19:07 UTC
Corrective downtrend from Q1 2026 record high · RSI 44 · price 4,187.90
Lower highs since Jan 2026; price back below W1 EMA50 after August lower high.
Gold has been in a corrective downtrend since the late-January record high at 5598, printing successive lower highs at 5419, 4889 and the August high at 4697. That August rally stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the record-high decline, and price has now slipped back below the W1 EMA50 near 4221, matching the 4200–4227 ceiling that capped every attempt this week. Record long-end US yields (10y ~5.29%) and a firm dollar are the driver, with bullion unable to rally even on the 29K NFP miss; RSI near 44 is mid-range and offers no extreme signal.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,221.00, 4,696.74, 5,598.18
What it said to watch
- Weekly close back above the w1 ema50 near 4221 would negate the latest rejection and return price to the mid-range
- Failure to hold the 4110 weekly low exposes the 4000 psych level and the 3942 summer low, the base of the June–July range
- A weekly close below the 3942 summer low would extend the lower-low sequence from the record high
- Break above the lower-high line and the 4697 aug high would invalidate the corrective-downtrend regime
- ISM Services PMI (Mon Oct 5, f/c 55.7) and FOMC Minutes (Wed Oct 7) via the 10y yield channel could materially shift this read