Contracting range: lower highs from 68.31, higher lows off 62.30 floor.
Silver has rotated inside a 62.30 range floor to 68.31 range top for three weeks. The Sep 22 rally met rejection at 67.53, a lower high, and hawkish Fed repricing drove an ~85% retrace of the 62.30–67.53 swing to a 63.06 swing low, a higher low that keeps the range contracting. Friday's yield-pause relief bounce has price sitting on EMA20 but below EMA50 after the bearish EMA cross, with the 65.08 bounce high capping and ATR(14) near 790 pips still elevated rather than compressing.
Support: 63.06, 62.30
Resistance: 65.08, 67.53, 68.31
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 65.08 bounce high reopens the 38.2% fib near 65.53 and the lower-highs trendline toward 67.53
Failure to hold the 63.06 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 62.30 range floor back in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today could cap the bounce into the weekly close
ADP (Wed 12:15 UTC, f/c 70K) and GDP/spending at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a sustained break of either range edge would end the range read
62.30–68.31 range; lower high 67.53, higher low 63.06, rebounding off the floor half.
Silver has held a 62.30–68.31 range for four weeks. Wednesday's PMI beats and the yield surge drove a rejection leg from the 67.53 lower high to a 63.06 higher low. Lower highs and higher lows are compressing price into a narrowing consolidation, and ATR(14) near 780 pips is well off early-month expansion. Friday's bounce, as yields and the USD paused, has lifted price back to the ema20 and the 38.2% retracement of that leg. EMA20 still sits below EMA50 near 65.00, and the 50% fib at 65.29 is the next cap.
Support: 63.059, 62.303
Resistance: 65.294, 67.529, 68.309
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 50% fib at 65.29 and EMA50 reopens the upper range toward the 67.53 lower high
Loss of ema20 and then the 63.06 higher low would put the 62.30 range floor back in play
A break of the lower highs line or the higher lows line resolves the consolidation
UoM 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT and Hammack at 18:00 GMT could shift the yield backdrop materially
Only a close beyond the 68.31 range top or the 62.30 range floor ends the multi-week range read
$62.30–$68.31 range; lower highs at 68.31 and 67.53; compressing above 63.06 swing low.
Silver has rotated inside a $62.30–$68.31 range for three weeks. Wednesday's hot US PMIs and hawkish Fed repricing drove a rejection from the 67.53 swing high, a lower high beneath 68.31. Price is now compressing just above the 63.06 swing low and below a 64.33 bounce cap, trading under both EMA20 and EMA50, which are stacked bearishly, while ATR(14) eases off Wednesday's expansion.
Support: 63.059, 62.303
Resistance: 64.33, 65.294, 67.529
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 63.06 swing low exposes the range floor at 62.30, which has held on two tests
A break of the 62.30 range floor would end the multi-week range read and confirm the lower-highs sequence as a downtrend
Reclaim of the 64.33 bounce cap opens the fib 50% retracement of the 67.53–63.06 drop at 65.29
Only a move back above the 67.53 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline from 68.31
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) today are the key yield catalysts and could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 68.31 and 67.53 over a 62.30-67.50 range, price near the lower third.
Silver has put in successive lower highs at 68.31 and 67.53, and the rejection from the 67.53 lower high erased the entire mid-month recovery. That slide came as hot US PMIs and hawkish Fed repricing pushed yields and the dollar higher. Price is now holding just above the 63.06 swing low, below both EMAs and the 64.60 pivot, with the 62.30 double bottom as the base of the multi-week range. ATR(14) has eased back to roughly 730 pips after the expansion leg, and the market is consolidating rather than extending.
Support: 63.06, 62.30
Resistance: 64.60, 65.85, 67.53
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 63.06 swing low exposes the 62.30 double bottom and the range base
Recovery through the 64.60 pivot would shift focus back to the 65.85 range floor of the prior consolidation
A break above the lower-highs trendline near 67.53 would invalidate the lower-high sequence
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Williams (09:15 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs from 71.17; lows holding above 62.30 range floor.
Silver has swung inside a 62.30–67.53 band for three weeks. Highs keep stepping lower, from 71.17 to 68.31 to the 67.53 lower high, where supply capped the latest rally. Hawkish Fed repricing and the PMI beats drove a ~4.5 slide from that high to a 63.06 swing low, which is still above the 62.30 range floor. Price trades below both EMAs, EMA20 has crossed under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 780 pips shows range expansion rather than compression.
Support: 63.06, 62.30
Resistance: 64.33, 65.06, 67.53
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 63.06 swing low shifts focus to the 62.30 range floor; failure there confirms a lower low
A reclaim of the 64.33 breakdown shelf, then the 38.2% fib near 64.77, would ease the downtrend read
The 65.06 prior low now sits overhead as the first multi-day cap on any rebound
The higher low at 63.06 against 62.30 keeps the lower-highs trendline compressing price into a narrowing band
Fed's Williams, Durable Goods, UoM inflation expectations and Hammack on Fri 25 Sep could materially shift this read