Lower highs from 4219 against rising lows from 4113, a contracting range.
Since Monday's London and NY sessions drove the slide from 4275 to the 4111 week low, gold has retraced between the 38.2% and 61.8% levels of that move. The bounce has stalled there. Wednesday's PCE spike to the 4219 wed high saw rejection and faded in NY as long-end yields rose, and Thursday's London open capped price at the 4193 thu high. That leaves a series of lower highs pressing against rising lows near the 4150 swing low, which has held above the 4139 thu low. Price is coiled just above EMA(20) near 4173, with RSI(14) around 57.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4193 thu high and the lower highs line exposes the 4200 round number and the 4219 wed high
Failure to hold the 4150 swing low and the 4139 thu low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 4111 week low
US NFP and AHE on Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a hot wage print as the larger risk to the 4150 swing low
Higher lows from 4110 against lower highs from 4219, converging range.
Monday's drop from 4275 to the 4110.84 week low came as long-end US yields climbed. Price has since retraced to roughly the 38.2% level of Monday's drop, and Wednesday's Core PCE spike to the 4219 wed high was rejected and faded through NY hours, leaving supply capping every approach to the 4200 round number. Since then H1 has printed higher lows at 4139 and the 4150 thu lows against lower highs at 4193 and 4188, compressing price around EMA(20) near 4171 with RSI(14) flat in the mid-50s.
Support: 4,171.00, 4,150.00, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,188.00, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
US NFP, AHE and unemployment Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the wage print matters most given hot ISM prices paid
An H1 close above the lower highs line near 4188 breaks the compression; acceptance above the 4200 round number brings the 4219 wed high into view
A break of the higher lows line and the 4150 thu lows exposes the 4110.84 week low
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 4171 returns price to the lower half of the converging range
21:07 UTC
Down impulse, now contracting sideways · RSI 50 · price 4,177.24
Lower highs from 4219, higher lows from 4113.
Monday's slide ran from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low into the NY session as the 10y pushed toward 5.27%. Since then the bars have printed higher lows off 4113. Wednesday's post-PCE spike to the 4219.26 week high was rejected at the 61.8% of the Monday drop. That left lower highs at 4192.88 (thu high), 4187 and 4186. Thursday's NY dip on the hot ISM Prices Paid held the 4150 range floor, and price sits at 4177. That is just above a flat ema20/EMA50 cluster near 4170 and the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral around 50.
Support: 4,149.50, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4192.88 thu high (50% retrace) breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 4219 week high back in view
H1 close below the 4150 range floor and higher-lows line puts the 4110.84 week low back in play
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP (f/c 90K) and AHE could resolve the contracting range in either direction
Loss of the ema20 near 4170 would shift the read toward a retest of the range floor
20:05 UTC
Downtrend from Monday, now consolidating · RSI 55 · price 4,178.15
Contracting range: lower highs from 4219, rising lows from 4113.
Monday's slide from 4,275 to the 4,110.84 week low, driven through the London and NY sessions as long yields spiked, is still the week's dominant move. Since then gold has compressed into a pennant: rising lows off Tuesday's 4,113 and lower highs from the 4,219.26 PCE high after Wednesday's NY rejection, with Thursday's lower high at 4,186.15 the latest cap. Price sits just above flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 4,170 with RSI(14) around 54. The range floor at 4,150 held during the ISM-hour dip in Thursday's NY session, after the Asia-session thu low at 4,139.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,186 lower high and the 4,193 fib 50% breaks the pennant higher; acceptance over the 4,219 pce high would negate the week's rejection pattern
Loss of the 4,150 range floor and the 4,139 thu low resolves the pennant lower and reopens the 4,110.84 week low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% MoM) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a hot wage print and rising long yields as gold's most sensitive path
Higher lows vs lower highs off the Wed high, a contracting range.
Monday's NY-session sell-off ran from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low. Since then, higher lows at 4113, 4139 and the 4150 NY low have met lower highs off Wednesday's 4219 post-PCE spike, which reversed above the 61.8% of the sell-off as yields resumed climbing. Thursday's Asia rally stalled at the 4193 thu high, right on the 50% retracement, before a London-open fade. Price now sits just above EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 4170, with RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 4,170.00, 4,150.10, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,219.26, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4193 thu high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 4219 wed high back in play
Loss of the 4150 ny low and the higher-low line exposes the 4110.84 week low
Repeated H1 closes below ema20 at 4170 would shift the range toward its lower half
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC), then Friday's NFP (f/c 90K) at 12:30 UTC could break the squeeze
17:05 UTC
Downtrend from weekly open, now compressing · RSI 46 · price 4,163.03
Lower highs off 4219 vs higher lows off Tuesday, tightening range.
Monday's slide from the 4271 weekly open into the 4110.84 week low around the NY open set the week's tone. The recovery ran into rejection at the 4219 wed high on the soft core PCE spike, close to the 61.8% of the Monday drop, and faded during NY hours as US yields climbed. Thursday has compressed between the 4150 thu lows and the 4193 day high, with lower highs against a Tuesday higher-lows line. Price is sitting just under EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) is near 46.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,219.26, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4150 thu lows and the 4139 day low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4110 week low
Acceptance above the 4193 day high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4219 wed high / 61.8% fib zone
Fed speakers tonight (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC could resolve the compression
Recovery has stalled well short of the 4271 weekly open; the Monday-drop read holds while price stays below 4219
Lower highs from 4219 against higher lows from 4139, compressing range.
Monday's drop ran from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low, starting in the Asia session and extending into NY hours. The rebound was rejected at the 4219.26 PCE high on Wednesday, just beyond the 61.8% retracement, and faded as US yields kept climbing. Since then, lower highs at the 4192.88 day high and 4187.82 have met higher lows at the 4139.31 day low and the 4150 NY low, compressing price around the 38.2% level, with RSI(14) near 51 and price pinned on the flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 4168–4170.
Support: 4,150.10, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4150 NY low and the 4139.31 day low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 4110.84 week low back in play
H1 close above the 4192.88 day high and the 4200 round number breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 4219.26 PCE high is the next cap
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
15:05 UTC
Range after Monday's sell-off, price below EMA20 · RSI 48 · price 4,158.65
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 4110–4220 range, coiling.
Monday's yield-driven slide from the 4275 weekly open area to the 4110.84 week low set the range. Wednesday's soft Core PCE spike to the 4219.26 pce high reversed within the NY session. Thursday's lower high at 4192.88 then stalled near the 50% retrace of that drop, and 4187.82 printed a second lower high. Higher lows from the 4139.31 asia low through 4149–4151 are compressing price around 4158, under the ema20 near 4170 with RSI(14) flat near 48. The hot ISM prices paid print (77.9 vs 72.3) knocked the NY bounce back toward the higher low.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,170.00, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-high trendline and 4193 reopens the 4219 pce high
Failure to hold the 4150 higher low exposes the 4139 asia low, then the 4110.84 week low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4170 would shift the read back to range-mid
Fed speakers Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30–19:30 UTC) could break the coil
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the main risk to the 4110–4220 range
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 4110–4220 range.
Monday's flush from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low has given way to three days of compression. A lower-highs sequence runs from Wednesday's 4219.26 PCE high, which faded as long yields kept climbing, through the 4192.88 thu high near the 50% fib of the Monday drop, to the 4187.82 NY-open peak. Higher lows hold at the 4139.31 asia low and the 4149.08 london low. Price has slipped back under the EMA20 near 4167 into the ISM release, with RSI(14) at 43 and failing to hold above 50 on each bounce.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,167.00, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4139.31 asia low breaks the higher-lows line and re-exposes the 4110.84 week low
Failure to hold the 4149.08 london low leaves price pressing the higher-lows trendline
H1 close back above the ema20 near 4167 and then the 4192.88 thu high breaks the lower-highs sequence, putting the 4219.26 pce high back in view
ISM just released plus Fedspeak 17:30–19:30 UTC could shift this read; US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a break of the range
Higher lows from Monday's 4110 low; lower highs since Wednesday's PCE spike.
Monday's yield-driven crash took gold from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low in NY hours. Tuesday's NY rebound and Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to the 4219.26 pce high both stalled near the 4200 round number, which sits close to the 50% retracement of the Monday crash. Since then price has coiled between higher lows and lower highs: the Asia dip to the 4139.31 thu low and the London dip to 4149 both held, and a lower high printed at 4192.88 (thu high). Price is trading around the EMA(20) near 4167 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, so momentum is neutral inside the 4139–4193 band.
Support: 4,167.00, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, with Waller speaking at the same time, could break the 4139–4193 coil in either direction
An H1 close above the 4192.88 thu high and the 4200 round number would break the lower-highs line and bring the 4219.26 pce high back into play
A loss of the 4139.31 thu low and the higher-lows trendline would expose the 4110.84 week low
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 near 4167 would shift the coil toward its lower half
Friday's 12:30 UTC NFP is the week's largest scheduled catalyst for this structure
Lower highs against higher lows, compressing below the 50% retrace.
Monday's London-into-NY slide from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low set the dominant move. Since then the sequence of higher lows (4113, then the 4139.31 asia low) has met a line of lower highs. Yesterday's post-PCE poke to the 4219.26 pce high, just through the 61.8% of the Monday drop, was rejected as yields climbed, and today's Asia-session push stalled at a 4192.88 lower high. London has since faded price back to the 4149.08 london low, with closes below the ema20 near 4162 and RSI(14) sitting just under 50.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,162.00, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4139.31 asia low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4110.84 week low
Failure to hold the 4149.08 london low keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Recovery above the ema20 and the 4192.88 lower high reopens the 4219.26 pce high and the 61.8% Monday drop fib
Acceptance above 4219.26 would invalidate the lower-highs read
Contracting range: lower highs vs higher lows above week low.
Monday's impulse ran from the 4275 weekly open area to the 4110.84 week low, with selling from Asia through the NY open. Since then H1 has compressed into a contracting range: higher lows at 4113 and the 4139 asian low against lower highs at the 4219 pce high and the 4193 lower high. The post-PCE spike to 4219 was rejected near the 61.8% retrace as yields reasserted, and London opened today by selling off the 4193 lower high at the 50% level, putting price back below the ema20 near 4166 and just above the 4149 session low, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,166.00, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
Holding the 4149 session low and 4139 asian low keeps the higher-low sequence intact
An H1 close below the 4110.84 week low resumes Monday's downtrend leg
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 4166, then the 4193 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4219 pce high back in play
ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, prices paid 72.3) plus Waller and Williams remarks could materially shift this read
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC is an earlier catalyst during NY hours
Monday's slide from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low was the week's dominant move. Since then H1 has compressed into a range. A higher-low trendline runs from the 4113 base to today's 4139.31 asian low, and a lower-high trendline runs from Wednesday's 4219.26 pce high to the 4192.88 asian high, which sits on the 50% fib of Monday's slide. The PCE spike faded as yields and strong US growth data lifted USD, and the London open has since knocked price back to the 4154.44 london low. Price now sits below the ema20 (~4168) and the EMA(50) (~4174), with RSI(14) at a neutral 49.
Support: 4,154.44, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,168.00, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3), alongside Waller, could break the range; Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC come first
H1 close back above the ema20 near 4168 and the 4192.88 asian high / 50% fib breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 4219.26 pce high
Failure to hold the 4154.44 london low, then the 4139.31 asian low, breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 4110.84 week low
Further gains in the US 10y and 30y yields would add pressure on the higher-low trendline
Post-impulse consolidation 4139–4220 with higher lows.
Monday's slide from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low, which finished in NY hours, is still the dominant move. Since then H1 has rotated in a 4139–4220 consolidation with higher lows. Wednesday's PCE spike to the 4219 pce high was a false break above 4200 and reversed as long-end yields climbed. Today's Asia session bounce off the 4139 asian low has stalled at the 50% fib near 4193, with price above the ema20 (4170) and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 4,170.20, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,193.00, 4,219.26, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 4193 reopens the 61.8% at 4212 and the 4219 pce high
Lower-highs line from the 4219 pce high caps the rebound unless cleared
Loss of the ema20 at 4170 and then the 4139 asian low breaks the higher-lows line
Below 4139, the 4110.84 week low is the reference for a lower-low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Friday's NFP behind it
05:07 UTC
Downtrend from Monday, now basing with higher lows · RSI 58 · price 4,180.68
Range 4110–4220 since Monday's low; higher lows under a lower-highs line.
The week opened with a gap lower to 4271 and a London-into-NY slide to the 4110.84 week low on Monday as yields pushed higher. Since then the market has built higher lows. Wednesday's soft-PCE pop to the 4219.26 pce high tagged the 61.8% of the Monday fib and met rejection during NY hours under the lower-highs line. The Asia-session dip to the 4139.31 asia low held the higher-lows trendline. Price has since reclaimed the ema20 (~4167) and EMA(50) (~4174), with RSI(14) at 58 pressing into the tue high at 4185.
Support: 4,167.00, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,185.22, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (Prices Paid vs 72.3) could materially shift this read
An H1 close above psych 4200 and the pce high at 4219.26 would break the lower-highs line and the Monday fib 61.8%
A close back below the ema20 and a loss of the asia low at 4139.31 would break the higher-lows trendline and expose the week low
Failure to clear the tue high at 4185 keeps price in the mid-range below the Monday fib 50% (~4193)
Fedspeak from Waller, Jefferson, Bowman and Williams through the NY session
Higher lows since Monday's 4111 low, lower high at 4219, ranging 4139–4219.
Monday's crash ran from the 4275 weekly open through London into NY. It stopped at the 4111 week low, Tuesday's retest at 4113 held, and higher lows have printed along a rising support line since. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to the 4219 pce spike high poked just past the 61.8% retracement of the crash and was rejected through NY as long-end yields climbed. Thursday's Asia dip held the 4139 asia low before price pushed back above EMA(20) (~4165) to the 38.2% level near 4174, with RSI(14) at 54 and price leaning into the 4187 range cap.
Support: 4,165.00, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4187 range cap and the 4200 round number reopens the 4219 pce spike high
Break of rising support and the 4139 asia low would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 4111 week low
Loss of EMA(20) near 4165 returns price to the mid-range chop seen since Wednesday's NY session
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Friday's US NFP is the week's main event risk for the range
03:05 UTC
Downtrend from weekly open, now ranging above the week low · RSI 46 · price 4,161.37
4110–4220 range after Monday's drop; lower high at 4219, higher lows from 4113.
Monday's slide from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low ran from Asia into the NY session. Tuesday's retest near 4113 held as a higher low. Wednesday's PCE-driven spike to 4219.26 stalled just beyond the 61.8% retracement of the Monday drop, then reversed through NY hours as long-end yields climbed, leaving price below EMA(20) near 4164 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) back in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,164.00, 4,193.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
Thursday's Asia low at 4139.31 is sitting on the rising higher-lows line; losing both exposes the 4110.84 week low
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 4164 and the 50% fib near 4193 reopens the 4219 PCE spike high
Acceptance above the 4219 PCE spike breaks the lower-high sequence from the Monday drop
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker), alongside Waller, could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating below EMAs · RSI 41 · price 4,156.57
Post-crash range 4111–4219; lower high after PCE rejection.
Monday's selloff from the 4271 weekly open ran from Asia into NY and printed the 4111 week low. Tuesday's rebound built a rising trendline, and Wednesday's soft Core PCE spike reached the 4219 PCE high, just past the 61.8% of Monday's drop. That spike was rejected as long-end yields climbed, leaving a false break above 4200 and breaking the Tuesday trendline. Price now sits below ema20 near 4162 and EMA(50) near 4168, with RSI(14) around 41 and the Asian low at 4139 holding so far.
Support: 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,162.20, 4,193.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 4139 Asian low exposes the 4111 week low, where Monday and Tuesday both based.
Failure to hold the 4111 week low confirms a lower-low below Monday's base.
Reclaiming ema20 at 4162 and then the 4193 50% fib would weaken the rejection read, with the 4219 PCE high capping above.
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read; Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC come first.
Lower high at 4219 under the 4271 weekly open; price back in the lower half of the 4111–4219 swing.
Monday's slide from the 4271 weekly open to the 4111 week low set the tone, with the drop running from Asia through London and bottoming in NY hours. Tuesday's NY-led recovery extended into Wednesday's soft Core PCE print, but the false break above 4200 to the 4219 pce high overshot the 61.8% retracement and reversed within the same NY session as long-end yields climbed, leaving a lower high beneath the line of lower highs from Monday. Price now sits below ema20 (~4162) and EMA(50) (~4170) with RSI(14) near 37, and today's asia low at 4139 is the nearest test.
Support: 4,139.31, 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,162.00, 4,173.60, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asia low at 4139 exposes the week low near 4111, with the 4100 round number below
H1 close back above ema20 and the 38.2% fib at 4174 would weaken the lower-high read
A move through the 4219 pce high breaks the line of lower highs and negates the rejection
ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, prices paid f/c 72.3) and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is an earlier catalyst ahead of ISM
Lower high at 4219 after Monday's impulse low at 4110; price compressing just above the Wednesday low.
The week opened with Monday's sell-off from 4275 to the 4110.84 week low. It ran from the Asia session into NY hours on yield and Fed-hike pressure, and Tuesday's NY-session recovery built a rising trendline of higher lows. Wednesday's Core PCE miss sent gold briefly above 4200 to a pce spike at 4219.26, just beyond the 61.8% retracement of Monday's drop, but the move failed within the hour as long-end yields climbed. That reversal broke the recovery trendline and left price flat near 4155, under the EMA(20) at about 4166 and just above the wed low at 4147. RSI(14) sits in the high 30s.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,166.00, 4,185.22, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the wed low at 4147 would put the 4110 week low back in play
A break of the 4110 week low confirms a lower-low and resumes the downtrend
Reclaiming the EMA(20) near 4166 and the tuesday high at 4185 would neutralise the post-PCE rejection
Acceptance back above the 4219 pce spike would invalidate the lower-high read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid (Thu 14:00 UTC), plus Waller, could materially shift this read