XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 26 · price 3,979.32
Lower highs and lows from 4066.97; late-NY range floor broken at Asia open.
Gold has carried the post-CPI selloff, with yields near 5%, from the 4066.97 double peak through the 4000 psych level. Price spent late NY ranging off the 3982.62 NY low. The Asia open gap to 3993 was sold straight back below that floor to a new session low at 3979.12. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.1 and both EMAs sit above price and slope lower; ATR near 492 pips shows the decline fib's swings stretching wide.
Support: 3,979.12, 3,970.00
Resistance: 3,982.62, 3,989.63, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 3982.62 ny low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 3979 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3970 round number
ema20 at 3989.63 has capped price since 4000 broke; a reclaim with 4000 psych back in view changes the read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; reopen gap faded into a fresh session low.
The London-to-NY drop from the 4066.97 high accelerated through NY as hot-CPI yields near 5% kept the dollar bid. Gold lost the 4000 handle and ground lower into the close. The reopen gap to the 3993 gap high faded and printed a fresh session low at 3981.12. RSI(14) at 26.4 is oversold but sits above its 17.1 trough while price makes the lower low, a mild bullish divergence, with ATR compressing from ~650 to ~497 pips.
Support: 3,981.12, 3,980.00
Resistance: 3,990.46, 3,993.39, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
A break below the 3981 session low and the 3980 psych level extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close back above the ema20 at 3990.46 and the 3993 gap high would ease the downtrend read
A reclaim of the 4000 handle would mark the NY break as a false break
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4066.97; tight base above 3982.62 after NY sell-off.
Gold failed twice near 4066 in London, then fell through $4,000 during NY hours as yields stayed above 5% after the hot CPI. Since the NY close, price has held in a roughly $6 band above the 3982.62 session low, below the ema20 at 3992.09. RSI(14) has recovered to 32.6 from 17.1 and ATR is contracting to 461 pips.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,992.09, 4,000.00, 4,009.08
What it said to watch
A break of the 3982.62 session low resumes the NY lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the ema20 at 3992.09 and the $4,000 psych level would break the compression; the ema50 at 4009.08 sits near the 38.2% of the selloff fib
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fedspeak slate, including Williams at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the close · RSI 33 · price 3,987.73
Lower highs from the 4066.97 London high; tight 3982–3991 base below 4000.
Gold's post-CPI selloff ran through the 4000 round number during NY hours as yields and the USD stayed bid, printing a 3982.62 session low before late-session trade compressed into a 3982–3991 band below the ema20 (3992.09). RSI(14) has lifted to 32.6 from a 17.1 trough, with a mild bullish divergence at the lower low, while ATR eases to 461 pips.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,992.09, 4,000.00, 4,006.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and back over the 4000 round number would be the first reclaim since the NY breakdown
A move through the 4006.94 swing high would break the lower-high chain; the 38.2% of the selloff fib sits near 4014.8
Break of the 3982.62 session low resumes the downtrend leg out of the base
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling after NY sell-off · RSI 33 · price 3,987.73
Lower highs from 4066.97; late-NY box 3982.62–3991 under ema20.
London faded the 4066.97 session high and NY broke the 4000 psych level as the hot CPI print and 10y yields above 5% kept gold offered. Late NY has compressed into a 3982.62–3991 box below the ema20 (3992.09). ATR is easing to 461 pips and RSI(14) has lifted to 32.6 from a 17.1 low, a mild bullish rsi divergence at the session low.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,992.09, 4,000.00, 4,009.08
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3982.62 session low extends the lower-low chain and voids the divergence
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close back above 4000 psych would break the late-NY box; ema50 at 4009.08 and the 23.6% fade fib near 4002.5 sit just above
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late-NY base · RSI 33 · price 3,987.73
Lower highs from the London high at 4066.97; post-NY consolidation 3982.6–3991 below ema20.
Gold's London-to-NY drop ran $84 off the 4066.97 high as post-CPI yield and Fed-hike pressure kept the USD bid. The 4000 psych level gave way during NY hours and the decline stalled at the 3982.62 session low. Price has since held a tight band under the ema20 at 3992.09, and RSI(14) has lifted to 32.6 from 17, a mild bullish divergence on that low.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,992.09, 4,000.00, 4,009.08
What it said to watch
Close back above the ema20 at 3992.09 and then 4000 psych would end the late-NY base below the $4,000 handle
Failure at the 3982.62 session low resumes the downtrend leg; ATR(14) at ~461 pips has been compressing
The ema50 at 4009.08 caps any Asia session rebound in the current read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers, Williams late, could shift yields and this read
22:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 33 · price 3,987.73
Lower highs and lows from the London high, now compressing in a 3982–3991 band.
London faded from the 4066.97 high and NY broke the Asian range low and the 4,000 psych handle, as the hot CPI kept yields above 5% and the USD bid. Late NY has compressed into a 3982–3991 band under the ema20, with ATR easing to 461 pips. RSI(14) has climbed from 17 to 32.6, and a marginal bullish divergence sits at the 3982.62 session low.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,992.09, 4,000.00, 4,009.08
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the ema20 at 3992.09 and the 4000 psych level would break the late-NY consolidation, with the ema50 at 4009.08 next
A break below the 3982.62 session low extends the lower-low chain and voids the rsi divergence
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate could reset hike pricing and this read
Lower highs from 4,066.97; tight post-NY range 3,982–3,991.
Gold slid from the 4,066.97 Asian-session high and broke the 4,000 round number during NY hours, as hot-CPI yield pressure kept the USD bid, before printing a session low at 3,982.62. Late trade has compressed into a 3,982–3,991 range below the ema20 at 3,992.55, with the lower highs intact. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.7 and has made a higher reading on a lower close, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR is easing to 478 pips.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,990.97, 3,992.55, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3,982.62 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 3,990.97 range top and the ema20 breaks the lower highs line, with the 4,000 round number and the 23.6% fib of the 4,067–3,983 drop (~4,002.5) next
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could reset the range
The NY open broke $4,030 and extended the selloff from the 4066.97 London-open high through the $4,000 round number. Hot-CPI yield pressure kept gold offered. Since 19:00 UTC price has compressed in a 3982.62–3990.97 range below the ema20 at 3993.24, with RSI(14) oversold at 22.9 and ATR easing from 693 to 480.5 pips.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,990.97, 3,993.24, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the range top at 3990.97 and the ema20 at 3993.24 breaks the late-NY consolidation
Failure to hold the session low at 3982.62 extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 4000 round number puts the 23.6% selloff fib near 4002.5 in play
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4066.97; late-NY base at 3982.6–3991.
Gold extended its slide from the 4066.97 London-morning session high as the post-CPI USD bid persisted. Price broke down at the NY open and then accepted below the 4000 psych level along a lower-high chain. Late NY is compressing between the 3982.62 session low and 3991 under the falling ema20 at 3994.2, with RSI(14) oversold at 24.3 and ATR easing to 502 pips.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,994.20, 4,000.00, 4,006.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 3994.2 ends the late-NY compression read
Reclaim of 4000 psych and the 4006.94 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 3982.62 session low extends the downtrend; the session drop fib is the reference for any bounce
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows from 4066.97, compressing above session low.
Gold extended its post-CPI selloff from the 4066.97 high and broke the 4000 psych level after the NY open, with the USD and yields still bid. Late in NY hours it is compressing just above the 3982.62 session low, below both EMAs. RSI(14) at 23 is oversold, and a marginal lower low against the 17.1 RSI trough shows mild bullish divergence as ATR contracts to 516 pips.
Support: 3,982.62, 3,980.00
Resistance: 3,990.97, 3,995.08, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3982.62 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3980 round number
Close above the 3990.97 swing high and the ema20 at 3995.08 breaks the late-NY compression
Reclaim of the 4000 psych level would turn the NY break into a possible false break
Fib selloff 38.2% near 4014.8 is the first retracement reference if a bounce develops
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and compressing · RSI 25 · price 3,987.54
Lower highs from the 4066.97 session high, tight base above 3982.62.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4066.97 session high at London open. The NY-hours break below the 4000 psych mark extended the post-CPI slide as yields and the USD stayed bid. Price is now compressing in a 3982.62–3991 band below the ema20 at 3996.11, with RSI(14) oversold at 24.6 and ATR easing to 527.6 pips.
Support: 3,982.62
Resistance: 3,996.11, 4,000.00, 4,006.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 3996.11 and the 4000 psych level would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 4006.94 swing high from the 17:15 UTC bounce invalidates the immediate downtrend read
Break below the 3982.62 session low extends the lower-low chain
Calendar is clear until Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims, so the Asia session range around 3982.62–3991 is the next structural test
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 22 · price 3,984.97
Lower highs/lower lows from 4066.97; tight 3982.6–3991 base late NY.
Gold's London-NY drop from the 4066.97 Asian/early-London double high broke the 4,000 psych level as hot-CPI yields above 5% kept the USD bid, with the NY-open flush to 4010 doing most of the damage. Late NY is now compressing in a 3982.6–3991 band below the ema20 (3997.05), RSI(14) oversold at 21.6 and ATR easing to 540 pips from 732.
Support: 3,982.62, 3,980.00
Resistance: 3,990.97, 3,997.05, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3982.62 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3980 round number
Reclaim of the 3991 range top and the ema20 at 3997.05 would print the first higher high since London
Acceptance back above the 4000 psych level and the 23.6% fib of the drop (~4002.5) shifts the read to a corrective bounce
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speak slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London rejection; late-NY compression at 3982–3991.
Gold rejected the Asian high near 4067 in early London. It broke the Asian range low at 4026 into the NY open, extending the post-CPI slide below the 4000 psych level as yields and the USD stayed bid. Late NY is compressing between 3982 and 3991 under a falling ema20 at 3998.2, with lower highs intact; RSI(14) at 21.8 is oversold, and a minor bullish divergence shows on the marginal new session low.
Support: 3,982.62, 3,980.00
Resistance: 3,990.97, 3,998.20, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3991 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the late-NY compression
Reclaim of the 4000 psych level and the ema20 at 3998.2 would be the first structural shift since the NY open
Acceptance below the 3982.6 session low and the 3980 round number extends the lower-low chain into Asia
ATR has compressed from 732 to 546 pips; renewed expansion off the session low would signal the slide resuming
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims is the next scheduled US risk, with nothing on the calendar before it
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but intact · RSI 22 · price 3,984.39
Lower highs and lower lows below 4000 since the NY flush.
The London fade from the 4066.97 session high turned into a NY flush at 14:30 UTC, extending the post-CPI, 5%-yield selloff through 4000 psych into a lower-low chain at the 3983.03 session low. RSI(14) at 21.9 is oversold after a 17.1 trough. Late-NY bounces stall at the 3990.97 bounce high, under the lower highs line and well below the ema20 at 3999.43.
Support: 3,983.03, 3,980.00
Resistance: 3,990.97, 3,999.43, 4,006.94
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 3990.97 bounce high and the lower highs line would point to a basing attempt beneath the ema20
Reclaiming 4000 psych and the ema20 at 3999.43 would break the lower-low chain; the 4006.94 lower high sits above
Failure to hold the 3983.03 session low extends the sequence toward the 3980 round number
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Fri core PPI, are the next catalysts for yields and gold
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 22 · price 3,987.85
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the London high at 4066.97; the 3998–4007 shelf broke below 4000.
Gold extended the post-CPI slide through the NY session, with yields pinned near 5%, breaking the 3998–4007 shelf and the $4,000 handle to a session low at 3983.03. The 4066.97–3983.03 decline sits below both the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 22.1. Late-NY bars are stalling just above the low, and ATR(14) has eased to about 579 pips.
Support: 3,983.03
Resistance: 4,000.79, 4,006.94, 4,019.02
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 4000 and the ema20 at 4000.79 would neutralise the break below the shelf
A move through the lower high at 4006.94 breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the ema50 at 4019.02, near the 38.2% of the decline fib
Acceptance below the 3983.03 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold, pace slowing late NY · RSI 24 · price 3,988.87
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; trading below psych 4000.
Gold extended the post-CPI breakdown, sliding from the 4066.97 London-open high to a session low at 3983.03. London's 4046–4056 range broke lower, and the NY open leg accelerated the move through 4030. Late NY is drifting below the ema20 at 4002.25 and psych 4000, with a minor swing high at 3995.10. RSI(14) is oversold at 23.6, lifting off 17.1, and ATR is compressing to 589 pips from 732.
Support: 3,983.03
Resistance: 3,995.10, 4,000.00, 4,002.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back above psych 4000 and the ema20 at 4002.25 breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 3983.03 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Rejection at the 3995.10 swing high keeps the late-NY drift intact
Fib 38.2% of the session sell-off sits near 4015 if a relief bounce develops
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) is the next data catalyst for yields and gold
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4066.97 double top; 3998.5–4007 range broken lower.
Gold's selloff from 4066.97 picked up in the NY session as hot-CPI follow-through and 10y yields near 5% took price through the Asian low near 4026 and the $4,000 psych level. The 3998.5–4007 range broke lower late in NY, with lower highs at 4006.94 then 3995.10 and a fresh session low at 3984.72, below both EMAs. RSI(14) at 17.1 is deeply oversold with no bullish divergence; ATR is about 585 pips ($5.85).
Support: 3,984.72
Resistance: 3,995.10, 4,000.00, 4,003.62
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4000 psych level and the ema20 at 4003.62 would break the lower-high sequence
A break of the 3984.72 session low extends the lower-low chain; RSI 17.1 is oversold but shows no divergence yet
Rejection at the 3995.10 lower high keeps the downtrend structure intact; the 38.2% selloff fib sits near 4016
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 195K) and heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but still extending · RSI 18 · price 3,987.59
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4066.97 day high; 3998–4007 shelf broken.
Late NY session: gold extended the post-CPI slide from the 4066.97 day high. It broke under the 4000 psych level and the 3998–4007 shelf to a session low at 3986.04, with price below both EMAs and a lower-high trendline capping every bounce since the 14:30 UTC flush. RSI(14) at 17.5 is deeply oversold but is making fresh lows alongside price, so there is no bullish divergence, and ATR(14) has eased to 602 pips (~$6).
Support: 3,986.04, 3,980.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.45, 4,018.78
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4000 psych level and the broken shelf undercuts the range-break read
A reclaim of the ema20 at 4005.45 and the lower-high trendline would mark the slide stalling
A break of the 3986.04 session low extends the lower-low chain; the 3980 round number is the next reference, with no in-window structure below
The bounce high at 4018.78, near the 38.2% of the day-high fib, caps any deeper retrace
No US data in the next 8h; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next catalysts
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 19 · price 3,988.95
Lower highs from the 4066.97 high, 4000 shelf broken.
Gold extended the post-CPI slide into the NY session as USD strength held. The NY-open flush took price below the Asian range. After the nyo bounce stalled at 4018.78, a 4000-psych shelf held for about an hour before giving way to a 3987.33 session low. Lower highs from the 4066.97 London-open peak stay intact. RSI(14) at 19 is deeply oversold, and price trades well below the ema20 at 4007.37 with ATR near $6.20.
Support: 3,987.33
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,007.37, 4,018.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4000 psych handle would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 3987.33 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the ema20 at 4007.37 and the 4018.78 nyo bounce high would break the lower-highs line and stall the downtrend read
A 38.2% retracement of the 4066.97–3987.33 drop sits near 4017.75, in line with the nyo bounce high
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 20 · price 3,992.96
Lower highs from 4066.97; 4000 psych floor broken late NY.
Gold has sold off from the 4066.97 London open high. NY hours extended the slide as hot-CPI rate repricing and 10y yields near 5% weighed, with a 14:30 UTC flush to 4010.66 and a later break of the 4000 psych shelf to a 3987.33 session low. RSI(14) at 20 is oversold, price sits below both EMAs, and the lower highs line is capping late-session bounces just under 4000.
Support: 3,987.33
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,009.16, 4,018.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4000 psych would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 3987.33 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the ema20 at 4009.16 and the 4018.78 swing high would break the lower highs structure
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stretched · RSI 20 · price 3,992.12
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; $4,000 base broken late NY.
The selloff from the 4066.97 London high gathered pace at the NY open with a $20 flush through the 4021 tuesday low, extending the hot-CPI and yield-driven unwind. After London close price lost the 3998–4007 base and the 4000 psych handle, printing a session low at 3987.33 below a falling ema20 at 4010.93. RSI(14) sits at 20.3, oversold, and ATR of 654 pips (~$6.5) remains elevated.
Support: 3,987.33
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,010.93, 4,021.00
What it said to watch
A failed hold of the 3987.33 session low extends the lower-low chain
A reclaim of 4000 psych back inside the 3998–4007 base would mark the late-NY break as a false break
An M15 close above the ema20 at 4010.93 and the 38.2% retracement of the London selloff near 4017.8 would challenge the intraday downtrend read; 4021 tuesday low sits just above
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate on 25 vs 50 bp could materially shift this read
18:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but extending · RSI 20 · price 3,991.29
Lower highs from the London-open high, $4,000 broken in NY.
Gold made a double test of 4066 into the London open and has faded since. The NY session broke the Asian range low at 4026.64 and Tuesday's $4,021 floor on a 14:30 UTC flush, then lost the $4,000 psych handle out of a 3998.5–4006.94 base. Price is printing a fresh session low near 3990.7, below a falling ema20 at 4012.83, as the hot-CPI and 5% 10y-yield backdrop keeps rebounds shallow. RSI(14) sits at a deeply oversold 20.4 and ATR(14) has expanded to 651 pips (~$6.5).
Support: 3,990.68
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.94, 4,012.83
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 3990.68 session low would extend the lower-low chain.
A recovery back above the 4000 psych level and the 4006.94 base high would flag the breakdown as a false break.
An M15 close above the ema20 at 4012.83 would ease the downtrend read. The 38.2% retrace of the London high-to-low fib sits near 4019.8.
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers, with Williams late, could shift this read. Fri core PPI is the larger catalyst.
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and basing · RSI 24 · price 4,000.87
Lower highs and lower lows from 4066.97, Asian range broken lower, tight base at 4000.
The NY open broke the Asian range low near 4026.6 and extended the London fade from 4066.97 to a 3998.51 session low. The USD stayed bid on 50bp December hike talk after Tuesday's hot CPI. Price is now basing at the 4000 psych level in a 3998.5–4007 band, below the ema20 at 4014.9, with RSI(14) oversold at 24.3 after a 19.9 low and ATR(14) near 639 pips.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,998.50
Resistance: 4,007.00, 4,014.90, 4,018.80
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3998.5 session low extends the NY breakdown under the 4000 psych level
Reclaim of the 4007 base high and the ema20 at 4014.9 puts the 4018.8 pullback high and the 23.6% fib of the drop in play
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25 vs 50bp could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and basing · RSI 26 · price 4,003.19
Lower highs from 4066.97; tight base above 4000 psych.
Gold has faded steadily from the 4066.97 high set around London open. The NY-open leg broke yesterday's 4013.74 low and stalled at the 4000 psych handle, in line with the hot-CPI and 5% yield backdrop. Price is now basing between 3998.5 and 4007 below the ema20 at 4016.43 and the ema50 at 4031.33. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.4 after a 19.9 trough, and ATR(14) is about 651 pips.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,998.51
Resistance: 4,016.43, 4,018.78, 4,031.33
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3998.51 session low and the psych 4000 handle extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema20 at 4016.43 and the 4018.78 breakdown pivot puts the 23.6–38.2% fib zone (4015–4025) in play
Ema50 at 4031.33 caps the broader intraday downtrend while price stays beneath it
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers, including Daly and Williams, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4066.97 London high; NY broke the Asian range low and is compressing at the $4,000 psych.
Gold extended its post-CPI slide in NY hours. With yields near 5% it broke the Asian range low at 4026.64, and the 14:30 UTC breakdown bar carried price to the $4,000 psych. The last six bars are compressing just above the 3998.51 session low, below both the falling ema20 and ema50. RSI(14) is oversold at 21.3 and ATR is easing from 732 to 639 pips.
Support: 3,998.51
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,010.66, 4,017.78
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 3998.51 session low confirm a fresh lower-low under the $4,000 psych
A reclaim of the 4010.66 breakdown bar low would turn the late-NY compression into a bounce attempt toward the ema20 at 4017.78
Descending trendline from 4056.13 still caps rallies; the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop (~4024.7) sits just under the broken Asian low
Thursday's jobless claims and heavy Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into 4000 · RSI 21 · price 3,999.53
Lower highs since London's failed push; Asian range low broken at NY open.
London stalled at 4066.97 just above the Asian range and has printed lower highs since. The NY open broke the Asian range low near 4026.64, extending the post-CPI slide as yields hold near 5%. Price is now pinned at the 4000 psych level beside the 3998.57 session low, with RSI(14) oversold at 21, both EMAs falling overhead and ATR at 664 pips.
Support: 3,998.57
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,007.85, 4,019.54
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4007.85 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 3998.57 session low confirms the 4000 psych handle has given way
Reclaim of the ema20 at 4019.54 would mark the first structural repair of the selloff
Thu 13:30 GMT US jobless claims and Fedspeak could materially shift this read
16:45 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at 4000 · RSI 20 · price 4,000.48
Lower highs from London open high, Asian range broken lower.
Steady lower highs since the 4066.97 high at London open. NY extended the slide through the 4026.64 asian low and yesterday's 4013.74 prior low, with the post-CPI USD bid and 5% yields keeping gold heavy. Price now sits on the 4000 psych handle near a 3998.57 session low, below a falling ema20, with RSI(14) at 19.9 and ATR(14) at 693 pips (~$6.9).
Support: 4,000.00, 3,998.57
Resistance: 4,013.74, 4,021.51, 4,026.64
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4000 psych / 3998.57 session low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close back above the 4013.74 prior low would mark the NY break as a false break
Reclaim of ema20 at 4021.51 and the asian low at 4026.64 needed to break the lower-high sequence
Next scheduled catalyst is Thu 13:30 GMT US jobless claims plus Fedspeak; little on the calendar before then
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at $4,000 · RSI 21 · price 4,002.01
Lower highs and lows since London high; Asian range broken lower.
Hot-CPI and yield pressure kept gold heavy. A lower-high chain from the 4066.97 London high gave way through the NY open, breaking the 4026.64 Asian range low and the 4013.74 prior low to print a 4000.57 session low. After London close the last five bars are compressing between 4000.57 and the 4007.81 pause high, just above the $4,000 psych, with RSI(14) oversold at 21.1 and price under a falling ema20 at 4023.75.
Support: 4,000.57, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,007.81, 4,013.74, 4,023.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4000.57 session low and $4,000 psych extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 4007.81 pause high, then reclaim of the 4013.74 prior low, would mark the first break in the NY-session decline
ema20 at 4023.75 sits near the 38.2% of the London-NY decline and is the first test of any rebound
Thu 13:30 GMT US jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could shift the read; 10y yields holding above 5% keep pressure on the $4,000 handle
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near $4,000 · RSI 22 · price 4,006.14
Lower highs from London high, NY broke Asian range low.
Gold's lower-high sequence from the 4066.97 London high gave way at the NY open. Price broke the 4026.6 Asian range low and Tuesday's 4013.74 prior low as the post-CPI USD bid and 5% yields kept pressure on. Price is now basing at the 4000.57 session low just above the $4,000 handle, with RSI(14) oversold at 21.8 and ATR(14) expanded to ~704 pips (about $7 per bar).
Support: 4,000.57
Resistance: 4,013.74, 4,025.95, 4,038.27
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4000.57 session low and the $4,000 handle extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 4013.74 prior low reopens the 4025.95 ema20, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop
M15 close above the 4038.27 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims and Fed speakers could shift the read on 50bp hike odds
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near the 4000 handle · RSI 22 · price 4,004.25
Lower highs from the 4066.97 London open high; Asian range low broken.
Gold extended the post-CPI slide from the 4066.97 London open high. During NY hours it broke the Asian range low at 4026.64 and the prior low at 4013.74, then stalled at a 4000.70 session low just above the $4,000 psych handle. RSI(14) is oversold at 22.1, ATR has expanded to 725 pips, and price sits below both EMAs with the lower-high chain intact.
Support: 4,000.70
Resistance: 4,013.74, 4,018.78, 4,028.22
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4013.74 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Reclaiming the 4018.78 lower high and the ema20 at 4028.22 (near the 38.2% of the London-NY decline) breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 4000.70 session low takes price below the $4,000 psych handle
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled USD risk
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into the NY session · RSI 22 · price 4,005.07
Lower highs since London open; Asian range low and prior low broken.
London sold off from the 4066.97 session high and printed lower highs into the afternoon. The NY open then broke the Asian low at 4026.64 and the prior low at 4013.74, tagging a 4001.00 session low just above the 4000 psych as the hot-CPI and 5% yield backdrop keeps the USD bid. RSI(14) at 22.4 is oversold, ATR has expanded to 731.8 pips, and price trades below both EMAs, with ema20 at 4030.67.
Support: 4,001.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,013.74, 4,026.64, 4,030.67
What it said to watch
Clean M15 close below the 4000 psych extends the NY leg into fresh lows
Recovery back above the prior low at 4013.74 points to a false break below that level
Reclaim of the Asian low at 4026.64 and ema20 at 4030.67 would neutralise the lower-highs read
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims and Fed speakers on 50bp odds could reprice gold
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 23 · price 4,004.77
Lower highs and lower lows from the 4066.97 London-open high; Asian range low and prior low both broken.
The slide that began at London open accelerated at NY open, taking out the Asian low at 4026.81 and the prior low at 4013.74 to a new session low at 4004.47, as the USD holds its post-CPI bid. RSI(14) is oversold at 22.7, ATR(14) has expanded to 719 pips, and price trades below both EMAs with the 4000 psych handle just beneath.
Support: 4,004.47, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,013.74, 4,026.81, 4,033.29
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 4000 psych extends the lower-low chain from the session low
A reclaim of the 4013.74 prior low would mark the break as a false break
A bounce stalling below the asian low at 4026.81, the fib 38.2% near 4028 or the ema20 at 4033.29 keeps the downtrend read intact
A break of the lower-high trendline, now near 4045, invalidates the downtrend structure
Thu 13:30 GMT jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate are the next scheduled USD catalysts
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 28 · price 4,014.55
Asian range broken lower in first hour of NY; trading near session low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4066.97 London high, and in the first hour of NY broke the 4026.64 asian low to a 4010.66 session low as the post-CPI USD bid extended. RSI(14) at 28.4 is oversold, and ATR has expanded to 667 pips. Price sits below a falling ema20 (4036.11) and ema50 (4043.53).
Support: 4,010.66, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,026.64, 4,036.11, 4,043.53
What it said to watch
Hold of the 4010.66 session low; failure exposes the 4000 psych level
Reclaim of the 4026.64 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
M15 close back above the ema20 at 4036.11 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
US 10y yield holding above 5% keeps pressure on the downtrend
Lower highs from London high; Asian range and prior-day low broken.
The NY open extended the London-NY drop from the 4066.97 high. Price broke the 4026.64 Asian low and swept yesterday's 4013.74 low to a 4010.77 session low, with the post-CPI USD bid and 10y yields near 5% weighing on gold. RSI(14) at 23.8 is oversold and ATR has expanded to 673.5 pips, while price sits well below the ema20 (4037.98) and ema50 (4044.56) inside a lower highs sequence.
Support: 4,010.77, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,026.64, 4,037.98, 4,044.56
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4010.77 session low exposes the 4000 psych handle
A recovery back above the 4026.64 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Reclaiming the ema20 at 4037.98 and the ema50 at 4044.56 would break the lower highs trendline
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs from the London high, Asian range broken lower.
The NY open bar flushed to a session low of 4010.77. It broke the Asian low at 4026.64 and briefly undercut the prior low at 4013.74, extending the descending trendline of lower highs from the 4066.97 London high. RSI(14) is oversold at 24.2 and ATR has expanded to 673 pips, with the post-CPI USD bid and 10y yields above 5% keeping gold heavy below the ema20 and ema50.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,010.77, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,026.64, 4,040.37, 4,045.75
What it said to watch
A close back above the asian low at 4026.64 would mark the flush as a false break of the Asian range
Failure to hold the prior low at 4013.74 and the session low at 4010.77 opens the 4000 psych handle
A close above the ema20 at 4040.37 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the ema50 at 4045.75 sits just above, near the 61.8% fib
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed speaker run could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 33 · price 4,029.65
Lower-high chain from 4066.97; session low 4028.41 sits just above the Asian low.
Gold has printed lower highs from the 4066.97 London-open peak and slid through the London-NY transition to a 4028.41 session low. The post-CPI USD bid and a 10y near 5% keep it capped below 4050. In early NY, price is pressing the 4026.64 Asian low with RSI(14) at 33.2, below a falling ema20 (4042.92) and ema50 (4046.96) after a bearish cross, while ATR expands to 568 pips.
Support: 4,028.41, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,038.27, 4,042.92, 4,046.96
What it said to watch
A break below the 4026.64 asian low exposes the 4013.74 prior low from yesterday's NY session
A close above the 4038.27 lower high and the ema20 at 4042.92 breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaiming the ema50 at 4046.96 and the falling trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 4,031.18
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 4066.97, testing Asian range low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the rejection at the 4066.97 Asian-session high. It slid through London and into the first hour of NY to press the 4026.64 Asian low, below both EMAs, as the post-CPI USD bid and 10y yields above 5% keep it capped. RSI(14) at 32.5 is soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) is expanding to 585 pips (~$5.85).
Support: 4,026.64, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,038.27, 4,044.16, 4,056.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4026.64 asian low opens Tuesday's prior low at 4013.74 and the 4000 psych handle
Recovery above the 4038.27 swing high and the ema20 at 4044.16 would break the lower-high chain
Close above the falling trendline of lower highs and the 4056.13 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Friday's core PPI, are the next event risks for this read
14:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 39 · price 4,032.91
Lower-high sequence below both EMAs, testing Asian range low early in NY.
The London decline from the 4066.97 day high has printed a chain of lower highs, most recently 4056.13. Price now trades below both EMAs after the 20 crossed under the 50. The first hour of NY pressed to 4030, just above the 4026.64 asian low, extending the post-CPI heaviness as the USD stays bid. RSI(14) is 38.7 after dipping to 30.4. ATR is 554 pips (~$5.5) and expanding.
Support: 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,045.59, 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
Break of the 4026.64 asian low exposes Tuesday's 4013.74 cpi low
M15 close above the 4056.13 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of ema20 at 4045.59 needed to stall the London decline
Day high 4066.97 is the ceiling of today's range; US 10y holding above 5% keeps the tape heavy
13:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 30 · price 4,037.10
Lower highs from 4066.97, NY session low tested inside Asian range.
Gold has carved lower highs since the 4066.97 London high, a rejection at the Asian range top. Price slid below ema20 and ema50, which have crossed lower, and printed a 4032.19 session low at the NY open, still above the 4026.64 Asian low. RSI(14) sits at 30.4, just above oversold, and ATR(14) is about 551 pips, as Tuesday's hot CPI and 10y yields near 5% keep the post-CPI drag in place.
Support: 4,032.19, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,046.39, 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4026.64 Asian low exposes Tuesday's 4013.74 post-CPI prior low
Recovery back above ema20 at 4046.39 and the 4056.13 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
RSI(14) below 30 would mark the NY leg as oversold; a higher RSI low on a lower price low would flag divergence
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate are the next scheduled USD catalysts
13:31 UTC
Downtrend through London, momentum soft not stretched · RSI 36 · price 4,038.66
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4066.97 session high; pressing the session low at NY open.
London faded after a rejection at the 4066.97 session high, carving lower highs at 4061.76 and 4056.13 and grinding to a 4037.39 session low into the NY open. The pressure extends Tuesday's hot-CPI selloff with 10y yields above 5%. Price sits below the ema20 (4047.8) and ema50 (4049.37), RSI(14) 35.6, ATR(14) ~530 pips, and the Asian rally fib is roughly 70% retraced with the 4026.64 Asian low next below.
Support: 4,037.39, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,047.80, 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4037.39 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4026.64 asian low and the 4013.74 tuesday low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 4047.8 and a close above the 4056.13 lower high breaks the London downtrend line
First hour of NY sets the session range; no scheduled US data until Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak
13:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 4,044.32
Double top at 4066, neckline 4046.5 broken, price below both EMAs.
London has unwound most of the Asia rally from 4026.64. A double top at 4066 and a chain of lower highs pushed price through the 4046.5 neckline and under the ema20 (4048.74) and ema50 (4049.80). That fits the ~4050 cap seen since Tuesday's hot CPI. Price now sits just above the 4039.66 session low and near the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally (~4042), with RSI(14) at 41.6 and ATR around 5.0 (498.5 pips) per bar.
Support: 4,039.66, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,048.74, 4,056.13
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the lower high at 4056.13 breaks the lower-highs chain and the downtrend read.
Loss of the 4039.66 session low exposes the 4026.64 asia low, roughly the double top measured move.
Supply capping at the ema20 (4048.74) and the descending trendline near 4050 keeps the neckline break intact.
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker cluster could materially shift this read.
13:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since session high · RSI 42 · price 4,041.41
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 4066.97, below both EMAs.
Gold has printed lower highs from the 4066.97 session high through London, sliding to a 4040.5 session low. It sits below the ema20 (4049.24) and ema50 (4050.03), right at the $4,050 cap in place since the hot-CPI selloff. Price is testing the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally from 4026.64 into the NY open, with ATR compressing to 490 pips and RSI(14) at 41.6.
Support: 4,040.50, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,049.24, 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 4049.24 and the 4056.13 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4040.5 session low exposes the 4026.64 Asian low, then the 4013.74 prior low
NY open and Fed headlines could shift this read; Thursday 13:30 UTC jobless claims is the next scheduled data risk
12:46 UTC
Downtrend through London, lower highs and lower lows · RSI 37 · price 4,042.99
Double top near 4067 broken, sliding toward 61.8% of the Asian rally.
Gold put in a double top at 4066–4067 into the London open. It has stepped lower since, with each lower high capped under the falling trendline, and price now sits just above the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally from 4026.64. EMA20 has slipped under EMA50 with price below both, RSI(14) at 36.8 and not yet oversold. The move extends the post-CPI selling, with the 4,050 area acting as a cap.
Support: 4,041.07, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,049.78, 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4041.07 session low and the 61.8% fib opens the 4026.64 Asian low, then the 4013.74 cpi low
Close back above ema20 at 4049.78 and the 4,050 cap would stall the lower-high sequence
Break above the lower high at 4056.13 invalidates the falling trendline; the 4066.97 session high is the double top reference
NY open with no high-impact US data today, so yields and Fed headlines steer direction
ATR(14) near 500 pips (~$5) and compressing; a range expansion at NY open would mark a shift
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 41 · price 4,043.05
Lower highs from session high, testing fib support.
Since the 4066.97 session high late in Asia, London has printed a lower-high chain (4061.76, then 4056.13), with supply capping at the 4050 ema20 area. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian rally near 4042. RSI(14) is at 40.9 and ATR is about $5 per bar, as the post-CPI USD bid keeps gold heavy.
Support: 4,040.57, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,050.68, 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4040.57 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4026.64 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4050.68 and a close above the 4056.13 lower high voids the downtrend read
NY open at 13:30 UTC and Fed headlines could expand range beyond the ~$5 ATR
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) is the next scheduled USD test
12:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, price below both EMAs · RSI 43 · price 4,045.56
London lower highs after a false break of the Asian high.
London opened with a false break of the 4066.08 Asian high, set a 4066.97 session high and has since printed lower highs, the latest at 4056.13. Price is back under the $4,050 cap and below the ema20/ema50 near 4051, a day after the hot-CPI drop to 4013.74. The session low at 4044.29 sits on the 38.2% fib of the 4013.74–4066.97 rebound, with RSI(14) at 42.9 and ATR at 522 pips.
Support: 4,044.29, 4,040.36, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,051.29, 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4044.29 session low exposes the 50% fib at 4040.36, then the asian low at 4026.64
M15 close back above the ema20 near 4051 and the 4056.13 lower high breaks the London lower-high trendline
No high-impact US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fedspeak cluster are the next event risk
12:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs through London · RSI 39 · price 4,044.73
London range 4046.5–4056 broken lower, price back under the 4050 cap.
London has faded from the 4067.0 session high in a chain of lower highs. The 11:45 UTC bar broke the 4046.5 floor, which is the 38.2% fib of the 4013.7–4067.0 rebound, after a rejection at the 4056.1 lower high. That leaves price under the ema20 at 4051.8 and the ema50 at 4051.05, with RSI(14) at 39.3. Gold stays capped near $4,050 after Tuesday's hot CPI selloff, with 4044.0 the session low and the 4040.6 swing low (50% fib) above the 4026.6 Asia low.
Support: 4,044.00, 4,040.60, 4,026.60
Resistance: 4,051.80, 4,056.10, 4,067.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4051.8 ema20 negates the range break
Failure to hold the 4040.6 swing low exposes the 4026.6 asia low
A move above the 4056.1 lower high breaks the London lower-highs sequence
NY open ahead; no high-impact US data today, so Thu jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 43 · price 4,048.09
London lower-high sequence pressing the 4046.5 floor, below both EMAs.
London open briefly poked above the Asian range high to 4066.97, then reversed. That false break produced lower highs at 4061.8 and 4056.1, with gold back under the $4,050 cap the digest flags after Tuesday's hot-CPI selloff. Price sits at the london low shelf near 4046.5, around the 50% retracement of the Asia rally, below the ema20 (4052.55) and ema50 (4051.32). RSI(14) at 43 has eased from 69, and ATR(14) is ~$5.3 per bar.
Support: 4,046.50, 4,040.57
Resistance: 4,052.55, 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4046.50 london low exposes the 4040.57 swing low and the 61.8% of the Asia rally near 4042
Close back above the ema20 at 4052.55 and the 4056.13 lower high breaks the London lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 4066.97 london high negates the false-break read
No high-impact US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next catalysts
Gold has rebuilt from the hot-CPI flush to 4013.74. The Asia low at 4026.64 led a run to a 4066.97 session high. London faded that move but demand held the london low at 4046.5, the 38.2% retrace, and price now sits on flat EMAs at 4053 with RSI 51.7 and ATR compressing to 512 pips.
Support: 4,046.50, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,056.13, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
Close below the london low at 4046.5 breaks the rising support from the asia low and reopens 4040
Acceptance above the 4056.13 swing high puts the 4066.97 session high back in play
Digest flags $4,050 as the cap; no high-impact US data before NY open, Fedspeak headlines can still jolt the range
Lower highs from the 4066.97 session high against flat lows near 4046.5.
Mid-London, gold is coiling below the 4066.97 session high, printing lower highs into 4056. Below, the London low at 4046.5 has held twice, close to the 50% fib of the Asian rally from 4026.64. Price is sitting on the ema20 with RSI(14) neutral at 51.9 and ATR(14) easing to 527 pips, a quiet post-CPI consolidation with the firm USD tone capping rebounds.
Support: 4,046.50, 4,042.05
Resistance: 4,056.06, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4056 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 4066.97 session high
Failure to hold the 4046.5 London low exposes the fib 61.8% retracement at 4042.05
No US data into the NY open; Thu jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fri core PPI are the next catalysts that could shift this read
Lower highs from the 4066.97 London session high, holding 4046.5 floor.
Gold's late-Asia bounce from the post-CPI low at 4013.74 ran into rejection at the 4066.97 London session high, helped by Iran-diplomacy hopes capping the USD. Mid-London, price sits in a 4046.5–4056 box below the ema20 (4052.95) and EMA50 (4051.29). The London low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the rebound, RSI is neutral at 47.5 and ATR is compressing to about $5.4.
Support: 4,046.50, 4,039.72
Resistance: 4,052.95, 4,056.06, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4046.5 london low exposes the 50% fib and swing low near 4039.7–4040.4
Close above the 4056.06 lower high breaks the London highs trendline and reopens 4066.97
Fed speakers and Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims could shift the read; no high-impact US data today
10:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 45 · price 4,049.40
False break of Asian high, lower-high sequence into 50% retrace.
London open pushed marginally through the Asian high to a 4066.97 session high and was rejected. Lower highs followed at 4061.76 and 4056.06, and price is back under both EMAs, sitting near the 50% retrace of the Asian rally off 4026.64. Mid-London, the bounce after Tuesday's hot US CPI is fading with the USD still firm, and the 4046.50 London low has been tested twice.
Support: 4,046.50, 4,039.72, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,051.31, 4,056.06, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4046.50 london low exposes the 61.8% retrace at 4042.0 and the 4039.7 asia pivot
Reclaim of the ema50 at 4051.31 and a close above the 4056.06 lower high would break the descending trendline
Loss of 4039.7 leaves the 4026.64 asian low as the next intraday reference
Rejection at the 4066.97 session high stays the range cap; a move back above it negates the false break read
Lower highs from London high, London low holding near 50% fib.
Gold's Asia rally off the post-CPI lows hit a rejection at the 4,066.97 London high, barely above the Asian range top. A string of lower highs has pulled price back to the 50% fib, where the 4,046.64 London low is holding. Price sits just below both the ema50 (4,051.40) and ema20 (4,053.59), with RSI(14) at 46.4 and ATR around $5.40 per bar.
Support: 4,046.64, 4,040.57, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,051.40, 4,053.59, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4,046.64 London low exposes the 4,040.57 swing low, then the 4,026.64 Asia low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and ema20 at 4,053.59 reopens the 4,066.97 London high
No high-impact US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled USD risk
London double top at the Asian range high, lower-high sequence inside the Asian range.
London twice failed at the 4,066–4,067 Asian range high, forming a double top, and has printed lower highs since. The pullback held the 4,046.6 London low near the 50% fib of the Asian rally, and price now sits on the EMA50 at 4,051.4 but below the EMA20 at 4,053.9. RSI(14) has cooled from 69 to 49 and ATR is compressing to ~549 pips as gold clings above $4,050 on Iran-diplomacy USD softness.
Support: 4,051.44, 4,046.64, 4,040.00
Resistance: 4,053.93, 4,056.06, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4,046.6 london low exposes the asian shelf near 4,040 and the 61.8% fib at 4,042
M15 close above the 4,056 lower high and the ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 4,067 double top takes price out of the Asian range
No US data today; Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next catalysts for this read
10:04 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 47 · price 4,053.74
False break above Asian high at 4066, lower highs into 50% retrace.
London pushed marginally past the Asian range high to a 4066.97 session high and was rejected. Price then printed lower highs down to the 4046.64 London low, a 50% retrace of the Asia advance, and closed below the ema20 (4054.11) and ema50 (4051.41) with RSI(14) at 46.5. Gold remains heavy after Tuesday's hot US CPI, with US-Iran diplomacy hopes cushioning the dips.
Support: 4,046.64, 4,042.05, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,054.11, 4,061.76, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 4054.11 and the 4061.76 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline read
Failure to hold the 4046.64 London low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4042.05, then the 4026.64 Asia low
Reclaim of the 4066.97 session high negates the false break above the Asian range
No US data today; US-Iran headlines are the main intraday swing factor ahead of Thu claims and Fedspeak
Lower highs after a session high at 4066.97, double top neckline 4053.9 broken.
The Asia rally off the 4026.64 asian low came as US-Iran diplomacy hopes capped the post-CPI dollar bid. It stalled at 4066-4067, and the London open printed a small double top with a session high at 4066.97, then a run of lower highs that broke the 4053.9 neckline. Price now sits below ema20 4054.49 and ema50 4051.45 and is testing the 50% retrace of the Asia rally near the 4046.64 session low, with RSI(14) cooled to 45 from 69 and ATR(14) at 560 pips.
Support: 4,046.64, 4,040.57, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,051.45, 4,054.49, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4046.64 session low opens the 61.8% retrace near 4042 and the 4040.57 swing low
Reclaim of ema20 at 4054.49 and the lower-highs line near 4060 would neutralise the double top read
Loss of the 4026.64 asian low would erase the Asia rally entirely
No high-impact US data today. Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri core PPI are the next catalysts that could shift this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 4,049.26
London double top at 4066–4067, lower highs since, neckline 4053.92 broken.
London rejected the Asian high twice, at 4066.08 and a 4066.97 london high, and has since printed lower highs. Price has broken the 4053.92 neckline and slipped under the ema50 (4051.52) and ema20 (4054.99), giving back the $4,050 handle gold had held since the post-CPI bounce from 4013.74. RSI(14) 44.9, ATR 569 pips (~$5.7); the 4040.57 swing low sits near the 50% retracement of that bounce.
Support: 4,040.57, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,051.52, 4,054.99, 4,066.97
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 4054.99 and the 4061 lower highs would undo the double top read
Break of the 4040.57 swing low and the 50% fib exposes the Asian low at 4026.64
Rejection under the ema50 at 4051.52 would confirm the broken neckline is now capping
No high-impact US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
09:16 UTC
Asia upleg stalling, London drifting lower · RSI 50 · price 4,050.41
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4067 high; testing breakout zone.
After the hot-CPI flush to 4013.74, Iran-diplomacy USD softness lifted gold off 4026.81 in Asia. A 05:00 UTC break above the 4040–4052 range ran into a double top at 4066–4067 around London open. London has since printed lower highs. Price now sits back at the 4051.6 ema50, which lines up with the 38.2% fib. It trades below the 4055.6 ema20, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.9 and ATR at 570 pips ($5.70).
Support: 4,051.60, 4,046.90, 4,040.60
Resistance: 4,055.60, 4,061.80, 4,067.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4051.6 ema50 shifts focus to the fib 50% at 4046.9, then the 4040.6 range base
Reclaim of the 4055.6 ema20 and a break of the 4061.8 lower high would void the London lower-high sequence
Close above the 4067 double top resumes the Asia-session upleg
No high-impact US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri core PPI are the next catalysts
Higher lows off 4013.74; consolidating below a rejected session high.
Gold has carved higher lows off the post-CPI 4013.74 trough, but the Asia-session rally from 4026.64 met rejection at the 4067 session high in early London, which only marginally cleared the 4066.08 Asian high. Price is consolidating near the 23.6% fib of that rally, above the ema20 (4055.76) and ema50 (4051.51), with RSI(14) cooled to 57.6 from 69 and ATR(14) easing to 565 pips as the USD holds its hot-CPI bid.
Support: 4,054.00, 4,051.51, 4,040.60
Resistance: 4,067.00, 4,079.70, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4067 session high reopens the 4079.7 pre-cpi high, with 4100 round number beyond
Break of the 4054 london low puts the ema50 at 4051.51, which sits on the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 4040.6 higher low breaks the post-CPI recovery sequence
No high-impact US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
Tight early-London range under a twice-tested session high.
Gold has clawed back part of Tuesday's hot-CPI flush as US-Iran diplomacy hopes cooled the dollar rally, climbing from the 4026.81 Asian low to a 4066–4067 session high that has now capped twice. Early London is ranging between the 4054–4056 london low and that cap. Price holds above ema20 (4055.4) and ema50 (4051.2), with RSI(14) at 59.2 and ATR easing to 562.5 pips, which reads as compression, not extension.
Support: 4,055.90, 4,051.20, 4,046.90
Resistance: 4,067.00, 4,079.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4067 session high breaks the range and opens the 4079.7 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 4054–4056 london low turns the twin 4066–4067 highs into a double top, exposing ema50 at 4051.2 and the fib 50% near 4046.9
No high-tier US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate are the next catalysts that could shift this read
Asian range high broken, double rejection near 4066 in early London.
Gold's fragile rebound from the hot-CPI flush has built higher lows off 4013.74. Price cleared the Asian range high at 4052.66 and printed a 4066.97 session high in early London, but a second rejection near 4066 has RSI(14) cooling from 69 to 54.4. Price holds above the ema20 at 4054.89 and the ema50 at 4050.83, with ATR compressing to 561.5 pips.
Support: 4,053.92, 4,050.83, 4,040.57
Resistance: 4,066.97, 4,079.74
What it said to watch
A close below the 4053.92 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ema50 at 4050.83 and the 4040.57 higher low
Fib of the Asia-London leg (4026.64–4066.97): the 50% retrace at 4046.8 is the deeper test if the swing low gives way
A close above the 4066.97 session high opens the 4079.74 pre-cpi high, inside the 4065/75 zone flagged in the digest
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could reprice hike odds and shift this read
Higher lows off post-CPI low; Asian range broken above, stalling at session high.
Gold is extending its rebound from the 4013.74 post-CPI low as the hot-print dollar bid cools. Price broke above the Asian range high at 4052.66 and has been capped twice near the 4067 session high in early London. RSI(14) has eased to 59 from 69 and ATR is compressing, with price above both EMAs and the rising trendline near 4057 still intact.
Support: 4,053.92, 4,050.62, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,066.97, 4,079.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4066.97 session high opens the cpi bar high at 4079.74
Break of the rising trendline and the 4053.92 swing low turns the twin highs into a rejection, exposing ema50 at 4050.62
Loss of the old Asian range top at 4052.66 shifts focus back toward the asian low at 4026.64
US jobless claims and Fedspeak Thu 13:30 UTC, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the post-CPI low, Asian range high broken, double test of the session high.
Gold is rebuilding from the hot-CPI flush to 4013.74. It cleared the 4052.66 Asian range high late in Asia and ran to a session high at 4066.97, where a second push was rejected. Into London open price holds above both EMAs, with RSI(14) easing to 59 from 69 and the 4053.92 swing low as the nearest higher low on the trendline.
Support: 4,053.92, 4,050.27, 4,039.72
Resistance: 4,066.97, 4,079.76
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4053.92 swing low turns the twin 4066 tests into a double top and exposes the ema50 at 4050.27
Failure back inside the Asian range puts the 4039.72 range floor in play
M15 close above the 4066.97 session high opens the 4079.76 pre-cpi high
Loss of the higher-low trendline from the 4026.64 Asia low breaks the recovery structure
No US data in the next 8h; Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled risk
Higher lows above broken Asian range high; capped at 4067 session high.
Gold cleared the Asian high at 4052.7 around 05:00 UTC. That extends the recovery from the post-CPI low at 4013.7, with higher lows riding a rising trendline. The 4067.0 session high has been tested twice and capped price, and RSI(14) has eased to 63 from 69 into the London open, with price holding above both EMAs and ATR near 609 pips.
Support: 4,053.90, 4,052.70, 4,049.90
Resistance: 4,067.00, 4,079.80, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4053.9 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and puts the Asian high retest in play
Loss of ema50 at 4049.9 shifts the read back to range inside the recovery fib
Close above the 4067.0 session high opens the 4079.8 cpi high, then the 4100 psych level
US 10y holding above 5% and Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims plus Fed speakers could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 69 · price 4,062.56
Asian range broken higher, testing session high.
Gold is rebuilding from the hot-CPI flush to 4013.74. Asia broke out of its 4026.81–4052.66 range at 05:15 UTC and is pressing the 4066.97 session high, inside the $4,065/75 band. RSI(14) is 69 with price above both EMAs, and the swing low at 4053.92 sits on the rising trendline into London open.
Support: 4,053.92, 4,049.42
Resistance: 4,066.97, 4,079.76
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4066.97 session high opens the pre-CPI high at 4079.76
Break of the 4053.92 swing low and the rising trendline shifts focus to ema50 at 4049.42 and the 50% fib near 4046.9
A second stall at 4066–4067 would mark a lower-high risk with ATR(14) compressed near 617 pips
US 10y yield holding above 5% stays the main cap on rebounds
07:16 UTC
Uptrend off post-CPI low, stalling at session high · RSI 66 · price 4,062.18
Higher lows through Asia; 4066 session high retested, marginal lower high at 4065.40.
Asia extended the rebound from Tuesday's hot-CPI flush low near 4014, breaking the 4040–4052 overnight range and printing a 4066.08 session high. The 06:30 UTC pullback held the 4053.92 swing low on a line of rising lows, and price is pressing the high again ahead of London open, above ema20 (4051.67) and ema50 with RSI(14) at 65.5 and ATR(14) near 619 pips.
Support: 4,053.92, 4,051.67, 4,040.57
Resistance: 4,066.08, 4,079.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4066.08 session high opens the 4079.74 pre-CPI high, the top of the 4065/75 band
Break of the 4053.92 swing low and the rising lows line puts ema20 at 4051.67 and the 4040.57 range low back in play
US 10y yield holding above 5% has capped gold rebounds; Thu claims/Fedspeak and Fri PPI are the next scheduled USD risk
07:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the post-CPI low · RSI 65 · price 4,061.47
Higher highs and higher lows, Asian range broken to the upside.
Gold is rebounding off the 4013.74 low left by Tuesday's hot CPI flush, after Asian dip buying lifted it from the 4026.64 Asian low through the 4052.66 range top to a 4066.08 session high. The pullback held a higher swing low at 4053.92, above a rising ema20 at 4050.68, and price is pressing the session high again ahead of London open. RSI(14) sits at 64.6, short of overbought, and ATR(14) is about 616 pips ($6.2).
Support: 4,053.92, 4,050.68, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,066.08, 4,079.76
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4066.08 session high opens the 4079.76 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 4053.92 swing low and the ema20 at 4050.68 breaks the higher-low chain and points back into the Asian range
A loss of the rising support line from 4040.57 weakens the rebound structure
London open reaction at the 4066 session high decides whether the breakout extends or stalls
Fed speakers Thu and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC remain the next macro risk for the rebound fib
Higher lows since Asia low; post-breakout pullback above range top.
Asia dip buyers lifted gold from the 4026.81 asia low after Tuesday's hot-CPI flush. A break above the 4040–4052 range top reached a 4066.08 session high, and price is now pulling back toward that range top ahead of London open, holding above the ema20 at 4049.69. RSI(14) has cooled from 68.4 to 59.4, and ATR(14) is easing to 605 pips (about $6).
Support: 4,052.66, 4,049.69, 4,026.81
Resistance: 4,066.08, 4,079.74
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4052.66 range top and ema20 4049.69 turns the breakout into a false break
Rising support from the asia low, near 4045, is the higher-low chain; a break of it exposes the 61.8% asia rally fib near 4041.8
Clearance of the 4066.08 session high opens the 4079.74 cpi high
London open volatility may test the retest of the range top
Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri PPI, are the next scheduled USD risks
06:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, momentum cooling · RSI 60 · price 4,055.20
Higher lows from 4026.64 through Asia, session high 4066.08, shallow pullback ahead of London open.
Asia dip buying lifted gold off the 4026.64 Asia low after Tuesday's hot-CPI flush to 4013.74, with the dollar pausing. Price is now easing from the 4066.08 session high toward the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib. It holds above ema20 (4049.16) and ema50 after an ema cross, with RSI(14) cooling from 68 to 60 and ATR near $6.2 per bar.
Support: 4,049.16, 4,040.57, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,066.08, 4,079.74
What it said to watch
A close below the 4040.57 higher low breaks the Asia higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4026.64 Asia low
Acceptance above the 4066.08 session high opens the 4079.74 pre-CPI high
Failure to hold ema20 at 4049.16 into London open would put the fib 61.8% near 4041.7 in focus
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, higher-low chain intact.
Gold has rebuilt from the post-CPI 4013.74 low as the dollar paused. Late in the Asia session it cleared the Asian high at 4052.66 and printed a session high at 4066.08 before stalling, with RSI(14) easing to 61.9 from 68.4. Price holds above the ema20 (4048.51) and ema50 (4047.19), with the higher-low trendline intact into London open.
Support: 4,052.66, 4,048.51, 4,040.57
Resistance: 4,066.08, 4,079.70
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the Asian high at 4052.66 reopens the ema20/ema50 cluster near 4048 and the 38.2% rebound fib near 4046
Break below the 4040.57 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the intraday HL chain
M15 close above the 4066.08 session high exposes the pre-CPI high near 4079.7
US 10y yields holding above 5% at London open could cap the rebound; ATR near 627 pips (~$6.3) sets typical bar range
Higher-low chain through Asia, pullback from 4066 Asia high.
Gold has stepped up from the 4013.74 post-CPI low in higher lows through the Asia session. It met rejection at the 4066.08 Asia high and slipped to 4055 into the London open, with RSI(14) cooling to 65.1. Price holds above the ema20 (4047.68) and ema50 (4046.82), and the 4052.66 prior high from 01:30 UTC is the first shelf below.
Support: 4,052.66, 4,047.68, 4,040.57
Resistance: 4,066.08, 4,079.76
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4040.57 higher low breaks the Asia higher-low trendline and the recovery structure
Acceptance above the 4066.08 asia high opens the 4079.76 pre-cpi high
Loss of the 4052.66 prior high puts the ema20 at 4047.68 in play
ATR near 639 pips (~$6.4/bar) and expanding into London
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering from the post-CPI low · RSI 68 · price 4,061.18
Late-Asia breakout above the Asian range high, higher lows since 4026.64.
Late in the Asia session gold broke above the 4052.66 Asian range high and tagged a 4066.08 session high. That move retraces 38.2% of the hot-CPI drop from 4127.97 to 4013.74, and the upper wick sits under the 50% fib near 4071. RSI(14) at 68.4 is rising but not overbought, and price holds above both EMAs after the ema20 crossed just above the ema50 near 4046.
Support: 4,052.66, 4,046.54
Resistance: 4,066.08, 4,070.86, 4,079.74
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 4052.66 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
A close above the 4066.08 session high exposes the 50% fib at 4070.86, then the 4079.74 pre-CPI high
A break of the higher-lows line and the ema20 near 4046.5 would return price to the Asian range
London open liquidity is due within the next few bars, and Thursday's jobless claims, Fed speakers and Friday's PPI are the event risk
Late-Asia range break above 4052.7, testing 70% of CPI drop.
Late in the Asia session gold broke out of the 4039–4051 range and cleared the 4052.7 Asia high. It has now retraced roughly 70% of Tuesday's hot-CPI drop from the 4079.7 CPI high to 4013.7. Dip buyers extended the higher-low sequence as the dollar paused, with RSI(14) at 66.7 short of extreme and ATR(14) at about 620 pips. Price is above both EMAs, but EMA20 (4045.05) still sits just below EMA50 (4045.75), and the pair is converging around the 4045 ema20/50 cluster.
Support: 4,052.70, 4,045.40, 4,026.60
Resistance: 4,068.10, 4,079.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4052.7 Asia high would turn the breakout into a false break and reopen the 4045 ema20/50 cluster
4068 pre-cpi base, then the 4079.7 cpi high: areas to watch for rejection or break as London opens
Failure of the rising lows line, and a loss of the 4026.6 Asia low, would mark a lower-low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers, plus Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
Asian range break higher, rising lows since the 4026.6 Asia low.
Gold held a 4039–4051 range through most of the Asia session, then pushed through the 4052.66 Asia high into London open as the dollar paused after Tuesday's hot-CPI flush to 4013.74. Price is back above both EMAs with RSI(14) at 62.6, and is pressing the 38.2% retrace of the CPI selloff near 4057.
Support: 4,052.66, 4,045.24, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,063.38, 4,079.74
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 4052.66 Asia high during London would mark the move as a false break
Acceptance above the 38.2% retrace and the 4063.4 post-cpi top opens the pre-cpi base near 4079.7
Loss of the ema50 at 4045.2 and the Asia rising lows puts the 4026.6 Asia low back in play
No USD data in the next 8h; Thursday jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next catalysts
Lower highs from the 4052.66 Asian high, higher lows above 4039.72.
Asia dip buying, with the dollar pausing, has retraced about half of Tuesday's hot-CPI flush from 4079.76 to the 4013.74 cpi low. The spike to the 4052.66 asian high has since compressed into a pennant of lower highs and higher lows, with the latest higher low at 4039.72. Price sits just above ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is neutral at 55.8, and ATR(14) has eased to 597 pips from 733.
Support: 4,039.72, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,063.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 asian high breaks the pennant and opens the 4063.38 post-CPI high (post-cpi hi)
Close below the 4039.72 higher low resolves the coil lower, exposing the 4026.64 asian low and then the 4013.74 cpi low
London open is the next test of the Asian range; Thursday's jobless claims and Fed speakers from 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight range under the Asian high, price wedged between EMAs.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print drove gold down to the 4013.74 NY low. The Asia rebound peaked at the 4052.66 Asian high and has since compressed between the 4039.72 range low and that high. Price sits between ema20 (4042.26) and the ema50 at 4044.85, near the 23.6% level of the rebound fib, with RSI(14) flat at 51.9 and ATR easing from 732 to 607 pips.
Support: 4,039.72, 4,026.81, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,044.85, 4,052.66
What it said to watch
A London-open break below the 4039.72 range low exposes the 4026.81 Asian low, then the 4013.74 NY low.
Closes above the ema50 at 4044.85 and the 4052.66 Asian high would extend the rebound fib and invalidate the range read.
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read.
04:31 UTC
Rebound stalling, compressing between EMAs · RSI 53 · price 4,044.31
Post-CPI higher lows, lower highs since Asian high.
Gold slid from 4113 to a 4013.74 low after the hot US CPI print and yields above 5%. The Asia session rebound peaked at the 4052.66 Asian high. Price is now coiling between ema20 (4042.18) and ema50 (4044.93) with lower highs above the 4039.72 swing low, RSI 53 and ATR easing to 618 pips ($6.18) into London open.
Support: 4,042.18, 4,039.72, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,044.93, 4,052.66, 4,063.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 Asian high breaks the consolidation and brings the 4063.38 cpi high from the post-release bounce into view
Failure to hold the 4039.72 swing low exposes the 4026.64 Asian low near the rising trendline and the 50% rebound fib (~4033)
Sustained M15 closes back above ema50 would turn the EMA sandwich in favour of the upper edge
London open from compressed ATR could expand the range; US 10y holding above 5% keeps a lid on rebounds
Higher lows since 4013.7; tight range under the Asian high.
Gold has climbed off Tuesday's NY low at 4013.7, after the hot US CPI print drove the selloff, to a 4052.7 Asian high during Asia session dip-buying. Price is now held in a 4039.7–4051 range low/high box between the ema20 (4042) and ema50 (4045), with RSI(14) at 52.5 and ATR(14) at 641.5 pips.
Support: 4,039.70, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,044.97, 4,052.66, 4,061.31
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.7 Asian high opens the path to the 4061.3 cpi bounce high
Loss of the 4039.7 range low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 4026.6 Asian low
Failure to hold the 38.2% of the Asia rebound fib (~4037.8) would undercut the higher-low chain
Sustained hold below the ema50 (4045) keeps price capped inside the range
London open in about 4h is the next likely range-expansion window
04:02 UTC
Rebounding off post-CPI low, now consolidating · RSI 55 · price 4,047.53
Higher low at 4026.6, tight 4039.7–4052.7 box.
Gold is boxed between the 4039.7 swing low and the 4052.7 Asian high after a 01:30 UTC spike. It sits just above a flat ema50 at 4045.0 and a rising EMA20, with RSI(14) at 55 and ATR(14) easing to 640.6 pips (about $6.4). The hot US CPI selloff bottomed at 4013.7 late in NY, and the Asian low at 4026.6 printed a higher low on the rising trendline.
Support: 4,045.04, 4,039.72, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,063.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 Asian high opens the 4063 post-CPI high
Failure to hold the 4039.7 swing low exposes the 4026.6 Asian low and the rising trendline
Sustained trade back below the ema50 at 4045.0 turns the box into a stall under resistance
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Higher lows inside the Asian range below the 4052.66 high.
Gold is steadying after Tuesday's hot-CPI flush to 4013.74. In the Asia session it spiked from an Asian low at 4026.64 to an Asian high at 4052.66, and is now compressing between a 4039.72 higher low and that high. Price sits above the ema20 and a flat ema50, holding above the 23.6% level of the recovery fib, with RSI(14) at 57.4 and ATR(14) easing to 650 pips (~$6.50).
Support: 4,045.02, 4,039.72, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,063.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 Asian high opens the 4063.38 cpi bar high
Close below the 4039.72 higher low, breaking the higher-low line, returns focus to the 4026.64 Asian low
Loss of the ema50 at 4045.02 would put the late-Asia session range back in play
Late Asia session now; London open could extend or reject the Asian range
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next USD catalyst for this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, compressing below Asian high · RSI 58 · price 4,046.25
Higher lows under 4052.66 after the post-CPI slide.
Gold bounced in the Asia session from the 4026.81 Asian low to 4052.66, after Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the slide to 4013.74. Higher lows at 4039.72 and 4043.07 now compress price under the Asian high, with price holding above both EMAs and the ema50 at 4044.92. RSI(14) sits at 57.5 and ATR(14) at about 677 pips.
Support: 4,044.92, 4,039.72, 4,026.81
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,063.38
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the Asian high at 4052.66 opens the post-CPI high at 4063.38
A loss of the ema50 at 4044.92, then the 4039.72 higher low, breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the Asian low at 4026.81
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate are the next scheduled USD risk
03:16 UTC
Rebounding from post-CPI low, higher lows in Asia · RSI 59 · price 4,049.61
Asia broke above Tuesday's 4014–4042 range and retested 4040.
Gold based at 4013.74 after Tuesday's hot-CPI selloff. Asia swept the 4026.6 asia low, then pushed out of the overnight range to a 4052.66 asia high. The pullback put in a higher low at 4039.7, close to ema20 at 4040.15. Price now sits back above the ema50 at 4044.8 with RSI(14) at 59 and ATR near $7.
Support: 4,044.80, 4,039.70, 4,026.60
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,061.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 asia high opens the 4061 cpi bounce area
Failure to hold the 4039.7 higher low puts the 4026.6 asia low back in play
Rising trendline from 4026.6 broken on a close negates the Asia higher-low chain
London open is the first test of whether the Asia breakout holds
Higher low at 4026.64 after 4013.74 base; spike capped at 4052.66.
The hot US CPI print drove gold from 4079.74 to a 4013.74 swing low. The Asia session then held an asian low at 4026.64 and spiked to a 4052.66 session high, just shy of the 61.8% fib of the CPI drop, where it was rejected. Price is now pinned between ema20 (4039.23) and ema50 (4044.65), RSI(14) is 54.7 and ATR(14) is about 702 pips ($7.0).
Support: 4,039.23, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,044.65, 4,052.66, 4,054.53
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 session high and the 61.8% fib at 4054.53 extends the CPI-drop retracement
Loss of ema20 at 4039.23 returns price to the 4026.64–4039 Asian range
Break below the 4026.64 asian low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 4013.74 swing low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4013.74; Asian high 4052.66 rejected, price on ema50.
The hot US CPI print extended the slide from 4079 to a 4013.74 low during NY hours. Asia session has since printed rising lows, then spiked to the 4052.66 Asian high and was rejected. Price is holding just above the flattening ema50 at 4044.70, with a rising ema20 at 4038.77 below, RSI(14) at 57.4 and ATR(14) at 708 pips.
Support: 4,044.70, 4,038.77, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,063.38
What it said to watch
A close above the 4052.66 Asian high opens the 4063.38 cpi bounce high
Loss of the ema20 at 4038.77 puts the 4026.64 Asian low back in play
A break below the 4026.64 Asian low breaks the rising lows line and resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke gold out of the 4,070s, and selling extended to a 4,013.74 swing low. Price has since rebounded on higher lows. The Asia session spiked to an Asian high at 4,052.66, but a rejection there pulled price back to about 4,042, still above ema20 (4,037.99) and ema50 (4,044.64), with RSI 56.3 and ATR near 717 pips.
Support: 4,037.99, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,063.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 asian high reopens the post-cpi high at 4063.38
Loss of ema20 at 4037.99 shifts focus to the 4026.64 asian low and the rising lows line
Break below the 4013.74 swing low resumes the post-CPI downtrend toward the 4,000 psych handle
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Asia session range 4026.6–4052.7 inside a 4013–4054 base.
After the hot US CPI drove gold from 4079 to the 4013.74 NY low, price has based with rising lows. The Asia session swept its own range to the 4026.64 asia low, spiked to the 4052.66 asia high and met rejection. Price is now about midway through the retrace of that spike fib, sitting between the ema20 at 4037.28 and the ema50 at 4044.63, with RSI 54 neutral.
Support: 4,037.28, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,044.63, 4,052.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 asia high breaks the Asia range and the post-CPI base top
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 4026.64 asia low exposes the 4013.74 ny low and the rising lows line
Holding below the ema50 at 4044.63 keeps the spike rejection intact
ATR ~$7.3 per bar; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Base above 4014 low, Asia range break capped at 4052.
The hot US CPI drove gold from 4079 to a 4013.74 low. Price then based between 4014 and 4036 into the Asia session. Early Asia broke that range top and spiked to the 4052.66 asia high, near the 61.8% of the CPI leg, before a rejection pulled it back to retest the ema50 at 4044.74 with RSI(14) cooling to 56.8 from 63.6.
Support: 4,044.74, 4,036.79, 4,026.64
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,063.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.66 asia high opens the 4063.38 post-cpi high
Loss of the ema20 at 4036.79 puts price back inside the prior base, with the 4026.64 asia low and the rising lows trendline underneath
ATR(14) has expanded to ~$7.3; Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate are the next scheduled risk
Asian range broken higher; higher low off the 4013.74 day low.
Early Asia broke above the 4026.81–4041.95 Asian range with a sharp push to a 4052.66 session high. That move reclaimed both EMAs and retraced roughly half of the hot-CPI selloff to the 4013.74 day low. RSI(14) is at 63.6 and ATR is expanding to 732 pips.
Support: 4,044.74, 4,041.95, 4,026.81
Resistance: 4,052.66, 4,061.31
What it said to watch
Holding the ema50 at 4044.74 and the Asia high at 4041.95 keeps the range break intact
Rejection at the 4052.66 session high near the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib; a close above opens the post-CPI high at 4061.31
A return below the 4026.81 Asia low breaks the rising lows line and resumes the downtrend
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker run could materially shift this read
Post-CPI range 4013.74–4041.95; Asia session dip below early lows recovered.
Gold has held a 4013.74–4041.95 range since the hot US CPI print drove a ~$66 slide off 4079.74. Early in the Asia session a dip below the session's opening lows to the asia low at 4026.64 was bought straight back above the ema20 (4034.35). Price now sits at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI selloff fib, capped by the ema50 at 4044.48, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.8 and ATR(14) at 660.5 pips.
Support: 4,034.35, 4,026.64, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,041.95, 4,044.48, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asia high 4041.95 and ema50 4044.48 opens the 4054.07 lower high
Failure to hold the asia low 4026.64 puts the cpi low 4013.74 back in play
ATR(14) at 660.5 pips (~$6.60) puts a typical bar near half the gap to the ema50
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fed speakers through Williams could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce faded · RSI 39 · price 4,028.89
Lower high at Asian high, testing Asian low.
The hot US CPI print broke gold from 4,079 to a 4,013.74 NY low. The Asia bounce to the 4,041.95 Asian high stalled near the 38.2% retracement and has rolled back below the ema20 (4,034.06) and the falling ema50 (4,044.78) to test the Asian low at 4,026.81. RSI(14) slid from 58 to 39, and ATR(14) ticked back up to 626 pips.
Support: 4,026.81, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.06, 4,041.95, 4,044.78
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4,026.81 Asian low exposes the 4,013.74 NY low, then the 4,000 psych handle
A close back above the ema20 at 4,034.06 returns price to mid-range inside the Asian range
Acceptance above the 4,041.95 Asian high and the ema50 at 4,044.78 would break the lower-high sequence
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers through Williams could materially shift this read
4014–4042 consolidation after CPI selloff; Asian high capped.
The hot US CPI print drove gold from 4079 to a 4013.74 post-cpi low. It has since based in a 4014–4042 range as ATR(14) compressed from 842 to about 593 pips. The Asian session push to 4041.95 stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that drop, with RSI(14) fading from 58 to 46. Price is back under the ema20, and the falling ema50 sits overhead at 4045.49.
Support: 4,031.10, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,041.95, 4,045.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4031 asian low exposes the 4013.74 post-cpi low, then the 4000 psych handle
Acceptance above the 4041.95 asian high and the ema50 at 4045.49 would extend the CPI-drop retracement past the 50% fib
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker run could break the range either way
The hot US CPI print extended the slide from the 4079.74 release-bar high to a 4013.74 swing low in NY hours. Price has since held higher lows and is stalling at the 38.2% fib near 4039, with the Asia high at 4041.95 capping the early Asian range. Price sits above the ema20 at 4034.90 but below the ema50 at 4045.98; RSI(14) is neutral at 52 and ATR has compressed from ~871 to ~589 pips.
Support: 4,034.90, 4,031.11, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,041.95, 4,045.98, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4041.95 asia high and the ema50 at 4045.98 (near the 50% fib) opens the 4054 cpi pivot
Loss of the ema20 and the 4031.11 asia low exposes the 4013.74 swing low again
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next scheduled catalyst for this read
Higher lows off 4013.74, capped at 38.2% fib near 4042.
The hot US CPI print dropped gold from 4,079 to a 4,013.74 CPI low during NY hours. Higher lows have rebuilt price since then. The early Asia session high at 4,041.95 stalled near the 38.2% fib of that drop. Price holds above the ema20 at 4,034.62 but below the ema50 at 4,046.32, RSI is at 55 and ATR has compressed to 585 pips.
Support: 4,034.62, 4,031.11, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,041.95, 4,046.32
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,041.95 session high and 38.2% fib opens the ema50 at 4,046.32, near the 50% retracement
Loss of the ema20 and the 4,031.11 session low breaks the rising trendline, exposing the 4,013.74 CPI low
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fed speakers (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4013.74; Asia session broke the 4024–4036 evening range.
The hot US CPI print drove gold from 4079.74 to a 4013.74 swing low. Price has since built rising lows, and the Asia session broke the 4024–4036 evening range to a 4041.95 session high, near the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop. Price is above the ema20 (4034.11) but still capped by the ema50 (4046.6), with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR(14) compressing to 591 pips.
Support: 4,034.11, 4,031.11, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,041.95, 4,046.60, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
A close back below the ema20 and the 4031.11 Asia low puts price back inside the evening range and breaks the rising lows line
Acceptance above the ema50 at 4046.6 opens the 50% retrace of the CPI drop and the 4054 post-CPI high
Loss of the 4013.74 swing low resumes the CPI downtrend toward the $4,000 psych level
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speakers that follow (Williams, Daly, Goolsbee) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 4013.74 cpi low, testing 4040.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC extended the earlier Waller-driven slide to the 4013.74 cpi low. Higher lows have built since, through NY and into the Asia session, and price is now pressing the 4040 round number at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop. Price is above the ema20 at 4033.36 but below the ema50 at 4046.82, which lines up with the 50% retrace, while ATR(14) has compressed to 601 pips from roughly 900.
Support: 4,033.36, 4,024.36, 4,013.74
Resistance: 4,040.00, 4,046.82, 4,054.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 and 50% retrace at 4046.82 opens the 4054.07 lower high from the post-CPI bounce
Break of the 4024.36 higher low ends the rising lows sequence and puts the 4013.74 cpi low back in play
Repeated failure at the 4040 round number keeps the bounce inside the post-CPI downtrend
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read