22:04 UTC
Downtrend, selling accelerating · RSI 37 · price 3,877.57
Lower-high/lower-low chain from late-August peak, fresh yearly low.
Gold has carved a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the late-August peak at 4,696.74. Price sits below the EMA(20) at 4,044.04 and a steadily falling EMA(50) at 4,132.41. Monday's lower high at 4,148.52 was rejected after Tuesday's hot core CPI and hawkish Fedspeak lifted yields and the USD, and three sessions of selling have since printed a fresh yearly low at 3,852.50 as ATR expands to its widest of the last 20 sessions. RSI at 37.1 is soft but not oversold, leaving the yearly low and the 3,800 round number as the reference points below.
Support: 3,852.50, 3,800.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,044.04, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
- Friday's US PPI (core MoM f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read; a daily close below the 3,852.50 yearly low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3,800 round number
- Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC tonight for any endorsement of a 50 bp hike
- A daily close back above the 4,000 psych handle would mark first stabilisation; the ema20 at 4,044 is the next cap
- Only a close above the 4,148.52 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the downtrend structure, near the 38.2% retracement (~4,175) of the August–November decline