XAG/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 28 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAG/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:07 UTC
Downtrend, range floor broken · RSI 31 · price 60.826
Lower highs at 67.53 and 65.08, breakdown below the 62.30 range floor.
Silver broke through the 62.30 range floor, which had held three times since mid-September, and printed a swing low at 60.74 as US 10y yields near the 5.23% high and firmer Fed hike pricing weighed. Lower highs at 67.53 and 65.08 define the descending structure, with price below both EMAs and EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) near 930 pips points to expansion rather than compression, and the fib 38.2 of the 67.53–60.74 leg sits at 63.33, above the broken range floor.
Support: 60.737, 60.00
Resistance: 62.30, 63.331, 65.078
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 62.30 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 60.74 swing low exposes the 60.00 round number
A recovery through the fib 38.2 at 63.33 and the 65.08 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC and ADP Wed 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, range breakdown extending · RSI 32 · price 61.084
Lower highs since 68.31; 62.30 range floor broken to fresh lows.
Silver has exited the three-week 62.30–68.31 range to the downside. Rallies had been fading at successively lower highs, from 68.31 to 67.53 and then the 65.08 lower high. The break through the 62.30 range floor, which had held three times, came as 10y yields held near 19-year highs and October hike odds firmed, printing a fresh swing low at 60.74. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, RSI(14) near 32 is approaching oversold, and ATR(14) around 940 pips points to range expansion rather than compression.
Support: 60.737, 60.00
Resistance: 62.30, 63.331, 65.078
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 62.30 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 60.74 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 60.00 round number
Recovery through the fib 38.2 at 63.33 and the lower-highs trendline would challenge the downtrend read
Fed's Cook today at 17:15 UTC and Tuesday's JOLTS (f/c 7.23M) plus heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Any break above the 65.08 lower high negates the lower-high structure
Silver spent most of the window in a 62.30–68.30 range. It has now broken the range floor near 62.30 after a lower-high sequence from 67.53 to 65.08, driven by 10y yields at 19-year highs and heavy October Fed hike pricing. Price sits below both EMAs, with EMA20 under EMA50, and is holding just above the 60.94 swing low. RSI is oversold and ATR is expanding.
Support: 60.938, 60.00
Resistance: 62.30, 63.456, 65.078
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 62.30 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 60.94 swing low exposes the 60.00 round number
Recovery through the 63.46 fib 38.2 or the 65.08 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Cook today 17:15 UTC; JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) and the Fed-speaker cluster could shift this read via yields
09:06 UTC
Downtrend, extending after range break · RSI 28 · price 61.085
Lower highs from 67.53; 62.30 range floor broken.
The 62.30–68.30 range that contained most of the window gave way on Monday. The break followed a run of lower highs from 67.53 and 65.08, after a week of hawkish Fed repricing with the US 10y near 5.23%. Price sits at 61.09, below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50. RSI(14) is near 28 and oversold, and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 900 pips, so the move is trending rather than compressing. The old range floor at 62.30 is now the first resistance above, with the 38.2% fib of the 67.53–60.97 leg at 63.47.
Support: 60.965, 60.00
Resistance: 62.30, 63.47, 65.078
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 62.30 range floor would turn Monday's break into a false break.
Failure to hold the 60.97 swing low exposes the 60.00 round number.
A move through the lower highs trendline and the 65.08 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence.
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, then JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M), could materially shift this read.
Lower highs 68.31→67.53→65.08; three-week range floor at 62.30 broken on a closing basis.
Silver has carved a lower-high sequence from 68.31 through 67.53 to the 65.08 lower high, and the latest leg closed below the 62.30 range floor that held three times this month, printing a window low at 61.80. Hawkish Fed repricing, multi-year-high Treasury yields and a firm dollar drove last week's ~3.7% loss, with Friday's bounce failing beneath the 38.2% fib of the 67.53-61.80 leg near 63.99. EMA20 sits below EMA50 with price under both, RSI is near 31 and ATR(14) is running around 880 pips, an expanding rather than compressing regime.
Support: 61.80, 60.00
Resistance: 62.30, 63.06, 65.08
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 62.30 range floor would reframe the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 61.80 window low exposes 61.01 and then the 60.00 round number
The 63.06 prior low and the 38.2% fib near 63.99 mark the first rebound caps
A close above the 65.08 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Wed ADP (f/c 70K) and PCE MoM (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read; Tue Fed speakers and JOLTS also in play
01:06 UTC
Range-bound, rolling over from range top · price 63.676
Lower highs since the 67.53 swing high inside a 62.30-68.30 multi-week range.