19:06 UTC
Corrective downtrend within 2025 bull run · RSI 49 · price 4,310.61
Lower highs since Jan record; mid-range between 3943 and 4697.
Gold has been in a corrective regime since the late-January record high at 5598. It has printed lower highs at 5419, the april high at 4889 and the aug high at 4697, while the June 2026 low at 3943 held just under the 61.8% retracement of the 2025–26 advance. Price at 4310 sits marginally above a flattening EMA(50) near 4280 that coincides with the 50% fib, so the macro filter has turned neutral and RSI(14) at 49 carries no signal. The Fed re-tightening backdrop, with the 10y yield above 5% and roughly 70% October hike odds, explains why the July–August rebound stalled at a lower high.
Support: 4,280.00, 4,099.08, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,696.74, 4,889.10, 5,598.18
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the ema50 and 50% fib near 4280 puts price in the lower half of the 3943–4697 range and exposes the march low at 4099
- Loss of the 2026 low at 3943 and the 4000 psych level would break the 2025 uptrend line and the 61.8% fib, confirming a deeper regime reversal
- Weekly close above the aug high at 4697 would break the lower-highs trendline sequence; the april high at 4889 is the next cap below 5000 and the record high
- Wed ADP (f/c 70K) and PCE MoM (f/c 0.4%), with NFP next week, could materially shift October hike pricing and this read