XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 12 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 45 · price 3,883.39
Tight range 3872–3888 under a lower-high sequence after the NY selloff.
Hawkish Fed repricing drove a slide from 3955 through the NY open to a 3852.5 yearly low. Since then gold has held a 3872–3888 consolidation, stalling between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the selloff fib, with ATR compressing to 597 pips. Early Asia, during Williams' speech, is pressing ema20 (3879.73) from below, with RSI 44.5 neutral and ema50 at 3896.47 overhead.
Support: 3,879.73, 3,872.19, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,887.60, 3,896.47, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above range high 3887.6 and the lower-high trendline opens ema50 at 3896.5, then the 3909 lower high
Failure to hold range low 3872.2 exposes the 3852.5 yearly low
Williams remarks (23:30 UTC) and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight post-selloff range 3872–3888 above the 3852.5 yearly low.
Gold's NY-session liquidation found a floor at the 3852.5 yearly low, and price has spent the past seven hours boxed between the 3872 range low and the 3887.6 range high. Hot-CPI rate repricing and a 19-month DXY high are still the driver. Early Asia trades just under the ema20 at 3879.85 and near the 23.6% fib of the 3955–3852 leg, with RSI 42.8 and ATR falling from 1058 to 616 pips as volatility drains.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,879.85, 3,887.60, 3,897.20
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams speaking in the current bar; any 50bp endorsement could break the range
M15 close below the 3872.19 range low exposes the 3852.5 yearly low
Close above the 3887.6 range high clears the ema20 and puts the ema50 at 3897.2 and the 38.2% fib near 3892 in play
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility event
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY sell-off · RSI 42 · price 3,878.05
Tight range 3872–3888 below both EMAs after yearly-low bounce.
London broke below the Asian range, then the NY sell-off on hawkish Fed repricing and a firm USD extended the drop to the 3852.5 yearly low. The rebound stalled at the 3887.6 range high and price has compressed between that and the 3872 range low, below the ema20 (3880.09) and ema50 (3898.01). RSI(14) sits at 41.8 and ATR(14) has eased to 631 pips as the new Asia session opens quietly.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,880.09, 3,887.60, 3,898.01
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, 13 minutes away, could break the range in either direction
An M15 close below the 3872 range low exposes the 3865.71 swing low and the 3852.5 yearly low
A close above the 3887.6 range high brings the 38.2% NY sell-off fib near 3892 and the ema50 at 3898 into view
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger catalyst for a test of the yearly low or a deeper retracement
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after the yearly-low flush · RSI 43 · price 3,877.57
Post-selloff consolidation 3866–3888 below falling EMAs.
Gold lost the Asian range low near 3969 in London and extended through NY to a 3852.50 yearly low as 50 bp Fed hike talk and DXY highs drove the move. Since then it has held a 3866–3888 consolidation, with the range high capping below the 38.2% fib of the NY drop. Late NY dipped to a 3872.19 late low and the close sits just under ema20 3880.45 and well below ema50 3898.87, with RSI 42.6 and ATR compressing to 643 pips.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,880.45, 3,887.60, 3,898.87
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, about 28 min out, could break the consolidation either side
M15 close below the 3865.71 range low exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
M15 close above the 3887.60 range high and 38.2% fib opens a test of ema50 near 3899
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the main risk to the yearly-low read
NY flush to 3852.50, then a tight 3870–3888 consolidation below both EMAs.
Hawkish Fedspeak and a firm dollar drove a NY-session liquidation from 3948 to a 3852.50 day low, at the yearly low. The bounce stalled at the 3887.60 bounce high, just shy of the 38.2% fib. Price is now consolidating under the ema20 (3880.45) and the ema50 (3898.87), with ATR compressing from 1146 to 643 pips and RSI(14) at 42.6.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,880.45, 3,887.60, 3,898.87
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, about 44 minutes away, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 3887.60 bounce high breaks the consolidation and opens the ema50 at 3898.87
Failure to hold the 3872.19 late NY low exposes the 3865.71 swing low and the 3852.50 day low
US PPI on Friday at 13:30 UTC is the next major volatility risk for the yearly-low area
Post-flush range 3865.7–3887.6 under the yearly low bounce.
Hawkish-Fed liquidation took gold from the 4000.45 Asian high to a 3852.5 yearly low in the first hour of NY, and price has since been boxed in a 3865.7–3887.6 band. The range top capped three times after the 38.2% fib, and price sits back under the ema20 at 3880.45. RSI is 42.6 and ATR(14) has compressed to 643 pips ($6.4) as NY hours wind down.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,880.45, 3,887.60, 3,898.87
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~1h) could break the late-NY range either way
M15 close above the 3887.6 range top opens the path to the ema50 at 3898.87
Loss of the 3872.2 late low exposes the 3865.7 swing low, then the 3852.5 yearly low
Break below the 3852.5 yearly low ends the consolidation read; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after flush to yearly low · RSI 43 · price 3,877.57
Post-selloff consolidation 3865–3888, rising lows off 3852.50.
London broke below the 3962–4000 Asian range, and the NY-session leg from 3948 ran to a 3852.50 yearly low as hawkish Fed repricing and a 19-month DXY high hit gold. Since then price has held a 3865–3888 consolidation below the 38.2% fib, with the range high capping and higher lows printing on the post-low trendline. Late in the session, price sits under a flat ema20 (3880.45) and the ema50 (3898.87), RSI 42.6, ATR compressed to 643 pips from 1146.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,880.45, 3,887.60, 3,898.87
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~73 min) could break the consolidation either side
M15 close above the 3887.60 range high opens the 38.2% fib near 3892 and ema50 at 3898.87
Failure to hold the 3872.19 late low and post-low trendline puts the 3865.71 range low in play
A break of 3865.71 exposes the 3852.50 yearly low; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
The NY-session flush from 3948.57 around the claims print, on hawkish Fed repricing, bottomed at the 3852.50 yearly low. Price has since held a 3865.71–3887.60 range, with the range top capping just under the 38.2% fib of the drop at 3889. Late-NY trade sits just below a flattening ema20 at 3880.45, with RSI 42.6 and ATR compressing to 643 pips.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,880.45, 3,887.60, 3,898.87
What it said to watch
Close above the 3887.60 range top and 38.2% fib at 3889 opens the ema50 at 3898.87
Loss of the 3872.19 late-NY low, then the 3865.71 range low, exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (in ~87 min) could break the range in thin early-Asia liquidity
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the main risk to the range read
Tight range 3865–3888 after NY sell-off to yearly low; lower highs inside range.
Gold slid during the London open and broke sharply lower in the first hour of NY on hawkish Fedspeak and a firm USD, printing a yearly low at 3852.50 before steadying. Since then price has been held in a 3865.71–3887.60 range, with the range high twice capped below 3888 and a fresh swing low at 3872.19 late in NY hours. Price is below the ema20 (3880.75) and ema50 (3899.74); RSI(14) sits at 41.2 and ATR(14) has compressed to 672.6 pips from 1,180.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,880.75, 3,887.60, 3,899.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3887.60 range high, near the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off, ends the lower-high sequence and puts the ema50 at 3899.74 in play
Ema20 at 3880.75 capping bounces keeps the consolidation below the averages
Break of the 3872.19 swing low and the 3865.71 range low exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~104 min) could break the range in thin post-NY trade; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
Post-selloff range 3865–3888, lower highs since 3887.60.
Gold lost the Asian range (3968–4000) into London, and hawkish Fedspeak drove the NY-open breakdown to a 3852.50 day low. The rebound stalled at the 3887.60 range high, just under the 38.2% of the NY drop fib. Late in the NY session price sits below the ema20 at 3881.20 and the ema50 at 3900.69, pressing the 3872.19 late low with RSI(14) at 38.3 and ATR compressing to 694 pips.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,881.20, 3,887.60, 3,900.69
What it said to watch
Close below the 3865.71 swing low exposes the 3852.50 day low, the yearly-low area
Close above the 3887.60 range high breaks the lower-high sequence; the ema50 near 3900 is the next cap
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Base above yearly low, capped under 38.2% retrace.
Gold flushed from 3948 to a fresh yearly low at 3852.50 during NY hours as hawkish Fed repricing and a firm USD weighed. It then based in a 3865–3888 range, with the bounce high stalling just under the 38.2% of the breakdown fib. Late NY sees price slip back below the ema20 at 3881.93, RSI(14) at 36.3 and ATR compressing to 728 pips.
Support: 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,881.93, 3,887.60, 3,901.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3865.71 swing low breaks the post-flush base and exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
Close above the 3887.60 bounce high clears the 38.2% breakdown fib and opens the ema50 at 3901.77
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
Hawkish-Fed liquidation through NY hours took gold from 3936 to a 3852.5 yearly low. The rebound stalled at 3887.6, the post-low high, short of the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop near 3892. In late NY trade price has slipped back under ema20 (3882.9) and broken the rising-lows line from 3865.7, with RSI rolling over to 37.8 and ATR compressing to 762 pips from 1229.
Support: 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,882.90, 3,887.60, 3,902.96
What it said to watch
Close below the 3865.7 swing low exposes the 3852.5 yearly low
Reclaiming ema20 and the 3887.6 post-low high would negate the broken rising-lows read; ema50 at 3903 caps above
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday PPI
Rising lows under 3887.60 range top after 3852.50 session low.
Hawkish Fed repricing drove an NY-session flush from 3948 to a 3852.50 session low near the yearly low. Rising lows at 3865.71 and the 3875.73 swing low have since built under a 3887.60 range top, close to the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff. Price sits just under the ema20 with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR(14) contracting to 765 pips in late NY trade.
Support: 3,875.73, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,887.60, 3,904.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3887.60 range top and 38.2% fib exposes the ema50 at 3904.11
Break of the 3875.73 swing low and the rising lows line puts the 3865.71 prior low back in play
Loss of the 3852.50 session low would extend the downtrend below the yearly low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, rebound stalling in late NY · RSI 46 · price 3,882.20
Higher lows off 3852.50 yearly low, tightening 3875–3888 range under bounce high.
NY session flushed from 3948 to a yearly low at 3852.50 on post-CPI dollar strength and hawkish Fedspeak. The rebound has since run in a 3875–3888 range with higher lows on rising support, and supply is capping at the 3887.60 bounce high just under the 38.2% retracement of the NY selloff. Price is pinned to a flattening EMA20 with the EMA50 overhead at 3905.09, RSI(14) at 45.9 after recovering from 27.7, and ATR(14) contracting to 786 pips.
Support: 3,875.73, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,887.60, 3,905.09, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3887.60 bounce high and 38.2% fib opens the ema50 at 3905.09 and the 3909.22 lower high
Break of rising support and the 3875.73 swing low puts the 3865.71 higher low and the 3852.50 yearly low back in play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next high-impact test for the yearly low
Higher lows under a 3887.6 bounce high after a $100 NY drop.
Gold broke down from 3955 during the first hours of NY on post-CPI dollar strength and hit 3852.50 at 15:15 UTC, right at the yearly low. Late NY has since built higher lows at 3865.7 and 3877.9 beneath the 3887.6 bounce high, with price sitting on the ema20 and the ema50 overhead at 3905.9. RSI(14) has recovered to 47 from 21.5, and ATR(14) has compressed to about $8.1 from $12.9.
Support: 3,877.93, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,887.60, 3,905.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3887.6 bounce high exposes the ema50 near 3905.9, the next test inside the NY drop fib
Break of the 3877.9 higher low and the rising higher-low trendline ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold 3852.5 confirms a fresh yearly low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
NY sell-off to 3852.50, rising lows since, capped at 3887.60.
Post-CPI dollar strength drove the NY session through the London low at 3924.62 to a yearly low at 3852.50, with RSI(14) bottoming at 17.4. The late-NY bounce has printed rising lows at the 3865.71 higher low and the 3875.73 swing low. It stalled at the 3887.60 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib of the 3955.50 sell-off. Price is hugging the ema20 at 3883.94 and holds below the ema50 at 3906.76. ATR(14) has compressed to 834.8 pips.
Support: 3,875.73, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,887.60, 3,906.76
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3875.73 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 3865.71 higher low
M15 close above the 3887.60 bounce high opens the 38.2% fib near 3891.85 and the ema50 at 3906.76
Loss of the 3852.50 yearly low resumes the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger test
Rising lows under a 3887.60 range top, below ema50.
Gold lost the Asian range low at London open and, after the US data, slid to a 3852.50 session low in early NY near the ytd low, as dollar demand and Fed hike repricing dominated. Late NY session has since printed rising lows at 3865.71, 3870.26 and the 3875.73 swing low under a 3887.60 range top. Price sits fractionally below the ema20 and well under the ema50, RSI(14) has recovered from 17.4 to 44.3, and ATR(14) has compressed to 873 pips.
Support: 3,875.73, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,887.60, 3,907.66, 3,924.62
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3887.60 range top clears the fib 38.2% at 3891.85 and opens the ema50 near 3907.66
A recovery through the ema50 brings the broken london low at 3924.62 into play
Break of the 3875.73 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 3865.71 higher low, then the 3852.50 ytd low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY flag bounce · RSI 41 · price 3,879.22
Gold broke below the Asian range in London. The NY slide accelerated from 13:00 UTC to a 3852.50 session low near the YTD low as dollar demand dominated, taking RSI(14) to 17 before it recovered to 41. Late NY has built a flag of rising lows under the 3887.60 bounce high, which sits near the 38.2% retrace. Price holds below ema20 at 3883.97 and ema50 at 3908.67, and ATR has compressed to 884 pips.
Support: 3,875.73, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,883.97, 3,887.60, 3,908.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3875.73 rising low breaks the flag and exposes the 3865.71 swing low, then the 3852.50 session low
Close above the 3887.60 bounce high and the 38.2% retrace opens the path toward ema50 at 3908.67
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI follows Friday 13:30 UTC
Post-sell-off consolidation under ema20, rising lows off 3852.50.
Gold lost the Asian range low near 3968 into London, and the NY open extended the slide to a 3852.50 session low as DXY hit 19-month highs on Fed hike repricing. Late NY has carved rising lows from 3870, but the bounce stalled at the 3887.60 bounce high, just shy of the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off. Price is capped under the ema20 at 3884.42, RSI(14) has recovered from 17 to 42 and ATR is compressing to 917 pips.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,884.42, 3,887.60, 3,909.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below 3870 breaks the rising lows and puts the 3852.50 session low, near the YTD low, back in play
A close above the 3887.60 bounce high and the 38.2% fib opens the path to the ema50 near 3910
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with US PPI due Fri 13:30 UTC
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after flush · RSI 43 · price 3,879.04
Gold's NY-session flush cut through the 3924 London low and printed a ytd low at 3852.50 as post-CPI dollar strength and hike repricing dominated. Price has since built a late-NY consolidation between the 3865.71 range low and the 3887.60 range high with higher lows. The flattening ema20 at 3884.81 is capping closes, while the ema50 at 3911.04 keeps falling. RSI(14) has recovered to 43 from 16.7, and ATR(14) has contracted to about 931 pips ($9.3).
Support: 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,884.81, 3,887.60, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3887.60 range high and ema20 opens the 38.2% fib near 3892 and the 3909.22 swing high
Loss of the 3865.71 range low breaks the higher lows line and puts the 3852.50 ytd low back in play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, then Friday PPI at 13:30 UTC; any 50bp December endorsement could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range low at 3968.75. NY then extended the slide to a 3852.50 day low, at the YTD low, as post-CPI dollar strength and hike repricing dominated. Late-NY bounce has printed higher lows at 3865.71 and 3870.26, with RSI(14) recovering from 15.6 to 43.9 and ATR compressing. Price sits just below the ema20 at 3885.03 and the 3887.60 bounce high, under the 38.2% fib of the 3955.50–3852.50 drop.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,885.03, 3,887.60, 3,912.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above 3887.60 bounce high and the ema20 opens the 3912 ema50
Break of the 3870.26 higher low undercuts the rising lows line and exposes the 3852.50 day low
Monthly Budget Statement in 13m and Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read; PPI Fri 13:30 UTC
The NY session sell-off on the hawkish Fed repricing and firm dollar printed a 3852.50 ytd low. RSI(14) has since recovered from 15.6 to 41.9. Late in NY, price is compressing in a 3865–3885 band with higher lows off the swing low, capped at the ema20 near 3885 and below the ema50 at 3913, inside the 23.6–38.2% zone of the NY sell-off fib.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,885.15, 3,909.22, 3,913.35
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3885 ema20 opens the 3909 lower high and the ema50 at 3913
Break of the higher-low line near 3870 and the 3865.71 swing low exposes the 3852.50 ytd low
Fed's Schmid now and Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) ~972 pips ($9.7)
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY flush · RSI 41 · price 3,879.69
Post-low consolidation 3865–3885 with higher lows, capped at ema20.
NY session broke the 3924 London low and flushed to a 3852.50 ytd low as post-CPI dollar demand and hawkish Fed repricing extended, with RSI(14) recovering from a 15.6 extreme to 41.2. Price has since built a 3865.7–3885 range with a higher low at 3870, stalling just under ema20 at 3885.5 near the 23.6% of the NY drop fib.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,885.53, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 and the 3885 range top opens the 38.2% NY drop fib near 3892, then the 3909 bounce high and ema50 at 3914.6
Loss of the 3870 higher low and 3865.7 range low puts the 3852.50 ytd low back in play
Fed's Schmid (18:30 UTC) and Williams (23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read, especially any backing for a 50bp December hike
ATR(14) easing to 1018 pips (~$10) from 1314 shows compression inside the range
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after capitulation leg · RSI 36 · price 3,875.24
Gold extended its post-CPI liquidation. London broke below the 3968–4000 Asian range, and NY accelerated the slide after the data to a 3852.50 YTD low, with RSI(14) bottoming at 15.6. Late NY is now holding a 3865–3885 consolidation, the range top sitting just under the ema20 at 3886. RSI has recovered to 35.7 and ATR is contracting from 1314 to 1021 pips, about $10 per bar.
Support: 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,884.62, 3,909.22, 3,916.04
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 3884.62 range top and the ema20 (3886) opens the 38.2% selloff fib near 3892, then the 3909 lower high and the ema50 at 3916
Failure to hold the 3865.71 range low exposes the 3852.50 ytd low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) speak within the next half hour and could break the consolidation
US PPI on Fri at 13:30 UTC is the next major test of the ytd low
Lower highs intact; tight 3865–3885 consolidation after the YTD low.
The NY session extended the post-CPI, rates-driven liquidation through the jobless claims release to a fresh ytd low at 3852.50. RSI(14) bottomed near 16 and has recovered to 35.5. Price has since compressed between a 3865.71 higher low and the 3884.62 bounce high, capped under a falling EMA20 (3887.29) near the 23.6% of the London high–ytd low selloff fib, with ATR easing to 1058 pips.
Support: 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,884.62, 3,887.29, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3884.62 bounce high and ema20 at 3887.29 opens the 3909.22 lower high
Break of the 3865.71 higher low exposes a retest of the 3852.50 ytd low
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) speak within the hour and could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams speaks at 23:30 UTC and could reset the late-session range
NY selloff to YTD low, now small higher-low bounce below ema20.
NY session extended London's slide, breaking the 3925 shelf from 13:00 UTC to the 3852.50 ytd low as the hot-CPI yield and dollar push kept gold offered. The bounce off that low has printed a higher low at 3865.71 and a bounce high at 3884.62, with bullish RSI divergence from the 15.6 trough. Price is still below the ema20 at 3892.01, with the 3909.22 lower high and the 38.2% NY selloff fib near 3889 overhead. ATR has expanded to ~$11.80.
Support: 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,884.62, 3,892.01, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3909.22 lower high breaks the NY selloff sequence
Loss of the 3865.71 higher low and the rising lows line puts the 3852.50 ytd low back in play
Rejection at the ema20 (3892.01) or the 3884.62 bounce high keeps the downtrend read intact
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could shift this read, Williams at 23:30 UTC
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major volatility risk
Lower highs and lows; post-low bounce capped near 3878.
London lost the 3968–4000 Asian range, and NY extended the hot-CPI and yields liquidation to a 3852.5 session low near the YTD low. The lower low came with a mild bullish rsi divergence (17.4 vs 15.6). The bounce off the low stalled at the 3878.62 bounce high, still below ema20 at 3893.37, with RSI(14) at 31.7.
Support: 3,865.71, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,878.62, 3,893.37, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
A close above the 3878.62 bounce high exposes ema20 at 3893.37, near the 38.2% of the selloff fib
Failure to hold the 3865.71 pullback low reopens the 3852.5 session low; a break there is a fresh lower low
The 3909.22 lower high is the structural cap; a close above it breaks the lower-high chain
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could shift this read on any 50bp December hike endorsement
ATR(14) near $11.6 per bar, off its peak, as volatility eases after the low
Lower highs and lower lows; NY bounce off 3852.50 capped below ema20.
Gold slid hard from the 13:30 UTC start of NY hours, cutting through the 3924 London low to a 3852.50 ytd low as hot-CPI hike pricing and 5% yields kept the pressure on. The bounce has stalled at the 3878.62 bounce high, still under the ema20 at 3895.66, with no recovery of the 3909.22 lower high. RSI(14) has climbed to 32.7 from 15.6 and ATR has eased to 1187 pips from 1314, so the post-London-close tape is pausing rather than turning.
Support: 3,863.82, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,878.62, 3,895.66, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
A close above the 3878.62 bounce high and the ema20 at 3895.66 would print the first higher high since the selloff; the lower highs trendline sits near 3888
A break of the 3863.82 bounce low exposes the 3852.50 ytd low, and acceptance below it extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 3909.22 lower high, near the 50% of the ny leg fib at 3904, invalidates the downtrend read
Fedspeak (Goolsbee now, Daly 18:10 and Schmid 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; US PPI follows Fri 13:30 UTC
Lower highs from 3955.5; NY selloff low 3852.5 followed by stepping-up lows.
Gold's post-CPI liquidation extended in NY. Price broke London's 3924.6 low after jobless claims and printed a 3852.5 session low near the YTD low, with yields and the dollar firm. The rebound to 3878 shows lows stepping up and RSI(14) recovering to 33.6 from 15.6, a mild bullish divergence, but price is still below the ema20 at 3897.9 and the lower-highs line; ATR(14) is 1229 pips.
Support: 3,863.80, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,885.00, 3,897.90, 3,909.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3885 breakdown level and the ema20 at 3897.9 would bring the 50% NY selloff fib near 3900 and the 3909.2 bounce high into play
Loss of the 3863.8 higher low and a break of the 3852.5 YTD low resumes the downtrend
Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC (14 min), then Daly and Schmid: any 50bp December endorsement could reignite the selloff
Lower-highs trendline from 3955.5 caps the bounce while intact
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range lost in London, YTD low tagged in NY.
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the slide from the 3955 swing to a 3852.5 YTD low, a move of roughly $103, as post-CPI rate repricing dominated and the soft claims print was ignored. RSI(14) is oversold at 28.7 and held a marginally higher low against the 3885 prior low, but the late-NY bounce from the YTD low still sits below the ema20, the 3909 swing high and the lower-highs line.
Support: 3,863.80, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,885.00, 3,900.12, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
Fed's Goolsbee in ~28 min could materially shift this read, with Daly and Schmid following
An M15 close below the 3852.5 YTD low confirms another lower-low; losing the 3863.8 micro low first weakens the bounce
A reclaim of the 3885 prior low and the lower-highs line puts the ema20 at 3900 and the 3909 swing high in play, near the 38.2–50% retracement of the NY drop
ATR of ~1243 pips ($12.4) is elevated; US PPI on Friday is the next major risk
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce off the low · RSI 28 · price 3,870.41
Lower highs and lower lows since the 3955.50 high; Asian range broken lower.
Gold extended its post-CPI liquidation through London and into NY. It broke below the 3968.75 Asian range low and printed a fresh ytd low at 3852.50 in the first hours of NY, with 5% yields and a firm DXY behind the move. RSI(14) at 27.7 is oversold, and it marks a slightly higher low at 3852.50 than at the 3885 prior low, a minor bullish divergence. The current bounce sits below the ema20 at 3903.28, with ATR(14) expanded to 1265.9 pips per bar.
Support: 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,885.00, 3,903.28, 3,909.22
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 3885 prior low would undo the latest breakdown and bring the ema20 at 3903.28 into view
The 50% fib of the NY selloff (~3904) aligns with the ema20; the 3909.22 bounce high and the lower-high line from 3955.50 cap rallies above that
Failure to hold the 3852.50 ytd low would extend the lower-low chain
Goolsbee speaks in 44 min (16:30 UTC), followed by Daly and Schmid. Any endorsement of a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from London into NY; price below ema20 and ema50.
Gold extended the London selloff through the NY open. It broke the 3,883 prior low after the 13:30 UTC claims data and set a session low at 3,852.56 as the dollar held near 19-month highs. Lower highs at 3,955 and 3,909 keep the downtrend chain intact, while RSI(14) at 21.5 is oversold and printed a higher low against the new price low, a bullish divergence, with ATR(14) expanded to 1,290 pips.
Support: 3,852.56, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,883.06, 3,906.94, 3,924.62
What it said to watch
A break below the 3,852.56 session low and the 3,850 round number extends the lower-low chain.
A recovery above the 3,883 prior low, then the ema20 at 3,906.94, would test the lower-high trendline. The 50% selloff fib sits near 3,904.
A reclaim of the 3,924.62 london low would invalidate the intraday downtrend read.
Fed's Goolsbee speaks at 16:30 UTC (~1h), with Daly and Schmid later. These speeches could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since London; NY extended the leg to fresh session lows.
Gold broke the Asian range low near 3969 during London, then accelerated through 3900 into the NY open as the strong dollar and hot-CPI hike pricing weighed, printing a 3854.82 session low. The 3909 and 3904 lower highs cap the leg, price sits below a falling ema20 at 3911.87, and RSI(14) at 17.4 is deeply oversold with ATR expanded to 1314 pips (about $13 per bar).
Support: 3,854.82, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,885.00, 3,909.22, 3,911.87
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3854.82 session low and the 3850 round number extends the lower-low chain
M15 close back above the 3885 shelf breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 3909 lower high and ema20 at 3911.87
A move through the lower highs trendline would mark the first structural shift since the NY open
Fed's Goolsbee in ~74 min (16:30 UTC), then Daly and Schmid; any 50bp endorsement could extend this selloff fib leg, a dovish tone risks a sharp oversold bounce
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range low.
London broke the Asian range low at 3968.75, and the NY open extended the slide after jobless claims as DXY held near 19-month highs. That leaves lower highs at 3955.50, 3948.57 and 3909.22 and a fresh session low at 3866.21, with price below the ema20 at 3917.87. RSI(14) at 20.3 is oversold and above its 15.6 trough at the 3885 prior low, a bullish divergence against the lower low, while ATR has expanded to 1272.7 pips.
Support: 3,866.21, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,885.00, 3,909.22, 3,917.87
What it said to watch
A break below the 3866.21 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3850 round number.
An M15 close back above the 3885 prior low and the 3900 fib 38.2% would point to a short-covering bounce.
A close above the 3909.22 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence. The ema20 sits just above at 3917.87.
Fed speakers Barr (now), Goolsbee (16:30 UTC) and Daly (18:10 UTC) could materially shift USD and this read.
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, selling accelerating into NY · RSI 24 · price 3,886.95
Lower highs and lower lows, retesting the session low.
Selling accelerated into the US jobless claims release, taking gold through the london low at 3924.62 and the 3900 round number to a session low of 3883.06 with the USD near 19-month highs. The NY bounce stalled at 3909.22, the bounce high near the 38.2% of the 3955–3883 fib. Price is back on the lows with RSI(14) oversold at 24.4 and ATR expanding to 1188.5 pips.
Support: 3,883.06
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,909.22, 3,924.62
What it said to watch
A M15 close below the 3883.06 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 3909.22 bounce high and the 38.2% of the 3955–3883 fib would mark the first higher high since London
Reclaiming the 3924.62 london low, near the ema20 at 3922.9, would neutralise the NY breakdown
Fed's Barr and US Existing Home Sales in 14 min, then Goolsbee and Daly later in the NY session, could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, first bounce off session low · RSI 30 · price 3,901.06
Lower highs and lows; NY drop broke London low, bounce capped below 38.2%.
Gold extended its slide in the first hours of NY as the USD held near 19-month highs and yields stayed close to 5%. The move broke the London low at 3924.62 and the 3900 round number, printing a session low at 3883.06. RSI(14) has lifted from 15.6 to 29.8, but the bounce high at 3909.21 stalled under the 38.2% fib with ATR expanding to roughly $11.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,883.06
Resistance: 3,909.21, 3,924.62, 3,926.66
What it said to watch
Fed's Barr and US Existing Home Sales in ~30 min could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 3900 round number and a break of the 3883.06 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 3909.21 bounce high puts the London low at 3924.62 and the ema20 near 3927 in play
Acceptance back above the london low/ema20 zone (61.8% fib area) invalidates the breakdown read
Goolsbee, Daly and Schmid speak later in NY hours; a hawkish 50bp tone would add USD pressure
Lower highs from 4,000.45 Asia peak; NY flush to a fresh session low.
London broke the Asian range low and NY extended the slide as post-CPI USD strength persisted. The 13:00–14:00 UTC flush cut through the 3,924.62 london low into a 3,883.06 session low. RSI(14) at 16.7 is deeply oversold with ATR at 1,078.6 pips ($10.79), and the forming bar is bouncing back to the 3,900 psych level.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,883.06
Resistance: 3,924.62, 3,929.12, 3,955.50
What it said to watch
A break below the 3,883.06 session low extends the lower-low chain
A reclaim of the 3,924.62 london low and the ema20 at 3,929.12 would neutralise the NY breakdown read
The lower-high trendline from 4,000.45 through the 3,955.50 london high caps the structure while intact
Barr and Existing Home Sales at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC: Fedspeak endorsing a 50bp hike could reaccelerate the slide
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 16 · price 3,888.92
Lower highs and lower lows, Asian range broken lower.
Gold lost the Asian range low near 3969 at the London open. It sold off again in the first hour of NY after jobless claims, cutting through the 3900 round number to a session low at 3885 as post-CPI USD strength held. RSI(14) at 15.6 is deeply oversold and ATR has expanded to 1061 pips. Price sits below both EMAs, with the 3924.62 london low and the ema20 at 3933.14 overhead under a line of lower highs.
Support: 3,885.00
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,924.62, 3,933.14
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 3885 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 3900 round number would mark the first pause in the NY leg
A reclaim of the 3924.62 london low and the ema20 near 3933 tests the lower highs line and the 50% retrace of the swing high fib
Fed speakers Hammack (now), Barr at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 19 · price 3,895.66
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian and London lows broken.
London broke below the Asian range low at 3968.75. The first hour of NY then cut through the London low at 3924.62 and the 3900 psych level, with the post-CPI USD bid intact and a 200K claims print giving no relief. Lower highs at 4000.45 and 3955.50 cap the move, RSI(14) at 18.8 is deeply oversold, and ATR(14) has expanded to 1004.6 pips with price well below the ema20 at 3937.68.
Support: 3,894.07
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,924.62, 3,937.68
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the session low at 3894.07 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming 3900 psych and the London low at 3924.62 would mark the NY break as a false break
A retrace toward the 50% of the drop from the 3955.50 swing high would test the fib zone near 3925
M15 close above the ema20 at 3937.68 and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the downtrend read
Hammack speaks at 14:00 UTC and Barr at 15:00 UTC; hawkish 50bp talk could extend the move
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into data · RSI 26 · price 3,921.14
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4000.45 Asian high; fresh session low printed.
London broke the Asian range low at 3968.75 and the $3,950 area, extending the post-CPI slide on a firm USD. Supply capped the 3955.50 lower high, and the 13:00 UTC bar spiked to 3948 into the ema20 and lower-high line before fading to a fresh session low at 3922.79. RSI(14) at 26 is oversold, and its low is higher than the 20.6 print at the 09:00 UTC low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 3,921.14, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,932.16, 3,955.50
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 3921.14 session low exposes the 3900 round number
M15 close back above the 3932.16 prior low neutralises the latest break
M15 close above the 3955.50 lower high and the ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 34 · price 3,937.74
Lower highs below broken Asian range low.
London broke the Asian range low at 3968.75 and slid to the 3924.62 london low as the USD held near 19-month highs. The rebound met rejection at the 3955.50 lower high, close to the 38.2% fib of the decline, and price is back under the ema20 (3946.91) near the 3932.16 swing low. RSI(14) is 34.4, off its 20.6 trough, and ATR(14) is 695.5 pips.
Support: 3,932.16, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,946.91, 3,955.50, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC (Hammack, Barr) could materially shift this read
A close below the 3924.62 london low extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 3955.50 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 3968.75 asian low back in view
Holding the 3932.16 swing low keeps the 3932–3955 band intact under the ema20
Lower-high/lower-low chain; bounce capped at 3955.50, price back below ema20.
Gold broke the Asian low at 3968.75 into London and slid to a London low at 3924.62, extending the post-CPI slide with the USD near 19-month highs. The bounce was rejected at a lower high of 3955.50, near the 38.2% fib of the 4000.45 to 3924.62 leg. Price has since slipped back under the ema20 at 3947.98, with RSI(14) at 33.5 and rolling over from 47.4.
Support: 3,932.16, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,947.98, 3,955.50, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the recent low at 3932.16 exposes the london low at 3924.62; a break there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 3955.50 lower high, through the descending trendline, breaks the lower-high sequence
Asian low at 3968.75 is the next cap above the lower high
Lower highs after London low; corrective bounce rejected near 50% retrace.
London broke the Asian range low near 3969 and extended the post-CPI slide through 3950 to the 3924.62 london low, with RSI(14) bottoming near 21 there. The bounce met rejection at the 3955.50 bounce high, about a 50% retrace of the London drop. Price has since slipped back below the ema20 at 3949.22 into late London, RSI(14) cooling to 36.6 and ATR(14) easing to 711.5 pips.
Support: 3,935.80, 3,924.62, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,949.22, 3,955.50, 3,963.43
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3935.80 higher low exposes the 3924.62 london low
Break of the london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3900 round number
Close back above the 3955.50 bounce high and the ema50 at 3963.43 undercuts the downtrend read
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read around the NY open
London broke the asian low at 3968.75 and slid to the 3924.62 london low as the USD held near 19-month highs on Fed hike bets. The rebound stalled at the 3955.50 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and price is back under the ema20 at 3950.15, with RSI(14) recovering from 20.6 to 39.3 and ATR easing to 698 pips ahead of the NY open.
Support: 3,942.33, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,950.15, 3,955.50, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3942.33 minor low exposes the 3924.62 london low
Close above the 3955.50 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the asian low at 3968.75 next overhead
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian low; lower highs below both EMAs.
London took out the Asian low at 3968.75 and pushed through 3950 on firm USD and Fed hike pricing, bottoming at the 3924.62 session low with RSI(14) down at 20.6. The bounce was rejected at 3955.50, near the 50% retrace, and price is back under the ema20 at 3950.83, holding a higher low at 3943.00. ATR(14) has eased to 708.8 pips (~$7.1) from 914.3.
Support: 3,943.00, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,950.83, 3,955.50, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~88 min), then Hammack at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Break of the 3943.00 higher low and bounce line exposes the 3924.62 session low
M15 close above the 3955.50 bounce high and ema20 would put the 3968.75 Asian low back in view
London broke the 3968.75 Asian low and the $3,950 handle as the USD hit 19-month highs on hike bets. That drop reached a 3924.62 session low, with RSI(14) down to 20.6. The recovery stalled at the 3955.50 bounce high, near the 50% fib and under the falling trendline, and price has slipped back below the ema20 late in London with ATR(14) at 715 pips.
Support: 3,940.69, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,955.50, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Loss of the 3940.69 higher low exposes the 3924.62 session low
M15 close above the 3955.50 bounce high and falling trendline opens a test of the 3968.75 Asian low
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows; London leg broke Asian low, bounce capped near 38.2% fib.
Around the London open gold broke the asian low at 3968.75 and the $3,950 handle. It ran to a london low at 3924.62 with RSI(14) at 20.6 as hot-CPI Fed-hike pricing extended. The recovery met rejection at a 3955.5 bounce high, at the 38.2% of the London-leg fib, and price is back below the ema20 (3952.2) and EMA50 (3966.93), with ATR easing from 914 to 734 pips.
Support: 3,946.73, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,952.20, 3,955.50, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3955.5 bounce high and ema20 reopens the asian low at 3968.75
Failure to hold the 3946.73 micro low exposes the 3924.62 london low
Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could reset the NY session range
Asian range broken lower in London; bounce capped near 38.2% retrace.
London broke the Asian range low at 3968.75 and ran to a session low at 3924.62 as the USD pressed 19-month highs on Fed hike bets. The late-London bounce stalled at 3955.50, the 38.2% level of the drop retrace from 4000.45, and price has slipped back under ema20 (3952.61) with ema50 at 3967.69. RSI(14) has recovered to 43.6 from a 20.6 low, and ATR is ~771 pips ($7.7).
Support: 3,940.69, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,952.61, 3,955.50, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3955.50 bounce high opens the 50% drop retrace near 3962.50 and the Asian low at 3968.75
Failure to hold the 3940.69 higher low exposes the 3924.62 session low
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; higher-low recovery off session low into breakdown zone.
London took out the Asian low at 3968.75 and ran to a 3924.62 session low, with post-CPI USD strength and 5% yields keeping gold heavy. The bounce since has built higher lows back above the ema20 and is testing the 50% fib near 3954 under the 3959 breakdown shelf, with the ema50 at 3968.44 above. RSI(14) has recovered from 20.6 to 47.4 and ATR is easing from 914 to 780 pips.
Support: 3,945.32, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,959.18, 3,966.38, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3959 breakdown shelf opens the 3966 swing high and the asian low / ema50 cluster near 3968
Loss of the 3945 higher low breaks the bounce trend and exposes the 3924.62 session low
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows; Asian range broken lower in London, corrective rebound underway.
London broke the Asian low at 3968.75 and extended to 3924.62 as post-CPI USD strength persisted. The late-London bounce has reached the ema20 at 3952.86, with price just below it and at the 50% fib of the London leg. RSI(14) has recovered to 46 from 20.6, ATR(14) is about $8.20 per bar, and the ema50 at 3969.03 sits on the broken asian low.
Support: 3,940.70, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,952.86, 3,968.75, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the ema20 and the 50% fib near 3954 opens the path to the asian low and ema50 around 3969
Rejection at the ema20 and a break below the 3940.7 minor low re-exposes the london low at 3924.62
A reclaim of the 4000 psych level would invalidate the downtrend read
Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
Lower highs since Asia; London broke below the Asian low and is now retracing.
London broke the Asian low at 3968.75 and flushed to a 3924.62 session low as post-CPI USD strength extended. The bounce has stalled just under the ema20 at 3952.89, near the 38.2% fib, with a rejection from 3951.14. RSI(14) has recovered to 39.4 from 20.6, price sits below both EMAs and ATR is easing from its peak.
Support: 3,935.80, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,952.89, 3,966.38, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 3952.89 and the 38.2% fib opens the 3966.38 swing high, then the 3968.75 asian low with the ema50 at 3969.71
Failure to hold the 3935.80 pullback low exposes the 3924.62 session low; a break there resumes the downtrend leg
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing from London low · RSI 40 · price 3,947.61
Asian range broken lower in London; higher lows forming off 3924.62.
London broke below the Asian low at 3968.75, extending the post-CPI, USD-led slide to a London low at 3924.62 as RSI(14) bottomed at 20.6. The bounce has retraced about 38% of the London leg into the 3950 area, with price still under the ema20 at 3953.64 and the ema50, and ATR elevated at 844 pips.
Support: 3,940.69, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,953.64, 3,959.09, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 3953.64 and the 3959 breakdown point would mark a deeper retracement toward the Asian low at 3968.75
A break of the 3940.69 higher low on the recovery lows line reopens the 3924.62 London low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs intact, micro higher lows on the bounce.
London broke the Asian low at 3968.75 and the $3,950 area, extending the post-CPI USD-led slide to a london low at 3924.62 with RSI(14) bottoming at 20.6. The bounce has carved a higher low at 3935.80 and is now testing the 50% fib of the 3966.38–3924.62 leg near 3945, still below the ema20 at 3954.39. ATR(14) is 867 pips (~$8.7) and expanding.
Support: 3,935.80, 3,924.62
Resistance: 3,954.39, 3,966.38, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 3954.39 and the lower highs trendline challenges the downtrend; the 3966.38 lower high and the asian low at 3968.75 sit above
Failure to hold the 3935.80 higher low reopens the 3924.62 london low
Rejection at the 50% fib near 3945 keeps the bounce corrective
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia; Asian range low broken at London open.
London broke the Asian low near 3969.89 and extended the post-CPI, USD-driven slide to a session low of 3924.62. The bounce has reached 3941 and RSI(14) has recovered from 20.6 to 34.9, while ATR is at 902 pips (~$9 per bar). Price holds below both EMAs, with the 3950 psych level, the ema20 at 3955.49 and the falling trendline overhead.
Support: 3,924.62, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,950.00, 3,955.49, 3,969.89
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 3950 psych level and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3924.62 session low extends the London leg toward the 3900 round number
Reclaiming the Asian low at 3969.89 would invalidate the range-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range low gave way.
Gold broke below the Asian low at 3968.75 late in Asia and extended through 3950 psych into a London low at 3924.62. The move came as post-CPI USD strength pushed DXY to a 19-month high. The latest bar bounced to 3938, with RSI(14) lifting to 31.4 from 20.6, while price stays below a falling ema20 (3956.97) and ema50 (3974.08) and ATR expands to 914 pips.
Support: 3,924.62, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,950.00, 3,956.97, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
A reclaim of 3950 psych and the ema20 at 3956.97 would break the lower-high trendline and stall the selloff; that zone is also the 38.2–50% selloff fib
Failure to hold the London low at 3924.62 extends the lower-low chain toward the 3900 round number
A move back above the Asian low at 3968.75 invalidates the range-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating in London · RSI 21 · price 3,927.09
Asian range broken lower, lower highs into fresh session low.
London broke the Asian range (4000.45 high, 3968.75 low) to the downside, then cleared the 3950 psych level. The post-CPI slide extended on firm USD to a session low at 3924.62, with lower highs intact and price below both EMAs. RSI(14) at 20.7 is deeply oversold and ATR has expanded to 880 pips: the move is stretched, but no base has formed yet.
Support: 3,924.62, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,950.00, 3,958.96, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 3950 psych and the ema20 at 3958.96 would break the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 3924.62 session low exposes the 3900 round number
Return above the Asian low at 3968.75 would mark the range break as a false break
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain below the broken Asian range; new session low at 3,924.62.
London broke the 3,968.75 Asian low at the open and sold through $3,950. A chain of lower highs has stepped price down to a 3,924.62 session low as post-CPI USD strength extends. RSI(14) at 20.6 is oversold, ATR has expanded to 876.5 pips ($8.77), and price trades below the ema20 at 3,962.14 and the EMA50.
Support: 3,924.62, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,954.95, 3,962.14, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 3,955 broken low, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-session low leg, would stall the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 3,924.62 session low exposes the 3,900 round number
M15 close above the lower highs trendline and the ema20 at 3,962 marks the first break in the sequence; the asian low at 3,968.75 sits just above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower into London.
London extended the late-Asia break of the Asian low at 3968.75, slicing through the $3,950 psych level to a session low of 3940.65 as post-CPI USD strength keeps gold heavy. The 07:45 UTC lower high at 3966.38 sits at the ema20 (3965.67). RSI(14) is oversold at 25.3 and ATR has expanded to 833 pips.
Support: 3,940.65
Resistance: 3,950.00, 3,966.38, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3940.65 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of 3950 psych would mark the break as a potential false break
M15 close above the 3966.38 lower high and 3968.75 asian low invalidates the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~4.7h) and Fed speakers after could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; London broke below the Asian range low.
London open broke the Asian range low at 3968.75 and extended to a session low of 3945.29, through the $3,950 pivot flagged in the digest, as post-CPI USD strength keeps gold heavy. Lower highs at 3983.14 and 3966.38 cap the slide, with price below both EMAs, RSI(14) oversold at 27.4 and ATR expanding to 793 pips.
Support: 3,945.29
Resistance: 3,954.95, 3,966.38, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3945.29 session low extends the lower-low chain
The 3954.95 prior low now sits overhead as the first level to watch for rejection or reclaim
M15 close above the 3966.38 lower high and the 3968.75 Asian low (ema20 3968.22, near the 61.8% fib of the London drop) breaks the lower-highs sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in early London; lower highs since 4000.45.
Early London broke the Asian low at 3968.75 and extended the slide from the 4000.45 Asia high to a 3954.95 session low, with post-CPI USD strength keeping gold heavy. Supply capped the 3966.38 bounce high, and price sits below the ema20 (3970.54) and ema50. RSI(14) is 33.5 after a brief dip to 27.2, ATR(14) is 747 pips, and the $3,950 psych level sits just under the session low.
Support: 3,954.95, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,966.38, 3,968.75
What it said to watch
Close below the 3950 psych level extends the slide and the lower-low chain
Recovery back above the 3968.75 asian low and the ema20 negates the range break
Push through the 3966.38 bounce high would test the lower highs trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~5h) and Fed speakers after could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce off lows · RSI 39 · price 3,962.16
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since the 4000.45 Asian high.
London open broke the Asian low at 3968.75 and fell to a 3954.95 London low, just above the $3,950 psych level, as post-CPI USD strength and Fed hike bets keep gold heavy. Price is below the ema20 (3971.95) and ema50 (3983.46), with lower highs intact since the 4000.45 Asian high. RSI(14) has rebounded to 39.3 from a sub-30 dip, and ATR has expanded to about $7.44.
Support: 3,954.95, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,968.75, 3,971.95, 3,983.14
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 3968.75 asian low and the ema20 at 3971.95 would weaken the range break read and expose the 3983.14 swing high
A break below the 3954.95 london low exposes the 3950 psych level flagged in the macro digest
Lower highs trendline from the 4000.45 Asian high caps rebounds near 3974
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 27 · price 3,957.40
Lower highs through Asia; London open broke the Asian range low.
London open broke the Asian low at 3968.75 and printed a 3954.95 session low as the post-CPI USD bid kept gold under pressure. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.2, and price is below a falling ema20 (3972.69) and ema50 (3984.22). Asian lower highs from 4000.45 to 3983.14 define the descending highs line; ATR(14) is 726 pips.
Support: 3,954.95, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,968.75, 3,972.69, 3,983.14
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the Asian low at 3968.75 would turn the London break into a false break
Acceptance below the 3954.95 session low exposes the 3950 round number
A close above the 3983.14 swing high and the descending highs line breaks the lower-high chain; retracement of the Asian high-to-session low leg sits in between
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4000 rejection, Asian range low broken.
Gold broke below the Asian low at 3968.75 ahead of London open and printed a session low near 3959, with RSI(14) at 29.8. Price sits under the ema20 at 3974 and the EMA50 at 3985. Lower highs since the 4000 rejection in Asia persist as post-CPI USD strength keeps bullion heavy; ATR(14) is about 733 pips ($7.3).
Support: 3,958.90, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,968.75, 3,974.36, 3,983.14
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 3968.75 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 3959 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 3950 psych
The ema20 at 3974 is the first cap on any bounce; a close above the lower-highs line and the 3983 swing high negates the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open broke below the Asian range low; lower-high chain from 4000.45.
London open took out the Asian low at 3968.75 and printed a session low at 3959.22. The post-CPI USD bid keeps gold under $4,000. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 30, ATR near 728 pips is expanding, and the lower-high chain from 4000.45 through the 3983.14 lower high is intact.
Support: 3,959.22, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,968.75, 3,975.81, 3,983.14
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 3968.75 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 3959.22 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3950 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 3975.81 and the lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~6h) and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 34 · price 3,969.53
Asian range broken lower; London open retesting the Asian low.
Gold's Asian drop off the 4000.45 Asian high printed a chain of lower highs. The last Asian bar broke the 3968.75 Asian low to a 3962.42 session low, extending the post-CPI slide as the USD holds near its highs. The London-open bar is back at 3968.75, with price below ema20 (3977.37) and ema50 (3987.38), RSI(14) 33.5 short of oversold and ATR near $6.8.
Support: 3,968.75, 3,962.42, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,977.37, 3,983.14, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3962.42 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3950 round number
M15 close above the 3977.37 ema20 and the falling trendline near the 3983.14 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Rejection at the 50% retrace of the Asian drop (~3981) keeps the downtrend intact
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 4000.45 pressing the Asian low.
Gold's post-CPI slide broke $4,000 in yesterday's NY session, and the Asia rebound was rejected at 4000.45. Lower highs at 3989.95, 3985.06 and 3983.14 have pushed price back to the 3969.89 swing low and 3968.75 Asian low ahead of London open. Price sits below the ema20 (3978.6) and ema50 (3988.27), with RSI 38.5 and ATR about 658 pips.
Support: 3,969.89, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,978.60, 3,983.14, 3,988.27
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3968.75 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 3983.14 lower high breaks the descending lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the ema20 at 3978.6, then the ema50 at 3988.27, would mark a shift in short-term momentum
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and the Fedspeak that follows could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 3,977.02
Lower highs off the asia high, asia low defended twice.
Yesterday's NY session broke 4,030 and then 4,000 as the post-CPI dollar bid held. Late Asia has carved a 3968.75–4000.45 range with a descending trendline of lower highs off the asia high. Price sits below the ema20 (3979.34) and ema50 (3988.95), RSI 45. The latest bounce from the 3969–3970 area, the second test of the asia low, was rejected at 3983.04.
Support: 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,979.34, 3,983.04, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3968.75 asia low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 3983.04 lower high and the descending trendline weakens the downtrend read, with 4000.45 asia high next
London open in ~1.5h is the first test of the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Hammack at 14:00 could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing above the 3970 base · RSI 47 · price 3,980.12
Lower highs pressing into a flat Asian low near 3969-3970, late Asia session.
Gold stays heavy below $4,000 after the hot CPI. The Asia session ran 3968.75–4000.45, and the 4000.45 asian high marked a rejection at the round number, followed by a chain of lower highs. A second test of the asian low at 05:30 UTC drew a bounce to a 3983.04 swing high. Price sits just below ema20 (3979.49) and ema50 (3989.40), RSI(14) 47.3 is up from 35, and ATR is about 679 pips ($6.8).
Support: 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,983.04, 3,989.40, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3968.75 asian low confirms a lower low beneath the 3970 base
Close above the 3983.04 swing high and ema50 at 3989.40 breaks the lower-highs line
London open within the hour can extend or break the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from the 4000.45 Asian high, pressing the Asian low.
Late in the Asia session, gold has faded from the 4000.45 Asian high in a chain of lower highs capped by a falling ema20 at 3979.49. The 3969.89 swing low now sits just above the 3968.75 Asian low. The tone stays heavy after Tuesday's hot CPI print, and RSI(14) at 35.4 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,979.49, 3,985.06, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3968.75 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the 3950 round number as the next reference
Recovery through the ema20 and the 3985 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 4000.45 Asian high back into view
London open in about 75 minutes could break the Asian range either way
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 3,973.47
Lower-high chain pressing the Asian low.
Asia bounced from the 3968.75 Asian low but was rejected just above the 4000 round number. A falling trendline of lower highs has since walked price back to that low, with RSI(14) at 35.2, price below both EMAs and ATR(14) at 642 pips (~$6.4) heading into London open. The USD bid from Tuesday's hot CPI keeps gold heavy under $4,000.
Support: 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,980.32, 3,985.06, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3968.75 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence beyond Wednesday's NY selloff
Close back above the ema20 (3980.32) and the 3985 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4000 round number would neutralise the Asia rejection
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak later could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into Asia · RSI 38 · price 3,973.97
Lower highs pressing a flat 3972-3974 base.
Gold lost $4,000 during NY hours on hot-CPI yield pressure. The Asia session's bounce was rejected at the asian high of 4000.45, and four lower highs have since compressed price onto a swing low base near 3972.7. Price sits below the ema20 (3981.24) and ema50 (3991.78), with RSI(14) at 37.8, short of oversold, and ATR(14) at 657.9 pips.
Support: 3,972.71, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,981.24, 3,991.78, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3968.75 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Close back above the lower-highs trendline and ema20 near 3981 breaks the Asia compression
ema50 at 3991.78 and the 4000.45 asian high cap any recovery
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside Asian range, pressing session low.
Gold extends the post-CPI slide. The Asian bounce from the 3968.75 asian low met rejection at the 4000.45 asian high, and price has since printed lower highs at 3989.95 and 3985.06, holding below the ema20 (3981.97) and ema50 (3992.49). RSI(14) sits at 39 and ATR has compressed to ~662 pips ($6.6) as price presses the 3972.85 session low late in the Asia session, ahead of London.
Support: 3,972.85, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,981.97, 3,985.06, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3972.85 session low exposes the 3968.75 asian low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 3985.06 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 at 3981.97 would signal the downtrend losing grip
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound faded · RSI 39 · price 3,974.60
Lower highs under trendline, pressing session lows.
Early Asia's rebound from the 3968.75 asian low was rejected just above 4000 at the 4000.45 asian high. The full fade since has printed a lower high at 3988.21 under a descending trendline, with price below the ema20 (3982.65) and now pressing the 3972.85 swing low. Gold stays heavy after the hot CPI kept yields near 5%; RSI 38.7, ATR ~685 pips ($6.85).
Support: 3,972.85, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,982.65, 3,988.21, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3972.85 swing low and 3968.75 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the descending trendline and 3988.21 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend read
Reclaim of the ema20 at 3982.65 would put price back inside the mid-Asia chop
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 39 · price 3,975.13
Lower highs from 4000.45, pressing 3974 swing low.
Gold's post-CPI slide is intact. The early Asia session bounce off the 3968.75 Asian low retested $4,000 and met rejection at 4000.45. A chain of lower highs since has pressed price back onto the 3974 swing low, below both the ema20 (3983.42) and ema50 (3993.91). RSI(14) is 39 and ATR is about 709 pips ($7.09).
Support: 3,973.98, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,983.42, 3,993.91, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
Break below the 3974 swing low brings the 3968.75 Asian low back into play
M15 close above the ema20 at 3983.42 and the lower highs line weakens the downtrend read
Close back above the ema50 at 3993.91 and the 4000.45 Asian high negates the $4,000 rejection
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4000.45, higher low at 3973.98, compressing.
Gold extended the post-CPI slide through $4,000 during NY hours as yields held above 5%. Asia's bounce from the 3968.75 asia low was rejected at the $4,000 asia high, and price is now coiling around the 61.8% of that bounce. It sits between a 3973.98 higher low and lower highs capped near the ema20 at 3984.19, with RSI(14) at 42.5 and the ema50 at 3994.64 overhead.
Support: 3,973.98, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,984.19, 3,994.64, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3973.98 higher low exposes the 3968.75 asia low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of ema20 and the lower highs trendline opens the ema50 at 3994.64, then the asia high and $4,000 psych
ATR(14) near 708 pips ($7) is expanding; London open could break the Asian range either way
Jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce faded · RSI 46 · price 3,982.33
Lower highs below 4000; Asian range 3968.75–4000.45.
Gold extended the post-CPI, yield-driven slide through $4,000 in NY hours. It printed an Asia low at 3968.75, and the snap-back met rejection at the 4000 psych level, in line with the lower highs trendline. Price now sits between a 3973.98 higher low and the ema20 at 3984.68, below the ema50 at 3995.25, with RSI(14) at 45.7 after recovering from an oversold 18.8 and ATR at 717 pips and expanding.
Support: 3,973.98, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,984.68, 3,995.25, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 3995.25 and the 4000 psych level would break the lower highs trendline
Loss of the 3973.98 higher low reopens the 3968.75 Asia low
A hold under the ema20 at 3984.68 keeps the Asia rebound fib retracement deepening
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce faded · RSI 40 · price 3,979.68
Lower high at 4000.45 within the Asian range, higher low at 3973.98.
Wednesday's NY selloff broke $4,000 on hot-CPI and 5% yield pressure. Asia extended it to a 3968.75 asia low before the bounce was rejected at the 4000.45 asia high, just above the round number. Late Asia, price sits below the ema20 (3984.86) and ema50 (3995.76) with RSI(14) at 40.4, holding a swing low at 3973.98 near the 78.6% of the Asia bounce fib.
Support: 3,973.98, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,984.86, 3,995.76, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3973.98 swing low exposes the 3968.75 asia low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of ema20 at 3984.86 and ema50 at 3995.76 brings the 4000.45 asia high back into play; a close above it breaks the lower-high chain
London open may expand the Asian range; ATR(14) at 720 pips (~$7.20 per bar)
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and a heavy Fedspeak slate later in NY could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce faded · RSI 43 · price 3,981.15
Lower highs below 4000 inside 3968.75–4000.45 Asian range.
Gold extended the post-CPI slide into early Asia, reaching an asian low of 3968.75. The bounce stalled at the 4000.45 asian high and round number, and lower highs have followed since. Price sits near the 61.8% retrace of that Asia bounce, below ema20 (3985.52) and ema50 (3996.45), with a higher low at 3973.98, RSI(14) at 43.4 and ATR(14) at 716.8 pips.
Support: 3,973.98, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,985.52, 3,996.45, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3968.75 asian low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Failure to hold the 3973.98 higher low exposes the asian low into London open
Close back above ema20 at 3985.52 and the lower highs line shifts focus to ema50 and the 4000.45 asian high
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could reset the session range
Asian range 3968.75–4000.45, lower-high chain pressing range low.
Gold extended its post-CPI slide through the NY session and lost the $4,000 handle as yields held above 5%. In the Asia session, a sweep to the 3968.75 Asian low bounced, then hit rejection at the 4000.45 Asian high, and lower highs are now pressing the 3973.98 swing low. Price sits below the ema20 (3985.9) and ema50 (3997.05), and RSI(14) at 42.3 has recovered from a sub-20 reading.
Support: 3,973.98, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,985.90, 3,997.05, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3968.75 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema20 at 3985.9 and the ema50 at 3997.05 would break the lower-high chain; the 4000.45 asian high is the range top
ATR(14) has expanded to ~735 pips ($7.35), so swings across the Asian range are wide
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate (Hammack 14:00 UTC onward) could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asian bounce faded · RSI 42 · price 3,980.11
Lower highs from 4066.97; Asian bounce rejected at $4,000 handle.
Gold carried its post-CPI slide into Asia, setting an Asian low at 3968.75 with RSI(14) near 19. The bounce stalled at the $4,000 handle (Asian high 4000.45), another lower high, and price is back below the ema20 (3986.41) near the 61.8% retrace of that bounce. A fresh swing low at 3973.98 sits beneath, and ATR has expanded to ~751 pips.
Support: 3,973.98, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,986.41, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3973.98 swing low and the 3968.75 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the ema20 at 3986.41, then the 4000.45 Asian high, breaks the lower-highs line and the rejection read
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker run (Hammack, Daly, Williams) could reprice yields and this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower high capped at 4000 · RSI 36 · price 3,975.68
Lower highs from 4066.97; Asia bounce rejected at 4000 handle.
The Asia session rebound off the 3968.75 asia low stalled at the 4000 handle. The asia high at 4000.45 sat just above the ema50, and the latest bar dropped back below the ema20 to a 3973.98 swing low. That extends the lower-high chain from yesterday's 4066.97 peak, in line with the hot-CPI, 5% yield slide. RSI(14) is 36.2 after bouncing from sub-20, and ATR(14) has expanded to 743 pips (~$7.4).
Support: 3,973.98, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,987.03, 3,998.40, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3973.98 swing low exposes the 3968.75 asia low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the ema20 at 3987.03 would put the ema50 at 3998.40 and the 4000.45 asia high back in play
Price is sitting near the 78.6% retracement of the Asia leg; losing it negates the bounce
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fed speaker run from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound capped · RSI 46 · price 3,987.04
Lower highs from 4067; Asia range 3969–4000 forming with a higher low.
Gold lost the 4000 psych level during NY hours Wednesday on hot-CPI repricing and 5% yields, then dropped to the 3968.75 Asia low before an Asia rebound was rejected at 4000.45, with ema50 at 3999 just beneath. Price is now pinned just under the ema20 at 3988 above a 3978.83 higher low. RSI(14) at 45.6 is back from sub-20, and ATR(14) has expanded to ~$6.9.
Support: 3,978.83, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,988.18, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4000.45 psych negates the rejection and opens the ema50/4010 area
Break below the 3978.83 higher low brings the 3968.75 asia low back into play
Price failing to reclaim the ema20 at 3988 keeps the Asia rebound as a lower-high retracement
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers later Thursday could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling under $4,000 · RSI 44 · price 3,987.03
Lower high at 4000.45 after the 3968.75 session low; higher low at 3978.8.
Gold extended Wednesday's post-CPI slide into the 3968.75 session low at the Asia open, with RSI(14) at 18.8. The bounce was rejected at the $4,000 handle (session high 4000.45, ema50 at 3999.84). The pullback has held a 3978.8 swing low, and price is pinned just under the ema20 at 3988.35 with ATR near $7 per bar.
Support: 3,978.83, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,988.35, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 3988.35 and the 4000.45 session high, which also clears ema50, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3978.8 swing low reopens the 3968.75 session low
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker run from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4066.97; Asia rebound capped at 4000, now retracing.
Gold extended its post-CPI, yield-driven slide into the Asia session. It hit a 3968.75 asia low with RSI(14) at 18.8, then a sharp rebound was rejected at psych 4000, where the ema50 sits at 4000.42. Price is back below the ema20 at 3988.65 and holding a higher low at 3978.83, near the 61.8% of the rebound fib, with ATR(14) expanding to ~704 pips.
Support: 3,978.83, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,988.65, 4,000.45
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3978.83 higher low reopens the 3968.75 asia low
Loss of the 3968.75 asia low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the ema20 at 3988.65 puts psych 4000 and the ema50 back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 48 · price 3,984.85
Lower highs from 4067; Asia swept NY low, rebound capped at 4000.
Gold's post-CPI slide broke the $4,000 handle in NY on Wednesday as 10y yields held above 5%. Asia then swept the NY low at 3982.62 down to 3968.75, with RSI(14) at 18.8, before bouncing to an Asia high of 4000.45, where it was rejected just below the ema50 at 4001.02. Price is now back at the ema20 (3988.96) and the 50% retracement of that bounce, with ATR(14) at about 680 pips ($6.80) per bar.
Support: 3,982.62, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,988.96, 4,000.45, 4,001.02
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the ny low at 3982.62 exposes the asia low at 3968.75; a break there extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the asia high at 4000.45 and the ema50 at 4001.02 reclaims the $4,000 handle and breaks the lower-high sequence
The 61.8% retracement of the Asia bounce sits near 3980.9, just under the ny low
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate through NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4066.97; Asia V-rebound capped at 4000.
Gold extended the post-CPI slide from the 4066.97 London high, broke the late NY range low at 3982.62 and hit a 3968.75 Asia low. It then bounced sharply into a rejection at a 4000.45 session high, just under the ema50 at 4001.51 and shy of the slide's fib 38.2 at 4006.27. Price holds above the ema20 at 3988.96 with RSI(14) back at 54 from a sub-20 extreme, and ATR(14) has expanded to 663 pips.
Support: 3,988.96, 3,982.62, 3,968.75
Resistance: 4,000.45, 4,001.51, 4,006.27
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 4001.51 and the 4000 session high would point to the fib 38.2 at 4006.27
Close back below the ema20 at 3988.96 would expose the ny range low at 3982.62
Loss of the 3968.75 asia low would resume the lower-low sequence
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and a heavy Fed-speaker slate later Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4066.97; V-reversal off 3968.75 into ema50.
Early Asia briefly cleared the NY low at 3982.62 and reached 3968.75. That move drew a sharp rejection back to 3999.8, with RSI(14) recovering from 18.8 to 58.5 and ATR widening to $6.59. Price is back above the ema20 at 3988.32 but still capped by the ema50 at 4001.78 and the $4,000 handle, inside the downtrend from the 4066.97 London high that followed the hot US CPI and 5% 10y yields.
Support: 3,988.32, 3,982.62, 3,968.75
Resistance: 4,001.78, 4,006.94, 4,018.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4001.78 ema50 and 4000 opens the 4006.94 prior high, near the 38.2% fib of the selloff
Rejection under 4000 and a close back below the 3988.32 ema20 puts the 3982.62 ny low and the 3968.75 asian low back in focus
Above 4006.94, the 14:30 UTC breakdown area near 4018.78 is the next level
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; sweep and reclaim of range low.
Gold extended the post-CPI slide through the $4,000 round number during NY hours. Early in the Asia session it swept below the 3982.6 range low to a session low at 3968.75, then snapped back to 3985, with RSI(14) recovering from 18.8 to 43.4. Price is pressing the ema20 at 3986.51 under a line of falling highs, and the 3993.3 asia high sits near the 23.6% fib of the day decline.
Support: 3,982.60, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,986.51, 3,993.30, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3993.3 asia high and the falling highs line would break the lower-high sequence
Failure back below the 3982.6 range low reopens the 3968.75 session low
A reclaim of the 4000 round number, with ema50 at 4002.22, would shift the read toward a recovery
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate after it could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off Asia low · RSI 39 · price 3,982.37
Lower highs below 4000; Asia sweep of 3968.75 reclaimed.
The post-CPI slide carried through the NY open, with yields above 5% and price losing the 4000 psych handle. Early Asia flushed to the 3968.75 Asia low before a sharp reclaim to 3982, and RSI(14) recovered to 39.4 from 18.8. Price still sits below the ema20 (3986.64) and ema50 (4002.91), with the reopen high at 3993.39 and the falling tl capping the bounce.
Support: 3,978.24, 3,968.75
Resistance: 3,986.64, 3,993.39, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the reopen high at 3993.39 and the falling tl puts the 4000 psych level and the ema50 near 4003 in play
Failure to hold the prior low at 3978.24 reopens the 3968.75 Asia low
A close below the 3968.75 Asia low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; late-NY 3983–3991 range broken lower in early Asia.
Gold extended the post-CPI, yields-driven slide. It lost the $4,000 psych level during NY hours after the 14:30 UTC flush, then ranged 3983–3991. The new session opened with a rejection at 3993 and sliced through the ny lows to a 3968.75 session low. RSI(14) at 18.8 is deeply oversold, price sits below the ema20 and ema50, and the lower-highs line from 4056 still caps. ATR is about 536 pips ($5.4).
Support: 3,968.75, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,983.00, 3,987.06, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 3983 ny lows would mark the range break as a false break
Price holding below the ema20 at 3987.06 keeps the lower-highs chain intact
Failure to hold the 3968.75 session low opens the 3950 round number
Reclaim of the 4000 psych level needed to break the lower-highs line
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read