4111–4227 weekly range; false break at top, lower half retested.
Gold has held a 4111–4227 range since Monday's slide to the weekly low. The round number 4200 capped Wednesday and Friday, and the 29K NFP miss produced a false break to a 4227 week high in the first hour of NY before rising long-end yields drove a roughly $100 reversal to the 4125 friday low. Price now sits near 4145, below EMA(20) (~4163) and EMA(50) (~4166), with RSI(14) near 43 and price between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the week's rally fib.
Support: 4,125.22, 4,111.33
Resistance: 4,163.00, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 4163 would ease the post-NFP reversal read
Break below the 4125 friday low exposes the 4111 weekly low and the range floor
Acceptance above the 4227 week high, after rejection at the 4200 round number, would invalidate the range-top read
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) plus Prices Paid could materially shift this read
4111–4227 week range, top rejected twice in NY hours.
Gold has held a 4111–4227 week range since Monday's slide set the week low. Two NY-session spikes stalled at 4219 on Wednesday and 4227 after Friday's 29K NFP miss. The post-payrolls push above Wednesday's high was a false break, unwinding into a 4125 nfp low as the 10y held near 5.29%. Price now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the week range, below a rolling-over EMA(20) near 4163, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 4,125.22, 4,111.33
Resistance: 4,163.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the ema20 near 4163 would ease the post-NFP rejection read
Loss of the 4125 nfp low exposes the 4111 week low; a close below it breaks the range
Sustained acceptance above the 4227 week high would negate the range-top rejection
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via yields
Monday's 4111 weekly low launched a two-day recovery, but every push above 4200 has failed to hold, first Wednesday's post-PCE pop to the 4219 weekly high and now today's NFP spike to 4227. The payroll miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) briefly lifted gold through that weekly high before a full NY-session reversal sliced through the 4150 range floor to a 4125 session low. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 4165 with RSI(14) near 37, and the 38.2% retracement of the NFP reversal lines up with that ema20 area.
Support: 4,125.22, 4,111.33
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,165.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4150 range floor and the ema20 near 4165 would neutralise the post-NFP false break
Failure to hold the 4125 session low and the higher-low line from Monday exposes the 4111 weekly low
Acceptance above the 4219 weekly high would end this week's pattern of capped pushes above 4200
ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print would echo the post-PCE fade
4110–4227 weekly range; false break above Wednesday's 4219 high, now in lower half below both EMAs.
Gold has held a 4110–4220 range this week. Monday's NY-session slump set the weekly low at 4110.84, and Wednesday's PCE spike to 4219 faded. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a first-hour-of-NY push to a new week high at 4227, but the move fully reversed within three bars to the 4125 nfp low. That false break took price back below the prior floor near 4150 and the ema cluster at 4168, matching the digest's pattern of dovish impulses fading this week. RSI(14) sits near 41 after the drop, and ATR has expanded to about $20 on the NFP bars.
Support: 4,125.22, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,168.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4168 ema cluster, which is also the 38.2% of the nfp reversal, would neutralise the false break read
Acceptance back above the prior floor at 4150 returns price to mid-range
Higher-low line from Monday's low is being tested near 4138; a sustained break below it shifts the structure lower
Failure to hold the 4125 nfp low exposes the 4110.84 weekly low; a close below it ends the weekly range
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Upside false break at 4227, prior floor 4150 lost.
After Monday's slide to the 4110.84 weekly low, gold rebuilt a 4150–4195 range Tuesday to Thursday, with Wednesday's soft-PCE pop to 4219 fading the same session. The 29K NFP miss drove a spike to a 4227.28 week high in the first hour of NY, but the move fully reversed. Price fell about $100 into the 4125 session low and broke back below EMA(20), EMA(50), the prior floor near 4150 and the higher-low line from Monday. That repeats this week's pattern of dovish impulses being faded. H1 RSI(14) has dropped from the low 60s to around 36 in four bars.
Support: 4,125.22, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,172.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4150 prior floor would put price back inside the mid-week range and weaken the false break read
Failure to hold the 4125 session low exposes the 4110.84 weekly low; a break there marks a lower low for the week
A rebound into the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP drop (~4164) and EMA20 near 4172 is the first test of the reversal
Holding below the higher-low line from Monday keeps the break of the range structure intact
Friday close and weekend gap risk, then ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), could materially shift this read
The 29K NFP miss lifted gold to a 4227 weekly high in the first hour of NY, clearing Wednesday's 4219 post-PCE peak, but the move fully reversed within three bars back below the 4200 round number and EMA20 (~4177). Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the move from Monday's 4110 weekly low, just above intra-range support near 4150. Higher lows since Monday remain intact, but this is the second failed hold above 4200 this week.
Support: 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below 4150 intra-range support exposes the 4133 friday low and the higher lows trendline near 4138
Recovery back above EMA20 near 4177 and the 4200 round number would undercut the false break read
Acceptance above the 4227 weekly high would invalidate the range read
ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, watch Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Loss of the higher lows trendline puts the 4110 weekly low back in focus
14:05 UTC
Range-bound, rejection at the upper end · RSI 54 · price 4,187.47
4110–4227 range, higher lows since Tuesday.
Gold has rotated inside a 4110–4227 range since Monday's low. A rising line of higher lows from Tuesday's 4113 now sits near 4137. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a spike to a 4227 week high in the first hour of NY, but price failed to hold above the 4219 wed high, the second rejection above 4200 this week after Wednesday's post-PCE fade.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,219.26, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 4219 wed high and 4227 week high would end the range read
Price is holding between the 38.2% and 50% fib of Friday's 4134–4227 leg, still above EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 54
Loss of the 50% fib at 4180, alongside EMA(20), exposes the 4150 range floor tested repeatedly on Thursday
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 4134 friday low from the Asia session would shift structure to lower lows
The pre-nfp high at 4197 is the first cap on any recovery back toward the range top
Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC, then ISM Services on Monday (f/c 55.7), could shift the yield-driven read
13:05 UTC
Range break higher, momentum building · RSI 66 · price 4,219.46
Week-long 4150–4200 range broken on NFP; new week high, breakout untested.
After Monday's NY-session drop to 4110.84, gold spent the week in a 4150–4200 range. Wednesday's PCE spike to 4219.26 faded, and so did Thursday's push to 4192. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) drove a roughly 50-dollar range break in the 12:00 UTC bar to a new week high at 4227.28. Price now sits just above Wednesday's high, with EMA(20) near 4186 well below and the week-range fib 23.6% aligned with the 4200 range top. RSI(14) near 66 is elevated but short of overbought, and the breakout is a single bar old with no retest yet.
Support: 4,219.26, 4,200.00, 4,186.00
Resistance: 4,227.28, 4,250.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4200 range top repeats the Wed/Thu fade pattern and restores the range read
Acceptance above the 4227.28 week high opens the 4250 psych level
Holding Wednesday's high at 4219 on a pullback would confirm it as support
A pullback to the ema20 near 4186, around the 38.2% week-range fib, keeps the breakout structure intact
The rising-lows line from Monday's 4110.84 to Friday's 4133.79 is the lower structural boundary
Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and any rebound in Treasury yields could challenge the post-NFP move
Lower highs vs higher lows, contracting inside 4150–4200.
Gold has compressed between lower highs and higher lows since Wednesday's Core PCE spike to the 4,219.26 week high faded, with the 4,150 range floor tested repeatedly on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday's Asia low at 4,133.79 held above Monday's 4,110.84 trough, and the London session then pushed price to the 4,196.79 Friday high before it stalled under the 4,200 round number, a rejection consistent with the digest's three failures there this week. Price sits marginally above a flat EMA(20) near 4,178 and on the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Wed impulse, while RSI(14) is parked around 52 and the London low at 4,166 is the nearest intraday floor.
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) lands within the next bar and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4,200 round number and the 4,196.79 friday high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 4,219.26 week high back in play
H1 close below the 4,166 london low, then the 4,150 range floor, breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4,133.79 asia low
Loss of the 61.8% retracement of the Mon-Wed impulse near 4,152 would undo most of Tuesday's rebound
Lower highs since Wed's 4219 spike against higher lows from Monday's 4110 low.
Monday's NY-session flush to 4110.84 on surging yields was fully retraced by Wednesday, when the softer Core PCE lifted gold to the 4219.26 week high before NY hours reversed it. Since then there have been lower highs at 4192.88 and 4196.79 against higher lows at 4139.31 and the 4133.79 Asia low, compressing the range beneath the 4200 psych level. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) flat near 54, and the London low at 4166 sits on the 50% fib of the Mon–Wed leg ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,166.07, 4,150.10, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
US NFP and wages at 12:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read; hot AHE vs soft headline is the key split
H1 close above the 4200 psych level and the lower-high line opens the path to the 4219.26 week high
Break of the 4166 London low puts price back under EMA20 and the 50% fib
Failure to hold the 4150 range floor exposes the 4133.79 Asia low and the higher-lows line
10:04 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding from Asia dip · RSI 57 · price 4,184.46
Contracting $4,150–4,200 range: higher lows from Monday, lower highs from Wednesday.
Gold has ranged $4,150–4,200 since Wednesday's NY reversal from the 4219 week high. Softer Core PCE briefly lifted price there before long-end yields pulled it back. Today's Asia dip to 4133.79 found demand and was retraced into the London session, extending the higher-lows sequence off Monday's 4110 week low, while lower highs keep capping below the 4200 round number, with today high at 4196.79 the latest. Price sits just above ema20 near 4178 and the 38.2% retracement of the Mon–Wed leg, with RSI(14) at 57, mid-range.
Support: 4,178.00, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4200 round number and the 4219 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range read
Rejection again at today high 4196.79 keeps the lower-highs line intact
Failure to hold ema20 near 4178 returns price to the mid-range of the Mon–Wed leg
Loss of the 4150 range floor (≈61.8% of the Mon–Wed leg) breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4110 week low
09:06 UTC
Range-bound, upper half of week range · RSI 55 · price 4,182.83
4110–4219 range; lower highs vs higher lows compressing.
Gold has held a range between Monday's 4110.84 NY-session low and the 4219.26 week high. Wednesday's push above 4200 around Core PCE was a false break as long-end yields kept climbing, and it unwound to the Thursday lows near 4150, the 61.8% of the Mon–Wed fib. Demand stepped in after Friday's Asian dip to the 4133.79 Friday low and carried price through the London open to the 4196.79 Friday high, leaving it above EMA20 (~4176) and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 55. The lower highs from 4219 and higher lows from 4110 are compressing the structure into NFP.
Support: 4,176.00, 4,150.00, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 psych level and the 4196.79 Friday high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 4219.26 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 4150 Thursday lows and the 4133.79 Friday low breaks the higher-lows line toward 4110.84
Sustained trade below EMA20 near 4176 returns price to the middle of the range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
08:04 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from range floor · RSI 57 · price 4,186.00
4150–4200 range since Tuesday, lower highs below 4219 week high.
Gold has rotated inside a 4150–4200 range since Tuesday, after Monday's slide into the NY open printed the 4110.84 week low. Wednesday's softer-PCE push to the 4219.26 week high was a false break above the round number. Price then met rejection and faded back to the range floor as long-end yields climbed. Friday's Asia dip to the 4133.79 Friday low held near the 78.6% fib of the Mon-Wed rally, and price has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 4175 with RSI(14) around 57 into London, capped just under the lower highs line.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
US NFP, unemployment and wages at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4196.79 asia high and 4200 round number would break the lower highs line and bring the 4219.26 week high back into view
Loss of EMA(20) near 4175 returns price to mid-range; failure at the 4150 range floor reopens the 4133.79 Friday low and the higher lows line toward 4110.84
07:04 UTC
Sideways, contracting range · RSI 56 · price 4,180.92
Higher lows vs lower highs inside 4150–4200.
Since Tuesday, H1 has rotated inside a $4,150–4,200 range. Higher lows are building off Monday's $4,110.84 week low, while lower highs run from Wednesday's $4,219.26 week high, a post-PCE spike that faded as long-end yields climbed. Friday's Asia session dip to the $4,133.79 friday low was a false break of the range floor and was reclaimed into the London open. Price now sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50), near the 38.2% retracement of the week swing, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, while the friday high at $4,196.79 and the $4,200 handle keep capping attempts higher.
What it said to watch
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; with hike odds low, a hot print has more room to move yields and gold
An H1 close above $4,200 and the lower highs line, followed by acceptance above the $4,219.26 week high, invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the $4,150 range floor reopens the friday low, and a break of the higher lows line exposes the $4,110.84 week low
06:04 UTC
Sideways after Monday selloff, recovering into range top · RSI 59 · price 4,189.51
4134–4219 range since Tuesday; lows holding above the 4110.84 week low.
Monday's selloff set the 4110.84 week low as yields climbed. Since then gold has rotated inside a 4134–4219 band: the rally on softer Core PCE to the 4219.26 wed high faded, and Thursday's NY attempts were capped at the 4193 range top, near the 4200 psych level. Today's Asia session dip to 4133.79 held the range floor and the 78.6% fib of the Monday–Wednesday rally, with prior lows near 4148 and the 61.8% fib area absorbing earlier pullbacks. Price has since reclaimed EMA(20) and is retesting 4193, with RSI(14) at 59.
Support: 4,176.00, 4,148.00, 4,134.00
Resistance: 4,193.00, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4193 range top exposes the 4200 psych level and the 4219.26 wed high
A move back below the ema20 near 4176 returns focus to prior lows at 4148, near the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 4134 range floor breaks the range read and brings the 4110.84 week low back into view
US NFP and wages at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
05:05 UTC
Sideways after Monday's drop, pressing range top · RSI 59 · price 4,185.05
Range 4150–4193 since Tuesday; rising lows meet lower highs.
Gold has held a 4150–4193 range since Tuesday, after Monday's NY-session slide to the 4110.84 low. Wednesday's PCE spike to the 4219 week high faded into a false break as long-end yields climbed, and Thursday's London and NY dips both held the range floor near 4150, close to the 61.8% of the Mon–Wed rally fib. Friday's dip to the 4133.8 Asia low was reclaimed back above EMA(20) at about 4172, leaving price at the range top just under a lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 4,172.00, 4,150.00, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4192.9 range top and the lower-highs line puts 4200 psych and the 4219 week high back in view
Loss of the 4150 range floor, then the 4133.8 Asia low, breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 4110.84 Monday low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read; moves above 4200 have faded three times this week
04:04 UTC
Range after Monday sell-off, contracting · RSI 56 · price 4,178.50
Lower highs from 4219 vs higher lows from 4110.84 week low; tightening range.
Monday's sell-off from 4231 to the 4110.84 week low has given way to a contracting range, with lower highs from Wednesday's 4219 post-PCE spike, which faded during NY hours, converging on higher lows off the week low. Price reclaimed EMA(20) near 4170 after the Asia session dip to 4133.79 as yields eased, and is now pressing the lower-highs line around 4184, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Monday drop. The 4200 psych handle has capped every rally since Wednesday, the 4150 shelf has held four tests, and RSI(14) sits mid-50s.
Support: 4,170.00, 4,150.00, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,184.00, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could break the contracting range in either direction
H1 close above the lower-highs line near 4184 and 4200 psych would put the 4219 week high back in focus
Failure to hold the 4150 shelf would expose the higher-lows line near 4135, then the 4110.84 week low
Loss of EMA(20) near 4170 would mark another failed approach to the lower-highs line
Contracting range 4134–4193, lower highs vs higher lows.
Monday's NY-session slide to the 4110.84 week low has given way to a contracting range. Highs are stepping lower from Wednesday's post-PCE spike to 4219, with rejection again at the 4192.88 Thu high as long-end yields held near multi-decade highs, while lows are rising from Tuesday's 4113 base. Price sits on a flat EMA20/50 ema cluster near 4168, also the 38.2% retrace of Monday's drop, with RSI(14) at 51 after demand stepped in at the 4133.79 asia low during the Asia session.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,133.79, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,168.00, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~9h away) could materially shift this read, with gold tracking the 10y yield tick-for-tick
An H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 4192.88 thu high opens the 4219.26 wed high, near the 61.8% retrace of Monday's drop
Failure to hold the 4149 range floor exposes the 4133.79 asia low and the higher-lows line
Acceptance below the 4110.84 week low turns the bounce into a renewed downtrend leg
02:05 UTC
Range after Monday sell-off, highs descending · RSI 39 · price 4,147.35
Lower highs from 4219; rising-lows line broken in Asia.
Monday's NY-session slide to the 8wk low at 4110.84 has given way to a 4110–4220 range. Highs have stepped down since the post-PCE rejection at the 4219.26 pce high, with the thu high at 4192.88 next and rallies fading as long-end yields firmed. Friday's Asia session pushed price through the rising-lows line to the 4133.79 asia low, near the 78.6% retracement of the bounce, and it now trades below the H1 ema20 (~4167) with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,133.79, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,166.60, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC Friday (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4133.79 asia low exposes the 8wk low at 4110.84
H1 close back above the ema20 and the lower-highs line near 4180 reopens the thu high at 4192.88
Acceptance above the 4219.26 pce high would break the lower-highs sequence
01:05 UTC
Corrective range after Monday's sell-off, lower highs forming · RSI 41 · price 4,152.80
4,140–4,193 range inside 4,110–4,219 week; lower highs since Wed.
Monday's NY-session flush to the 4,110.84 week low turned into a corrective bounce. Wednesday's post-PCE spike to the 4,219.26 week high reversed, and Thursday's London-session push stalled at 4,192.88, leaving a sequence of lower highs as long-end yields capped rallies. A roughly $29 Asia-session drop has put price back on the 4,150 range floor, where the 61.8% retracement of the week's bounce meets the higher-lows line from Tuesday. Price sits below the EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) is near 41.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4,149 range floor and the higher-lows line exposes the 4,139.31 swing low, then the 4,110.84 week low
Recovery through the ema20 near 4,168 and above the 4,192.88 thu high would break the lower-highs sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (~11h away) could materially shift this read; acceptance above the 4,219.26 week high would end the corrective-range read
Gold fell from the 4271 weekly open to a 4110.84 week low during Monday's NY session as long-end yields spiked. A higher-lows trendline from Tuesday's 4113 base has held since. Wednesday's PCE pop to the 4219 pce high near the 61.8% fib was rejected. Since then the 4192.88 thu high and a lower-highs line from it have capped price, while the 4149 range floor has absorbed two London/NY dips. Price is holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) at around 4182, the 38.2–50% fib zone, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,139.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,219.26, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
US NFP/AHE at 12:30 UTC Fri (~12h) could materially shift this read; the compression is tight going into it
H1 close above the lower-highs line and 4192.88 thu high exposes the 4219 pce high; acceptance above that brings the 4271 weekly open into view
Break below the 4149 range floor and the higher-lows trendline reopens the 4139 swing low and the 4110.84 week low