejection at the 58.59 lower high was followed by Thursday's ~5% drop on firmer yields, a firmer USD and oil-driven Fed hike fears. That move broke the Oct 14 low at 55.39 and the July low at 54.76, and Friday printed a YTD low at 53.02. RSI(14) near 28 is oversold on D1, and the 23.6% fib of the Aug–Oct decline sits at 57.30.
Support: 53.016, 50.00
Resistance: 58.592, 60.36
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 53.02 YTD low extends the lower-low chain toward the 50.00 round number
- Wed 18:00 UTC Fed decision: noncommittal December guidance could spark an oversold rebound toward the Oct 14 low at 55.39
- A daily close above the 58.59 lower high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence, with EMA(50) at 60.36 the next trend filter
- Tue Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) and WTI near its $101 five-week high are the pre-Fed drivers of yields and hike pricing