XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 25 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:47 UTC
Intraday range after two-way swing, drifting lower into close · RSI 44 · price 4,284.90
Late-NY range 4279.5–4300 below London high, above day low.
London's run to the 4315.7 London high fully reversed in NY. The drop swept the Asian low to a 4254.6 day low before the oil-led bounce retraced to the 50% fib near 4285. Late NY has ranged between the 4279.5 range low and the 4297–4300 range top, with RSI(14) near 44 and price under both EMAs into the weekly close.
Support: 4,279.50, 4,254.60
Resistance: 4,297.20, 4,300.30, 4,315.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4279.5 range low exposes the 4254.6 day low
Reclaim of the 4297.2 range top and psych 4300 reopens the 4315.7 London high
Weekend gap risk at Monday open; Wed ADP and PCE are the next major catalysts for this read
20:32 UTC
Rebound from day low stalling, flat momentum · RSI 47 · price 4,287.01
Lower highs under 4300 over a flat 4279.5 base, compressing into the weekly close.
Late NY into the Friday close: gold has retraced about half of the 4315.66–4254.56 drop from the London high to the NY low. The rebound was rejected at the 4300 cap and then at a lower high of 4297.22, while twin lows at 4279.5 hold. Price is compressing just under the EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 47, as the oil slump eased the dollar but yields above 5% keep rebounds capped.
Support: 4,279.50, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,297.22, 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300 cap breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4315.66 london high in view
Failure to hold the 4279.5 twin lows reopens the 4254.56 day low
Weekly close near 21:00 UTC with thinning liquidity; next major risk is Wed ADP/PCE, with Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak before it
Higher lows off the 4254.56 day low, compressing under psych 4300 into the weekly close.
The London push to the 4315.66 session high faded into a sharp slide through the London-NY transition, sweeping the Asian low at 4256.41 to print the 4254.56 day low. The rebound, helped by a USD pause on the WTI slump, has been rejected at psych 4300 since the first hour of NY. Price is now compressing between the 4287.83 swing low and 4297 near the 61.8% retrace of the 4315–4254 drop, with higher lows at 4279.53 holding.
Support: 4,287.83, 4,279.53, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above psych 4300 breaks the late-NY cap and opens the path to the 4315.66 session high
Loss of the 4287.83 swing low, then the 4279.53 higher low, returns focus to the 4254.56 day low
Weekly close in under an hour; Monday reopen gap risk around the 4300 pivot
Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak, then Wed ADP/PCE, could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Recovering from NY flush, capped below 4300 · RSI 55 · price 4,291.72
Higher lows compressing under 4300 into Friday close.
London's break above the Asian high failed at the 4315.66 London high. NY then flushed to a 4254.56 day low, sweeping the Asian low, as 10y yields held above 5%. Since the 16:00 UTC NY high at 4300.3, higher lows at the 4279.5 double low and the 4288 higher low have compressed price at the 61.8% fib of the NY drop into the Friday close.
Support: 4,288.00, 4,279.50, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4300.3 (ny high) opens the path to the 4315.66 london high
Loss of the 4288 higher low returns price to the 4279.5 double low; a break there puts the 4254.56 day low back in focus
Thin trade into the Friday close; Tue JOLTS/Fedspeak and Wed ADP/PCE are the next catalysts that could shift this read
Rising lows from 4254.56 compressing under a 4297–4300 cap.
The NY session dropped from the London session high of 4315.66 and swept the Asian low (4256.41) to a 4254.56 day low. The rebound, driven by the oil slump, has since retraced about 61.8% of that drop. Late in NY, the 4279.59 higher low and 4288.00 swing low are pressing a cap just under the 4300.30 NY high. RSI(14) sits neutral near 55.
Support: 4,288.00, 4,279.59, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4300.30 NY high breaks the cap and the 61.8% fib, opening the 4315.66 session high
A break of the 4288.00 swing low and the rising support line ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 4279.59 higher low
Loss of 4279.59 puts the 4254.56 day low back in view
Friday close into thin liquidity; Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts, with gap risk at the weekly reopen
19:32 UTC
Range-bound recovery after NY flush, lower highs under 4300 · RSI 51 · price 4,289.41
Range 4279–4300 after NY sweep below Asian low; lower highs capping.
London broke the Asian high to a 4315.66 london high and failed. NY then swept below the Asian low to a 4254.56 session low before an oil-driven rebound reclaimed the drop's 61.8% retracement fib. Late-NY price is ranging between the 4279.5 ny swing low, held twice, and psych 4300, with lower highs at 4300.30 and 4297.22 capping it.
Support: 4,279.50, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above psych 4300 breaks the lower highs and puts the 4315.66 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 4279.5 ny swing low reopens the 4254.56 session low
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close can exaggerate moves inside the range
Next scheduled risk is Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak; nothing on the calendar before the close
Higher lows off the 4254.56 sweep low, capped below the 4300.3 NY high.
Gold swept below the Asian low to 4254.56 in early NY hours, then rebounded as oil slumped. Since then it has built higher lows along a rising trendline. Late in the NY session, price holds above the 61.8% fib of the 4315.66–4254.56 drop and is pressing the 4300.3 NY high, which produced a rejection earlier in the session.
Support: 4,288.64, 4,279.53, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300.3 NY high clears the earlier rejection and opens the path to the 4315.66 day high
Break of the rising trendline and the 4288.64 swing low shifts focus back to the 4279.5 double low
Failure to hold the 4279.5 double low reopens the 4254.56 day low
Late-Friday NY hours into the weekly close; thin liquidity can distort the final bars
19:05 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since NY low · RSI 60 · price 4,293.45
Higher lows off 4254.56, capped below 4300.
Gold rebounded from the 4254.56 day low as oil slid during NY hours, and it has since built twin lows at 4279.5. It is now back at the 61.8% retrace of the London high to NY low drop, just under the 4300 ny high that rejected price at 16:00 UTC. Late Friday NY session, RSI(14) near 60, no extreme.
Support: 4,279.50, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300.3 ny high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the London high at 4315.66
Failure to hold the 4279.5 twin lows returns focus to the 4254.56 day low
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close can exaggerate moves around 4300
JOLTS and Fedspeak Tue, then ADP/PCE Wed, sit outside this window but carry the next directional risk
18:47 UTC
Rebound off NY low, stalling below 4300 · RSI 58 · price 4,291.98
Higher lows from 4254.56, range 4279.5–4300.3.
NY swept the Asian low at 4256.41 down to a 4254.56 session low, then recovered as WTI fell and the dollar eased. The bounce retraced about 75% of the London high-to-NY low drop before capping at the 4300.30 NY high. Late NY is consolidating between the 4279.5 swing low, tested twice, and the $4,300 pivot, with price near the 61.8% fib and RSI(14) around 58.
Support: 4,279.50, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300.30 ny high clears the $4,300 pivot and opens the 4315.66 london high
Break of the 4279.5 swing low reopens the path toward the 4254.56 session low
Friday close in ~2h thins liquidity; next scheduled risk is Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak
18:32 UTC
Sideways after NY flush and rebound · RSI 56 · price 4,288.05
Lower highs pressing a flat 4279–4280 base.
London's run to the 4315.66 london high reversed after the US data, dipping just under the Asian low to the 4254.56 day low before the oil slide drove a rebound that was rejected at the 4300.3 ny high. Late NY is now compressing between twin lows near 4279.5 and a lower high at 4293, holding above the 38.2% of the rebound fib with RSI(14) neutral around 56.
Support: 4,279.50, 4,270.00, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,293.00, 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4293 lower high reopens the 4300 ny high; a second rejection there keeps the range intact
Failure at the twin lows (4279.5) exposes the 4270 higher low and 61.8% of the rebound fib, then the 4254.56 day low
Friday close in ~2.5h thins liquidity; no scheduled US data until Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak
Lower highs off the 4300 NY high, compressing into twin lows at 4279.5.
London faded from its 4315.66 high, and NY swept the Asian and prior lows to 4254.56 around the Michigan print before the oil-driven rebound was rejected at the 4300.3 NY high. Late NY is compressing between twin lows at 4279.5 and lower highs near 4293, with price holding just above the 38.2% of the rebound and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 4,279.50, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,293.00, 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4300 breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the london high at 4315.66
Failure to hold the twin lows at 4279.5 exposes the 50% fib near 4277 and then the ny low at 4254.56
Friday close with thin late-NY liquidity; Tue JOLTS/Fedspeak and Wed ADP/PCE are the next scheduled catalysts
NY lower high at 4300.30 under London's 4315.66 high; higher low at 4270 after the sweep low.
London's run to the 4315.66 london high unwound in NY after the firm US Durable Goods print. Price swept the Asian low to the 4254.56 sweep low, then recovered until rejection at the 4300.30 ny high. Late NY is ranging between a double low at 4279.5 and a range top near 4293, sitting on the 50% retrace of the London-NY drop fib, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 4,279.50, 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,293.00, 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack speaks at 18:00 UTC; explicit hike language could break the 4279.5 double low
An M15 close below 4279.5 exposes the 4270 higher low and NY rising support
A push through the 4293 range top retests the 4300.30 ny high; clearing it reopens the 4315.66 london high
Loss of the 4254.56 sweep low turns the NY reclaim into a failed reversal
Late-Friday trade into the weekly close may thin out and exaggerate moves
17:47 UTC
Choppy recovery, lower high under 4300 · RSI 58 · price 4,286.37
Range 4279.5–4293 inside 4254–4316 session range.
NY session sold off after firm US durables and capex data, sweeping the Asian low at 4256 into a 4254.56 NY low. The rebound was rejected at the 4300 pivot, a lower high beneath the 4315.66 session high. Late-NY price is compressing between twin lows at 4279.5 and a 4293 range top on flat EMAs, holding the upper half of the rebound.
Support: 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,293.05, 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC lands just ahead of the Friday close and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4300 pivot breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 4315.66 session high
Failure to hold the twin lows at 4279.5 puts the 4270 swing low and the 4254.56 NY low back in play
17:32 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off NY low · RSI 55 · price 4,286.04
Higher lows off 4254.56 NY low, capped below 4300 pivot.
NY session swept below the Asian low at 4256 into the 14:00 UTC Michigan release, then rebounded in a V to 4300.30, where supply capped price at the 4300 pivot again. This fits the rates-driven cap in the macro backdrop. Price is now compressing between 4280 and 4293 on the flat EMA20/50 cluster, holding above the 38.2% of the ny rebound with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 4,279.53, 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300 pivot (4300.30) invalidates the cap and reopens the london high at 4315.66
Failure to hold the 4279.53 swing low exposes the higher low at 4270.02 and the rising trendline off the ny low
A break of 4270.02 negates the higher-low sequence and puts the 4254.56 ny low back in view
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Friday liquidity thins into the close
17:17 UTC
Range, recovering off NY low · RSI 51 · price 4,290.20
Higher lows off 4254.56, capped under 4300.
London broke the Asian range high to a 4315.66 london high. NY selling after the 12:30 UTC durables print, against a hawkish Fed-pricing backdrop, then swept the Asian low to a 4254.56 day low. The rebound since has printed a higher low at 4270.02 and a swing low at 4279.53 along a rising-lows trendline, but stalled at the 4300 cap near the 61.8% fib of the London-NY drop.
Support: 4,279.53, 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300 cap (4300.30) opens a retest of the 4315.66 london high
Loss of the 4279.53 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 4270.02 higher low
Break back under the 4254.56 day low would negate the sweep and resume the NY decline
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC, about 45m out, could materially shift this read into the weekend close
17:05 UTC
Intraday range after sharp NY swing, momentum neutral · RSI 55 · price 4,287.44
Sweep of Asian low then V-rebound capped at 4300; higher lows forming off 4254.
London ran to a 4315.66 session high before NY's selloff swept the Asian low (4256.41) to a 4254.56 session low. The rebound then stalled at the psych 4300 level, the cap the digest ties to Fed hike pricing and 5%+ yields, leaving price mid-range near 4287 late in NY with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 4,279.53, 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above psych 4300 reopens the 4315.66 session high
Break of the 4279.53 swing low exposes the 4270 higher low and the rising lows line
Loss of the 4254.56 session low negates the sweep-and-recover read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker) could materially shift this read into the weekly close
16:47 UTC
Choppy recovery off NY low, capped at 4300 · RSI 52 · price 4,285.19
NY swept the Asian low, rebounded with higher lows, rejected at 4300.
After the 4315.66 london high, NY sold off through the Asian low (4256.41) to a 4254.56 ny low around the 14:00 UTC Michigan release. The rebound stalled with a rejection at the 4300.30 round number, and price now sits at the 50% fib of that drop, pinned between flat EMAs. Rising lows at 4254.56 and 4270.02 sit beneath, while ~70% October hike pricing keeps gold capped under $4,300 after London close.
Support: 4,279.53, 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300.30 round number clears the fib 61.8% and exposes the 4315.66 london high
Loss of the 4279.53 pullback low and the 4270.02 higher low breaks the ny rising lows line and brings the 4254.56 ny low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read in thin late-NY trade
London broke the Asian range high to a 4315.66 London high before NY unwound the whole move. Price undercut the 4256 Asian low to a 4254.56 NY low around the Michigan release, leaving a double bottom. The rebound has retraced about 61.8% of the drop and saw rejection at psych 4300, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and hawkish Fed pricing still capping gold.
Support: 4,284.77, 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above psych 4300 opens the path back to the 4315.66 london high
Loss of the 4284.77 pullback low and the ny rising lows trendline toward the 4270 swing low exposes the 4254.56 ny low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the weekend close
London high 4315.66 to NY low 4254.56 below the Asian low; higher lows since, capped at 4300.
Gold slid from the 4315.66 London high after firm US durables data. The drop swept the Asian low to a 4254.56 NY low in the 14:00 UTC hour, then recovered about 60% of the London-NY drop before a wick rejection at psych 4300 in mid-NY, with higher lows off the NY low and 4270 swing low holding for now.
Support: 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,300.30, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above psych 4300 exposes the 4315.66 london high
Loss of the 4270 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the NY low at 4254.56
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift this read into the weekend close
16:03 UTC
Choppy range, rebounding off NY low · RSI 48 · price 4,292.29
Asian range 4256–4296 broken both ways; higher low forming at 4270.
London's push above the 4295.7 asian high to a 4315.7 session high failed, and NY sold off through 13:00–14:00 UTC to a 4254.6 ny low, a sweep of the Asian low, as mixed-to-firm US data kept the hawkish Fed read intact. Price has since printed a higher low at 4270 and is back at the 61.8% fib of the NY drop, sitting just under the asian high and the 4300 psych pivot late in the NY session.
Support: 4,270.02, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,295.68, 4,300.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4295.7 asian high and 4300 psych reopens the 4315.7 session high
Failure to hold the 4270 higher low returns focus to the 4254.6 ny low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and the thin Friday close could materially shift this read
London high 4315.66 unwound, sweep of Asian low reclaimed, higher lows off 4254.56.
London's push to the 4315.66 session high unwound through the US morning as firm durables and Michigan data kept hawkish Fed pricing intact. The slide swept the Asian low to 4254.56 on the 14:00 UTC bar before the level was reclaimed. The rebound is now testing the 50% fib near 4285 off a higher low at 4272.72, with RSI(14) mid-40s and price still just under EMA20/50.
Support: 4,272.72, 4,254.56
Resistance: 4,295.68, 4,300.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4272.72 higher low undercuts the rebound and puts the 4254.56 session low back in play
Acceptance above the 4295.68 Asian high and the 4300 round number reopens the 4315.66 session high
Stall at the 50% fib near 4285 keeps the move a corrective retest of the breakdown
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London break of Asian high reversed; NY swept the Asian low, now printing a higher low.
London broke above the asian high at 4295.68 to a 4315.66 session high. NY then reversed the move after firm US data, and the 14:00 UTC Michigan bar swept just under the Asian low to a 4254.56 ny low before snapping back. Price is now near 4282, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that drop, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43. A higher low at the 4272.72 swing low has formed as the dollar and yields pause.
Support: 4,272.72, 4,254.56, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,285.10, 4,295.68, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 4285 and the asian high at 4295.68 would reopen the 4315.66 session high
Loss of the 4272.72 swing low breaks the NY higher low and exposes the ny low at 4254.56, then the thu low at 4244.79
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift this read into the Friday close
15:17 UTC
Intraday round-trip, rebounding from NY low · RSI 48 · price 4,280.46
London high rejected, NY swept Asian low, rebound testing 38–50% retrace.
London broke the 4295.7 Asian high and ran to a 4315.7 session high. NY fully reversed it after the mixed durables data and swept the 4256.4 Asian low to 4254.6 around the Michigan print. The bounce has retraced about 42% of that drop and is stalling at the 4282.7 rebound high below the 50% fib near 4285, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 4,269.80, 4,256.40, 4,244.80
Resistance: 4,282.70, 4,295.70, 4,315.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4282.7 rebound high and the 50% fib (~4285) opens the path back to the 4295.7 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4269.8 higher low puts the 4256.4 Asian low and 4244.8 Thursday low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the Friday close
15:04 UTC
Intraday downswing from London peak, NY bounce in progress · RSI 43 · price 4,280.97
London high at 4315.66 rejected; NY slide swept the Asian low, then reclaimed it with a short higher-low chain.
Gold was rejected at the 4315.66 London high. The slide gathered pace into early NY as firm durables and Michigan prints landed, sweeping the 4256.41 Asian low to a 4254.56 session low before recovering. Price is now back inside the Asian range and pressing the 38.2–50% fib zone (4278–4285), where EMA20/50 have converged near 4285 just above the 4284.3 breakdown level.
Support: 4,269.80, 4,254.60, 4,244.80
Resistance: 4,284.30, 4,295.70, 4,315.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4284.3 breakdown level and the 4285 fib 50%/EMA cluster opens the path to the 4295.7 asian high and the 4300 handle
Failure to hold the 4269.8 higher low puts the 4254.6 session low back in play; below it, the 4244.8 thursday low
4315.7 london high remains the day's cap; the move retains a lower-high profile while price holds below it
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift October-hike pricing and this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the London high, bouncing off the NY low · RSI 35 · price 4,270.36
Lower highs from 4315.66, Asian low swept to 4254.56 and reclaimed.
London stalled at the 4315.66 session high, and NY hours unwound the whole move as firm US durables/capex and Michigan prints hit. The 14:00 UTC bar swept below the Asian low to a 4254.56 sweep low before closing back near 4267. Price is now pinned under the 13:15 UTC breakdown zone near 4278, which also sits at the 38.2% retracement of the drop, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,278.00, 4,295.68, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4278 breakdown / 38.2% retracement opens a deeper retracement toward the 4295.68 asian high
Failure to hold the 4254.56 sweep low exposes the 4244.79 thursday low
Only a reclaim of the 4315.66 session high negates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift October-hike pricing and this read into the Friday close
London high rejected, NY lower highs into sweep of Asian low.
London cleared the 4295.68 Asian high to a 4315.66 London high. NY reversed the whole move after the firm durables and UoM prints, briefly sweeping the 4256 Asian low to a 4254.56 NY low before demand stepped in. RSI(14) sits near 31 with price below both EMAs, and the 4278 breakdown level (38.2% of the NY sell-off fib) overhead.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,277.93, 4,295.68, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4278 breakdown opens the path to the 4295.68 asian high
Failure to hold the 4254.56 ny low exposes the 4244.79 thursday low
Reclaim of the 4315.66 london high would negate the NY sell-off read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4315.66 session high; NY selloff probing the Asian range low.
London's rally to the 4315.66 session high unwound through NY hours. After the break of the 4296.8 London base, the 14:00 UTC UoM bar spiked to 4254.56, briefly sweeping the 4256.41 Asian low. That NY selloff has left price pinned near the Asian low with RSI(14) near 29, ATR(14) about $10 and the fib 38.2 at 4277.9 overhead.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,277.90, 4,296.80
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4254.56 uom low exposes the 4244.79 thu low, this week's floor
M15 close back above 4277.9 (fib 38.2) would mark the UoM low as a completed sweep
Reclaim of the 4296.8 london base invalidates the NY selloff read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, NY lower highs, back inside Asian range.
London cleared the asian high at 4295.7 to a london high of 4315.7. NY then rejected it with lower highs along the descending trendline, and the 13:15 UTC ny breakdown through 4278 erased the whole London leg as the hawkish Fed and yield backdrop reasserted after muted durable goods. Price sits near the 78.6% fib of the 4256–4315 move, just above the 4264 asia shelf, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.41, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,278.00, 4,295.68, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) land in the current bar and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4264 asia shelf exposes the 4256.4 asian low, then the 4244.8 thu low
An M15 close back above the 4278 ny breakdown level and the descending trendline would weaken the false-break read, with the asian high at 4295.7 above
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a second risk window for this read
13:32 UTC
Intraday down leg, London gains unwinding · RSI 36 · price 4,276.85
False break above Asian range; lower high at 4309, back inside range.
London's yield-pullback rebound cleared the 4295.68 Asian high and ran to a 4315.66 session high. The next bounce stalled at a lower high near 4309, and early NY hours then dropped back through the asian high. Price is now just under the 61.8% fib of the 4256–4315 London leg around 4279, with RSI(14) near 36 and the overnight low at 4264 below.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.41, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,279.00, 4,296.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1-yr f/c 4.6%, 5-yr f/c 3.4%) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above 4296 (asian high) would negate the false-break read
Failure to hold the 4264 overnight low exposes the 4256.41 asian low, then the 4244.79 thursday low
A reclaim of the 61.8% fib at 4279 would mark the drop as a retracement rather than a full unwind
Hammack at 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled swing factor after UoM
London push above Asian high rejected at 4315.66; lower highs since, 4297 shelf broken, price back at Asian high.
London cleared the 4295.68 asian high and ran to a 4315.66 session high as yields and the dollar paused, but supply has capped two lower highs near 4309 since 11:00 UTC. The 13:00 UTC bar broke the 4297 shelf, putting price back at the asian high and the 38.2% retrace of the move off the 4256.41 asian low.
Support: 4,286.47, 4,271.21, 4,256.41
Resistance: 4,295.68, 4,309.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1-yr f/c 4.6%) could materially shift this read; Hammack at 18:00 UTC follows
M15 close back above the 4309 lower highs reopens the 4315.66 session high
Failure to hold the 4286.47 swing low (near the 50% retrace) exposes the 4271 london base
A break of the 4256.41 asian low would fully unwind the London advance
Asian range broken higher; lower highs off the 4315.66 session high.
London broke the Asian high at 4295.7 and set a 4315.66 session high. Early NY, after mixed Durable Goods, has faded price back below the 4300 round number, printing a lower high at 4309.5 and retesting the Asian high near the 38.2% fib of the 4256–4315 leg, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,295.70, 4,289.60, 4,271.20
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,309.50, 4,315.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4295.7 Asian high exposes the 4289.6 swing low and the 50% fib near 4286
Loss of 4289.6 would break the London higher-low chain and bring the 4271.2 London low into view
Reclaim of the 4309.5 lower high reopens the 4315.7 session high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, then Hammack at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 57 · price 4,302.60
London break above Asian range, retest of 4,295–4,300 with a lower high at 4309.
London cleared the Asian high at 4295.7 and the $4,300 handle as USD and yields paused. The move topped at a 4315.7 session high at 11:00 UTC, and price is now retesting the breakout zone, with a pullback low at 4297.6 and a lower high at 4309.5. The Durable Goods print lands on the current bar at the start of NY hours, RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and ATR is roughly $7.6.
Support: 4,297.60, 4,295.70, 4,271.20
Resistance: 4,309.50, 4,315.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4297.6 pullback low and the 4295.7 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and breaks the London trendline
Reclaim of the 4309.5 lower high reopens the 4315.7 session high
Failure below 4290 exposes the 4271.2 London low, near the 38.2% fib of the 4256–4316 leg
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; Hammack at 18:00 UTC
12:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 57 · price 4,300.43
HH/HL from 4256.41 low; retesting Asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 4295.68 as the USD/yield pause extended, running to a 4315.66 session high. Price is now back on the 4300 psych handle, retesting the Asian high from above, with a 4308.63 lower high capping. RSI(14) has cooled to ~57.
Support: 4,295.68, 4,289.63
Resistance: 4,308.63, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT can reset the session range
M15 close back below the asian high at 4295.68 turns the breakout into a false break; fib 38.2% near 4293 and the 4289.63 swing low sit below
M15 close above the 4308.63 lower high reopens the 4315.66 session high
12:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 61 · price 4,302.16
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London broke Asian high, now retesting.
London cleared the Asian high at 4295.68 and ran to a 4315.66 session high as the USD and yields paused. Price has eased to the 4299.83 pullback low and 4300 area, near the 23.6% fib, into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) cooled to ~61 and the rising trendline from the 4256 Asian low tracking just below near 4298.
Support: 4,299.83, 4,295.68, 4,286.04
Resistance: 4,315.66
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read. Hammack follows at 18:00 GMT.
A close below the 4299.83 pullback low puts the asian high at 4295.68 and the rising trendline under test.
Acceptance back below 4295.68 returns price to the Asian range and opens the fib 50% at 4286.04.
An M15 close above the 4315.66 session high extends the HH chain.
11:17 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot near session high · RSI 79 · price 4,312.74
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, Asian range broken to the upside.
London broke the Asian high at 4295.68 and extended to a 4315.66 session high. The move built a clean HH/HL chain off the 4256.41 Asian low, in line with the USD/yield pause. RSI(14) near 79 is hot but not extreme, with the latest swing low at 4302.26 holding just above the $4,300 handle.
Support: 4,302.26, 4,295.68, 4,289.63
Resistance: 4,315.66
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4302.26 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and trendline support
Loss of the 4295.68 asian high, near the rally fib 38.2% at ~4293, would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 4289.63 higher low
A close above the 4315.66 session high extends the HH sequence toward the digest's $4,354 resistance zone top
11:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into London · RSI 74 · price 4,311.50
Higher highs and higher lows since the 05:00 UTC low; Asian range broken higher.
London broke the Asian high at 4,295.68 and cleared the $4,300 pivot. That extends the chain of higher highs and higher lows from the 4,256.41 swing low to a session high at 4,311.78, with a shallow pullback low at 4,302.26 so far. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme, and the lift fits the digest's modest USD pullback ahead of US Durable Goods.
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the first hours of NY
M15 close back below the 4,302 pullback low and the $4,300 pivot puts the Asian-high breakout at risk of a false break
Loss of the 4,289.63 swing low, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4,311.78 session high exposes the $4,300–4,354 resistance zone, with 4,350 first
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since 05:00 UTC · RSI 74 · price 4,305.35
London broke above the Asian range high; holding just under the new session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 4295.68 around 10:00 UTC and reclaimed the 4300 round number on a modest USD pullback. It printed a 4309.61 session high, and the chain of higher lows since the 4256.41 swing low is intact. RSI(14) sits near 74, hot but not extreme.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,295.68, 4,289.63
Resistance: 4,309.61, 4,350.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4295.68 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 4289.63 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline and the higher-low chain
Close above the 4309.61 session high opens the path toward the 4350 resist zone
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4256.41 London low; Asian high and 4300 cleared.
Mid-London, gold cleared the 4295.68 Asian high and 4300 psych in the 10:00 UTC bar and set a session high at 4309.61. The move extends a higher-low chain off the 4256.41 London low as the USD pauses. RSI(14) near 72 is warm but not stretched, and the 4289.63 higher low sits on the 38.2% fib and the London rising trendline.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,295.68, 4,289.63
Resistance: 4,309.61, 4,350.00
What it said to watch
Holding 4300 psych keeps the breakout intact; a close back below the 4295.68 asian high marks a false break
A close above the 4309.61 session high opens the path toward 4350 psych
Loss of the 4289.63 higher low (38.2% fib) also breaks the London rising trendline
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Asian low · RSI 76 · price 4,306.17
London break above Asian range high and 4300.
London cleared the Asian high at 4295.68 and the 4300 psych level, printing a 4308.27 session high on the 10:00 UTC bar. The move extends a higher-low chain off the 4256.41 Asian low, with the 4289.63 swing low as the latest pivot. It comes on a modest USD pullback ahead of US data, with RSI(14) hot near 76.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,295.68, 4,289.63
Resistance: 4,308.27, 4,350.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4295.68 asian high would mark the 4300 break as a false break
Loss of the 4289.63 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the intraday uptrend read
Fib 50% of the Asian low to session high move sits near 4282 as the deeper retracement marker
Acceptance above the 4308.27 session high opens the 4350 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 4256 Asian low, testing the Asian high.
Mid-London, gold has extended the rebound off the 4256.41 Asian low into a clean HH/HL chain along a rising trendline. It is now edging past the 4295.68 Asian high and the 4297.96 session high, just under the 4300 psych pivot, as the USD eases off its highs. RSI(14) near 71 is warm but not stretched; the 09:15 swing low at 4289.63 is the latest higher low.
Support: 4,295.68, 4,289.63, 4,271.21
Resistance: 4,297.96, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4300 psych clears the session high and the pivot flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 4289.63 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the Asian high back in question
Break of the rising trendline and the 4271.21 london low would unwind most of the London leg toward the Asian low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London higher-low chain from the Asian low; price at the Asian-range top.
London retraced the whole Asian range, climbing from the 4256 asian low to retest the 4296–4298 session high, where supply is capping just under the 4300 psych level. RSI(14) sits near 70 and Williams' 09:15 UTC remarks drew little reaction, with the 4290 swing low holding pullbacks so far.
Support: 4,289.60, 4,271.20, 4,256.40
Resistance: 4,298.00, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4300 psych breaks the double cap at the session high
Loss of the 4289.6 swing low turns the London climb into a rejection at 4298
Break of the rising London trendline and the 4271 london low puts the 4256 asian low back in play
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 4256 Asian low; Asian high tested, no close above.
London extended the higher-low chain off the 4256 Asian low, with the USD pausing near 101.00. Price printed a 4297.96 session high just above the 4295.68 Asian high, but no M15 close has held above it, leaving a rejection just under the 4300 round number. Williams' 09:15 UTC remarks produced only a shallow dip to the 4289.63 swing low; RSI(14) sits near 62, below the hot zone.
Support: 4,289.63, 4,282.09, 4,271.21
Resistance: 4,295.68, 4,297.96, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4300 round number clears the asian high and session high cap
A break of the 4289.63 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 at 4282 and the rising trendline
Loss of the 4271.21 london low breaks the higher-low chain from 4256
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the 4256 Asia low; London testing the Asian range high.
London session extended the higher-low chain off the 4256 asia low. It printed a session high at 4298, just above the 4295.7 Asian high, but has not cleared the 4300 psych pivot, with price hovering about $20 above the rising trendline. The USD pause after its two-month high gives the move room, but Williams at 09:15 UTC lands right at the level.
Support: 4,288.50, 4,271.20, 4,256.40
Resistance: 4,298.00, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300 psych pivot turns the Asian high test into a range break
Slip back below the 4288.5 ny high leaves the Asian high as a false break
Close below the london low at 4271 breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Fib 50% near 4277 is the midpoint of the move from the asia low
HH/HL chain; London pressing the Asian high just below 4300.
London extended the rebound from the 4256.41 Asia-session low. It edged past the 4295.68 Asian high to a 4297.30 session high, just under the 4300 round number, with RSI(14) near 71 and higher lows holding along the rising trendline. The move tracks overnight USD softness as easing oil and yields trimmed the dollar's rally.
Support: 4,295.68, 4,281.70, 4,271.21
Resistance: 4,297.30, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4300 round number extends the breakout beyond the Asian high and session high
Close back below the 4295.68 Asian high marks a false break; the rebound's fib 38.2 at 4281.7 is next
A break of the rising trendline and the 4271.21 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
08:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 63 · price 4,293.20
Higher-low chain from Asian low; top of the Asian range under test.
Gold has printed higher lows since the 4256.4 Asian low, riding a rising trendline through London. It has cleared yesterday's 4288.5 NY high and is testing the 4295.7 Asian high just under the 4300 pivot, helped by the USD pause and softer oil on Hormuz headlines. RSI(14) near 63 leaves room before the M15 gets stretched.
Support: 4,288.50, 4,271.20, 4,256.40
Resistance: 4,295.70, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4295.7 Asian high and 4300 pivot breaks the Asian range to the upside
Rejection at 4300 with a close back below the 4288.5 NY high returns price to the range
Break of the rising trendline and the 4271.2 London low ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 4256.4 Asian low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
08:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 4256 low, inside wider range · RSI 61 · price 4,284.73
London higher-low chain pressing prior NY spike high; 4245–4296 range intact.
Gold has retraced roughly 72% of the Asia fade from 4295.68 to 4256.41. London is printing steady higher lows along the HL trendline and pressing into yesterday's 4288.54 NY spike high (prior high), with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched, as USD eases on Hormuz talk headlines.
Support: 4,271.21, 4,256.41, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,288.54, 4,295.68, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4288.54 prior high opens the 4295.68 asia high and 4300 psych
Break of the HL trendline and the 4271.21 london low exposes the 4256.41 asia low, then the 4244.79 prior low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a 24h range · RSI 63 · price 4,283.68
Higher lows off the 4256 Asian low, pressing range upper half.
The first hour of London has extended the rebound from the 4256.4 Asian low. Higher lows at 4271.2 and 4275 carried price back above the 61.8% of the Asia drop fib to 4284, just under the 4288.5 prior high and 4295.7 Asian high, as the USD eased from its two-month high on softer oil. The wider 24h structure is still a 4245–4296 range.
Support: 4,271.20, 4,256.40, 4,244.80
Resistance: 4,288.50, 4,295.70, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4295.7 Asian high breaks the 24h range and brings 4300 psych into view
Close below the 4271.2 London low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 4256.4 Asian low
Failure to hold the 4244.8 weekly low confirms a range break lower
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is running near 730 pips
08:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing a flat cap · RSI 56 · price 4,281.12
Higher lows from 4256.4 into a flat 4282 cap, early London.
The Asia push to the 4295.7 Asia high met rejection and faded to a 4256.4 session low before London. Since then price has built higher lows, the latest at the 4271.2 London low, and is pressing the 4282 intraday cap. That cap sits at the 61.8% retracement of the drop. Firm yields and a strong USD keep gold heavy above Thursday's 4245 weekly low, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 4,271.20, 4,256.40, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,282.00, 4,295.70, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4282 intraday cap opens the path to the 4295.7 Asia high and the 4300 round number
Break of the rising trendline and the 4271.2 London low undoes the higher-low chain, exposing the 4256.4 session low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could materially shift this read; Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC follows
Loss of 4256.4 puts the 4245 weekly low back in focus
Higher lows off 4256.4 asia low, capped at 4281.5.
Early London trade sits inside the Asian range (4256.4–4295.7). The rebound from the asia low has printed higher lows up to 4271.2 but stalls under the 4281.5 swing high, near the 61.8% of the Asia drop fib. Firm yields and a strong USD keep the bounce tentative, with Thursday's weekly low at 4244.3 the floor below.
Support: 4,271.20, 4,256.40, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,281.50, 4,295.70, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.5 swing high clears the 61.8% cap and exposes the 4295.7 asia high and the 4300 round number
Break of the 4271.2 higher low and the higher-low trendline turns the rebound into a lower-high sequence back toward the 4256.4 asia low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4295.68 Asia high; London compressing 4271–4281.
Asia ran to the 4295.68 Asia high, then slid to the 4256.41 Asia low at 05:00 UTC. The rebound met rejection at the 4281.52 swing high near the 61.8% retrace. Early London is compressing between the 4271.48 London low and that swing high, with price pinned on flat EMAs and RSI(14) neutral near 52, as firm yields and USD after hawkish Fedspeak keep gold heavy above Thursday's 4244.79 weekly low.
Support: 4,271.48, 4,256.41, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,281.52, 4,295.68, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.52 swing high (61.8% retrace) reopens the 4295.68 Asia high and the 4300 round number
Break of the 4271.48 London low exposes the 4256.41 Asia low, then the 4244.79 weekly low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could break the London range
Descending resistance from the Asia high is still capping rebounds; a close above it shifts the lower-high read
4245–4296 range; higher low at 4256.4, capped at 4281.5.
The Asian high at 4295.68 was rejected and price slid to a 4256.41 session low by 05:00 UTC, printing a higher low above yesterday's 4245 weekly low. Early London is retesting the 50–61.8% fib zone, capped at the 4281.5 swing high, while firm yields and a bid USD keep the rebound shallow. RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 4,265.70, 4,256.41, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,281.52, 4,295.68, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.5 swing high opens the asian high at 4295.7 and the 4300 psych level
Break of the 4265.7 higher low and the trendline shifts focus back to the 4256.4 session low
Failure to hold 4256.4 exposes the 4245 weekly low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Short-term recovery inside Asian range · RSI 55 · price 4,279.65
Higher lows off 4256.4 Asian low, capped by 4281.5 swing high.
London open finds gold mid-Asian range (4256.4–4295.7). Asia faded its early push to the asian high into a 4256.4 asian low, and the rebound has since printed a higher low at 4265.7 and another at 4274.3. Price is now pressing the 4281.5 swing high near the 61.8% of the asian fib, with firm yields and a bid USD keeping the metal heavy above Thursday's 4244 low.
Support: 4,274.30, 4,256.40, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,281.50, 4,295.70, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.5 swing high clears the 61.8% asian fib level and opens 4295.7 asian high, then the 4300 round number
Loss of the 4274.3 higher low breaks the asian low trendline and the higher-low chain
Break below the 4256.4 asian low exposes the thursday low at 4244.3, near the weekly low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Sideways, recovering off the Asian low · RSI 50 · price 4,276.67
Asian range 4256–4296; higher lows since 05:00 UTC, London about to open.
The post-rollover pop to the 4296 Asian high faded to a 4256 Asian low. Price has since printed a higher low at 4266 and sits at the 50% retracement near 4277, just under the 4281.5 swing high, with London yet to open. Yesterday's twin lows at 4245 near the weekly low held, but a firm USD and hawkish Fed repricing capped the NY rebound at the 4288.5 prior high.
Support: 4,265.70, 4,256.41, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,281.52, 4,288.54, 4,295.68
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 4266 higher low returns focus to the 4256 Asian low, then the 4245 twin lows
M15 close above the 4281.5 swing high and 4288.5 prior high puts the 4296 Asian high back in play
A London break of the Asian range would end the rangebound read
06:32 UTC
Range, drifting off Asian high · RSI 52 · price 4,275.46
Lower highs from 4295.68, higher low at 4265.70.
Late Asia, ahead of London open: gold faded the 4295.68 Asian high to 4256.41 and has since retraced to the 50% of that drop near 4276. The 4281.52 push was rejected just above the 61.8% level, leaving a lower high. Price sits on EMA20/50 with RSI(14) at 52, inside the Asian range, with firm yields and a bid USD keeping rallies capped.
Support: 4,265.70, 4,256.41, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,281.52, 4,295.68, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.52 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 4295.68 Asian high, then 4300 psych
Loss of the 4265.70 swing low reopens the 4256.41 Asian low, then the Thursday 4244.29 weekly low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sideways, recovering off Asian low · RSI 47 · price 4,275.99
Asian range 4256–4296, price mid-range at 50% retrace.
Gold's Asia push to the 4295.68 asian high was rejected and fully reversed to a 4256.41 asian low, with firm yields and a hawkish Fed read keeping rallies short-lived. Late Asia has printed a higher low at 4265.70, but price is stalling at the 4275–4277 intraday cap, the 50% level of the Asian fade fib, ahead of London open.
Support: 4,265.70, 4,256.41, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,277.17, 4,288.54, 4,295.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4277.17 intraday cap opens the 4288.54 spike high, then the 4295.68 asian high
Loss of the 4265.70 higher low puts the 4256.41 asian low back in play; below that, the 4244–4245 weekly low double-tap from yesterday
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range 4244.8–4295.7; Asia spike above it fully reversed, lower high at 4275.8.
Asia pushed through yesterday's 4288.5 NY spike to an Asian high of 4295.7, then fully reversed to an Asian low of 4256.4 as firm yields and hawkish-Fed pricing weighed. The bounce met rejection twice at 4275.8, the 50% retrace of that drop, leaving a lower high with price back below both EMAs an hour before London open.
Support: 4,256.40, 4,244.80
Resistance: 4,275.80, 4,295.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4256.4 asian low exposes the 4244.8 weekly low
Close above the 4275.8 lower high negates the lower-highs read and reopens 4295.7
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Sideways, Asian down-leg being retraced · RSI 52 · price 4,274.19
24h range 4244–4296; Asian lower-high chain broken by V-bounce off 4256.
Asia stalled at the 4295.7 asian high, just under the 4296 prior-day high, then faded in lower highs to a 4256.4 session low. A late-Asia V-bounce broke the Asian trendline and is now pressing the 4275.5 bounce high at the 50% fib of that drop, with price sitting on EMA20/50. Gold is still heavy on firm yields and a bid USD, and the 24h range holds above Thursday's 4244.3 weekly low.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.41, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,275.47, 4,288.54, 4,295.68
What it said to watch
London open tests the 4275.5 bounce high: a close above it and the 61.8% fib near 4280.7 puts the 4288.5 spike high back in play
Failure back below the 4264 prior lows re-exposes the 4256.4 session low, then the 4244.3 weekly low
Rejection again at the 4295.7 asian high keeps the range read intact
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Downtrend from the Asian high, bouncing off 4256 · RSI 36 · price 4,264.60
Lower highs and lower lows since 4295.7; retesting the broken Asian range floor.
The early-Asia spike to the 4295.7 Asian high faded into a steady lower-high sequence under firm yields and USD, breaking the 4264 range floor to a 4256.4 Asian low. Late Asia, price has bounced back to retest that floor and the descending trendline near 4265. Yesterday's 4244.8 weekly low sits below, with the 4273.5 lower high capping above.
Support: 4,256.40, 4,244.80
Resistance: 4,273.50, 4,295.70, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline and 4273.5 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2–50% fib zone
Failure below the 4256.4 Asian low exposes the 4244.8 weekly low
A reclaim of the 4295.7 Asian high puts 4300 psych in play
Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 35 · price 4,259.25
LH/LL sequence from the 4295.7 Asia high; Asia base at 4264 broken.
The Asia session rally to the 4295.7 asia high has fully unwound into a steady lower-high/lower-low chain. Price slipped back below the 4264 asia base to a 4256.4 session low as firm yields and a bid USD weigh. Thursday's twice-tested 4245 weekly low is the next reference below, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) around 600 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 4,256.40, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,264.40, 4,273.50, 4,295.70
What it said to watch
Break of the 4256.4 session low exposes the 4245 weekly low
Reclaim of the 4264 asia base, then a close above the 4273.5 lower high and the descending trendline, breaks the lower-high sequence
Asia decline fib 38.2% at ~4271 sits just under the 4273.5 lower high, a zone to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off Asian high · RSI 28 · price 4,262.52
Double top at 4295.7 Asian high, LH/LL sequence into fresh session low.
Late Asia: the 4295.7 Asian high was rejected twice, capping price just under Thursday's 4296 high, and the retreat has since cut below the 4264 midnight low to 4261 in a lower-high trendline sequence. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 28, as firm yields and a strong USD weigh. Thursday's 4256 swing low and the 4245 weekly low are the references below.
Support: 4,256.30, 4,244.80
Resistance: 4,273.50, 4,295.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4273.5 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4256 swing low exposes the 4245 weekly low; a break there extends the weekly low
London open in ~2h may set the next session range against the 4295.7 Asian high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Intraday down-leg inside a broader range · RSI 36 · price 4,271.60
Lower highs since Asian high, 4245–4296 range intact.
The Asian session rally from the 4264.4 asian low to the 4295.7 asian high has been almost fully unwound. It printed lower highs along a descending trendline, and price at 4271.6 sits near the 78.6% retrace, just under EMA20/50 in late Asia. The wider 4245–4296 range holds, with Thursday's twin tests of the 4245 week low absorbed during London and NY as hawkish Fed repricing kept gold heavy.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,288.50, 4,295.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4264.4 asian low exposes the 4245 week low
Recovery through the descending trendline and the 4288.5 spike high reopens the 4295.7 asian high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off the Asia high · RSI 40 · price 4,268.42
Asia rally fully faded; price near the bottom of the 4264–4296 Asian range.
Late Asia session: the rally from the 4264 asia low stalled in a double top at the 4295.7 asia high, just under Thursday's 4296 high. Since the break of the 4286.5 neckline, price has printed lower highs every bar under a falling trendline and sits below the 4276 range top and the asia rally fib 61.8%, with 10y yields above 5.1% and a firm USD keeping gold heavy. RSI(14) at 40 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,264.37, 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,276.00, 4,286.47, 4,295.68
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asia low at 4264.4 breaks the Asian range and exposes the ny low at 4256.3, then the prior low near 4245
Reclaim of the range top at 4276 (asia rally fib 61.8%) and the falling trendline would stall the lower-high sequence
Recovery above the neckline at 4286.5 undercuts the double top read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4296 session high, inside Asian range.
The Asian rally from 4264 stalled at the 4296 session high, level with Thursday's Asia peak, and a lower-highs sequence has since retraced nearly 80% of the move. Price sits below the ema20 near 4278 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 40, as a firm USD and 5%+ yields keep gold capped under $4,300 heading into the London open.
Support: 4,264.37, 4,256.27, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,278.00, 4,295.68
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4264 asian low completes the Asian retrace and exposes the 4256 swing low from Thursday NY
M15 close above the 4278 ema20 and lower-highs trendline invalidates the fade read, with the 4288 swing high next
The 4244 prior low, Thursday's double low near the one-week low, is the floor beneath
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from session high · RSI 45 · price 4,274.11
Lower highs off a 4295.7 double top, mid-range between 4264 and 4296.
The Asia session rally off the 4264.4 asian low was rejected twice at 4295–4296. That session high also capped Thursday's Asian range, and the move has since retraced past 61.8% of the leg on a chain of lower highs, now sitting just under ema50 near 4274. Thursday's drop to the week low near 4245 came as Treasury yields and the USD surged on hawkish Fed repricing, leaving price mid-band late in the Asia session.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.30, 4,244.80
Resistance: 4,288.50, 4,295.70
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4264.4 asian low exposes the 4256.3 swing low, then the 4245 week low
M15 close above the 4288.5 ny spike hi breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4295.7 session high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations later Friday, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday bounce fading, lower highs since session high · RSI 52 · price 4,277.59
Asian range breakout to 4295.7, now retesting asian top near 61.8% fib.
Mid-Asia, gold broke out of its 4264–4276 early range and hit a 4295.7 session high. It has since printed a chain of lower highs back to the asian top, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the breakout leg. Thursday's London selloff on firm yields and USD twice found a floor at the 4244 prior low, and the Asian bounce has not held its gains.
Support: 4,276.30, 4,264.40, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,286.30, 4,295.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4276 asian top puts price inside the range and exposes the 4264.4 asian low
Reclaim of the 4286.3 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
Loss of 4264.4 reopens yesterday's 4244 prior low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then US Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Asian range breakout, higher low at 4277.7 under a lower high.
Gold broke above the 4264–4276 Asian range after 00:45 UTC and stalled at 4295.7. That is just shy of the 4296–4297 prior high, with a lower high at 4292.3. The pullback retested the breakout zone and held a swing low at 4277.7, near the 61.8% level of the Asia leg fib and on the higher-low line. The move recovers part of Thursday's yield- and USD-driven slide to the 4245 prior low. RSI(14) ~57 is neutral, and the price sits just above EMA20.
Support: 4,277.70, 4,264.40, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,292.30, 4,296.00, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4277.7 swing low breaks the higher-low line and puts price back inside the Asian range, exposing the 4264.4 asian low
M15 close above the 4292.3 lower high and the 4296 prior high puts the 4300 round number in play
Asian range breakout, pullback holding near 61.8% fib.
Mid-Asia session: gold broke the 4264–4276 Asian range higher after 00:45 UTC and stalled at a 4295.68 session high, just under the 4296.99 prior high and the 4300 psych level, with the firm USD and 5%+ yields capping the bounce. The pullback set a swing low at 4277.68, near the 61.8% fib of the leg from the 4264.37 Asian low, and the rising Asian lows line holds; RSI(14) ~57, ATR(14) ~700 pips.
Support: 4,277.68, 4,264.37
Resistance: 4,295.68, 4,296.99, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4277.68 swing low breaks the rising Asian lows line and turns the breakout into a false break back toward the 4264.37 Asian low
Close above the 4296.99 prior high clears the double cap at the session high and opens the 4300 psych level
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC during London hours could materially shift this read via October hike pricing
Asia breakout above 4276 range top, now pulling back from 4295.7 session high.
Mid-Asia session, gold broke out of Thursday's late 4264–4276 range and cleared the 4288.5 NY spike high. Two tests of the 4295.7 session high failed just shy of Thursday's 4297 high and the 4300 round number, where supply has capped the bounce with 10y yields above 5.1%. The pullback is holding the 4282.3 pullback low, near the 38.2% retracement of the 4264.4–4295.7 leg.
Support: 4,282.30, 4,276.00, 4,264.40
Resistance: 4,295.70, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4295.7 session high and 4300 round number invalidates the rejection read
Loss of the 4282.3 pullback low opens a retest of the 4276 range top / 61.8% fib
Break back below the 4264.4 asian low negates the Asia breakout
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Gold built a double bottom near 4245 yesterday and has since made rising lows. Early Asia broke the 4264–4276 Asian range, but the move was capped twice at the 4295.7 session high, just under yesterday's 4297 prior high. Price is holding above the 4286.5 swing low with RSI(14) cooling toward 60. This comes despite a firm USD and October hike pricing in the macro backdrop.
Support: 4,286.50, 4,276.00, 4,264.40
Resistance: 4,295.70, 4,297.00, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4297 prior high and 4300 round number extends the breakout; a second failure at 4295.7 keeps the rejection in play
Loss of the 4286.5 swing low opens a retest of the Asian top at 4276, which is also the 38.2% fib
Back below 4264.4 asian low negates the breakout and returns focus to the rising lows line
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia range break, higher low at 4286.5 under a flat 4295 cap.
The Asia rally broke the 4264–4276 overnight range and reclaimed Thursday's 4288.5 NY spike high. It printed a 4295.7 session high, which has capped two tests so far, while the 4286.5 swing low holds underneath. The bounce runs against the firm-USD, 5%+ yield backdrop that drove Thursday's slide to the 4245 double low. RSI(14) sits at 63, not stretched.
Support: 4,286.47, 4,280.00, 4,264.37
Resistance: 4,295.68, 4,300.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4295.7 session high opens the 4300.7 day high and the 4300 area
Loss of the 4286.5 swing low exposes the fib 50% of the Asia rally near 4280, then the asian low at 4264.4
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 4245 double bottom; Asian range broken higher.
Gold broke out of the 4264.4–4276.0 Asian range after 00:45 UTC and ran to a 4295.7 session high, stalling just under Thursday's 4297.0 prior high and the 4300 psych level despite the firm-USD, 5%+ yield backdrop. The move extends a higher-lows chain off the 4245 double bottom, with the 38.2% fib of that leg sitting on the asian high. RSI(14) has cooled to ~64 on the pullback to 4286.5.
Support: 4,286.50, 4,276.00, 4,264.40
Resistance: 4,295.70, 4,297.00, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4297.0 prior high and 4300 psych extends the higher-lows sequence
Loss of the 4286.5 pullback low puts the 4276.0 asian high and 38.2% fib retest in play
Close back below the 4264.4 asian low and the higher-lows trendline negates the Asian breakout
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC during London could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4245 double low; Asian range broken higher.
Gold broke out of the 4264–4276 Asian range in the first hours of Asia. It cleared the 4288 NY high and printed a 4295.68 session high, with RSI(14) near 67. The move extends the higher-lows sequence off Thursday's 4245 double low despite the firm USD and 5%+ yield backdrop, and the 4300 psych and 4303 24h high now sit overhead.
Support: 4,276.00, 4,264.40
Resistance: 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4303 24h high and 4300 psych would extend the breakout beyond the session high
Failure to hold the 4288 NY high puts the 4276 Asia top and 38.2% fib back in play
Break of the higher-lows trendline near the 4264 Asia low negates the recovery structure
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, double bottom off 4245 confirmed above 4288.5.
Mid-Asia session, gold broke the 4264–4276 Asian range and cleared the 4288.5 NY spike high to a 4294.22 session high, completing a double bottom off Thursday's 4245 lows. RSI(14) is near 71 as price presses toward the 4300 round number and the 4303 prior high. The move runs against the digest's firm-USD, 5%+ yield backdrop.
Support: 4,288.54, 4,275.98, 4,264.37
Resistance: 4,294.22, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4288.5 NY spike high would turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 4303 prior high, just above 4300, would cap the Asian move under the round number
Loss of the 4276 Asian high, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, unwinds the breakout; the higher-lows trendline runs toward the 4264 Asian low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, ahead of Durables and UoM, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, double-bottom neckline cleared.
Early in the Asia session, gold broke out of the 4264–4276 Asian range and cleared the 4288 neckline of Thursday's double bottom at 4245/4244.8. The two-bar push added about $26 and lifted RSI(14) near 67, despite the hawkish-Fed and 5.1% yield backdrop that drove the 4250 test. Price now presses the 4300 round number, just under Thursday's 4303 prior high.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4288 neckline would turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 4300 round number / 4303 prior high caps the higher-lows trendline move; a close above extends it
Loss of the 4264 asian low breaks the higher-lows structure and exposes the 4245 swing low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift yields and USD, materially changing this read
Asian range break higher, testing 61.8% of Thursday's decline.
Firm USD and 5%+ yields drove Thursday's slide from the 4303 prior day high to a 4245 day low, which held twice through London and NY. Early Asia has broken above the 4264–4276 Asian range into the 61.8% fib of that decline near 4281, riding a rising-lows line, with the 4285 prior high and 4288.5 spike high just overhead.
Support: 4,276.00, 4,264.40, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,285.00, 4,288.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4276 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 4285 prior high and 4288.5 spike high opens the 4303 prior day hi
Loss of the 4264 asian low and the rising-lows line exposes the 4245 day low
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Sideways after Thursday's selloff, range contracting · RSI 51 · price 4,271.51
Asian range 4264–4276 inside lower highs and higher lows.
Early Asia session is coiling inside a 4264.4–4276.0 range: the asian low and asian high sit between lower highs from the 4288.5 NY spike high and higher lows off the 4256.3 swing low. Thursday's double btm near 4245 held after firm yields and a stronger USD drove the one-week low. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and price is hugging EMA20.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,276.00, 4,281.60, 4,288.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4276.0 asian high and the lower-highs line puts the 4281.6 swing high and 4288.5 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 4264.4 asian low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4256.3 swing low, then the 4245 double btm
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could break the Asian range; any explicit October hike endorsement adds pressure on the 4245 area
Tightening consolidation, lower highs vs higher lows.
Asia capped at the 4276 Asian high and has slipped to the 4264 late-NY low, which held twice. Lower highs from the rejected 4288.5 spike high and higher lows off the 4256 swing low are compressing price. Gold stays pinned below $4,300 on 5%+ 10y yields and a firm USD.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,276.00, 4,281.60, 4,288.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4264 late-NY low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4256 swing low, then the 4245 day low
M15 close above the 4276 Asian high and the lower-highs line reopens the 4281.6 swing high and 4288.5 spike high
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Heavy, lower highs since the 4303 Asia top · RSI 42 · price 4,266.45
Contracting range 4245–4288, early Asia broke below its session floor.
Thursday's London selloff to the 4245 week low held twice before a NY spike to 4288.5 faded into lower highs, with firm yields and hawkish Fedspeak keeping gold heavy. Early Asia has slipped below its 4267.8 range floor and the higher-lows line, sitting on the 4264 swing low near the 50% retrace of the spike fib.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,276.00, 4,288.50, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4264 swing low exposes the 4256 higher low, then the 4245 week low
Reclaim of the 4276 asian high returns price to the range and neutralises the break
Lower-highs line near 4280 and the 4288.5 spike high cap the range; 4300 psych sits above
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read