22:27 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading near lows · RSI 37 · price 3,881.67
Lower highs / lower lows from the late-August peak; testing yearly low.
Gold has been in a downtrend since the 4696.74 late-August peak. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows holds, with price below both EMAs and the EMA(50) sliding from about 4250 to 4123 over the last 20 sessions. The early-November bounce stalled at a 4148.52 lower high, just above the EMA(50), and reversed on Tuesday's hot US CPI as yields and the USD pushed higher. Three losing sessions printed a 3852.50 yearly low, just under the Oct 30 low at 3870.26. RSI at 37.4 sits well above its 29.2 reading at the Oct 30 low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR has expanded to its widest of the last 20 sessions.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 4,028.57, 4,122.58, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 3852.50 yearly low extends the lower-low chain and voids the RSI divergence
- Failure to hold the Oct 30 low at 3870.26 keeps price pinned at the lows
- Reclaim of ema20 at 4028.57 would mark the first sign the falling trendline sequence is loosening
- Close above the 4148.52 lower high, and the ema50 at 4122.58, breaks the downtrend structure; the 38.2% of the Aug-Nov swing fib sits near 4175
- Fed Chair Warsh (Mon 17:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read